skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
There's not even any indication that this is seasonal. It's spreading pretty well in Australia/India which are extremely hot right now. It will probably continue to spread in Europe/NA all throughout summer.

Our state and many others have closed schools, made all restaurants take-out/delivery only, barred gatherings of > 10 people, etc. I don't know how the small businesses are going to survive more than a couple weeks of this.
>"Hey, we're going to let this run its course, take our lumps now, and try to get back to business as usual ASAP." I could be wrong, and maybe this is a genius application of heartless logic

Related, if we take the numbers out of China at face value: A tiny tiny fraction of the population has been infected (acquired immunity). So what now? Lock everything down until a vaccine is discovered?
“Flatten the curve” is to increase compliance by making accomplishing something seem more realistic, even at an individual level.
They can also become much more deadly. The first pass of the 1918 pandemic was not nearly so bad as the second, which slaughtered millions of people in their 20s and 30s.
This is actually pretty good, do you plan to support wayland ?
Government debt does not work like personal debt. At all.

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/01/14/why-public-...
Much better than google owning it
The logic of the UK position is well articulated in this very HN-friendly article by a UK epidemiologist unaffiliated with the govt scientific advice team [complete with graphs, the Python code of his illustratory models and an appropriate caveat about the magnitude of the uncertainties of the assumptions the scientific advisory team's models will have made]

https://personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/thomas.house/bl...

nb the UK has since issued stronger isolation guidelines and downplayed herd immunity in the media. Longer paper about their current model https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
what you're saying is extremely surprising. I'd love to have more infos on the situation in japan. Last time i read something about it, it seemed the japanese gvt wasn't very open on what they were doing.
Thank you. I felt a little dark when I knew things were going to end badly, but surprisingly I don't feel bad now that things are over. I feel slightly excited and interested in what the next opportunity might be, but as I said originally, I feel creatively burnt out and don't seem to have the critical analysis needed right now to figure out what to do next.

I hope things are working out for you now (mental health wise).

Thanks!
> I believe that nobody really expects to meet the gap between actual capacity and "required" capacity

Well, that's exactly my problem - I don't really know what kind of gap to expect. It is all very qualitative at this point but scenarios (and thus the best course of action) are wildly different depending on how exactly do the relevant quantities compare to each other. Of course "we don't know yet" is a perfectly valid answer but then it must be clearly stated in the article that this is just a speculation describing a plausible scenario.
Several of those bindings that I have tried leave a lot to be desired, especially since Qt widgets often encourage C++ class inheritance.
Keeper Security is the best password manager. It allows me to keep all my passwords and codes safe.
I agree that the masses use this, but I'm not sure that you can compare email to WhatsApp, maybe a fair comparison would be _instant_ messengers.

Also open source?, I doubt it.
I don't know who you are wanting to be "fair" to here. The stronger evidence seems to be on the side immunity.
$1 would be nice. Some company in Japan is selling kits $250 for a 10 test kit

https://monoist.atmarkit.co.jp/mn/articles/2003/13/news055.h...

Google Translate Translation

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...
> Rome has 4 planned covid hospitals as of now.

Unfortunately not where it matters most, that is in Lombardia (where I live, and the hardest-hit of all regions). In fact the regional government took the matter into its own hands to attempt to convert a number of buildings in an old exposition area (not the 2015 expo area, FTR) into places to treat patients (there are still many "ifs" to see whether this will get done or not, though).
This is the attitude that has me worried. It's CYA with a sprinkle of panic.
I tried to find the source but it looks like it was more speculation in a Reddit post. Sorry for the wrong info. Perhaps Amazon is just being overloaded.
For what it’s worth, “Steve and myself are going to the pub” is flatly incorrect. Good rule of thumb is that if it you rewrite the sentence with just the pronoun and it sounds wrong, it’s wrong. “Myself is going to the pub” and throwing poor Steve in there doesn’t change that.
There have been a couple of population studies to try to measure asymptomatic infections. It appears that about 50%+ of people are symptomatic, so unfortunately significant percentages of people are going to need hospitalization.

This study shows the number of symptomatic patients broken out by age group on the Diamond Princess which was a very well-studied population.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v...
Actually, the Speaker of the House can be anyone the House chooses.
A little off topic, but I found this sentence to be incredibly odd - "by we I mean the generation who were adults in World War II"

So all the people who are 90+ years old?
I think a nicer interpretation is: "I'm sorry about my bright lights, but I don't accidentally have my high beams on, thank you."
> In this case, on the other hand, the primary mechanism is "people can't work/aren't going out and buying things". That's absolutely going to "go back to the way things were", in some sense. It's just a question of how long it will take, and how much damage will be dealt in the meantime. But it feels very different from those other ones, which could be good or bad.

This to me is more akin to a natural disaster which wipes out large amounts of our economic infrastructure in the form of consumer spending. How do people and businesses bridge the gap? Businesses are already over-leveraged due to incredibly cheap debt. Some have good balance sheets and will survive, but many many will not. Most small businesses cannot survive 2 months without being in business, let alone 6. The solution can't be for them to take out loans which they'll never be able to pay off.

The thought that this is just an acute problem that will go away is wishful thinking. The effects will be further and wider than many of us can imagine right now.
The source for that is a random tweet that contained a lot of misinformation and false statement. No Italian friend working in the medical sector was able to confirm that it even makes any sense, and there are no official sources for that
The bank bailout lent money out at sweetheart, below-market rates.

So, no, I was not happy with it. The government should have only stepped in to deal with a lack of liquidity, by providing appropriately priced loans - not to give out discounts.
I agree, it's not the most user-friendly of business models. Do you know how to make a more user-friendly business model profitable enough to appeal to investors?

This is not a rhetorical question. If I knew a way to make a more user-friendly service profitable enough to have a reasonable shot of gigadollar return on investment (which is what it takes to be interesting to venture capitalists), I might very well go ahead and put together a YC application, but right now, I don't know a way to do that. Do you?
What if you need to see your family, or help out a friend? Or vice versa? Or go pick up medication? This comment strikes me as pretty insensitive.

Public transit, walk, bike, or... rent a car.
> - and universal mask use -

It's really unfortunate that the general population of the US has zero cultural familiarity with using masks to prevent the spread of disease. This really seems like the time to do everything possible in that regard, but we don't have the supplies.

In normal times, surgical masks are cheap. If we had the supply, we should be handing them out by the dozen to households in infected areas, at airports, etc.
SoftBank Owned Patent Troll Sues to Block Covid Testing, Using Theranos Patents
It seems like the countries that are doing the best are Taiwan, Singapore, and HK.

https://time.com/5802293/coronavirus-covid19-singapore-hong-...

Taiwan can produce 10M masks per day in country of 23M

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/taiwan-sets-world-fight-corona...
> The crop of shutdowns over the weekend were billed as 2-3 weeks.. Err, what?

Exactly. People seem to be mistaking the incubation period (~two weeks) for the length of time the pandemic will last (months at minimum).

It's impossible to have a perfect quarantine, so if we were to all go back to normal after a month, the pandemic growth curve will pick up where it left off. Exiting the lockdown will need to be done super carefully to avoid this outcome.

As far as I can tell, this is probably going to be the new normal until we have a vaccine.
Are all bear markets the same? If there's a clear signal when to start buying why isn't everyone doing it?

To me technical analysis of the stock market is the modern equivalent of a shaman predicting next year's harvest. It sounds very convincing but there's little scientific evidence that it can predict anything accurately.
AFAIK they are doing very little testing in Japan, so there is no problem that can be reported, the USA and UK as far as we can tell were copying that until the UK got called out on it after that PM press conference and the states got testing approved independently of the CDC test.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/10/Japanese-...

This has an infographic on testing - Japan was next to last (on the chart at least) per person testing for industrialized countries as of March 4.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/co...
This is missing a couple things:

1) Cells should have random demographics such as male/female and age, and a virus could respond differently to them

2) The virus should have some capability for mutation as it spreads. (probability of changing variables from the initial configuration by some percent)
UK has just made what apparently is a 180, U-turn, or however you want to call it and started implementing more serious containment measures.
Or more, since this amount of people die only when sufficient care is available. If you interpret the "requires hospitalization" percentage as "will die without hospitalization" (which I'm not 100 % sure is true), as many as 15 or 20 % people can die.
Isn’t part of reducing cases now so we have time to get on a war footing for those things?

At least I hope to god that’s what they’re thinking.
Do you actually believe there is a ventilator factory somewhere that has been shutdown?
Oklahoma governor was in a crowded restaurant with his family just two days ago telling everyone else to do the same.
Given that so many people are now staying home, working from home etc, I can't see how we can't slow the virus. Right now, I assume the people coming forward are those that have been possibly exposed a week ago before all the lock downs. I have hopes that this thing is thwarted quick, when the President (with info from the CDC) said this could last into July, I genuinely became worried about the state of the world after this. The state of the economy, I can't even say I'd have a job if it lasted that long.
I wonder why in China and Korea, in counties most experienced in current situation, everyone is required to use them.
A Professor of Disasters and Health on Covid-19
About one third of small businesses were dead and buried by midnight Sunday.
This can be a positive depending on your perspective.
Good advice, but the IV on most puts makes them incredibly expensive right now. I prefer shorting the 3x long etfs.
uk announced social distancing and non mandatory isolation
It is very likely that this will become an ongoing thing where we have to get shots every year.
Likely the image was changed on Wikipedia and by pure chance Google was spidering the page during the time the altered image was active. If so, going through the image and page history on Wikipedia should point to when it happened.
And greenland as I recall? But yeah - thikn the trick was low mortality so they took too long to respond
Terrible ergonomics.

The probability that somebody replies with a quote of the entire unencrypted thread when attempting to use PGP approaches 1 for long email chains. Encrypted email also leaks not just metadata but data since you can't encrypt subject headers.
Indeed. The psychology of the dying people's relatives also factors into the economy. I'm sure some actuary somewhere has put a number on it.
Scientists have discovered the origins of the building blocks of life
I'm not sure why you're downvoted. That is exactly the right approach. Implement serious social distancing measures to reduce R0 below 1, get local outbreak under control, and then work on keeping it contained, increasing measures when necessary. Once it's more established which countries are effectively controlling the virus, travel could be more open with those countries, and more restricted with those that still have active outbreaks. (Which doesn't necessarily mean cutting off completely, but perhaps only essential travel and cargo, or unrestricted but 14 day isolation on arrival.)
All the health experts I’ve heard from (and two of my immediate family members work at hospitals) have said that surgical masks do not prevent catching infections. You breathe by suction. Your diaphragm create a pressure difference by increasing the volume of the thorax and the air rushes into your lungs to compensate.

The reason the N95 filters work is because when the air is sucked in, it must pass through the filter before entering your respiratory system, and that filter is designed to filter >95% of airborne particles (and often times even higher). For the surgical masks, the air just gets sucked in from the side, the path of least resistance. So the airborne particles would also just get sucked in from the side. The masks may cause changes in behavior that lead to lower infection probability (such as reminding you not to touch your face), but dipping your hand in glitter would be just as effective.
If you're ok with plugins https://neuraldsp.com/ and https://www.stltones.com/ are often recommended. I demoed them all and ended up buying Nolly and Plini (nice clean Fender sounds).
I thought it would be neat to have polarized windscreens, polarized in the opposite sense to the lights. The majority of the direct light would get cut out, cutting down dazzle enormously. I figured light reflected off of stuff would scramble the polarization so you could see the reflected light OK.

I get that it's totally impractical to roll out because of the huge number of existing vehicles that would need modification, but it's a fun thought. I don't really know enough about polarization to know if it'd even work?
Pullum made an excellent series of videos based on this paper.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLNRhI4Cc_QmsihIjUtqro...

It’s also worth pointing out that the Mary Dash link makes the error that many “authorities” on writing make by using this as an example of why passives are bad:

> My car was driven to work by me.

In fact, as Pullum explains, this is simply ungrammatical. No native speaker would ever say it because there is an information structuring constraint on passive clauses that makes this sentence ungrammatical.
The UK government is revising its plan. A new simulation estimates that if we allow enough transmission to achieve herd immunity, it would cost about 260,000 lives. That’s not acceptable and would massively overwhelm health services. So it looks like we’re going to go for a strict lockdown strategy, but the problem with that is without a vaccine there’s no way out. If you relax the lockdown, you just get another outbreak. The best you can do is dynamic lockdowns per city or region.
A cynical, calculating strip mall landlord might think they're more likely to get a government cash handout (or a cash handout to their tenants who then hand it to them, which is effectively the same thing) if they prove their tenants will go bankrupt without it.
Will that happen for housing? The businesses will lose all their workers during that time, and everyone will go work in an amazon warehouse.
It's as though you think everyone is rational. If they are they should be selling, but no, they are buying.
We might get a lot, but it likely won’t be enough.

Many land owners would already prefer to leave their buildings empty for years over even considering negotiating on rent. I doubt anything can change their minds.
The virus isn’t serious enough to warrant or motivate total quarantine so a ton of people are going to get it. Then we’ll have collective immunity and things will go back to normal. 3 to 6 months from now.
Citations? That was precisely the doctor's objection - no citations, no facts, no data.
These approval processes are there for a reason though. If you are going to inject some pathogen to millions of people, you better be sure that it has no strong, even long term, undesirable effect.
Research group at the Biozentrum, University of Basel, Switzerland has updated their COVID19-scenario explorer. https://neherlab.org/covid19/

If you run their model for UK with weak mitigation, Moderate/North epidemiology, you get 390,000 total deaths.
Ciddi Arkadaşlık Ilanları
You can't get one. Not just won't, can't. What's the worldwide population of people who got Corona more than four months ago?
Home Decor Gadgets That Combine Functionality and Beauty
Forecasting that the market will drop 60% has a way of making that an expectation if enough people believe it, and then it happens, and the prediction comes true.
I would prefer not having to use VC money to fund such an endeavour. This model needs to stop, maybe a change to a bootstrapped model + pay to use is the way to go.
Because China using it on 1000 people shouldn’t be evidence enough for widespread use yet. They’re highly motivated to make this go away seeing as they’re largely blamed for its genesis. We can’t forget that they have a very different view on humane treatment of people than what’s currently accepted in the west (i.e. the Chinese Uighur concentration camps that currently exist.)
Uk tactic looks very sensible to me. They will institute a lockdown long before that. But they recognize a lockdown for a prolonged time is very challenging in itself and there aren't many good reasons to be doing it too early.
Exactly, let’s not focus on premature optimization. Let’s ensure our hospitals don’t get overwhelmed these next few months.

After that, the virus may go away on its own, or it might mutate into a weaker form. Or we might have treatments on the way.
Japan has strange numbers. The infection grows steadily at a rate of 10% per day, compared to 20% in most other countries. It doesn’t seem to slow down however.
Bill Gates: The next outbreak? We’re not ready (2015 TED Talk)
The translated subtitles seem reasonable. I had to go in and switch it to translating to English.
that article is pure gold, if it was the onion i wouldn't be able to tell.

> "We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that," professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night.

i can multiply numbers fifteen times in a row and come to that conclusion. alternatively, i can watch italian tv. did these people never looked up from their models to confront them with actual reality?
I think that approach is exactly why contact tracing didn't work. A virus that spreads as contagiously and stealthily as this one means that contract tracing alone is not able to achieve Re<1. Eventually (in the case of Washington state, apparently with the first known case?) someone escapes your net and then exponential growth does its magic, because you aren't decreasing Re for anyone not already in your contact graph. (CDC refused to test anyone without a clearly documented link to Wuhan)

A working version of this that actually affects the asymptotics rather than just buying you a few weeks at best has to be able to identify new case clusters while they are small, and then find and isolate a significant fraction of the cases (working backward as well as forward). Table stakes for this is the ability to test everyone with flulike symptoms who tests negative for flu (and flu tests have horrible sensitivity, so that is a lot of people). As I see it from my comfortable armchair, CDC should have made sure long before the epidemic that the RT-PCR capacity to do that existed (doing other work at private and public labs) and could be recruited and online to do this within a few days of the virus being sequenced. You also would need everyone to at least moderately change their behavior because I don't think this would be enough by itself. Simple things like not going to work sick or tolerating co-workers or employees who do seem like feasible changes with both cultural and legal levers to pull that could be very low cost and contribute significantly to Re reduction.

More speculatively, you might be able to do even better using pooled PCR tests to look for RNA in large groups, giving you a chance to spot even asymptomatic cases. Is there viral rna in sewer water or garbage? PCR amplifies exponentially, it should be able to cope with a fair amount of dilution.
That's still happening at a massive scale.

I think it's fair to say that advising social distancing is the norm. But actually doing it very much isn't yet.
I read some articles that did the math on that, but I can't easily find them now. IIRC it was an order of magnitude difference - i.e. flattening the curve enough to meet capacity would require to stretch it out to something 10 years (certainly an unreasonable goal), so flattening it out over a single year would be something like 10 times over the current capacity. It's hard to estimate how much reasonable actions can increase capacity - 20%? 50%? 100%? But nowhere close to 10x increase.
> My sense is that the UK will probably fold and institute a lockdown

They (we) have already shifted towards a lockdown (voluntary for now, but people have been told to avoid office, pubs and travelling[0]) due to the model used being updated with the data from Italy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51917562
Fascinating!

"The hardware side of an SDR is a pair of incredibly fast analog to digital converters, capable of tens of millions of samples per second. If you can sample at 40 million pairs of samples per second, you've sampled every radio signal in 20 megahertz of bandwidth"

Yes, that makes a lot of sense!

Never thought about that until now; you (and the other posters who have posted virtually the same thought/thing) have expanded my mind as to what I previously thought possible (but then, I'm a software guy who dabbles in electronics -- not the other way around)...

But anyway, thank you! (and the other posters too!)
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> Staying active is probably good for your immune system. At least that's how I'm going to rationalize it :)

If we're facing a serious medical crisis, please don't rationalize any potentially risky behavior. Use your best dispassionate judgement instead.
They have the worst and least accessible healthcare system in the western world.

The only reason those numbers aren't higher is because they're testing less people per population then Vietnam.
Good news. Is there any plan to improve F# tooling on these goals?
Yeah, if there were no other viable options, I'd try it. But I'm not the government or a doctor... what do I know.