From the Wikipedia Wuhan 2019-nCoV article, semi-log graph. Caption:

Semi-log plot of confirmed cases and deaths indicates the epidemic is in an exponential phase. Doubling time is 1.71 days (95% confidence interval 1.64 to 1.79) for case numbers

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_ou...

Since there are low and high estimates, I could include those values as well in my model.

OK, done. Note that this really shows how sensitive growth rates are to even modest changes in doubling rate. Note that the 'lo' column refers to the time to doubling, not the rate of doubling, which may otherwise be counterintuitive.

In the 100-day run, the difference between a 1.64 day doubling rate vs. a 1.79 day doubling rate is total global infection by April 8, vs. still < 360 million infected by May 6.

The real lesson here is that growth rate matters vastly more than starting quantity. That's something any investor should recognise innately, but it applies accross numerous other fields. Including pandemic spread, population growth, and resource utilisation rates of increase.

| day | date | deaths | cases | @ lo dbl | @ hi dbl |
|:--- | ------------:| ------------:| -------------:| -------------:| -------------:|
| 1 | Jan 29, 2020 | 154 | 7,091 | 7,393 | 6,774 |
| 2 | Jan 30, 2020 | 180 | 8,293 | 9,016 | 7,569 |
| 3 | Jan 31, 2020 | 211 | 9,700 | 10,996 | 8,457 |
| 4 | Feb 01, 2020 | 247 | 11,345 | 13,410 | 9,449 |
| 5 | Feb 02, 2020 | 288 | 13,269 | 16,353 | 10,557 |
| 6 | Feb 03, 2020 | 337 | 15,519 | 19,943 | 11,796 |
| 7 | Feb 04, 2020 | 395 | 18,152 | 24,321 | 13,180 |
| 8 | Feb 05, 2020 | 462 | 21,230 | 29,660 | 14,726 |
| 9 | Feb 06, 2020 | 540 | 24,830 | 36,171 | 16,454 |
| 10 | Feb 07, 2020 | 632 | 29,041 | 44,111 | 18,384 |
| 11 | Feb 08, 2020 | 739 | 33,967 | 53,794 | 20,541 |
| 12 | Feb 09, 2020 | 864 | 39,727 | 65,602 | 22,951 |
| 13 | Feb 10, 2020 | 1,011 | 46,465 | 80,003 | 25,644 |
| 14 | Feb 11, 2020 | 1,183 | 54,345 | 97,564 | 28,652 |

| day | date | deaths | cases | @ lo dbl | @ hi dbl |
|:--- | ------------:| ------------:| -------------:| -------------:| -------------:|
| 1 | Jan 29, 2020 | 154 | 7,091 | 7,393 | 6,774 |
| 8 | Feb 05, 2020 | 462 | 21,230 | 29,660 | 14,726 |
| 15 | Feb 12, 2020 | 1,383 | 63,561 | 118,981 | 32,014 |
| 22 | Feb 19, 2020 | 4,143 | 190,297 | 477,290 | 69,595 |
| 29 | Feb 26, 2020 | 12,403 | 569,731 | 1,914,634 | 151,293 |
| 36 | Mar 04, 2020 | 37,135 | 1,705,718 | 7,680,489 | 328,895 |
| 43 | Mar 11, 2020 | 111,181 | 5,106,750 | 30,810,015 | 714,985 |
| 50 | Mar 18, 2020 | 332,865 | 15,289,096 | 123,593,305 | 1,554,303 |
| 57 | Mar 25, 2020 | 996,564 | 45,774,017 | 495,790,250 | 3,378,893 |
| 64 | Apr 01, 2020 | 2,983,613 | 137,042,800 | 1,988,845,356 | 7,345,363 |
| 71 | Apr 08, 2020 | 8,932,639 | 410,292,352 | 7,978,184,014 | 15,968,056 |
| 78 | Apr 15, 2020 | 26,743,422 | 1,228,374,011 | 32,004,207,853 | 34,712,893 |
| 85 | Apr 22, 2020 | 80,067,114 | 3,677,628,161 | 128,383,767,336 | 75,462,218 |
| 92 | Apr 29, 2020 | 239,712,883 | 11,010,448,584 | 515,007,020,041 | 164,047,010 |
| 99 | May 06, 2020 | 717,676,247 | 32,964,174,931 | 2,065,932,759,210 | 356,621,130 |

Chart is formatted as a Markdown chart, BTW.