skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The subject of this whole discussion is that there's a travel restriction being put in place. This is why I believe promoting numbers that were arrived at prematurely (I would argue unethically, with the intention of being 'first' in the news) and that specifically don't account for countermeasures to be a bad idea.

We should be trying to promote risk assessments that are situationally correct.
We're not really hearing any reports of unexplained deaths that might be covid deaths, and the US is advanced enough to not miss deaths like that, so one thing that might put an upper bound on how behind we are. Then again, there's a delay while symptoms progress.
Restricting travel from Europe & China isn't a typical response to a seasonal flu.
> also at https://lwn.net/Articles/703005/

Um, that article includes quotes stating that cautiously expanding commit rights to the submaintainer's tree can help solve this scalability problem? And the more recent email you quote says this about the underlying reason this sometimes fails (and the lead developer can't cope with incoming patch volume, thus tending to burn out in the process - this is the "can't scale" they're talking about):

"...they [others] don't want to do it because they are scared of making a mistake and being yelled at by Our Mighty Leaders. That is a result of the fact that a Linux Maintainer is seen as a _powerful position_ because of the _control and influence_ it gives that person. It's also treated like an exclusive club (e.g. invite-only conferences for Maintainers) ... How many people do you know who have voluntarily given up a Maintainer position because they really didn't want to do it or they thought someone else could do a better job?"

So I fail to see how contentiousness and being more confrontational than not is helping there. The linux-kernel developers are in fact doing a pretty good job of not yelling at the real newcomers (which is what most people calling for CoC's usually focus on) yet the newcomers' patches still go unreviewed. And fiddling with rules of conduct is supposed to change this for the better, how? The more you do that, the less maintainers will be inclined to renounce their formally-acknowledged influence over the project.
South Korea has been at 0.8% the last two days, and will continue to climb as their open cases resolve one way or another. Plus, didn't they just have a spike in Seoul?
3.6+
Until the hospitals are overloaded.
Problem being, best information is there is no solid numbers on initial case load in the US, for structural reasons. So while your argument may be correct, it may be too late for this to make a difference (perhaps with equal likelihood, but we don't know.)
The NBA's Twitter account is now confirming they have suspended it for now:

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1237917831506857989
I beg to differ. US was the first major country to ban travel from China. Other countries only followed suit after. South Korea, Japan, France, Germany and Italy never did, and see where they are now.
A single car driving on the street only affects the homes that knowingly bought a car on the busy street. A helicopter, or 1000 of them per day, affects about 90x more homes on a single pass.
I hope so too. The season exceeded my expectations and it’d be sad if this black swan event is what kills any chance of summer football for another two decades.
So in addition to lefse and lutefisk, are there any other Norwegian foods you recommend? Ps, I’ve had a hot dog wrapped in lefse... it’s not bad.. especially with chili.
Probably 50% of the post in newest now :(.
Everything from smoking to high blood pressure to diabetes to old age to obsesity is considered a "pre-existing condition."

Yes, killing 5% of infected people is serious, especially when viruses of a similar family regularly infect 20% of the population, and the population has no inborn resistance to this partical virus, and it is, provisionially, more infectious than similar viruses.

Simple models suggest we'll have 500k deaths or so by 2021. Of course, it could be less than that, but it could also be more. It's almost certain we'll end up with some days with a 9/11 worth of deaths; it's just a question of whether that's a few days or for months on end.
And because people with mild symptoms aren't likely going to the doctor. They can't afford to take off work and go, and if it's simply mild right now, why risk their livelihood? I kinda hope this whole thing is a wake-up call for why our system is so unsustainable.
That specific source is not the only one stating those numbers. Here is Angela Merkel saying as many as 70% [1]. Here is another doctor saying 40% [2] (sorry there is an autoplay video on this site).

[1] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856

[2] - https://www.wbaltv.com/article/what-percent-of-people-in-the...
Presumably it's an English speaking country with tighter ties.
Here is the official proclamation: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation...
Is external travel a significant input of new vectors compared to internal travel?
I'm betting we've been seeded since even before Wuhan's quarantine started. My folks and I all got pretty thoroughly sick during a cruise in early January, and they're becoming increasingly convinced it was COVID (especially since my stepmom tested negative for any sort of flu, and this was well before there were reports of COVID outside of China so of course the doctors wouldn't think to test for it even if they happened to have a test kit); it's increasingly difficult for me to be skeptical of that conclusion.

Thankfully all of us seemed to get over it without much complication, and it doesn't seem like very many of the people we've since interacted with have come down with it. We might very well have just been lucky, though.
After running the 1st race in Qatar with only the moto 2 & moto 3 classes, MotoGP has rescheduled the next 3 races for later dates in the season. That's a lot of money deferred indefinitely.

Edit:

Closer to home(mine), I was sent away at the doors of a minor league hockey game in the midwest tonight. Only team, staff & media personnel were allowed in the doors for the game that was still being played.
I just learned that testing kits are wrong almost 30% of the time, that means they are more likely to contribute to misinformation than not.

Therefore, just wait for it to happen?
The Dedekind cut formulation of the real numbers is that a real number is defined to be a nonempty "downwards closed" subset of rational numbers. Then the min operation corresponds to taking intersections, and taking intersections is associative.

It's cool they figured something like this out from first principles.

edit: oops, somehow didn't notice arnarbi already mentioned this!
A little, not a lot. On the very pessimistic side, it will at least convince all the casual travelers who go "ooo look at the cheap airfare! I'm sure I'll be fine" from booking/traveling. Overall this will have a very chilling effect on travel, even to non-targeted regions.

However, we do already have the virus in the USA. So it's not suddenly going to go away because of this proclamation.
Twitter now has mandatory WFH
Who would have expected them to help the world in any way? First they profit from it, then run away and will be back to reap benefits...
and there’s no shortage of other meetings to go to
13 things tech companies can do to fight coronavirus
> I can't believe the 40-70% number.

I can. Look at how seriously China shut down cities etc and it still spreads, though much slower. Do you think western nations will take the level of action China has at all or in anyhting similar to the same time frames?

And to be clear, when I say 'I can' I'm not claiming Im right or predicting anything, I really dont know. But this seems as likely as any other scenario especially when experts are saying levels around this.
So suppliers can book a time with your facility, and they can enter details about the delivery, e.g truck type, number of pallets, number of lifts? Does the software limit them to particular docks that are compatible with their truck, e.g side unload with a forklift vs rear unload with a pallet rider? Does it take into account resource availability as well as dock availability, e.g a double trailer still takes one dock but can take much longer to unload? Also a warehouse might be limited to how much work per hour they can process during certain times of the day, e.g morning vs afternoon and during lunch breaks or shift changes.
Oh, ok. I was comparing it with 'list.sort()', but yeah, this one mutates the list and returns None (just checked it), so 'sorted' is the expected way to sort a dictionary keys, and my post is just wrong.
That study isn't saying anything contrary to what the CDC is saying. Or am I the parent that you're agreeing with, and you meant "regardless of whatever the CDC is saying?"
Shopify is giving its employees $1k to furnish their work-from-home setups
I was thinking the same thing. Even though I'd been following this since January and have already been taking it very seriously, Hanks, NBA, and Europe travel ban suddenly make it seem like there's a loud knock at the door.
The first US layoffs from the coronavirus are here
Truth is even if the Dow is at 23000 it's still up 30% from where it was in November 2016.

What would help, although it would probably cause Trump to lose the election...would be if he was to reduce or remove sanctions against Russia in exchange for them reducing oil production in accordance with OPECs wishes. That would allow the Saudis and UAE to turn down the taps, oil prices would recover and the banks wouldn't be facing loan defaults from US shale companies.

Of course that would never happen, at least not before November and by then the Wuhan fever will be even worse, pretty much a perfect one two punch on the markets.
Other great articles on regexes from rsc:

https://swtch.com/~rsc/regexp/regexp1.html

https://swtch.com/~rsc/regexp/regexp2.html
This has not happened in Korea, Japan or Singapore, and all have been dealing with the virus for longer than Europe.

At some point, this scary story is going to have to be adjusted to reflect reality.
The tips on how to prototype are very good. Let me give another perspective though:

You shouldn’t always prototype first, before mapping what kind of problem you have, at the risk of reinventing the (square) wheel.

Rapid prototyping is the holy grail software is known for. But prototypes are not always cheap, and almost always go to prod and turn into technical debt. In other disciplines the instinct to just try something first would sound ridiculous (e.g. let’s always figure out open heart surgery from scratch, it’s just a quick experiment, if the patient dies we figure out later).

I’m a fan of the Cynefin framework [1] as a higher level tool to figure out if I should prototype at all - even if not very precise, because at least it forces me to think about it.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework
Yes! Publish a graphql schema that is parseable by apollo graphql please! I tried to use your API on my companies internal source graph setup and had to hand roll my API calls because of these errors.
Working with chromium/v8, I can honestly say google's code search infra is one of the most valuable resources available. I really hope they open source the backend at some point.
> isolating their elderly

Given the mortality rates by age bracket, this makes a huge amount of sense. Subject to their mental and emotional needs being given every consideration, of course.

Assuming (1) a large amount of the public will eventually be infected, (2) infections are (generally speaking) only fatal in older people... why not best protect the most vulnerable among us?

At this point, nursing homes and assisted living facilities should be staff-only, guaranteed paid sick leave, with teleconferencing equipment set up for families.

Wait until new case rate peaks, then start looking at relaxing the restrictions.
You're... reverse fearmongering? Downplaying?

Additionally, for someone calling others' claims bullshit, your numbers have no correspondence to reality. In Wuhan, the 3% number was for the general population; for the 70+ age range, it was ~20%.
A lot of goods travel by air from China. See all Apple products (this is a guess, could be wrong)
Coronavirus survivor Connor Reed tells his story [video]
I OBVIOUSLY refer to non vital things like offices, all public places that aren't pharmacies and grocery stores, and even those should have access strictly regulated like in Italy and probably cut to a minimum public transport and put checkpoints on the major bridges to make sure people move only if strictly necessary. Essentially what's being done in Europe already.

Only a person in bad faith would think something different.
all that and you entirely missed the point. surrender as a broad concept is necessary because alcoholism is an illogical, slippery disease. to get sober, you have to accept that you cannot do something that it seems like everyone else can
We also found out this week that a man that is showing signs of dementia is all but certain to win the democratic primary and face Trump for the presidency. Weird times.
But they don't literally expect 20-60% - that's if no mitigation happens.
There is an effect, because traveling itself creates chances for exposure. Anyone traveling on an airplane or train in close quarters, or passing through an airport or transit facility, can pick up or pass on an infection.

By your last analogy, the red balls would have paint rubbed off them in the exchanges.
Kubernetes DevOps/NoOps Definition
I tried modeling infection rates, number of infected, and total number recovered and dead. Couple of things stood out.

1. Reducing the transmission rate lowers the total number of people sick at one time. Lowers the ultimate number who contract it. And pushes the peak infection rate out.

2. The above numbers are very sensitive to r0.

3. An exponential when it hits looks like a wall. You end up with a significant percentage of the population sick at once.

Could be my model being shitty but it looks like at high r0 there is a momentum effect which drives the total number infected above what you would expect.
Do you have an official source on that?
Seems excessive for viruses. They live nowhere near that long outside their hosts.

Even a day is a long period of time in optimal conditions, and not many situations are close to optimal.
There was a spike in Seoul. Based on their reaction so far, I have a great deal of confidence in their ability to isolate it and react effectively.

Regarding the rise in CFR: it will naturally go up as cases decline, because fatalities stem from a time when the case rate was more rapidly increasing. Korea’s case rate had been declining for several days:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12297080012...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/heal...
The Year Not to Fly
Yep, notice how in the speech how many times he mentioned China and blamed Europe for not closing off to China.

Unfortunately this kind of measure is going to increase the R0 of the virus, because some people will think "oh I see, the virus is over there, and now the president has closed off that vector."
I see loads of people saying that we're beyond containment, and they're correct. However, it does slow infection rates to some degree. That allows us the time to try to learn more about how it behaves, how repeated cases impact people who aren't currently affected as much, and find ways to combat it. That's a positive.
There's this https://github.com/google/zoekt. It's pretty light on features, but dang if it isn't fast and precise.
missing the point entirely. alcoholism is illogical. alcoholism is not something one can control. surrender is a key part of the program because to get sober the alcoholic must accept that they cannot do something that it seems everyone else can (drink)
Boy, I'm glad I did my big grocery store today and not tomorrow.
> ... the US has a problem as it granted the President broad discretionary powers to suspend international travel but not domestic gatherings, which can't be banned via executive order and even if congress were to pass a law banning such gatherings, there would be first amendment implications as well as federalism issues.

I don't know how strong that actually is. Over the past few years, we've seen some Trump work the courts pretty consistently. Even if his administration is doing something explicitly unconstitutional, running something all the way to the Supreme Court can take 6 to 18 months, during which time the unconstitutional order would stand (if not stayed early on).
Here I was thinking that the three of you were being super sarcastic. Just Googled it and found out there's a new XFL...
New rules could spell end of 'throwaway culture'
I can't pretend to be an expert on this. All I can do is defer to experts, look at the numbers as they currently stand, and do some simplistic math. I also don't have the skills to vet the various experts, but I can tell you I have more faith in the vetting process of places like CBS News, BBC, Harvard, Johns Hopkins, and the German government than I do Joe Rogan.
This is false. Any reduction in travel is going to have a positive effect. The best situation is for people to reduce their exposure to other people and to stay at home. If they do need to be exposed to others, the best is for them to be exposed to the same set of people all the time, and not to different sets of people.
Still not a reason to let more coyotes in.
for a while it doesn't, we have ample strategic reserves. This is exactly the job FEMA was invented to do even if in this country it's not funded properly and it would be a problem for sure.

But this thing is going to be a huge fucking problem no matter what, if we keep doing what we're doing about 17M people are going to die.
No it isn’t. We’re told it’s fuzzy to let politicians off the hook.

Your rights end where mine start.

Let’s be real here: a mathematical majority is unable to afford flying anyway. This freedom people ramble on is really economic dominance of the majority for minority benefit.

Stop living in an emotional clean room. The literal world doesn’t have to give a shit about your bubble.
This appears to be a design flaw/feature of WireGuard so it won't be getting fixed.
There are many more flights terminating in the UK than any other European country. Plus, American students studying abroad in the UK have yet to return home.
Sharp files patent infringement lawsuit against U.S. TV brand Vizio
The link should be changed to: https://www.dhs.gov/news/2020/03/11/homeland-security-acting...

..for official government info, and not a speech by an orange dude or news sites hungry for clicks.
Sure, but I’ve always interpreted it in the sense that you have to surrender to the fact that you are powerless under the influence of alcohol, that you are incapable of doing something that it seems everyone else can (drink)
I wonder if the NCAA will follow suit. I know they already said the games would be empty
Just yesterday I listened to an interview with a medical expert, and the host asked him if he should cancel his domestic holiday plans. The host assured him that was premature.

And yet here we are the next day. The situation is evolving rapidly.
Yeah it's clearly a token move to pretend like they're doing something. The cv19 test is free but all the other tests they will undoubtedly and necessarily run before that are not. And if you end up in the er as a poor person, you'll likely go bankrupt or take a massive hit even with insurance. That'll keep people away. Who knows how long it'll be before we have massive testing like Korea. Maybe never.
This is amazing, I've been wanting something like this for a long time!
Washington has just, for example, banned all events with over 250 people in them for the three most affected counties.

Cities and counties in CA had been doing the same with different thresholds. Which meant an NBA game was going to be played without fans (since then, the NBA season has been suspended, which is a pretty significant measure in and of itself).

Many schools have been closing in the Seattle area, and just today the Seattle school district, and many outlying school districts closed for at least two weeks. That's a lot of school closures.

Many companies are having employees work from home wherever possible. The amount of traffic in Seattle during rush-hour is an astronomical change. There's very light traffic during rush hour in places that used to be wall-to-wall vehicles.

As someone living in the Seattle area, it feels like life has substantially changed.
Autonomous Drifting using Machine Learning [video]
Please stop. We are in the middle of a global crisis. Can HN stop obsessing over opportunism for one minute?
Stonks already hit the downside circuit breakers.
People on reddit (take that as you will) have been reporting that even if the symptoms are significant and match the profile, tests aren't being run if no travel has taken place recently. These people get turned away.

It matches this article on restrictive testing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavir...
Some commenters on this post are having a hard time acknowledging this aspect. I think every little bit helps, this included
Outbound flights are going to get a hell of a lot more expensive if all the planes have to return to the US empty.
Wrong either way.

If one doesn't work, try another. Depression is a lot of different illnesses with one name. What helps one might make another worse. The only way to know which you have is which med helps. If any. Some of them (nobody knows how many) don't have a working treattment yet. Others absolutely do, and if it's the one you have, lucky you.
unpopular opinion: personally I'm not optimistic that any good lesson will come out of covid19 outbreak.

every recent viral outbreak seem to have generated more and more overreaction that will not only seriously bring in the economic crash that so many have been asking for but also generate resistance to actually serious future outbreaks.
It may never do because Apple's philosophy for window management isn't to make windows any bigger than they need to be — except for full screen windows, which is clearly made for the MacBook Air crowd.

In the mean time, try BetterSnapTool for all your snapping needs. :-)
3% of the infected, not 3% of everyone. You can't compare it to WW2 unless you assume everyone will be infected.
Do you believe epidemiologists can’t account for that?
> Ugh, USA is at the moment likely on level with Europe.

Probably not true, as we don't have 1000 deaths yet. Though, give it two weeks, and we'll easily have caught up (to where Europe is today).
So, I don’t believe in karma, but man that is something. I wonder if deep in his subconscious he knew he had the disease, and was acting rebellious.
The RST cannons still exist and they usually offload that in the domestic China networks to take the load off the GFW. The operators have to pay for them, though :(

As for the GFWs tactics they've certainly expanded things into jacking with TLS in addition to a few other things.

Nice to meet another person who struggles with China and knows what they're talking about and doesn't spread fud like most of the people I deal with on a regular basis.
It certainly helps, it’s easier to control, and has a smaller impact on most people’s lives so more easily accepted. It’s not the most effective but other factors have to be considered, including social unrest. It seems a sensible decision IMO