skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Revenue isn't earnings.

A $100B market cap for a fast-growing company with ~$0 profit is definitely not "on the cheap side".

But I agree that a $100B market cap for a company with ~$13B in profit is quite pessimistic. VW's future is cloudy.
Humble Book Bundle: Artificial Intelligence by MIT Press
At risk of stating what I think is the obvious: Either when the faithful change their minds, or when the USD is no longer so devalued. Money is based on faith, as well as the value of other assets like real estate (including precious metals).

I purchase multi-family rentals to be short the US dollar. My assets slowly gain value (while cash flowing) as the Federal Reserve continues its stimulus efforts (currently called Not-QE), which in turn devalues the currency.
Building homes near jobs should mean less traffic, not more. None, if you build them with walking, cycling, and transit in mind. The nimby's often seem to think that all those potential workers will just cease to exist instead of simply commuting from farther away.
All I see is verbal narratives that don't justify the price. Just saying that Tesla is good company, grows fast, has advantage, is not enough. Everything can be overvalued.

Narratives without numbers are just as valid for $100B valuation as they are for $500B or $1 Trillion.

Has any Tesla investor done the investor math justifying the price compared against SP500 Index Fund for 6% total return for example.

Even if Tesla's revenue and profit margin equal Toyota 10 years from now, I can't see it being worth $100B today. Permanently higher product margins and no viable competition?
Maybe they are talking about what it's worth to them. Just because other people don't agree with them doesn't mean they're wrong to have their own subjective idea of what something is worth.

There are good reasons to talk about the value of something in both a subjective and an objective way. The amount of money something is going for generally in the market is an important number for some purposes, and the amount of money you'd personally pay is also an important number for other purposes.
It would be nice if there were some third party that companies could turn over the results of these interview project assignments to, which would allow release of that information to other companies upon authorization by the candidate.

The idea is that you interview at some place that asks for a substantial take-home interview project. You do it. Afterwards, the project requirements and your solution are turned over to third party.

Then the next place you interview wants a project, too. You can point them at the third party and authorize release of your info to them. They can then see what that first company asked for, see what you provided, and if it covers the same kind of things that their project does they might then accept it instead of making you do another one.
The thing is the market only cares about the opinion of those who put their money where their mouth is.
Noticed that too, fully agree with you.

They also added a "Premium license" at the same time too which allows exactly what the person has done but under the new license, doesn't say how to get granted this license though.
unless you think it's a risk-free asset

And unless your risk aversion is zero. Which more or less holds true for me. (Aka, playing a game of coin tossing where head wins a dollar and tail loses a dollar does not make me uncomfortable).

Otherwise it depends on:

1) Your risk aversion

2) The percentage of your portfolio you intend to invest into Tesla

3) How correlated your portfolio is to Tesla

If you only invest a sufficiently small amount (compared to your overall portfolio) into something, then the overall risk of your portfolio will go down. No matter how volatile that something is. So in that case, there also is no need to discount future earnings except for expected inflation.
I would just like to point out this is 75% of Bitcoin's market cap, and at this point I'm not sure what the bubble is anymore. Maybe both? Or maybe TSLA proves BTC's demand could have been genuine?

Graph: https://twitter.com/cedivad/status/1220032154912088064
> You could if you wanted to

Not really. There are no margin accounts with terms as favorable as the typical mortgage loans. (Some examples of terms mortgages have that margin loans don't: the absence of margin calls, the low interest rates, the relative diversity and transparency of rates from potential lenders, etc.)
How Much Is Facebook Investing in AR and VR?
Wastewater, perhaps?
Yup. And the cost of time on Tesla options right now is insane. $590 puts for April cost ~$66.
The Taycan is a dud.

Slower (acceleration), more expensive, less range, worse software, no Autopilot, no supercharger stations. Who wants that?

The efficiency is so bad in the Taycan it' laughable. With similar battery sizes, the Model S gets 100 miles more range. Porsche is many years behind Tesla in understanding electric drivetrain efficiency.

For the fast version (Turbo S), the Taycan is $80k more expensive than the Model S Performance.

I suppose the Taycan has nicer materials inside.
No idea why you're being downvoted here. You're absolutely right. As an investment, housing has some incredibly awful attributes:

- Incredibly low liquidity—takes months of effort to buy or sell

- Very complex to buy/sell (usually requires lawyers, lots of inspections, documentation, etc)

- High fees to both buy AND sell it

- It's taxed every year, regardless of whether you actually earn any money on it (aka: sell it)

- It's constantly falling apart, and requiring upkeep maintenance

- It's completely undiversified: subject to not only one country, one state, one city, one neighborhood, but a single tiny plot of land at one specific location that could be hit by any sort of natural disaster, get bad neighbors, have the local economy collapse, etc. Its pool of potential buyers is also limited to this very tiny location.

- Returns are relatively low, roughly in-line with inflation

- It's almost always leveraged (often good, but that cuts both ways, and you have to pay the interest on it regardless of what happens)

Sounds like a wonderful deal, eh?
This is confusing to me, the pre-compilation tools catch these simple things instantly and display them right in your editor, which is far superior to having to wait until you compile to catch them.
So, how does your return experience compare to not having to return at all, because you received a Legos Creator kit that has all the pieces?

Your experience is completely irrelevant. If Amazon didn't send out obvious counterfeits, you wouldn't have to return them, which is inherently easier than returning them no matter what the return process is.
> Many people aren't voting at all

Choosing not to vote is a vote.

> because they're excluded based on felony convictions, inability to meet paperwork requirements for voter IDs, etc.

Felony disenfranchisement hardly contradicts my point. And anyway, voter suppression and felony disenfranchisement are at all time lows historically, so my point stands just fine.

> Gerrymandering is extremely effective. The electoral college isn't intentional gerrymandering, but it has the same effect as gerrymandering: two of the last three presidents lost the popular vote. And where it's intentional, it's even more effective. In North Carolina, Republicans won 77% of congressional seats with just over 50% of the popular vote in 2018. In Ohio, Republicans won 75% of congressional seats with 52% of the popular vote in 2018.

Sure. My point isn't that our democracy is perfectly implemented. My point is that its current incarnation is its most democratic yet. Until Obama, candidates were basically selected by the fiat of elite groups. Obama, and then Trump, up-ended that system, making our democracy more democratic than it ever has been. For better or worse.
As Steve Eisman said: "It's very hard to short a stock that's a cult ..."
* more traffic

Which is why transit expansion should go hand in hand with increased density. When you allow more density near existing transit stations, it makes it more useful. SB50 is a proposal to do just that, and yet the NIMBYs who fear increased traffic are preventing that bill, which would improve traffic by focusing development on areas near transit.

* more students at schools that are already overcrowded

More housing built leads to more property tax revenue, which leads to more resources to expand schools and build new ones. If the existing property tax rate isn't keeping up with school expenses, then the property tax rate is too low. Conveniently, the NIMBYs who fear overcrowded and overburdened schools are also the ones who refuse to repeal Prop 13 that keeps property taxes too low.

See the pattern here? Property owners make these arguments as reasons against increased density, yet prevent the solutions from being implemented. When you really dig in, NIMBYs overarching interests are in keeping their property value high, and in feeling entitled to freezing their neighborhood to the exact feel it had when they moved in. All the other reasons they give are bullshit.
I believe most resources are far more fungible and/or replaceable

Ok.
Outside Signal app, if e.g. I incorporate the protocol to my own app via the provided source code, am I prevented from leaking keys?
Just looking at the current revenue, the valuation of Tesla seems increadible high. But there are quite a few reasons for the optimism connected to Tesla.

Tesla by a fair margin owns the market for electric cars. So anyone who thinks that electric cars are the future, should expect Tesla to do quite well. All big car companies are trying to keep up with Tesla in electric car tech and additionally, if the transition comes, are burdened with a lot of production facilities for ICE cars.

Tesla is also much more than just cars, they have their own charging infrastructure, battery manufacturing, might play a big role in cell manufacturing going forward and are getting important in the energy sector, which might overtake the car business one day.

Also, Tesla is growing exponentially. This gives a lot of growth fantasy, that they might get to the size of Amazon one day, which would mean a multiple of stock value compared today.

But most importantly, and that is the reason they have such a strong support amongst their current and potential customers: they keep innovating. A bit like Apple of the old, if they announce a new product, prepare to see something really new. While traditional car manufacturers keep iterating on their products, Tesla has completely new things, just think of the Cybertruck. Which other car annoucement got that much press coverage as the Cybertruck? Also, the Semi could get huge.

There are also some very technical factors driving the recent raise of the stock: there have been quite a few good, if not great news (Q4 sales numbers, Gigafactory 3 operating within 1 year of the building start, Gigafactory 4 planned).
Then there is still a huge amount of stock shorted, so while it not might be a full short squeeze, the shorts need to cover the stocks they shorted.
Finally, Tesla might join the S&P 500, which means, that a lot of institutions have to buy Tesla stock, which will drive it up further, at least short-time.
The Saudi crown prince reportedly hacked Jeff Bezos
The English copy is there too, though that site is a nightmare to navigate. Here's the direct link.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
Sign in with Apple on Website
Future profitability is how equities are priced. Ford is expected to not be (very) profitable while Tesla is. Number of units sold is irrelevant.
In theory yeah it shouldn't be that bad. In practice there are many different third-party charge providers, and they all have their own RFID cards you have to order in advance after setting up accounts and adding payment methods and whatnot. Or if you don't have the special RFID card that matches the station you want to charge at, you might be able to download an app and set up an account on your phone, but a lot of charging station apps are buggy and hard to use. Many of these third-party charging stations are also unreliable, or only have one or two plugs which may be occupied when you show up. In practice the whole third-party charging ecosystem is just a mess and the Supercharger network has none of these problems.
I made a mistake by bringing up returns.

The truth is, returns would be irrelevant if Amazon had done their job.
I suppose you might look at some technical discussions of whether you're better off with a larger area built up to 6-10 stories or something like that, than fewer, taller skyscrapers, but in general, that denser environment keeps cities from sprawling out, and is more friendly to people walking around.

I prefer the more European style of 2-8 stories, like here: https://goo.gl/maps/poabxNny8r8Jq46v7

But I think the broader point stands.
"annualized run rate" is useful for growing companies and has nothing to do with "recurring". Why would you use "recurring" in the context of Tesla?!
1. The facility is not accepting new deposits but it is operational. Regardless, this is a political fearmongering challenge, not a scientific one.

2. This is absolutely false because you are not including the costs of STORAGE. Without massive storage, they are useless in providing year-round baseload.

3. Gen III+ reactors are built to international standards. Racism is not an adequate argument.
> One of the world's top self driving car engineers reckons we might never get Level 5.

I have some minor-level experience with self-driving car software, algorithms, etc. The majority of this is from various MOOCs I have participated in over the years, as well as research papers, books, and other things I have read and consumed. In short, I am not an expert, but I am not unfamiliar with the technology, either.

I personally think we'll never see actual widespread usage of self-driving vehicles outside of a very few narrow and carefully controlled (and regulated) cases. At least, I suspect, within my lifetime (which honestly, I'll be lucky for another 30 years or so).

My reasoning is that people will only trust perfection when it comes to riding in a self-driving vehicle. They will only be willing to use one if they can be assured that it will Never Crash, or be crashed into. They have no problem driving a car themselves, or being surrounded by other people driving cars. They have no problem with those crashing and even killing people - maybe even themselves (though they tell themselves fairy tales of it-will-never-happen-to-me to soothe over the reality). But introduce a machine into the equation...

...and that machine has to be Perfect. It cannot make any mistakes. It must avoid issues and be Safe 100% of the time, no exceptions.

In other words, people want the impossible from a machine, but will give utmost allowances to themselves and others as "humans".

I think a lot of this has to do with assignment of blame. When they crash or are crashed into - there is someone to assign blame to; themselves, the other driver, etc. Someone they can yell at, figuratively or literally.

A self-driving car? No one to yell at. No one to assign blame. Nothing that will feel bad for its error or failure to avoid something.

People can't handle that. They don't want a self-driving vehicle that has a safety factor of say, "seven 9s" - it has to be 100% safe or nothing. Because even if it makes a mistake only once out of a million miles of driving, that is still not safe enough. They want the unobtainable - a perfect machine, a machine that will never fail. Nothing like that can or will ever exist (basic laws of thermodynamics prevent it, for one thing).

Even though they themselves, or even the most professional of professional drivers - can't even come close to approaching this level. It both madness, and understandable at the same time.
It's not. Telsa's Enterprise Value is $108B, Ford's Enterprise Value is $153B.
> Hit pieces like this are the reason that we are in climate crisis now

Please, don't pretend that this rather technical piece has any significant influence compared to the editorial stance of the wall street journal, that actively denied climate change for decades, going at it as late as 2018 [ https://www.sciencealert.com/major-news-outlets-wall-street-... ].
Oracle Banking Flexcube Vulnerabilities 2020
Mozilla Wants Young People to Consider ‘Ethical Issues’ Before Taking Tech Jobs
Anything and everything made with Unity.
Why exactly is it my responsibility to make up for Amazon's misdeeds?
> As far as I am aware, none of the Tesla, even in perfect form, are as well built as any of the state of the art luxury cars.

Are you just regurgitating stuff you read/watched, or have you actually owned other "state of the art luxury cars." and a Model S or 3 for example. To do a fair and objective comparison?

Also, Tesla is more positioned and priced at the Premium segment. Sure a Model S is not as luxurious as a Mercedes S-Class for example. But it lags in driver assist and safety functions by a long shot.
The DOJ goes after operatives and individuals - not heads of state or states themselves.
I’ve used Piwik (Matomo) and the open source version seems to work pretty well, but I’ve never had any particularly sophisticated use cases.
First Node.js-Based Ransomware: Nodera
A housing loan is far less risky than a 5x margin position as they are structurally different types of loans:

* The housing loan is non-recourse (you can't lose more than your home), while brokerage is not.

* A housing loan's collateral value is only determined at purchase, not hourly. You can't get "margin called" on your house if its value declines.

All said, I'll give you that people are oddly leverage-adverse when it comes to brokerages and actually take on more risk (to achieve a given expected return) than they need to if they were willing to use light (10-20%) leverage.
That's because these countries have large numbers...

Or, they're making our cheap crap and have to throw the remaining away.
I have yet to see gas stations even attempt to establish the scale of charging infrastructure that Tesla is doing
I think the idea was that you could take a single MO disk around from workstation to workstation and carry your environment around with you.

This philosophy lived on into the Apple years. The reason the original iPods had Firewire connectors on them was so that you could eventually go from Mac to Mac and just boot off of your iPod and continue your work.

It's why a lot of people who worked with Xserve servers always carried iPods with them — the servers had Firewire ports right on the front and you could plug your iPod in and access your files.
It is nice to have a connection between abstractions and hardware, because it makes it easier to reason about performance, which in turn makes it easier to achieve great performance.

Now, not everybody actually need great performance, so some distance between hardware and abstraction is ok, but the amount depends on the use case.
This happened to me. At the end of a long and stressful divorce, I realized that I needed to take some time off (or else). Took about six months and then discovered that it's very difficult to get rehired after such a gap. (Being "old" doesn't help either.)

You have to play the cards you're dealt, though, and if you really need a break, it's way better than the "or else".
The trick is:

* Introduce laws that make it harder to (legally) build housing. Note that much of New York would be illegal to build today, for instance.

* Use these laws to create scarcity. Ensure that there's never quite as much housing as people who need homes.

* Make massive amounts of debt available for said housing.

You now have an entire class of people who want to be sure their house only goes up in price, and that there is only just barely enough housing built to stop their region from collapsing. After all, who wants to be underwater on a mortgage?

I don't know how to break this on a policy level. Few people vote for the politician who says "I want your house to go down in price" so we get insane levels of rube-goldberg devices to make housing "more affordable" while also making it ever more expensive.

The more debt you make available, the more housing soaks it up. Sweden recently made the maximum mortgage length 105 years!

On the bright side, if you look at stuff that no bank will lend on (dilapidated structures, etc) there are some good deals to be had.
Black Mesa - definitely. Preserves everything in HL1 and adds a lot more. Xen is like 100% different though, Black Mesa's one is waaaaay better but if you want to experience HL1 version...
Nah, it is indeed much easier to invest in real estate on 5-10x leverage than doing the same with stocks or ETFs, because the banks are usually much more comfortable lending you the money in the first case.

I think it's because of the mind trickery that makes the first thing a solid "buying a house" investment and the second thing a "gambling on the stock market" game. You can easily see that trickery at work: just confront someone who bought a house on credit with the fact that he just put all his money into a highly leveraged single investment, which combines two of the usual "don'ts" from the "Investment for Dummies" book. You will usually earn blank stares.

Not saying that doing such an investment doesn't make sense in certain circumstances (use the house yourself and plan on staying there for decades), but one should be very clear about the risk profile of it.
We agree to disagree then. Good luck to nuclear proponents attempting to make their case to the general public (who don't want it), investors (who won't invest in it), and political leaders (who don't want to risk their careers on it).

In the meantime, progress marches on:

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_d... (Generating unit retirements, Nov 2019 through Oct 2020)

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c... (Generating unit additions, Nov 2019 through Oct 2020)

Source: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4 (EIA Electric Power Monthly)
Apologies for the paywalled link. Interesting article by Kashmir Hill. Kash wrote some cool stuff about giving up social media a while back. Informative.
Meanwhile, Toyota and Honda sell 10 as many cars to the vast majority of people who will never be able to afford Teslas, and the cars work long-term.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-u-s-auto-sales-figures-by...

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisf...

> When the Model 3 first came out in 2017, Consumer Reports gave it an average predicted reliability score based on the survey results at the time about the Model S... The car maintained its average score for predicted reliability in October 2018... The new survey data shows that the car has dropped from average to below-average reliability.

> The Tesla Model S lost CR’s recommendation in October 2018 largely because of suspension problems.

> The Model X SUV has always had below-average reliability through its lifespan,
Taking things into account and shaping our policies accordingly means making a prediction about future supply. Predictions of impending supply exhaustion have historically had a very, very poor track record. Distrusting them is not a predictive failure, even if they are guaranteed to come true eventually, because timescale matters.

As for "we may find a better use down the road" -- sure, but for the purposes of resource planning, that statement is completely useless. You have to pick a probability, time scale, and value for your position to have meaning from the perspective of resource planning, and not coincidentally those are the exact prerequisites for taking a market position on the subject.

There are many things markets do poorly, but cutting through the bullshit, forcing you to formulate a meaningful position, and rewarding/punishing you appropriately is something they do very well.