skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
For example, 97.1% of fatalities in Italy are over 60 years old, and 99.9% of fatalities are over 50 years old.

The 65+ crowd isn’t living paycheck to paycheck and working every day to pay for rent and groceries. There are a lot of people living paycheck to paycheck who are at basically zero risk from this virus who should be allowed to work.

Since we’re talking about a few trillion dollars of economic damages, I would expect something a bit less hysterical and a bit more focused on the actual at-risk population.
How do you know if those clothes are of good quality? What are some of the brands the produce long-lasting clothes?
Yes, 100% agree with you. The geopolitical trajectories this is changing (or setting) are very different from what we were on before.

And that is an AWESOME subreddit!! Thank you for sharing that.
I've put it in the spreadsheet! I have a friend looking at replicating the paper by synthesizing the protein w/ the Synthesis as a Service companies.

I've also tried emailing Dr.Rider and the other authors of the paper but have gotten no response.
Could be related to bitcoin.
Most people with bitcoin have it because they expect it will be worth a lot more in the future, so they never spend it too buy stuff. Even if it was practical to buy things with bitcoin, they'll keep using dollars and storing the bitcoin they have.
Both Germany and Italy have fairly standard developed world population pyramids, they're actually so similar you could't tell one apart from the other without the number scale [1][2]. Same for smoking, both countries are nearly identical [3][4]. I see no reason to suggest the third point is wildly different either.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Germanypop.svg

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Italypop.svg

[3] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ITA/italy/smoking-rate...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoking_in_Germany
please calm down. the laws of physics haven't changed. we'll likely have a vaccine in a few years at worst. we survived the flu of 1918 without all this new-fangled technology.
There aren't enough ICU beds or nurses to go around by several orders of magnitude, so 3D printing isn't a panacea to anything. It doesn't matter if there were an unlimited supply of FDA-approved ventilators and ECMOs, there aren't enough respiratory therapists, ICU nurses or perfusionists to go around.

My strategy is far simpler. I have one elder to take care of who will be self-isolating for 3-6 months. Not getting sick is superior to relying on a nonexistent, failing medical system on the verge of collapse.
They won’t lift the lockdown until we’ve hit certain markers, I’m sure.

This is why de Blasio took so long (or rather was forced by Cuomo and other state’s moves) to close schools. Once you close the schools, they aren’t opening for the rest of the year and potentially into the next school year.
As I see it, you have a choice between three options.

1. Go nuts and lock everything down, Wuhan-style.
2. Be really competent at testing people, tracking everyone they've come into contact with over the previous ~2 weeks, test them too, and recurse. South Korea/Singapore-style.
3. Accept that ~60% of your population will get the virus and take the ~million deaths.

Obviously 2 is the best choice to take, but in the absence of competent government, you will inevitably get overreaching government because reasonable precautions taken by mediocre government DOES NOT WORK!
> any testing you do based on them helps no one.

Counter example: they help PR authors.

With a lockfile - CI fails which means the issue is most likely in the change.

Without a lockfile - CI fails which means the issue is with the change, or the new dependencies, or the distribution of the new dependencies, or...

Ideally testing new changes and updating deps are two completely separate processes.
> "Modelling" can just mean a bunch of officials sitting around having tea and brainstorming potential scenarios.

Good point, but it doesn't seem to be the case. From the Coronavirus action plan[0] published on March 3 2020

> The UK is a world leader in the field of outbreak modelling and data analytics. The NIHR HPRU in Modelling Methodology led by Imperial College London has developed novel analytical and computational tools which exploit novel data streams on infectious diseases such as COVID-19. This group and other leading academic groups have developed tools to prepare for infectious disease outbreaks, which include real time infectious disease models, allowing policy decisions to be made using the best possible data and are actively modelling questions of relevance to dealing with the COVID–19 outbreak.

[0]: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
The fed can’t do that. The legislative would need to.
At this point, I'm actually starting to wonder.
If we literally do nothing about the virus, or do the bare minimum, the worst case scenario based on the numbers I hear is 7.7b * 0.6 (total infections) * 0.02-0.03 (presumed mortality rate after the healthcare system collapses MINUS the rate if it doesn't), ~115m people are going to die worldwide. This appears to me to be the absolute worst case scenario given current knowledge; gradually slowing infection rates, the fact that the developing world skews younger and is less connected, etc., may make it better.
That 115m will skew heavily towards the elderly, i.e. loss in days-of-life would be significantly less than you would expect.

Now, if you put value on days of human life (which you totally can do; first, as a matter of policy, you won't pay a million dollars to give a 90 year old another year of life, nor would you pay a billion to cure cancer in one teenager; second, you do it every day when you take quantifiable risks to make money or for convenience, everything from being a logger or a deep sea fisherman, to merely driving)... if you put value on human life, how much would this waste of life be worth? And how much waste of life is a worldwide recession or depression going to produce - in direct deaths, days lost by billions of people
in s terrible economy, esp. if it gets to GD levels or worse, or in the developing world where it definitely will if the economy grinds to a halt; and on top of that in purely monetary terms, as people are not able to do things from buying houses to merely making ends meet, depending on the circumstances?

At this point everybody seems to admit it's beyond containment and the only thing we are trying to do is flatten the curve and prevent the deaths. Is entering a recession, or worse a depression and risking a total collapse really worth it?
I am starting to doubt it.

PS. Frankly this reminds me of plane crash reporting. Everybody is, comparatively speaking, overreacting because the event is visible and distinct, even though many more people die in cars every day.
Gah! Thank you.
True, most likely, but it could possibly save many lives in the future.

Also, there are many antivirals that are known to potentially be effective which just haven't gone through all of the rigorous years of testing to be market-ready. A startup could possibly try to more rapidly evaluate the ones that made it the furthest, so they could potentially be used for critically ill patients who so far have not responded to treatment. That could be a short-term benefit, and that same research could also get the drugs to market faster in the long-term as well.
They won't come out and say it, but the plan is to let the virus slow roll through the population of young/healthy to build up herd immunity. Some will die, but it will be better in the long run. You can tell that's the plan as they're talking about "flattening the curve." The area under the curve is the same, but they want to allow it to slow roll through the population so we don't over load the healthcare system.

Compare this "flattening the curve" plan to what China has done. They have gone full on "shut down everything" and isolated the whole country. Their idea is to eradicate the virus in the country. This is a worse plan because it means they will not have herd immunity, though they may transition to that plan as time moves forward.

This is why a full shutdown of the country is a bad idea. What happens then is when you start opening the country up there's a whiplash effect and it starts spreading rapidly again. For what it's worth, the UK publicly announced this is their plan. I forget the stat but they said they plan to let 40 or 60% of their population get it.
Well, society has never faced an epidemic during an election year, so unprecedented times might call for unprecedented measures.
IIRC Diamond Princess tester people gradually over a prolonged period. They declared that anyone who tested negative at any point was obviously still negative when they got off the ship.
please calm down.

I'm not being hysterical.

The laws don't have to change for them to work differently when conditions change.

We are in a situation the world has not seen before. I don't think you can realistically predict where this is going.

There's nothing hysterical or crazy about making that observation.
Actually, I’d definitely prefer this as a shared knowledge retention and shared actioning platform compared to Slack. Slack requires your team to adopt it 100%, commit to using it as the main communication medium so everything has a written record, and be in IM-mode all the time, and at a pretty steep price. Most of its downsides go away if you pursue the same goals but build it on top of the email paradigm instead. I hope Consider will get some adoption and then some tail wind to influence this type of a change.
I'll take not contracting the pandemic for $1000, Alex.
Ford never said he intended to make money by only selling cars to his employees! Only that the employees should also be able to afford the cars they were producing.
> The SRE can ask the data centre worker to take a look

This is exactly what the blog post described
I would say these aspects are important:

An instructor's understanding of the topic he or she is teaching. It is hard to describe but the vision and the depth are just different. In some occasions, I find that it is my preparation prevents me from fully understanding what the instructors are seeing.

An instructor's passion for the topic, which brings moments for learners to feel "this is fascinating /amazing /cool /interesting. I have never thought about that". It seems that passion cannot be faked or manipulated, which means one cannot be prepared to demonstrate passion when teaching a course.

Teaching and presentation skills, can be trained.

Visualization and other technicals, can always be improved.
Yes, but my specific question was: where did they get a CFR of 0.2% from?

SK's CFR[1] is currently 0.9% (8,162 cases; 75 deaths).

I haven't seen any source (or reputable estimate) that indicates a 0.2% CFR. So I'm asking for a citation or reference for where that number came from.

[1] data from John's Hopkin's tracker: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
That's a good idea. Gift cards are effectively interest-free loans, so they give you a way to "loan money" to local businesses which can later be "paid back" by cashing in on the goods and services.

I don't know how well it'd work out for Uber/Lyft and "Uber for X", though.
Can someone explain what a "reanimation device" is? It sounds like a bad translation. Some sort of ventilator?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22582721

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22584108

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22584227
Ah that's interesting, thank you. Looks like an interesting design choice, and would explain how it manages to be so fast.
> Was there for a couple weeks in dec '18… kyoto, fujisan, hiroshima, tokyo… I didn't think this at all unless the "ahead" was meant in jest

Tokyo is a hell of a lot more advanced than the bay area (where I grew up).

> So people can look forward to a 30 year bear flag? lol
Facetiously, I don't know what you're talking about because you look like someone from /r/wsb, but I'll entertain your comment: the markets are highly manipulated and the fed is going to turn on the money machine to pump them up again.

It's all a bubble. Until you run out things to turn into bubbles.
Things to do while you're stuck at home
Two states have postponed. Seems like it's a per-state thing, which makes sense, as Republicans are likely to have primaries, too, just not (well, not really) for the presidential race.
I think a more accurate way of describing the Indian engagement is that a lot of recruiters and Indian firms discovered there was very little vetting of candidates, and that almost anyone could be put forward and start earning money for the recruiter or offshorer.

It was money for jam.
A real-time stream of the latest coronavirus related news
An idea I had, just putting it here.

I tried working [hard] with normal dust masks, one can barely get enough air. The anti viral ones have much denser filters. Some are even closed with a tiny filter. Then, if you simply draw enough vacuum air will find its way around the mask, stuff will go though the filter holes and it leaves marks on your face. The things also clog up pretty fast.

I think attaching a long tube would work much better. It could probably be made out of a cheaper material too.
No, he was very explicit that he was not ordering those measures, but suggesting them.

[1] https://sf.eater.com/2020/3/15/21180845/california-coronavir...
Was China's lockdown similar? All I saw was the propaganda video of people being welded into their homes which was later debunked.
Some sort of virus or something I think.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-amazon-says-item...

Amazon warned it’s experiencing Prime delivery days and running out of stock of popular household items amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Also here's a related blog post by Amazon https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/amazons-actions-to...
Can we 3D print a respirator yet?

If it was in the united states the patients would just die while the administration insisted on waiting for the most profitable bids from various companies while the president did a press briefing to shake the hands of the various ceos and boast about raising their stock prices.

Actually we may just get that scenario since we are on the Italian curve and so many people right now are out in bars, restaurants, etc.

This is going to be a year to remember.
> I typically don't shill around here, but why isn't ZeroTier on that list? I suppose we don't have a giant marketing budget (yet).

now you know, nothing here is just coincidental, not even the timing the posts are submitted or the type of comments that get quickly upvoted or buried to derail the discussion in a certain direction or even the links injected in comments of popular threads to improve the SEO of some companies and projects. Every, again EVERY, WireGuard post over the past 2 months has instantly converted into a shilling party for this company that literally has no product to offer, its source-code is pre-alpha state yet the party is persistent for every thread, it seems that the owners have really powerful friends all over the place and that's why they're having free ride despite having no product. This recipe for having a popular startup name with no actual product has really worked very well in the easy times of 2014-2020. Let's see how things work out this time
they are attempting to relate the infections to an average outcome 14 days later, this seems to view the dynamics as a series of interleaved 14 day cycles.

in this case if one has a number of outcomes that resolve in death or recovery and that number is larger than your original number for infections, then you can fudge the numbers after and say thats the number of infections we didnt know about 14 days ago in order to adjust.

this is interpolation and if it occurs it must be made obvious in your data presentation. it really does help to provide an expected value to compare to a future observed value. youll be able to correct and get in the right ball park, then ask where the deficiencies in theory are that provide explanation for these differences.
Here's a table that showed up on Reddit a couple days that makes the correlation even clearer:

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fiun99/oc_...

For the US, Italy's numbers are like looking 11 days into the future.
I wonder how many affected organizations have begun to turn non-office space into office space and shift work around? Imagine working at the NSA, you won't want a few thousand people coming through security and stuff every day, so you shift the work to be 24/7 and make people come in smaller shifts, then you can put people in closets with good desks and lights and stuff to separate them. If hospitals can turn non-ICU rooms into ICUs (I have seen them turn some doctor's offices into ICUs recently, even) then why couldn't a utility or secure organization do the same?
3000 cases tested positive but from what I know, we're barely testing.

Here in California as of today -- if you have a cough, and a fever, you will not be tested unless you have had international travel or known contact with a victim. This I know because I've spoken to two doctors and a nurse through Aetna.
death is also pretty damaging
And for AR$100
I have many friends who work hourly wages and do not have enough in savings to last more than a month without work. The full lockdown you are advocating for could cause significantly more devastation than it prevents.

And it's nice to think that everyone will just stay home and quarantine until this blows over, but I'd be surprised if a majority of people actually did that. At some point the "lockdown" strategy produces diminishing returns.
Ask HN: How can we (tech community) help this corona crisis?
Hey HN,

I believe as a tech community/workers/engineers we will be effected much less than most other people. We are working from home, we don't need foot traffic, etc etc. Given that how can we help using our skills? I'm stuck at home, not much to do, I would love to contribute and be productive. Let's brain storm.
Have you ever met an heir or an heiress to a large fortune? Most of them are coke heads. Without the actual culture of spiritual and moral training heirs would be incompetent and feudalism would quickly lead to anarchy. I don’t think modern society and culture could produce people like Alexander the Great. Non-western societies (e.g Asia/Singapore) have enough family values that feudal dynasties could work, but wouldn’t bet on it happening in the western world.
Responsible productions run a fight call, or a walkthrough of all the fight choreography in the show, before each and every performance. For a stage manager to bring up the curtain without having done this is a serious ethical violation. There would be fallout in the community, and likely official sanctions from the union. This is not okay.
Sure, not unilaterally. But last time the fed chair testified before congress that emergency action was required [1]. The fed can do lots of things besides futz with interest rates.

But again, this is just Sunday afternoon armchair quarterbacking.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Stimulus_Act_of_2008#...
"resuscitation device"? I agree there's sort of a Frankenstein vibe to it.

https://translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=auto...

https://translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=auto...
It seems clear to me that the economically productive section of society is going to be in hiatus for a significant period of time, which in itself is going have a massive and widely shared impact on the consumers of their production, but the elephant in the room is to what extent the rentier class is going to take its fair share of the pain.

If families and businesses are going to be hitting pause, through necessity and for the public good, then we can't have landlords expecting to be paid in full all the while.

Of course some of them will take a hit anyway when their tenants go to the wall, but it would be better for all concerned if the economically productive can do what they can, without the threat of the rug being pulled out from underneath them.
Must-Have Remote Work Tools
As a general rule competition should do that, people will still buy the $1 widget over the identical $2 one. More may be need to deal with specifics though, like supply shortages from the virus or certain market segments like real estate.
There is a healthy balance here that seems lost on a lot of people here.

There's not a binary distinction between fashion victim and enlightened minimalist.

Yes, reduce your purchases.
Yes, prefer high quality products.
Yes, reuse your clothes instead of throwing it away.

No, don't spent your life constantly worrying about what you need to repair before it falls apart.
No, don't put people through enduring the summer smell of your only t-shirt.
No, don't look awful because appearance matters on a basic level.

Above all, don't virtue signal so hard because it makes you look ignorant to people with more complicated lives.
The real economy should be pretty rate insensitive at this point. This is the financial shenanigans of desperate policy makers.
You'd be surprised as to what constitutes interstate commerce. I've seen local criminals brought up on federal Hobbs Act charges for their participation in robbing convenience stores. The prosecutor made sure to note that the store was "known to engage in interstate commerce." Almost any business you can think of engages in interstate commerce. Think about it, where does the stock for the store come from? Where were the registers used to process transactions manufactured? Does the business purchase digital advertising? All of those are interstate commerce.
Who under 35 is dying from COVID. Like 10 cases the whole world over.

So you tell me which is more damaging?
How would your personal trainer friend have paid for groceries if he’d gotten a serious flu and had to stay home for two weeks? Or if he was unable to work for one of a million other reasons?

A prolonged shutdown warrants government intervention, but people should at least be prepared to have disruptions in their income for a few weeks or ideally, months.

The abdication of personal responsibility there is impressive. I hope we come out of this without major damage, but there will certainly be some hard lessons learned.