skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
You clearly haven't done the math. The UK's population is 66 million. According to the government's own estimates at least 60% will become infected, and the final case fatality rate will be around 1%.

Hysteria over 400,000 extra deaths may well be pointless, but white hot fury over this pointless and partially avoidable loss of life is hardly misplaced.

Never mind that a significant proportion of survivors - who will outnumber the deaths by some non-trivial multiple - will be left with permanent lung damage.
TBF it's probably too late for most countries to stop transmission entirely (SK certainly doesn't though that's in part due to Patient 31). However that doesn't mean you should let the virus run unchecked, because doing that overwhelms the healthcare system which seems to be what ended up happening in Italy: there are too many case requiring intensive care (especially as the system is not really prepared yet), which means not everybody can be treated properly, which means more people die that necessary, from both coronavirus and other IC-requiring issues (e.g. strokes or accidents and whatnot).

The nominal death rate of covid-19 seems to be about 0.5% at worst, possibly lower because lots of asymptomatic cases (so the numbers we have right now are likely over-estimates). By comparison the flu is about 0.1% (thought what's also unclear is how much of the population it can spread to before it basically burns itself out, IIRC flu is about 10% but for covid I've seen speculations from 20 to 70%). However if intensive care gets overloaded, it shoots up to 5~7%, possibly even higher. That's a lot of extra and unnecessary deaths. That's going from a single "unavoidable" death to 10 or 15.

That's what "flattening the curve" is about, all the social distancing, hygiene, etc…[0] it's about slowing down the spread from its (again nominal) 33% per day or something, to give the healthcare system the time to ramp up to "full capacity" (and habituation) and keep the number of new cases below its capacity.

That, incidentally, is also why universal testing is not that useful: people with fragilities or comorbidities and medical personnel need to be checked quickly because that impacts either their care or whether / how they can care for others. For the vast majority, if you think you might have COVID you stay home so you're not a spreader, which is what you'd do if you were a confirmed case. That's about it. Sure knowing would be nice, but even South Korea simply can not test everybody, they can test 10000 people a day out of a population of 51 million, this means it'd take them 14 years to test everybody. That's obviously not useful.

It's also why you should absolutely not call (to say nothing of going to) ER for covid. Hopefully your healthcare system has a contact point for covid, look up that number and if you think you need to call these people, not 911 or 112.

Also note: outside is safe, you can go out and watch trees or run or bike. In fact I really should. You should just avoid direct contact, stay out of droplets (coughing) range, try to not cough on other people (cough in your elbow or a hankie), wash your hands when you can (especially when you get home). Also treat all doors like they're the worst toilet doors you've ever seen e.g. if you can open them without your hands do so, if you can't then try very hard not to touch yourself until you've sanitised or washed your hands.

[0] also masks if the supply is good enough which is not the case in most countries, which is why it's recommended to leave them to medical professionals who can't just stay home because they have to go out and treat cases
As discussed elsewhere in this thread by others, mycroft can't do offline processing, according to their faq at least.

128GB is the minimum I use for general purpose servers so this machine would be a repurposed machine rather than something specially ordered or built.
No, the math for QALY benefits vs risks works out greatly in the cyclists favor, and there are common sense precautions you can take to reduce your injury risk below the population average.
I wonder what will happen to gas prices by then. Will it be feasible to still drive daily in one, or just an hour of fun driving on the weekend?
Have you seen what the Italian doctors are saying?

Did you listen to the Chinese?
That's relatively low hp for the displacement, so it's harder to extrapolate.

For another comparison the 3 cylinder 765cc engine from Triumph (street version) does about 120 or 125 with a red line of 12.5k if I recall correctly. In racing form (i.e. the moto2 engine version) it pushes about 140 (I think mostly via tuning and a bit higher red line). This is naturally aspirated but probably a good rough guestimate for bounds of what you can do on regular fuel and air. This also shows you why just ramping up the compression won't get you there, you need to change the air pressure too.
For the street version of the triumph engine the service interval is something like 10k miles, valves every 2nd one.

If you scale that linearly you still "only" get close to 350 , so you have an idea of how much stress is on this design to push 600 on 2l.

By comparison the inline 4s in motogp make 250+ from 1 liter, so that's getting closer. They do probably represent something close to what is possible without induction though.
Oh, do you live next to a factory making parts for electric cars?
It is quite confusing when projects advertise that they have best-in-class performance then don't provide benchmark results in the readme or documentation. This may be an extreme example of that.
If they're only different by a constant factor, then both have the same interesting properties and neither is much more difficult to calculate than the other -- at least for sinusoids.

If something is proportional to one, it's naturally proportional to the other.
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/123882151552689766... appears to give a better explanation from the modellers.

The aim is to flatten the curve, any herd immunity is a by-product but not the aim.
That seems to be the strategy of tons of countries (although in most case they do not publicly state it that clearly yet, or at least they focus their narrative on something else) and I'm wondering if there is another reasonable one now that it is so much widespread, and given the characteristics of the virus. It is reasonable to expect there are tons of "healthy" carriers, at least largely healthy enough so they don't change much and go on with their life (except now with maybe slightly less social contacts, but I'm not sure this has any threshold effect except in Chinese like approaches). Also we have clusters in places we previously thought cleared in previous phases, so we just are not good enough to contain, and unwilling to even do hard quarantines anyway.

So can this virus be stopped before herd immunity by just quarantining the whole world for a few weeks? Maybe, but will we be willing or even able to actually do that? Doubtful -- if we actually attempt that, the side effects might be worse. Plus the whole world must participate -- it likely won't happen.

So that the kind of consideration that are likely discussed, and models run to determine the likely outcome of diverse scenario.

The death toll will be high.
Like something from Star Trek
> What is the UK doing different than Italy?

They want to avoid a lock-down disrupting normal life. Meaning general restriction of any and all individual movement all together.

The trouble is that life as we know it got cancelled in the past few weeks. And the harder society tries to cling to the idea of "business as usual", the worst things are going to get down the line.

> Will they just let the old and weak die as part of their plan?

In a nutshell: Yes.

The idea of "herd immunity" is that if enough people are immune, the virus can't jump from host to host and people can't infect each other.

Vaccination is essentially an artificial way of creating herd immunity without making people actually suffer the illness. Of course, we can't vaccinate, so the other scenario is people actually contracting the disease and getting sick.

The stark consequences of the U.K. strategy are (a) an exponential increase in sick people who need healthcare (b) the implosion of an overran healthcare system and (c) many more people dying. Not just the old and weak, but literally anyone who requires healthcare (i.e. heart attacks, strokes, other illnesses, accidents,...).

Countries such as Italy and Spain enforce a lock-down exactly BECAUSE they want to avoid healthcare systems from collapsing any further.

Confining people at home literally slows the spread infections as there are far less opportunities to pass the virus from host to host. Decreasing the rate at which more people get sick buys time for the healthcare system to process those who are already sick.

Down the road, people will still contract the disease, but less people will die including the weak and the old as resources will stay available to tend to those who really need them.

Remember, when we talk about "old" and "weak" people, we are talking about someone else's family members and loved ones. If you want to show solidarity and at least do some kind of civic service towards your (local) community, then do this:

* Work from home if you can / are allowed to.
* Don't make unnecessary social calls.
* Wash your hands regularly.
* Don't touch your face.
* Don't visit people at risk if you don't have to.
* Keep a fair distance from other people (6 feet).
* If you feel sick, or you're coughing: stay the f- at home.
* Don't hoard and don't buy from the black market.
* Keep calm and carry on. Society isn't helped if you're going to act like The End is Nigh.
I’ve done that. Especially if you want specific versions of data to build ML models, this makes a nice audit log for reproducibility
It said Secret _sharing_ app. I guess people should pay attention.
Contrast this with reports like this one: "Frustrated millennials say they can’t get their aging parents to [...] take coronavirus seriously" https://www.businessinsider.sg/millennials-say-parents-wont-...

Like most things, it's probably over-reduction to attribute any given state of mind to every person born in a particular 20-year span.
Funny how price gouging NEVER applies to doctors and lawyers - - - seemingly only to tree co's after hurricanes, contractors, and the like.

But when your freedom or your health is at risk, then the medical community and the lawyers can screw you over all they want - - - at no real risk to them.
And how does keeping almost everything open and working as normal help control the spread?
If your software is small enough that a small handful for engineers can keep the whole thing in their head, you probably don't need submodules. If you have different teams working on different parts of the project, submodules start making more sense.
The UK government announced the policy in a press conference with the Prime Minister and the chief scientific advisor.

Here is an interesting follow up interview with the chief scientific advisor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XRc389TvG8

My personal opinion, after watching the interview, is that the UK government is not doing anything that radical. They will follow the reactions of other countries but want to time the reaction so that it is most effective.
Not sure what to make of your last line. If someone has a bridge somewhere on their trip path, for most people it's somewhere in the middle, and distant from the start point where the decision of how to travel takes place. Their street being ice-free is probably more meaningful than the bridge's being ice-free.
For bad cases covid causes pretty bad pneumonia, resulting in scarring of the lungs and medium and long-term difficulties (e.g. reduced lung capacity, etc…). Some cases of flu have similar result, colds generally don't unless they degenerate into pneumonia.
Glorious. :)
SCTP can run over UDP. WebRTC does it.
It is not that. A higher price doesn't magically mean that rich people get it and poor people don't. Everyone will respond to that price signal and adjust their behavior.

Everyone will also change their priorities. There seems to be this idea that there are millions upon millions of people who have a fixed budget and purchase plan that has no room for adjustment at all. I don't think that is true, it is a myth.

And in any case, if the preferred policy of not letting prices float results in a completely empty shelf in the grocery store, please explain to me how the poor, middle class, or rich are going to purchase anything from that empty shelf?
1% death rate is based on all of the 10-20% of patients that need respirators getting respirators. China was able to send medical aid from all their provinces. Italy has been spreading the load as well - and had a closer to 5% death rate. I strongly suspect that the death rate will climb sharply once bed space is full. Note that patients that need respirators need them for 3 weeks. The idea of "hidden" mild cases seems to be fairly bogus as well. The WHO verified China's infection count.
This South Korean manufacturer seems to able to do 94 tests at a time in four hours with their machine. Which might be a nicer batch number for testing closer to the point of care.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-...
Java GUIs were weird purple garbage in those days. Horribly slow, painful to deal with.
>Even under lockdown, quarantined people will be supplied and grocery stores open and supplied.

From an American perspective, that is not immediately clear to me.

>Avoid big groups, keep a certain distance.

...

> buy normal volumes of stuff ... Spread shopping over multiple shops of multiple chains

These two things are not compatible in my view.

>If push comes to shove, accept shortages of luxury stuff and certain products. But we are very far from that.

Maybe where you are. My grocery shopping trip this morning ended with me re-planning meals for the week in the supermarket based on what was available. A wide range of staple ingredients were completely out of stock.
I personally did not refute your logic because it doesn't matter if it's correct or not. It assumes falsehood and leads to "garbage" conclusions. Why would anyone want to consider what implication chain have you constructed between false and false?
Sure. That's why I see hordes of young people trying to reverse the "damage" the old generation has infliced upon the world. What I see is that most young people are self-centered A##oles.
Strategic lawsuit against public participation (SLAPP suits)
The government isn't going with a herd immunity strategy. It's waiting for the most impactful time to lockdown.
Testing should be reserved for situations where the outcome of the test will change management. One such situation is whether or not the patient should be quarantined. Another situation is whether or not medical management will be affected (send home vs admit vs ICU). If someone is going to self quarantine regardless, maybe testing isn't appropriate.
Are you suggesting we should have anti-hoarding regulations imposed against the free market to keep these individuals out of it?

https://oag.ca.gov/consumers/pricegougingduringdisasters#2C
What a heart wrenching article. When it's just numbers people can brush it off, but when it has a human face and story, I think that's when it really hits most people. More so when it affects closed ones too.

I've been repeating this to my students: don't panic, but be cautious.
The price float did not happen and what was the result? Empty shelves. Is that a satisfactory outcome from your standpoint?
Go modules are built around git, unlike many other languages package systems. That means you don't get to pick and choose what goes into them. Imagine if you had to put an empty package.json in every (non-node) directory of your git repo to exclude it from an NPM package, or an install.py in every (non-python) directory to exclude it from a PyPI package. Multi-language repos would get ridiculous pretty quickly.
i wonder if this crisis will set up a long-term discussion about this issue from now on
"we should have anti-hoarding regulations imposed"

That is a brilliant idea for other consumers and the health of our planet. Point well taken and I will share this out.
They can deal with it more efficiently because its model is closer to their current mental model, and so requires less cognitive load to achieve initial results.

Gabriel talks about this under the label "worse is better". [1] I agree your preferred approach is better in the long term and at scale. But that only matters in the long term, and only if scale is eventually achieved. Tool adoption is generally a series of short-term decisions, and most projects start small.

I agree mentoring people is great, but neither you nor I have time to mentor all the people just configuring things into becoming good programmers.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worse_is_better
Not an option.
Not everyone is living for the profits
Billions is a high ask; almost nobody has the kinds of capital needed to do that, and even for those that do, a highly levered bet that hundreds of thousands of people are going to die is pretty slimy. Lots of people (including me) did sell substantial amounts of stock before mid-February to ensure we have money available.
> puts more pressure on hospitals as staff need to take time off or find childcare

Yes but you can use a trick: still allow children of medical staff in schools. That what is planned in France, for now.
It's not that the scale changes, it's that the statistics count too few events to properly handle external factors. When you're looking a cohorts of around 4000 people, small things can change things by multiple percent.
Couple of things that sprang to mind:

Regulatory: One thing with working with old people and other vulnerable people (in the UK) is that any volunteers need criminal record checks. Any new organisation might need licensing.

Redundancy: There are already organisations helping vulnerable groups and old people. They usually offer a wide range of services or at the very least know the problem space that you are entering.
Even setting aside the possibility that some generational resentments should perhaps be taken seriously, this op-ed is really thin. The author's evidence for "a degree of cruelty that is truly staggering" is two social media posts. To this point I haven't seen much reason to think that the elderly are really being shunned in the current climate.
I have watched them. They're merely saying the same thing but in more diplomatic words. In South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China, having most of the population infected isn't an implicit assumption that the strategy is built around -- it is the very thing their strategy is made to avoid.
The NHS is not able to handle this. They should at the very least be building several emergency hospitals right now to create beds, but they are not.

Having a chance of reducing the strain would mean drastic quarantine measures, which they don't want to enact.

Northern Italy has one of the best health systems in Europe (the NHS is not one of them) and they are discussing whether to let people over 80 die for lack of capacity...

Keep your elderly loved ones isolated and safe because if anything happens to them in the next few weeks they will be on their own.
Well the harleys are some of the worst offenders here, even on stock pipes. RPM isn't really an issue there.
Not young at all. Your belief in the wisdom of centralized groups of "experts", is historical naive and dangerous.

Note. I'm pretty much poking fun at the idea of things being centralized and driven top down. Not at the notion of "experts"
If the author thinks overhearing some people saying old people will die soon in any case is “staggering, heartless cruelty”, he really needs to get out more.
I did my graduate work in a tuberculosis lab where disposable n95 respirators were part of our standard PPE, so I have a few opinions on this.

> virtually every person who was on the plane with a facemask on was wearing it improperly.

Yes, and it drives me crazy. The disposable masks today are excellent and learning how to fit them properly isn't hard.

1. Shave. Sorry if you love your beard.

2. Put the straps over your head and the mask loosely in place. The top strap goes at the top back of your head just below the occipital protuberance, not over your hears. The bottom strap goes at the base of your skull.

3. Starting from the bridge of your nose, gently mold the metal strip to match your face. It should not dig in, but when you exhale, no air should come out from the top of the mask (your glasses shouldn't fog, if you wear them).

4. Stretch the bottom of the mask down over your chin with your mouth closed.

Now inhale deeply. You should feel the mask's shape crumple slightly from the negative pressure inside. If it does not, you have air leaking in from the sides. When you exhale, the mask pushes away from your face and the positive pressure of breathing out prevents contaminants from entering.

To test your fit, get a bottle of vanilla extract from the kitchen. When you hold the open bottle up to your face with a properly sealed mask, you shouldn't be able to smell it or barely be able to smell it at all. If you can, your mask isn't fit right. If you were being properly fitted there are much better tests, but this is a quick way to check.

If you have a long chin or other unusual shaped face, you may have to try a few models of mask. I generally stick with 3M's masks.

While wearing it, you can't open your mouth wide or work your jaw laterally much. You can't scrunch your nose very much. People have to get used to having the thing on their face. I don't think 3D printing rubber will change that.

That being out of the way, part of the point is that they are disposable. For smoke, it doesn't matter. Just wash it. For biocontamination, being able to autoclave and dispose of the thing is...kind of important.

So, no, I wouldn't buy one.
The article provides an example of what you're asking for:

> "To be perfectly honest, and this is awful, but to the young, watching as the elderly over and over and over choose their own interests ahead of Climate policy kind of feels like they’re wishing us to a death they won’t have to experience. It’s a sad bit of fair play."

I find the whole generational conflict bewildering. To me, blaming "the elderly" for "the climate crisis" and "saddling us with debt" seems stupid beyond words.
I think Costco would void their membership pretty quick if they were reselling right there in the parking lot.

Edit -- but apparently that's not enough to deter some from trying:

https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/fimz9k/was_leavi...
Mortgage rate rise increases pressure for Fed intervention
I don't think your claim that you need to go all Hubei to slow or curtail the spread of an epidemic is correct. "Herd immunity" is a very well studied concept, but it depends on lots of parameters, like transmission likelihood, social exchange rate, transmissibility window, and we (as in humanity), much less you, don't have a very good idea of what those numbers are (and honestly, orgs like WHO and CDC don't either). Depending on what those numbers are, it could (making some numbers up here) be that a 20% decrease in social contact is sufficient (and the US was never doomed from the start relative to china) or maybe a 40% decrease is sufficient (and the US is probably fine now) or maybe a 90% decrease is necessary (and indeed going all Hubei is required). But given that there haven't been major outbreaks in "china outside of Hubei", I think we have good reason to suspect that maybe full authoritarian clampdown isn't necessary, and voluntary self-quarantine is likely to be effective. But who knows? Don't take my word for it. I'm just a no-longer-in-the-industry chemistry PhD that has studied some autocatalysis differential equations.

It's also possible that there are genetic components to these parameters, so what works (or doesn't) in italy might not be the same in thailand.