skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> We can't force everyone to stay home for months, the economy would collapse.

You could. Just pay everyone $1000/month until it ends.
The PS2 was where this peaked. It has a weird multi CPU architecture with multiple CPUs and coprocessors, but was popular enough (dominant, really) that devs really invested in some cases. Shadow of the Colossus is a good example.

They tried the same playbook again with the PS3, but paniced when they realized how hard the cell SPEs would be to program to execute shaders effectively and added an Nvidia GPU. The PS3 was not sufficiently more popular than the Xbox 360 to justify the level of investment to really capitalize on the unusual architecture.
I agree, I used 3 months, 1/4, worst year, etc. specifically to show that COVID-19 has to be at least that bad. I agree that it's likely far far worse.
> unless it's someone incompetent.

Unfortunately, Linus is dangerously incompetent at cryptography. As was the case with getrandom(2).

> RE getrandom(2): As Linus said several times, we don't break userspace rule does not apply to security bugs.

I don't think you understand or correctly recall the scenario in which Linus nearly broke getrandom(2). The bug Linus was attempting to fix by breaking getrandom(2) was not a security bug. It was an availability bug, in userspace, caused by broken userspace code deadlocking itself.
Ask HN: Are most mobile dev jobs cross-platform or Native?
In your local job market (I would like to hear from people in all locations) what is the most common tech stack in mobile dev jobs?

Are cross-platform solutions (like React Native) now more popular than platform-specific ones (Swift, Kotlin etc.)?
He's discrediting all other statistics from large dataset, and making a point from the stats of a single cruise ship. Of course, he is aware of that and made it clear in the article. We should not take a passage out of context, which would certainly confuse the crowd.
Have there been any studies on if the virus can mutate?
> Case in point: as of March 17, only 17 people of those who died in Italy were under the age of 50.

Worth pointing out that the available life-saving equipment is being given to young people there, which complicates the simple statistic.
Personally I think 2.2 million is extremely optimistic if we're talking about a worst case where no one reacts to mitigate the spread. But ultimately it seems like we agree that it would be really bad, whether it's 2M bad or 10M bad, so no need to argue about it really.
Exactly. This is what unemployment is for.
Ask HN: How to Disable CSS Transitions?
How to globally disable CSS transitions in Firefox?
That's all well and good for legal immigrants... assuming you can swab babies or something, and can test in minutes instead of days.

What about the hundreds of thousands or millions [0] of illegal border crossings every year at the mexican border though?

[0] Naturally good stats for this are impossible to find, but in FY19 851,508 individuals were apprehended at the american southwest border [1]. It seems reasonable to assume the same order of magnitude of people successfully crossed.

[1] https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration
> China's strategy seems simple enough. Close off borders of a region

Have a couple of issues with your points.

1. China did not close its borders soon enough, even though the government was aware of the possibility of a large scale incident. This led to the virus's spread to every other continent other than Antarctica.
2. China has the "benefit" of a central government with a citizen database where privacy has no consideration. Combine that with mostly vertical housing, it's easy to make sure no one is able to go outside except for those selected to be a resource liaison. This is impossible in a place like California.
>>The 32-bit version is unlimited and you can use it for commercial stuff. The only restriction is that you can't run it on the cloud (whatever that means).

The software license agreement for the 32-bit version specifies non-commercial use, and also still has the software time-out clause where Kx "reserves the right to insert a time-out function into the 32 Bit Kdb+ Software that will cause it to halt after a specific period of time (e.g. two hours), requiring the software to be re-started."[1]

[1] https://kx.com/download/
Can't you say that at least for Italy as a whole, this is killing 2x as many as the worst flu seasons? Italy has a population around ~60 million, law of large numbers makes it impossible to have error bars THAT big. You'd have to assume that Italians have genetic predispositions to die from COVID-19 far higher than the flu.
I just can't imagine an SF landlord passively resigning themselves to not getting paid rent, apocalypse or not.
Even if you are right, in the US almost all old people vote and a small amount of young people do. Guess what that means for politicians? They do what is best for the old. Not to mention a lot of young people don't really want to watch their parents and other elderly family members die en masse so they would probably be against this too.
> Proportionately speaking, that estimate is on par with the amount of American deaths per total population during WW2 and something like 1/7 the American deaths per total population during the civil war.

You think if they had the choice they would have rather sat at home watching netflix?
Read for free:
https://www.nytimes.com./2020/03/19/world/coronavirus-update...
Yep. I keep seeing people saying Korea tested everyone, but they only tested ~0.5% of their population.
> We honestly don't know what's going to happen next

Actually you sort of do. Look at Italy, China, South Korea all of whom have had the virus for a longer period than the US.

And given that US has done too little, too late it's looking a lot more like Italy than China which can't give anybody much reason to hope.
I don’t understand why this is on HN.
And what do you pay the businesses that are closed?
It's okay, once shit really hits the fan the Times or the Post will publish another Op-ed about how its all China's fault for not coming down hard enough to prevent it from spreading.
This doesn't make sense right? As of today, California has 1000 cases.

Even assume the infections double every 4 days, in 8 weeks that gives us: 16.4 millions.

And currently Santa Clara county is in a virtual lockdown, I am wrapping my head how could we reach this number really?
Ask HN: Outreach for Covid-19 longitudinal study proposal?
I'm failing at finding development help for a COVID-19 study initiative. I could use your ideas and critiques.

https://gist.github.com/williamflynt/a1595665b8bf4e30a2a493f...

BACKGROUND:

A small nonprofit called RAIN in Tacoma just bought and set up blood gathering and testing equipment, and they have an antigen test for SARS-CoV-2 ready to go. Sample collection starts next week, with an eye to scaling to many thousands in the Tacoma area. PhDs in immunology, microbiology, and virology are heading up the effort.

They need some technology beyond what they know on the market, and (since it's a nonprofit) they called up volunteers. I'm a volunteer, and I wrote the markdown doc in the gist.

The idea is to make longitudinal studies possible for persons that are tested for COVID-19.

How can I find help to make this happen for our town?
Looking at how China locked down it's cities and how most western politicians reacted including your president. You should not assume how the effect in China and the rest of the world will be same. This is how China controlled the spread
https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM
So, you don’t pass the virus on, but he does? And you think that’s a win?
Thanks for the write-up!

I wonder how TCP BBR would react here. If I understand it right, it wouldn't need RED to back off: the increased latency of buffers filling up would do that automatically. But BBR also wouldn't let the occasional dropped packet make it back off.
and of course, those who on a cruise ship are generally middle-class if not wealthy no-need-to-work people, so projecting that population onto the american population will tend to error, as wealthier people tend to have better medical care and thus less "pre-existing" conditions. On the other hand, for people suffering from chronical or critical disease, it wouldn't make sense for them to take on a cruise trip, where they won't have access to sufficient medical services. Yet, that's quite possible for many of us. Thus the population on the cruise is already healthier than the general population of the same age.
Is it x86?
> if 56% of the population is going to contract coronavirus in the next eight weeks, then the lockdown is pointless. You're nearly to herd immunity at that point

You better lockdown everyone over 60 during those 8 weeks while everyone else gets infected and recovers then, i.e. you need a lockdown
All of these shutdowns are weeks late and the US does not currently have the authority and means to lock down the way eastern countries did.

There are still millions of people going about their day here in LA and nobody will stop them.
There are several factors to consider:

- Temporary measures, once cancelled, will steepen the curve and recreate rapid community spread conditions. This will lead to a number of cycles of pandemic curves and responses as modeled in a number of papers.

- There is insufficient testing in the US to know what's actually happening, or even if serious or critical ILI patients have it.

- The JHU data shows March 20 suddenly leveled off, but this seems like a single, erroneous aberration since that day hasn't finished yet as of writing. [0]

- Until there is a safe and effective vaccine proven to work, there's no realistic alternative except to isolate and not venture out more than absolutely necessary, in small numbers.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
Photo: “corona” crossed out and replaced with “Chinese” in Trump's notes
> You could. Just pay everyone $1000/month until it ends.

Stealth UBI?
Curious to hear from those who have been following the details more closely: was there _any_ legal basis to Levandowski's claims?

It's easy to write him off as an extremely greedy sociopath, but I wonder if he was walking along some precarious line or "loop-hole" that eventually too many attempts to cross bit him in the butt.
Take deaths, multiply by 400 and that's how many cases you have. This comes from the assumption of 1% mortality and 3 weeks to die.

I don't see where 400 comes from.

If we assume that people who died today now are 1% of those who got it 20 days ago, then that is a factor of 100. Project that forward through 4 doublings for the fact that we have about 20 days of doubling every 5 days and we get to a factor of 1600. You can complicate the toy model in a number of ways, but I can't get it as low as 400.

Anyways it is worth pointing out that the curve of reported cases will continue rising for a couple of weeks as people both get symptoms then get sick enough to come to the attention of hospitals. And if the measures work, it won't be obvious from death rates for about 4 weeks. And at that point the critical question is whether we managed to slow the rise, or create an exponential decline.

My bet is that we are only going to get a slow in the rise. Hopefully enough for us to get ahead of the need for emergency treatments.
On mobile its somewhat more fair, but the dev tools, adblock, and other items on mobile are almost always super compromised and locked down by the device manufacturer.
In the civil war people would totally picnic on the hill next to the big fight.
> It's like not letting your kid take their Switch or iPhone with them to timeout.

More like confiscating the entire classrooms iPhones to punish a bully. Said bully then takes his frustration out on the class as entertainment.
> it's possible that the early lockdown in Northern Italy actually increased the number of deaths

So in China the lockdowns stopped the Virus from spreading, but in Italy it increased the spread? If the young are all at home giving it to their grandparents, you think it already spread to almost all young people, at pretty much the same point in time, and then lockdowns started and they gave to elderly who somehow mostly didn't get it before that?

> It's possible that, for some reason, Italians are particularly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. It's possible that the weather pattern or air quality had some strange impact.

If we are considering these as possibilities than we'd better prepare for the U.S. (or any other country) have genetic predispositions or weather patterns that make it even more deadly here than Italy!

I just think my method shows that barring highly unlikely scenarios, this thing is at least 5x as bad as flu, not a lower bound of 0.5 as bad. So we should act accordingly.
I am starting to use such inflated mortality rates as an indicator that the poster/article is either fearmongering or simply not well informed enough to have a worthwhile opinion.
My guess is that we're still short on tests, so only people who most likely have the virus are getting tested.
Very interesting use case for the mirroring feature. It really is super helpful and powerful. Though currently pull mirrors show as activity contributions, so if you mirror a large, active project your commit activity graph will go through the roof (if you care about that sort of thing).
My understanding is that in Italy they are triaging patients and allocating scarce resources to those who are younger and therefore more likely to recover. Apparently they are literally turning away some who are 80 on the grounds that the likelihood of saving them is too low (and they need to use the resources for people who are younger and therefore more savable).

If this is true, it would artificially inflate the percentage of older folks who die, and do the opposite for the stats on younger people.

I learned this from someone who has been heavily researching the COVID situation for months, and whose opinion I trust.
"sort in a useful way" benefits consumer of information

"censoring" benefits someone else

The easy indicator is an ability to control: you can do "Sort by price" to disable sorting, but there is never a "do not censor" checkbox
> N64 was pretty much an upgraded PS1 polygon engine (hardware was SGI dervied like the PS1)

N64 was literally SGI derived, but PS1 was at best "SGI inspired". This comparison overstates the similarities.

> After that Nintendo started using ATI for graphics hardware

Nintendo was using the ArtX designs before ATI bought them. It was a very different design than the native ATI line.
> You'd have armed citizens refuse to leave their homes.

That would be great actually. The problem is armed citizens refusing to stay at home.
This was a good, quick read, but...
TLDR; Social distancing and organized testing (as well as more testing) are required, but neither have yet been well implemented in the US.
Ask HN: Is there way you can covert smartphone to a no contact thermometer?
Wondering is there an infrared dongle that can convert your phone to a no contact thermometer to read body temperature?
In Australia today banks will freeze small business customers' loan repayments for up to six months. If you can extend this to rent and other business repayments then many of them should survive.
American Airlines will use passenger planes for cargo-only flights to Europe
1000 detected cases. Detection is a bottleneck at the moment.
Yes.

Though Americans were probably least affected by WW1 and WW2 of most war participants. Go ask some people in Russia for a better example.
In SF at least it isn't really being enforced unless they absolutely have to. Based on the news Tesla has been the biggest offender so far. Plus people can still legally walk around outside, so the most tangible enforcement would come down to ensuring everyone in public is avoiding people they don't live with.
It's generally a good idea to download the first and last pieces first when doing sequential downloading to ensure that the file doesn't appear too corrupted.

Also, always using sequential downloading isn't very good for the swarm; it means that disproportionately fewer seeders are available for the later chunks of a torrent.

I'd recommend downloading the first episode or two sequentially, but downloading the rest of the torrent normally (or perhaps just first/last parts first).
TBH, it's impossible to 'not double-counting'. We don't live in math.
The staff can be put on unpaid leave since they're getting paid by the government and the rents could be negotiated since the landlord should be getting their mortgage payments paused. I believe those are the main expenses for a brick-and-mortar business.
They totally should not heed to these Whitehouse call of hiding numbers.

The public deserves to know the failure of the govt and it’s officials. Everyone of them should be sacked.
We are going to see the US expand the mandatory lockdown to the whole country soon. I don't think panic is going to help much.
> Burr was one of just three senators who in 2012 opposed the bill that explicitly barred lawmakers and their staff from using nonpublic information for trades and required regular disclosure of those trades. In opposing the bill, Burr argued at the time that insider trading laws already applied to members of Congress. President Barack Obama signed the bill, known as the STOCK Act, that year.

What a piece of work.
Corona is a SARS that jumped over, the scientific name is SARS-CoV-2
That would make things cost a lot more money.

The reality is much of our economy is built off the backs of essentially slave labor. And we're all guilty of benefiting from it.
Not at all, hence the word "encourage" instead of something more absolute like "enforce". The distinction between a "want" and "need" is very tough to make beyond physical reality bound calculations of measurable requirements for survival like calories or materials required to build a shelter that could keep a human alive under adverse environmental conditions. I mean nothing specific like that by the use of the word "need".
They remove massive numbers of products, though. Millions have been removed related to Coronavirus alone:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-battles-counterfeit-mask...
Oh. That's easy Trump will build a wall with CDC budget. ;-)
yeah it would have to, right?
Ask HN: In what ways is civil society challenging shelter in place orders?
In what ways is civil society challenging shelter in place orders?

The City of San Francisco issued a shelter ordering San Franciscans to remain in their homes except for non-essential activities until April 7.

The Governor of California just issued an INDEFINITE order for all citizens of California to shelter in place except essential operatives.

The Prime Minister of Israel issued a time-capped 7 day order for citizens to remain at home and the Order was challenged in courts within hours: https://twitter.com/La__Cuen/status/1240732877794533378?s=20

Yuval Noah Harari tweeted that this was a coup against democracy: https://twitter.com/harari_yuval/status/1240590889174646786

I believe this is progressing too quickly. An indefinite order issued solely by the executive in California is irresponsible.
It should be time-capped just like the municipal order. And it should require the support of the wealth of civil society to extend it:
https://twitter.com/Kinnardian/status/1240850033467146240?s=20
Yes many times. I first visited a decade ago. I remember seeing shit smeared on the walls and ceilings of outhouses. A kid taking a shit on the steps of city hall. Today, they have come a long way in some parts of the country in terms of hygiene. In other parts there has been less progress. I have been to the wet markets in two Chinese provinces, and in other Asian countries as well. How about you?
FireTrump will be a popular hashtag on twitter soon.
Lovely...

Is anybody else at the point of establishing their own digital calendar system? I feel like my main web-based calendar, one lots of people use, is powerful, but mainly in super boring ways. And it's functional, but mainly also in boring ways. It fits more like a generic pair of slacks, than a nice glove.

For example, I think I would cram the interface all the way up, and then slim down from there if needed. I may have some kind of material design-derived interface illness. I look at the interfaces of things like shortwave and ham radios and just think--yes, good, I am a big boy and can tolerate much more info-noise from my calendar display. Heck, cram the latest Get Fuzzy in there. And maybe even complex keyboard shortcuts, shell script integration, the sky's the limit!
I hope no one projects COVID19 onto anyone. What a rude man. Hope he reconsiders.
Well, I assumed they were because they're literally called "Machine Learning Flashcards" and, being what I assumed we're flashcards, I loaded them into Anki, which is for help memorizing concepts.
Yes, but why should you need such a complicated system at all just to order a pizza, whether it needs an install step or not? A simple form, telephone call, etc would do.
It's not necessarily inefficiency.

Eg flush toilets are a great time saver. But they use a lot of water.

If we had a drought tomorrow, we could switch to compost toilets. They are more hassle to use and maintain, but use basically no water.

Which one is more 'efficient' depends on the relative scarcity of water vs time.
It's a creative idea to use hotel space to isolate elderly and other vulnerable groups, but have you gone over how it might fail? Do you have citations or know of experts who recommend this different solution?
Nanohack: Open-Source Respiratory Mask
I wonder if there’s any recourse on the count of resisting arrest. It seems reasonable that someone being framed by the cops might resist arrest.
i think the measures most places have taken are going to reduce the spread significantly(USA, 2000 instead of 2 million deaths), i pray.
That is true. But I think it shows the impossibility of a fatality rate half that of the flu. At least one small Italian town tested every resident, and had 3% positive rate. And more than 80% of cases are unresolved, so many more deaths will come, even from just the cases they've already found.
St. Corona, the patroness of plagues and pandemics
AI library: Automatic training on multiple models, automatic data preprocessing
>It's pretty clear that the current policies are misguided, IMO. The vast majority of those dying are the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions, most of the time, both. THOSE people should be locked down tight and they should receive testing and resources if we are to minimize the death toll.

This seems to be what Sweden is doing, and so far it's working okay. Nice to see a country that's trying to minimise violation of its citizens' right to free movement by only imposing restrictions that have the most "bang for their buck".

Also Korea. From https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mass-testing-school-...: "“South Korea is a democratic republic; we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. Instead, the key to success has been a large, well-organized testing program, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. "
They do that for weapons, ammunition, food, clothing, etc, etc, etc.
USA had 5000 cases in the last 24 hours. It's growing exponentially.
You're not starting at 1 like China did.
It mutated its way from affecting bats to affecting people. Fortunately, the vast, vast majority of mutations either do nothing or make things actively worse.

https://qbrc.swmed.edu/projects/2019ncov_immuneviewer/

That's the chain of mutations for SARS-Cov-2 they've seen so far.
I’m concerned that there is a vast disparity between the number of confirmed cases and the actual number of contracted cases (esp. asymptomatic).

NY has tested the largest number of people out of all states and has >4000 confirmed cases as of March 19th, and it’s _still_ being undertested for relative to countries like South Korea.