skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
How to talk to your millennial about COVID-19:

I know you think this virus only kills people over the age of 60, but that is only true to the extent that we have enough ventilators for everyone.

The early studies have indicated that somewhere between 10-15% of people infected require a period of mechanical ventilation in ICU. Some of those will also require extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). In the early studies from China, patients also received a mixed anti-viral cocktail, even though there is as-yet no evidence that any particular anti-viral is effective.

The 3.5% or so case-fatality rate has been established mostly in circumstances where everyone who needed one could have a ventilator, ECMO, and antivirals.

In Ontario, for example, there are about 5000 ventilators, total. Some are surgical ventilators and some are dedicated ICU ventilators. They are not evenly distributed geographically.

If, for another example, there were 100,000 active cases simultaneously in Ontario, previous reports indicate that we would need up to 15,000 ventilators.

In Italy, all elective surgeries were cancelled so that the surgical ventilators could be used for COVID-19 patients. Anyone who could be moved out of ICU or weaned off a ventilator (not many in this category) was. But this does not mean that every ventilator could be made available for new cases.

If you truly need a ventilator, you will certainly die without it; there is no obvious alternative.

So, if Ontario at some point has 100,000 active COVID-19 cases, then 10,000 people will die. This is a case-fatality rate of 10%, rather than the three-and-a-bit percent that we have been seeing.

If Ontario has 200,000 simultaneous cases, then 25,000 will die. That's 10,000 from the first 100,000 cases and 15,000 from the second 100,000. Because we still have the same number of ventilators.

Reports from the situation in northern Italy suggest that it is not just the over-60 crowd requiring ventilators; it's just that the over-60s aren't surviving their time on mechanical ventilation as well as younger patients.

Also, you should be aware that the mutation rate for SARS-CoV-2 in a single infection chain is about two base pairs per month. Meaning that, in 100,000 cases, we are likely to see about 50,000 point mutations. In 1918, the first wave of novel H1N1 killed people at the extremes of life: the old and the very young. After the virus mutated during the summer of 1919, the virus preferentially killed the young and healthy.

So, millennials, don't be idiots. Practice social isolation. Wash your hands. Don't touch your face. Don't be cavalier about this and incubate the virus. Flatten the curve.

It may be boomer-remover right now, but if you fuck around here you may regret it very deeply and soon.
During quarantines people are not shaking hands. I am not saying quarantines necessarily select for a higher death rate (a dead host can not spread), but for a more severe disease (the main drivers of a spread are when people ultimately develop severe symptoms).

Community viruses mutate to see a lower mortality, severity, and infectiousness, since there is no selective pressure to have an r0 much higher than 1. For a community virus there is also no selective pressure to mutate to a vastly different strain, so the antibodies for other strains don't help, whereas if the virus is confined inside a city like Wuhan, the only way to reinfect is to mutate to a vastly different strain.
Discussion:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22574688 : 115 comments

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22576225 : 26 comments

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22574216 : 4 comments
IIRC, this doesn't count states' numbers, this only the CDC's numbers.
Try not getting into a large crowd at any point of your commute into London!
I think that a great deal of attention is focused on a few words. The fundamental focus in the UK is on Delay - that is even the title (hence the uppercase) of the reaction phase the UK has entered. From the official plan [1] "If the disease becomes established in the UK, we will need to consider further measures to reduce the rate and extent of its spread. Based on experience with previous outbreaks, it may be that widespread exposure in the UK is inevitable; but slowing it down would still nonetheless be beneficial." and "Action that would be considered could include population distancing strategies (such as school closures, encouraging greater home working, reducing the number of large-scale gatherings) to slow the spread of the disease throughout the population, while ensuring the country’s ability to continue to run as normally as possible. The UK governments’ education departments’ planning assumptions include the possibility of having to close educational settings in order to reduce the spread of infection.

We would consider such measures in order to protect vulnerable individuals with underlying illnesses and thus at greater more at risk of becoming seriously affected by the disease. The effectiveness of these actions will need to be balanced against their impact on society."

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-actio...
For a negative value of wrong he probably is.
For those who want a self-assessment site that's actually created by professionals, there is this one:

https://myhealth.alberta.ca/Journey/COVID-19/Pages/COVID-Sel...
With the advent of atheism, some people seek refuge in cults of personality.
You are just falling for his shtick.

If he was all about the benefit of mankind then Tesla would be a non-profit and he wouldn't have a compensation plan where he gets tens of billions.
Check out Spire,

https://github.com/epiccastle/spire
I agree it is far more rapid than we’d like, but the options are not clear cut, there is no good choice with a guaranteed outcome, as this article indicates, experts disagree significantly on how to approach this, and due to a lack of data we will not know till after the fact.
Only hours later did I realize the title of this was a pun.
Ask HN: What is your investment and investment strategies/portfolio?
I am noob in investment and do not know where to put money.

What is your investment and investment strategies? How you learned it? - Books Please provide the refrences

I am not good in wealth management. I need your advice and help. Thanks a lot.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22572526
Unintended consequences of coronavirus (from Jason and Chamath new podcast)
Do what I did. eBay isopropyl alcohol and some vegetable glycerin. Should cost you less than 10GBP per litre and mix at a 70/30 ratio.
google brainwash time
Number of engineers is a sign of the scale and significance of the project.
In Norway we just slipped from the 2nd most infected per capita to the 3rd after government warnings. If your country has >= 1 infected, you should follow the advice at fhi.no/en.
I've found that plug-in to work even where sites try to prevent speed control and skipping, for example our various campus mandatory online training courses.

This is also very satisfying:

document.querySelector('video').playbackRate = 100;

but the videos are often served from a different host and I forgot to record the setting that makes it work in that case.
It doesn't. Encouraging is positively motivating someone, nothing wrong about that.
The death rate is NOT 1%. Of victims in hospital, perhaps, but not out of the general population that gets it.
Many more of you will die than would have if I had chosen a better policy.
Folding at Home Coronavirus Simulation
It's pretty challenging to get a model published in the time span required - I believe that the team at Imperial College are racing to do this, but given the behaviour of the virus is still a topic of research it's unsurprising that they are not out there at this time.
Can we stop advertising time-limited singup-requiring trials as "opened for free" ? Because for that matter - so did pornhub.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22491910
See also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22567004
Social distancing is just minimizing contact, not avoiding all contact (self-isolation/quarantining). E.g. try to go out for groceries once a week and pick a time to avoid the crowds.

> what are you supposed to do if you live in Manila? Mumbai? Dhaka?

Rejoice that you are with 99% certainty way under 70 years old.
Maybe you can run the fakehn on-premise. At times of mass hysteria it's indistinguishable from the original.
You know that how?
Australia and NZ already have laws for containment that are being used to forcibly quarantine people who don't want to.

Western countries likely have laws already and even still it isn't hard to pass new emergency, sunsetting ones.
Then maybe this [1] clears things out.
Probably differences in understanding what "sometimes" means.
This shows specific frequency/percentages.

[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-sympto...
One option leads to the inevitable collapse of the health services. That much is clear cut.
Bidding a Freelance Contract
No, that’s not a real comparison, because we did everything we could to contain the virus. If left unchecked, the virus would probably have killed hundreds of thousands by now.
NeedleJs – OOP JavaScript framework, implementing Classes
It's possible to contain it with extreme measures, of course. But what happens when you release the lock down and it's still burning through the rest of the world, especially Africa and India? Do you ban every foreign visitor for the next year?
"The professor of intensive care medicine, who himself heads the ICU of the Rotterdam Erasmus MC, emphasizes that it is not only the elderly who are affected by the corona virus. 'What has mainly made the news is that older people die faster. This is about 2.5% of the entire population, while about 15% of the elderly die. But _more_than_half_ of those patients are under fifty years old. It also includes young people."
You asked whether they should upload books by a rapist who hasn't written any books. I really disagree that this is a major quandry these people are going to have to face. Assuming your comment wasn't just an attempt to shoehorn in some barely related grievance about "cancel culture," it is very unclear exactly what comparison you were trying to draw between a rapist and a journalist who's been censored for telling the truth about an autocratic regime.
FAKE NEWS and those who disseminate it are Fakers as well, propagandist leftists
I learned about it through a plugin for irssi, which lets you have a list of users in an IRC channel in a tmux window partition.
Aka common sense.
Australia imposed a 14 day mandatory quarantine for all visitors where non-compliance is criminal.

Not sure why every country couldn't do the same to isolate incoming infections.
> From the figures, it looks like 10% of young are still severe pneumonia’s [0].

Sorry, where do you see that in [0]? Table 3 has a pneumonia diagnosis but isn’t broken down by age, Table 1 is broken down (somewhat) by age but only differentiates between nonsevere and severe “disease”?
Because I saw them advertising that, on their site, which I browsed to, for the purpose of viewing pornography.
35 years ago today: the first domain name symbolics.com was registered
People do not die instantaneously when they are infected. There is potentially a multi-week lag between people showing up in the confirmed cases number and people showing up in the deaths number.

Two weeks ago, Germany had ~100 cases.
Today, Germany has 11 deaths.

Germany has a total of 57 cases with outcomes (46 of 57 recovered).

South Korea has ~900 cases with outcomes (~75 dead).
China has ~70k cases with outcomes (~3k dead).

Let's wait a few weeks before reaching conclusions about the mortality rate in Germany and using that as evidence to prove covid-19 is just a mild flu.

Deaths / cases with outcomes is an overestimate (19% for Germany). Deaths / total cases is an underestimate (0.2% for Germany). Somewhere in between is the true mortality rate.
‘All of Bach’ is the Netherlands Bach Society project to record the entire catalogue of Bach works. Check them out if you’re in the mood for classical music.

https://www.bachvereniging.nl/en/allofbach
The health services do make difficult choices like that every day though. NICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) restricts expensive medicines which can save lives for that reason - to spend the money on something else.

Rationing happens and it will be necc. in the coming months in every country, whether that is by patient income or by outcome, I’d prefer it by outcome personally.
> I think you mean "Thompson NFA construction" and "NFA->DFA."

Yep, only noticed it later, then left it in to see who's paying attention :)
No, because that accident would limit itself to the last person in the pileup.
Boris just won a massive election landslide victory.
Of course it does, but it's still not understood by all.
Yeah the influx of mediocre web apps targeted at self isolation has been noticeable. It makes me kind of sad to think that the majority of people are essentially web developer monkeys and a lot of the interesting discussion around programming is getting lost in that noise.
Oh I know the answer without reading the article.

Because your product is a CMS and you are attempting to make an ad look like an article for developers.
Covid Radicalized Me
Inflammatory response is not the immune system. Both are intertwined but this should not be misread to say they are the same thing. Although I don’t disagree with your statement. There is possible reason against and no evidence that it (or paracetamol for that matter) improves outcomes.
It has also been suggested to me that some elderly/disadvantaged folks don't have devices/Internet connectivity/tech savvy in order to be able to do remote anything. (some grandmas still attend religious services or community groups in person because they can't or don't know how to do it online)

Ideally their kids or caregivers could help with this, but not everyone is tech savvy. There could be an opportunity here -- matching tech-savvy folks with these folks. The trick is how to do it without personal contact.
First-ever domain was registered in 1985. Many others were kept being registered since then. But what are the first used domains up to these days?

100 Oldest Domain Names & Their Current Status: https://dofo.com/blog/oldest-domain-names/
The UK gov and their scientific advisors disagree with you or they’d be taking a different course. This really is not clear cut, if we’re being honest, nobody really knows at this stage, there are too many unknowns.
Seems like a small price to pay.
Apparently the government's own (secret) figures suggest around 500,000 deaths, and around 8 million people in need of hospitalisation - in a country which currently has around 4,000 ICU beds, and almost no spare capacity in hospitals.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus...

Even if the peak is spread out over nine months, that still means setting up, equipping, and staffing around a million extra beds over the next few weeks. At a time when existing medical staff are incapacitated.

This is not going to happen. The only way it might be possible is with civil conscription - literally taking people off the street and putting them through basic nursing boot camp. Even then there would be huge issues with supplies of equipment and consumables.

So the reality is that most people who need to be hospitalised in the UK (and probably the US) won't be - at least not effectively. Italy has shown what this means: without adequate care the CFR rises from 1% to 7% or so.

Which in turn means that without aggressive containment measures to slow the spread, the actual death toll will be in the millions, heavily concentrated among the over 65s.

There are around 10 million over 65s in the UK. If these numbers are right, around 10% of them will die.
Read Musk’s tweets. The email is very plausible.
It doesn't matter if 10mm is in 30 days or 20 days it matters if when you hit 10mm you expect to need 10x as many beds or not which you can tell by taking used beds/actively infected people. In use beds is easy to gather but if we can't accurately gather infected people we have no way to accurately predict if we have enough beds for the given expected peak.

The peak can be moved and lowered if needed but it comes at great cost so nobody will want to do it without data.
I don't think encryption being reversible is anything to be laughed at. This leads to a lot of other caveats. For example, the length of the plaintext is in correlation with the length of the ciphertext. From this, an attacker could potentially tell if a managed password is short enough to be even worth trying to brute-force. And yes, passwords could be padded, yes, I'm oversimplifying things here, but my point is, in some cases encryption is not the best tool.

And this is one of them. Because what particularly annoys me about this whole thing is that there already are perfectly good and well-supported authentication protocols, like SRP [1], that don't involve you sending your password to anyone. If we all just used that, password reuse wouldn't be something to worry about in the first place. Sadly, a lot of people saw it as trying to be a replacement for HTTPS (it is not), so it never really caught on, which is a pity IMO. The client side could be a built-in module in browsers or something like that.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secure_Remote_Password_protoco...
Coronavirus related Stagflation prediction from Feb 18
Apparently Switzerland surpassed other countries and is now #2 for no of cases per million people...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Maybe a little OT, but why aren't the OR-tools in general more focused (or more "marketed") towards GPU/TPU clouds since they seem like the exact problems which they are made for? More focus seems to be towards TF/PT/NN and not the real problems like what OR-tools and solvers in general push for.
> We’re also removing COVID-19 misinformation on YouTube

Google is way more effective removing the monetization of a video because there is 2 seconds that sound like a copyrighted song than anything else. Because it is not a problem of removing content, it is a business model problem. YouTube incentivizes highly controversial videos and scare videos as they gather many views quickly.

Traditional media with its curated content creates an editorial line that needs to defend and can easily have a big backslash. YouTube continues to be immune to consequences to the extremist content that it publishes.

YouTube should be a platform were you pay-to-publish videos and you are responsible for the content. Instead of that, YouTube is a publisher with all the rights but no duties.
That's why you don't infect everyone at once and you undertake social distancing, working from home, behavioural changes like avoiding gatherings and increased hand washing etc etc. Governments have been saying for weeks that we'll need to 'flatten the peak' of the infection to keep health care needs manageable.
Common cold is caused by hundreds of different rapidly mutating viruses, sometimes infecting you simultaneously, and it's usually a rhinovirus not coronavirus.

It has been studied and determined most people cannot catch the same cold virus again within a short-medium time frame.
Those are the companies that won't survive without it. The bigger companies are expected to fund it themselves.
Does help when an effective leader is filling an otherwise poorly-occupied leadership position.

I guess anything less would be a dummy.

You don't have to be a mainstream follower to appreciate a high-performance leader

>who definitely understands Math

>who definitely understands Math

In future centuries we will look back and recognize this leadership characteristic is what has always been most advanced compared to all other outstanding choices.

Especially at times when the stakes get unusually high.

Organizations, communities, citizens, civilizations, and populations have always gone by the numbers.

And there's always a mainstream of some kind, with attitude being a thing among the moving weighted moving averages.

Seems like those furthest from the mainstream can also be most sensitive by nature to an _idiot-in-charge_ across various types of idiocy, and multiple levels of government, corporations, and other organizations.

Strongarm conformance and/or manipulated populism are some things that can give rise to a mainstream with ineffective recognition & response to dummy leaders and their destructive outcomes.

Since even a slightly above average problem-solving ability can make relatively genius moves compared to a slightly below average performer, it's tragic when there's not enough mainstream force to elevate the most mathematically competent leaders to handle high-stakes responsibilities.

Even more tragic when the mainstream is less-aware, and settles on preference for the dummy ones.
A bit from 2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2628170

There's more on the Worse Is Better side: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
Keep a distance of 5 parsecs minimum from your favourite holy cows in computer science definitely would help. I understand that is difficult not jumping over they at sight, but some are fragile (some are even valuable).

On the other hand, maybe your old computer science teacher would appreciate a few kind words and some remote conversation online.

> "Due to Covid-19, the talks in Spain will not occur on the dates previously planned"

Rresspuista correcta, Señor Bond...
No, they said to do nothing different from normal at all, unless you are over 70 or you have cough. Guess who jumped from 10 deaths per day from yesterday to 14 per day today almost doubling the deads for two days in a row?
Correct. Matt Hancock on the Andrew Marr show this morning:

> Herd immunity is not our policy, it's not our goal. Our goal is to protect life. I want to be absolutely crystal clear that we will do what is necessary to protect life.
The best thing one can do when setting out on the journey to learn reverse engineering is to avoid the temptation of trying to understand every line of assembly. Instead, try and gain an intuition around common patterns in various dialects (ARM / x86 / MIPS / etc).

You can then abstract that understanding into macro-intuitions of control flow. When opening a black box binary in IDA for the first time, this allows you to think in terms of "X input results in control flow path Y which gives me access to function Z and - because of calling convention - register A to redirect execution to memory location M." Now you're in business and can worry about shellcode, ROP chains, whatever.

Just a couple of cents from the trenches.
Repeated use of a straw man argument.
I knew that retention was a reason for higher pay. But social inclusion was too, that is the surplus of money and ability to join in consumer culture. (I doubt Henry used terms like that!)

"It was nothing at all to do with creating a workforce that could afford to buy the products" is simply a lie. That was part of the reason.
Editorial Rates
What does he man by "record structure in the file system" in re to Multics?
Dave Rubin Interviews Peter Thiel (2018)
I'd love to see "How we stopped to be an economic parasite and started to pay taxes in markets of our operation, so public healthcare and services could serve the society of which Google is a part of"
Per capita, it is somewhere in the middle and on par with neighbouring EU countries.
Probabilities of Probabilities
No, it means don't go to football matches. Don't go to cinema. Don't go to a convention. Don't ride on a train for a leisure trip. That the distancing can't be done 100% perfectly does not mean that all distancing is worthless and therefore that NO distancing should even be attempted. Even slowing the spread of the illness may be worthwhile.