skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
This is correct. This is how South Korea stopped it - early testing and isolation followed by contact tracing to test them too.

Think about it this way. The Ro spread factor is somewhere between 2.2 and 3.0 by most reports. People are contagious for 7 to 14 days before they know it. Therefore every infected person spreads a new case only once every 2 to 5 days on average. The problem isn't that the virus is explosively contagious per-interaction (measles is higher), it's that the incubation period is so long across so many interactions.

Cut that recognition time from that 7-14 days to 2, cut off those interactions, and that's how you get Ro below 1 to stop it. That's what South Korea did, by way of both rapid testing and contact tracing to test them too. Reports are that their rapid test gives false positives of up to 10%, but that's okay, a false positive is much less consequential than a false negative.

What jurisdictions in the Western world have the means and will to implement that remains to be seen.
Keep in mind, the number you are talking about is known deaths / known cases.

Neither of these is a final or accurate number: many of the current cases will progress to death, and many who have been (or are) infected have not been tested (e.g. because they were asymptomatic or had only minor symptoms).

Here’s a more careful attempt to determine the numbers for Wuhan (published today) which results in numbers substantially lower (though still scary) than those suggested by the WHO previously https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
Is It Worth the Effort?
Came here to say something similar. The interfaces and tooling around gRPC in the public sphere is pretty bad. If you maintain a code base with multiple languages and want to compile gRPC for it you can choose between:

1. Having a complex build system that is aware of gRPC

2. Massive migraines

Unfortunately build systems integrations, IDE integrations, and generated code is unanimously awful for gRPC.

Every company I've seen use grpc has unfortunately adopted the practice of basically manually running protoc and committing the generated code into repo - sometimes modifying the code manually to make it import successfully (Python).

I hope Bazel evolves into a state where it's usable by the average engineer and has first class support for gRPC.
Careful with those death rates, my guess is that they likely exclude a ton of mildly or asymptomatic patients who never got tested (skewing the death rate upwards).
This simple and brilliant. I hope plans like this are being worked in by those in power.
He can't be wrong because he deftly avoids making any conclusions. All he's expressing is doubt and uncertainty, which is 2/3rds of FUD.

I think it goes without saying that the numbers we have (whichever ones you choose) are wrong, even to an order of magnitude or more. But the responsible, constructive way during an emergency to express a contrarian opinion is by identifying facts and crafting reasoned conclusions. That includes doing enough due diligence to have some reasonable confidence that you understand the premises behind the public authorities' responses. For example, the clean data he wants to see might not even exist. Telling a blind man that he's blind isn't helpful; he knows that and is presumably (hopefully) making decisions accordingly, such as keeping a wide berth to any potential hazards.

Here's a small handful of what we do know, independent of the cold, hard, vanilla statistics on SARS-CoV-2 that we'd all like to have: Italy is experiencing a public health crisis, whether justified by the number of deaths or not; two national lawmakers in Iran have died (how many die annually of seasonal flu?); Wuhan was no joke; initial outbreak in the U.S. so far seems to align with its evolution elsewhere. All these things are also evidence that can and should be part of drafting early responses. These aren't population mortality rates, r0, infection fatality rates, or the like, but evidence nonetheless; evidence that should be heeded in the absence of more concrete quantitative evidence.
> Now imagine that if after 20 years worth of deaths car accidents would just go away on their own.

We don't actually know that will happen with the virus, it could become like the flu and continue killing every year. We hope natural immunity will last but that is far from a given, it may only last months or years. A vaccine is also not a given, it's older brother SARS doesn't have one.

5 billion hosts gives an awful lot of room for mutations to occur, this thing is still in a new environment it's not adapted to.

Then there's the lasting health effects, it's possible it causes permanent lung damage and we have no idea if it leaves any landmines behind like chickenpox does.
This order is very vague with respect to what critical infrastructure and workers entials.

Based on the linked definition, every worker fits into one of the critical business types.
>“The federal government’s not supposed to be out there buying vast amounts of items and then shipping,” Mr. Trump said. “You know, we’re not a shipping clerk.”

Hey, the guys not wrong, he's not a shipping clerk
The China case is no where close to applicable to the US. They specifically locked residents into their houses so they couldn't leave and locked down all transport in and out of the province. We are doing nothing of the sort, which means our spread will be much different.
That's quite easy to do in chrome. Open global settings then set web notifications to block. Then whitelist sites by clicking the lock icon in address bar.
Ironically, in my experience, finance is the field that probably cares most about risk management. That and maybe healthcare (though less than you would think, surprisingly).
> If that is your problem, why don't you just avoid importing typings for libraries?

Yes? That's exactly what people are doing when they import a dependency written in Typescript into a pure JS project.

> A whole lot of the time, especially in Javascript land you will join projects where libraries are being used, and where documentation is lacking. Your advice here is basically to not be part of those projects? Instead of developing and using tooling that will ensure that these situations no longer happen?

My claim is that Typescript does not solve the problem of joining a project with poorly written, undocumented libraries.

I'm not bashing on Typescript. If the primary way you use it is as an organizational tool to reduce cognitive load and make interfaces more explicit, then that's great. You're using Typescript as intended. And there are some scenarios where a compile-time type-checker is just obviously the right tool for the job.

You started this thread by asking how JS devs could manage 3rd-party interfaces without Typescript. I assume you genuinely want an answer to that question. The answer is that for some people on some projects, using well defined interfaces and keeping a reference page open with documentation is about as fast and about as easy as using Typescript, and that following that process doesn't increase their bug count or cognitive load to the point where they feel the need to introduce a compilation step.
First, OpenConnect is just a CDN run by Netflix, they could call it bunny protocol it’s just a name. But, they don’t have unlimited boxes at every ISP, in almost every case you can get P2P connections between specific users with lower network overhead than those users connecting to one of the ISP’s data centers.

Anyway, the CDN knows the connections that are on the network because they are what are connecting to it. Segregating based on large scale network architecture is a solved problem, if you’re confused read up on how CDN’s work. What happens inside each ISP can then be managed either via automation based on ping times etc, or ISP specific rules.

In terms of P2P it’s trivial to include 99% of the data for a movie, but not enough data to actually play the movie. It’s codec specific, but that’s not a problem when you’re designing the service. Ensuring the correct users are part of the network is the basic authentication at the CDN node. That’s what’s keeping the list of active users.

As to data validation, the basic BitTorrent protocol handles most of what your concerned about. Clients have long been able to stream movies with minimal buffering by simply prioritizing traffic. Improving on that baseline is possible as you’re running the service not just accepting random connections and you want to be able to switch resolutions on the fly, but that’s really not a big deal.

PS: And yes, some Netflix content deals would create issues. But, that’s irrelevant to their own content and it’s just another negotiation when negotiating licensing, much like allowing content on a CDN in the first place.
Netflix was never p2p, but BBC iPlayer was when it first launched.
2.8 Million people die in the US every year anyway.
It involves solving and creating "engines", i.e. an app framework, a development platform, a game engine.
Death Loops
I'm guessing you're getting downvoted because the CDC says:

> Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with food. Before preparing or eating food it is important to always wash your hands with soap and water for 20 seconds for general food safety.

But, given that:

1. Takeout food comes in a container which we know can transport the disease, and

2. My local pizza joint has a hard enough time getting a good health department score as it is

I am going to be cooking at home for a while until I have a better idea about how this is going to play out in my own community.
The headline accurately reflects the content of the letter:

> ... We project roughly 56 present of our population - 25.5 million people -- will be infected with the virus over an eight week period.

There is no qualification to that statement.
IANAL, but violating the county orders in the bay area was widely cited as a being a misdemeanor offense. There were also platitudes from law enforcement about "compassionate enforcement", but the potential for punishment is there.
> And he's absolutely wrong, as he's not managing risk, but looking to make the minimum deviance from normal activity.

Disease is not the only risk here. People will die from a severe recession. It's important to realize that there are tradeoffs, and to be sure we're making the right ones.
Yeah, but they had crappy information management.
I live in what I would call a working-class area. Lots of contractors, plumbers, retail workers, restaurant workers, and gig workers. Most of them don't have a lot of savings and a month without work would really mess up their lives.
To be more likely that the next person to get it is already immune requires millions and millions to be exposed. That’s exactly what herd immunity is. So how long will it take millions and millions to get this immunity.
> For example, the conventional name for a variable of type path is pax. You should have a good reason for using any other name for a path.

Ah yes, let's appropriate the Latin word for "peace" and demand everyone use it for paths.

An utterly fanciful take, this. Must be nice to have the time to cultivate and commemorate such a detailed set of principles.
Linus Sebastian from Linus Tech Tips reviewed it here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCWmQbbIFjc
A large part of why things go to hell in hand basket is because so many people believe that things are going to hell in a hand basket.
This is no time for math or common-sense.

Just stay inside, shut up, and be glad we aren’t being overrun by witches like back in Salem. Those were terrible days.. witches everywhere! Thankfully, Quick thinking politicians got rid of them.
Shibori
They aren’t actually going to arrest anyone, but the police are stopping people on the streets and questioning them (not guessing; I know people who have been pulled over). At most, they will hand out citations that will result in a fine. But with a huge number of immigrants in the Bay Area on temporary work visas, there’s a chilling effect that a misdemeanor citation could result in being kicked out of the country ...
15 million in the US seems like a big stretch. But more than a million is plausible if no action is taken and people go about their everyday lives as usual.
> Or that they are authoritarian superhumans with a superior response.

They literally welded doors shut on apartment buildings. They are not superhuman. They just have a different take when it comes to individual rights.

There is no reason to assume the growth rate will taper off in country x like it did in China if country x does not take similar, or equivalent measures.
Blackberry also had tons of brand loyalty as did Nokia, Motorola. I don't know that, ecosystem, and incremental improvements are enough to keep going with how competitive the space is, or they'd be eaten alive by samsung, Microsoft, etc that are also slowly but surely building those same things. And the apple watch is a huge success - and sure, year to hear iPhones are iterative, but look back a few years and it's amazing how far tech has come
Representing Scenes as Neural Radiance Fields for View Synthesis
FWIW, the reason nodes typically don't get to 100% is due to something called WRED (Weighted Random Early Detection). As the outbound/inbound queue on your "node" approaches fullness, it randomly selects packets to drop. This signals TCP on the sender to back-off. The closer to full-ness it gets, the higher the probability (weight), so the sender knows to slow down to the slowest link's speed.

I've written more about this problem here [0].

[0] https://rkeene.org/projects/info/wiki/176
It's had that for at least 7 years. I had the misfortune of having to implement a form with that way back when.

PDF is a horrible set of standards. Abandon hope all ye who have to dive into that spec.
The governor's letter is using a doubling time of 4 days, but there's good reason to believe this 4-day time is due to recently increased testing.

I find this dubious given the widely publicized shortage in tests. Also I question why you are using research from a month and a half ago when there is lots of more recent data to refine those models.

For a back of the envelope, see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/... on a log scale. You'll find a doubling time worldwide very close to what the governor's letter says.

Seems to me the more likely situation is that: (1) there are more cases than we think right now (Maybe not 40x, but maybe 10-20x?). (2) the doubling time will be affected quite A LOT by the measures being put in place. It might drop the R0 to close to 1.

(1) is definitely true given that doctors still can't order a test simply because someone has symptoms of COVID, or even symptoms of COVID and a known exposure route from someone who is positive. (Source, my ex who is a doctor who couldn't get a test for someone today in Orange County.)

(2) is to be strongly hoped for. That is the reason why we are implementing the kinds of lockdowns that we are seeing.
Can you drop sources for your numbers? Thanks!
Let’s hope that works, and that we have enough to go around to hundreds of millions of people around the world.
That's ridiculous, we call it the chinese virus just like the spanish flu was called "spanish flu". It's called that because of it's place of origin.
I really wish the site didn’t hijack my back button:(
Senator dumped stocks after coronavirus meeting: report
The economy is going to shut down a lot harder than this when people start dying in the streets. The health care system will be overwhelmed early. At that point the mortality rate for cv and everything else will shoot up and people will be dying everywhere. You’re thinking, hey, let’s let the old people die, they’re going to die eventually anyway. But it’s going to be a lot more than some soon-to-be-dead anyway people dying. At that point, people will be far too frightened to just go to work like normal, and the normal infrastructure that delivers food, electricity and fuel will break down.
I think doubling time is a bit faster than 5 days from what I have seen elsewhere, and that might change the math to the 25.5M in that time frame.
>This wouldn't need to take more than a month or two.

Two months of this is going to be the beginning of the next depression.
Hamptons food stores ransacked by the wealthy amid coronavirus
I'm not very good at putting a price upon human life, for that is exactly what the equation is.

Still, once you put a price upon a life, you find yourself more open to other equations in which you have that variable and then you start reducing the value of that variable. It's a slippery slope.
30% of the US population still says they are not concerned about the virus, and if you've seen the number of people still interacting as if nothing has changed in many parts of the country you will pretty quickly come to the conclusion that Chinese measures will be impossible to enforce in the US.

Rapid testing and containment and tracing only works if the people actually comply.
I see a lot of replies treating this as an either/or: we all isolate, or none of us do. But that's not the real choice.

People who are elderly or have health conditions that put them at high risk could isolate themselves for the next several months while the virus makes its way through the population. When enough people get it, herd immunity will develop and then those people will be protected. High risk individuals have a personal responsibility to isolate and protect themselves.

I don't know if this is just my community, but I went to the store (out of necessity) twice during the past week or so... and both times it was filled with elderly individuals. It very much made me feel like we were all sacrificing so that the elderly didn't have to.
What i imagine will happen is you’ll have to blow in a tube at CDP checkpoint to get into the country for quite some time
I think I don't fully understand what you are saying, but there have been preliminary trials suggesting that some of these candidate treatments are helpful in treating the disease.
Agreed, and as many as 2.2 million.

No need to make already awful numbers into lies by multiplying by 7.
I think bezos has to show continued dominance - but he's obviously up there. I don't know I'd you can call it for muak without a few decades to see whether his companies stick. Sure, he's changed the conception of electric cars and made low earth orbit really accessible, but as a CEO and leader it's still not clear whether he can lead that revolution long term or if some of his more erratic tendencies will bring things down. Tesla still isn't a stable, well functioning business (and as he veo he just put an awful lot of people at risk with his behavior during the pandemic - look at what's happening in Italy - he defied the rules meant to prevent that. I dont think that sounds like leadership). But in the long run he very could be.
How is no one talking about ID2020?
If you do not need coloured text on your web page (due to coloured diagrams, colour coding, etc) then please do not specify colours at all. (If you do need colours, then ensure that all of the colours are specified.)
With Netflix having content caches this seems like incompetency from the EU commissioner paired with an openness to virtue signaling in this time from Netflix. Isn’t it the job of the ISP to shape the traffic accordingly if they overprovisioned and are now failing their customers due to that?
Containment requires testing. We have lowest amount of testing per capita than any other modern country. Even Italy far exceeds our testing capacity.
Why do people keep saying that panic is bad? Sometimes panic is the appropriate action and is necessary to motivate us to take extreme life saving action.
We have an extreme wealth disparity with many having no savings and no social safety net. We can't force everyone to stay home for months, the economy would collapse.

China maintained draconian levels of control - citizens had cards with their risk level, and were tested frequently when they went to a public space. Have symptoms or some reason to believe you might be infected? You were quarantined from your family and not released until 4+ hours later. If they needed to be kept overnight, they had special hotels to quarantine people in. Citizens there actually listen to what the government tells them to do, and dissent is stamped out. In the states, a lot of people openly don't trust the government.

If we tried to control peoples' lives like that, our citizens would riot. You'd have armed citizens refuse to leave their homes.

They also did things that are unimaginable here - they built an entire hospital in 10 days. They have infrastructure and equipment from SARS that they were able to mobilize.

We aren't China, and we can't accomplish what they've done. Not in eight weeks. We are not prepared for this.
It all depends on what doubling time you assume.
I'm fine with locking down if the government will man up and pause mortgage/rent/larger bills because I can't afford 3 months+ of this because I'll be out on the street.
I think Ioannidis included that very low number as an example of how ridiculous the statistics can look when using the Diamond Princess as a sample and factoring in the relevant sources of uncertainty.

<<Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.>>

Mainly I think he wants more testing, but people are cherry picking his argument to try to downplay the risk.

His key point from the overall piece is something like "we need more testing, including randomly sampled data. Let's not give up on testing while we ratchet up the countermeasures."

Evidence:

Second graph- <<At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.>>

in the middle- <<The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.>>

concluding graph- <<If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.>>

---

Coming from a different angle, the latest estimate from Wuhan is 1.4% (.9-2.1)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7?mod=articl...