skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I'm glad my manager doesn't expect a response in seconds. Some colleagues do initially, but they learn eventually. If he did, I'd tactfully explain why it's a bad thing
That doesn't bode well that you're so focused on getting checks that you've completely failed to observe the world around you.
That’s actually not correct, and the point of the simulations is to show that. By social distancing, you reduce the likelihood of everyone getting the disease. The use of social distancing brings the probability that everyone gets infected at some point closer to 0.0 but doesn’t make it 0.0. It’s possible to have a result where you either have people who were never infected, or ones who are fully recovered.

That’s what they’re driving at.
Italy may be a worst case, but we haven't seen the worst from it yet.
What do you think of the practice of only testing people who need hospital-level care and people who had contact with confirmed covid-19 patients (and people who traveled to at risk regions)?

I would think that this can only give you the infected from a few clusters and you can be surprised by an unknown cluster of patients suddenly needing intensive care.

Edit: And due to the long incubation period, that cluster can be quite large.
Loud cars are rare globally but concentrated locally in certain areas such as London's Edgware Road or New York's Sixth Avenue/meatpacking district.

I'll ignore the ad hom, it's already addressed by my previous comment.
We work with what we have, and update as more information becomes known.

At the very least, we have a current floor that 0.002% of the total Italian population has died from the disease so far; conversely, we know a minimum of 21,157 have contracted it in the same population, and 1,966 have recovered, so the mortality rate is probably less than 90%.

Now those two numbers are very far apart, so you might be inclined to wait and see whether the final number will lie, but the problem with that is, once the final number is known, it is too late to act.

We either have the option of acting now, as seems best with our current information, and correcting course as the new information reveals itself, or doing nothing at all, and waiting for better information, and our current information says that doing nothing at all is not the best option.
Can't view due to cookiewall, is this an article about a simulator somewhere (that someone could link) or is the simulator their own?
Perhaps choose a better source than wikipedia, like people who were there.

https://images.app.goo.gl/vUd8z2gkWEtKWKcJ8

even your source says they hit 2. They claim they downed 3. Americans denied they lost any for decades.
Isn't this why they run tests twice?
No problem. I wasn’t yet aware of the UK drama when I wrote that.
Agreed. There is a lot of params that are not included in this simple model. As for Healthcare System Capacity and hospitalization and mortality rate, since these are all flat multipliers, I haven't included them in the model. The point of the Healthcare Capacity is just a flat line in the system. 25% is a fair capacity when you consider the hospitalization rate of 10-15%.

All other parameters included in the model have much more complex effect on the growth rate.
Of course, if you ever let up on the lockdown, the disease will immediately start spreading again.
If it did indeed come from live animals in a wet market, that seems like a potential valid reason for some criticism, although the they did a superb job adapting imho.
Really? Because I just took these https://imgur.com/a/LvbVZtq
Business and money is one thing. Money comes and goes, for the most part. Employees, their health and relationship with your company are a whole different matter.

If you make everyone work from home, you'll end up with a temporary loss in productivity (thus money, which again comes and goes). Even if one of them does get infected anyway, they won't spread it to the rest of the team. The relationship with your employees is preserved because you're not forcing them to take risks.

If you force them to work in the office, it's just a matter of time before all of them get sick. The productivity will drop to zero, yet you'll still have to pay them sick leave and their opinion of your company will be tainted forever because you and your greed are the reason they are now all sick.

Not to mention, this is all assuming your employees are relatively young and have no pre-existing medical conditions that would make the infection life-threatening. Otherwise, we're not just talking about relationships but actual lives being put at risk.
you're missing that China initially suppressed info abt this virus, which caused it to spread. had they reacted immediately, we might be in a much better situation rn
When I accidently went to YouTube with no history a while back it was all those out there ultra right wing (by American stdards as well ) conspiracy crap
They are starting to talk about it, but there are big privacy concerns of tracking citizens by intelligence agencies. Not sure what the status of this is, but will probably pass parliament because everyone is very scared. They can abolish it later, but we all know they probably won't.

It is unclear of the idiot that evaded quarantine is sick or only precautionary, but that's just the people we have—morons. Very different from Hong Kong and Singapore.
I was going to comment the same - definitely not going to be watching movies with the family on this site :D

What is the meaning behind the name?
Many other locations exist: http://www.websdr.org
It's bit funny - "kosmi" means "hair" (plural) in bulgarian, actually bodyhair. Just sayin ;)
We (Lithuania) are going into more or less total lockdown since coming midnight. With 8 active cases (first confirmed case recovered and was released home). I only wish government would be more aggressive with testing.
Cybersecurity pros are using AI but still prefer the human touch
I am just super curious. Do your startup employees need physical infrastructure or deal with super confidential data that require them to be on site?

Do you not trust them the employees to work their part on their own?
Exactly. I don't see how trying to limit testing to people who had contact with known cases or traveled to at risk countries (as practiced in Germany) can be successful.
Yes, and so could many countries, including Italy. This is the deal we've been had, and need to look to the future.
>reign things in

managers who think they are kings are kind of the problem
A bit facetious I know but I don't feel that bat soup or pangolin pie would ever be an element of Italian cuisine
CDC: Keeping Workplaces, Schools, Homes and Commercial Establishments Safe [pdf]
This is a really pedantic nitpick over an ESLism. It's spreading extremely quickly. No one is seriously contesting that.
As a physicist, you are familiar with formulas similar to this:

N_obs = p_detect * 2^( n_days / T_double )

N_obs : The number of observed cases
p_detect : The fraction of actual cases that are detected (assumed to be constant)
n_days : number of days
T_double : The number of days it takes for the number of real cases to double

If you examine the formula, the p_detect constant is almost insignificant. If T_double = 2, a difference in a detection rate of 0.2 and 0.8 is only 4 days for n_days.

As long as T_double is less than several months (and constant), an absolute catastrophy will occur. Within a weeks from now, nearly the entire fraction of the population that is receptive to infection will get infected, and will be sick basically at the same time. With 10-15% of the population requiring intubation, we can end up with a significant part of the population in each country ending up dead.
Wrk – A HTTP Benchmarking Tool
The Conservative party is fresh off one of the greatest electoral landslides in history, and is 5 years away from the next election. So perhaps they think that people will have come around to their point of view by then? I'm just grasping at straws here, it's almost incomprehensible.
Yes no lock downs and I believe minimal travel restrictions (only Wuhan, China?). They did extend the school holidays. Even in the center of the outbreak Daegu there was no lockdown in the city.
We are not anywhere near the point where the panic of this virus is worse than the potential outcome of the virus. If anything there is not ENOUGH strong movement being made.
> You can’t fast track things past what they’ve already been fast tracked. Stop second guessing the experts

I'm well aware of how trials work (I happen to work in a scientific institution which does plenty). They may have been fast-tracked elsewhere, but not in my country.

So far there's just compassionate use, which means they're administered only to people who have truly severe sympthoms.

A vaccine can wait, to be honest, it's not as critical as a treatment to lessen the sympthoms. In fact, that's why Gilead is also testing their drug here (not sure when the actual protocols will start, though).

Note that I'm not advocating for "let's scrap all the trials stuff". But trials in phase III have, for obvious reasons, very lengthy time frames. And it's not the first time (I attended a talk a few years ago on the topic) where the system (which works, normally) shows its limits (not only emergencies, but for example orphan drugs).
Every time I search for it, I seem to need to go through many websites with wishy-washy explanations. Then I found: http://catdir.loc.gov/catdir/samples/cam051/2004045179.pdf where it lists 4 types in the table of contents (just search for "determinism" in the document). However, some other websites list more types, where some of them imply the others. For example: https://www.philosophybasics.com/branch_determinism.html Recently I had an interesting discussion with a coworker, but I cannot find the website we shared to clarify, what I meant by "deterministic".

Basically the metaphysical determinism says, that everything is predetermined and if something seems random, it is simply because of something we do not know yet or something that is too complex to be calculated, so that we cannot predict the event that seems random. Whatever physicists come up with, for example quantum whatever, one can always say: Well, it seems random, but I believe, that there is something we have not yet discovered or don't yet know about, which makes things behave exactly as they are, completely deterministic.

At that point it becomes a believe, not a science. You can always add an unknown (or "hidden variable"). Personally, I do not think this believe is in any way worse, than the believe, that something "simply happens at random" with "no theoretical way of explaining why". Probably metaphysical determinism in one way or another has always been a big motivator for scientists to continue research.
I believe you’re correct. The SK approach has been more focused on individual quarantines and aggressive monitoring: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/italy-south-korea-dif...
One of the most important upvotes of our lives.
> As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus.

China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan, and then largely to Wuhan itself and Hubei - they didn't let the population know about the danger, so for quite some time no one was thinking about protecting themselves by wearing masks, social distancing etc. But the trouble is, Italy then made the exact same mistake by being late with containment measures, and now the UK and US are doing the same. So there's nothing to roll one's eyes or raise eyebrows about.
This post does not feel like it rose naturally to the top of HN
Presidential primary delayed, National Guard deployed in Georgia over virus fear
I think the robustness might be a big issue for safe AI. I’m still trying to learn something related. Do you have any advice where I should start?
Yes but Western countries are past the point where that is effective.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

> The lengths at which it went to contain the virus are mind-boggling. For example, they had up to 1,800 teams of 5 people each tracking every infected person, everybody they got interacted with, then everybody those people interacted with, and isolating the bunch. That’s how they were able to contain the virus across a billion-people country.

> This is not what Western countries have done. And now it’s too late.
Among other advice, encourages all to
"Increase ventilation by opening windows or adjusting air conditioning"

For schools, "When possible, hold classes outdoors or in open, well-ventilated spaces"

For transportation businesses, "Keep windows open when possible. Increase ventilation"
You don't need expertise beyond elementary school math to understand cases doubling every 2 to 3 days is very, very bad. Look at the charts for any of the countries. They all follow the same pattern.

The US is going to look like France and Italy in a week, 10 days at the most. This is a certainty.
>Polynomial doesn't mean practical. In practice, O(n^100) is not an improvement over O(2^n).

I literally said in my comment "and we have a constructive proof with an algorithm where the constants & degree aren't rediculous"
I blame my own government for this, of course, the same that's getting all the praise and the "calls to responsiblity" from the press.

When we had the first cases its only concern was whether a minority party would leave the coalition or not.

It wasn't fit for the emergency, any emergency. Unfortunately, that's what we will be stuck with until it's over.
What changed when they declared it a pandemic (i.e. when it meet some necessarily arbitrary bureaucratic definition)? Nothing much. Any government that was holding its breath waiting for this declaration is not listening to its experts anyway.

Stop doing the internet equivalent of running around like a chicken with your head cut off. This is absolutely the Yinge to listen to experts, also known as people who know what they're talking about at a level much deeper than a few weeks' worth of regurgitated Reddit posts.
Why Flu Strikes in Winter
> Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the world.

That's not alarming.

What's alarming is that the Chinese regime admitted that the people who they placed in charge of the crisis response have been continuously lying and falsely reporting the real amount of victims and how far the disease has spread. They've done it jus prior of replacing them, but the Chinese regime just replaced them with loyalist party officials, which makes it sound like a desperate attempt to keep falsifying reports.
The time shifted rates of growth tell a compelling story, along with the fact that 1000 people out of 10000 required hospitalization. That is certainly statistically significant. I am now concerned that my birth country, the UK, has the wrong response. UK hospitals will not be able to handle that much traffic.
Maybe we want the machines think as human think
Anonymous Covid-19 Proximity Alerts
> Why on Earth is this a good model?

Pretty much all countries have mechanisms for emergency powers. China being authoritarian has nothing to do with it. I'm not familiar with Italy's constitution or laws, but I assume it has similar provisions?

> Also, the Chinese Party is what caused this mess to begin with, by allowing this virus to spread all around the world.

Huh? On the one hand you're arguing China was too draconian (and Italy shouldn't copy), then a sentence later you're complaining it wasn't enough and this is all China's fault?

What exactly do you suggest China ought to have done to prevent it from spreading outside of China? I haven't heard any reputable source suggest there was any practical way of containing it perfectly.

Your comment comes across as knee-jerk anti-China rather than anything based in science or public policy.
YouTube is using libaom for its many, many AV1 encodes. Without knowing the version you used or the settings you used there isn't much that can be usefully talked about. What we can say is that libaom is good enough to be used on the world's biggest video website.
Yeah, like, the parents of all the kids will get it and many will die. Others will infect everyone at work.

This seems like a obviously bad idea.
People are hearing "flatten the curve" and thinking that a few small personal hygiene changes will save the day. It won't. Like you say, governments need to declare a state of emergency and require citizens to stay home. That's what this article is trying to say.

Telling people to wash their hands is less important than telling them to demand immediate government action.
>Does this mean only tested 10000 people?

Italian health services have tested more than 50k people (the number of tests is over 60k but some people got tested more than once). More than 12k were infected. This is likely to be an underestimate, since we know a lot of infections are asymptomatic.
> Evolution of the local patch is predictable from the patch alone.

How do you know, that there is no non-local influence, that makes your predictions "from the patch alone" incorrect? I don't think this can be easily excluded as a possibility.

We can assume that there is no non-local influence and try to make progress from there, but we might be wrong about it, which is what the article is getting at, if I understand it correctly.
I’ve been working on GCN for a while and I recently read something about the robustness of GCN then I found this. Probably it is useful to get a quick start:)
> The economy is a tool to get people goods and services. It is less important than life & death on a mass scale.

It's not as simple. GDP per capita is strongly correlated with life expectancy. In other words, people die sooner with worse economy.
I’ve found recently that ferrites really help with this. The electrical noise from large steppers is really erratic, but responds well to ferrite beads with 2-3 wraps. I put one at each end of the cable, since back-EMF is very real in large steppers.
Which platform? It might also depend on the content, hmmm.
Exactly, but the government hope is to manage new cases with heavy tracking and testing as south korea is doing, so to keep the future spread far more under control. That's not possible until the current situation is resolved
A is what was happening in real life before B started happening. Suppliers aren't gouging on their own out of a combination of looking out for their brand and existing laws. The best scenario is clearly where nobody is allowed to price gouge. Why are you so insistent on $100 toilet paper being a good thing?
Coronavirus: It is time for a radical acceptance of reality
You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. Use the right tool (sync vs async) communication for the right job. Establishing timelines and check-in points, communicating if and when things get off track, and delivering autonomously is how you mitigate this. Much like in real life. How lost do you have to be to conflate results with responsiveness?
//Most people just don't have the discipline to work remotely

What works for people without that discipline ?

Why can't the boss just tell at them over Skype ?
Herd theory works once you have an immunized herd(from recovery from infaction while we have no vaccine) so that infection passes only from an infected person to a vulnerable one. As we sit, the current policy will lead to an exposure to all people - more or less, and then the recovery and formation of the immune herd commences.
Thus the IK government has decided to allow unfettered spread = all the casualties that involves to form the herd.
This is a million or more people.
An isolate into tiny herds-at-home, test symptomatics - treating positive by supportive care = formation of many immunized small herds.
This second procedure will kill 50,000 or so.
Laters it does not matter if the mini herds mingle as they are all immune. There will be little subsequent spread.
UK is deciding to kill a large number of it's citizenry = some sort of class war???
"China could afford to take the economical hit"

The faster and better that you deal with it, the smaller the economic hit is going to be. China is going to be the big winner here.
Other things people probably don't realise about Korea. Self isolating and monitoring for people entering the country. Also they aggressive tracked contact with infected people. Watching supermarket survalence video seeing who they were near and then publishing nationally the time and location of where they had been
Crowdsourced Covid-19 Testing Locations (US)
The handwaving arguments in this letter are not convincing (especially the "You do also understand that, as long as the rate of increase is exponential, no linear solution to contrast it will work (I.e. increasing x times the number of ICU machines, etc.)" nonsense). The stats in this very letter indicate that 10% of patients require ventilators, which cost about $4000. So even if the entire population were sick at the same time, would need population * 0.1 ventilators, at a cost of $400 per resident.

The fact that we haven't spent $400 per resident to stockpile ventilators is a failure of society and a failure of government. The economic damage over these next few weeks will be far, far greater than $400 per resident.
I think it illustrates what happened on the 'cruise ship' (i.e. close proximity, clustered) quarantines, but it doesn't very well explain what real, individual quarantine would do.
Italy isn't the worst case, they're just 2 weeks' ahead of most other countries.

Looking at the latest SitRep from WHO, my home country (Sweden) has small no. infected (775), but grew 25% vs the previous day. If that rate keeps up, number of infected will keep on doubling every 4-5 days and in 14 days' time will be at what Italy is today (17k infected). And then another week later it'll break 100k. Exponential growth is a bastard in that sense.
The Purell presidency: Trump aides learn the president’s real red line
> they're stopping the spread by just having good testing and case tracking capacity, and good hygiene

First, there is the best of them all you forgot to mention, Taiwan.

Second, To sum up the difference as I have posted elsewhere, it comes down to The East willing to do Social Distancing AND Wear Mask. The west simply refuse to wear mask.
Insane. Here's the key line, from one of the people in charge of that clown car:

"There’s going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows, as we think it probably will do, where you’ll want to cocoon, you’ll want to protect those at-risk groups so that they basically don’t catch the disease and by the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity’s been achieved in the rest of the population."[1]

Here's the thing about this: it's plainly moronic. Because this strategy only works if they can identify the point in question. And there's no universe in which a government can identify that point under incomplete information and exponential growth. It's the sort of thing that only a psychologist who has spent too much time hanging out with Cass Sunstein and other believers in the omnipotence of the administrative state could possibly come up with.

[1] Quoting a psychologist in charge of something called the "behavioral insights team" in https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-...
I don't feel that snipe was necessary. I've expressed myself honestly, and no one acts perfectly in situations like this.
Joe Biden’s first virtual town hall was an absolute technical nightmare
Can we make sure we’re reading this kind of information when given by people who actually study and work in a relevant field?

Now more than ever we should look at the source of every information.

I know I'm going to get downvoted for saying this, but I think it is important enough.
Thank you for the clear demonstration of the stigma I was referring to.