skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> The relationship between high-mortality events and future fertility patterns is well-established in the academic literature. Previous academic literature has shown that high-mortality events as diverse as famines, earthquakes, heatwaves, and disease all have very predictable effects on reducing births nine months later.

https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births
I'd be much more concerned about the possibility of transmission from packaging / food items bought at your local supermarket.
With the extreme measures taken in China, bars are still not open (in Shanghai where there are 300 reported cases).
In other words, eXtreme Programming.
I'm curious, why short the 3x long/bull etfs instead of going long on the 3x bear ETFs?
Curse you Bezos for your evil plan to supply us with much needed goods.
This is a great writeup. I did something similar to this. 80 songs. Everything this author says about the process is pretty much the same that i experienced, but it took me a year to figure it out and another year and a half to write and record all the music. about one song a week. Oh except I did drums differently, I found somthinig called Fat Drums (or something), a midi-based drum machine, and basically i finger drummed on my usb keyboard into a track on my DAW. it was fantastic, absolutely indistinguishable from a human drummer. oh also i used ableton as a daw, it is really good, but really anything could work. and like this author discovered, you can spend way too much time redoing takes, so i took a lot of pride on doing one or two takes and moving on. kept the creative process flowing. in fact after 80 songs, maybe 12 i thought were actually pretty good, so we formed a band, learned those songs, and played live locally for a year or so. it was fun. great job romes!!!
If we're talking about disease-based games, I highly recommend Pathologic 2. Nothing realistic there in terms of modeling disease spread or cure mechanics, it's a very artistic and somewhat abstract game, but it conveys certain social realities of being in a contagion zone really well. Among other things, it show the importance of not collectively freaking out.
If this gets extremely bad, many people will change their view. Unfortunately for them it will be too late.
> people are naturally resistant to being told to make huge sacrifices almost solely for the benefit of another group of people

This has gotta be the most nihilistic thing I've ever read. And I spend time on Reddit.

The ascendance of humanity is due to a) our brains, and b) our aggregating into communities and working for collective benefit. Our entire existence disproves your hyper-libertarian/utilitarian notion.

Then again, clearly some people hold this perverse idea... which explains the random edge lords on Twitter bragging about violating social distancing protocols.
Hubei mandated that anyone who was outdoors wears a mask. They didn't mandate that anyone who was outdoors wears gloves.

Disposable latex gloves are cheaper and easier to access in China than masks and yet China prioritized masks.
Most web starter kits are about the same as this these days...
Which area are you in?

Every large retail store is open (so far) in Southern California, with most retailers' inventory being purchased at full retail prices.

I am not sure why the retailers don't switch to curbside-pickup model exclusively, instead preferring hordes of customers roaming around every single morning, but from what I hear, Instacart and store-specific delivery programs are overwhelmed.
I’m not a fan of asocial, it sounds passive, ambivalent. I’ll keep using anti-social for this, since anti-societal would be more apt for that concept.
Ask HN: Have you had the Corona virus?
The title says it all, did anybody here contract the virus (and was confirmed)? If so, what was that like? Secondary, do you know people that have had the virus? What was the outcome, how did it impact them?
2008 was a liquidity crisis and credit crunch so everything got margin called across asset classes, what’s great about 2020 is that hasn’t happened, yet. Great meaning the fireworks have yet to go off.
Certainly, it seems like there's more bad information than good.

E.g. The beds are already full EVERY flu season. Do the researcher's know this? The flu has killed over 12,000 people every year in the US for the last 10 years.

2 years ago, the flu killed 61,000 people in the US.

So, the logical question might be: Why haven't we been "flattening the curve" for years?

Roll forward to Coronavirus and a news media publicizing a "novel" flu that spreads and kills and maims at about the same rate and suddenly we're all running around like crazy trying to destroy the economy and our livelyhoods to "flatten the curve".

Our politicians, who literally have no plan, are making grand pronouncements bravely shutting down everything they can think of because they completely f'd-up the testing and tracking of the coronavirus and literally have no idea what else to do, but know they don't want to be the one at the center of one of those circles showing the number of sick in each city.

*Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html.
Such a simple and reassuring answer, why can’t we have that in America?
Did an experimental drug help a U.S. coronavirus patient?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/did-experimental-dru...

As the coronavirus spreads, a drug that once raised the world’s hopes is given a second shot

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/remdesivir-surges-ahead-...
Microsoft developers always discovered that the UI controls you see in apps like Word, Excel, Visio, etc were never available on any of these libraries or frameworks. Don't forget WTL in the list.
The president and the most popular news network have been downplaying the severity for weeks. The US is absurdly behind other countries in testing. We've tested less people total than South Korea tests in a single day. And cases are being overlooked left and right. No one I know in NYC has been tested. Multiple folks were in public situations with possibly infected tourists. One was exposed to a confirmed case via a third party and got the symptoms right on schedule. No tests available. Everyone was told they're only testing if respiratory distress occurs and to stay home and take Dayquil.
It's not anything like the parable of the broken windows, because installing safety equipment makes people's lives better, while breaking windows does not.
Most of that changed as of 5 hours ago.
Low-Cost Arduino-Based Ventilator
Near universal masking reduced the rate of all infectious diseases, including influenza down to near zero. The size of the virus is irrelevant, it's the size of the carrier medium which is droplets that are very effective at being caught in masks.
WinRT and the UWP XAML framework built on it were already designed to support multiple languages and language runtimes (well, C++ and C# anyway, but theoretically other languages; they're working on Rust support). It's also been possible to use it in a Win32 app since Windows 19H1 with XAML Islands. WinUI 3 will make this easier though, and decouple the framework from the OS so it can work on older Windows (10/10X) releases, so those are the new aspects here.
Source:
http://procrastineering.blogspot.com/2020/03/low-cost-ventil...
The always said they thought the peak was 10-14 weeks away and that the UK was about 4 weeks behind Italy. They now say that the UK is about 3 weeks behind italy and we are at the beginning of the dramatic up-swing so, time to apply the brakes.
Ahem, that’s “Doctor” Evil.
> after selfishly spending billions on stock buybacks

I've been seeing this on twitter a lot. Is there some context you can provide for why these particular repurchases were in bad taste, given no awareness of the upcoming pandemic. I am assuming you don't view repurchases as 'selfish' generally.
> You're sitting significantly higher than most traffic, giving you a much better idea of what is going on around you.

This also comes with a higher center of gravity which makes it more difficult to control the vehicle during emergency situations

> -Mirrors tend to be very large by car standards, further enhancing your awareness.

Larger vehicles tend to have bigger blindspots (even with properly adjusted mirrors)

> While riding tall, they are often both relatively short and narrow, further easing your life in traffic.

But you still have a higher center of gravity and worse vehicle handling as a result. Trying to swerve around something or make an emergency lane change makes it more likely you'll lose control of the vehicle

> Oh, and winters.

This is more a factor of the type of tires used and how many wheels are driven. My all-wheel drive vehicles do very well in the winters when equipped with snow tires.

> Anecdata - my Land Cruiser is shorter and narrower than my wife's VW Passat, has more than twice the trunk space and just over half the turn radius.

How would your Land Cruiser do in the moose test versus the VW Passat?

This is the video[1] of a Toyota Hilux during that test. And this is a video[2] of a VW Passat. Note that the first video was done while the driver was going 37 mph. The second was at 45 mph.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoHbn8-ROiQ

[2] https://www.motor1.com/news/388271/euro-spec-vw-passat-moose...
>That's a subjective political opinion of a far-left vocal minority

What you are talking about is Right-wing politics, even if they are extremely far to the left of your -and the majority of peoples political view -in the USA. Both parties in the US are on the right. This isn't Reddit where the state of US politics is the default norm when it differs from most of planet earth. Though HN is quickly getting there.
Except that CDC disagrees:

Herpes:

https://www.cdc.gov/std/herpes/treatment.htm

Is there a cure or treatment for herpes?
There is no cure for herpes. Antiviral medications can, however, prevent or shorten outbreaks during the period of time the person takes the medication. In addition, daily suppressive therapy (i.e. daily use of antiviral medication) for herpes can reduce the likelihood of transmission to partners.

Several clinical trials have tested vaccines against genital herpes infection, but there is currently no commercially available vaccine that is protective against genital herpes infection. One vaccine trial showed efficacy among women whose partners were HSV-2 infected, but only among women who were not infected with HSV-1. No efficacy was observed among men whose partners were HSV-2 infected. A subsequent trial testing the same vaccine showed some protection from genital HSV-1 infection, but no protection from HSV-2 infection.

Ebola:

https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/treatment/index.html

Antiviral Drugs
There is currently no antiviral drug licensed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to treat EVD in people.

During the 2018 eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo outbreak, four investigational treatments were initially available to treat patients with confirmed Ebola. For two of those treatments, called regeneron (REGN-EB3) and mAb114, overall survival was much higher. These two antiviral drugs currently remain in use for patients with confirmed Ebola.

Drugs that are being developed to treat EVD work by stopping the virus from making copies of itself.

TL;DR; at best we can manage.
Why a political problem? What I see is that in general people don't care enough. It's not that they don't care about privacy, they just don't care enough to change platform over it.
My reply is exactly what another commenter wrote:

>The discussion isn't about university research money and whether that is spent productively, it's about endowments, which are nothing more than investment funds.

>The question is whether it is productive to maintain large investment funds unrelated to their stated goals of education and research.

>I think the OP would be happier if those endowments were drawn down on research with uncertain benefits rather than just invested in natural resource extraction companies.

I am in favor of big research budgets, if real and valuable research is being done. I know there are a lot of uncertainties there and that there isn't always a direct 1-to-1 correlation between spending and benefit for the economy/humanity.

That is still positive sum. But it's something different. I'm referring to zero sum hoarding, not research funds.
Fantasy-land aside, Bezos is the CEO of the organization that runs the GovCloud AWS region, which is almost certainly designated critical military infrastructure, JEDI-loss aside.

I would be astounded if there are many billionaires in the USA who are not this moment already taking chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine in the recommended prophylaxis doses, even outside of those deemed mission-critical by the most powerful organization on the continent.
Incrementally flattening the curve does save incrementally many lives. It’s taken hold over “lock it down” because it rings better and is factual. You can accomplish something individually by staying inside instead of being fatalistic because nobody else will do it, and it isn’t just a platitude .
Do you have any research showing that waiting for VIX below 30 after it was high is a correct strategy? You can just test it in around 20 lines of Python or just in Excel. Or that buying in a situation like now is a bad idea? Did you run a historical backtest? Did you test the trend following and the 200-day SMA? Please share. Of course, to show that any of them are promising models, you need to do much more than just the backtests but they are first necessary steps.

If you haven't done this then you really shouldn't give authoritative-sounding advice here.
It's an interesting idea, but seems like that proposal would have to compared to the alternative of vaccination.

There's already a vaccine which has been created and which entered the first phase of trials today (https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/16/first-stage-of-covid-...). If we're going for a radical plan (which, hope you're not offended, is how I'd characterize your proposal), then just skipping those trials and going straight to giving people that vaccine should be on the table.

So then you'd have to compare safety and efficacy of that against this vaccine. I'm not an expert at all, but it seems like we basically don't know the answer to any of those questions.

* We think that you can't get reinfected once you've had COVID-19. But we aren't sure.

* I don't think a method of predicting symptom severity (like you suggested) has been created, so we don't know its reliability.

* We also don't know if any of the new vaccines are safe.

* Nor do we know if any of the new vaccines are effective.
Do you really not see what bitfinex is doing?… it’s almost painfully obvious they are manipulating the market.
Consumer price inflation is mostly a monetary phenomenon. The increased money supply is only one side of the equation. We must also subtract the deflationary effects of debt defaults. Banks create new money by issuing loans, and when debtors default the banks are forced to write down the value of those loans. Thus money which formerly existed in the financial system vanishes.

So for the next year or so as defaults accelerate I expect that deflation will be a larger concern than inflation, and central banks will try to counter that by large, frequent injections of new money.
Like I wrote in the other comment, you can ride your bike to work/the grocery store in Italy, just not go for training rides.

If you want to really start factoring stuff in to how healthy or not it is, you should factor in the sedentary lifestyle that too much driving leads to, as well.
Not the type of bonds that give returns. Anything that's yielding more than 0% real (higher than 2.5% nominal), like high yield bonds (4-5%) are way down, even high yield muni bonds are down 20% or more from their peaks.
Great write-up. People don't realise, this was instrumental to the success of Billie Eilish. She and her brother make their music in a tiny bedroom studio and you can't argue with the results. The trove of available VST plugins for mastering, mixing and instruments are vast and most of them are affordable for those who are serious about pursuing bedroom recording.
Unfortunately, React Native is inherently tied to UWP and the Microsoft Store, which are both utter failures IMO. When people use Windows they expect an open computing environment. They expect custom installers, apps that can scan other process' memory (e.g, Cheat Engine), etc. They don't want Apple's walled garden in Windows. This is especially true in corporations where IT, not Microsoft, act as the ultimate authority over a machine.
I'm not saying everyone is rational, I'm just saying there is no reliable way of predicting when the market has bottomed out.

DCA-ing on the way down means I will at least buy lower than a year ago. I have no way of knowing when we will bottom out, or if it will be -25%, -30% or -50% and beyond.
My neighborhood has eight houses per acre. We've had no problems with stolen packages even when left out overnight. This is the exurban fringe of metro Atlanta.
Hm, if you change amount of beds total deaths don't change in their model.
Same. Definitely an abundance of caution but if you have the space it can’t hurt.
I needed to cover both types of padding to be complete. So I mentioned both types.

For structure and union fields padding/alignment, the implementation must document that padding/alignment somewhere. So you would be able to look it up from the manual ahead of time. It's not undefined behavior.
Even if there was - testing and controlled-infecting 50% of the population would be a huge effort and probably not shorter than isolating old people and allowing an uncontained infection to burn through.

But the big problem is that it might not even help, the worst case scenario is that absent a vaccine the virus becomes just a more infectious and deadlier cold that people risk getting every season.
GitHub acquires NPM, an open source JavaScript package manager
Here are a few first hand accounts:

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/coronavirus-patient-from-diamo... (video)

https://www.adn.com/opinions/national-opinions/2020/03/01/i-...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/don-t-panic-says-us-woman-...

All three of these cases were very mild, didn't require hospitalization, and the people made a full recovery in a few days without any treatments.
The stock market is falling because (a) individuals and businesses are liquidating positions to have cash on hand and (b) people are worried that, without a liquidity package from the government, major businesses are in danger of being liquidated.
I agree, but if you are prepped for a hurricane, you should be ok in this scenario.

We still have water, sewer, power, and internet.
Show HN: simple P2P group audio rooms
What other useful apps are there for physics and maths?
> Just like people think Y2K was an overblown non-issue. Because it was fixed by millions of people working hard.

Y2K was an actual issue? I thought it was purely artificial issue created by computer layman. Year 2038 is an actual issue and there's really not much fuss about it, for many years.
> > And "lately" isn't after weeks or months of substantially reduced economic activity.

> They'll be even higher if/when that happens. They're not in bonds for the interest. They're in bonds for safety and price appreciation.

Assuming someone is interested in buying those bonds, since during inflation physical assets (e.g., precious metals) tend to be what buyers prefer.
Oh, experiments in the physical world using a phone, not experimenting with the physical form of phones. Neat, just not what I assumed from the title.
iMessage is not really used outside US.
Or it’s a test to see how far they can abuse your civil liberties, like detaining you indefinitely.
> But can you make a cool logo out of "Moon"?

No, but with minor butchery you can re-use the Sun logo with the letters MMS (Moon Micro Systems) :-)
I'm not sure I would agree with that.

Measures are being taken, and the Japanese government believes that the rate of infection is still very much growing [1]. Schools have been shut down in Japan. And while the government is not actively enforcing quarantining, that may be due to bureaucratic roadblocks. [2]

[1] https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/03/8aafa8e3636c-loca...

[2] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/11/national/politi...
I'm hesitant to put this out there but selfish game theory would be to go out and get it now, before all ICU beds are filled so that if you need a bed you can still get one...
I do have experience in this area and all I can say is look at the market - injection moulded parts are literally everywhere. How often do you see 3d printed parts in commercial products?
Agreed on the talking. Especially if you are in a club before a show. Talking over the noise is taxing.
"a "novel" flu that spreads and kills and maims at about the same rate"

It's nowhere near "the same rate"?
One of the more famous “in your room” records is Sufjan Stevens’ Illinoise. Highly critically acclaimed album involving many instruments that was mostly recorded on a Shure SM57 in a Manhattan apartment. And this isn’t your bedroom EDM album, this is an album that well over 20 different classically trained musicians played on.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/pitchfork.com/thepitch/822-insi...

https://www.sageaudio.com/blog/recording/two-critically-accl...
I think the main thing is the airline industry is boom and bust, while being quite sensitive to a number of factors out of their control, but because they know they'll get bailed out by the public they have no reason to try saving to make their business robust against such things on their own. These talking points seem to be coming from this article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/opinion/airlines-bailout....
learn about SLAM that's the algorithm they all use
Want to try something fun? Install any browser in iOS and do a test. Then do the same test with Safari. Now ponder why they are exactly the same no matter which browser you install.
How could a 2-digit percentage die when the fatality rate so far is substantially lower (~3% last I saw)?
But the current order is closer to mass job loss and I don't know that the risk to young people justifies that.
Not if they're short on cash, which they will be with this panic.
Theyve only asked, tho. Legally nothing has changed. Walked by my local at 9pm and it was half full...
Here's the vice documentary on it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mutpYD0Amfk
The correct url is https://insnippets.appsmith.com/
Even online stores are running out of things.

Amazon for instance started running out of generic Tylenol and other items you're recommended to have on hand yesterday.

I was putting stuff in my cart Saturday only to have it be unavailable for the forseeable future by Sunday.

Online merely lags behind brick and mortars. They'll probably have more stuff available since you aren't browsing but searching for specific things, but for things everyone thinks they need, they won't be doing much better.
Yeah, but my point is, if you take this to a ridiculous extreme ($1B per person), this would surely cause a disaster. So somewhere between 0 and this extreme, it goes from having little effect to having a big one, and I suspect it may be non-linear.
What problems led you to that preference?
If ICUs are clogged with old folks with COVID-19, everyone else's care suffers. For example, young people who get into car accidents.

You aren't thinking of second-order effects.
Some Chinese manufacturing (or maybe a lot, I don't know) is still based on low wage advantages. Those factories are much easier to repurpose than factories in high wage countries that are optimized like race cars to maximize worker productivity. I wouldn't be surprised if a European car manufacturer would find it challenging to switch an engine factory from diesel to petrol with less than a year run up time.