skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Not clear why the losses should follow lognormal distribution rather than some less pleasant to work with distribution like Cauchy.

Also not clear why loss frequency is assumed to be independent from loss magnitude.

Instead of "percent chance that the loss will exceed X" (VaR), expected shortfall would be more useful.
The correct formula isn't what your lives are worth in absolute terms, though. It must be risk-adjusted. Specifically, one must calculate what lives are worth, multiplied by the probability of the hypothetical victim's vs. the current possessor's death due to not having a mask.

But again, this isn't so much an economic question as much as it is a moral one.
These things are not consumer purchase. These sort of event are paid well in advance and blind by legal contracts and documented terms. From initial down payment to finalising should normally be out of the charge back period. This is to protect both parties, such as companies pulling out from last min with no final payment and event organisers have to tried and sell vendor in the last min.
I completely understand you. Last summer I was learning GNUstep development on FreeBSD, and I decided to fire up an instance of Mac OS X Tiger running inside of QEMU on my Mac Pro to compile my code using XCode to see if it worked there. I was blown away by how polished Tiger is, even though it had been 14 years since Tiger was released. While for web browsing and security reasons I wouldn't use Tiger as my daily driver today, I found myself more impressed with Tiger than with any non-Mac desktop environment.

I admit, I have a soft spot for the classic Mac OS, stability issues aside (though I think projects like A/UX and Rhapsody were interesting examples of bringing the classic Mac UI to Unix). But Mac OS X through Snow Leopard was the pinnacle of the Unix desktop. Not only was it beautiful to look at, but it was a joy to use, and it ran on some of the best consumer computer hardware ever made. I still use macOS, but Apple as of lately doesn't spark joy for me anymore; it's just the best option out there.
This is an account from one of the doctors in Italy. https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753...

Read the whole thing, but this passage in particular is just chilling.

"5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed."
If your parents own an emerald mine, like Elon’s, yes, college is for fun.
As recovery approaches full employment ... soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been banished [and] debts can be taken on ... But in truth neither the boom, nor the debt deflation ... and certainly not a recovery can go on forever.

Hyman Minsky

(From the wikipedia article posted last week "Minsky Moment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment"
Can you explain how you came to the first conclusion wrt shipping container nuclear reactors?

Having studied light bulb nuclear reactors and a few legacy designs, I can't imagine a nuclear reactor cooling system pump fitting into a single 40ft container, let alone the "important" parts like the containment chamber.

Based on this article, they're talking about forward deployments to permanent military bases. That implies that they have a ton of infrastructure already in place to support a shipping container reactor.
What does it mean for a market to have inefficiencies?
This is some outright spooky tech. I think it is an overkill for something that could be implemented with a cart with RFID or barcode readers (or some similar tech), or even cameras but only on carts. It kind of reminds me of slapping IoT on Ts that need no Is and only adds security implications to them, only here it is about privacy. Or of any other businesses that slap high-tech onto stuff where people are content with much more basic solutions, in lieu of solving difficult problems.
And ammo and soap.
Well, there are (small) inefficiencies for everyone to exploit. For example, a stock is mispriced and you expect it to return an additional 1% when the mispricing disappears. The difference between an institutional investor and a retail investor is that the institutional investor can invest $100 million in the stock and make $1 million of profit, while a retail investor with $100,000 will make only $1,000. As a result, institutional investors can afford to spend a lot more money on research, hardware, data, etc. It's very hard to compete with that as a retail investor.
Why Honeywell can't claim “the world's most powerful quantum computer”
I wouldn’t count publicly shaming them as “zero coercion” and by definition authoritarian is “favoring or enforcing strict obedience to authority at the expense of personal freedom”. Even though I do agree that everyone should wash their hands, this is not the way to do it.
fediverse.network contains fairly exhaustive lists of open registration instances for both pleroma and mastodon
Do you find that it's more power efficient to run a custom built machine like that? I would think that using a laptop as your daily driver would stretch your battery bank further, since it's designed from the ground up for battery power. I lived off solar power for a while, and that was my thinking. I never did the math to verify it though.
You're incorrect. C++ support was limited but GPU-useful things like templates were from early versions. You can check for yourself here (ie. check for texture fetch functions signatures)

https://arcb.csc.ncsu.edu/~mueller/cluster/nvidia/2.0/Progra...
> then it's completely orthogonal to the issue of who should be supplied with the masks.

it's really not. The general population has already tuned out when you go into a ten paragraph long debate about the masks.

The question is what 140 character message you give to people that induces the correct behaviour and in this case it's telling people bluntly that those masks don't help so people stop hoarding them. And they honestly don't help because most people don't know how to wear them or how often to change them anyway, so it's basically a meaningless discussion.
indeed when i think back to how the self driving car revolutionized.. oh wait what year is it?
Does that mean they're just triaging them and letting them die?
Actually it does, and in a big way.

Let me give a simple example using some round numbers just to show the concept. Plug and play any numbers you want to see how the outcome changes...

Let’s say you have a million dollars in March of 2000, you just retired, and you need to pull out $100,000 to live on. So, in April, you take out $100,000 and now you have $900,000. So you ended up taking out 10% of your principal.

However, the market is falling, and will drop 10% over the next year. So you now have $810,000, and you take out this year’s $100,000 which leaves you with $710,000. Effectively, you took out over 12% of your principal.

2002 is no better, and the market falls a further 13%, and is now down to $618,000. You take out $100,000 for this year’s expenses, leaving you with $518,000.

The next year is even worse in the market, and your nest egg falls 23%, which means you now only have $399,000 left. You still take out your $100,000 and are left with only $299,000.

Thankfully, the next year the market rises 26%. Hallelujah, your nest egg grew to $376,000. However, you still need to take out your $100,000, leaving you with only $276,000. You think your luck has turned around...

The next year the market rises, but only 9%, so your nest egg grows, but only to $301,000. You take out your $100,000, leaving you with only $201,000. Hmmmmm...

The next year the market rises again, but barely - only 3%, so your nest egg is now $207,000. You take out your $100,000 again, and only have $107,000 left. Uhhhh...

Thankfully, the market moves up 14%, and your $107,000 grows to $122,000. You take out your $100,000, leaving you with only $22,000 left.

Finally, in the last year, the market rises 4%, so your nest egg grows to $23,000. You withdraw all of it, and are now broke.

This effect is based on real numbers (rounded) from [0], and represent the S&P 500 market returns starting in the year 2000 (aka, the dot com bust). What happened to this poor retiree is called “sequence of returns”, and it is something that any good financial planner uses to test the durability of his or her projections.

[0] - https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-re...
I think one of the important things I've learned since leaving higher education is that over the past ~50yrs a deep culture of gatekeeping and credentialism has developed which does far more harm than good. People are capable of thinking through problems themselves and are often able to take in high level parameters about a concept and come to a conclusion without a degree or some other signal that they are an "expert".

This type of gatekeeping thinking essentially asserts the world as fixed. It asserts a world in which all possible domains of knowledge are known and only those with some set of credentials in that domain are allowed to speak to that domain. This both limits the possible benefits of multi-disciplinary pursuits but also asserts that there are no and can be no new domains of knowledge. It's very static thinking.
Yes, but no one claims that the market is strong form efficient. The question is rather whether the U.S. stock and bond markets are weak form (prices include all past trading data) or semi-strong form efficient (prices include all publicly available information).
The CCP claims new cases are almost eliminated outside of Wuhan city limits; that'd be a hard thing to fake if it were really churning along at peak strength.
What Did You Expect? Reviewing Moondust: In Search of the Men Who Fell to Earth
I suspect Amazon would have better success with me (i.e. better than 0%) if they simply showed me a random ad.
If you reinvested your dividends you'd be up 25% without taking into account inflation, or down a total of 1.5% if you took into account inflation. Not ideal, but not much different than when you started.

I personally buy an all-world tracker, the Nikkei is an outlier. There could be issues that affect the global economy long term, but if that were the case, I'd have other things to worry about in addition to my investments.
> I also tried the more corporate Lenscrafters

LensCrafter's is owned by Luxottica, which becomes apparent when you see how/what they try to push you into.
Show HN: Crescendo – macOS App to view real time event data
I say 6pm but write 18:00. I imagine things like that can very easily lead to awkward translations.

I've found countries (Slovakia springs to mind) that would say "a quarter of 8" for 7:15 (think "7 hours and a quarter of the eighth hour") and "half 8" for 7:30. Time can translate in rather interesting ways.
I'm not a Python programmer, but I was also looking in to this and Python always seemed to me like the biggest bang for your buck. It's used in so many different fields, is simple to get started with, and there are plenty of Python jobs. At least there is here in Australia (not sure where you live).
“Robinhood - like AOL but for money”

Ugh. This is a tough issue to design for, and is expensive to run as well.
A comparison of text rendering on different systems
This is the annoying thing about this software niche. I have zero information on Shakti. Their website just says some buzzwords and has a contact link. You can download it as an anaconda package or something, but I don't understand the license.
I haven't done any measurements.

What I will say is that the machine I used to use in the van lost its video output (the perils of onboard graphics), and I've found it impossible to source a reasonable replacement mobo. As a result, I've switched back to using a laptop (lenovo Y700) in the van.

What I notice as a potential improvement is that it effectively lets me store an extra X hours of power for computing, because I'm adding the laptop battery to the overall storage. Compared to my "house batteries", the laptop batteries are of course very small. But getting (say) 3 hours of work time stored up in the laptop does seem like a plus, especially on cloudier days.
Please walk us through how a PKI would help against phishing emails?
Did you exclude or include dividends in that assessment?
Initially OpenCL and CUDA were competitors. You had choice of C (OpenCL) and limited support of C++ (CUDA). C++ especially in HPC context is way easier (templates!) as properly organized C++ codebase doesn't have problem with:

"Optimizations that one applies on different hardware make code look completely different."

Unless you got C program where this statement is true.
i duno where you live but at my local pharmacy there used to be 3 cashiers, now there are none (just 2 kiosks). a person is around but they seem to usually be doing something other than checking people out (just tending to the machines when there is, for example, an elderly lady using coins)

the first gen kiosks were pretty bad (slow, overly sensitive, no way to go back if you click the wrong thing, etc) but the current ones are solving those issues and have all but eliminated lines in my experience
It does sadden me that folks will not be able to engage with the 2020 immersive brand experience that is better known as SXSW ( curated by KiaPepKraftFargoCo Inc LLC Esquire )

I mean, this year's experience included activities like $20 taco, guess the gluten allergy, and name-that-e-scooter-startup.

Not to worry!! 95% of all SXSW badges where purchased by VC backed social media managers where no one will actually give 2 shakes of a lambs tail when SXSW doesn't issue a refund. Their experience will be turned into a long format medium article outlining the companies personal struggle of grieving and loss caused by #COVID19.
Can you not insure yourself, or insure yourself against someone else?
I would learn Python and linux/ bash scripting and then move into some cloud certs.
I'm just waiting for electric vehicles and their technology to invade the van and RV market.

It would be really cool to have a solar/battery powered vehicle you can power from DC. A bus-sized RV could easily generate 5kw from current solar panels just on it's roof.

Current RVs do have both 110v AC and 12v DC systems, but they're not easily integrated.
12v is too low to power bigger stuff like air conditioners (1500 watts = 125 amp wiring!) and converting DC to AC requires expensive inverters.

A really cool solution would be high-voltage DC powering DC appliances directly and stepping down to clean lower voltage DC close to where it's needed.
Can we not extrapolate on one off the cuff sentence Elon made.

He's not fact checked by god like Jesus was.

He can make awkward remarks that don't express what he's trying to say well. He is human.

He didn't say they were just for fun either. We can't even get his one sentence right.
No problem and I like you're thinking, but honestly just want a free and open source APL or K language that is part of a lightweight download (a few MB) that can also create zero install executables that bundle the interpreter. There are a lot of toy projects out there, but nothing really close to what I want. I'd build it myself if I had the time and was significantly more talented :).
Tool support would ideally both of those problems easier. But good estimating is in itself fundamentally a "system 2" activity.
Actually, the behaviour of the Mastodon author promising a "safe space" in his paid, targeted advertising campaigns without any real plan for data security is the unethical behaviour. If you don't like that people can scrape the fediverse, fix the damn security.
10% is not really a safe withdrawal rate though.
Probabilities. Any new disease is more likely to appear in the biggest population slice. The biggest population slice is China with (approx.) twenty percent of the world's population.
I mean, you're not wrong, but at the same time whether you call it "imagining" or "coming up with ideas", if done well the results of said process are valuable.

Ie. Good ideas are valuable
I don't see how regulating power draw from the wall could work for anything other than idle, because PCs very widely in power requirements and performance. Regulating efficiency makes more sense because it doesn't automatically give low-end machines a pass or ban high-end machines.
May I suggest a rephrasing for that?

Execution can bring profit. Ideas might not.

History is full of examples of visionaries coming up with ideas that have inspired and fueled others--in some cases whole industries have been founded on these ideas. For instance, Doug Engelbart gave the "Mother of All Demos" in 1968 [1]. It was a proof of concept, but the ideas he talked about were implemented by other companies--who profited from it.

It is unfortunate that we live in a world where ideas hold such little monetary value, but they're most certainly not worthless.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJDv-zdhzMY&t=4s
I remember reading about that too -- they even put batteries on the motherboard to serve as distributed UPS systems.
OAuth2 relies on HTTPS and thus the Web PKI to prevent anyone from MitMing either the login page itself or API requests made using the OAuth token.

SSH's trust-on-first-use system is only secure under the assumption that you "usually" aren't being MitMed; this ought to be improved. For the typical server administration use case, I'd prefer a design that doesn't involve PKI – like encoding a hash of the key into the SSH command – but domain validation based on Web PKI could still be better than nothing. (Perhaps using some subdomain owned by the hosting provider, as opposed to the public-facing domain(s) for the server.) Domain validation would also be ideal for use cases where you're connecting not to your own server but to some known entity's, such as SSHing to GitHub. As for SSH CAs... I've never heard of them before. :) Looking it up, I see that some organizations use them, but I'm not sure their design is a good fit for the kind of non-organization-internal use cases I'm thinking of.

As it stands today, Signal's public key system is largely security theater since nobody bothers to check authentication codes. Even when people do check them, you always have an excuse for changing your code out of the blue (got a new phone, had to reset my phone, etc.), which an attacker can take advantage of. The latter could be fixed by having a better way to transfer trust between devices, but Signal could still have a better story for initial authentication than trusting the phone system. Now, I don't think a traditional PKI would help. But I do like what Keybase is doing here, bootstrapping trust off of a collection of signed attestations on social media accounts. I'd argue this amounts to a PKI in its own right, one where social media providers (unknowingly) play the role of CAs.
Even if sugar itself causes the fast majority of the harm, I wouldn't be surprised if weaning oneself from the subjective experience of sweetness had some benefits. Have the studies on artificial sweeteners investigated it?
It’s really disheartening to see “schools” pushing people into the industry simply for money.

Yes, people make tons of career decisions based on money, but as an educational institution, “make £X” rather than the merits of the subject matter sucks.

It’s hard to find passionate and intelligent engineers already, and the dilution of the market has made interviewing harder as well.

Combined with the diversity initiatives, it has really handicapped hiring at my previous company.
The distribution comes from PERT 3-point estimates.

LEF and LEM are built of lower factors that roll up, which to my mind at least seem independent.

I'm not sure what you meant by expected shortfall.
Warby Parker is using really cheap frames though. (And Zenni is even worse). I stopped buying at both.

At Costco you can try and choose the frame directly and at the end walk away with higher quality glasses for the same price. Same with contact lenses - you can’t buy same brands of contact lenses cheaper even online.
Thank you, that is precisely what I was looking for.
I’m sure I could find references to distracted driving being deadly. 99.9% of the time that doesn’t kill either.

Influenza, at least when paired with pneumonia as the CDC does for reporting purposes, ranks in the top 10 killers.
Clickbait.

The author (editor?) is comparing 20 years of Debian to one release of Windows.

Not worth the waste of time to get everyone riled up about how bad this piece is.
Cf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_breach
IKEA’s shipping is not cheap though.
Last year a co-worker asked me if I could bring in some WD-40 for him. I asked what he was going to use it for; I always try to understand the problem someone is trying to solve.

He said his chair was squeaking, so I suggested lithium grease instead. Another coworker said "Are you one of those WD-40-isn't-a-lubricant guys?" I immediately replied "Absolutely".
Alas the all seeing eye of hacker news prevents many would be writers from publishing their findings. Even the theoretical chance of being criticized on hacker news is an oft cited reason that I’ve heard from many coworkers for not publishing interesting findings.
Tri-Flow. It's a lightweight oil + teflon, and doesn't evaporate like WD-40. It's marketed primarily to the cycling community, but I tend to use it where most people would use WD-40 (fixing squeaky hinges, loosening bolts, etc.)
force majeure clauses have been long held to be enforceable.
why not put the 12v power supply inside the monitor?
What I mean is that people are looking at self-driving as the next huge thing in automation that is "around the corner" for some definition of that time frame.

But these stores exist today and make traditional cashiers obsolete in no uncertain terms, potentially across the entire brick and mortar retail industry, and the response is "eh, there's already self checkout lanes".

It really feel to me like one of those moments where people shrug off the iphone when it first launches.
Oh, joy - the play "Silicon Valley Story" by Ted Nelson is so funny, weird, and self-consciously awkward in the best theatrical sense. Brilliant. I had never seen that before.

Saved the whole list in study/ted-nelson.txt. Thank you for gathering the links and sharing. (I'm a long-time fan of your work!)
If that happens, our power needs will raise accordingly.
I believe the erlang VM and the languages on top of it get all four conditions correct (not counting rebinding a variable to a new value, which you can do in some BEAM languages)
Just look at the testing for an example. There's absolutely no reason we couldn't be doing 10 times as many tests as we are; there's just nobody sitting at the top insisting that test capacity must be available and demanding that everyone do what they can to make it happen.
Share your story anonymously with the local media. They’d love that.
I only said it needed to be done fast, regardless of how much work. Of course it's not easy.

I'm surprised by all the misinterpretation in this thread. Seems like it reflects the laid-back West Coast/SV attitude that isn't a good fit for high pressure time-sensitive work in other industries.
We have not seen inflation. But we're seeing slow growth and negative interest rate. These are signs of diminishing returns. The market has lost its check-and-balance. Bond and lending were supposed to carry risk and skin in the game. Right now, overall growth is delivered through the Fed pumping money. There is no check-and-balance.

With this crisis, governments will likely pump more money. That'll distort the market further.
Shell indicates that days were half-hour shorter 70M years ago
IKEA has cheap mattresses and expensive mattresses, their expensive mattresses are quite good, but, you know, expensive.