skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
"In an email sent Wednesday, the Labor Department instructed state officials to only “provide information using generalities to describe claims levels (very high, large increase)” until the department releases the total number of national claims next Thursday.

The email, which was shared with The New York Times, noted that the reports were monitored closely by financial markets and should therefore remain embargoed. “States should not provide numeric values to the public,” wrote Gay Gilbert, the administrator of the department’s Office of Employment Insurance."

Perhaps reasonable given the market panic atm. But I should add that I am no expert
Hypocognition is a censorship tool that mutes what we can feel
The Outbreak in New York and the Thunder Under the Waves
Completely unrelated but I fell in love with the image compression, black and white + high dither.
GOP senators sold stocks ahead of coronavirus economic crash
I missed that this was urbit, but as soon as I read your post, I said hm, urbit?
You'd still get deadweight losses.

Easier to image with a 1,000,000% tariff: nobody would actually pay the tariff, so there's no dividend to distribute. Yet, you get an economic impact.
Have you tried regular video chats with friends? We've found it helps a good deal.
Companies are free to add them to their accounting already.

Mostly these kinds of risk factors are mentioned verbally in their reports at the moment.
In my Neighborhood, there is street sweeping on Wednesday and Thursday. A couple days ago, the Mayor of LA announced that they won't be giving parking tickets because of the situation. Well, this morning everyone got tickets. It's not that the residents are too lazy to move their cars. This is LA, there is no parking. We only get space if a good chunk of us are at work.

Yeah, let's all stay at Home. But let's also not get punished for it.
The fish / human hand connection
California has 1000 confirmed cases, not actual cases. You can get to 23.5 million if you estimate 10,000 actual cases, with a 5-day doubling time over eight weeks. Experts are estimating 5-6 days doubling.
I might be misreading this, but see graph on page 8 of the report. What I'm proposing is the blue curve.
Yes, it seems deaths are the most reliable indicator we have (though even this is limited [0]). Looking at highly sampled cases (SK and Diamond Princess) seems to indicate a net fatality rate of 1%.

Thinking about the cohort of infections eventually leading to those deaths, though, means we're really getting a snapshot of the number of infections some 19 days ago (5 days incubation, 14 days from symptom to death [1]). With a conservative 6 day doubling period, and assuming still in growth phase, cumulative infections today is roughly 900x cumulative deaths today.

So ballpark for the US (217 deaths) is about 195k current infections.

Spain (831 deaths): 748k infections

Italy (3405 deaths): 3M infections

[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-...

[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...
Yea, having lab experience, I think as long as the equipment, reagents, and consumables are all available, lab techniques scale fairly well. You might be running your scientists ragged between installing the new instruments, keeping all the machines running and prepping assays, but it'll get done.

However, sufficient availability of supplies and equipment for this scale of operation is a pretty big if.
>It would be wise to have multiple sources for any given good, especially if it's essential.

Redundancy is in direct opposition to efficiency. You're always going to move faster and do it cheaper building a singleton, in the non-digital world where there are real costs to duplication.

In driving towards efficiency, redundancy presents no immediate benefit, introduces measurable costs, and so is actively selected against at every stage.

I'm not saying this should be the case. The drawbacks on long time scales are... well, exactly what we're seeing right now. But it does explain the current situation.
I have the PS4 and I hate how long it takes for games and menus and all of that stuff to transition. I just want my N64 back.
>I've read for those who require hospitalization it's a 50% fatality rate

I don't think it's that much, I think that it'd be more in the order of 15% of the people who require hospitalization that actually perish.

Well, until you run out of ventilators, that is...
Not a doctor, but I’m skeptical of the idea that the virus can “burn out” or that we can “starve it.” Is there any scientific evidence to support this theory?

To me it seems like social distancing (“lowering the R0”) can delay propagation but has no effect on the underlying infection rate. It’s hard to see how we are not “delaying the inevitable” with social distancing.

Can anyone clarify this? Sorry if it’s been asked multiple times.
How? They are part of critical infrastructure.
Because it allows the agency to escape from its bad design problems by pushing the (huge) cost onto its clients -- and those clients are other parts of the US Govt or funded by the US Govt.
There is reason to believe that the hospital mask shortage is due in no small part to employee (and patient/family) theft of masks and not necessarily due to dramatically increased need at hospitals (at least not yet).

I say this as a resident physician at an urban hospital in the US. We're now severely low on N95 masks and moderately low on surgical masks but we have only had less than a dozen confirmed covid-19 cases (granted about 100 tested negative cases) so there's no way even 100 additional patients requiring masks suddenly plummeted our stockpiles of masks. Indeed, hospital administration noticed and sent out a mass email imploring employees to return unused masks in personal possession.
If anyone else wants to start a bootleg test lab, there's a disposition auction next week for a defunct biotech startup with most of what you'll need: https://svdisposition.com/auction-detail?id=281
People always project whatever ideology they disagree with onto the moderators. C'est le job. Plenty of accusations go the other way—randomish sample:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22256458

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20438487

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15032682

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15307915

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21588105

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21325122

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15546533

https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=BetterThanSlave

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16397133

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19912334

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20742578

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21803541

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21907232

(sorry...hard to stop)

People also chronically overinterpret whatever they see on HN that they don't like—again, myriads of comments make the opposite generalization to yours. Randomness plus cognitive bias equals narrative.
You are 100% correct. First I don’t think there’s anything wrong with someone making the right choices to obtain something that then becomes valuable at some other point. It’s not bad or evil at all.

But it’s also the optimal solution to handling demand for numerous other reasons. See https://fee.org/articles/let-prices-rise-to-combat-the-coron...
The federal government doesn't have the authority to lockdown the whole country, only the national and state borders. To lockdown the whole country all 50 states would need to individually issue orders, which is unlikely.

I suspect the governors of some rural states are likely to issue weaker social distancing orders, minimizing the economic impact but still benefiting from national economic relief legislation the same as states more severely effected.
All it takes to pause rent, is passing a bill that says so. The reason why landlords can collect rent is because the government will enforce their property right and help them evict tenants who will not.
>Only that the widgets show up at their loading dock every week, and that the shipments have always been reliable in the past, so that there's no reason to look any further.

Just want to add that this same story is playing out at the individual level right now, as well. Milk comes from supermarket shelves, not cows.
Increased China nitrogen dioxide emissions, recovery from Covid-19?
People should have to give up greater degrees of utility to obtain something scarce and valuable, yes. If someone rich gives up more currency to get something then so be it - they built up that currency by creating value for others in the first place.
250 BTC for Gavin's head in a noose.
What would that legislation accomplish?

Companies already bear the costs and benefits of their resilience. So it's already internalised.

You could, however, pass a law that specifically allowed people to charge whatever prices they can get a customer to agree to pay; and ban all laws outlawing such pricing.

That way you would give companies an incentive to be especially resilient in the face of disruptions.

Right now, you are mostly not allowed to sell hand sanitiser for thousand dollars a bottle. So the incentives to become so resilient that you are still producing when everyone else has shut down and you can charge these kinds of prices, is kind of dulled.
What part of "really need" did you not understand?
>the overwhelming sentiment I've been getting from the memeplex is that this situation is entirely the fault of Trump, when he fired Obama's pandemic team.

Also Trump 'dependence on China is a huge problem'.
Spread those over 3 months for flu season, and that's 277 deaths per day.

Fly deaths aren’t evenly spread out like that. There is a definite flu “peak” which then tails off.

It would be safer to assume that your peak is at a minimum of 2-3x the average.
Human Programming Interface
New iPad Pro is available in China, but only 11-inch W-Fi version
https://www.google.com/search?q=Sonarr

https://www.google.com/search?q=Radarr
What are the customers in B2B SaaS and how to deal with them
This doesn’t put a tight clamp on it. We’re not systematically testing and quarantining so this is more akin to a light tap on the breaks. The UK PM wouldn’t even venture end of June as his most optimistic forecast for returning to normalcy. Prepare yourself.
I see a lot of people bickering here in the comments about what's better and why, but does it really matter? I mean I don't care if you like to wear rain boots when it's sunny or flip flops when it's raining, as long as you have some footwear on.

There's many ways a webpage could be programmed/designed/developed/styled but the only thing that really matters is that it's usable and visible to the end-user. No programmer likes every other programmers code when they have to work with it and we all know there's ten different ways to solve the same problem so just let people do it the way they know how as long as you can use/view it with no major issues who cares.
Just adopt the opposite point of view:

You could, by default, have lots of visibility in your supply chain. Or you could get a substantial discount in return for giving up on that visibility.

You are arguing that the discount should be smaller?
> [China] just has a different take when it comes to individual rights.

Yet next door mostly democratic Taiwan started acting on 31st December, and no one’s talking about them because they have prepared well and avoided an outbreak. Most other countries haven’t done so well...
If there ever was a quintessential example of a “first world problem”, this is it right here.
Also interested in why they're better?
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Why not?

I was just reading about Arizona evictions (for, umm, a friend) and it seems the courts are just not going to serve any notices for the foreseeable future so they can't really do anything about it no matter how they feel.

Things will get sorted out, landlords will get a bailout, everyone will be happy.
> On Thursday, Burr came under fire after NPR obtained a secret recording from Feb. 27, in which the lawmaker gave a VIP group at an exclusive social club a much more dire preview of the economic impact of the coronavirus than what he had told the public.

> The luncheon was organized by the Tar Heel Circle, a club for businesses and organizations in North Carolina that are charged up to $10,000 for membership and are promised “interaction with top leaders and staff from Congress, the administration, and the private sector.”
China's response is nearly impossible for any other country to replicate.

The lockdown is every word that true to its literal meaning during that period of time. People are not allowed to leave their own apartment. It is more like national level home arrest than volunteered quarantine.

All policies are enforced through each individual district, roughly equals to each apartment complex, that entering or leaving the complex requires its own passes. Let alone make a mask a requirement for everyone, without which you would put arrested in public.

I don't think any other countries can implement such a strict lockdown really. In California's case, I think the spread will no doubt slow down, but it is not going to be enough to burn out the virus. In the meantime, we need an effective treatment to be deploy to really battle this.

Can't believe this timeline is getting so intense this quickly in 2020, this is history making by everyday...
I remember swapping my PS3 drive for a faster 1TB laptop drive, such a good upgrade. Likewise for sticking an SSD in a PS4, although I never got around to doing that.
Does Sucking Zinc Lozenges Help Fight Off Coronavirus?
Italy's current mortality rate is 8% (3,405 deaths, 41,035 confirmed cases). Of course their lack of testing is probably influencing the numbers somewhat, but still.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-virus-death-toll-on-the-...
China is doing 14-day quarantines for all arrivals -- and this is actual guarded quarantine, not pinky-promise self-quarantine.

There's also a lot of monitoring and risk mitigation in place, so they should be able to catch inevitable slipups (eg medical staff treating remaining patients) pretty early.
Just this hiring season, I still saw positions open...and now this
Tracking Coronavirus: Canada Data
The only thing we've seen so far on the federal level is a measly one-time payment that won't even cover rent for most people who are out of a job. If that's setting expectations of how "everybody will get fed", mine are very low already.
Fuck You!

Go back to your piece of shit communistic state you asshole!
Or, was it to prove that yes, you can live without Flash.
> If a serial killer murders your father, we're going to react differently than if your father dies of a heart attack.

What matters, to me, is that I can no longer speak to a person. How that came about is very, very minor compared to that. Even knowing that we all will die some day does not change the simple, banal, them-shaped gap someone leaves. That gap is what remains, what created it does not. I'm just speaking for myself, but that I do.

How and why people die is no doubt very important when it comes to very removed people using tragedies, which was very much the case with 9/11. For them it's the other way around: the gap never really mattered and is soon utterly forgotten, while that evil deed none of us most forget remains as long as it's useful. I remember families of victims speaking out against war after 9/11, and mostly being ignored by a nation angry on their behalf. The dead were exploited more than honored, if you ask me.
Minor disruptions are common, and so are minor redundancies to deal with them.

It's not a binary 'either redundancy or efficiency'.

Also, brands with a reputation for reliability can and do charge more.
> For example, a "prison town" may have cafes, restaurants, theaters etc with everything being run by this isolated community which is not allowed to be in contact with the rest

What happens if someone commits a crime in a prison town? Double secret prison?
Trump Told Governors to Buy Own Virus Supplies, Then Outbid Them
WHO recipe for viral transport media
Perhaps it is _not_ a good idea?

We don't generally make our roofs asteroid impact proof, either.
> contact tracing and isolation of positive cases

That works if there is a relatively low number of cases, or you have enough testing capability to carpet bomb everyone with tests.

Once the number of cases gets too high, contact tracing has lost, because you have too many unknown cases in the community.

If you can’t test a large percentage of your population, you can’t detect pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic people that are spreading the virus.
No, there is no legal basis for using corporate resources for personal gain. It's not a gray area, it's a bright line.
If this article was dated January I might care.

Everyone in the hospitals from nurses to management knew exactly what is coming but did nothing.

And nothing has even happened yet, wait till the virus actually arrives in a few weeks.

Did any hospital plan or ask for help properly? Did any nurses union raise the issue?

Anyway they have numerous studies from Africa where they can't afford equipment, rather than the lack of planning by people on half a million a year, to look at.
Info and viruses want to be free!
You my friend are a PIECE OF FUCKING SHIT.

Go fuck yourself with your socialistic ideals.
We should have stockpiles for just this sort of situation. They were either inadequately supplied or are sitting on resources.

https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx
The federal government might just get such authority from Congress, if things keep going the way they are.

There would certainly be a lawsuit claiming that it's unconstitutional. It might even win... eventually. You know, back when SCOTUS is in proper session, and it's all kinda moot.
He's not saying "instead", rather he thinks that loss of pension is a useful addition to execution. This doesn't strike me as likely, but then again I don't understand the psychology of serial killers or cops who would plant evidence on someone. I'd also sort of assumed that being sentenced to death for a crime would void any life insurance policies, but I don't know that for sure.
Destruction of Viruses Using Ultrasound
There might not be any foreigners let in at all for a while. I was talking about citizens. Prepare for fundamental erosion of our rights - that one is almost guaranteed now. I won’t be surprised if they go to apple/google and telcos for location data to aggressively backtrack infected. It’s either that or millions of deaths. A perfect zugzwang
Made With ML – Share what you've made with ML
That is not a measure of needs. In other words, needs are not being measured against an objective (numerical) metric.

That is a proposal for a dependency graph of needs. It is explicit in the name: hierarchy.

So no, that theory is not measuring a degree of needs.
It protects them from mass-panic...
I second this recommendation. I use MsgPack over ZeroMQ with a custom RPC protocol. Protobuf, Capn Proto, Flatbuffers are good serialization mechanisms as well. Can't wait until the new Socket Types are out of draft stage.

I believe GRPC is pluggable so if one wanted to invest time in building a GRPC ZeroMQ Transport then that is a feasible route. GRPC bring really good RPC mechanisms to the table.
I'm distracted by how he skirts around so many questions. Especially in the second half. Not sure he means to. I think it's just something people do. I really want to know the actual answer to this. Won't they just have to shut everything down again?

Q: But when they open back up is not like starting over? The total number of cured vs those who can still be infected is still small.

A: The goal is to keep the number infected to a small percentage. In China less than .01% of the population was infected because of the measures they took. Most rich countries should be able to achieve a low level of infections. Some developing countries will not be able to do that.
I keep seeing articles like this pop up. During one of the first coronavirus press conferences, the White House invited CEOs from Walmart, Target, CVS, etc. – presumably to show strength of the private sector.

On the flip side, why can't we enlist money and resources from the private sector to quickly fix some of these supply issues? For example:

- Convert car factories to produce masks and ventilators.

- Convert construction companies to build makeshift hospitals. (Or use hotels.)

- Use tech companies to improve national information access with regards to CV19 testing and track and help patients using their software on their phones to help with contact tracing.

I realize that it's not as simple as pressing a button and instantly converting a factory that makes Teslas into one that makes masks. I also realize there are potential privacy concerns with nationalized information tracking.

But, we're about to enter an unprecedented public health crisis. We have resources that can lessen the impact if we just align and get behind this direction.

I can't help but think we could do more and not just wait for the shortage to happen, and for the curve to spike.

We stockpile enough nukes to basically destroy the whole Earth (exaggeration but you get the idea), but we can't stockpile some ventilators and face masks in case of a pandemic? You can't fight a pandemic with diplomacy. At least you can fight a foreign enemy with that.
Show HN: Contribute what you wouldaspent to help CA businesses survive COVID-19
MBA class of 2020 faces tough summer or worse as recession looms
How to Safe Your Mobile Phone from Thieves?
Definitely, auditing is one way to speed up the process.

Ignoring auditing for a moment:

The trustworthy reputation is quicker to build, if the quality of the product is easy to ascertain quickly.

But if you are a company in a sector where that's not possible, the reputation for quality becomes even more valuable.

And you can potentially ride it out for a long time in an exit scam. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_scam
The state of the earth

The fossil scan is just a sentence or so, not really a significant part of the plot.
I don't agree that it's a false dichotomy.

You have a limited budget and a limited number of employee-hours with which to create and ship a game.

Every hour spent fighting with the platform itself is very literally an hour spent not creating cool and fun stuff.

That time investment would only be worth it if a "novel" platform delivered huge gains in return for time invested. However, IMO we've long passed the point where that's feasible. CPUs and GPUs are very mature at this point: they are the result of decades of evolution and trillions of dollars of R&D.

Inventing your own radically-different, competitive, bespoke architecture for a game console at this point would require an investment orders of magnitude beyond the expected earning potential of these systems.

It also wouldn't be guaranteed to work.
So are we just supposed to accept this as the permanent state of affairs until a vaccine is developed? At worst, complete lockdown... and at best, quarantine any time you cross an international border?
Your source is yet another avenue for deaths to occur without being counted.

My flu and pneumonia data came from https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Check out the disclaimer on that page, too (even routine things like flu and pneumonia, that happen every year, the statistics are really bad until a few years later when all the adjustments are made)

One interview I saw from a CDC modeller last week was using 5-day doubling, 15-day median time to death, and 1% CFR to estimate, and was saying thus that current cases ~= 800x current deaths.

So, yeah, it's clearly more widespread than reported, and clearly all numbers everywhere are totally wrong (including yours and mine)
One of the few true saints.
I'm a Stanford newbie. This is completely believable, but of the stories The Fountain Hopper breaks, what's the accuracy rate?