skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Id assume, that the differences between minor lockdown, major lockdown and total lockdown (quarantine) are the same as for minor/major/total in every other context too. Minor x = a small quantity of all possible x, major x = a large quantity of all possible x, total x = all of all possible x. X in the given context would then be something like "measures to achieve isolation (on different levels) to decrease infection rate".

Practical example: Minor lockdown could be shutting down public places and canceling events that attract large crowds (>1000 people). Major lockdown could be shutting down all public places and closing borders. Total lockdown would be complete isolation of all individual people, as far as possible, for example via curfews and special protocols like for example (as they did in China) mailmen dropping packages on the doorstep instead of handing them over to you, and similar protocol changes to avoid direct contact between people. — And these three steps are in fact exactly what has been done or is in the process of being implemented right now in many countries.
Just some extra numbers of the hack:
- Number of LinkedIn + Twitter contacts of the whole team together => around 17.000 contacts (mostly Linkedin)
- Number of those ones who matched a Product Hunt Account with the hack => around 2.400 Product Hunt accounts
- Number of those PH accounts with upvotes >= 1 (so the user is somehow active on the past and knows how PH works) => around 1.200 accounts

So we secured 1.200 "somehow active" existing Product Hunt account users in our close network (1st degree LinkedIn + Twitter followers) who we could reach and share or launch with.
I don't necessarily disagree, but it isn't a very helpful comment. Do you know of any typical mistakes that OP could take a look at?
I’m buying S&P index every day at this point, trying to drive my average down without trying to find the bottom.

...with that being said, I feel really worried about American economic stability long term now. Governors are closing restaurants and businesses leaving tons of folks out of work while providing minimal safety net coverage. Even liberal states like New York are ignoring the downstream economic effects these closures will cause. If most Americans truly cannot afford a $500 surprise bill, we’re in for a very, very rough ride.
Hey! That's my GitHub name! I'm down to work on this project for a bit to make it better if you'd like.
Wbat is a DOS widget? The earliest stuff is from Windows 3.1.
Oh definitely, I guess I assumed OP was not in an essential sector like that since they mentioned working from home.
Heh I published something very similar this morning. Looks like everyone has the same idea

https://reactfordataviz.com/articles/corona-simulation/
"Likely to cause an accident" is not your concern?
Just my 2 cents - Take your assets out of the market.

Until we (in the US) see a few senators, a justice or two and / or the VP/president/etc succumb to the disease we haven’t hit peak panic.

~50% of the workforce is about to be out of a job for a few weeks. A large portion of Restaurants are about to go bankrupt, daycares are about to go bankrupt. Houses are about to drop in price (no money, and elderly dying).

The reality is, this could be worse than the Great Depression. At least if we keep this up for any length of time. What we are doing right now is seizing the economy and if we close down everything, it’s going to be hard to start back up.

Governments are going to crumble because of this.

Long term (a year out) things should be improving. But IMO we have a long way to fall. I wouldn’t be surprised if banks start folding.
The market is likely to go much higher than friday in the coming decades.
So why did zbetcheckin demand that capslang come down? Why does abuse.ch get to dictate to other countries based on hearsay?
By percentage, this isn't just the worst drop since the 1987 crash--the 1987 drop is the only worse drop. This is worse than any day in the Great Depression.
It has been proposed [0]. The sheer fact of how unprecedented it would be makes it unlikely.

0: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-16/data-a...
This is basically the point made in https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-si... (accessible without payment and also works in private browsing).
I'm responding to the statement that GP made which was that to someone who never used GOOG-411, the cost-benefit ratio is further into the cost category [compared to someone who did use GOOG-411]. This would imply that there is some cost to someone who never used the service, hence my question.
> Mao Zedong killed 40 to 80 million people during his rule after WW2, but "only" in China.

40 to 80 million is absurdly large and just as fictitious as the numbers pushed in the "black book of communism".

This is a good article which dissects those numbers: https://monthlyreview.org/commentary/did-mao-really-kill-mil...
The more optimistic way of looking at this is: the 'flatten the curve' scenario has to get so close to R0 < 1, that we may as well put in a bit of extra effort to actually get R0 < 1, like China did. At which point the virus will start to isolate in pools and eventually be extinguished.

This is difficult, not impossible. We'll see what actually happens.
We'll have vaccine within the 3600 days -- I hope :)
Today it correlated with the better indexes. DOW (-12.93%):

[1] S&P 500 (-11.98%) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=^GSPC

[2] NASDAQ (-12.32%) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=^IXIC

[3] Russel 2000 (-14.27%) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ERUT?p=^RUT
and France
The problem is that the solution doesn't scale.

Some people stocking up on supplies, to the detriment of their neighbors, is also a "solution"... to those people. Not to their neighbors. A "solution" must scale, otherwise it's selfish. Even worse, if a lot of people think "cars are the answer!" they are compounding the problem.

Fighting coronavirus requires a societal response, one that works for most people and where people don't take individual actions that seemingly benefit them (and only them).
Perpetual Flying Machine
I'd say keep a close eye on the Coronavirus situation. If a vaccine is found and is effective, likely the market will calm down and hit the bottom. After that its about keeping the companies afloat until they can get their revenue back up again. Most likely the quantitative easing programs from the Fed will help in this regard.
Illegal transactions use Bitcoin because it's irrevocable, not because of deflation. You can see that people don't shop with stablecoins either.
> How do you both "don't give a fuck" while also "mak[ing] the effort to make them like me"?

I'd say by doing the latter before the former. Make an attempt at socializing/conversation first.

If you get the vibe that the person isn't interested, you can move on to someone else, without bitterness, anger or disappointment. Just because it didn't happen with that person, doesn't mean it won't happen with the next person too.
They can't. That's why I hate people using that chestnut in relation to Linux: It doesn't work for two reasons which stick out at me.

Reason one is because Linux is GPL'd, Microsoft can't extend Linux without giving its extensions back to the community.

Reason two is because Linux is already established in multiple realms, so Microsoft can't bully its way into dominance. Microsoft has a respectable presence in server rooms, but it isn't absolutely dominant by a long shot. Microsoft probably has something going on in the embedded/hobbyist SBC space, but there's no path for them to dominate there. And, FWIW, Linux owns the supercomputer world. I also can't see IBM falling over itself to put Windows on mainframes.
"My dearest IRS auditor, I write to you this day to warm your heart and remind you that you are always on my mind..."
If it can't handle the extremes, it's not durable. This is such a bullshit attitude. Financial systems need to work in the extremes. Period.
This is similar to 9/11 where politicians would act without thinking just to appear like they were doing something. Security theater was the norm for many years.
It's real tech - miniaturization with microfluidics allows shorter cycles -> faster results. But it's not clear whether any of these companies are yet making enough machines to help, or if it's just PR. Probably the latter.

https://www.chinadailyhk.com/article/121312
There is no conflict about not giving a fuck and being agreeable and likable, you see most people think of "not giving a fuck" as some sort of punk rock attitude, but really "not giving a fuck" is the same as not having attachment to external judgement, it can be fun, exciting, imaginative and engaged in-the-moment freedom. It's about turning off the inner self evaluating voice like you must do for certain activities (improv for example.)

Be "Agreeable", be a good person, be a good conversationalist (by learning about a wide range of things and speaking about them with curiosity and excitement instead of to show off what you know), smile and have fun, interesting, or silly things other people can join in on, be slightly curious about the person in front of you. Don't do this for them, or to make them like you, do this because you think being awesome and connected has inherent beauty and you want to be more beautiful.

Also don't give a fuck, you see, that gives you the chance to be silly and fun, if you aren't self conscious and a few other people join you, people will have fun in spite of themselves, it's like everyone of every body type wearing string bikinis in Brazil, normalize a fun free environment and people will eventually chill and realize they don't have to cover their "imperfections" and will get outside their own heads a little bit.
Sure, but the states still have the power to do way more than uncle sam without much oversight. They should exercise it at times like these. Moreover, as I stated, this is only at crisis levels in some parts of the country. Local action could have prevented a bigger outbreak overall. Some states are taking much more preemptive action and will be better off because of it, like Ohio.
Why does web performance matter?
Was gonna write about all the bad stuff that can happen, but don't want to give any ideas. Instead I give advice; embrace and empower, rather then extend and extinguish.
But if you sit on cash, you will miss the day where it has a huge gain due to some news like a vaccine announced.
> Our Advise: It is time to carefully pick up some stocks based on crushed valuations, but the market is not likely bottoming. It’s hard to say are we two weeks away or months away from market bottoming.

You'll know it's time to buy when the advice you get from permabulls like the mortgage industry is to sell.

What will happen in between? Failed rally after failed rally. Bear market rallies are extremely effective destroyers of capital. The suck the gullible in and spit out the bones.

By the time it's really time to "pick up some stocks based on crushed valuations," nobody will care about stocks. And nobody will care about or believe the rally.
I wouldn't say it's terrible but if you're looking for a quick way to assess the market there are better options such as the Wilshire 5000 index. That being said that's crashing too so it doesn't really matter. The market is crashing folks, thats the reality of the situation.
I used to set up and run a large plate of qPCR (we didn't use the RT step in our particular use case) in an hour or so. Mind you this was for something like 200 samples. It took 2-3h to run the actual machine. If I was setting up such an assay, I'd order a bunch of different primers (you need DNA to make DNA) and run a bunch of plates with as many samples as I could to see what primers worked best. You'd include a bunch of negative controls, ideally some controls from patients/cultures infected with similar but not identical virus (for example a different coronavirus). To develop an RT-qPCR assay would take a week or two (rough guess), I think it took about a week to develop the WHO assay.

From what I can tell (mostly anecdotal and other data from friends I trust) the CDC assay used bad primers, they were noisy, showing a bunch of false positives. They also used a potentially dodgy fluorescence readout. I used to use the same readout, but our scenario was full of internal controls and the input sample was far more consistent. For human sample data a different fluorescent method that is more reliable should have been used.

Important ways this can be screwed up: it's helpful to use the same machine, the same protocol every time. This is because qPCR is an exponential assay, which means small errors can have big repercussions.

TLDR: Scale of fuckup here is massive. This really isn't that hard, and we could just have used what the WHO/others were using. I have no idea why they decided to go their own way.

more info: https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-...
Did your parents or their company do illegal things on a large scale?
Imagine if you had to go to your VP or CEO to get approval to buy a new laptop. How long would you have to wait? How much of their time would be sucked up with organizationally-irrelevant bs?

The US military has the principle of solving things at the lowest level possible. Not only does it prevent extra time and hops but it means the people closest to the problem are the ones solving it.
That’s an odd assertion considering how much the airline industry is going to hurt for the next 6+ months. I’m sure both Boeing and Airbus will see a drop in orders as their customers teeter on the edge of bankruptcy.
A million dead, mostly elderly, is not completely out of the realm of possibility, especially if we hit the high end of 150 million infections in the US. Statistically, 150 million infections would kill closer to 4 million.
It just counts as necessary travel - no cop is going to give you a hard time about moving apartments
Mapping Friday’s 30% Drop in NYC Subway Ridership
If you're experiencing 6 sigma events daily, your modelling is wrong.
Whenever you introduce means testing, you can never claim that the people who truly need it will receive it, as you are explicitly offering avenues through which they could be excluded.
.. the grass is not always greener
You seem to have falsely generalised based on your experiences with whatever local airlines you use. Norwegian and other european carriers have quite a good reputation, people understand that the low cost has a price.
I sent a PR.
I'm a bit more optimistic about this crash - a significant portion is due to the (important) constraints on society - closing schools and restaurants. Meaning we can look forward to some pent up demand on the other side when those constraints are loosened.

On the other hand, if the US goes into lockdown for a month or more, there's a significant chance that we could be returning to a world very unlike today. The market does not like this kind of uncertainty, and an house of prevention would have been worth $10 trillion dollars of cure.
...stock market crashes don't destroy money (they just redistribute it).

Source needed.

Stock market crashes absolutely destroy money by any reasonable definition of the money supply.
Are you really sure this is a good time to get into the market? I mean, property is usually a good long-term bet and rates are low, but you'd have to be pretty liquid to want to move now. Then again, if you think inflation is going to come in a big way, todays prices are reasonable.
Can you elaborate more the "avoid anywhere with a 'digital nomad' community"? Isn't that supposed to be a positive network or alike people/entrepreneurs? How do you keep your networking/customers/support network in an isolated cheap area?
Same. I honestly don't mind if my orders are arriving a little later, I just hope they treat their warehouse workers better.
Vix is currently at 82%, rather than a more typical 15%. You should expect daily fluctuations of 5 to 6x what is ordinary for the next month. In fact today's drop is only about 1 standard deviation.
The equivalent of hall passes issued by employers with exemptions. Hopefully my employer is granted one so I don't get laid off.
That's a measure of what we should spend to save lives, such as by installing safety equipment. Those expenditures increase the size of the economy.

The amount by which we should shrink the economy to save lives might be quite a different number. I haven't seen a good analysis of that case.

In general, shrinking the economy costs lives elsewhere such as by malnutrition or lack of money to spend on safety equipment. So the number ought to be lower.
You are right about this. The number of trucks passing the Champlain Bridge every day is huge and many of those truckers are American.
It can't possible be worse than advice to buy at the start of this covid-19 disaster.

I feel for those stuck holding this particular bag of shit. Fortunately I pulled out after the last TSLA earnings call, and look forward to the future shopping spree once the dust settles.
"It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single man in possession of a good fortune must be in want of an audit."
They did a great job with ReactXP tying together react-dom (Web), react-native (Android, iOS, macOS), and their react-native-windows (Windows, Xbox, Mixed Reality).

Unfortunately, development on it has slowed and it's not the easiest experience for new developers.

Fortunately, it's super flexible and open-source so I've forked it to continue my vision of the perfect native cross-platform stack:

https://ult.dev/
Sure, I was referring to this study which shows that 20% of cases were either severe or critical: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

True, this is only in China. In most other countries, it's still too early to be able to collect great data because of how quickly the situation is evolving (the denominator is bound to be wrong due to delays between cases being detected and the amount of days it takes before cases evolve into severe/critical condition or death). But it's data, and you can't easily dismiss it.

> So they are inexperienced experts giving it their best guess based on what they know about disease transmission and math.

This isn't entirely true. The epidemics in China, South Korea have more or less been resolved, and many of the steps being taken in other countries are based on comparing the outcomes in those countries compared to ones that are failing to slow the spread of the disease with disastrous consequences (Italy).

> But they clearly did not factor in the effects of shutting down the global economy for 3-6 months in their quest to optimize for a single variable.

It's possible that the health experts are not taking the economical windfall into account, but the politicians enacting the laws probably are. These decisions are being made in rooms with people who, with their knowledge pooled together, most likely have more information about the disease and the economic impact of their decisions than you.

Secondly, the reasoning for national shutdowns earlier rather than later is to shorten their length. As of now, local government officials are hoping not advocating 3-6 month shut down, but rather trying to avoid one by shutting down now. I remember reading the figure of 2 weeks but I cannot find it quickly now. We will see.
Don't forget the opportunity cost of waiting 5 years for your investment to go back to net 0 :)
Dumb question. Why can't they just turn off all stock markets for a month?
The behavior you describe is allowed under the order.
Bitter about human lives being prioritized over your stocks?

Poor little psychos.
The only upgrade path is to rewrite large parts of your app.
The main benefit is that it has been around a long time, so it's somewhat useful for broader historic trends.
Absolutely. I'm 21 -- I have 30 to 40 years to weather this storm. For people of similar age, you could not ask for a shallower entry into the market, albeit a tumultuous one.
Reminders me than one of my favourite albums ever, Sheena Ringo's Kalk Samen Kuri no Hana was recorded entirely by her in her apartment with Mac and some cheap hardware.
I hope you're not saying that measures which actually achieve more social distancing is somehow theater.
Here is one, programmer centric, answer:
https://falconair.github.io/2015/01/05/financial-exchange.ht...
Note that yarn is also no longer under the control of Facebook and the primary maintainer who has been developing yarn 2 no longer works there.

https://yarnpkg.com/advanced/qa#is-yarn-operated-by-facebook
They've relaxed the no-liquids rule now!

for hand sanitizer only.
My fiancé is currently in Orlando and booked her flight back to Germany with Norwegian for March 24. Does that mean the flight is cancelled? She hasn't received any notification from them.
? it's not an abandonware if they're working on major upgrades?
The Case for Hierarchy
I think that going out for a run or bike ride BY YOURSELF and keeping away from anyone else doesn't seem unreasonable and I don't think is reckless. Going to the bar or a friends house for a get-together DOES seem unreasonable.

I just hope that whatever lockdown happens if it happens is sensible and reasonable as much as it can be.
Most of the people betting on this becoming a recession/depression think that the coronavirus is just the pin to pop the (ETF) bubble. Most of the companies that have announced that they're working on vaccines have pumped already, but feel free to invest.
I agree completely. My advice to anyone who isn’t employed as a stock trader is to buy when you have investable cash. In particular my comment was disagreeing with the advice to “wait a little while longer.”
I am not well versed in the economics of depressions, but almost all the ones I know of were preceded by some monetary imbalance or the explosion of a bubble based on falsely propped up ownings.

1929 was stock being leveraged off mortgaged homes and loans, that was clearly no sustainable.

2000 was the dot com burst.

2008 was mass defaults on home loans.

Is there any reason why apart from slow business for 2 months due to corona and the oil war (that resulted from corona causing a loss in demand), the economy can't juts go back to being business as usual once this all passes over ?

Is there a particular kind of asset, the collapse of which will seal this drop as a proper depression ?
And in Sweden here we are. Schools still open and people going about their life as normal. Boggles the mind
Do we know yet what the probability of packaging borne transmission is? Has anyone seen anything? I saw one study describing virus lifetime on various surfaces but I don't think they tested cardboard.

Also I don't know what they're expecting. They either have mountains of stock or they'll be laying these people back off soon when factories close. I think supplies out of China are still disrupted.
I literally thought that, clicked hide, then thought "Wait a minute, do they mean...?" and had to go fish it out of hidden items.

"Joining" is an interesting term here... but I suppose it won because it sounds more like something friendly humans would do. "NPM Is Breaking Bread and Sharing with Github as Special Friends."
Great article, thanks for sharing. I needed someone to calm my minds thoughts concerning this. These powers to limit organizing in groups seems extremely dangerous and my conspiratorial mind is running circles with this current situation, I needed a little bit for the other part of mind to chew on calm down the train.
If you think recession is guaranteed, why not sell?
There are probably 8 that can run on the latest version. And all of these became abandonware a few years after their introduction.
Seconded, but the USA also had the will to push their hand. They could have said goodbye and went back to the Americas, instead they did their best to control the world. Of course everybody in that position would have done the same but they had a competitor (the USSR) so it didn't come for free.
It's clearly better advice than dumping in more than you can afford? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯