skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Indeed, given what I remember of Tokyo's morning peak hour density in subway cars it would have gone ballistic or will yet. Although they do use routinely use masks even in normal times.

The cynical take is that aging demographic is one of the biggest problems facing Japan today and this is a way to deal with it.
OK. But those loan defaults are what lettergram feared would cause the banks to collapse. So they're not independent. The bank can collapse from other reasons, and loans can default without the bank collapsing, but in the scenario lettergram was talking about, loan defaults cause the bank failures.

So, you're right, but I think my overall point still stands.
The FAQ explicitly states that it is permissible to go outside and get all the fresh air, sun, and vitamin D that you like, provided that you stay away from other people.
From the numbers of a previous article the answer is x17. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea... (HN discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22575356 ) I prefer a rounded number to not give an illusion of precision, so x20, but there are too many approximations and unknown factor, so it's hopefully closer to x10, but it may be x30.

That article was heavily flagged because it has a bad title and a pessimistic message, but it was the first article that I saw with an approximate calculation of the size of the problem.
If you subtract all the cyclists who are hit by cars from those statistics, then cycling is orders of magnitude safer. It's only dangerous when there are cars on the road.
See Monero. Transaction senders, recipients, and amounts are hidden by default.
There's nothing wrong with that in of itself, but if it stomps out any potential competition and renders them unable to compete after a certain degree of monopolization, what sort of position will consumers eventually be placed in?
That's... completely insane. There "aren't many reasons to be doing it too early"? Stopping, or at least slowing the spread of a worldwide pandemic isn't a good reason? Preventing 3% of your population from dying over the next year isn't a good reason?

Waiting until the problem obviously seems like a real problem is exactly what crushed cultures under epidemics in the past.
15-20% don't require hospitalization. More were hospitalized to be monitored, but only about 40/705 infected from the Diamond Princess ever progressed to serious condition. And the population of cruise ships skews older.
Any companies using Erlang or Elixir?
Any companies using Erlang or Elixir?
How Althea is using crypto to bring Internet to rural communities
Don't Terminate People's Internet Connections
YC launches a new fundraising format: The one-slide summary
The problem is separating the great recessions from less dramatic recessions. Was 2008/2009 a once in a decade recession or once in a century recession? In a normal recession you'll never get Ford for $1, and most stocks will never feel that cheap.
According to Strong Towns, it's because the building can borrow money based on the projected value of rent. If they lower the rent, they can't borrow as much money.

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2017/11/27/the-paradox-o...
If Bezos needs an evil villain lair for his secret headquarters, I know a fortress in the American desert with three-foot-thick stone walls, solar and diesel electricity, and its own water facilities, perched on a mountain ridge for maximum visibility 150 miles from anywhere meaningful.

Last I saw, it was for sale for $750k.
Its not as good as a doctors or even an RN degree, but I wonder could a crash course for health care workers tailored specifically to the symptoms of this disease be sufficient to fill that gap?
Exactly: put quite simply the best mitigation measure is a mask, since it prevents most of the virus from getting into the air--the virus's primary medium of transmission.

Even simpler--don't wear a mask for yourself, but for others.
Everything happening right now are delay strategies to get a vaccine / antiviral treatment. Before we can control this the economy will be shut down. Nothing will be like before, the financial stress in the global economy is too extreme.
Thank you for quoting poetry in a context. And good luck with employment!
Score by Hildur Guðnadóttir
Just on the first track, but this is quite good! Thanks for sharing your process.
That’s the definition of a bear market.
Someone sent me this link recently. Can anyone provide some color on what's actually being sold here? Is this just fraud or are there cheap tests already available in China?

https://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product...
Unfortunately you can't do Apple oriented development outside of their platform.
the article hints at a solution:

> The reason that this happens is that social distancing measures do not lead to herd immunity, so once they are lifted the epidemic starts again. In the absence of a vaccine, it is therefore meaningless to speak about whether a policy 'aims' to get herd immunity or not, since every country in the world will reach herd immunity unless it is able to implement social distancing for an indefinite period of time.

i predict this is exactly what will happen: indefinite social distancing. impact may be reduced with fast tests and large scale testing so isolation and contact quarantining is immediate.
Social Distancing: 100 Ideas What to Do at Home
The UK backed away from this insanity and will be implementing social distancing.

Thank god.
Thanks for clarifying, I didn’t recheck since we rolled out SSM in mid-2019 and then scrambled when we realised we’d granted account wide S3 permissions. The article I linked to also has a recommended minimal IAM policy for Run Command and SSM. I’ll update my comment to mention this.
Why were they even open? What work is happening in a WeWork that cannot be remote (facilities aside)?
Alameda County ORDER: http://www.acgov.org/documents/Final-Order-to-Shelter-In-Pla...

I was reading the Contra Costa County order when their site went down.
I look at it this way. Your essentially buying a companies future earnings by buying their stock. For some time here, corporate earnings are going to take a hit. B2C probably the hardest, but B2B will also feel the effects, ripple effect if you will. The strain these quarantines are putting on Small business owners will also ripple into the larger corporate companies that the market is composed off because these SBO are the consumers too.

I don't have a full understanding of the Repo market, but I do get it at a moderate level. I understand that it acts as the "lube" to our financial system and It's obvious it's not functioning correctly. What effect will this happen on the growing corporate debt that's out there? What effect will the lower revenues have on the ability for business' to pay back the debt and interest?

These are questions I have, but don't necessarily have factual answers for. However I don't feel good about the answers to them and for that reason do think were in for a recession.
Corona viruses are not “the cold.” Rhinovirus causes the common cold and corona viruses cause 10% of cold cases. Just like other corona viruses, they make a recurring appearance. But this is not because they mutate in the way the flu does. No corona viruses mutate in the way that the flu does. If you have some evidence to prove me wrong then produce it.

You definitely develop immunity to viruses that sicken you. For the average person who is healthy.

If there is a second wave it will only be because of overly aggressive quarantining. This is why I said it won’t happen. For it to work, it would have to be air tight. All these young kids staying home are just saving fuel for a second wave. Old people ought to stay home and let younger people gain herd immunity as quickly as possible.
You’ll be old one day, if you’re lucky.
I'm sure anyone who's done a thorough job putting a number to it (probably insurance companies) is probably also smart enough to know that there is little potential upside and much potential downside to sharing that analysis with current society.
Truly incredible
Do we know this? How?

From where I'm sitting, it feels just as plausible that it had mostly hit far larger saturation than people realize. Such that, even if this works, it should have been done literally months ago.

My perspective is someone in Seattle that almost certainly had this a month ago
This is something that I've been afraid of for a while. I know a few nurses that work in some of the most best staffed, well funded Magnet hospitals and they say they run at 90% capacity on the best of days.
Radare: Libre and Portable Reverse Engineering Framework
> It is very clear that capacity expansion has to be the priority now. It has not seriously been addressed by any government as near as I can tell.

Germany _did_ address this. Currently there are 25k beds with ventilator, the federal government ordered 10k ventilators more from the largest local supplier (Drägerwerke) and explicitly bypassed normal procurement laws.
That company is now extending manufacturing capacity, but it
won't be fast enough.
The UK strategy is based on the idea that the pandemic cannot be stopped, but can be slowed down and directed away from the most vulnerable. So there are certain assumptions there that people can agree or disagree with. But its not 'completely insane'.

And yes South Korea and China seem to have stopped the pandemic in their countries, and have done an impressive job at it, but its early days and not at all clear how sustainable their approach is, or whether that approach would work everywhere.
To try to answer my own question: it may be reasonable, however the problem of imported cases from other countries not doing the same still remains. This can restart the epidemic anew.
"than what’s currently accepted in the west" for western citizens, IFTFY
I agree. Swimming pools are more dangerous than the people realize. Never left the children unattended nearby a swimming pool.
So far number of cases has been multiplying by 10 every ~16 days. Incubation period is 4-14 days. I.e. when you institute quarantine, cases will still multiply like crazy for another 4-14 days. In other words, you have to do it "too early". If you do it when you're nearing ICU capacity, you are waaaay too late.
Nato has traditionally been an xmpp user. Now there are discussions about a successor. Matrix is being rolled out inside the french state (including the military) and there have been proposals to switch nato to it. I consider nato as well as french state employees to be "masses" of people.
There looks to be a good compilation here: https://codesync.global/media/successful-companies-using-eli...
Immunity? There are two strains of corvid in China. Even if you had it you can get another variant.
Not testing would still mean there should be an issue with lots of people dying from respiratory failure. If their infection rate is high even without testing I'd expect that issue to end up in the news.
How difficult can it be to build one? Ok, we're not going to have one tomorrow. But how about in 3 months time? 6 months?
At least the airlines will get another bailout, after selfishly spending billions on stock buybacks while shrinking seats and hiking fees.

Meanwhile, Joe Average, who ended up running a food truck when Wells Fargo "right sized" him during the last recession, will find a comfortable slab of concrete upon which to rest his head, under the viaduct.
Quantifying Coronavirus Risk for Business
That's not even close to true, schools, restaurants, pubs and sporting establishments are shut down. Events with 100 or more people attending are not allowed and the government is actively working to help companies deal with less productivity due to people working from home or in staggered shifts. They also recommend social distancing. This is not "Hey, we're going to let this run its course, take our lumps now, and try to get back to business as usual ASAP." as the grandparent mentioned.
Judging by this sample, Mary Dash should be receiving writing tips, not giving them.

Do you doubt me? Consider the opening paragraph:

Readers prefer active voice sentences, and we should try to use the active voice in most of our business writing to communicate our message most effectively. Active voice clearly identifies the action and who is performing that action. Unfortunately, much of government writing is in the passive voice, giving documents a wordy, bureaucratic tone. Over time, writing in the passive voice simply becomes a habit, one we should all work to change.

Here is a quick redraft:

We should use the active voice in most of our business writing. Readers prefer it, and will better understand our message. This style clearly identifies what the action is, and who is doing it. Unfortunately most government writing is in the passive voice. This gives documents a wordy, bureaucratic tone. We need to break that habit.

The message has not changed, but readability improved a lot. Use https://app.readable.com/text/ to test that. The required reading level went from grade 10 to advanced grade 5, and other measures of readability also improved.

This is a big difference. https://www.wyliecomm.com/2019/03/us-literacy-rate/ reports on a broad survey of adult literacy rates. Only 2% of US adults read and write at a grade 11 or better level. By contrast 48% read and write at a grade 6 or better level. My redraft is readable by an order of magnitude more people.

What did I change?

1. Break up complex sentences.

2. Shorter is better.

This isn't hard. But it really makes a difference.
Old people are generally in bonds at this point in their life. Bonds have been on a tear lately. Their investments are doing OK.
I was eyeballing various country deaths at worldometers.info, and they looked more like 8-11 days to me. Then again, the early South Korea stats looked steeper.

But yeah, I recognize the larger point is we want to know doubling rate of "actual cases", and since that's currently unknowable, identifying the most reliable proxy. It just seemed to me that our testing rate occludes "confirmed cases" more than death rate occludes "actual cases" - at least with death rates we can identify the time points when mitigation rates are introduced, when hospitals get overwhelmed, etc.
Bay Area's view of 2nd amendment is somewhat different from what you perceive to be USA's view.
This touches on another hobby horse of mine. Our society, both legally and as a matter of cultural habit, tends to prefer inaction to imperfect action. The fallacy, a sort of dual to the better known "We must do something, this is something, therefore we must do this", seems to be

1. Perfection is better than imperfection

2. All our options are imperfect

3. Therefore, we will do nothing

I am almost sure that our society, even without prior preparation, could physically produce huge numbers of "more effective than nothing" masks (especially for protecting others from the wearer, which is easier) very quickly at, say, 10x the cost (because you are recruiting less than ideal resources, like factory lines designed for other things that need extra labor) and 75% effectiveness (because you aren't applying the usual extremely strict standards that apply to NIOSH masks or whatever). Even if everyone taped a paper towel or sock over their face I bet it would reduce large droplet transmission by 50%. But we are not able to do so, because

1. These masks would cost more than masks used to cost ("price gouging!"). Imperfect.

2. They wouldn't work as perfectly as physically possible. Imperfect.

3. Some people would make money selling fake masks or whatever in the confusion. Imperfect.

4. We already made a bunch of regulations mandating perfection and no one wants to take responsibility for removing them

and maybe also

5. The people who should have stockpiled masks (edit: in the government or medical supply chain, I'm not saying individuals should have thought of this!) would have to admit their mistakes

So, "we" lie to people that masks are useless (charitably, so doctors can have more; uncharitably, because 5) and do nothing.
This article is really important. He is not making an economic argument about the value of social distancing. What's not being said often enough, because it's pretty scary to hear, is that no matter how much we lower the curve, everyone will be infected with COVID-19. Angela Merkel stated it very clearly last week, and this is why policy makers come to Jesus so quickly when experts and eye witnesses explain to them what is going on in China and Italy. Normal flu has some resistance in the population, but this novel coronavirus does not, and so, to put it very plainly, without emergency medical intervention 3% of the population will die. Curve flattening alone doesn't change that in the slightest. Flattening the curve, as the author of this article says, buys critical time right now, and we need to use it to increase targeted emergency medical capacity right now.
I don't even understand how you can generate this comment. Have you been watching developments around the world at all? China completely shut down, followed by so many countries I can't even keep up at this point. I'm living in a country (not China) where the mega metropolis capital city has been forcefully quarantined. How do you look at all this and think "the economy!" The world is way past that point. This is bigger than the economy, or maybe you know something that the rest of the world doesn't.

In other words, the world economy is beyond screwed. That's already in the rear view mirror. We're going all in on stopping the spread.
No, it is not.

It is too late for stopping it and you can barely delay it either.

You delay a few days or maybe 1-2 weeks if stringent but it won't be as effective when you desperately need it to be. Likely more will die if you start too early.
I'm pretty confused by the European government's responses. While the UK is the most brazen, all others are essentially also saying that there's no other way other than letting a non-negligible percentage of the population die, and that the best they can do is try to ensure that everyone who needs an ICU gets one. And all the while incurring a massive economic cost. Italy, France, Switzerland and Austria have effectively halted most of the economic activity, initially for 2 weeks to a month, but it's likely that it's either going to be longer, or that they'll have to repeat the process. That's 100s of billions of dollars gone just there, not counting for the long-term impact and all the social problems that'll follow. I'm puzzled that the idle workforce and the lost money isn't diverted to urgent and massive scaling of testing and protection equipment.

Of course, all it takes is a UK to screw everyone over by not playing along and providing a population pool for the virus to mutate. And then a ton of poor countries who probably can't do anything even if they wanted, where it's just starting.
LinkedIn opened courses that focus on being productive while working from home
Article misses the angle that we could flatten the curve and get herd immunity via a vaccine.
people dying everywhere (which, with a hopeful 2% letality is still very likely) will also heavily disturb the peace as well as the economy. As long as we are not sure about basic things like that, I'm quite for a lockdown, because a 7% letality is still not off the table (with happy things like reinfection) - and this is basically about double the loss of life of WW2 (which at least had a clear winner, being able to play out its game).

So: how are you sure that the parameters of the pandemic are something, the system can handle? Is there any precedent for that? What reason is there, that our society (that's the people, making up this system) can't overcome this crisis with something different?
Interesting! It still hasn't been fixed.
In crashes all the vulnerabilities tend to collapse at once like a house of cards, and in a sense we have learned things one crash at a time. When gold was the primary form of money, there were many crashes because of lack of control over money supply. Likewise with fiat, all the crashes from indebted governments trying to print their way out and inducing hyperinflation.

In the 1929 crash there was a run on the banks because there was no confidence in their survival. The world going to a wartime economy and increasing public spending reinvigorated things but it eventually caused high inflation in the US by the 1960's - one of those factors in the country's "1970 turning" in many policies. Fear of the balance sheet getting out of control again created the strategy of huge bailouts in the latter part of the 20th century, but a downside of doing it just through lending is the "crowding out" of those actors who aren't given bailouts - which in prior recent crashes were generally individual workers, homeowners and retail investors who just took it on the chin and were told to lower their expectations.

This time is different. The attention is on individuals and their problems, and I'm seeing an uptick in discussion of UBI and benefits beyond the existing trend. There isn't faith in this crisis being solved through the existing toolset.
Of those, only the third is likely. There is some hope still that the transmission rate will drop over the summer. But realistically, the post-quarantine phase will be defined by careful monitoring, a bunch of still-extant rules, and the occasional surprise outbreak. And this will go on until either we all get it or until we all get a vaccine.
How much would mandatory use of mask reduce R0/virus spread? I see in all Asian countries everybody with a mask by default and am wondering what % of spread reduction could be attributed to that factor alone. Are there any data on this?
If U.K. goes it alone they will be out of sync with the rest of the world in terms of travel restrictions. No one will be going in or out of U.K. until everywhere else has caught up to their herd immunity or we have a vaccine. Not sure how this lack of travel affects their economy.
It's pretty clear that the economic impact of this is much bigger that the 2008 GFC, than 9/11 and the 1987 stock market crash. 2008 and 1987 were financial/market crises which caused issues elsewhere.

9/11 shutdown the US economy for a couple of days.

This is shutting down production for weeks and global demand for many thing for months. It's completely unprecedented that I can think of.
Ummm, no...that is, unless your intent is to blindly explore the catastrophic failure modes associated with dielectric breakdown.
It probably did prick a bubble. But all the economic recovery measures for the pandemic may, ironically, push further out the point at which the systemic issues break the market and force resolution. Especially in the U.S., economic aid invariably ends up contributing far more to corporate balance sheets than it does citizens' wallets. I mean, what was the first response of the GOP to prospective economic issues? Cut taxes, including payroll taxes, which could have dealt a death blow to Social Security and Medicare considering how many Republicans are itching to get rid of those programs entirely.

Once COVID-19 passes I would expect more of the same. For reasons that aren't entirely understood, inflationary effects of monetary stimulus are highly attenuated, at least for the average consumer, although they clearly contribute to the ever increasing wealth of top earners, not to mention financial assets. Who knows how long we can keep going down this road.
Not quite, the U.S. began adopting measures almost immediately [0].

0: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/tra...
the 'soon' was always weeks from last Friday but miraculously happened today. i say somebody added uprising probability to the model.
Romney would not be allowed to hold both offices at once. He would have to step down as Senator to be Speaker of the House.
Yeah, the pragmatic mindset might as well calculate the savings on pensions from deceased elderly. I personally find this unacceptable. More should have been done earlier and it didn’t happen. We’ll see how this affects the next elections though..