skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
There are 1030 known positive CA cases right now according to the JHU map.

The governor's letter is using a doubling time of 4 days, but there's good reason to believe this 4-day time is due to recently increased testing.

If the governor instead takes the best-guess mean doubling time from several epidemiological studies[1] of 6.4 days, then, you would have to assume there are are 38.5 actual cases for any one tested positive case right now in order to get to 25.5M.

(25.5 * (10 ^ 6)) / (1030 * (2 ^ ((7 days/wk * 8 wk) / 6.4 days_to_double))) = 38.46742327016

So to get there, the governor has to be assuming that the current measures being put in place will do absolutely nothing, and also assuming almost actual 40 cases per real case, which is quite possible.

If you assume the 4-day doubling time they quoted will continue for 8 straight weeks, and the number of current cases is accurate (again, probably not - probably an underestimate), you still just get to 16.9M cases.

Seems to me the more likely situation is that:
(1) there are more cases than we think right now (Maybe not 40x, but maybe 10-20x?).
(2) the doubling time will be affected quite A LOT by the measures being put in place. It might drop the R0 to close to 1.

In that case, I would expect the enacted measures to at least half the R0 starting from this week, beginning of a flattening of active case count starting at this point.

That new R0 would hugely affect doubling time. But even conservatively estimating that R0 only goes down by 25% vs 50%, in 8 weeks time the projection of cases in CA would still be reduced by almost 60x.

TLDR - Best guess 8 weeks from now, CA has between 400k-1M cases. But not anything close to 25.5M. You can downvote me in 8 weeks if I'm wrong. Hopefully, the real number is closer to mine than to Gov. Newsom's.

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
And yet, they are not working.
The worst ever depression is a gross exaggeration in any imaginable case. During the world wars, most of the earth essentially devoted all of its resources trying to kill each other for years. How is some people not going to work for a few months going to be nearly that bad?
you fuck you you freedom stealing piece of shit - go back to the motherfucking gulags asshole!!
I don't know why takeout at restaurants is still an option. All it takes is one asymptomatic cook to infect hundreds. I'd rather eat canned beans for the next six months than eat a virus-filled burger.
Suspension of rents seems like one of the biggest things I see missing across the board. Suspended mortgages are great... for those wealthy enough not to be renting. $1k/adult will cover rent for many couples outside of tech hotspots, but it won't go a lot farther, and that doesn't begin to address singles.
right, if you don't get tested then do you really have coronavirus?
Just wait until the first few celebrities die. That'll change everyone's mind very, very quickly.
It's a clear pattern of citizens returning with the virus when borders started to close.
Totally agree. I guess I’m just feeling desperate b/c I don’t see a path out of our current political structure. Maybe liquid democracy could overcome the impasse?
There are already vaccine trials underway, the 12-18 months is the minimum amount of time we allow for making sure the cure isn't worse than the disease. We're basically talking about giving this vaccine to every at-risk person in the world. If it's not safe, that would be a really bad outcome.

The unprecedented scale will allow more parallel efforts, to the point that the odds of a viable vaccine being available next year are much greater, but it won't speed up the minimum time.
Now imagine if every car accident caused 2 more 3 days later.
People were getting paid to try and kill the other side.
According to these numbers, all you have to do is look at the percentage: 56%.

That’s a big number in any scale. That’s over half of your family and friends.

Not arguing these numbers are accurate. Just saying that they’ll still freak you out if you believe they’re accurate.
It's just outside most people's experience.

Look at the graph.[1] Those are actuals, not predictions. This gets 10x bigger each week. The US is 12 days behind Italy. US at 10,000 now. 100,000 next week. 1 million in two weeks. The lockdown may slow that down. Probably not enough.

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...
I feel offended as a Chinese when you call it 'Chinese virus'.

I think you were blaming Chinese people for whatever reason, even you didn't mean to.

You don't want to lose your family or friends, or suffering in economic recession.

We don't want it too.
Shouldn't the least vulnerable, ie most of the population, go mingle and become immune to protect the vulnerable?
I have a theory that's more to do with their serverside/networking architecture than anything to do with the PS4 itself.

Do you find it fails to work when you're most interested in buying something? Because that's how it goes with me, literally as soon as I'm like "oh yes I would like to buy that game" the store stops working completely.
CDC and/or FDA also banned everyone in the country from doing tests themselves.
> I wonder how many great ideas need something like this, between $0 outside money and VC millions

Many, but realistically (by experience) £500 is waaay too low to make an impact.

IMHO the problem is in the 4 to 5 digits. 3 digits can be scraped together almost trivially - a credit card, a few months of savings - but they won't make a significant difference. People who need £500 to bootstrap are already finding them.

Now, people who need 5,000 - those are underserved in the UK imho. The bank will likely give you a bad deal (if it does at all), it's too little for real investors, and it's too little to risk giving away half the business anyway; but it could still make a substantial difference, because it would allow you to pay for actual manpower at local rates, without having to roll the dice with fiverr or offshores.

This said, it's a step forward, no doubt.
You mean 2.2 million right ? I mean the reason why is that most humans have compassion and don't want their parents and grandparents to die. I think that having empathy and wanting to prevent death of other humans is an admirable trait or our species.
I’m sure it was explored but it didn’t close. Stuff like this is annoying for a founder to hear because he’s like “aw yeah, why didn’t I think of that earlier?!” Of course he thought of it — but it just didn’t work out that way.
How are you going to train so many doctors in months? Total pipe dream to scale it more than 2x and then it will still take years.

Ofc you lock down then test everyone who comes in the hospital and then everyone who they came in contact with recursively until you stop finding any positives. Then you lock em all up for three weeks

Edit: and i dont mean self quarantine. I mean like the chinese did it
ohhhh - these fucking liberal fuck asses don't like that talk
Does it suggest they're aware of the consequences though? Not suggesting that they don't understand seriousness of asking for a shut down doesn't suggest that they do. The "seriousness" of a shut-down shouldn't be silenced.
I mean, I'm just saying that most functions are unnecessary. We don't need them, and they actually make things worse. For example, I just counted, and q has a total of 209 distinct functions in the language (and that's pretty large for some apl/k purists). And it's not like the language is lacking functionality, additional functions are simply not necessary. Compare that to really any other non-trivial language, and the difference is pretty stark. Like, look at Common Lisp, for example.
Per adult with more per child...
ITAR undeniably applies to software.

Whether it's open source or not is irrelevant. ITAR software cannot legally live on GitHub.com in any case -- it doesn't matter if the repos are public or private. [But a GitHub Enterprise install (self-hosted version only) can be compliant.]

I'm confused by your request for the company's stance, since it's not something up for debate... there is no room for them to take a stance on complying with the law. It's not up to GitHub at all.
I'd be shocked if typical users understood what push notifications are, or even what those social network links for sharing things do.

Sometimes there are counters on those sharing links, and a tiny portion of visitors seem to click them.
>Uber had a big shitstorm when they first killed someone, now they kill someone every day and the response is crickets.

Umm, what? Source?
We'll probably lose many members of Congress. They're the worst case - old, meet with many people, not social distancing.
Easier to add that message than to have a popup for you to mindlessly click "agree" on.
Testing is only part of it. Korea never mass tested the population at large.

They traced the chains of the infections and quarantined everyone until they were tested clean. They found new chains through sick people who were tested.

Without investigation and tracing the chain of infections, you can't contain it through testing alone.

And the fact that were was an undetected outbreak in the west coast of the United States for several weeks probably made containment impossible, even using the South Korean model.
The tests aren't perfect. False positive and negative rates are non negligible. Not saying that they are not useful, just they don't solve the problem on their own.
Denying that we can make worthwhile distinctions between different ways that people die is absolutely nonsensical.

If a serial killer murders your father, we're going to react differently than if your father dies of a heart attack.
Rent and mortgage moratoria, and eviction bans, are also active initiatives. Several already imposed, more proposed, regionally andnationally.
Or the converse, where they want you to stop when the product is kind of half-assed. The pays the same, but the sense of accomplishment goes out the window.
The US death rate is 1.49% and dropping rapidly.
couldn't? sounds like the US didn't even try asking. the article says:
"No discussions occurred between WHO and the CDC about providing tests to the United States"

and

"US chose to design its own coronavirus test"
Not far enough, why can't websites notify me via semaphore, or signal fires!?
This article[1] states that our best natural experiment for COVID-19 is the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. From that he estimates the the mortality rate is between 0.05% and 1%. That is, we don't really know what the rate is. The WHO giving a number with two significant digits implying some reasonable certainty about the number, is very deceiving and very likely just plain wrong.

[1]https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...

By:John P.A. Ioannidis professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.
Sure, so the solution to idiots misinterpreting the data is that we need to make it impossible for experts to record the data. /s
Okay, I'm glad we agree on the lockdown.

I agree that it is a pipe dream to suggest that we could scale up critical beds such that hospitals will not be overburdened. But I disagree that there is nothing to be done.

If we've bought time so that rather than 5 critical cases/bed we have 3, that is a huge improvement and still means potentially hundreds of thousands saved.

I am also skeptical that the primary or only shortage is labor.
It sounds like we should be doing more education, rather than less testing.
I'm not trying to throw a ton of water on this, but this is a political document. Is it possible that they've put out this large number to justify their heavy handed response when it falls well short of that? Because people, once the economic impact if fully felt, are going to want a justification for their sacrifice.
Sure, if you want to go around the internet complaining that people didn't explicitly say they were aware of something they didn't happen to mention, go for it. I think you'll find that unfulfilling.

If you want to help remind people of the seriousness of a shutdown and how many people couldn't abide by one without society crumbling, then do that directly. Don't attack other people who probably don't even disagree with you to try to bolster your point.
What would be the economic impact of 1 million dead? Twice WW2 in only 6 months?

Would the US democracy survive it?
I don't think so.
“Any statistics can be extrapolated to the point where they show disaster” — Thomas Sowell, 1996
Policy that attempts to help with depression pertains to depressed not everybody.

Policies that affect everybody don't take into account special needs of various groups because there are so many groups with conflicting needs.

You make one general policy and if that poses some challenge for some special needs group you make another policy for them.

"Stay at home" for everybody. That causes problems for abused? Then make additional policy that ramps up services and education that helps people get away from their abusers. Who knows maybe even occasional contact with police that enforces quarantine will bring their abuse to attention?

Maybe depressed will need special allowances for leaving the house? Maybe not.

What about all the introverts and socially anxious people that will be relieved that their employer is now forced to offer them remote job?

But we can't have global decision that vastly improves something for everybody blocked just because in its unamended form it might worsen conditions for some people.
And 4-6 weeks is long enough for many of the infections to burn themselves out which decreases the R0 and decreases the likelihood of immuno-compromised people running into someone infected.

It's the equivalent of firebreaks in forest fires. We know it's there, let's prevent it from spreading where/when we can.
Now Trump's tweet a few days ago makes sense...there was broad agreement across governors would enact shelter-in-place at a given benchmark, and Cuomo signaled otherwise...
Cool. XML, by way of HTML was always designed to be layered. As in, a layer for a different use case. At the lowest layer, is the data. Each layer used to decorate the layer below it enables using it for different use cases. CSS is just another decoration to create another layer used for another use case (styling the data for the rendering in a browser use case). While keeping the underlying data still usable for a totally different use case. CSS Zen Garden is such a fantastic showcase of that layering architecture of HTML.

Regarding Javascript applications, I consider it just another case where we're using the design of the web for something it's inventors could never foresee. Well, they did foresee "apps", but I'm just not sure React, Angular, Ember, etc. apps was what they were imagining.
I don't really see the issue, as long as there's a security popup when a website requests notification permissions, and a way to just block everything except for a whitelist.
These meassures are pretty much already happening here in Czech Republic - masks/respirators (of any provenience, even a scarf will do) are now mandatory to prevent you from easily infecting others. And a plane with 100k high speed tests just landed the other day.
Perhaps here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632739
If you look at the fear --in the supermarkets, in general lack of presence in public-- there are more people taking this seriously than not, with or without an official order.
Wait until 100,000 people die, which would only be 0.2% of the population.
What's the alternative? Wallow in ignorance some more? I prefer to know what's actually going on.
And more importantly, the Administration never stepped in to fix it no matter how obvious a problem it was causing. It took them ages to have the FDA make an emergency exception to allow private testing.
Bigger Brother
It absolutely is evil. Buying out local inventory and selling it for a profit to the same people who would have bought it anyway isn't doing anyone a service. It's not "adding liquidity" to the market. It's not bringing more supply. It's adding a pointless middleman to a transaction that would have happened anyway - it's an inefficiency.

It would be a different matter if these people were actually sourcing masks from places where they are plentiful, and sending them on to places where they are not. Right now, masks are in short supply everywhere.
Switch to using Authy. End of thread.
I’m sure that $10k/terabyte quote was complete overkill for what we needed- but that’s what the stove piped storage org was offering, and it killed the project we were working on.
What's interesting is that the rate of negative results seems to be roughly constant. I would expect that with an expansion of testing we would see many more negative results as a proportion (if we were allocating tests early only to the most likely cases and are now expanding the reach of testing)
I really, really, really wish iOS allowed push notifications through Safari. So many PWA ideas I want to explore are instantly stifled by that omission.
Terrified?!?

Why? Simply because it'll cause you to "chew your tongue into ribbons" and "muscles start contracting so hard they can dislocate bones"?

Pussy.
What? Running a native desktop app exposes a much larger attack surface than opening a webpage.
Massive economic impact. After a couple of months, a good chunk of all retail businesses that aren't grocery stores are going to be irrecoverably bankrupt.
First example:

But the Hamlins knew it was both fixable and preventable - as they told Ethiopia's then ruler, Haile Selassie.

"He said, why do my women get this terrible thing where they can’t control their body waste?" Dr Hamlin told the BBC.

"We said, it is nothing to do with your women, it is to do with your lack of doctors in the countryside when they need to have a Caesarian section."

Second example:

But the Hamlins would not only help repair the damage; they also gave Mamitu - who has no formal education - a new career: she is now an internationally respected fistula surgeon, having been taught by the Hamlins.

Third example:

Then, in 2007, Dr Hamlin saw one of her initial dreams finally fulfilled: the Hamlin College of Midwives opened.
At some point we do have to consider that shutting down the majority of the economy will ruin more lives than letting the virus infect everyone.

Keeping in mind that most young people who get the virus will survive, this is a massive generational sacrifice by the same people who left college around the time of the 2008 crash to protect older people. Anyone who thinks this is only going to last 3 weeks is just not being realistic.

Of course nobody wants to callously stand by while older Americans die of the virus. My own parents are at risk. I myself have asthma and I don't really know what my chances would be. However, the worst-case scenario in 20 years is that the older people we saved by sheltering in place will be gone, but the consequences of shutting down the economy will still haunt everyone living.

There are long-term trade-offs to consider here, particularly ruining the lives of the young in order to save the old, and I don't think they are being considered properly.

In an ideal world we would not need to make choices like this, but the choice is real and we can't fumble it.

I feel like a bit of a dick for posting this, but after reflection I do think it's a valid point and we cannot escape the trade-offs I described.
This is a accurate explanation. Eyeballs are inbound heavy and have plenty of outbound capacity (it's also why they don't care about outbound ddos so much...). However it's important to remember that they can easily congest their internal network infra on the inbound.
3 months ago actually with the warning. we could have been screening to prevent this whole thing from getting out of hand.
So how about paying them without the killing?
At this point, what sort of narcissistic, psychopathic fool needs to be told to stay home unless you really need to make a minimal trip out in order to survive?
Without contact tracing and isolation of positive cases a lockdown won’t work. Since no system like this is in place I reckon it will take a lot longer than 2 months.
If we don’t test, that means doing nothing about it at all, letting it spread unrestricted. If everyone with serious symptoms got good care, we’re talking about 2 million dead. But, of course, a lot of Americans don’t have access to good care on a good day. Since the healthcare system will be massively overwhelmed, only a small percentage will get good care. So you’re talking about something like 5-10 million dead — in the course of months.

I don’t think it would get quite that far, though, because once people start literally dying in the streets, people will be afraid and massively self-quarantine. So... maybe four million dead and the economy completely shuts down anyway.

Really, the quicker and more aggressively we jump on this, the less the damage, both in terms of human life and economic impact.

We’re too late to have a small impact. We’ll feel this for years. Let’s at least try to make something we’ll forget in a generation. Let’s especially make sure we don’t have something they’ll be talking about hundreds of years from now.
Lock him up.

He was one of the 3 people who voted against the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge act of 2012.

> An original bill to prohibit Members of Congress and employees of Congress from using nonpublic information derived from their official positions for personal benefit, and for other purposes.

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_...
I don't understand how we get to Newsom's claim that 25 million Californians will get infected in 8 weeks. The math doesn't check out.

The best data we have at this point is from China. They have 81,000 confirmed cases to date, most of them happened over an 8 week period. Obviously not all cases of the virus were confirmed but people were hospitalized and tested aggressively.

Even if only 10% of the cases in China were confirmed (and 10% is a low guess at the percentage that might need to go to the hospital with serious symptoms, and thus be confirmed), that means under a million cases in a population of 1.4 billion.

California's population is 35x smaller than China's but Newsom is predicting California will have over 25x more cases.

Sure you can argue that China is lying about their cases (WHO disagrees). Or that they are authoritarian superhumans with a superior response. Or whatever. But this discrepancy is just too big to make sense. I don't think CA will have 25 million cases in 8 weeks.

I think he is trying to scare people into staying home. Staying home is still a good idea, because the health care system will collapse at a lot fewer than 25M cases in 8 weeks. But I think it's fearmongering.
Only because the number of new cases is rising rapidly. "Death rate" is not a meaningful metric. What you want is "case fatality rate".
We can probably wipe it out in America by doing this, and Europe, and maybe China already has (though I have my doubts that there aren't still cases that they haven't detected).

What about places with wars going on... Syria? Yemen? Afghanistan? What about places with no functional government (which I will decline to list to avoid pointless arguments)?

It doesn't need to be a big black sheep to re-introduce this... it only takes one case.
Bond Beach in Sydney had several thousand people on it last night, pubs and bars are still operating as normal in my area - the only thing thats changed is most corporate people re working from home yet are still meeting with friends. I've had 4 invites to gatherings over the next few days.

We here in Sydney are (as usual) sleep walking into a big mess.
man everyone here's an expert all of a sudden.
Yeah I think you're right, but the main way to differentiate is probably the exclusives. Halo -> Xbox, Resident Evil etc. -> PlayStation.
Trump administration’s plea to states: Keep mum about unemployment stats