skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> In layman's terms, the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months from now in the United States.

No one (serious) disputes this, and the number of cases in China and South Korea is already on the way down. The question is how many people it will kill along the way.

> only those with immune system problems are at risk

1. What immune system problem did Wenliang Li have? (If you want to say "mostly," sure, but "only" is an unsubstantiated claim.)

2. People can become asymptomatic carriers pretty easily. That's a good reason why someone with authority over groups of people that contain some at-risk folks should attempt to prevent or reduce the frequency of such gatherings, at least until we develop collective immunity or a vaccine. (Such people include CEOs, pastors, concert organizers, politicians, etc.) Furthermore, asymptomatic carriers can pass the virus onto other asymptomatic carriers, so until we've started developing some immunity, it's a good idea for even groups of entirely not-at-risk people to limit gatherings, to reduce secondary transmission to at-risk people.

People with immune system problems aren't doomed to die immediately, and it's worth taking steps to prevent them from getting infected, if you can. (Yes, people with immune system problems, older people, etc. have some chance of dying soon anyway. But everyone is going to die at some point. It is a widely-accepted moral principle that this doesn't excuse causing people to die early.)

> secondary bacterial infection sets in, commonly known as pneumonia

This is incorrect - SARS-CoV-2 is unusual in that it's capable of causing pneumonia on its own, without a secondary bacterial infection. Antibiotics won't help. See, for instance, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... .

> Overall, the threat that this virus poses to most people and society in general has been overblown by the for-profit media.

What's the profit angle here? What's the benefit to big media from people being unwilling to attend movies and concerts?

Meanwhile, how do you explain the absolute terror in the voices of medical professionals unaffiliated with the media, such as https://twitter.com/tina_nguyen/status/1238879814863519744 or https://left.it/2020/03/13/covid_19-open-letter-from-italy-t... (or, you know, Wenliang Li)?
This page says it includes public health labs, but as far as I know quite a bit of the US' testing capacity is private labs (at least 30% according to [1].) Does anyone know if those are included here? And if not, where a good total count can be found?

[1] https://twitter.com/COVID2019tests/status/123923123482549043...
Also, the logical conclusion of that argument is we should do more about vehicle accidents, not ignore Covid-19!
If I noticed anything in the past months it is that it hardly matters if you are an expert. There never was punishment for being wrong for hypotheticals. People just don't know. The WHO when declaring emergency said: "We don't know the damage this virus can do". Even this week professors in statistics compare the Italy crisis to heart attacks and their models all fall apart within a week.
Show HN: We wrote TLDR versions of 400 tech articles for developers
Well you probably should have cited a more credible award so
For sure, but the problem is that innumerable true situations might give rise to a given "observed" logistic curve - something that you can describe with two parameters arose from a mix of incomprehensibly complex transmission dynamics and dauntingly difficult (and often hidden) observation mechanisms. The result is that, even though after the fact we can often achieve a good fit with simple models, there's little reason to expect that simple models would have been generally predictive - the feedback loop even includes the models, since they might inform public health policy!

This isn't to say that modelling isn't useful, but that forecasting a novel infection while it's ongoing is really, really, really hard.

Edit: Also, I’d be interested to see a comparison of the fit between a typical logistic, four parameter logistic, Gompertz etc. Not all sigmoids are the same.
Certainly, but you're making the assumption that Google does assume that.

Its completely possible to have different alerting setups for different binaries, and consider CPU throttling to not be a page-worthy issue for GFEs, but to be page-worthy for GCP jobs.
Younger people are even lesser likely to need intensive care IMHO. So the numbers should be lesser for hospitalisation too.
I don't know how much of the claim that those countries are more "altruistic" than China is true. For the sake of argument, let's assume it is true.

I ask you this: must a country be "altruistic"? Is it wrong for a country to look after its own interest?

Clearly, if there interest conflicts with yours, then there is a problem -- but that is a problem regardless of whether they are normally altruistic.

But as long as their interests don't conflict with yours, is it wrong to be "selfish" (or a more charitable interpretation: "to mind one's own business")?

And even if a country helps another not for altruistic reasons, but because there is something to gain, then is there anything wrong with that? Isn't that also called a win-win? Donating and being altruistic is a neutral-win, but couldn't one argue that win-win deals are more sustainable?
The risk is also not so much to individuals (well, indirectly) but rather to the healthcare system collapsing.

Seems logical, though, that someone as self-centered and egomaniacal as Musk thinks of individual risk.
The amount of misinformation/unverifiable information going on around internet communities right now is really showcasing a huge problem with our modern society.

There are no facts anymore, because nothing and nobody can be trusted.
That would be for a homogeneous spread inside a country.

However if the epidemic spreads from region to region, you could reach a local herd immunity in the first regions infected way before seing the country-wide curve becoming linear.

But thanks, trying to find a counter-argument to your post made me realize a single-curve model probably doesn't make a lot of sense to try and understand accurately the spread of an epidemic.
However, we're discussing it now, because there's a presidential election underway whose winner will presumably determine regulatory and economic policy in regards to climate change in both the short and long terms.
From someone who praised Musk for pretty much everything he did (except that "pedo guy" comment), I'm starting to revise my opinion on him.
Either he is incredibly ill informed about the thing or he is blatantly lying to the public for fears of Tesla stocks plummeting.
Someone should ask him if a driver who had a car accident can "infect" people nearby so that they'll have accidents themselves too.
I think the one reason hereditary right for particular positions is good because it ensures stability, but means that people in power have the ability to learn and grow. They also have the power to ignore self interest groups from lobby because they don't have to worry about their money to survive.

I'm not saying traditional feudalism is good, but we're all lying to ourselves if we don't realize the concept still exists today. It's just been masked by a more complicated bureaucracy with a more stratified hierarchy. Everybody knows a Duke tiers above a count and a count above a baron. Nobody knows whether a senior accountant and ma and pas accounting is better than a manager at blank accounting firm.
If I recall, in addition to ignoring the patent, the Chinese company is taking the Gilead drug, repurposing it and then owning a new patent for the Corona virus...
Lack of empathy?
The dictator-like control he exerts over his organizations is frankly disgusting. Part of the deal in signing up is to go along with practically any decision "EM" makes. There is a monoculture there that it seems most employees agree with. Elon overrode and reversed the decision making of his subordinates in keeping all orgs completely open.
I’d say you can go back to Blake’s “dark satanic mills” for some of those critiques. The anti-industrialist strain of Romanticism is almost as old as industrialism itself.
The Berlin Philharmonic is doing the same: https://www.digitalconcerthall.com/en/home
some of the results had me laughing out loud. it would be super useful if it worked though. its a Hard problem.
lol at a car company ceo highlighting how dangerous cars are.

Hmm! Maybe we should stop doubling down on automobile oriented infrastructure and rely on something safer instead.
Also “Fuck Society that doesn’t do that” [you are Swiss?] Am I understanding you correctly?

That’s grossly insulting and jingoistic. Maybe you should rethink your nationalism and arrogance.
The Royal Opera House YouTube channel also has extraordinary content with incredible production values https://www.youtube.com/user/RoyalOperaHouse
"Massive amounts" to me sounds like at least the max dose for at least a week.

Taking 2 ibuprofen in a day against a flu like headache is what your doctor recommends, probably. Not exactly a massive amount even if repeated for a week.
I think it's a 100% legit comparison to make, as long as you say "but, if these numbers change (and many experts believe they will), we will update this advice".
Don't Buy Flagship Smartphones
UOL is a leftist website.
I don't think number of tests is of much interest currently - it's not very important, in terms of required action, if US has 10k or 100k infected.
We'll soon see how America's broken healthcare system combines with its undocumented immigrants and homeless.
Ye, right, the DDoS and security incidents Linode had are absolutely no issue.
Google: COVID-19, How we’re continuing to help
How to Use Gatsby with Agility CMS as a Headless CMS
Last time I rented one. Next time I'm moving houses, I'll rent another. Chances are it'll be electric.
Some infections that people identify as common colds are coronaviruses. There's dozens of other viruses that cause colds, with most infections being a different family of viruses (rhinovirus [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold]).

It's probably not a good idea to make concrete assumptions about a specific virus from the family it belongs to. A good place to look when starting to characterize, not necessarily a complete guide to how the virus will interact with our immune systems.
> "The temperature is on a trajectory to breach the machine's operating limit in N minutes" seems pretty actionable.

For who?

For an application, the job will just get rescheduled onto a different machine, and you're N+2 or whatever so no one will notice the restart.

For the datacenter, since (for most jobs) you can assume that no one will care, you don't necessarily monitor for single machines overheating, but rack or row level issues, if a machine keeps overheating, eventually "nothing runs on this machine for more than an hour without it restarting" -symptom based alerting kicks in and tells someone to look at the machine.
A conservative would probably answer that any conservative is happy to give his life for god, queen and country. And the Tories might say that winning an election is less important than the future of Britain.

I certainly hope "how can we avoid our voters dying and kill of those of the other party" isn't a factor in the decisions.
If Musk keeps going this way it won’t be long before we will equate him with Lex Luthor instead of Tony Stark.
Optimization suggestions? woww
Elon Musk and Jack Ma should have a round 2 debate on the coronavirus after their previous AI debate last year.

Let's see how the Internet will react this time.
Realize this is a non-technical problem that won't be solved by an App with location tracking and ad-based monetization model...

Follow the CDC advice, wash your hands, social distancing, encouraging smart policies at your company. Avoid contact with the elderly and stop thinking you're so smart surely YOU'RE the one who's going to solve this problem (with your magical skillset to build CRUD apps).
They’ve never had a message of rapid herd immunity, unless by rapid you mean spread out over 6-8 months. The whole point is to avoid either a slow burn (where it comes back at the worst time in winter) or a fast burn (where health services are overwhelmed).

Maybe their models are wrong, maybe other approaches will work better, but I like they are having an honest grown up discussion about it instead of insisting eradication is possible, or that there are no tradeoffs to be made and total global lockdown of society for 6 months is the answer (which apart from being of questionable efficacy would certainly cause another Great Depression and more deaths from poverty).
Entertaining. Excerpt:

> Cold War strategy was filled with oxymorons like "limited nuclear war," but the backpack nuke was perhaps the most darkly comic manifestation of an age struggling to deal with the all-too-real prospect of Armageddon. The SADM was a case of life imitating satire. After all, much like Slim Pickens1 in the iconic finale of Dr. Strangelove, American soldiers would strap on atomic bombs and jump out of airplanes as part of the opening act of World War III.

> From the Army's perspective, the problem was that bombers and missiles were managed by the Air Force and the Navy, leaving the ground force out of arguably the most significant development in the history of war, even as its soldiers would be chiefly responsible for stopping a Soviet invasion of Western Europe. Fortunately for the Army, many U.S. strategists still saw nukes simply as bigger conventional bombs, and America's post-Hiroshima mastery of the cutting-edge science of atomic destruction had filled weapons designers more with a sense of the possible than the prudent. The result was a series of odd creations that made their way into the Army's arsenal, from atomic artillery to nuclear-tipped air-defense missiles.
The Last Giraffes on Earth
That's odd. They must have done something impossibly wrong.
It would probably make more sense to use the Archive Team's existing wiki meant to "solve the file format problem".

http://fileformats.archiveteam.org
Explain to me how this comparison makes sense.
Optical and infrared sensors have improved a lot and can be a useful supplement but due to limited field of view and interference from weather you generally can't count on them for primary search. Unless the target is really time sensitive, B-2 mission planners try to fly at night in bad weather when those sensors are seriously degraded.
Why is a churned out (in the market) product less exciting than an idea with no proof / implementation?
I was thinking this too, but I'm not convinced the gift card idea, as it stands, will work for all businesses. There needs to be some creative thinking to make it truly help small businesses.

Gift cards are a deferred liability -- they help cash flow now but in the future when everybody redeems them, they're going to eat away at future income, which doesn't leave the mom and pop store necessarily in a better state. The hope is: (1) a large percentage of folks never redeem their gift cards; (2) mom-and-pops can accommodate the increased demand in the future and still make future income. (3) they can set really limited expiry dates. But if these assumptions are not true, they will still have to close. (but yes, let's do gift cards for businesses where these assumptions are true)

In some cases, gift cards are not useful especially for non-scalable businesses like barbershops, which have a finite number of appointment slots. Gift cards just delay the inevitable. Barbers can extend hours and open up more slots but they might never catch up.

A more appealing idea is a temporary UBI but then we're wading into political territory. And even with a UBI, it doesn't help businesses with uncertain demand and perishable inventories.

I really want to help small businesses: any thoughts from other folks here? Is there something else we can do? Are there good/better solutions?
I'm going through the AWK book and join is in there. I was unhappily surprised to find that using a tab as a delimiter is painful with join.
Variations to overcome this which I've bumped into:

join -t $'\t' file1 file2 (BASH only, I think.)
join -t '<CTRL+v><Tab>' file1 file2
join -t "`echo '\t'`" file1 file2

Why 'join -t '\t' file1 file2' is apparently beyond the pale has me mystified.
I'd say obscurity is a core part behind the idea of using Minecraft for this. Unless someone builds a tool to search books in Minecraft worlds there is no way to automatically verify if the world contains government critical information. You'd have to go inside the virtual library and read every single book. Compared to that a wikipedia mirror would just be instantly blocked because a government crawler is searching for keywords and blocking DNS access to the crawled sites.
I think the UK plan is based on some sobering truths that others are just not prepared to acknowledge (yet):

1. You can't shut down the economy indefinitely. At least not if your goal is to minimize fatalities. And if you don't do that, your "quarantine" is not going to be effective

2. You can't maintain quarantine for more than a month or two, after which your epidemic simply re-starts, and you don't get to re-impose the quarantine then because the first quarantine "failed".

3. Vaccine is over a year out in the best case, assuming it works at all. If it's anything like the flu vaccine, chances of it working reliably on mutated strains are approximately nil.

4. Younger people tolerate the disease much better, and if they build up immunity to it while the senior population self-isolates, the overall number of deaths could be minimized.

5. Due to how widespread and virulent this is, it will just become the "new flu", and it will come back with mutations every year. We can't do what we're doing now every year, at least not if the goal is to minimize deaths.
Dude, just read the article. The first few lines make it clear that Mr. Bakker and his fake expert were absolutely trying to dupe people in to thinking that some nonsense-juice would cure the current corona virus. They even said it would cure SARS - another virus that has no cure. That’s fraud. I, for one, am heartened that we are finally seeing society not give a pass to complete idiots because “faith”. I almost wept when the manslaughter sentence was upheld against the faith-healing parents in Oregon who let their perfectly treatable baby die because “faith”. I never thought I would see the day. Well done Missouri.
> People regularly become ill with a cold due to a coronavirus and may catch the same one about 4 months later.

> This is because coronavirus antibodies do not last for a long time. Also, the antibodies for one strain of coronavirus may be ineffective against another one.

> The general trend of IgM peaking at ≈1 month after symptom onset and IgG peaking at 2–4 months was consistent among different studies.
At this point, hospitalization basically implies ventilation. Hospitals are crowded. If they were just going to give you a bed and some pills, they'd have you do that at home.

France reports that half their patients in critical care are under 60, which is supposed to be the "low risk" group.
Let's not forget that the US did that with the Anthrax vaccination.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2001/oct/23/anthrax.bus...
100s of 1000s. Adorable.
Stop with the fear-mongering, it was not going to kill millions.
I'll keep that in mind for future interaction with rustc, thanks. Just to double check, you are referring to Github issues on the rust-lang/rust repository, right?
I see him as someone who thinks in a 100% "for the benefit of mankind" kind of way, but then has to modify his comments to appeal to his audience.

The anti-public transport is exactly that. He realises public transport is exactly what the world needs, but his audience is car-addicted americans. Instead he proposes a tunnel cars can drive along on sleds... And later people pods, that look not-so-different from subway carriages... And later still suggests that people-pods will happen first before the car-sleds.
In a week or two. There will be a great need for volunteers when medical personal have fallen ill themselves or are breaking down. Tolls to help organize those volunteers could help put a lot.
Minecraft is essentially a coarse CAD tool with an approachable UX.
This is a really fun use of GPT-2. Uncannily similar to DFW's own writing! And definitely got a hearty laugh out of long strings of "Jim. Jim, Jim. Jim, Jim, Jim, Jim.". Would love to see this extended further!
Fish rot from the head.
> Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly.

Harder to detect I would see in a strain that has a longer asymptomatic spread period. The only way for a virus to escape a strong quarantine and survive is to survive on surfaces longer, be asymptomatic longer, cause more severe illness (spread through cough and sneezes, especially in hospitals), linger in the air longer, etc.
You're confusing the freedom of association with censorship. If nobody wants to publish him, it's either an ethical decision of people who don't want to associate with known rapists, or a business decision of people who don't think his works will sell well.
Try this exercise:

- Google the # of hospital beds in the UK

- Google the # of ventilators in the UK

- Pick your own fraction as to how many are currently available

- pick your own fraction of 40mm that will require hospitalization

- pick your own fraction of 40mm that will require ventilation

- Make your assumptions fit the # of hospital beds and ventilators

I haven't done all the arithmetic, but my gut says you will end up assuming that people in the "young" bucket are all essentially immune to severe forms of the disease. This is at odds with evidence in e.g. France, which would indicate a problem with your assumptions.
> Let us determine if it's possible or not. The person who currently works on errors is of the opinion that any time the error isn't useful, it's a bug.

That's a fantastic attitude and I really appreciate that someone is working towards that goal, thanks.

> It's just a ton of work. You look at what the compiler produces, look at what information you can have at that point, see if you can craft something better, and then ship. And then look at the next error.

Exactly. That person is a saint.
From the figures, it looks like 10% of young are still severe pneumonia’s [0]. Not all of those require respirators or ITU, but quite a few will.
The figures depend _hugely_ on the number of sub clinical/mild infections. The UK experts have public ally said they believe the overall mortality rate is at or below 1%. Given a global mortality of ~3% it appears they are assuming two thirds are so mild they didn’t present for testing. You must assume this is based on some evidence not available to the rest of us, or from some simulation based on other findings.

[0] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
Interesting for sure. When I've first heard reports of ibuprofen + CoV-19, I went to check out what Harvard Health was recommending [0].

Under "What treatments are available to treat coronavirus?":

Currently there is no specific antiviral treatment for COVID-19. However, similar to treatment of any viral infection, these measures can help...
...
Take acetaminophen, ibuprofen, or naproxen to reduce fever and ease aches and pains. Be sure to follow directions. If you are taking any combination cold or flu medicine, keep track of all the ingredients and the doses. For acetaminophen, the total daily dose from all products should not exceed 3,000 milligrams.

So it seems there is no widespread consensus on the matter for now. North American professionals, from what I've seen on social media, tend to disagree with their European colleagues on the matter.

Personally, I remain somewhat skeptical until there's more data available.

[0] https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coron...