skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
First you allow all shops to be opened, then few weeks later open public places like gyms, museums etc, another few weeks later you open borders again, even later allow some mass events etc.
After every lift you wait at least two weeks to see how much it increases number of new cases and you balance it so that healthcare system does not get overwhelmed.
Looting a Twitter office who's sent all their employees home on the other hand.. pretty risk-free.

The problem is that to really be risk-free, you need everyone converging on the idea simultaneously, so that the police are overwhelmed -- this has happened with toilet paper.. whether it'll happen with looting corporate offices is to be seen. For now though, it's still pretty risky.
No, the world is much more interconnected than in the 30s. This can get a lot more ugly if it lasts multiple months. People were also a lot more used to rough conditions in the 30s and the general population is totally unprepared today. This will either pass in 1-2 months at most or we are looking at revolution or military dictatorship.
at some point enough people have had it that we can get some herd immunity kicking in
How is it possible that SK has performed such an extensive testing, while other developped country state they don't have the technical ability to do more than a few thousands tests a week.. Did SK developp its own technics and device for testing ??
If you look at table one it gives you numbers and severity by age. Ignore the percentages quoted (that’s percentage of patients by age in certain groups which isn’t very useful) and look at the raw data. 67/550 in the 19-50 age range are severe. So >10% of those in the study. What isn’t known is the proportion of mild cases not included in the study group.

If you look in methodology (search for severity), severity is defined by severity of the pneumonia according to American criteria. So these columns refer to how bad the pneumonia is.
Herd immunity is what Italy is doing. I guess their economy is more severely impacted than South Korea's. I don't know.
Don't be patient 31

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER...

(but really, in USA too late, everyone is out and about coughing on each other)
Some guy in Philly who talked to an "intensivist" in Seattle that we get to hear about 3rd hand? Hmm, ok.
The reporting is matched by many very reputable broadcasters and confirmed by government officials on record.
What's the point in closing everything down? What happens when it reopens? Will the virus admit defeat and run away?
Earlier this weekend Trump said he could have fired Powell but choose not too. Imagine you were Powell, what would you do?
I'm a beginner Kubernetes user and kubectl is pretty user friendly in my opinion, but people like GUIs a lot, especially when you want to explore a cluster you haven't created yourself (much easier than going through a ton of yaml).

K8s isn't made to fix Docker, but rather the problems caused by having to run quite many micro-services. The system it was inspired by predates Docker by many years (Google's borg).
Savings become investments. When you "save" money in a bank, the bank uses that money to create loans.
I'm sorry to sound so cynical, but I have never seen so many statisticians and virologists pop up on the internet drawing all sorts of graphs and estimates.

For all we know this person got their numbers by just guesstimating. Most countries have differing "exposure vectors" so to say, which means that just comparing other countries to Italy is nonsense.
The thing is, it will be a financial crisis at some point once people start loosing their jobs and can't afford to pay bills in addition to a medical disaster no-one can pay for.
Apparently blocked due to a German court case in 2018 [1]. Did a notice like the one in the article appear when you accessed the website?

[1] https://www.ghacks.net/2018/03/04/project-gutenberg-blocks-a...
For UK people: here is a discord server were we are trying to share information regionally and locally (teachers, students, professionals etc.)

https://discord.gg/prydRc
Right now the official explanation is that we're quite good with testing and isolating cases so far, which would mean that the confirmed count right now is much closer to the actual count than in Italy (or the US).

On Twitter the opinion seems mostly to be that the death cause is doctored.

I'm kinda hoping for the first, right now, because the projections aren't pretty (even if we're a bit further behind Italy). We only now started shutting down schools, and most events and even that is spotty as every state does its own thing and sometimes even every city.
Python can be embedded into C applications as a library.
The virus "jumped" because people were clueless about it, and missing even the slightest precautions. No washing hands, no wearing masks, no social distancing even among total strangers, etc. etc. There's no way this will happen again with the same ease.
Once you have large scale testing available, you can do heavy testing in a region to determine the risk, and then you can release quarantine on regions where there are no infections.

Control is much easier if testing is cheap and ubiquitous, and quarantines can start to become a lot more targeted as opposed to widespread.
Exactly. 2 weeks ago this was a worry but not significant as evidence by current ICU fill rates. Expect Washington, hopefully the rest of the country doesn't follow
Presumably a large portion of "armed looters" you'd expect in a public unrest situation are also untrained.

Trained > untrained

Untrained gun > no gun

No gun == no gun
Kubernetes is doing much more than managing docker. Please at least read their documentation about the overview what are the main features.
To assume good faith in your question: the point is to slow the spread, and to flatten the curve so that the hospital system is not overburdened and that as few people as possible that need emergency critical medical care fail to receive it.
> If Kubernetes management is a problem, fix Kubernetes. Ultimately, Docker should be fixed so that kubernetes is not needed.

totally agree.

someone asked earlier why docker swarm is not used in production or not even talked or written about? what are the issues and is anyone trying to fix them?

i honestly don't know either.

but i feel that, on top of us piling things on top of things, we are now also running a kind of popularity show for tools and to some extend languages. whereas the most popular tool is claimed the best and the one everybody should use.

you'd get crucified if you did otherwise...
That happened when Bush was president. Get your timeline straight.
The point is to avoid causing a giant spike in ER visits that end up overwhelming the system.
Lehman Brothers? September 2008, before Obama was even elected.

So, how does that change your view?
We really need band-aids now, like in 2008. The problem is not the band-aid now, the problem is that we did not rip it off in the good times but instead spent all the money in irresponsible tax cuts for people that didn't need them.
Seegene, a private company, did

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-...
> How is it possible that SK has performed such an extensive testing

They made it an institutional priority. Other governments prioritized messaging and fiscal measures over medical action.

> Did SK developp its own technics and device for testing

Yes, but so did a number of other countries [1]. Seoul had no "secret sauce" [2]. Just institutional attention and competence.

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31987001?dopt=Abstract
> monitoring infection on a wide-spread basis

Temperature checks in every commercial, retail and residential building and mode of public transportation?

> maintaining measures that lower how contagious it is

Masks for all? Expecting 20 sec handwashing vigilance to stay indefinitely? Restaurant tables and desks at work kept meters apart?

I’m wondering what the new normal looks like and how well it will be implemented in western countries.
So is it an email (SMTP/IMAP/POP) client or not?
Closing everything down will spread out new infections so the healthcare system can handle them, and it buys time to roll out a testing process.
This is effectively how you print money in a modern economy. They're giving banks access to a lot more cash and have reduced reserve requirements to 0%, meaning that banks can loan new money without limitation and without fear that they'll be able to borrow to cover those loans.

Most money is not actually on paper, so the amount you print is not the point.
You are ignoring bond markets, which is playing a huge factor in getting away from stocks.
It's probably referencing the quantitative easing plan which is being presented as analogous to debasement of coinage.
Understand it or not, that's how a lot of people think of it--those are the facts on the ground. And one of the upsides of that condition is that the economy hasn't yet been completely blown to bits, because not everyone is taking things so seriously.

Pandemic is a big-picture word. The average family will be far more affected by the results of serious people taking things too seriously than they will by the virus itself. The reason my neighbor can't go to the store and buy TP has nothing to do with the specifics of an illness and everything to do with over-serious, poorly-calibrated perceptions. (Downvote away, but that doesn't change the world condition)
If a bank had reserves before now is the time to use them. In a few months they need to rebuild those reserves for whatever is next.
Suicide or destitution maybe.
Be Very Afraid of Being Too Afraid
Congrats on illustrating that you don’t know what you don’t know. Life must be so simple and safe living in that Plato’s cave of yours.

I don’t use Lisp; I’m not a fan of Lisp itself. I am a fan of what Lisp lets you do which C does not: take an existing language and make it into a better one; one that serves your needs, not the assumptions of its creators.

Whereas I have and do use C. And I constantly lament the utter uselessness of C’s macro system, which makes it impossible to reshape or improve C as a language in any way that counts.

You see, I don’t actually have a problem with C’s minimal interest in safety or high-level expressibility. It was after all built to do a very constrained, low-level, one-time job: implement a kernel, where safe program execution may reasonably be considered the expert implementor’s responsibility. I do have a problem with not being able to extend C into a safe high-level one; not that that’s stopped millions of know-it-all C weenies such as [presumably] yourself taking it and mashing it into domains it is ill suited for (high-level applications programming).

..

You’re all so proud of the monster you’ve built; so when your C program eats your users’ data because a buffer blew or a pointer dangled, well that’s their tough luck, isn’t it. Not your problem for using an inherently, unfixably, unsafe tool in the first place. And definitely not C’s for not being capable of raising itself up, only dragging everyone else down.

’Cos let’s not pretend these dumbshit foot guns of yours don’t have a very valid use: keeping the dumb outsider riff-raff like me out of your private personal playground. Alas, I’m an exceptionally persistent SOB: I may despise writing code, and loathe the lousy languages you lot provide to do it, but I absolutely love the solutions I provide despite all those barriers you put in my way, and my users love them too—and that is the only judgement that counts.

That I happen to evolve new languages and develop deeper insights into a culture and philosophy of language design that is both utterly alien and utterly above and beyond you, well, yes, you got me there: I am feeling a tad smug about that right now. But only cos you’re being a reactionary dick. I went down that route not to be clever or superior, but because it was the only way I could hope to solve the problems I’ve got using the very limited wetware tools I have. And it worked.

So maybe try humility sometime, and realize that all your C languages, for all their popularity and influence, are but one tiny, samey, undistinguished facet in a whole vast rich infinitely colored world of computational thinking of which I know just a little and you know nothing at all. And then get back to me; who knows, we might even have something positive to talk about.
...just about a century ago, and only about 25 years later, the atomic bomb was realized. It makes you wonder what 2045 will bring as you look around at quantum computing and biotechnology.
Hey! I'm the founder of ReadMe, and we'd love to have you :) We can help with the technical docs and let you focus on the API itself
One freeway down, still plenty more we need to be rid of
It's been 4 months already since early December, so not a few weeks. A few weeks is enough time to control a small spread, see Singapore or Taiwan for example for what great results can be achieved with diligent testing. You keep testing people aggressively and follow up on any positives. Contact tracing is enough to stop the spread if you do it early enough, and like I said, proof is in Singapore and Taiwan. The problem in the west is no testing so there's nobody to follow. RIP potentially millions for that failure.
When I wrote "big guys" I meant Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google, Amazon. And I meant even those aren't safe due to the reasons mentioned in the GP, despite large cash buffers and generally excellent credit.

Many (most?) companies will survive, the question is in what form.
> so that the hospital system is not overburdened

To go one step further, it's to reduce the mortality rate. Mortality when everyone has access to a respirator is one thing. Mortality when hospitals must deny care to thousands is another.

Distancing slows down the rate so we spend more time in the first scenario. (It's too late, now, to entirely avoid it.)
Schools happened to be on winter break so they just didn't reopen.
It's to slow the spread of the virus so that those with serious life-threatening symptoms can get hospital care.

Say you live in a town with 100 hospital beds, it's far better for everybody if they get 100 sick people a week for 10 weeks than 1,000 sick people this week.
The Fed should just hire all citizens in the country as employees. That would be a more efficient way to maximize employment.
What about warehouses or logistics centers, which are just as important as delivery vehicles.

> Mail, truck delivery, etc. can operate with relatively little person to person contact...
They’ve also had a dress rehearsal in the less deadly MERS outbreak. I’m sure preparedness and public acceptance of gravity of the situation had a great sway in outcome
The numbers I've seen so far are assuming 40% to 70% total infections over the next several months.

The current efforts are just trying to take some energy out of the first wave of hospitalizations, to buy time for more supplies and staffing and to get the current infected out of health care as new cases come in.

After a few weeks, it may turn out that hospital capacity and more widespread testing allows some restrictions to be lifted. Or, it may turn out that the situation in the US is far more severe than expected, and the restrictions will only worsen by then.

I'm hoping for the former but betting on the latter.
Just so I'm clear...this analysis assumes the same amount of assisted breathing devices per capital as the Italian health Care system?
You're assuming there are no rackets, either explicit ones or implicit ones.

Women's wages, for example, are very easily suppressed by a cultural racket that tells us the kinds of jobs they do (teacher, nurse, etc) are not very valuable.

Whether that's true doesn't really matter because as long as people believe it, there is money to be made acting as if it's true.

There's no real money to be made in breaking the racket, because by breaking it you'd just be paying more for the same thing your competitors are paying less for.

The moneymaking scenario is if you can make more money with fewer people by paying top dollar for the best people in an otherwise underpaid class.

But that will typically just result in a bifurcation of the market, with some higher paid positions, and many lower paid positions, not a global rise in salaries. Then the best gamespeople will be drawn to those higher paying gigs, and they will push out the most talented professionals from those positions, erasing the desired productivity gain, and eventually causing the salaries to revert back to the mean.

You really need a very strong leader to break the racket, someone who can create an organization that really cultivates good people maintaining control of their work. And a very good business model that would allow you to grow fast to displace your competitors. That kind of company is extremely unusual. It's just not something the market automatically creates. There are much easier kinds of companies to create that still make money, so that's where the bulk of investment goes.

People underestimate the amount of available high quality business leadership. Without infinite available leadership, the market can only optimize the low hanging fruit. More tricky local maxima just won't optimize out.
How to work effectively in a remote environment
Haahhahaha. Are we supposed to take it at face value that that’s the cases in Germany?
Scandinavian countries have stopped testing all together and gone with the UK plan without saying it out right. Some of those countries can barely handle their crime wave and shootings/bombings they obviously lack the resolve and skills set to actually do something.
>Forecasting Germany as if it were Italy isn't entirely fair, given that Germany has only had 9 deaths with 5000 confirmed cases while Italy had close to 200 deaths by the time they managed to confirm 5000 cases.

I think it's fair, Italy's population just happens oldest in Europe and more likely to suffer fatalities.
This is the niche nextdoor.com tries to fill. It's pretty hyper-local, I see a lot of posts about crime and such on my and neighboring streets.
All car radios have Bluetooth addresses and even some watches and headphones. We've had a breakout in a village nearby, 1 hour drive from our town. There's little Bluetooth there. Most people still don't use broadband and rely on live TV for media and entertainment. But those places are usually the least aware of safety precautions.
As others have said, nothing magic other than focused attention.

South Korea and Singapore both were hit by the original SARS epidemic, and learned important lessons from it. They're applied those lessons now, for this SARS 2.

Other countries weren't as affected by SARS, and so didn't take as many lessons away from it. When this came, many were caught flat-footed. Some countries (like the United States) were even less-prepared than being flat-footed.
From my understanding, HN is for intellectually stimulating conversation. If it was 100% talk about database management and regex and software updates, that would not remain very engaging for long.
In July 1914 the stock market was shutdown till December that year. I worry something similar could happen and I would be unable to get the most out of my wallstreet vix casino bet. I didn't put all down on red but it is growing fast.

Furthermore would this help anyone if an extended break is forced? If I am unable to trade is there any solace that this is all going to work out for the greater good?

Not trying to spread fear, just regurgitating some forgotten history that might be important.

I'm sure most people would not appreciate being locked out of their funds. At least dividends should still flow..
If you have another look at the guidelines you'll see that any article that arouses the community's curiousity is fair game.
Didn’t work that way in the 1918 flu pandemic. No city kept the public health interventions going long enough to avoid a second peak in deaths after they stopped them.
This is just a general comment about all of these (really quite nice) data visualizations: they're based on confirmed cases.

Given the many issues with the limited availability of testing this of real concern as it makes it much harder to judge the accuracy of "X days behind", etc.
Plain monospaced text is pretty awful for reading mathematics - why not switch to something higher-bandwidth with rich text, pictures, and mathematics?
The difference between a slow and a fast outbrake is that the fast outbreak overwhelms the health system which has all sort of negative side effects, aside from more deads.

I know humans usually have a hard time grasping exponential growth, but you need to grasp it to understand what is going on. Exponential growth means that on one day you say: "This is fine" and only two days later you have to introduce the triage and send people home to die, because there is no capacity for them.

And even if you had enough beds — will you have enough healthy professionals to staff them? If they have kids will they be able to come? Who watches for them? Grandparents who have a ≥20% of dying once they got infected?

The idea of quarantine is a numbers game: slow down the spread enough so the health system (and amthe rest of civilisation) can cope better If you have no vaccine the only way to deal with this is reducing the chances for the virus to transmit. And you do that by not having people cough in each other faces, touch everything, breath everything in etc. or even more effective: don't have them interact at all. If we all would manage to perfectly isolate for two weeks the thing would be gone after that two weeks.

So until we will develope a cure at some point this is the only thing we can do.
There's no reason it can't work in say development environments - the simplest approach is to configure whitelisted directories which permit execution in most solutions. It's not perfect but it helps prevent execution of questionable downloads / attachments.

> Client machines WITH credentials has to be made untrusted.

Network segregation is better if you truly care about security and costs in productivity. I think you'll find higher end environments have a 'trusted box' and a 'development box' which physically sit side-by-side on different networks.
Animal farming and human health are intimately linked
> Specific goals for implementing NPIs early in a pandemic include slowing acceleration of the number of cases in a community, reducing the peak number of cases during the pandemic and related health care demands on hospitals and infrastructure, and decreasing overall cases and health effects

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/rr/rr6601a1.htm
People will want to use it? It will be fun?

Honestly, doesn't sound like email.
Mortality rate is very dependant on age and health. The initial infection in Italy was in an hospital and so the initial propagation was in older population and in the medical staff which have a lot of contact with old people and people with bad health.

On the other side, people in Germany who gets the virus were very often young people travelling to Italy and they contaminate their young and healthy German friends when they come back in Germany.

This is probably enough to explain the initial difference in mortality.
Flatten the curve _does_ mean that 60-70% of the population will get it.

But it also means that the peak will be lower do that hospitals are less overwhelmed. It also pushes more infections later in time, so that we have more time to develop and deploy a vaccine.
> A big part of that is trying to avoid the 'bust' part of a boom-bust cycle.

The thing is you can't avoid the bust part, you can only soften it in a way it is not harmful for (some) people.