skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
If you let it go wild is not gonna be a 1% death rate, health care collapses and it suddenly jumps to 5% or higher. With the health system collapsed deaths are not only about COVID-19, but everything else that depends on health care.
Really, what makes you believe so?

IMO, to drive adoption rates, you would need dev evangelists

While the RFC states that they are taking cautious route here.

They also mention that they are not making an SPA which all the cool kids look up to.
Agreed, because that's unthinkable, so lockdowns would be enacted instead. Without any measures taken to limit spread though, that would be the expected result.
Allow me the chance to try and change you mind just a little bit.

The web is one of the most open platforms that has ever existed — period. Since the dawn of the smart phone the web developer has heard the following request: "I need a native app because push messages!". Execs want them, users want them. They literally bang down your door asking for the damn things. Allowing the browser to handle push messages means you can keep your app on this amazing open platform instead of share cropping in some app store.
We have 1000 confirmed cases when most people who have symptoms can't get tests to confirm whether they have it.

That is a long way from having only 1000 cases at present. We are at a significant multiple of that. Estimates of Wuhan at a similar point suggest that they had 7x official figures. We are likely about 5000-10000 in reality.

Now what is the growth? Here is a trivial sanity check. From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/... on a log scale it is clear that reported cases worldwide have been growing by a factor of 10 every 2 weeks. Projecting that out for 8 weeks starting with 1000 gives you 10 million. Starting with our likely 5000-10000 we hit all of California. At which point the limit is not that exponential growth doesn't get us there, but rather that the exponential curve hits saturation and breaks down. At which point you fit to other models based on past epidemics to get an estimate of where it tops out.

Now 63% is in line with projections we've seen for weeks. That's 25 million people. if we believe the recent Lancet estimate that the fatality rate is 0.5-1.5% of people who get it, that is 1.25-3.75 million dead Californians. If we believe more conservative estimates, that's still a lot of dead people no matter how you slice it.
I wonder how much trouble this causes for censys.io as I believe they pull certs based off of ip address requests.
I don't think SARS was eradicated? They were able to contain it and it died out naturally, disappeared. But that doesn't mean the same virus couldn't come back.

I could be wrong but that's how I remember it.
FUCK NEWSOM
Because they won't stay at home.
I'm not sure if SARS is considered eradicated. There were no human cases since 2004 but I don't think we dealt with it in original animal population.

I think we don't get human cases because jumping to humans again is quite hard for SARS.
FUCK YOU LIBERALS
The cost of healthcare for all of the illness even if 100% of the population got the virus this month is less than the economic destruction our self-imposed economic sanctions have already caused even if they ended today.
Economically - if it all happened immediately, probably less than you think given it's mostly concentrated in an older age group past working age.

Second order effects would be huge though and you'd still take all sorts of economic and social hits.

I don't see why democracy would die. Spanish flu was far worse.
Im happy to share wealth for people I love.

Nonetheless I also think that they do factor this in. If your health system breaks down around the world it might become very catastrophic.

And in Italy there have been enough not only old people dying.
I think that California and very soon the whole of US would need to shift to survival of the fittest mode. The US population cannot survive multiple weeks without a paycheck. Any unemployment that is received is just enough to put food on the table but not pay rent.

Some statistics on lower wage workers

* 152 Million people worked in US in Feb 2020

* 16 Million of those in retail (A huge majority of them would be unemployed ~50%)

* 17 Million people worked in Leisure and Hospitality (If bars/restaurants/movie theaters/theme parks/casinos stay closed around 80% of them are unemployed

* 3 Million people work in educational services . With schools and colleges closing a majority of them are unemployed.

Source of data https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

* You can only keep things shutdown until people are either begging on the streets or rioting
Again, based on what? I have seen nowhere near that level of estimate assuming peak hospital overload and unmitigated spread.

Stats from Italy are going to be heavily skewed towards fatalities for a number of reasons that have been documented by epidemiologists.
LIBERALS: FUCK YOU!!

FUCK YOU!

You are fucking over our country!

FUCK YOU!
yes, that's a best guess based on Korea numbers and other countries that have done more extensive testing.

But even if it's 100x, you can't get near 25.5M cases in 8 weeks.
Got the idea from here: https://medium.com/@yishan/free-widespread-testing-is-the-on...
But you have to keep in mind California is going to be an outlier in the number of infections, it has the highest population density in the country. Los Angeles County alone has more people in it than most US states.
liberals
Note that China implemented a draconian lockdown in Wuhan beginning on Jan 22nd, with 571 confirmed cases.

By Jan 25th, China declared a Level 1 Health Emergency in 30 out of 31 provinces, and began locking down other provinces.

On Jan 26th, China cancelled all inter-province bus service.

On Jan 30th, China closed the highways between provinces.

Also, all of this nicely coincided with the lunar new year holiday, when the vast majority of the country is already on holiday for 2 weeks, and not going to work, or school.

It's not really comparable.
I don’t think it’s honest for these reports that accompany executive decrees to not take into account the reality on the ground.

This report assumes “business as usual” whereas the reality is people absolutely are social distancing. Therefore any data submitted to the public as the rationale behind a decision should reflect that: the numbers report should indicate the projection based off of the current Bay Area shutdown and the general self-isolation and self-distancing that is in effect to make its point.
The ER docs at my wife’s hospital this morning were wearing pediatric masks with Disney characters emblazoned on them. And this is in a major suburban hospital.
I wonder if there is modeling related to global warming that pertains to this kind of conversation.

It's possible that a massive global economic slowdown could help solve the collective action problems there a bit, right? Maybe the spirit of cooperation necessary to achieve "war time" resistance to the pandemic can seamlessly transition into building a new economy that's more sustainable?
Also it can infect other mammals quite easily. It originated in bats. There might be other animal reservoirs as well.
Snakemake – Workflow Management System
That's a good point. I remember some of the chests being fun to get, though I never bothered to get all of them because there's really no reward besides the extra challenge. I know that's what I'm asking for, but it always felt like a waste of time.
Risky hack could double access to ventilators
E-paper is ideal, but even a UI like this for old phones/tablets would be cool to have on my desk.
thanks for fucking over the economy you fucking ass liberal fucks!
> Chat is probably one of the only functionalities that are still better served by an ad-hoc app

Yes, actually, IRC works better for chat, I think. Actually, it is probably true of some other stuff too, such as many kind of multiplayer games; you could use a telnet (or SSH) session.
Schrödingerona's virus
I run a remote-first consulting company. So far everything is good. My clients are all pushing me to work for them. I even signed and started a new contract in the middle of all this. That said, it is unsettling to watch the world crumble around me while my business is growing.
Not with music though.
81k is what they reported. The CCP isn’t trustworthy.
If you don’t think lives are ruined you need to get off your high horse. Not everyone is a software engineer that can WFH. Service industries are being hit hard, restaurants, hotels, airlines, etc. Even manufacturers like auto makers are shutting down. How do you suppose these affected people pay their rent.

And when we get kicked into the man made depression two weeks from now, anyone that doesn’t already have savings and wealths, their lives are ruined.

And that’s gonna be much more than 1 or even 5 percent of the population
Based on the death rates in Wuhan and in Italy where this actually happened.
I don't see any scenario where you could hit 60% of the population that fast.

I mean sure, if you held up the same R0, yes, that math works out, but people aren't trees. They'll voluntarily socially distance, dropping R0 significantly.
Why did we give up on containment?

China and South Korea have shown that it's possible. China capped out at only 100k infected for a population of 1.4 billion.

Aiming to let 56% of your population get infected of which more than 3% will die is NOT the solution.

China's strategy seems simple enough. Close off borders of a region, stamp out all existing cases with aggressive testing, then keep the region at 0 cases by requiring mandatory 2 week quarantine before letting anyone in. Do this one region at a time until your country is all clean. Now their biggest problem is teaching the rest of the world this strategy.
Linux administration skills are going to be in abundance once the COVID-19 threat has passed.

Might also be a good opportunity for trying out some community and mesh network software.
Many inmates aren't in isolation, but rather, are in dorm-style pods without sufficient separation, or in a small cell with one other person (and in cases of overcrowding, more than one)
This. OP should be flagged. It's pure flamebait politics.
We are, literally, nature.
The best model I have seen so far is:

Take deaths, multiply by 400 and that's how many cases you have. This comes from the assumption of 1% mortality and 3 weeks to die.

So CA has ~8000. A doubling time is ~5 days. 8 weeks ~= 11 doublings. So 8000 * 2048 = 16M. Not too far off for a ballpark. Obviously, the exponential starts to breakdown somewhere... but where?

I don't think it's fear mongering. It's getting the public to understand the back of the envelope worst case... which is really bad. People NEED to panic... to get them to hunker down and take this seriously. The sooner than happens, the sooner we get it under control.

I had to yell at my inlaws to stop taking the train to work and going to the gym. They are 70 and have pre-existing conditions. This action will force them to take it seriously.
No, it doesn’t seem weird. US jails are high density, low sanitation, often lack basic things like soap and running water, and have famously low standards of medical care even outside of pandemics.

It’s the worst possible place for anyone to be in a situation like this.

When this hits jails, very nearly everyone in the jails will be exposed, and the death rates are likely to be roughly equivalent to the critical case rates (>15%).

A more cynical person might claim that the people responsible for allocating medical resources and oversight to prisons see this as a generally desirable outcome; the system working as intended. (Jails in the US disproportionately hold nonwhite people.)
If you have an Apple developer account the app is relatively simple to build and install with your own profile.
When we run out of ICU capacity the fatality rate goes up a lot.
> As pointed out below[0], this is a sensationalist headline and should be changed.

The title was based on the entirety of the linked content — the letter from the CA governor to the president — which included no context around the numbers being based on no measures being taken.
Any government is an occupying force for the society, by it's very nature.
It's a lot easier to print money and work to get a hold on inflation than it is to bring someone back from the dead.
0.05% is just ridiculous. That's half the death rate of the flu, so the only way he can justify a number like that is if he believes we are missing the VAST majority of all cases (due to them being mild) and only seeing the severe ones / deaths. But there's a simple check to this - how many deaths does Italy have per day in a bad flu season vs how many Covid-19 deaths per day are they having now? Worst flu year on record I could find for Italy was 25,000 deaths (average year ~15,000 deaths). Spread those over 3 months for flu season, and that's 277 deaths per day. Italy had 475 deaths yesterday from Covid-19. Even if you assumed EVERY Italian has contracted Covid-19, death rate would have to be at least 2x the flu. Now, think about how the majority (80%?) of deaths in Italy are in the Lombardy region, which has maybe 1/4 the population, and thus 1/4 the flu deaths per year. Now it's clear Covid-19 must have fatality rate at least 5-6 times worse than the flu, even assuming every Italian has it...

Edit:

Flu mortality stats for Italy: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...

Covid-19 deaths per day in Italy: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
Wow you weren’t kidding, it completely exhausted mobile safari’s history stack on the very first scroll with dozens of entries to the same headers. Super broken web experience, and it’s advertising a browser!
So when people are talking about eradicating the coronavirus, they also mean in the animal population?

Seems to me that the virus that can spread among humans is a different version than the one common among the animal population.
The order is essentially meaningless without further refinement. "critical workers" includes essentially any commercial retail

https://www.cisa.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors

>The Commercial Facilities Sector consists of eight subsectors:

Entertainment and Media (e.g., motion picture studios, broadcast media).
Gaming (e.g., casinos).
Lodging (e.g., hotels, motels, conference centers).
Outdoor Events (e.g., theme and amusement parks, fairs, campgrounds, parades).
Public Assembly (e.g., arenas, stadiums, aquariums, zoos, museums, convention centers).
Real Estate (e.g., office and apartment buildings, condominiums, mixed use facilities, self-storage).
Retail (e.g., retail centers and districts, shopping malls).
Sports Leagues (e.g., professional sports leagues and federations).
>2008 crash to protect older people

I had no idea they had audited the age of the bankers who caused that mess. Only one I'm aware of was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Leeson who brought down an entire bank at the age of 25.

As for your darwinistic-eugenics as an old person, sure I'm happy with that, but the question is - would you be happy with that when your older and somebody else's kids suggests the same thing. Not that easy to answer.

But whatever age people are, the penchant to begrudge the age groups above them to varying degrees and reasons tends to be strong, at least until they reach their 40's. At least that is what I have observed from many years of experience of many age ranges.

> In an ideal world we would not need to make choices like this, but the choice is real and we can't fumble it.

I suspect the film Logan's Run would be worth a watch if you have not seen it. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074812/

Oh I'd also add, we have not seen results of sterility post infection - that data might change your perspective if we end up finding out that the chances of becoming sterile due to infection of this are high. Which is still an unknown and not to be ruled out.
Understandable, but since there's been clarification, I think that should be reflected in the title.
> At some point we do have to consider that shutting down the majority of the economy will ruin more lives than letting the virus infect everyone.

At $10M/life, 1M deaths in the US is a $10 trillion cost. That's 50% of GDP - I fail to see how it can't be cheaper to "shut down the economy" (a term I find quite hyperbolic anyway) for a month.
Why not look up the solution online? If the challenge is making your experience worse, it seems like an okay thing to do in my opinion.
Regardless of if they make a profit, they saw a discrepancy between current prices and what they considered more accurate prices and to the extent they made a profit they were correct. There is still the huge benefit that now these masks will be purchased in more reasonable quantities by customers, ensuring more people get the masks they need.
Also no ctrl+f find.

One of the many reasons I use Amazon via browser and not app. Also open link in new window so you don't lose state, compare easily and much much more.
Thank you for posting this. Documentaries like these shed light on the saints that exist in this world.
I haven't seen this reported elsewhere:

The executive order at https://covid19.ca.gov/img/N-33-20.pdf cites Government Law 8665 to enforce itself, which reads:

CA Govt Code § 8665 (2017)

Any person who violates any of the provisions of this chapter or who refuses or willfully neglects to obey any lawful order or regulation promulgated or issued as provided in this chapter, shall be guilty of a misdemeanor and, upon conviction thereof, shall be punishable by a fine of not to exceed one thousand dollars ($1,000) or by imprisonment for not to exceed six months or by both such fine and imprisonment.

Six months of jail time and $1,000 is what they are threatening us with.
> wasn’t scramming the reactor too quickly a crucial part of the incident?

Scramming and then having no procedure for a rapid restart, yes. But that's not a reactor safety incident.
Pharmacies, Banks, Grocery stores and takeout restaurants will continue to operate.
The headline is not true and really does fall under "fake news" this is what happens if no one does anything. Sensationalist and unnecessary
I still get more robo calls on landlines than on my cell. Conveniently, my cell is in a different area code from where I live, so even easy to spot the bad ones. And I have never gotten an unsolicited text. That wasn't a wrong number.
Also - “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess.”

― Ronald H. Coase
It may just be simply too late. Everybody was still partying all over California 6 days ago
1. I think nearly everyone besides WHO has the consensus that China’s released numbers is too low, especially when you compare it to the numbers from Italy and South Korea. Whether that’s due to corruption or the swamped hospitals and a lack of test kits in the beginning is debatable.

2. This white paper may explain Newsom’s numbers.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

The growth is exponential and not linear which throws off most people. Surprisingly, even though the paper’s R0 is on the conservative side (2.2-2.4) and so is their case fatality rate. However, their simulations still predict 2.2 million deaths in the US if there’s no gov intervention for social distancing
Except it’s significantly less than 1%.

You should find the actuarial tables and life expectancies for an 80 year old. It ain’t sunshine and rainbows.
If you don't have an "essential job" like working at a hospital, grocery store, power company, etc. You're allowed to go outside and walk in your neighborhood, but apparently the police will enforce it (probably just at ticket) if you're out for a non-essential reason. They also forcibly closed all gun stores in the state.

It's not martial law to the letter, but it's damned close.
Thanks Matt. I just launched and am building the marketplace. I am generally against astroturfing but I understand what you mean. I will likely ask my network to create profiles and jobs there so at least then the few I have will be legit.
I'd rather you be serious and address the very real trade-offs of shutting down one of the world's largest economies for a long period of time. We cannot pretend there won't be consequences.
That's the silver lining here. With sheriffs and legislators not enforcing evictions, we can pretty much squat in our apartments until the situation changes if rent money completely dries up. The landlords are out-numbered by the tenants and can't reasonably expect to find another tenant while on lockdown.

The lessors won't take not receiving rent quietly, and will certainly pull every card to threaten tenants, but they're ultimately empty threats. The landlords' hands are tied.
"you need to stay home if X OR Y" is the safe bet, but it's not always required, sometimes one thing preempts (invalidates) another. I'm not sure if that happens in this case or not though.

Consult a lawyer via telephone if it matters I guess.
I think people are oblivious to some obvious ways our system operates.

Wealthy people have power.

It takes time to accrue wealth, most wealthy people are old.

Coronavirus kills 10% of 80+, and 5% of all 65+.

Old people vote.

If the hospital systems are overwhelmed because we don't flatten the curve, those percentages likely double or triple.

Look at how much we've learned about treating this virus in the 3-ish months we've been paying it the attention it deserves. If we slow it for another month, maybe these percentages could be cut in half.
> How many people do you figure are going to get rolled back into poverty at 15% world GDP loss?

A whole lot, but they'll get back to parity (on average) in about 6 years, assuming a 2.5% GDP growth. How many dead people do you think will come back to life after six years, in comparison?

I don't want to be glib, but I genuinely don't think you've thought this through. I just can't see a moral argument for allowing a 10M+ death count at the kind of economic impact we're talking about right now.
Most people harassed by the police don’t have even $5000.

Furthermore, ifwhen they win, the money paid out as settlement/judgement comes from local taxpayers via the city, not the cop. It’s not legally possible to sue an individual cop for violating your rights, so the individual cop in question suffers no real consequences.

There is also the history of the incredibly harsh retaliation by other cops against people who bring evidence to light against cops:

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/13/18253848/eric-garner-foot...
Permanent respiratory damage in ~2% of survivors is catastrophic as well.
Perhaps pedantic, but these were inmates in jail, not prison. (at least in the US criminal justice system, the difference refers to whether or not they have been convicted and are subject to long-term confinement)
Remember the massive inflation in the 70s? We survived.
The best thing about this article are the comments, which are obviously written by the "mini-madoff" himself. So yeah, read the article first and then read the four comments, three of which are ostensibly from different accounts but all obviously written by the subject of the article. It is pretty funny, actually because in those sock puppet comments he comes off as exactly the same person described by the article.