skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Different countries are not so much a matter of "handling it well / poorly" (with a few exceptions), but "earlier / later in the game".

Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are the notable exceptions. They've controlled the epidemic well.

For other countries, the number of cases, or quite probably consistently, the number of deaths noted, is a more accurate measure of overall surveillance and spread.

At a ~1% mortality rate, each death corresponds to roughly 100 cases, two weeks ago. Growth over 14 days, based on confirmed cases has been increasing at about 100x, though that likely indicates increased monitoring and detection of previously cryptic (undetected) cases, not the actual ground-truth growth rate.

Adam Kucharski, author of The Rules of Contagion offers a similar logic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths...

His book (not yet available in the US):

https://www.worldcat.org/title/rules-of-contagion-why-things...

I'd though of noting the cumulative deaths per day after 100 cases are noted as more uniform and reliable metric of spread. Bodies are harder to hide than viruses, though countries with poorly-developed medical infrastructure will still lag.

I also suspect we now have a case of countries with known COVID-19 epidemics, and countries with unknown epidemics, rather than countries with no actual epidemic.

Update:

Graph showing cases by country, days after reaching 100 confirmed cases. Note that this only looks at 16 days' cumulative history, China's curve HAS now flattened out.

https://joindiaspora.com/posts/cda527b0448101384fd2005056264...
Source code, which is what we're discussing here in Oracle vs. Google, may be covered by both, despite some Supreme Court rulings that tried to limit what may be claimed to at least avoid simple recitations of a standard computer.

Of course, my view is that the real problem is that 101 can be met piecemeal. The novel part doesn't have to be patentable subject matter and the patentable subject matter doesn't have to be novel. So one would just recite claims of allegedly novel software running on an non-novel, but otherwise patentable computer. If novelty had to reside in the part of the claims that was patentable subject matter, I think a lot of the nonsense would have vanished, though I might well underestimate their cleverness in finding new and strange ways to disappoint us.
> Understood that schools are primary transmission vectors.

Are they? There seems to be limited transmission from children (to other children or even adults), in part because they generally aren't getting symptomatic when exposed.

via https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...:

. "For COVID-19 virus, initial data indicates that children are less affected than adults and that clinical attack rates in the 0-19 age group are low. Further preliminary data from household transmission studies in China suggest that children are infected from adults, rather than vice versa."

I don't deny kids can transmit it to other kids, just that the odds are low. In fact, the only school I could find that was a cluster (Suyeong-gu Kindergarten in Korea) was 5 infected adults, 1 infected kid, and 160 negatives (which I assume were dominated by children).

Does anyone know of school clusters that have emerged?
No offense, but please educate yourself. The point is to slow the spread of it so hospitals don't get completely overwhelmed and people who need care can get it, unlike what is happening right now in Italy.

Check out flattenthecurve.com.
Thanks to Coronavirus in NYC, I had more time to design my UX
Not to excuse anything, but the main difference is the time scale—within days/weeks we saw differences, and death counts... with climate change it's not only difficult to measure easy-to-understand direct correlation sometimes, it also is at minimum on time scales of months to years.

Most news cycles are hours or days, not months or years.
This also seems really useful for people trying to stop biting their nails and other habits. Any chance you'd share the code?
Javascript for a compiler course? That seems like a very unusual choice. Good luck to you!
Who is more likely to read and listen to a Newsweek article, an arbitrary individual reading the article making a decision for themselves, or a governmental policy maker when deciding what to tell the country?
There’s also Emoji modifiers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miscellaneous_Symbols_and_Pict...) and regional indicators https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Indicator_Symbol that complicate determining the number of Unicode characters.
Assuming grandparents live near their families, and are alive, and are capable of child care.
This is an analysis if you just shutdown schools, if you send all but critical for food/power/utilities workers home and pay them, then the assumptions are completely different.

I wonder what basically a 2-4 week vacation for an entire nation looks like.
For starters VAT and payroll taxes deadlines will be extended, more measures will come. People who have been forced to cancel major events, will be refunded.
It may be the best way to deal with this pandemic but it's questionable if western culture is compatible with these measures. People are way more openly critical in the democracies. Protests are often infectious.
Or maybe its about gradually easing a population in to isolation.
Plus, climate models and predictions just don’t resonate with people.
It’s probably not feasible to come up with anything but an arbitrary number. But 100 allows for important meetings and some ceremonies. More than that are usually public events.
- White boards and to-do lists, if possible.

- Freedom or similar Internet-off software, if you're the kind of person who is susceptible to such challenges. http://www.paulgraham.com/distraction.html
Yes, I caught that the other day. I couldn't even finish the article. I'm from gen-x and it even annoys me how hyper-critical the baby boomers are with millenials and gen-z. Attempting to lay blame on young people for the spread of corona-virus is just absurd and irresponsible.
I'm not them, but a price too high can be a way to make sure to get only a few client at first. They clearly like to test stuff, and it's much easier to do it with a few client, than thousands of them.

We also often forget the indirect cost of supporting a client, at my current job our software is great for small companies, but we found out that under 50 employees, it was just not worth it to support them.

You can also always lower a price, nobody will complains for a lower price ;), but making it higher without justification is much harder.

So all that to say, it can makes sense to start with a price way too high,
No such candidate could exist - Sanders' only baggage is being described as a socialist, they haven't dug up any moral failings or flip flopping or other BS rationales. Any candidate that embraces Medicare for All will instantly be branded a socialist by the MSM and be in exactly the same spot, but may lack the honesty and integrity that Sanders has cultivated.
Or the debt collectors haven't caught up yet. That happened to me around 2012 in the US. Went to the emergency room, had some tests done, got the hospital bill and paid a few hundred bucks. Then like 9 months later I get calls from a debt collector saying I owed $1,500 to a separate medical testing company that apparently provided the test I was given at the ER. I had never received that bill and it just took a while for them to send it to collection apparently.
Nobody should worry about Covid in the USA, 1) Trumps dead Uncle went to MIT and 2) we have his hunches to keep us safe.

Further, as long as we don't test in mass, our case numbers will remain very low.
Yeah, here in the UK she could've been told that she wasn't going to get tested for coronavirus over the phone for free. It's a much more civilized system. (Though to be fair, we did a little better at adding Italy to the list of qualifying countries promptly than the USA.)
But we aren't mobilizing to stop the pandemic (or at least, not enough), and the WHO even cited that as a reason for declaring COVID-19 as a pandemic today.

Many of these media outlets still publish their Coronavirus content behind paywalls, or plastered with advertisements everywhere. That isn't mobilizing, that's capitalizing.
Side note: if you suspect a COVID-19 infection, DO NOT GO TO THE ER. Contact a physician by phone, get instructions. By going to the ER you put a lot of people at risk.
Hopefully, the hospital won't put a lien on your home. Some states allow them to do that.
It's amazing we had so much lead time, but American exceptionalism and the belief that ugly things only happen in other parts of the world caused us to squander it all.

There's so much we could have done, but we aren't going to fully wake up until the critically ill are packed in hospital hallways.
Read my response to a sister comment.
While everything is shut down? Including the food distribution network? What good will money do in that scenario?

Shutting everything down isn't an option. The economy isn't some nice-to-have thing you can turn on and off on a whim. It's an essential part of providing the basic necessities that people need to live—which includes much more than just food.
Exempt as in their kids can go to daycare?
> I use it to follow people

This is something I have a real need for. Specifically, podcast hosts. I want to follow certain hosts and listen to every random show they're on.

Some hosts do keep lists of their appearances across many shows: http://hypercritical.co/about/appearances/

But that forces me to manually find the episodes and add each one to my podcast app.

I want something that aggregates appearances into a cross-podcast RSS feed that I can subscribe to in my app. Automatically subscribe to every one of their appearances.
They still get infected, so they can still pass it on to others.
https://www.pap.pl/en/news/news%2C602846%2Cpoland-shuts-down...
OK, good to know, though they are probably lagging a bit with information for the public.
Is that an objection against the story's point?

The fact that people might come up with silly/nonsensical/bad justifications for the fence doesn't seem undermine the importance of doing due diligence to determine if there is a good reason for the fence in the first place.
What makes you think that? Seriously asking, because I don't see that risk right now. Also, if it does blow up like Italy we will just have to take it up from there, no point in arguing about the past.
There's a reason behind it. It depends on how what percentage of people of the population are infected. As long as the number is quite low (say 0.005%) having a meeting of 20 people will not be a great risk.
I know you're mad, I am too, but that kind of gloating will just push people away and worsen the political divisions that are tearing the country apart.
Italy mandates closing all shops but groceries
San Francisco is banning all gatherings of more than 1000 people.
Italy to close all stores apart from food shops and pharmacies
Arbitrary number, but yes. Network effects. The more people, the more likely one has the virus, and the more people likely to be affected by it, and thus carry it to still more places.
Based on the OP and two other articles (see below), I believe your presumption is mistaken. It's hard to say for sure, because the list of studies included in the meta-analysis hasn't been published yet (that I can find). (Edit: it looks like the study is available at https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD...) But the articles make it clear that this was a rigorous meta-analysis done by qualified researchers. Surely they didn't just toss in AA publications uncritically. What they're saying is that, after careful review, the studies that have been popularized in the past as showing that AA was less effective are the ones that turn out to be wrong. From the NYT link:

The 2006 Cochrane Collaboration review was based on just eight studies, and ended with a call for more research to assess the program’s efficacy. In the intervening years, researchers answered the call. The newer review also applied standards that weeded out some weaker studies that drove earlier findings.

In the last decade or so, researchers have published a number of very high-quality randomized trials and quasi-experiments. Of the 27 studies in the new review, 21 have randomized designs. Together, these flip the conclusion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/upshot/alcoholics-anonymo...

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/11/alcohol...
Nobody is dying from global warming. It's a sea level rise of 2-3mm a year. Less than 11,000 people a year die from natural disasters, which is near all-time lows despite a rising population. 100 years ago, it was common for at least 1,000,000 people a year to die from natural disasters. Thanks to technology, including internal combustion vehicles and electricity, that number has dropped dramatically. Crop yields are up almost 100% since the 80s for many crops, including staples like corn, wheat, and soybeans. We're able to feed more people than ever before. Also, winters are far more deadly than summers.

Source for the data: https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters Zoom out back to 1900 and see how much the world has improved.
Jesus, what are you looking at that makes you so sure of this viewpoint?

I think it's fairly uncontroversial to say that we absolutely do need a quarantine that keeps almost everyone in their homes, except for those providing critical services (medical staff, police, national guard, plus some needed amount of infrastructure for groceries, pharmacies, electricity, water, etc.). For the next 2 or 3 months, I fully expect to only leave home maybe every few days or week to go to the grocery store or pharmacy, like you see today in most of South Korea. It's just a question of when at this point, and the sooner we start it, the less disruptive it'll be in the long term and the fewer people will die.
Until there's a vaccine this is all "flattening the curve" trying to limit the overall number of severely sick individuals to a level that they can get hospital care.
I would agree with you, if only I would have not heard this exact "actually it's not so bad, mortality is super low unless you are old or sick already" in the real life way too many times.
The Early History of F#, final draft [pdf]
More like Power Query.
> (2) (this is the crazy part) does it actually make sense to get it now before hospitals are overwhelmed and you might be unlucky enough to be sick with something else.

I don't think that's crazy, it would be quite helpful to be able to plan to catch it, and you can quarantine yourself at home so you don't spread it to anyone. The big trick is to be able to avoid spreading it around during the symptomless incubation period. Catching the virus on purpose could help you do that.

> (1) is it fair to say that focusing on prevention is pointless and we should just focus on survival

I don't think so. The point is to lower the exponent. Buying time has a lot of value.
I think people know and just believe there will either be a magical human engineered solution that solves the problem or lots of time to find a greater fool before it gets that bad.
The parent thats not working at a hospital
The collective wisdom of some online societies is saying that Covid is being played up in a conspiracy to lose Trump an election. We should be skeptical or online wisdom
This is real easy to say to people who largely don't get sick days, oftentimes don't have PTO, and are far more likely to be unable to absorb a week without pay. If I take off work because I'm sick, I simply lose that money. Young people continue life like nothing is wrong because doing otherwise is not an option.
recovering addict here. some words for those who may be struggling.

i tried a number of things over many years (life coach, therapy, meditation retreats, ayahuasca, ibogaine, etc).

i reached a bottom, and nothing i had tried really worked or stuck. kept relapsing after a few months of sobriety at most.

ultimately it was going to AA that i largely credit to my successful transformation into a happy life of sobriety.

if you're not sure if it's right for you and struggling with addiction, i highly recommend having an open mind, and trying 90 meetings and 90 days. see how you feel after. it's the daily practice that is transformative.

there is something powerful about being focused on a purpose with a group of similarly motivated people.

the people in the rooms of AA understand the challenge you're facing in a way that friends and family often don't.

you quickly realize that the 'higher power' thing is a pretty easy to move beyond, regardless of your religious orientation. a 'higher power' can even be a conceptual device - e.g. the wisdom of the people in your meeting who have achieved a life of sobriety.

it's also not to say that AA in itself is a savior. it's a healthy component to integrate as part of a balanced recovery of body, mind, and spirit.

eating well, exercising often, and finding ways to be helpful are other important pillars to incorporate along your journey.

good luck, be well.
Music can be good for mode switching. I prefer electronic music with no vocals.

Also, get dressed.
Isn't it both? Kids get it less often then adults, if they do they have a lower mortality rate (0% in fact for kids < 12), and don't seem to transmit it significantly to adults. (it's adults infecting them)

source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
It was absolutely magical even at the start

I was a very inexperienced developer with tutorial-level experience of Rails, and I learned javascript from Algolia client tutorial. I have a 50-emails support thread with their CEO and CTO when they were doing YC.

This level of patience and care at onboarding a new dev was incredible and I always rooted for them. I came to know them better a few years later (small world) and they are absolutely adorable, very down to earth and modest despite their tremendous growth

But one thing has not changed : when you implement Algolia in a project, it feels like magic. The speed + convenience combo is unbeatable
How to Convert Your Blog Readers into Customers
Part of the problem here is that extremists have subjected us to at least three decades of climate alarmism poisoned by bad science and failed predictions. People who lack the scientific background to properly understand specific claims and the basis for them rely on ignorant heuristics, such as "the boy who cried wolf". They wrongly conclude that the current round of climate concern is no different than the rounds they've previously experienced.
Madrid has also shut all schools and universities as of today, for 2 weeks.
Yeah, this what Rahm Emanuel was getting at with his infamous line “you never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” A crisis can break through the logjam of everyday interests that normally prevent action. It wakes people up and changes the way they look at things.

(Not always in a good way, of course. But still.)
Young people read newsweek? LOL that's rich
There might be some cases where watching the kids for them is difficult, but most likely the local hospitals already have an idea for this for the minority of employees whose single parent or both parents work in healthcare. Usually their partner can help out.
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- 3 to 5+ years of experience in building, shipping, and maintaining production code

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Yeah, it’s a numbers game. If you don’t know who has it, less people is less chance. Also contact tracing is easier when you’ve only met x amount of people.
Well, yes, but that's with the extreme measures taken by China. And the spread in Italy doesn't seem close to stopping yet.

Edit: also pneumonia is caused by a large number of causes. If covid-19 killed as much as all respiratory diseases it would already be scary.
It's pretty crazy how this works. Despite having pretty good coverage, I often use GoodRx because the prices are so much cheaper than using my insurance...
Newsweek is garbage, and has been at least since they "outed" "Satoshi Nakamoto".
The app fails to even ask for camera permission in Firefox, and simply dies.
So like... IRC?
A lot of businesses work like that. There is a retail price and then a discount is applied depending on who you are. That's kind of how all retail works, really.

Even working with Amazon or Walmart is kind of like that. You invoice them for one amount, but you get paid much less based on different deductions for things like discounts, co-ops, damage allowance, etc.
Had Enough? Californians Turn Down Higher Taxes, Debt
Nothing about hospital billing would fly anywhere else. Bills just showing up after the fact with little ability to verify their accuracy, constant errors one can catch anyway (so how many are missed?), bills showing up months later from a half-dozen different sources when you only had one apparent "vendor", and so on.

I bet we received between 100 and 200 pieces of mail for each of our kids' births, including maternal care before the births. Probably averaged 40-60 hours dealing with billing and billing problems with each one, maybe more. And ours were all totally normal and about as easy as it gets, and we had insurance. I think we ended up missing some tiny bill we could easily have paid in each one (oh, yeah, they also like to give you very little time to pay) and had them go to collections.
> US government have lost their credibility

If they had credibility for being able to move quickly for something this widespread, or anything at all really, I think it was fiction in someones mind.
This Reddit thread over at /r/europe has pretty compelling visualizations:

https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/fguile/germany_vs_i...

Germany lags 8 days behind Italy, Spain 7 days.
If you know any parents that need help, some resources here:
https://www.modulo.app/covid19
> and be done with the pandemics in 3-4 weeks

Unlikely... even if they could wave a magic wand and wipe out the disease in Denmark entirely they are just going to be re-infected via people from other countries.
A shill accusation never goes over well. The commenter just pointed out that this is an emergent property of the incentives with the insurance system and pricing laws. Nobody is doing it intentionally to “hurt the poor”.
Wow, this brings home what a huge crisis this is for US health care system. It's not just the huge costs or huge administrative overhead as such. It's that the entire system is built as "we design a giant filter-rationing-marketizing system to dole out services and you pay for both the service and the rationing process". This stuff can't work for the Coronavirus at all. Testing needs to free and fast, not even "free eventually but there's bureaucracy first". Who knows when or if this paradigm will be abandoned but if it isn't, suffering will be tremendous.

But either way, the risks discrediting the filter-ration paradigm. If X can be provided for free to everyone, the question of why can't you will loom that much larger.