Yes, the important role of luck is what is true usually, and even nearly always.

If you were picking life directions, startup projects, etc. from such directions and projects randomly, i.e., uniformly distributed across such directions and projects and independent of everything else, then the usual, more accurately, the average (expectation) is what you should expect to get.

BUT, BUT, BUT you do NOT have to pick directions and projects this way!!!!

There are other ways to pick. Yes they are rarely done, but there is a beautiful even spectacularly good history!

The first key is, use more and hopefully better information than is usual.

Here are some such projects:

There used to be typewriters and carbon paper. Not so good. So, Xerox developed and sole a much better solution. Presto, bingo, super big success.

Typewriters remained clumsy -- with the labor, a massive economic waste. IBM developed and sold their Selectric typewriters with a little spool for "corrections". It was much better and a big success.

Typewriters were still a pain. Along came personal computers. Even with just 640 KB of memory, no hard disk, and only 8" diskettes for storage, and a dot matrix printer, they were MUCH better than typewriters. With a daisy wheel printer with a carbon ribbon, they were much better, still. They sold "like hot cakes".

It's possible to have a toothache. I got one of those: I'd gritted my teeth getting CorelDraw working with PostScript output; nice output, but I cracked two molars. On one I had a root canal procedure and a gold crown. Eventually the other one let some infection into the center of the tooth. Result: CO2 pressure; worst pain imaginable. In about an hour, the CO2 pressure was high enough to leak out via the crack, and then an hour later the pain started again. I went to the ER. About then the pain started again. The ER physician just took out a Q-tip, dipped it in a small bottle, painted my tooth, and I was OKAY!!!!! He said he used Benzocaine which is what dentists use before giving an injection and is over the counter. So I rushed to a drug store and stocked up! So, Benzocaine -- works GREAT, got to have such a sore tooth to understand the real value. Not much chance of no market for Benzocaine! Result: A few days later the pain quit. A few weeks later, the tooth was loose in its socket. A week later it was gone!

We can all see places where there is a need and some good technical work will create a great solution highly desired by the market.

Sure, about the best will be one pill taken once that cures any cancer with no side effects. All we need is the pill, and presto, bingo, a 100 X unicorn! Sure, so far after no doubt some $billions in research funding, no one knows how to make that pill. But there is progress, and on and on we will be curing cancers until we have cured all or nearly all of them. Some of the cures will be very valuable.

So find a big need;
use some advanced, leading edge, partly original, difficult to duplicate or equal, technology to get a terrific solution. Tell the world. Buy a nice place in Aspen, along the Florida coast, in Maine, on Long Island (as in the Audrey Hepburn movie Sabrina), in Shenandoah, etc. and enjoy life!

So, given a problem, need a solution. Can we have any faith in technology? Hmm .... In WWII, the world learned, YES: Radar, penicillin, the proximity fuse, sonar, jet engines, code making and breaking, and The Bomb. Later the world learned from the SR-71, the Navy's nuke powered submarines, the Navy's version of GPS later done by the USAF, Keyhole, basically a Hubble but aimed at the earth, and much more. These projects were funded mostly by the US DoD, and the track record, batting average, bang for buck were terrific. In particular, the US DoD can look at a project proposed just on paper, evaluate it, go or not go, and achieve the track record. Very little luck needed!

Apparently Silicon Valley can't/won't do projects this way. So, there is an opportunity: If can find the problem, stir up the technology, and write the software, all as a small project, small team, maybe even sole, solo founder, then maybe can shop for those nice houses and no luck required!

Common? The usual? No. Possible? Yes.

Back to it!