skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The distinction 'kragen is making is between actual cases (total number of people with the virus) versus cases confirmed via testing. The daily growth of ~33% probably reflects increase in testing capacity more than increase in actual cases.

Here are some studies supporting the doubling time estimate of 6-8 days:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0146_article

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
Germany and US wrestle over coronavirus vaccine
Sick leave is in the house bill that passed yesterday along with paid family leave. White house supports it so it should pass the senate with little problems.
> if the UK government can managed to isolate elder people

You also have to isolate young people with preexisting comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and oncological diseases.

There is also no guarantee that the immunity will last. You can catch common cold (which incidentally is also caused by a coronavirus) multiple times. We don't know if that's true for Covid-19 as well.
> More testing will prove this out by increasing the denominator by 10x.

Source? You're ignoring the fact that the number of deaths lags behind the number of people infected, which means the numerator is also being underestimated. Assume people either will/will not die three days from diagnosis. Then the naive case fatality rate is (for small t)

CFR_naive = [D exp(t - 3)] / [I exp(t)]

with D and I appropriate constants and t the number of days. The corrected CFR becomes

CFR = CFR_naive * exp(3)

That is, in this simple model, the true CFR is underestimated by approx 20.
It isn't so simple, because there are many ways of dividing up the work that's going to be done into job roles (and the division tends to be industry-wide, rather than done separately within each company).

The people doing the hiring may have enough information to produce an efficient market for a given job role, but I don't think the mechanism for the selection of job roles looks much like a supply-and-demand market.

Consider system administration. As a simplified example, you could have one equilibrium in which you have one low-skill employee for each 50 computers, or a different equilibrium where you have one high-skill employee for each 500 computers.

If the industry as a whole settled on the first, a particular company would find it hard to switch to the second: it would be hard to even gather information about how well it would work, because the operating systems available would be designed for the lower levels of automation that the first model implies.

In cases where two equilibria are viable, I think where we end up can depend on whether the employers feel that a given sort of job "ought" to be a high-paid professional one or not.
The biggest issue I've seen in online courses is production values. In fact I think crap production values and the lack of a quality bar is why platforms like Coursera have done poorly compared to their potential.

The most obvious issue is usually microphone quality. It's baffling that people spend so much effort developing a course and multiply that effort by a shit microphone. If you aren't willing to spend/get money for a good microphone, your philosophy on what is important for online teaching may have some blind spots IMO.
>although the US government isn't actually telling us to... yet? But that's the alternative those who who think the UK's plan is madness are suggesting, right? Asking everyone to withdraw from society for months?

It doesn't take that much to contain something like this. In no particular order:

(1) Temperature checks outside all major gathering places. Shops, subways, offices, etc. If you're running a fever you don't get in.

(2) Hand sanitizer at the entrance/exit of all major gathering places. Clean your hands before you go in and clean them when you come out. Don't clean them you don't get in.

(3) Wear masks everywhere in major gathering places. No mask, no entry.

(4) Widespread testing and contact tracing for those who have tested positive.

I agree that the West in general is handling this as dumb as possible. Shutting everything down is pointless if you don't use the respite to enact public health measures.
Really nice details. Actionable.
Well, they'll die of other stuff because they can't be taken to hospital without infecting them.
No, these are not VVT.

I might be misremembering, but I thought the new bmw system was dual cam - so exactly what you are suggesting, a trade off in the middle, but not vvt.

At any rate, variable cam systems in bikes have certainly been around since the early 80s with one of the 400c cbrs. They never really caught on but there are a bunch of variations.
I have no issue with filing bugs about errors I think aren’t great, aside from the fact that I might not be able to suggest anything better…I’ll try it out the next time I see something.
> This virus will see community spread of around 30% to 70% and it is long impossible to contain

I don't understand this.

We just saw what looks like containment in China and South Korea who the WHO praised for their response.
Hubspot has both on their free plan, also marketing
I really think he doesn’t care about other people. If you discount publicity stunts, there is nothing in his legacy that convinces me otherwise.
Over 200 different viruses cause common cold symptoms. Only about 15% are coronaviruses. It's usually considered unrealistic to vaccinate for so many different viruses, although there's been some research into vaccinating against a large proportion of them. The Guardian published a good article in 2017:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/oct/06/why-cant-we-cur...
Getting started with shaders: signed distance functions
Running Folding@home on Amazon EC2 instances
- Increased demand for food-at-home combined with reduced traffic on the roads => sign up as a bicycle courier?

- Social isolation of the elderly => provide TV/media installation help?

- More spare time => relax, do a bit more reading, look at some software projects you use and try to fix a random bug or two?

- Risks to public health and healthcare => become well-informed, be on the look out for misinformation online, and try to stay optimistic and good-natured to help everyone through it

Although there's always a big temptation to hack on something huge and world-changing (a new social platform, building healthcare equipment) -- it could be more realistic to step back and do some smaller things in your community, especially if they already know what help they need and are asking for assistance.
I think this is sort of the creator/maintainer conflict. Creators hate maven because they have their own idea about how their project should be structured and it’s different from maven’s. Maintainers love maven because they inherit a code base with a canonical structure.
> No one (serious) disputes this

Spanish flu (second wave) was far more deadly. Mutation is a possibility. Not saying it will happen but I wouldn't rule it out 100% either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave
I hate that they need a street.

Let me put in my zipcode and just pick the one that was on the ballot from the list. For US SENATORS it's even going to be a 50% chance per state.
Tomorrow, my chance of dying from COVID-19 is lower than my chance of dying in a car crash.

In 3 weeks time, those probabilities might have changed.

My behaviour today should reflect probabilities today, and my behaviour in 3 weeks should reflect probabilities then.

My behaviour today has negligible impact on my chances in 3 weeks too.

Collective behaviour might effect collective probabilities in 3 weeks, but even that is relatively minimal considering the nature of exponentials.
Given that the delimiter must be a single character and the intended use is in shells, I am equally mystified as to why control codes must be passed literally. Join is smart enough to reject 2 character delimiters, but could easily grok escapes if it so chose:

$ join -t '\t'
join: illegal tab character specification
One wonders whether that only occurred to him after the bombings had begun
I'll tell you what, there's a problem at the top of the Google stack why it takes more than a few days to put up a simple website for Coronavirus. I guess they really aren't that sharp after all.
Even if the fatality rate for non-old people is only 0.2% that's still impressive 80k dead

Possibly, the isolation is not going to be purely age based, but young people that are more susceptible to the disease might be isolated, in that case the fatality rate could drop significantly.

The problem is that in many cases it's hard to know whether you're susceptible until it's too late. It can be an undiagnosed pre-existing condition, or caused by stress (e.g. due to the crisis itself). For many working adults it might not be easy choice to self isolate (must provide for family etc) so many might likely downplay their susceptibility.

And this is all just talking about fatality rate while hospitals still function normally.
On the chemical tankers, we often check empty compartments for cleanliness before certifying suitable to load sensitive industrial chemicals.

Especially after they imported some of those nasty food grade commodities.

This requires more than just standard laboratory methods.

Turns out I am one of the pioneers of this.

Haven't chemically sampled compartment walls myself in years, but it's dark down there with only small access openings in the deck overhead, climbing down a very tall vertical ladder with your gear then back up with your samples. You need a safe, reliable industrial operator with explosion-proof equipment, and very judicious sampling approach.

For decades I've heard that cleaning and testing delays are easily overcome in many parts of the world where the presure to expedite the movement takes form in ways which would be considered irregular in my port.
I don't think anyone is arguing that we can suppress this completely anymore... all plans revolve around trying to reduce and broaden the peak.
For starters, his croneys seem to be able to get tested for it, even though other people can't. Ronna McDaniel got tested but you and I won't be.
How to talk to your Boomer about Covid-19
Wow, thanks very much. I have not yet studied Appendix G or the Jackowski article, but let me see if I have this straight:

Suppose we give the string `\int` to the `latex` executable, and it produces a DVI file.

The DVI file that was produced specifies exactly how the integral symbol should be shaped. It does this by specifying (a) the name of a font that is installed on the user's system and (b) the identity of a glyph within that font that should be used to display the integral symbol.

So, if we now run dvipng, what dvipng does is look up the glyph from that font, and create a rectangular array of pixels that approximate that shape.

Similarly, if we were to run dvisvgm, it would look up the glyph in the font, and create an SVG specification of some curves that can be used to approximate that symbol.

(I have no knowledge of how a font specifies a "glyph"; is it conceptually similar to the way SVG specifies curves?)
For short buildings.
I should have been more explicit, but above is not incorrect.

Honda had VTEC engines even back in the 80s, they physically choose between (three, if I recall correctly) cams.

These are not pure VVT systems, although they are not continuous like the Hyundai.
and all this media attention is going to kill it.
Covid-19 Globe View in WebGL
> Health insurance companies have already said they will cover COVID without copay/deductibles.

This has been said about testing and coverage for testing is included in the bill that passed the house. But I’ve seen it nowhere reported that this is true for treatment. What’s the source for this claim?

> I am sure that there will be free/low cost options for people without any insurance.

The only provision currently on the table is Medicaid expansion to states for treatment, but the amount of people who are or will be ineligible for Medicaid (assuming they got laid off) is quite large. I’m not certain how you can be “sure” of this.
They also only had half of the beds of, for example, Germany.
Really cool extension! Another advantage over Anki that I could identify is being web based. I see the potential of Supermind making learning a collaborative experience through sharing cards and other learning resources.
To be devils advocate

> Someone should ask him if a driver who had a car accident can "infect" people nearby so that they'll have accidents themselves too.

That would be a pileup
Tried it now with a non-tech savvy person.

* Mobile version hid the chat and everything.

* It was not clear how to start video chat.

* Audio wasn't working at all, even after 10 minutes of trying to get it to work (permissions were granted). At this point I'm not sure if it's a feature or a bug.

* Half of the apps aren't available.

I'm sorry, but in the current state it is not usable for me, or anyone I know, at all. Compared to whereby, hangouts, etc I'm not sure which currently existing features it really offers that are better.
Show HN: List of online doctor services available during COVID-19 outbreak
This is different from non-authoritarian societies how?
> This is a thing that people say because it's ideally true and an article of faith among cool-kid practitioners†, but it is absolutely not the reality in major enterprises, and wanting it to be the case doesn't make it so.

As someone who deals with large enterprises with regards to network architecture, you couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

If you aren't adopting a zero-trust like security model, you are retarded, to use less-than professional speak.
The impact of Earth's gravity on Covid-19's propagation
6-8 months is rapid! That's 40+ million cases during that period and impossible to manage for the health services. This is actually a fast burn. Everyone agrees on that.

Whether eradication is possible or not, the FACT is that 6-8 months is extremely fast and can only lead to a collapse of the health services.
For most teams: Docker or Ansible all the things.

For teams that have a large IaaS footprint: Chef (agent-less actually adds complexity in this environment.)
There are roughly 167,000 hospital beds in the UK of any type. At .5%, you'd need 200,000 beds for just covid19 patients, since the numbers for hospital care have been more in the 5-15% range.

Well, good luck?
"for the benefit of mankind" but in a one-step-removed-from-eugenics kind of way. You could rationalize devastating the elderly is in the benefit of society - it's monstrous but the argument is there (especially in countries like Japan). In this way I believe Elon Musk tips the scale on whether or not he is a good person, and it absolutely tarnishes whatever legacy he ends up leaving.
Design 3D printed respirators?
Clearview AI Is the Weirdest Company in the World
Even Italy hasn't been over 23% in over a week; over the last week they've averaged 19% growth per day, far from the constant 33% you allege:

>>> (24747/7375.0)**(1/7.0)
1.188799592827802

That's a 4-day doubling time, which is how they've outdistanced every other country in the world. Presumably if the Italians would put on some masks and kiss each other less† they'd get down to the same kind of rate as China, Korea, and Iran.

More broadly, we're currently at 167676 confirmed cases worldwide; the first day we have numbers for is January 16th, when there were 45 cases. It's been 59 days since then (31-16+29+15) giving a 15% daily growth rate

>>> (167676/45.0)**(1/59.0)
1.1495551283620273

but some of that 15% is the discovery of several thousand existing but previously undetected cases over the next several weeks. So the overall growth rate is a little lower than that 15%.

(If the Italians were to keep spreading the disease at this rate, by mid-May they'd have more cases than the entire rest of the world; unfortunately for the plausibility of this prediction, their case count would have to be over half a billion people at that point, requiring vast influxes of guest patients from the rest of the world to meet such a quota.)

I did projections at the beginning of February based on a 3.5-day doubling time (22% daily growth) which was what we seemed to be seeing at the time. They said it would infect the majority of the world's population in February. That didn't happen.

† Hey, I'm guilty of this myself; the last time I kissed somebody I'd just met that day was, like, Tuesday. Here in Argentina we can expect rapid contagion.
It's not about moving goal posts, it's about interpretation. Allow me to repeat the same quote, with my own emphasis:

> It's not right to vilify these people while we give a free pass to everyone else doing equally unethical things.

If "A and not B" is not right, you can conclude that we should stop A, or that we should start B. You interpreted it as the former, I interpreted it as the latter. I guess we have different biases.

Regardless of whether the goal posts have moved or have always been in the same place, I'm not sure which of your questions remains unanswered. If it's "who is this 'we' you speak of", the answer is "look around you". If the majority were truly intolerant of the behavior OP describes, then we would have a lot more social unrest than we do.
Unfortunately the CDC's existence, purpose, and funding is controlled by the government. Thus any discussion of their actions becomes embroiled in the political tribalism that dominates comments.

The staunch defenders of the current administration are often successful at shutting down criticism of their leader and their party's actions. Which is doing this country a huge disservice because right now we need to be fixing these issues, not continually arguing about blame.
Also don't forget many disabled people as well so could be a significant number of young people as well affected.

This is starting to look like a form of eugenics where the old and weak are simply left to die.
That math is correct. We have no immunity, there are ~330 million people in the United States, >30% of us will catch it, and, barring advanced medical treatment > 1% of those will die.

330m x 0.3 x 0.01 = 1m . If those lower bounds are exceeded, it will be more.
Lots of people dispute it although not professionals. I’m just trying to get the word out.

What immune deficiency did he have? I don’t know. I have tried to make many edits to my post and can’t for some reason, one of which is to addd the word “significant” before “risk.”

The link you provide doesn’t state that the virus can cause pneumonia on its own but I’ll hand it to you anyway. It weakens my point but it’s still true that antibiotics and oxygen could precede going to the icu for more serious treatment.

As for the media, they make money when people are glued to their television sets because it’s better for advertising. This is why they have a tendency to cover things that are shocking and exaggerate, although they don’t always do it. This is a widely held belief and it’s true.
Like I noted, not the same as they hyundai system, but not VVT either. And bikes, not cars.
"It's also why Catholic nuns were over-represented in early computing."

Would you mind expanding on that?
It's estimated that as many as 20% of the infected are asymptomatic, including no fever. A lot of your suggestions would fail to contain the virus.

I do believe that widespread testing and tracing would be effective. Given that we don't yet have access to the scale of testing that is required to maintain public health, I think an immediate quarantine is the only way to save lives.
So, since -my- risk of catching measles is very low... I shouldn't get immunized, right?
In non-authoritarian societies there are less disruptive mechanisms for change, such as party realignments and political (rather than violent) revolutions. These can be disruptive but nowhere near as much as being invaded or having a violent coup.
If every place does temperature checks, how many will do it with a poor protocol that spreads virus?
The issue is that they would like to build herd immunity by winter, which is not really broadening the peak because that is impossible to handle by the health services.

So this means letting natural selection do its thing.
Initial response to isolated infections requires a different response to that you give an entrenched pandemic. When it always comes back from multiple countries and is initially undetectable complete shutdown trace and contain simply won’t work.
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-how-hospitals-a...

> estimated projections of as many as 96 million cases in the US, 4.8 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 deaths associated with the novel coronavirus.

All Western countries moved to fase 2 of epidemic control: Stop testing and contact tracing, since you have many many clusters of local community spread and no idea where it is coming from. They are hesitant to come out and outright say it. Some do, but not with permission of their superiors:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/ohio-health-officials-believe-...

Mild cases continue to spread, and don't self-isolate, because they may not even realize they are infected.

China and South Korea have laws that allow for containment: If you message your friend on WeChat and say you have a cough, then you can expect a visit from the Chinese containment crew. If you buy cough syrup in the drug store with your credit card, then South Korea health officials know this.

Containment is pragmatically impossible with an r0 > 2 in the West. Just slowing down is possible.
The numerator is unaffected by testing. When you die, you die, you can’t hide it and can’t hide the cause. If anything, testing may slightly decrease the numerator as at risk individuals may get treatment sooner.
Show HN: Store Text in a Gist with OpenFaaS
You are of course assuming (not knowing) that it’ll confer long term immunity in the first place. How’s that working out for influenza?
Tl;dr of a dutch article[1]:

In the Netherlands there are between 40-50 covid-19 patients in ICU in critical condition. Over half of them are younger than 50. (Youngest is 16yo)

Mortality is much higher for the older group, but hospitalisation happens a lot in the younger age group as well. Obesity is a high-risk factor.

A comment in the reddit post[2] which discusses that article notes that in China the 15-49 age group made up 41% of severe/critical cases.

(The below 50 age group accounts for a bigger part of the population to be sure. I see no data for hospital admission rate as fraction of the age group.)

[1] http://www.ad.nl/dossier-coronavirus/40-a-50-nederlandse-cor...

[2] https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fj1owh/over_ha...
Without human intervention, it would infect 40-70% of population. Multiply by the death rate and the fact that most hospitals would be completely overwelmed and you do get millions of death.
Buzzfeed quoting an internal email they do not provide verbatim.

Musk downplaying a risk is kind of his thing, so it's plausible, but without the full context this is just Musk-bashing bait.
Can't do this with HTTPS everywhere nowadays :) At least not without certificate validation errors.
I still don't see how this is any different from placing text files on a server. To make it difficult for crawlers to find it, you can just put the files in a folder with a name that's hard to guess.

Do you really think a bad actor can't deploy bots in minecraft? That doesn't seem to be a realistic expectation.
Yes, but then the survivors of the accident don't go home and "infect" the rest of their family. Or go into work the next day and "infect" half their co-workers.
I don't know about for the flu, but for other types of injuries doctors will often recommend taking double or triple the recommended dose on the bottle.
To some extent the legal wrangling its irrelevant. China is likely to want large amounts of the drug, and they aren’t waiting. Presumably there will be a lawsuit and a settlement. Gilead has very little leverage in China, unless they are able to outproduce the home grown manufacturer.