skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
It's a very shallow article, as one would expect. Most committed liberals (in the classical sense of the word, NB that in the US both parties are liberal by this definition) can't conceive that there are any problems created by liberalism that might be addressed via illiberal systems, and therefore give both left wing and right wing critics very little hearing.

Despite not being a libertarian or (non-ironic) monarchist at the time, I found this to be an interesting and thought provoking book:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy:_The_God_That_Failed

It argues for monarchism as a better alternative than democracy for libertarians. The premise, on it's own, is interesting enough and the author makes quite a case for it.
They can intend what they please, but the facts show that you can't save the elderly without quarantining and social distancing of the non-elderly. "Stiff upper lip" is such a caricature of Britishness that I wonder if Johnson is doing it as a piece of patriotic method-acting. It is not a medically sensible method to fight COVID-19.
Thanks so much - glad to hear the Jim part, especially since it drove me nuts when I started generating text.

I wrote a paragraph for the FAQ on the over-fitting on Jim's dad monologues - not sure if it's true, but I think it's fun to ponder:

> For some reason the model picked on the monologues of Jim's (James Incandenza’s) dad. I found it funny that many sentences in some of the rambling monologues that the model is spewing end with ", Jim.". It's been a while since I last read the book, but I don't think these parts comprised more than, say, 5% of the book. It's interesting that the model fixated on them so much. My pet theory is that the model sees a rambling semi-coherent monologue it's producing, and then looks back at it and thinks "Oh, I must be inside one of these dumb Jim's dad monologues"
We don’t know much about this virus still.

Time is vital.
Are data more like oil or sunlight?
FWIW, the substance of this article has been confirmed, on the record, by the German Health Ministry.[1]

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-german...
> cause more severe illness

on the contrary, more sever illness makes it less likely to spread, no?

You are always spreading germs around, if you have high fever or start coughing blood you'll get isolated but if you just have a runny nose you will keep living normally and the virus will happily keep infecting other people when you shake hands.
How to use .mailmap file in Git repository
> Containment is very unlikely to work

Except in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, or (more arguably) Japan. And South Korea, while they had a rougher early outbreak, seems to have gotten a lid on the disease now.

That's not really correct. Containment certainly can work. Whether it will or not is still an open question. Right now no western country has been able to match that. Italy, Spain, France and Germany are probably out of time to try. But the UK is still relatively early on its curve.

So, for that matter, might the UK "infect the herd" trick. The science isn't unsound, though it's not nearly certain. So the risk management is just crazy and I can't understand it either. But... it really might work.
Your behavior today has serious and direct impact on not only your chances in three weeks but on the lives of other people around you. A cluster of sick people in South Korea is traced to one person who attended church two weeks ago. So, no, this isn't about collective probabilities - this is about what you personally do.

In any case, Elon Musk doesn't speak for individual behavior, he controls a company of thousands of employees. That's already collective behavior.
This sounds like the attempts of interpreting religious text to accommodate and to fit the world you think we live in.

I’m not comfortable with this way of thinking, in muslim countries after every big scientific discovery people advocate that “it’s already written in the koran” since Allah must have known it and if you twist the text enough and ignore contradicting interpretations it can be understood this way.

I don’t like that and don’t believe that this is the case.
Yes of course. The government should take steps to stabilize the whole country and reduce the damage caused by mass disaster events. That’s what governments are for.
>While I’m a doctor, I’m No specialist so my opinion is of limited value, and experts seem to disagree with each other.

Given the state of modern politics, this is a time for people to very carefully consider their opinions, because the unpopularity of Trump and Boris is going to potentially sway decisions irrationally. This includes professionals and key decision makers.

This is not a value judgement regarding any world leaders. It's just a call to be very aware of bias and spitefulness can cloud judgement even in the most rational among us.
does she talk at all about how to patch/mend jeans? because that's a skill that'd be super-useful to learn, given how fast jeans wear out (between the thinness and the added stretchy but less durable fibers nowadays).
The password appears to be 4865083501

https://www.reddit.com/r/Android/comments/fj2ixw/comment/fkk...
Now, with this many asterisks, is it really a good and valid comparison?
It tells you if you need 10x as many people under hospital care at the peak or not.
> 1. You can't shut down the economy indefinitely. At least not if your goal is to minimize fatalities.

It's not a binary choice between life as normal and total shutdown. The whole discussion is about reducing non-essentials to slow down the spread, so the health system can cope with the demand spread over time.

> 2. You can't maintain quarantine for more than a month or two, after which your epidemic simply re-starts, and you don't get to re-impose the quarantine then because the first quarantine "failed".

Again, not a binary situation. Given the degree of individualism and freedom, that's unlikely to work anyway.

> 3. Vaccine is over a year out in the best case, assuming it works at all.

Agreed

> If it's anything like the flu vaccine, chances of it working reliably on mutated strains are approximately nil.

While this is likely -- I'm not an expert, so I'd rather refrain from such categorical statements.

> 4. Younger people tolerate the disease much better, and if they build up immunity to it while the senior population self-isolates, the overall number of deaths could be minimized.

False dichotomy -- younger people can still be better protected by reducing non-essential contacts.

> 5. Due to how widespread and virulent this is, it will just become the "new flu", and it will come back with mutations every year. We can't do what we're doing now every year, at least not if the goal is to minimize deaths.

That's right, but counting primarily on herd immunity while neglecting other measures does NOT minimize deaths.
The numerator is underestimated in a way separate from testing. People don't die immediately after they're diagnosed. They die some time after, during which the number of cases increases. Since the naive CFR is just the total number of deaths divided by the total number infected (assuming perfect knowledge of both -- the latter is also underestimated, for reasons you mentioned), this will always underestimate the true CFR until the spread reaches a steady state.
Shitposting and its consequences have been a disaster for Intenet discourse.
Those benefits only apply to people who work at companies that have less than 500 employees. Unfortunately, that leaves most people in the lurch.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/opinion/coronavirus-pelos...
DigitalOcean was actually a C Corp, they switched to a LLC down the road.
Oh, I thought they were embedding stories in blocks.
Well satire is a bit strong. But I think the plan seems unwise, due to unvalidated assumptions (especially that immunity will last during a second wave) and the nature of their health system. If an effective treatment emerges, they will also have made a mistake.
Covid-19 Raw Data for Pandas?
COVID-19 Raw Data?

I'm looking for data that can be modeled in Pandas at the county level in the US.

So far this site seems to be tracking the data at the county level; but, it's not easy to get a time line history.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/?fbclid=IwAR20-yFkUrJ5sIvmsDQkEfTEmiHY2o8rDGByBEURSR3iL1ukEKw6LBOmyYk

Johns Hopkins no longer lists the data at the US county level:

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Although it's important to note here that French people take just a completely silly amount of painkillers, so there may be overuse problems being conflated into the recommendations. If your local health authorities say using painkillers is appropriate, I wouldn't rule that out.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10194-008-0046-6
> but in a one-step-removed-from-eugenics kind of way

He'll still hand pick the people he sends to mars I bet, which in a way is disguised eugenics.
Actually it does for all of them!

- Schools: The US department of Education contributed 8% of all funding to the entire public school system of the US in 2012-13. (source: https://www2.ed.gov/about/overview/fed/role.html)

- Roads: "The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Highway Trust Fund tax revenue will total $41 billion in fiscal year 2018" (source: https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-highway-t...)

- Internet: Not only was the internet created by the Department of the Defense in the 1960's and 70's (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet#History) It's expansion is also subsidized by the FCC (source: https://www.fcc.gov/consumer-governmental-affairs/about-bure...)

- Mortgages: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide important stabilization and support to the mortgage industry. (source: https://www.fhfa.gov/SupervisionRegulation/FannieMaeandFredd...)
I think it’s completely sensible for critical infrastructure to be air gapped and for people maintaining it to go into the office. This should be in the same category of jobs that cannot do remote work as doctors, nurses, etc that just have to be on site.

This is not the time to do sweeping IT architecture changes.

That being said, I think lots of normal companies have horrible IT security infrastructures that focus on compliance and covering peoples asses in case things go wrong as opposed to actual security. Those usually also make it hard for remote workers (vs BeyondCorp), which is now coming back to bite them.
Or even an minor ache
you're technically right, but i think from a policy making standpoint it doesn't matter because it's the exponential part that needs to be contained by policy and not the saturation part. this is where the hard decisions have to be made. if no decisions are made, saturation starts to happen when the game is lost.
They are limited in length though, max 12800 characters per book.
Kissinger was referring to a famous line of Palmerston, who of course was speaking of the UK. The statement doesn't apply to one country.

(Edit: that might have been clearer with one more word: The statement doesn't apply to just one country.)
PR for fixing that here ... https://github.com/lensapp/lens/pull/124

They had an image in the repo, but it wasn't referenced in the readme.
>considering the nature of exponentials.

That’s the thing that makes this analysis nonsensical. You are looking at the first 2 months of an exponential and treating it like a fixed rate. You should treat it as an exponential and extrapolate another 10 months with number of cases doubling every 4-6 days and then use that number as the deaths per year.

I’m honestly blown away that Musk is saying this.
Writing small utility functions in Swift
Why Developers Need a CMS, No Exceptions
Note that the article is in the opinion section of the Guardian. Incidentally, their live blog has been really good on the corona-virus stuff.
Are you asking about dextromethorphan or some other cough suppressant? I don't think there's any real evidence one way or the other yet.
My heuristic is to take a oversimplified idea and express it in an authoritative tone on social/economic/administrative topics. Sign the username with pg and you’re good.
> He pointed out that there have been 36,000 automotive deaths

Across the world governments spend billions on measures to curb these.

It would be significantly higher if we didn't have speed zones, cameras, police etc.

Maybe in Musk's world view we should cut this spending and not worry about preventible deaths.
I was 6 years old when this document was released to the public. It was written by a man who mailed bombs to people, killing several. He mailed this document to many large newspapers, demanding they publish it under the threat of further acts of terrorism. Eventually, law enforcement pushed for publication by the New York Times and the Washington Post, hoping that a member of the public could help identify the author. In 1996, about half a year after its publication, Kaczynsky was arrested.

It seems to me that, given all of this, we have something of a moral obligation to ignore this document. The ideas it contains are quite widespread; you can read them elsewhere. Of course you must listen to your own conscience, but how is publicizing this not giving a murderous terrorist exactly what he wanted?
any reason to doubt it? I mean they are made of flesh and blood as well.
It's an awareness project, so I think it's really the opposite.
Take action now.
I'd pity the fools that would be stuck implementing such a complex protocol
CoronaVirus – Zero-Moderation
It is surprising how many people do not seem to realize these things.
Coronavirus crisis to last until spring 2021
The likelihood of a mutation that evades (or is more severe because of) immune response to previous infections is directly proportional to the number of cases, i.e. is growing exponentially.

There is some evidence that prior exposure to other coronavirus (including vaccination) is an additional risk factor for loss of lung function.

So, yes, the influenza A experience is relevant. In that instance, those with a strong immune response had a greater fatality rate.
Suffering has a lot to do with the current psychological state of our minds and how our surroundings affect our subjective perception.

You are thinking in terms of materialistic well-being which plays only a part of the whole well-being we can achieve.

The thing is that right now, even if you are in the "comfort zone" of the society it doesn't mean you will feel happy, fulfilled and in a balanced state of mind, because we are all filled with those destructive/unbalanced parts of our "cultural DNA" that together with our subjective destructive/unbalanced behavior will make the whole life experience not that much fulfilling the way we know it can be.

Particularly, i think our societies are "culturally sick" in a lot of areas and there's a lot of evidence of our downfall in those areas.

I can bet with you that i life in a remote tribe in Africa for instance would feel much more fulfilling and happy than a life in our society surrounded with material comfort and tech gadgets that make our lives more bearable.

I wonder if we are actually inclined to invent those stuff, because we feel miserable and we think that they will remedy this problem at least a little bit (guy invent a social network because he feel lonely).

Sure, the answer is not to go back and live in tribes, but i wonder what we have lost in the way. This civilization where at the same time, we are so proud of, but is also the reason we will feel more sadness than happiness, because in the end our problem is not in how materially safe we are, but how contempt we feel with our current situation.

Also lets not forget how about making more things, we ended up in a state where we need more things to feel happiness in our current cultural status quo.

Wanting things and not being able to have them, is part of our misery, and we are always creating new things so people will have the urge to desire them.

The paradox is that the material comfort gives you with one hand, and take with the other.

On the other hand, i think we are having better lives, because we are becoming more civilized as a whole and more educated and sophisticated. The social sphere and how we relate to others is a key part to our happiness.

How much tech and progress are helping us to achieve this? (and other possible side-effects that actually contribute to our mood balance)
A Web Worker to handle OAuth2 authentication flows
This is also showing in UK already, where mortality rate seems to be ~3% now. And it is already announced that people who don't need hospitaliztion won't be tested. So number of confirmed cases will appear relatively low but death rate will go up.
Recent Android and iOS versions report false, randomized Bluetooth addresses to prevent exactly that.
Also, the time cost of preparation.

I don't think there's a common understanding of how much time working class people have to spend on work. It's frequently on the order of 50-60 hours across more than one job, plus the attendant transit and pre-work chores. Your job doesn't provide you with cheap, healthy food on-site. You frequently can't eat on the way to or from work, per transit rules or enhanced police presence on your route. Lunch breaks are a strict 30 minutes, and being late can get you fired (hope whatever you're eating doesn't have too much fiber). You may have to go out of your way to shop, if you live in a food desert, and apartment fridges preclude buying in bulk. Oh, and for a racial angle, produce in cities (and, not uncommonly, in majority-minority suburbs) costs more than in white suburbs and rural areas.

We have so many UX experts on here, is it really that difficult to think of this problem as an experiential narrative instead of an engineering problem that can be solved by tweaking a few variables?
I heavily disagree on the doubling time being closer to 7 days.

If you have a look at Germany who is having a very good overview of the spread of the pandemic since testing is free, available, and done rapidly (5h turnaround time ) capacity for 12.000 tests a day ) you get a close to 3 day case doubling time currently if you look at the official German numbers from the Robert Koch Institute. And we'll start seeing in a week or two how good the drastic containment measures they are starting now are impacting the growth or viral spread.

11.03.2020 1,288.00

12.03.2020 1,567.00

13.03.2020 2,369.00

14.03.2020 3,062.00

15.03.2020 3,795.00

16.03.2020 4,838.00

In a country like the US where the Author makes his calculations the government frankly has zero clue how many people are infected already because testing is not free, not available and not rapid ( current turnaround 3 -5 days ) for most citizens. There is a chance that the case doubling time is worse, or bigger, but if Germany who had a lot better reaction to the viral threat is having problems reaching a case doubling time of 6+ days
and if you think about that China is at 80.000 cases now but put the most drastic containment measures in at only 600 confirmed cases there is a huge probability we are all in for a very wild ride.

That said every day counts because there are promising randomized control studies going on in China which hopefully give doctors access to a drug they can actually help people with. Right now all they can do is support your breathing and pump you full with a cocktail of meds they have no idea if it will work for the specific patient or not. Everyone who lands into ICU with Covid-19 is basically a guinea pig for the rest of us healthy people at this point.

In the end all that matters right now is that we don't know enough about the illness to treat it effectively, and we are in desperate need of time because no government was prepared for a pathogen like this that usually is a once in a century event.

P.S: This is a current snapshot. If the containment measures like in China are working the case doubling rate rises quite fast. China is at over 21+ days now. But I think it's important to take this day by day and re-evaluate the numbers. The "doomsdays predictions" will most likely be wrong and just a theoretical numbers game.
Evolution of Version Control System (VCS) Internals – Part 2
To say the government opted 'to encourage the flames' is disingenuous. Presumably their statistical model indicated they won't be able to contain the spread which is why the current stated aim is to delay the spread[0]. Delay, not encourage.

The article's suggestions seem to be in line with the government's stance. The main difference is timing with Dr William Hanage saying measures should have been adopted weeks ago while the government claims their modelling tells them to adopt measures later.

The government should be challenged by questioning whether it truly is/was impossible to contain the epidemic and what the best time to introduce different measures is. This article, however, adds very little to that debate with hand-waving in place of evidence.

[0]: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-government-annou...
Let's dig a huge gaping hole into that infrastructure with a VPN and BYOD. And when it doesn't work, blame IT support for not properly supporting my dusty old Windows XP installation. Sure.

What you want is separation, though for real work it quickly becomes impractical. So there are special rules for something, and suddenly, everybody are running on those not-so-special rules anymore.

IT security is still mostly about people and awareness at this point.
> When I finished listening to the Minimalists podcast (first 120 episodes)

;)
That was intentional, because they last ten years.
Seems to be free only on the web not in the Android app
Many of us already have.

Calling the hero diver a pedophile, bailing out his cousin's SolarCity company and allowing Autopilot to kill people are just a few of his many ethically questionable actions.
Until a day or so ago Boris Johnson advocated for a herd immunity when it was not proved to be true for Corona. So no, it did not call for same social distancing as other countries.
They were wrong, though.
I think its high time we recognize bitcoin for the failure it is. I mean it was created ostensibly as a response to the perceived instability of reserve banking such as the fed. But it is far more unstable. There are many reasons for Bitcoin to be as unstable as it, including but not limited to, the fact that it is not a currency but a commodity, it lacks liquidity, its fungibilty is a huge problem, and the concept of PoW is incredibly flawed. The only thing keeping the experiment running is the village people who are afraid to admit they aren't as pure in their libertarian ideology if they admit that the emperor is fucking naked.
No. It tells you if you'll have 10mm in 30d or 20d.

(assuming business as usual)
Maybe something like GoFundMe but with gift cards that have <100% redemption value, so it's neither entirely charity or unfunded liability. You need some transparency into the funding goals. Maybe even provide some sliding scale where after a certain amount purchased, the gift cards trend upwards towards 100%.
Spire – Pragmatic Provisioning Using Clojure