skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
If you're a medical professional and you've seen numerous papers or reports coming in that ibuprofen is a factor in the severity of Covid-19, why do you need to use a throw away account? Why can't you say where this information has come from?

I've seen this topic shot down by doctors on Twitter - a throw away account quoting "primary sources" is unlikely to convince many of us! Can you expand with something a bit more concrete? For example, where are these guidelines that are saying not to us ibuprofen?
It's the nature of all these figures that you can calculate them relatively easily for known cases but are somewhat more illusive for all infections.

That said I think you can put an upper bound on the number of undiagnosed cases out there by looking at deaths and hospitalizations (in places where that data is reasonably accurate).

There's at least a few ways of getting ballpark figures:

- https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_crui... (EDIT: this gives some estimates by age correcting the data from the diamond princess cruise which I think is one of the best data sets we have since most passengers got quarantined/tested/monitored).

- looking at data from countries with reasonably strong testing regimes and responses. E.g. Israel or Canada are two I'm following. In Canada 12% of the cases so far required hospitalization (EDIT: https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-sees-spike-of... )

- Surveillance test data for countries that do that.

20% does sound on the high side from what I've seen read. My mental ballpark is 5%-10%. I'm sure there are local variations (smokers, air pollution, age distribution, general health...)

EDIT: The US has 62 reported deaths. Just estimating based on 0.5% ifr that gives 12,400 cases. Then you have to back-adjust this. Let's say by 2 weeks? That's maybe on the order of 100k+. Obviously this will have a very large error bar but it gives us some intuition. Feel free to poke holes at my math ;)
I would say that perhaps writing the paper itself was the spark that he needed to begin bombing people. From the fourth paragraph in the paper: "We therefore advocate a revolution against the industrial system. This revolution may or may not make use of violence;"
The ventilator most likely is not approved for political/cronyism reasons, rather than safe functionality
Yes, and this is a big problem. People are unaware how other lang’s environments work. This exact issue I have with AutoHotKey app. Instead of taking something popular, it reinvented its own cryptic language and its author seems to be attached to it to not even think to support other runtimes. Many things I’d like to do in AHK, but this wall is hard. Even if you learn a language, without practice it fades rapidly, and next time you return there it’s still the same cryptic copy-paste cookbook.
no, sorry, I was going to add more text and put the bullets into a footnote, but went back to coding.

If you would like more information on something similar, consider:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/may/27/aids.features

The flip side of this is that I used to work in structural biology, and there were tons of structural biology grants flying around justifying studying these antibodies on the grounds that they might lead directly to vaccination strategies. Well, that is highly unlikely because some of these antibodies have a germline (versus adaptive immunity internal random generator) mutation that fundamentally changes the higher-order architecture of their antibodies that makes them not comparable to the antibodies that the rest of us have. The blatant (deliberate or brainless, I wasn't sure) mischaracterization by the PIs and the brazen funding of these proposals (deliberate or brainless, I wasn't sure) by the grant program managers that contributed me to leaving academia. I just wish they were honest and said "we are studying this because it's interesting and we would like to know more about the universe".
Taking too much acetaminophen (Paracetomol) is the most common cause of acute liver failure in the United States.

There has been a huge PR push (in advertising etc) against Aspirin and for other NSAIDs.

Of course, take care, but don’t be sucked in by marketing.
How many vaccines will be produced before September 15? Who will get the shots?
People talks about open sourcing and moral, but here we have phisical constraints, hard decisions will have to be done. In Italy they already do not intubate people older than 80, for example... Is not that doctors are evil, is that phisical world is limited.
With increased size, government becomes less efficient (as you need to have more layers of management) - so any policies that require implementation by the administrative bodies should work better in Iceland than in countries with one/two/three/four orders of magnitude more people.
They've also funded startups in bids to try and make universal healthcare happen:

https://blog.ycombinator.com/yc-research-universal-healthcar...

Also, you shouldn't refer to universal healthcare/single-payer as a concept with "Medicare for All." Medicare for All is a compromised American policy proposal inferior to what most countries have had for years.
I now live in northern (mainland) Europe (just left England) in temperatures of as low as -25 C in the winter. I have a jacket that can make you sweat in -10, and I now go running at 0 C with shorts&tshirt (temperatures 5 C and above make me sweat after the first 5 minutes). My latest long distance run was in Italy and I ended up walking half the race because of the heat (+10).
>People adopted Cargo because it is nice to use.

I don't think it's that simple and I want people to really dissect what the "nice to use" means. I contend that a fully funded backend ("crates.io" on Heroku+S3) is essential to make cargo a viable tool. A programming language ecosystem needs a Schelling Point (or a disproportionately influential C++ vendor dictating industry-wide tool usage) and the C++ ecosystem doesn't have that.

We can't replay history with an alternate events since cargo and crates.io came together but let's try a thought experiment and think of cargo in isolation:

Let's say we believe cargo's nice usage syntax (and not crates.io) is the what really drives adoption. Ok, let's hypothetically clone the github/cargo project and modify it to C++ (e.g. process ".cxx", "cpp" files instead of ".rs" files. I don't think the existence of a "nice tool" on the client side will matter for C++ programmers. There are still no sponsors paying for a C++ repository with disk+bandwidth that everyone will upload their code to. Swift.org has Apple as its sponsor. Who's the logical entity to fund an industry-wide C++ repo?

[0] https://github.com/rust-lang/cargo
I've read that dead / recovered overestimates since cases that end in death tend to close more quickly than cases that end with a recovery. Neither are great though and dead / cases underestimates since some of those cases might end in death as you say.

Bottom line is it's hard to get good estimates and we should let epidemiologists do their job.
As I get older (late 40’s) I find myself much more prone to speaking to people about incivilities such as this or littering, etc. Maybe I’m just starting to be a grumpy old man (get off my lawn), but I try to be polite and appeal to the greater good, not confrontational or preachy.

Also, one of the most rewarding things you can do is volunteer to plant trees in your city. At least in the US, cities often partner with local organizations for the manpower to plant and care for new trees. When I lived in San Jose, CA, my wife and I planted 3 trees one weekend along with a group who planted over 20 on 2 streets. The city provided the trees and fertilizer, the group provided the tools, and the volunteers did the digging and planting. We lived several blocks away and would go water the trees every week during the first few months to get them rooted. Almost 20 years later, we still go out of our way to visit “our” trees whenever we’re in the area.
To be clear, this is not Forbes. This is forbes.com/sites/ which is an unedited blogging network. So long as a blog brings in clicks and doesn't cause problems for Forbes then they don't much care what is posted.
Coronavirus has death rate of 1-2%. It might be slightly higher if the health care system gets overwhelmed, but the US has a head start on Italy/China in terms of social distancing measures.
I hope for the best.
Two Women Fell Sick From the Coronavirus. One Survived.[1]
Sui-Lee Wee and Vivian Wang, nytimes.com March 13, 2020

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/co...
Musk usually says whatever is most beneficial to him and his companies.
Which rating is better, mathematically speaking?
The 80% figure comes from a study of 72k cases in Hubei. It may have the problem you suggest, but China was/is testing much more aggressively than the United States.

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...
I've only kicked the tyres of both, but Xmake seems to be more opinionated than Premake. It gives you quite a lot out of the box that you have to build yourself in Premake. Eg (basic) dependency management.

Tbh, I was impressed by Xmake. All I need is a meaningful project to use it on.
Is this Stefon's blog?
Oh, and I'm not counting the deaths caused by the army shooting at people panicking or killing each other not to get infected. Human nature is like that.
I think the questions "what does minecraft add to the equation beyond hype" is legitimate, and deserves better than to be dismissed as ridiculous.

The only benefit I can think of is that if Russia has a system that automatically blocks websites based on content, it wouldn't work with minecraft.
Some people are. And I will one day, so not sure why you think it doesn't matter. Will it return? Sure. But that still leaves 1-2 years with no growth.
i just posted https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22585852 with app idea we hackers could get live asap
Title is misleading. He actually asked people not to go but they went anyway.
And if it can be reduced by 60%, we will see exponential decay instead of exponential growth. (assuming R=2.4 is the average number of people each victim infects, which is a number I've seen used a lot).

It seems plausible that social distancing can reduce human contact for the average person by 50%, and for people with some flu symptoms by 80%. All this is to agree, the growth rate is by far the biggest factor in getting an estimate of peak impact.
a bit off topic, but if you enjoy questioning the value of technology and the impact on our society, check out Neil Postman's "The Surrender of Culture to Technology"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlrv7DIHllE
The biggest hole is that the doubling time is usually closer to 7 days (10% growth in cases per day) than to 3 days (41% growth in cases per day). We do see 41% daily growth in reported cases in times where the testing is catching up to a much larger population of undetected cases, but overall 7 days is a more reasonable doubling time. On that assumption, 2040 × 2⁴·⁴ = 43068 actual cases in the Bay Area in a month.

When you're modeling exponential growth, most of your possible errors are just an additive time shift, a small one if the growth is rapid. For example, if the actual current cases are 4080, a 100% error in the estimate above of 2040, that just moves the time to reach those 43068 cases from 31 days away to 24 days away. But an error in the exponential growth rate is a multiplicative time distortion, leading to an exponentially large error at any given point in the future.
It's Battle of the Manifestos day on HN! Compare and contrast this with "Lisp: Good News, Bad News, How to Win Big (1991)":

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22585733
Back of the envelope math...
30,000 cases a few weeks ago in China... use the articles math... (calculating) ... everyone from here to Alpha Centauri is infected and in ICU today.

That may be correct... this could all be a fever-induced hallucination.
It's more likely, though, that the articles assumptions are idiotic.
For a symbolic price, nowhere the same as something like VMS or OS/360 would cost.

Hence why AT&T went after BSD afterwards, when the the context changed and they were allowed to sell UNIX at market prices.
Thanks SamA!
It can, but via custom scripts.
My team used to have an absolutely wild script for oncall scheduling. People would enter their availability weeks, and then we'd run a genetic algorithm, scoring the fitness of each schedule "offspring" according to the number of availabilities violated and then making random mutations to the most promising. It would slam CPU for several hours and still produce clearly ridiculous solutions. Brute force would have been better.

I'll have to play with this.
Reportedly happening in Israel, though they don't call out the method of cellular tracking they use: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/coronavirus-cases-in-isr...

... The government approved the tracking of cellphones by the Shin Bet security service in order to inform people who were unwittingly close to someone diagnosed with the virus during the two weeks prior to the diagnosis. ...
I'd like the power grid staffers to keep doing their jobs thanks very much
The reason it's headline news at the moment is because some minister tweeted about the lancet letter this thread is talking about. It's a letter that's not gone through peer review which definitely shouldn't be taken as an official source! Numerous doctors on Twitter have come out and said we shouldn't listen to it too.

Examples:
https://twitter.com/notdred/status/1238806682458882049
https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/12389469379166822...
Need some help. A friend of mine who is blind studies society and technology. He has wanted to read this for some time, but we've not been able to find an audiobook version. Does anyone know if there is an audio reading of this?
Not really. It's kind of like going to Project Gutenberg and zipping together the first chapter of every work. And then advertising it as "This is a sampling of literature!"

I mean it is, but most people wouldn't read literature that way.
It's Battle of the Manifestos day on HN! Compare and contrast this with "Ted Kaczynski's Manifesto [pdf]":

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22585258
> I've booted live USB on thinkpad x240

I think I found what was causing your performance problems. I'm running KDE Plasma 5.16.5 / Ubuntu 19.10 on an old 3rd gen core-i5 (i5-2520M) and it's crazy fast. It's performance has been on par with light DE's I've tested like Budgie, beats Gnome3 and just crushes Windows on this laptop. I even turned compositing on just for the extra effects (I like my wobbly windows) and it still outperforms Gnome 3 and Windows.
I thought zero trust is the only reasonable approach.
There isn't any way to merge Minecraft maps, I don't believe, so if you want to get the other books without copying them over by hand, you'll have to overwrite the books that someone wrote on your copy.
No. I had more in 2017 because my money was just sitting in cash.
Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/26/business/media/nick-daloi...
I'm sorry for the unnecessary attack.

I don't see how "predict" can be seen to lead one to saying it "caused" something. I think context also matters, a journal title has exact meanings for words in mind unlike most of the media.
I've the same single pair of 20€ shoes since 5 years. Some holes, but they still work well, probably for another 5 years.
The only drawback is when it rains, I need to dry them with newspaper.
I do a lot of sports (mostly bike (I've no car) for all my commuting, hiking/trail, ..
There's gotta be some quality pdf reader online. A quick search yields an Adobe product

https://www.adobe.com/accessibility/products/reader.html
Mr. Tavi Washes His Hands of the Situation (Or My Corona)
This is a thing that people say because it's ideally true and an article of faith among cool-kid practitioners†, but it is absolutely not the reality in major enterprises, and wanting it to be the case doesn't make it so.

† I agree with the cool kids that it's a good thing!
Seriously, please read about how creepy Ford was, this article does not do it justice. [1]

There are other tech titans with strong ideological views about how you should live. [2]

Fun fact: Ford hired "private detectives" who used machine guns to murder striking workers. [3]

Know your history. There is nothing new under the sun.

[1] https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2...

[2] https://youtu.be/xM9GMGDsKUU?t=859

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Hunger_March
Oh, that made me nostalgic of that portupgrade-oniguruma-ruby 20+ minute dep build phase.
I got 1x Nike for lounging/running that I just bought (the previous one was 'retired'), and 1x Salomon for hiking/snow/outdoors activities (bought in 2009). I spend one month per year in the very northern parts of Scandinavian countries usually Dec-Jan.

My "office gear" includes two pairs of "office shoes" that I absolutely never wear when not in the clients' offices/meetings/interviews. I hate those clothes :)
An odd choice, I agree. They should've archived https://putinism.wordpress.com/ instead.
My relatives will never open a "left" website. Is there a version of this letter with the graphs on another website?
Most active programming languages in GitHub
Same. He made some interesting points philosophically re: our growing dependence on technology and its implications.
Sam's ending line "And of course, I think the best thing to do is still to get people to stay home." makes me think we need this app asap: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22585852
In Wuhan they got R0 down to about 0.3 with lockdown, contact tracing, and central quarantine. Serial interval is about a week. I estimate we have about 40,000 infections in the U.S. right now. If you want 10 cases, you need a 4000x reduction we'd need about six weeks.

The sooner and more aggressively we start, the shorter the lockdown has to be. Half measures that leave R0 above 1 don't help much and just prolong the lockdown.

Take my liberty now so that I can have it later.
I had recently seen a claim that among the first 5 US cases, some had been apparent community spread, but searching back now I can’t find any substantiation for that claim. So yeah, looks like my assumptions here were wrong. Sorry.

Using the same math from feb 26 instead, which is the date I saw a CDC article published about first suspected community transmission, the figures are instead 15 * 10 * 2^(18/3) = 9600, which is more plausible. In any case, the calculations are extremely sensitive to the growth rate which, as you say, is also a thing we can control by modulating behavior. The extent to which we will actually do so is debatable, of course. As far as I’m aware I’m still expected to show up on site for work tomorrow.
Data Types in DS
hmm i am not sure that is the case, (though i only watched the netflix series, and read the manifesto, so i am not very familiar with his life), but i thought it is more a gesture of helplessness.

There is a saying in my country, that is hard to translate in English, but it goes something like: powerlessness births violence.
I find this library rather hard to navigate. The in-game space the minecraft library building occupies is enormous, larger than some real life cities I think. The mods are teleporting people around the map on request, but I think there are ways to automate that.
The WHO situation report for 06/Mar says:

> For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation.

Ventilation would have to be done in the ICU, in my understanding.

Source: 06/Mar/2020 Situation Report from https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...
Carhartts, Blåkläder - probably other brands that still actually sell work clothes - tend to have separate "fashion" models that sell through typical fashion stores. They're generally higher price and less durable in my experience.

In the US it's not hard to find regular carhartts work wear - in Norway I've only seen the fashion stuff. On the other hand, Blåkläder operate a few outlets that are aimed at the business market - and there it's possible to buy their "actual" work clothes.

Ed: in addition to such work wear, military surplus & second hand is also a good bet.
It looks interesting but to my knowledge it still hasn't been publicly released. There still isn't a lean systems-programming Smalltalk around which is a shame.

Since I like Smalltalk and I also happen to do some of the things they created Bee Smalltalk for in the cybersecurity domain,
I have to admit there are far better languages suited for such problems today than Smalltalk.
The shipping industry offers a transportation service to its customers. In the bulk area, not leaving your customers to clean hundreds of containers is part of the service.
I understand that but the op is advocating that those things would do more than having an ample supply of PPE and an effective treatment and vaccine which is total nonsense.
The data from China almost perfectly follows a logistic curve. Unfortunately, extrapolating such a smooth function is pretty much impossible before it starts saturating anyway.
In the document he specifically says that he killed people to get attention for his manifesto.
This was so interesting. The way it handles copy & paste seems better than our current convention. Its use of typography was elegant. I suppose that is a benefit of using a text editor that can also format documents for publication. I don't understand why open source projects don't build on original great ideas like these and those found in Symbolics' Genera.
If the clothes work for you, then there is your answer. No need to change something that is not broken (for you).

I kept the following quote from the article: "but it is only you who inherently cares what you look like"

And I remembered the phrase: those who matter don't mind, and those who mind don't matter.
Yeah, so cool, it's like Ready Player 1 meets Greg Egan's Truth Mines [0]

[0] https://everything2.com/title/Truth+Mines
> Minecraft has books that you can type into and read later.

That's pretty amazing, its like a modern, digital version of The Library of Alexandria.
This is the right point of view. If you start building hospitals now, you might have a chance when the wave hits. By now, such a post will not get some downvotes as reality trickled in. Have a look at the state of capacity in Italy: it's closed to maxed out with lots of improvised wards.
Take a look at this dashboard, specifically the bottom right section. The last 3 days, it seems that the number of reported cases is going down quite steeply. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...

now, I know, today's number's aren't fully in yet, and there are day to day fluctuations. but, if you trust the numbers for the last 3 days, it looks like the number of cases is not increasing exponentially. I know the actual case number is much higher, but, what matters is the relative percent increase or decrease from day to day, and it does not seem to be increasing in the last 3 days. am i wrong?

Starting a few days ago, almost no one is going out, except to do their big shopping. so how can the virus still spread?
This is nice. The architecture is gorgeous.

Has anyone talked about adding the US authors who are being canceled? Like Charles Murray? Woody Allen? Harvey Weinstein (if he ever writes anything)? All headed for the memory hole.
There exist tools to merge Minecraft maps. There's some trickiness around making sure entities get merged properly, but it's a somewhat common need to take a section out of one world and plop it into another world.
I met some of a couple of times, rewriting production Perl and bash scripts into Groovy and Java, shortly after being assigned maintenance roles for them, because "it is better" (aka "I have no idea and only know Java").
The Idea of Europe (2016)