skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
That analysis is true according to precedent. But we are experiencing an unprecedented event.

That said, eventually we will have a vaccine, anti-viral, or effective test&quarantine system; and the time to buy is BEFORE we have this under control.
Am I the only one still fuming about those two idiots who turned the engine off on the highway, and the hazard lights as well, with no shoulder to pull into? Then the idiots smugly claim they would never put anyone's life in danger. The author also gives them a wide pass. Why? This is such irresponsible behaviour. They couldn't demo it in some large unused lot?
I really don't think it will do either.
> That speaks to the lack of airlines in Canada if the third largest has 74 max people and 29 planes.

No, it speaks to the population of Canada... Porter still comes in at 18th largest in North America [1]

(It might also be because each of the two large carriers, Air Canada and WestJet, has a number of subsidiaries/wholly owned sub brands which would each be larger than Porter - eg Air Canada Rouge, WestJet Encore)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_airlines_in_No...
It's the first line of Tolstoy's novel, Anna Karenina.

(TIL there's something named the Anna Karenina principle after this very line [0]; it's used in statistics and ecology).

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Karenina_principle
But if a bunch of oil companies go out of business due to this, and then they cut production again, oil prices might rise sharply in the months ahead.
Jeez, this really isn't the best time to start the process of getting my first job post grad school.
"Up like a rocket, down like a feather." Oil companies, gas stations, etc. try to keep prices high for as long as they can, but the prices fall over time.
Some basic timing is not all that hard and can easily double your gains.

All-time highs after 10 year bull run + coronavirus pandemic is a good time to at least buy some puts or move into cash holdings.
I think this is all very overblown, and think within 5 years most people (obviously not those directly effected) won't even remember this happening. Similar to the Swine flu of 2009. Global growth will have a 1-2Q hiccup and then we'll likely have a rubber band recovery. But markets are in panic mode, and a lot of governments are showing their ineptitude, which is causing even more panic.
The thing with these suggestions is, they are all anecdotical from a single point in time and (market) space. I remember having read here somewhere, some time ago that maroccan or tunesian olive oil would be very good also, presumably because it isn't under the pressure of massive demand, so less incentive to fraud around it. Since decades this is a topic in
consumer testing magazines and public television, and i can't remember anytime they didn't find at least one third fradulent. There are documentations out there, where they travel to Italy, speak with the local farmers, dealers, police and local government to get to root of this problem, and all involved parties (at least on the record) see it as a large problem too. Yet it is persistent.
What you are referring to is “timing the market”, which is a strategy I suppose. Just not one a lot of investors consider valid.
> If less serious patients start to get tested more frequently, this number will change.

If everyone were tested, the denominator goes up by some constant factor. In Korea, people are already being tested at the first sign of cold symptoms.
Taxes on reallocating
CDC to cut by 80 percent efforts to prevent global disease outbreak (2018)
This is true, but even long-term investors effectively do a bit of market timing when they buy, sell or rebalance.

It's sometimes worth thinking about timing when there is a move you already want to make for better reasons.
The idea that you need to make 3x the income of rent is kinda asinine and unreasonable in the first place.
That sounds crazy to me. I looked at federal "market-based" insurance in 2017, and it was just shy of $2k per month for my family. It covered basically nothing and had a deductible of several thousand dollars.
This one updates earlier than the John Hopkins one and has more data (every country): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
It would be essentially a clinical trial, an open-label one.

There even have been several blinded trials, that were discontinued mid-way, because the drugs being tested were so effective.

To continue giving placebo and denying obvious cure would be unethical, and so the trial was stopped, placebo arm cancelled - and everyone got the actual medicine.
Here’s some actual analysis of rolling puts as a hedge: https://movement.capital/the-true-cost-of-hedging-sp-downsid...
I think you’re totally right in your assumption re: quality == healthy. However, I really doubt the vague assertion of this article that implies there’s a large population of pets being fed ‘high quality’ food.

There are many problems with modern industrial agriculture and mass produced food, but efficiency is not one of them. There is very little waste in these operations and those kidneys, livers, and marrow bones are already being put to good use, whether its for human consumption or animal.

I won’t pretend to know what proportion of pets are fed standard, ‘low quality’ food (ie. food made from corn, grain, and what most would consider as low quality meats and byproducts) but if I had to guess I would wager its >90%.
What I'm saying is don't bother with it; it will die on its own. You're the one bringing that discussion to life here; I only intended to comment on the CDC's response, I didn't intend to involve whatever the "Democrats" said. (Scare quotes because you can't coalesce them as one being)
Yet you somehow think charging content providers for using your computer when they give you free content isn’t a failed business model?
I disagree. One of two things are going to happen.

1. Significant quarantines in areas which have never seen them.

or

2. Mass infection and death.

Both will be remembered.
If we can avoid recessions, we should.

If we can create wealth without inflation, we should.
Maybe this should be called "lower-grade". A ribeye-steak is very high-grade protein, but it doesn't mean it's healthy (neither for humans nor pets btw).

For the record, I don't think that everyone is feeding steaks to their pets. This was just an example. But the article does point out the worrying trend of pet owners giving them high-end foods.
Very helpful insights. Thank you.
The market is (or at least has been, cue zombie apocalypse or Japan) almost always hitting or near all time highs.

Literally over 5% of days are all time highs. A full third of days are within 5% of the as-of-yet all time high.
Useful, Thanks
Buying at a low point is lucrative, sure, but how will you know when we're at a low point?

Should you have bought or sold Friday? Should you buy or sell this coming Monday? Answering these questions accurately is in fact hard.
> ironically it seems somewhat thanks to an Iraqi

Wow, what a story! Thanks for sharing.
This is very ignorant. Norway’s model was taken from Kuwait (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuwait_Investment_Authority)

It isn’t a coincidence that an Iraqi advised them. He saw the model in Kuwait.
There needs to be a discussion about how China is going to compensate the world for covid19. Given the thousands of lives lost and billions of lives disrupted, it seems unfair and unwise to let the source of the loss escape shouldering the cost.
There are three solutions:

1) Government makes more treasuries, sells them to the fed, and spends the money on infrastructure. That increases government debt, but improves our deflation situation and shrinks the loan bubble a bit. Preventing a deleveraging.

2) Government literally prints money, and gives it to people. That will rapidly increase inflation, which will increase corporate profits, shrinking the loan bubble a bit, preventing a deleveraging.

3) Don't do 1 or 2 because it basically redistributes wealth. Wait for rich people to spend their massive wealth on CPI-style goods and services, causing poor people to eventually have and spend more money. This takes aeons.

As far as I can tell, the powers that be have decided that #3 is the solution, and absolutely refuse to have a stable monetary system that involves giving anything to poor people.
A high-fat, ketogenic diet causes hepatic insulin resistance in mice (2010)
And once these expensive SW engineers get the pay cut, they'll start defaulting on their expensive mortgages. A year from now?

The software industry consists has the organizational layer - all these managers and vps - that relies on face to face communications, and the technical layer - all these engineers and devops - who can work remotely. The former will stay and retain their high pay. The latter will be outsourced at a fraction of the current price.
Consider that career expert epidemiologists are predicting billions infected and millions if not tens of millions of deaths worldwide, unless something dramatically changes to deflect the current course or some of their assumptions turn out to be substantially wrong. That’s more infected and 1–2 orders of magnitude more deaths than the 2009 swine flu.
This has got to be the best telegraphed recession of all times. I cannot believe that anyone having skin in the economic game didn't know that it is likely coming. Come on, don't be ridiculous.
peaking at the repo market and watching the inadequate pumps is concerning when the slow down really happens
People who opt out of having children -- the most meaningful decision in most people's lives -- because they are worried about carbon emissions should rethink the methods they use to make decisions.
Ok, so, you just want to punish people who, for whatever reason, haven't accumulated an emergency fund. I'm going to assume that you mean this in the most charitable sense of "their budgeting does not allow them to accumulate an emergency fund," because a bank balance is a point in time view and not always reflective of overall financial health. (Speaking of which, how would you determine that? Require 6 months of bank statements to apply for disability insurance? That seems awfully intrusive.)

I'm sure you're familiar with the study that says 4 in 10 Americans can't cover a $400 unexpected expense? Well, it doesn't quite say that [0], but it does cite a study that says only 24% of households have $400 in liquid assets. And, it also says that 14% of households would not be able to pay some bills if such an expense arose, and 12% could not cover the expense at all (I'm unclear if the 12% overlaps with the 14% though).

Are you saying you're okay with those people taking the first step into total financial ruin, just because of something they have little or no control over (becoming temporarily unable to work due to disability)? And, I'll ask again: why should one's bank balance affect one's ability to claim benefits when one paid into the system in order to fund those very benefits?

---

[0]: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-04/the-40...
> There are many problems with modern industrial agriculture and mass produced food, but efficiency is not one of them. There is very little waste in these operations and those kidneys, livers, and marrow bones are already being put to good use, whether its for human consumption or animal.

Maybe modern industrial agriculture is efficient, but modern food consumption isn't. Over a third of all available food is wasted in the USA. How much of that food waste would be OK to be re-processed as pet food?
It's a losing fight because Boeing aircraft crashed and started this whole mess.

Sure, politics are at play. But Delta doesn't want to buy defective planes. Neither does United.
I honestly cannot believe some of the things I read here.

In a recent post, airlines are burning thousands of gallons of fuels flying empty planes in order to keep their “slots” and how organizations literally destroy goods to keep their “use it or lose it” budgets: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22511488

Then there’s other news about how tons of food is just thrown away every day, or how presidential candidates are blowing millions of dollars on political ads just for the heck of it.

Some people actually defend that kind of blatant waste, in the name of Mammon, but you want to tax pets?

It’s bizarre how a small part of the population is so out of touch and so anti-human.

In any case, why is it about taxing pets and not just taxing pet food?
Url changed from http://microformats.org/2020/03/04/google-confirms-microform..., which points to this.
"Overlooked" except for the myriad of other articles that keep harping on this.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/4/16094674/cats-dogs-meat-di...

https://www.dailywire.com/news/environmentalists-save-world-...

https://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/the-truth-about-cats-and-...
3. Heroic effort that puts a stop to this without major disruption, following by insufferable people telling us "see it was never a big deal in the first place."

I'm not sure which is the worst option.
Only 2% of the US workforce has a FEDERAL minimum wage job. Many states and cities have higher minimum wages than that, and something like 40% make less than $15.
Value investors don't time the market, though it can seem like timing. To the extent to which one can assess a personal 'intrinsic value' to a company, one can buy when it is substantially undervalued and sell when it is substantially overvalued.

One can see this in Berkshire's cash hoard. Expect to see it deployed in the year to come, when valuations may become more in-line with historical norms.
The key point is in “basically” its a metaphor. The test kits have a 40% false positive and alternative test kits which may test using an entirely different method may improve this. If you think a 40% false positive is good I urge you to actually read the who guidelines which both state this information and recommend testing people multiple times over two weeks. Source is who technical guidelines for testing on their site.
This too shall pass.

Also a recession is a cleansing thing (Austrian school). A lot of unproductive people will be fired and a lot of stupid projects will be shut down, creating space for new ventures. You should take risks exactly during the time of a recession, not during the time of market & general confidence all time highs. Same with young age - take risks when you're young and your downside is small.

But it ain't going to be easy.

(contingent on the recession actually materializing).
No, my reply is a statement of how temporary disability benefits are utterly inadequate. See the other subthread for what I think of your proposal to punish people with inadequate emergency funds.
I think you must have misunderstood my comment because you say you see it from another angle, then you explain my position. It is vitally necessary to society that people be quarantined and be able to cope with the quarantine, and this requires they not be put in a position of damned if they do damned if they don't. They need a living income for their area for the time they are in isolation, which allows them to pay basic bills and not lose their house and everything they have worked for, plus obviously someone needs to be delivering meals, and basic needs to prevent insanity whether books or DVDs or paper notebooks to write in or whatnot.

Disability insurance might pay $50 a week for many, more for some. It's not enough. So the isolated break quarantine and roam, or go insane. Both are understandable given the horrific mismanagement of the crisis.

Based on my analysis of widespread stock market anomalies, the secretive quasi-executive branch's Plummet Protection Team has been spending dozens or even hundreds of billions of federal reserve creation bucks per day for almost two weeks now attempted to counter market slides. This is going to cause massive inflation, possibly hyperinflation if not stopped, and will not stop anything regarding the virus spread because it's not addressing market fundamentals. The same amounts spent on assisting with quarantined people, plus manufacturing masks and Chloroquine for mass distribution would have a chance of stopping this. There is absolutely no interest whatsoever in that approach, I presume because it is not profitable to certain parties or otherwise coalesce with their trajectories.
How did you learn this. Math undergrad? Comp sci? Something else?
It's an insurance payout that everyone is forced to pay premiums for out of every paycheck. CA SDI tax is 1% on the first $122,909 earned.

Of course the payout is capped, so anyone earning more than maybe $30k is subsidizing the insurance pool, but anyone who qualifies for SDI should absolutely claim it, because it's a benefit they have been paying for.
Oh, wow, he misspelled undue. What a freaking moron!
It probably reduces wear slightly. Increasing contact area necessarily decreases applied pressure. Then again, a wider effective contact profile damages more of the road than a narrower one would.

Let's not forget the context of this discussion, however. Fourth power expressions are still fourth power expressions after multiplication by a constant factor. 4/18 is a constant factor.
Venezuela nationalised its oil industry in 1976 (Carlos Andrés 1st term)
SARS was a close relative of Covid-19. No vaccine was developed:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syn...
The site has since been changed above (submitted url was http://microformats.org/2020/03/04/google-confirms-microform...).
I didn’t say I wasn’t.

I don’t subscribe to generic investment advice. Options are insurance when things are wacky. The coronavirus has concerned me since January and I hedged accordingly.
Are you saying that you think central banks will overshoot their inflation targets? Or that they'll hit them but that you don't think they should have those targets?
Memcached doesn't pander or resort to marketing to achieve a userbase (compare to redis/labs). It's a great piece of software engineering and I absolutely respect that there's no gimmick, no bullshit. Just a lot of hard work given away for free. Great work!
SARS happened 17 years ago yet a lot of people remember it vividly.

It had a dramatically smaller infection and fatality count than COVID-19 already has, and COVID seems to be just getting started.

I understand why people want to be optimistic, but this is a really big deal. The markets aren't taking a multi-trillion dollar haircut for nothing. Governments aren't quarantining tens of millions and undertaking absolutely historic responses for nothing.

And if anything, the impact of this is being grossly under-considered yet. Travel is withering to nothing. Airlines are flying around a bunch of empty jets. As these start appearing on balance sheets the cascading effect will begin.
The problem in the US is not urban planners. The main problem is that all of our financing mechanisms are basically aimed at supporting the development of single family detached homes and it's actively difficult to finance other stuff.

Co-housing works in Europe to make mixed income developments. In the US, with no financing available, it can only be built be a group of well-heeled friends who may not have poor friends and may not think to design the space to include anyone but their circle of friends because they are looking for a certain social experience and failing to see there's more to co-housing than shared meals with friends.

Single family detached housing financing and tax breaks and so forth has got our housing situation in a strangle hold. This was born of the events that led to the creation of the modern suburbs and most people aren't even aware of the history.

Single family detached homes in the suburbs are a standard by which we measure all housing and everything else is automatically presumed to be second rate and less desirable.

We are being haunted by these mental models and the nation as a whole doesn't really recognize it. So we go "Let's fix this problem!" and then we do more of the same, only bigger! prettier! more expensive! And we find ourselves stumped that the problem still persists and won't go away.

A builder in the Atlanta area owned three large lots and asked to chop them up into five smaller lots so he could build something sane and his request was denied in the name of preserving neighborhood character because the existing homes have big yards. So rather than build five homes more in line with the neighborhood character, he built three McMansions in order to make the profit he wanted or needed.

And this is part for the course.

We have studies that show that the way to preserve rural character and farmland is to build dense housing on a small strip nearby and keep the farms. But Americans are very resistant to that. Instead, they insist on designating minimum lot sizes and the result is the destruction of farmland to replace it with suburbs with ridiculous, sprawling yards.

We've got studies. We've got data. We know some things that actually work.

We can't get people to approve it locally and make it happen. It's partly logistical obstacles in the form of policy and financing and partly some bizarre mental block where we idealize and worship suburban patterns of development in ways and to a degree that amounts to cutting out own throats.

And it makes me spit nails. I don't even know how to begin talking with people in some kind of effective manner, much less begin developing stuff.
Incredible how many people and things were inspired by H2G2, including Radiohead: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/ev4ga7/thom-yorke-confirm...
At this point it’s about lack of trust (which is what markets are premised on).

https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-mozilo-market/

As this thing eats its way through other countries and their economies slowdown the cash flow outlook will change won’t it?
"everywhere" is moving the goalposts. The US (and Australia) doesn't even have amazing internet in the cities.
How many cities were under quarantine in 2009?
That is explained in the video
How much are other states giving?
Klee is the poster child for works that often, at a glance, look simple but upon a deep look reveals itself to be incredibly sophisticated.
Your hot take is wrong. Cash flows are absolutely going to be impacted here. Initially, the thought was that this was only going to be a supply-side shock, but people are planning to completely hunker down, not booking flights, not traveling to work, taking time off.

This is going to be a large, if transitory, problem. Buy a little bit of the dip every day, and get ready to eat some losses in Q2. Summer is coming.
I don't play the stock market (I invest monthly and hold), but doesn't all this kind of make you want to buy? Eventually everyone will get Coronavirus and 0.2% of us will be dead. Then it will be back to making things again.
This happens against a backdrop of unprecedented manipulation of the financial markets since 2008. The signs are everywhere:

- persistent negative-yielding long-term sovereign debt in Europe

- Bank of Japan owns 80% of the Japanese ETF market

- a Federal Reserve unable to contain the exploding repo market

- price-to-earnings multiple at historic highs, even accounting for declines

- stock buybacks galore field by ultra-accommodative central bank policies

- all eyes on the Fed to see what kind of shock-and-awe they can deliver

- a US administration doing everything in its power to undermine the independence of the Fed and bring on negative interest rates

The GFC never ended. It was never resolved. It was simply rolled over, like opening a second credit card account to paper over a hole in a personal budget.

Panic is a strong word. Market panics are very rare. Nevertheless, it would not be surprising to see a full-blown stock market panic this week.
this is more than just corona. oil prices have dropped 30% which generally should mean all asset/price levels should come down, at least if the drop is prolonged.
When and how do you see it being contained?
If there's a meaningful link, I expect one day health insurance companies will give you a break on your premiums if you won a dog.