skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Urbit is a cool idea and I resonate with its motivation but I fundamentally disagree with its execution.

The fact that we have bad platforms does not imply that we have bad systems or bad protocols. I think the rotten core of the bad-ness of the internet is commercial infrastructure. It's prohibitively expensive for users to truly own the most basic commodities of internet infrastructure, i.e names (DNS), numbers (IP) and peers (BGP). These commodities would enable users to make the most of the protocols that we already have.

There are already many projects that try to combat the commercialization of the internet by adding new systems and protocols (Solid, IPFS and ActivityPub come to mind). Users shouldn't only be free within the confines of these systems - they should be first class nodes on THE network.

The spirit of Urbit is spot on but it's at the wrong layer of the OSI model. I have much more faith in people who are trying to operate public networks (i.e NYCMesh) and would like to see more projects that aim to de-centralize the basic commodities of the internet.
1:. We have already lost trillions of dollars

2: 12 months of not actually living is already giving up about 1.3% of the life of our whole population, and that's not counting the health problems caused by poverty or the mental health cost of eternal social isolation.

3:. There is no believable model where 100% of the population gets the illness. Even the absurdly pessimistic models end up at 60-70%

4: the models that assume nearly everyone gets sick require that there are already many, many, many undetected cases, which makes severity and mortality much lower than is being otherwise imagined

5:. This will sound callous, but 99% of fatal cases involve folks with other serious chronic illness, and at least 80% (good numbers are hard to find) are past retirement age. Though these people add.much value and happiness to our world, they aren't going to produce much more economic productivity. This doesn't mean they don't matter, but we were having a discussion on economics
Those sophisticated people were correct, at least for now (never say never). Teleoperation can work in some limited specific circumstances. But latency, reliability, and coverage of current wireless data networks are insufficient to allow for widespread teleoperation on public roads.
We only have lagging indicators by about a week or more.

It takes people at least a day, and usually a few days to get sick. A little while longer for them to go to the hospital (if they go at all -- most don't because it's usually mild). Then testing, if it happens at all, takes a few days.
I think you mean
https://xkcd.com/605/
Sure, but who first?
The point is that just because you don't want most sites to use these features doesn't mean that no use exists. I just want to make sure I don't get nag notifications begging me to turn it on every time I visit a news site.

Notifications? I need those from my calendar app and chat app.

Badges? Messaging systems I use rarely but which are important.

Visibility? I want resource intensive apps to "sleep" when not in use.

USB? I want an Arduino web ide to be able to communicate with hardware.

Screen lock? I don't want the machine to go into sleep mode when I'm presenting a slide deck.

Key lock? I don't want the browser intercepting keystrokes in my word processor or SSH session.
Stanford Student Claims to Run Bootleg Covid-19 Testing Lab
I have a lot of books. I like to read books. I also have books with blank striped paper for writing my own notes.
Well, the thing is that interview calls are based almost entirely on resume and cover letter quality, not so much the skills. A hard requirement is that they should understand how case-sensitive and punctuation works, and many applicants can't even get their name in proper Name Case. Feedback is, well, if you school for 11 years and still can't use grammar where it matters, I'm not sure it helps. But too many do this.

We did reject one smart guy for an Angular post, because his only technical skill was WordPress and the gap for that is just too big. But we interviewed people with experience with only PHP and no JS. Skills are learnable.

There's also weird stuff like rejecting people because their expected salary is too low. It's a pattern that those with low salary expectations performed worse technically than juniors.

0% callback is also rare because of that. I got my first, web dev job, with no experience in anything other than HTML and an EE degree. Rejection rates for a role are 100% until the first hire.
You're technically correct. However, to a large number of people it not only appears novel, it is ambiguous for ~40% of dates of the year with their native format (MM/DD/YYYY). Even if it's convenient for the majority, it may cause so much friction for the minority that it's not worth using anymore.

My native format is mdy but I dislike it almost as much as dmy.
Play multiplayer games
Browsers usually have fairly strong security models, since they are expected to constantly run untrusted code (which has nothing to do with web app security, FWIW). Apps rarely get this kind of scrutiny and often don't (Android) or can't (iOS) employ features that browsers can to do, such as multiple processes.
For sure, to have an accurate number you need to wait until all cases resolved AND you need to have thorough testing to know what the total number of cases were. Good to see that it may not have been quite as bad as thought in Wuhan. That said, they did enact pretty strict quarantine measures there and massively surged hospital capacity, so it's not like that number represents total healthcare collapse either. Regardless, to me it seems to great to just say it's outweighed by the costs of control measures, especially since there is another path to take.
> we are missing the VAST majority of all cases (due to them being mild) and only seeing the severe ones / deaths

This is entirely possible, and is the conclusion of a different, unrelated paper published today. [0]

> But there's a simple check to this - how many deaths does Italy have per day in a bad flu season vs how many Covid-19 deaths per day are they having now?

This is a good idea, and a reasonable metric, but it's not a good way to compare the CFR, because there are too many confounding factors.

For example, it's possible that the early lockdown in Northern Italy actually increased the number of deaths by expanding the window of exposure to elderly populations (whose younger relatives normally would have been out of the house all day). It's possible that, for some reason, Italians are particularly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. It's possible that the weather pattern or air quality had some strange impact.

I'm not saying any of these things are true; I'm saying that it's not a great way to compare CFRs or speculate about the number of mild or asymptomatic cases.

0: https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepareInsteadOfPanic/comments/fljz...
I think you underestimate the length of the flu season and the numbers for COVID-19 are therefore much worse. At least 4 months, but really 5 with one of them more mild so 4.5 months for the flu season. Also we should use the average year since harsh flu years have been newsworthy tragedies in their own right. So 111 per day in all Italy. Lombardia is about 16.3% of the population (wikipedia.it), and has about 50% of the deaths (repubblica.it). So it is roughly 235/16.3 , or 13x worse (edit: number changed because Italian flu average is only 8000 per official source below), so roughly (235/9.65) 24x more than flu once healthcare is overrrun by my best estimate.

However flu does not overwhelm ICU and there are tangential deaths from lack of available healthcare which might double these numbers. Who knows, but it not going to be insignificant at all.

edit: In fact I see Italy counts flu season from October to February inclusive, so I think my estimate is correct.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/sorveglianza-mortalit...
Most torrent clients have a "download in sequential order as far as feasible" feature, addressing the first issue.
Generally the HN style has been to actively editorialize to tone down sensationalism, even if the linked title or content is sensationalist.
> Higher prices encourage a balance of needs and responsible budgeting so individual cells don't simply take all that is available to the detriment of the organism as a whole.

Aren't you making a fairly unreasonable assumption that need is also accompanied by ability to pay elevated prices?
~30% of the population has little reason to fear an infection. That 0.2% risk of death for people under 40 largely includes people with significant underlying heath problems. At least assuming a functional healthcare system etc.

My mother on the other hand is looking at possibly months of near total isolation. At her age it’s a much larger threat.
No, it does not. Your argument is plausible as an estimator of the CFR, but cannot be used to establish a lower bound.

One reason for that is that you cannot examine just one locality. Some will be high, some will be low -- fluctuations are just the nature of statistics. It is necessary to average the hot spots and the cold spots to estimate accurately.

Basically, this is a really hard problem and the error bars are far larger than most people realize, especially in the media.
If the governor is assuming exponential growth, what's the doubling time? From the formula:

N(t) = N0*2exp(t/Td)

where:

- N(t) is the final count (25.5M)

- N0 is the initial count (1040 according to Johns Hopkins)

- t is the time (8 weeks)

- Td is the doubling time (TBD)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doubling_time

Solving for Td:

Td = t/(ln(N(t)/N0)

Plugging in the numbers, I get Td = 0.8 weeks, or 5.6 days.
edit is not working. I meant my native format is mdy.
Workers aren't allowed to work but landlords are still allowed to collect rent.
> However, because of a strong societal preference for saving children, the Task Force recommended that young age may be considered as a tie-breaking criterion in limited circumstances.

This document has really fascinated me. It exists as a codification of our societal values when we are forced to triage who will live and who will die.
It's going to be a recession, certainly. In the Great Depression there weren't significant stimulus measures taken though, until the stimulus provided by the war. Governments have already made it clear they're going to throw a lot of resources at the economic side of this, so I expect a couple months would be really bad, and some businesses will definitely fail (some already have), but not Depression level bad.
You're not wrong, there is a small possibility that this virus does continuously mutate to keep us from becoming immune, and that we don't find a vaccine or a cure.

If so we're pretty thoroughly fucked. We aren't going to manage to wipe out this virus by shutting down the developed worlds economy's because the rest of the world (especially warzones and the like) isn't capable of doing the same. We can't keep the economy shut down forever to prevent spread in the developed world and not all starve to death.

I'd argue that the best response should that turn out to be true is to pour more resources into medical research until we do find a vaccine... which rather requires having functional stable economies instead of us all going bankrupt because we shut them down.
Local officials hid information because nobody wants to be the bearer of bad news. This is an ancient tradition in China.

Once the news bubbled up to smart people at the top who understood math, their reaction reversed.

There is no way that if people at the top had known what was really going on, they would have let the Moon festival happen.
"60 seconds and fill out a damn web form" that demands you submit a government-issued photo ID and selfie? Hell no.
I run ~3 miles every day on the treadmill and dislike just about every minute of it. If i can get a fun gamified workout in the same amount of time that sounds way better.
What ISP? Maybe they have bad peering because they use peering as a revenue source (cough Telekom).
It's highly unlikely those losing paychecks now will be starving on the streets since measures are being considered about missing paychecks already and society is not at all in a complete breakdown mode. Supply chains are still running at 100% capacity. Everybody will get fed.

However, if hospitals are completely overrun with uncontrolled spread, along with virus related deaths (1% to whatever), normal hospital cases of heart attacks, strokes, cancer, accidents etc will result in straight death too. Health services were already struggling to cope with those cases alone before the virus hit. Total death toll would be an almost guaranteed disaster. Any economic downturn of lockdown will seem a barely perceptible blip atop that body count. Lockdown naysayers need to get a grip on reality.
What exactly is the alternative to democracy? Are we suddenly going to become authoritarian? Are you suggesting that we will devolve into anarchy, branch off into warring clans of hunter-gatherer's, substance farmers, and roving gangs of bandits?
In this case, the primary motivation is to light a fire under POTUS'es rear-end with concrete data and matter-of-fact worst-case scenarios. It may only be secondarily clickbaity to increase pressure on POTUS. These are decent and respectable motives to get ahead of a crisis.
If we all just stay in our houses forever, we all die anyway.

Might as well risk living before we die.
You could attempt to disinfect the container but I weaned myself off fast-food few weeks ago in anticipation of a pandemic. :-)
Most coronavirus victims were already in poor health. So your analysis is double-counting.
Who made the Minecraft paintings? [video]
yeah, I had the same issue and used a few markdown editors and landed on JOPLIN. Joplin has some good integration with online backups and semi-decent encryption setup.

notable was quite impressive until *(Notable was originally released as open-source but newer versions of it are no longer open-source.) and for apps I use often I try to keep them FOSS.
And the answer is: zero empathy.
From a systemic perspective, it never really made sense for lots of consumers to be buying multiple consoles. Sure, the N64 and PS1 were good at different things, but you could have built a super-console with most of the advantages of both for less than the combined cost of an N64 and PS1. And then games could use both N64 and Playstation features simultaneously.

The reason for owning multiple consoles, then and now, is to play exclusives. And yes, it totally creates e-waste, but what are you going to do about it?

Exclusives have always been anti-consumer.
I believe that even in young people, 16-20% will need hospital admission/intervention.

That's a lot of people, and how many of those can we expect to have health insurance?
Well regardless of whether if Be or NeXT was chosen, Apple was very close to becoming bankrupt in 1997 and without the Microsoft $100M investment in Apple shares, I'm not sure if Apple would be here anyway without it even with Jobs being on board.

Apple lost their lawsuits against Microsoft and had to compromise with a deal with Bill Gates to save themselves. It was at that point Microsoft could have refused at the time and Apple would simply be relegated to the history books.

You have to thank Gates for saving Apple because Jobs did too. [0]

[0] https://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/18/08/06/august-6-1...
I have a hard time believing anything coming out of China these days.
A nod to the graciousness of England, not just for accepting him as a refugee, but for those former military enemies and chemical warfare competitors, who actively helped him by offering a position at Cambridge:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fritz_Haber#Death
I've seen that before, it has some good points. I don't think an experienced person has to - or always does - get like I described. But it does happen.

The question was "why higher less senior people?" My answer, and perhaps I wasn't clear, was that for your first 1-5 devs, you should definitely higher senior...but once you break past that then your senior devs - you know the ones who launched all that boring technology - then want Jr devs to mold into doing things the right way from the start.
> The lessors won't take not receiving rent quietly, and will certainly pull every card to threaten tenants, but they're ultimately empty threats. The landlords' hands are tied.

Or...they'll just resign themselves to "we're all in this together" and accept they will have to suffer a bit too.
Of course there is a trade-off - why do you think that aircraft are still flying right now. Things didn't stop instantly and in many avenues, have still not stopped.

What is an economy, the generation and circulation of money. Then offset with humans and they reproduce and circulate.

However, whilst not all economic aspects are equal, human life is. Hence you will see essential aspects of the economy maintained and less essential will either ride it out, evolve or expire - including what may well be, older businesses as well as young ones.

let us not forget, some businesses are very dynamic and volatile at the best of times, restaurants being the classic example. Casualties of human life and economic are inevitable and with that, each country has a different plan, though mostly stimulus and loans.

However, fear has and will do more damage to the economy than this virus and if you do not have shutdowns, that fear will only rise - so yes it is a fine balance with much minutia.
> The vast majority of those dying are the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions.

That’s true of deaths but not hospitalizations: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-...

The hospitalization rate is believed to be 10-20% and much less specific to people over 65 or even 50.
I think GP was suggesting that the letter is itself not sensationalist, and thus neither is the title as it accurately reflects the content linked, and thus it is fine as-is.

I agree, it is a reasonable statement and reasonable projection (within an order of magnitude) that reflects the gravity of the situation. A lot of people don’t seem to realize just how big this is about to become.
North Korea is a tiny dictatorship that has pretty much zero impact on my day-to-day or even month-to-month life.

On the other hand, the fingers of the US are everywhere I turn.
Hi, long time liquid text user here. I’ve been asking for this simple feature forever but it’s never been implemented. Can we just create a dang blank document? I know we can import documents and webpages, but how hard would it be to just let us start off with a blank paged document without having to import something?
Is it not a prescription-only medication (as it is in Australia)? That might be a potential solution to her predicament.
So this means people like us would have the competitive advantage for these sorts of business opportunities.
This article is great and I can certainly relate. I adore the Spelunky book and have watched many of Derek’s talk that are floating around YouTube. His stories reflect actual relatable experience for indie developers that a great GDC talk from devs at AAA (heck, even middle card) studios don’t quite capture.
Which I think is roughly what the numbers have been showing so far--debatably an upper bound, given the under-availability of testing.
And Google is abandoning updates to chromebooks, just as they abandon their "beta" products.
Reminds me why I love my ISP. My residential fiber ISP in Rochester New York, Greenlight Networks, decided to give everyone symmetric upload connections for free upgrade in the name of Corona Virus (used to be 10:1 download:upload). So now I have a 1gbps symmetric for only $100/mo as their mid-tier option. They even have a 2gbps symmetric option also. That is how ISPs should be handling this.
My comment didn’t suggest otherwise. I was referring to both treatments and vaccines.
No doubt he is capable.

I think he'll end up somewhere and just fine. Someone will be willing to take a chance on him.

Personally I'm not smart enough / likely to end up working with him. But just for the sake of argument if I was I would be wary.

He took all that stuff with him... that no doubt included the work of people around him, and that showed a lot of disregard not just for his employer, but his peers. I could 'understand' if someone had a problem with their employer (still a bad choice!), but the disregard for his coworkers to me signals something else as far as his moral / ethical choices / standards... if there are any.

Do you trust that guy not just to walk off with your work, but to even represent it accurately to others? Have your back when you need it? Not sure I would.
500€/month is, e.g, what I put extra to my private social security in Germany. If I don't have to choose anymore between "pay hosting for a side project" and "keep a bigger contribution to my retirement" is one less point of friction and one less discussion with my wife about the family budget and one more project where the only thing I might be wasting is my time.

It removes almost all of the downside and keeps all the upside for developers. This kind of funding lowers the activation barrier considerably.
To add:

If you have more control over or knowledge of your load, you can safely go higher than 80%.

Eg when I was working at Google we carefully tagged our RPC calls by how 'sheddable' they were. More sheddable load gets dropped first. Or, from the opposite perspective: when important load is safely under 100%, which it is almost all the time in a well-designed system, we can also handle more optional, more sheddable load.

As a further aside, parts of the financial system work on similar principles:

If you have a flow of income over time, like from a portfolio of offices you are renting out, you can take the first 80% of dollars that come in on average every month and sell that very steady stream of income off for a high price.

The rest of income is much choppier. Sometimes you fail to rent everything. Sometimes occupants fall behind on rent. Sometimes a building burns down.

So you sell the rest off as cheaper equity. It's more risky, but also has more upside potential.

The more stable and diversified your business, the bigger proportion you can sell off as expensive fixed income.
Your analysis could go wrong if the two diseases have different rates of spread. Eg to continue your most favorable example that everyone in Italy has covid now, the death rate could be order the deaths so far over total population. The flu takes three months to burn out, had a death rate of 25k / population, assuming everyone got that.
That's been the case forever though. How many systems used the 6502 chips? Vic-20, C64, NES, 2600, Apple IIe? It was often the same chip, with slightly different (rarely significantly higher powered, just different) memory and i/o around it.
20-somethings have 0.2% death risk but I read 1% hospitalization rate. So if you are in that age group, and I put you with 99 of your infected friends, one of you ends up in the hospital.

For 30-somethings I believe this goes up to 3%. Then higher from there.

Neither of those are huge but nor are they zero. Neither is a .2% death rate at millions of infections. Those are real people, a lot of them will be young like you and in the hospital. We haven't even gotten into how you will put grandpa or your avuncular older neighbors or the old guy riding the bus at risk. Or how if you fall in that 1-3% that you will be competing for hospital resources with all the other pneumonia cases.

Was looking for more info and found this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adu...

Edit: is it me or did you edit and tone down your comment? In that case I apologize for putting it so harshly and personally. I will leave it as it is because people need to know this is serious for young people too.
I've heard this multiple times on this board, and given his public behavior, he definitely fits some of the 'lack of consciousness' traits of a sociopath.