skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Speed matters to a degree. A lot of resources around, including the ones linked in the Wolfram documents, are outdated by number of days or do not disclose when was the series for a region updated last. For instance, as I am writing this on March 12, Wolfram says last update is March 11. It lists Sweden with 355 cases. That number is actually from March 10 and the actual value should be 500 for March 11 and 565 as of now. It also does not give you sources for changes so you don't get an idea of where these cases are. Both BNO and worldometers give these sources. To me personally it is important to know what the growth is in my neighbourhood rather than in the whole country.

For the same reason, I am not looking at the map so I do not care that much that it is outdated. It conveys zero information about the geographic distribution of new cases/deaths within most countries. I am yet to see a resource for the whole world that is as detailed as what China/SK/SG have.

And before I am told that I should just look at local news. I am an expat with family and friends scattered across Europe. I want to know what's the risk for them in one place not 5.
I was wondering the same thing. I can't imagine the amount of trial and error that would go into making something like this manually.
>To incur massive economic cost is literally deadly.

This is also the main argument against taking dramatic action to combat climate change.
Hyper-V Technology Overview
Maybe, but this is not linear growth. It's still exponential, albeit not as steep as ours (Slovenia), but you are still on course to double number of cases every 5 days.

Linear growth would have a declining rate for daily percentage change (adding 10 cases when you have 100 is 10% change, adding 10 when you have 400 is 2.5%).
it was acute gut-wreching pain that we weren't sure what to do about, didn't know if it was going to get worse... we should have gone to an "urgent care" clinic, which was our mistake.
They certainly do have many but travelers from Europe could still introduce more infection clusters, especially in major cities.
How is it even possible to study AA meetings when they can vary so much everywhere in the world? Some have been horrible with horrible people while others were fine...some were good. I just never saw actual consistency even in the same meetings.
Apple charges what the market will bare, and frankly there is no market for a 3,500$ AR headset.

PS: 28 cores and 1.5TB of RAM is still very much workstation territory. Few people need that, but it’s a solid investment if you’re in that group.
GraphQL vs. Rest
Fake News. The national security counsel was restructured in 2018. The mission and objectives related to pandemic and bio weapon response have not changed in the slightest. This snopes site is working under a leftist agenda, and I encourage anyone with an interest in this assertion to research it back far enough to obtain proper context.
By not high, do you mean around 2-4 mgs? If so, 3 months is probably a good timeline for taking a 25%-50% reduction every 1-2 weeks or so. I might have even taken longer for the last few doses. I think the big thing is not to rush it and take a pace you're comfortable with. Like you say, taking buprenorphine is much preferable to turning to alternatives.

My first experience with a taper was at rehab as they were pushing me out the door. They rushed it, and I was dopesick as I left. You can imagine that didn't turn out well.

Another thing I credit my recovery to is having strong support along the process. Also, building new lifestyle habits like going to the gym helped me improve my self-image. I don't know how much making that sort of change would apply to you but thought I'd mention it.
I've seen a pretty big uptick in new Twiddla [1] accounts in the last few weeks, and a bunch of mails from teachers and schools who want to start using it.

I market it to teachers for use as a remote classroom, so it's nice to be able to help out a bit. Though I'm a bit conflicted about marketing it too much right at the moment. The last thing I want to do is profit from the current situation.

[1] https://www.twiddla.com/
So you'd include parts of Russia and Turkey but leave out others? That's gonna be hard to define at the border.
No. It was not. I was a software developer in a large US Bank at the time. We had already dealt with it years ago for critical systems. All the banks had.
The graph this blog draws doesn't work that way. The whole point of not overloading the medical system - and definitely not getting it at 100% capacity, is that once you're at capacity, it's not just COVID-19 treatment which stops (which means, all those people who would otherwise survive die) - it's all treatment.

Get appendicitis? Routine surgery, can be done in a few hours. And will definitely kill you without treatment. Break a bone? Car crash? Treating you in emergency now might involve kicking someone else off respiratory support.

The cost of overburdening the healthcare system is not some calculation of a nuisance amount of citizen death over a time period - it's a whole bunch of people who otherwise live full and productive lives, instead stop existing.

What happens when you go above that dotted line is not the continuation of a predictable trend, it is a chaotic bifurcation in behavior which does not have predictable secondary effects. The COVID-19 case load follows that shape. The deaths and long-term health problems do not.
Anyone know what the software transmission at the end of the show contained?
English grammar textbooks started excluding it because doing so made the language more like Latin and this was considered a good thing.
Denmark's situation is very unusual. This graph gives an idea of where Denmark lies relative to Italy:

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/tmp/covid-eu-norm2.png

This is actual case data, plotted with the time offsets shown in the key.

No other country had a ramp-up like that. Right now, Denmark is 5-6 days behind Italy in terms of cases per million inhabitants, and the incubation period is about that time. Really pleased to see some quick decision making on the part of the Danish government.
That not not really that relevant.
all I've seen today is corona this corona that, finally something nice to read thats not about it.. thank you
I was confused too. :)
Mathematically challenged person here. Does this means that after 3.3B years, Earth will lose its rotation completely?
We cancelled our user research because of the coronavirus
StoryChief Releases: Social Media Management
If I were to guess, Norway has a large number of cases because they've been very good about performing tests. The cat's out of the bag already, so at this point it's mostly about figuring out how to contain and help people recover.
How strange - OpenDNS/Cisco Umbrella seems to flag the domain and gives me a 403 Forbidden.
Twitter does absolutely nothing to exterminate old fake accounts. Probably because the last time they did so and saw how many real accounts there were, Twitter's stocks plummetted down
Just looked it up and we're only in the top 50 (insert crying smiley).
Meanwhile, back in the real world where data can be noisy:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
I don't think we have become that. We have always being that.

History books tell me we have done that for centuries: slavery, wars, ecology...
From Newtonian mechanics, the orbit can only change by applying a force from somewhere, and a big move would require a lot of energy. And there's no evidence of such an event in the geologic pas; if it was triggered by an impact, it would be far larger than the one which killed the dinosaurs.
Why Do Startups Win?
Exactly this! I kind of understand the WHO, the broad public, including media, doesn't care about models and such things. Providing to much details can have the opposite effect, instead of calming things down it could spark more fear.

On the other hand, online stuff like said growth hacker can draw a lot of attention. This will end up in the mainstream. That diseases aren't exponential, who cares when exponential curves fit so nicely early on.

What could, and should, be done by large tech companies is preventing this. Google could make sure that every Corona related search ends up showing the WHO on top, followed by local sources like the CDC, Robert Koch, John Hopkins and so on. They could support these parties in getting them up in the search results. Facebook could do the same, as does Twitter. In Germany, you have to explicitly include Robert Koch or RKI in your search for the link to show. Even by doing so, earlier today it still wasn't the tip link. The rest is reporting crap written every time a new case was found somewhere.

And yet, nothing like that happens.
Did Not Connect: Potential Security Issue

Firefox detected a potential security threat and did not continue to cs.opensource.google because this website requires a secure connection.
I don’t think Russia has ever claimed to have no homosexuals. I think you are confusing it with maybe Brunei.
I think that this spreadsheet is communicating several things well but I share it as a "reasonable bad case back of the envelope calculation". And if we mean the same article, it actually does a reasonable job at outlining the uncertainties around testing and national differences, and focuses on what is probably the most robustly comparable data point we have: Number of confirmed deaths.

The problem with models used by experts is that they are diverse hard to parameterize and that the scientific conclusions drawn are based on many different models not on one.

It's a very fluid situation.
Weather is so big that I, a small human, don't have any influence. My actions have no impact on the sky.
Hello everyone,

I just wrote a post about how can group of 5 people win a battle against big corporation by changing the rules and escaping the competition. Those are my observations and experiences, nothing scientific.
Quoting from another HN comment I favorited a while back:

> Something that doesn't exist is just so much more exciting than something that does. Real things have caveats, limitations, and costs.

Right now Apple's glasses aren't real, so they have no caveats, limitations, or costs: only raw potential. That's way more exciting than a real product which we already know is too expensive for the average consumer to use.
>I think Half Life Alyx will be an interesting juncture and maybe even a make-or-break point for VR

PC VR is a dead end for anything outside of creative tools, very few adults want tower PCs in their homes anymore. When I demoed my Rift to friends they were completely blown away and the first question was "Can I use it with my MacBook?" and that was that.

When I demoed my Quest, one person sat down and ordered one straight after taking it off, he demoed it to someone at work and they ordered one, took it to a family barbecue and two of his relatives bought Quests.
hopefully the nice kind
it's probably not your IP but your browser settings that are taken from the OS.
I'm using browns with O rings at work. Feel great and are no louder than anyone else's keyboard.
>how do they decide that the earth spun faster on it's axis rather than the earth taking longer to orbit the sun?

It's both effects really. Celestial bodies' orbits do undergo decay and also their rotation undergoes decay. The question is which happened to which degree, and I think the rotational slow down is the dominant effect in Earth's case.

Orbits decay due to various forms of drag. The long-term rate of decay of orbits in the Solar system is relatively well established.

Rotation also is slowed down due to drag, but in our case there's another major force: the tidal influence from the Moon. Earth's Moon is a relatively large companion (at 1.23%[1] by mass). Both bodies influence each other tidally, and that influence saps away rotational energy and also Moon's orbital energy; the Moon already got tidally locked to Earth. Aside of that there's a (smaller) tidal influence from the Sun, which again saps Earth's rotational energy.

--

[1] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=mass+of+the+moon+%2F+m...
I assume that Snopes Inc doesn't want an agenda -- but that many writers at Snopes are anti-Trump. To support your claim, what information or sources can you provide that an open minded person would find plausible?
Spot on!

I'd even go as far as to argue that it's even worse.

[WARNING! Unpopular opinion ahead]

Even those who realise the dangers of climate change and the destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity fall victim to cults of personality and blind (almost Victorian era-) faith in technology.

Instead of reducing consumption and dialling back on wasting valuable resources, they honestly think that driving a luxury sedan will safe the world as long as it's powered by batteries... Always reminds me of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnFAAdOBB1c
You are right, fixed this in an edit.
This comment is a perfect example why we won't have the same containment as Japan or South Korea; we in the west, "know" that our government is evil/incompetent/selfish so even if they act, we will not heed their advice.

It's not like they don't have the same incentives in the other countries, the main difference is that we do not trust the government. Might be selection bias, but I do think we have been hammered with a stereotype on modern culture about the incompetent/evil bureaucrat getting in the way of the hero's solution.
It is surprising to me to. If this was Star Trek world, you'd have computational models built by experts shared and discussed the very first day, forming the very foundation of the discussion and policy around the virus.

I know of a certain company whose entire purpose is building and selling a product that lets you plug in equations of complex, dynamic systems and play with the models to understand and predict things. Like serious, industrial-grade stuff that's used to design chemical plants. They could easily get a virologist on call and model the spread more sensibly, or even individual countries in detail, and release that - which would give a basis for people to discuss what to do and when in a much better way that's happening now. They'd probably also save themselves a year's worth of marketing expenses. But I don't see them, or any of their competitors doing anything like this.

I'm thoroughly disappointed. Is the ArcGIS dashboard from John Hopkins University really the best our civilization has to offer in terms of informing people and evidence-based discussions? Because while I want to believe that our politicians have more sophisticated tools available, I'm pretty sure they're just looking at the same dashboards and same news stories as we do.
Salesforce Integration Improves Business performance and 3rd party apps
The President, for want of a better term is an idiot. When there is plenty of time to act he does nothing, and when the crisis is in full swing he makes symbolic gestures that have but one goal: to increase his chances of re-election. This has absolutely nothing to do with public health.
Hueibei (Chinese province) is at 1145 cases per million people according to the WHO stats from yesterday... Italy/South Korea/Norway are all bad, but very far from worst case.
Like brenden2 said, what is being measured is the number of tests performed. If a country looks away, its number will be low. It will show in a few months though.
It's ridiculous to imagine governments are doing the best thing possible and then try to decode their actions from our inferior standpoint, like if they were full of wisdom we just don't understand -- more likely doing the worst thing possible and we are the victims.
Thanks, I wasn't aware of it. Sadly I get square when I try to use it so less reliable than emoji.
Thank you for putting it so succinctly!
Exactly why replacing by something simplistic doesn't fly. I'll go on a limb and say if I tried something similar in this guy's field, I would be destroyed for publishing it. And rightly so.
It sometimes feels like we're very hung up on our traditional tools. Pick a remote whiteboard tool, give everyone relevant a big tablet (personally, I find something like an iPad is more intuitive than the Wacoms other than the Cintiq), norm using it (along with other collaborative docs), and you're probably in pretty good shape. Not really expensive compared to all the other costs you have.
>Surely at that point most of your money is disposable income?

Not if you're living in a major city with wife, kids, and a mortgage.
But the early stages of disease spread _are_ exponential. And I find that people really fail to understand the meaning of that, and how scary numbers like "new confirmed cases doubling every two days, 500 new cases in France yesterday" truly are.
Yeah I can think of several times when I or someone else came prepared to a remote meeting with a PowerPoint. Of course that took more work, but the product would often be reused and shared long after the meeting. Not only that, a higher quality work conveys the idea much better.
I got a used Wacom
Bamboo (very decent) for $20. Though my handwriting makes it a lot like GP's picture :)
Qnice – An Elegant 16 Bit Processor
I have not been to carnival parties for 20 odd years, but as I remember them (in NL/border with DE), everyone is drunk, hugging, kissing (often on the mouth with perfect strangers), vomiting, not washing hands after toilet (is there a toilet even??), falling over each other and also having sex. Maybe times have changed, but if it still is remotely like that I can definitely see someone infecting 40+ other people.

I mean, we have city parties here 'for all the family' which result in everyone touching each other (just as friends mostly of course but still touching hands, shoulders, neck, face, back), kissing (mostly on cheeks with strangers, but you mostly 'friendly' kiss everyone meet/talk/dance with and otherwise shake hands or even both) but all the other factors do apply as well; bad/no toilets, no soap/water, everyone drunk so who washes their hands anyway, vomiting and not being so careful with putting your sleeve in front of your face when you sneeze or cough... I only go during the day to such things if I go at all (when most people can still walk up straight) because it is rather disgusting after a while (I am old; I used to like that when I was young), but I can see a few people infecting basically everyone if they are popular/drunk enough.
I thought I heard on the radio they shut the entire border. It seems they shut the border with China after doing a quick web search.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/30/russia-closes-2700-mile-borde...
Aren't SARS and COVID suspected to be the result of viruses jumping species in wet markets that sell wildlife?

If that is true, I'm not sure you can just say "it happens", as the wet market environments are man-made.

[1] Vox : "Why new diseases keep appearing in China" -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54

[2] Vox Explained: "The Next Pandemic" -- https://www.netflix.com/watch/81062202?trackId=13752289&tctx...
Ask HN: What do you use for personal news alerts/news monitoring?
Hello.

I'm looking for an open source tool or library for setting up complex monitoring of different types of sources (news, academic journals, websites, RSS, etc.).

No commercial or GUI news feeds, as they are severely limited in filtering and flexibility.
https://xkcd.com/1426/
There have been an incident of someone getting infected twice. Although there seems to be no confidence in the results: https://www.wired.com/story/did-a-woman-get-coronavirus-twic...
I was just looking for something like this - a way to aggregate all my chosen feeds across multiple services.

It sort of feels like the next iteration of Fever[1]

[1] - https://feedafever.com/
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“Trump sacrifices a 90 virgins to Pazuzu the dragon god”
I simplified. Some of it actually is consumed by friction (and therefore heating), too. You're correct that most is transferred.

However, the angular rate of the Moon's rotation is staying the same over time (it's tidally locked at one rotation per revolution). It's not exactly speeding up. Instead it's getting further away, which increases the moment of inertia and therefore transfers momentum.
So I encourage people to go watch the Joe Rogan podcast on this [1]. A few snippets:

- He describes this as more like a "winter" than a "blizzard" in that this is going to go on for months;

- No one really knows what the mortality rate is but it's become clear there are certain risk factors eg the fatality rate among people over 70 in China is about 3x for men than women but men are much more likely to smoke than women in China in this age group.

- Keeping schools closed is a mixed bag. For one, kids below 9 or so don't seem to get sick or die. In China only 2% of cases are under age 19. There are other diseases like this (eg Hepatitis-A). If you keep kids home, some people will lose their jobs or simply be unable to work as they take care of those children. Some of those people will be health care professionals. The lack of those will likely kill people;

- It's unclear yet what other risk factors (other than age and smoking) there are. Obesity in the developed world is a big cause for concern as this unfolds. A stat quoted is that 45% of people in the US aged 45 and older are obese or severely obese;

- It's largely a question of when not if you'll get this;

- It's a myth that we'll have a vaccine before ~18 months. You can't rush this. It's like trying to rush a pregnancy.

- Italy is a window to how most places will be in ~3 weeks;

- We, as a society, have a short attention span. We could've developed a vaccine for coronaviruses after previous outbreaks (SARS/MERS) but there seemed to be no appetite for that when they faded;

- Disruptions to the supply chain are likely to be the biggest problem. We don't stockpile anything and we're dependent on China for a lot of medical equipment (eg respirators) and a bunch of essential medicines, some of which people will die if they don't receive.

The guest here (Michael Osterholm) is an expert on infectious diseases and the author of Deadliest Enemies [2].

I can't speak to the reaction of different governments. It's no surprise there's variance. This probably comes down to just 1 or 2 personalities.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

[2]: https://www.amazon.com/Deadliest-Enemy-Against-Killer-Germs-...
> it's literally only a few days behind the rest of Europe in terms of infection count

And it's ahead of some Schengen countries.

Besides that, it is the 'per capita' part that matters and there are great differences between the various countries as to how many tests have been administered, leading to severe discrepancies in the relative pictures between countries.
GCC 9.3 Released
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groyne
> But I always get disappointed ...

The best cure for disappointment and despair is action. Go out, join like-minded people, and rebel.
Had not heard of Hans Rosling so thanks for that it seems I'd like his books.

I've always strived (but not always achieved) to reach my opinions on the world based on evidence and figures and facts that I've looked at myself deferring to experts in the various fields where I'm not educated enough to understand (medicine - I trust my doctors).

If you look at the world through that lens for the average person this is a golden age despite all the problems we still have.
Flying is an order of magnitude worse than driving energy-wise. Even with electric motors it's still going to be a problem. Tesla travels for about 300Wh/mile, I doubt any flying machine would be within 10x of that.
If you delete them you'll see which bits disappear respectively from the image - in this case: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groyne
So at 2.3 ms/century * 70 million years - so 1610000ms = 1610s = ~27 minutes
Twitter helped put a nail in the coffin too.