Oooook, if you insist. :-) I'll repeat my points to make this a fuller response. The numbers here correspond to the original numbers above... Beyond that, the rest of the numbers are not in a good order yet. I'll fix this in the blog post.

(1) Erosion of international trust. As I mentioned earlier, this is a big issue. However, I think it's actually going to get worse after the COVID-19 crisis. EU member states are closing borders and not collaborating on a EU-wide solution; this is after having annoying post-Brexit budget debates where they struggled to agree on an EU-wide budget. How do you come back to the table in a post-COVID-19 world and trust each other to rebuild the EU? It will be tough.

(2) We've already seen TRILLIONS of dollars pumped into national economies. We're seeing countries with deficits and huge debt-to-GDB ratios printing money or committing funds they'll have trouble paying off. No one is questioning how Italy, Spain, etc. will pay for their financial support... The same goes for the US. I don't think it's important to question all of this in too much detail right now, but we'll have to figure out how to recover economically in the longer run.

This is even worse for individual companies. Airlines, airports, travel companies will all have to be bailed out. What other industries will suffer? Performance and ticketing companies, retail... These are industries that are always on the brink of collapse from a financial perspective, and now you'll have one or two quarters of significant drops in revenue. They might not be able to recover.

Case in point, we have nearly 5 million Americans working in retail. Retail isn't feeling the hit of COVID-19 in the short-run, but just wait until everything is locked down[1].

(3) Small businesses. They will receive some support -- loan obligations might be deferred, employment insurance might help their employees, etc... There are 50 million Americans employed in firms with 99 employees of less[2]. How many of those will be put at risk.

(4) The dynamics of the economy itself will likely change. The challenge with a lot of the debates around helping people today is, "How do we operationalize this?" For example, you can't simply let people not pay their mortgages; this will lead to lenders struggling financially.

The WSJ was reported that the Fed is considering buying Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) to help those with mortgages get some relief with regards to payments and interest rates. The Financial Times reported that the Spanish government is considering buying factories and businesses to support the economy. There's been talk that the Fed might buy shares in companies as well.

Think about how much of a HUGE change and precedent this is... Especially given the vitriol around State-backed enterprises in China. I'm not arguing for or against, but this is a big change.

(5) Supply chains. We're going to see companies invest in more resilient supply chains, risk monitoring, etc. This will lead to tons of interesting opportunities.

(6) WHO becomes less relevant. Given that no country is following WHO guidelines -- the WHO guidelines they all negotiated together -- I wonder how this will end for international organizations like WHO? The same goes for the EU, given the issues above. Play this out and you have an erosion of major alliances and thus, I believe, more conflict.

(7) Aggressive governments will take advantage of number 6 above... Think about the oil price war right now. Is this really necessary right now, or is this simply a fantastic opportunity to hurt certain countries' oil interest and businesses? Kick industries while they're down, so to speak.

The scary part here is if someone decides to use COVID-19 as a pretense for a foreign armed conflict or invasion... Or simply starts a war because they know other countries don't have the necessary willpower to defend the invaded/wronged party. I'm not saying this will happen... But if I were an aggressive world leader, I'd be considering my options here.

I'll stop but will let you guys know when I write a formal post. :-)

[1] https://www.bls.gov/ooh/sales/retail-sales-workers.htm
[2] https://www.bls.gov/web/cewbd/table_f.txt