skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
- EVTOL will start to grow from the current nothing, but will not be a revolutionary transport mechanism by 2030. People will be investing in it and trying to make it work though, but even the bullish EVTOL investors like Uber will be struggling to make it work as globally as expected.

- I think autonomous cars will be much further along, but only in certain parts of the World - more likely to see them in Monaco than in Mumbai or Manchester, not for economic reasons but because of road and typical weather conditions.

- Most "liberal democracies" will slide to the right for a prolonged period of time. There is no appetite for a move to the left, as much as many of us think it's "obvious" that people will eventually see through right-wing messaging or will die off naturally.

- The USSR will be back in all but name. It arguably already is, but by 2030 we'll know what a post-Putin World might look like, and it will not involve more democracy in Russia. The majority of Russians will be fine with this.

- India in the '20s will be like China in the '10s, but greener.

- China itself will try to go big on green tech, but will struggle to economically justify it until consumers show they're prepared to pay for it (which they never have to date).

- I am quite bearish on the EU post-Brexit. I think France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal will all face a rise in anti-EU sentiment amongst voters.

- Meanwhile the UK will be a strange mix of striving for a new Industrial Revolution with a tax and political environment that reminds people of Singapore.

- Most software engineers will spend a bigger proportion of their time taking off the shelf ML/AI tools and plugging them together and facing a business problem. I think a "Ruby on Rails of ML/AI" is quite likely.

- I think the companies that have spent the '10s trading on personal data (Facebook, Google, etc.) will struggle with that business model as the audience becomes more aware and careful with their private data.

- Bitcoin is going to muddle along, but even if most of the problems with it (transaction rate, power usage, etc.), get fixed then most people are now so sceptical of crypto coins, they will all struggle to get public mind share.

- Meat consumption will be way, way down. Maybe below 3/4 what it is today, driven by environmentalism, animal rights awareness and a growing landscape of decent competitors.

- At least one major metro or municipal area will have gone carbon neutral, and at least one country will be on target to be entirely carbon neutral by 2035.
almost all of the predictions were totally wrong, mostly intellectual masturbation, and the one comment that was nearly bang-on was one of the least up-voted. nothing has changed.
How is this a full guide?

Not even close.
The big announcement when the iPad was introduced in March 2010 was that Netflix would have an app for it. It had been streaming for at least three or four yesss by then.
> One thing that it is safe to assume is genetically encoded somehow is that sounds made by your parents/humans around you is worth repeating while other sounds are not.

I don't see how that's safe to assume at all. What one could assume is the level of familiarity and comfort (sight, smell, touch) might be somewhat genetic and gives such inputs precedence. OR it might just be that those sources of information are engaging and animated.

> Do note that it is very likely that human brains can learn all that because they have some good heuristics built in.

Nor do I see this assumption having any weight, many of the heuristics we take for granted were hard fought, its just so long ago that we've forgotten the fight. Lets not forget how "little" our species gets over the first few YEARS of child development.
If your child can move their body, just about walk and talk a little at TWO WHOLE YEARS in, they're an achiever.
Clojure - paradigm shift and leverage. Rust - speed and safety.
Really cool project! If you like artsy and short code snippets https://twitter.com/hashtag/tweetcart is also a great source of awe.
Think that's exactly why some people are keen on small government.
I'd like to see a more practical solution for removing disk encryption keys from RAM.

For example, wipe the disk encryption key from RAM, but then pause all disk IO and present some kind of UI to re-enter the encryption key to continue using the system.

Encrypting all of system RAM can also quickly be done - perhaps a kernel module which in the case of a panic encrypts all of system ram with a key derived from your disk encryption key would be handy. Then when the key is available again, ram can be decrypted and processes resumed.
Ugh, I felt an itch because of the x-axis ordering. Obviously it jokingly skips the XP, Me and NT builds because x-axis is only numeric.
Projectional editors use that setup. Might be slightly different than what you have in mind since projectional editing is not great at text editing. But have a look at Jetbrains MPS, that's a language workbench for projectional editors.
I wrote a guide on self hosting Bitwarden on Dokku
Money does not stink -> is the old saying. It doesn't matter for most people who pays them. There is still a huge queue of competent devs waiting to enter at G and FB and give everything they got for big money.
You can highly remunerate health care professionals without the entire health care system being treated as a for-profit business.
You'd use a single multi-bitplane interleaved fill-blit if the background surrounding it did not need to be preserved (eg. no mask requirements as per Flow - demos tend to do this for its speed).

I'd imagine Another World creates an off-screen single-bit deep bitmap and uses that as a mask. I sent you an email if you'd like to explore more, however the original programmer probably just remembers what he actually did.

Also note that non-overlapping polygons can be grouped together in both approaches by line-blitting with XOR destination (adjacent polygons share an edge and so the edge is XOR blitted twice); so there are substantial speed-ups to be had.
Indeed. This is an intentional dupe on the part of the submitter. Per https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html: “If a story has had significant attention in the last year or so [as this one did], we kill reposts as duplicates.”
There seems to be a spectacular underestimation of the amount of training data humans experience.

Not only does socialised human intelligence require at least a decade of formal education, but it also spends a lot of time in a complex 3D environment which is literally hands-on.

It's true some of the meta-structures predispose certain kinds of learning - starting with 3D object constancy, mapping, simple environmental prediction, and basic language abstraction.

But that level gets you to advanced animal sentience. The rest needs a lot of training.

For example - we can recognise objects in photographs, but I strongly suspect we learn 3D object recognition first - most likely with a combination of shape/texture/physics memory and modelling - and then add 2D object recognition later, almost as a form of abstraction.

Human intelligence is tactile, physical, and 3D first, and abstracted later. So it seems strange to me to be trying to make AI start with abstractions and work backwards.
So some predictions for SW industry:

* We would be still using Python 2 and Linux kernel 3.X somewhere in production
* Google Fuchsia will reach beta
* Go will not get generics
* Rust won't reach dreamed popularity -- still deemed terribly difficult & non ergonamic outside HN circles..
* The AI hype slows down as investors realize most things sold as AI are not really AI.
* Hopefully a well designed, productive native programming language emerges with top notch tooling and flow of programming similar to python.
Why?

When azinman2 claimed the reported COTAP numbers for China are probably wrong I was saying the same is true for the US for exactly the same reasons - measuring emissions on a national scale is hard, there are good reasons not to believe any self-reported data that business relies on, and frankly America has worse climate emissions policies than China at the moment.

I'm not suggesting that other agencies that independently measure emissions are wrong. It is possible to measure emissions remotely (eg the satellite that SmellyGeekBoy linked to), and that provides proper unbiased data.
I'll be happy if we're all still here in 2030.
I think you reinforced their point.
1. Quantum computing. Lots more research in this field due to the end of Moore’s law. Maybe some attempts at graphene CPUs but they ultimately fail and new architecture is needed. I think it’ll be quantum- finally ending x86 dominance.

2. AMD will fail to capture any true market share despite them doing very well in recent times. Intel capitalises on alternative architectures.

3. The SF bubble half-bursts lots of companies die or are consumed by the tech giants, leading to very few startups and bloated large companies.

5. Divergence of client and server processor architecture.

6. The increase of touch-first mobile websites. Much less “apps”, only professionals have laptops. Executives use tablets for nearly everything.

7. Dockable “business” tablets everywhere.

8. Excel finally dies, google sheets takes its place.

9. AWS’s chasing of features over quality finally bites them and they are no longer able to compete in cloud. But they have such a monopoly it doesn’t matter for most people. AWS becomes the “Microsoft Windows” of servers.
Marriages and having children will become less and less popular, and under-population will start to be a real concern for economies.

Governments to start / increase incentives to get married and have kids.
Social Media Algorithms 2020: Updates and Tips by Platform
AMD Breaks Its All-Time Stock Price Record – Tom's Hardware
"5. Majority of people still don't care about privacy."

"The majority of people don't draw the privacy line where I draw it, therefore they don't value privacy at all."
Why is e^(pi * I) = -1?
I was replying to the sentence about choice of lang. not having much effect on the quality of software.
> there will always be death panels

Exactly. Currently they're for-profit death panels in the insurance industry. And their metric is profit, not minimising death and suffering.

The UK approach to this is a board called NICE, which measures effectiveness and tries to set a cost-benefit level. What this means is that the UK is behind on leading-edge cancer drugs which cost a fortune for a few extra months of life, but makes sure that everyone has insulin. The US system is the other way round: some people get the life extension, some people die from lack of insulin.

(A surprising amount of healthcare rationing in the UK is simple waiting)
Humans don't _just_ learn to recognise the things they see though, they have complex mental models of the objects and things about them they can access by choice as well as make hypotheses about new things that they can immediately test, humans don't get labelled photos of cats, but they see cats in 3D and can interact with them and use spatial reasoning and walk around them to completely separate that cat from the background behind them.
Turning on WebRender in Stable Firefox
> At Google I remember a friend talking about how he cringed whenever he added more code to the pipeline that ingests the entire internet. He said that he wondered how much extra carbon was release into the atmosphere just because of his stupid code.

I wish companies were under more financial pressure to actually track and mitigate this. (hint hint, carbon taxes)
You can render using WebGL so you don't need DOM manipulation, any UI library in any language will do. The advantage to this method is that you are no longer limited by browsers slow and inconsistent DOM implementation, you can just make your own.
Was Killing Soleimani a Mistake?
GCC 10 Adds ARMv8.6-A Targeting, BFloat16 and I8MM Options
I'm only playing devil's advocate, but potentially wouldn't separate trade deals with non-EU countries increase the isolation a little?
Don't underestimate how many people find meaning in care work, whether it's financially very well compensated or not so much. Look at places where healthcare is less subject to market forces, like substantial parts of the EU. You might get positively surprised.

And good compensation for health professionals can happen in a non-profit context too.
Crowdsourcing / the ‘sharing’ or gig economy are huge.
I might write more in-depth predictions on tildes, but for now the most egregious I can think of is on the change around the cryptocurrency space.

It'll probably still be around in some form. If cryptocurrencies themselves are still around by 2030 (seems likely) it'll look very different to today. Probably much more regulated and less fragmented (or on its way to standardize on fewer currencies; also fewer single-use-case currencies). If cryptocurrencies are successful 10 years from now, there will be a few government-backed ones at least. Libra (the Facebook one) won't happen, but something like it will be tried again, probably by Google or Amazon.

ICOs will be considered a joke and the scam of last decade. We'll look back at people falling for crypto scams in the 2010s like new web users fell for Nigerian scams in the 2000s.

Edit: just to try my hand at an extra prediction here, I think the rise of streaming services around tv means piracy will make a strong comeback with Plex and the like; and gaming will increasingly be streamed as well (think Stadia, but something that is successful, maybe by Steam). This may be more of a 20 year prediction but I think game developers will actually adapt their code, engines etc to better support the entire gameplay being streamed (latency-sensitive games becoming less mainstream).
Build Node API in Browser for Your MVP
We use far more parts of our bodies to interact with technology.

(And if this comes true, someone will comment with a reference weird sex thing that fits this bill, and then someone else will respond with how that was actually already available in 2020.)
Ah what the heck, may record mine for posterity as well. Most things rather bleak, still hope for some positives surprising me.

Tech:

1. Industrialization and commodification of deep learning.

2. No AGI. Substantial progress in understanding human nervous system though.

3. The the tech landscape solidifies the split between privacy-conscious and pricey 'ware and the mass market 'ware paid for with surveillance.

4. Network pollution caused by 5G and/or similar. Average person will have their home littered with random appliance transmitters they have no awareness about.

5. Actually controlling what your computers do will be a more esoteric and in-demand skill. CS departments will correct towards the pre-1980s mode when you were expected to actually learn most of the stuff at the university.

6. The push for tech regulation will sunset the unicorn era. Tech giants start to look more like telco giants, which still means people work for them for big money and less luster.

Geopolitics:

1. China will be an ideological superpower, Cold War or Age of Imperialism style, with a sizeable sphere of influence on most of continents, and many ideological adherents to the "safety and order by total surveillance" brand of totalitarianism in the West. There will be again two recognizable world systems, with one centered in the US (or possibly EU, if many things change) and the other in China. This can include new centers of manufacturing linked to the former.

2. There will be little organized response of the Western world to this, barring significant new popular movements in the US/EU. Non-US NATO countries will be mostly left to their own devices, with some fear of criticizing China by private citizens.

3. Russia will be moving towards becoming a client state of China, possibly with subtle hints of warlord decentralization.

4. The populist camp in the West, depending on the country, will be either flirting with China or evolve towards a kind of McCarthyism (some hints of that in the GOP nowadays). The establishment camp will be battered by unpopular but kinda necessary policies around pension reform, climate change etc. It's possible that a new camp based on the likes of Greens and Pirates, or something unquestionably leftist will gain viability.

5. Overall, there will be a global rethinking of nation state with stress on the "cyber" sovereignty. More world fragmentation in terms of tech, government policy.

6. On the other hand, political positions will be more global and homogenized, and English-speaking.

7. Climate change will incur a heavy cost, catastrophic in specific places, with little global response, more blame-shifting and elaborate denial.

8. With the increasing role of governments there will be visible progress in global regulation of finance.
- A.Yang becomes US president

- A deal between US & China destabilizes china. The UK wants into the deal. EU wants another part

- A military insurgence in an african country establishes a free-trade zone. a part of the world's manufacturing moves to africa.

- As europe is aging, most of its rural land becomes deserted. Airbnb is struggling because its now cheaper to buy a european home than rent.

- The UK becomes a tax haven and attracts thousands of tech companies , most of which are now remote. SV sees a massive exodus of capital

- People become weary and stop talking about politics. Having nothing to talk about, facebook dies. People put their money where their mouth is, and we have the first experimental , co-owned private cities.

- Climate warming is actually viewed positive by people living in northern countries.

- Travel is significantly reduced, as 30% of the population work remote. Instead of tourism, people do forms of nomadism. AirBnbLonger.com becomes the most valuable startup in london or sth.

- Disillusion with self driving vehicles leads to despair initially, but then quickly every car is equipped with driving assist . Drivers are no longer drivers, they are now safety drivers

- AI passes the turing test. Bots trained on wikipedia that can reason and come up with logical answers surpass google's search result quality. Google dies. People on twitter stop caring whether they are talking to a bot or human, and learn to just enjoy the chat

- A few major countries dissolve. Perhaps even a few US states secede

- The first age reversal therapies are successful

- A full artificial womb is finalized. Societies give up on traditional family norms, completely disengaging sex from family. Massive orgies become the most popular form of entertainment
Would Pulsar be suitable for IoT messaging? An alternative to mqtt?
> Governments to start / increase incentives to get married and have kids.

Probably gonna be another tax incentive around housing
Hm, I'm actually not sure where I draw the line for what is avdertising and what is not.

The part about non-personal is copy-pasted from:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advertising

And the 3rd sentence on that page is: "It differs from personal selling in that the message is non-personal, i.e., not directed to a particular individual."

I would probably say that it is still advertising if it is using some form of automated targeting, such as: buying a list of people who just got kids and sending them a letter with their name printed on it.

But If someone stopped me on the street and asked if I have heard about the latest pyramid scheme, I would not call advertising but rather "personal selling"
I'm aware of the spec differences, but not how the experience differs in practice. In particular, it's not obvious that "much better" would translate to "good enough" - say for an eight hour day of coding/writing.
The problem with this thinking is the framing.

The climate change is like going out to desert. The further you go out the hotter and harsher environment and once its too dangerous for you its not enough to stop going forward, but you need to walk all the way back home before you are safe.

The CO2 and others are in the air already causing all weather changes, its not enough to go carbon neutral to stop it. To survive we need to go significantly negative to cut out greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere.

And that the biggest problem.
Look up : outbox pattern
A Chinese firm is producing servers and PCS with Huawei chips
I wonder if they separate the for profit and non-profit mergers what they would find.

For profit (in my exe) has always been lower quality.
Another example is Jaws: the mechanical shark didn't work very well, so Spielberg had to rely on the human characters and dialogue, a fin above the water, shark-eye-view shots, and John Williams' classic score. Based on what little we saw of the actual prop, the result elevated the film above what might have easily been a laughable B-movie.
Hi,

Do you have a timezone requirement for remote applicants?
Does PHP modify code client side like Javascript?

IMO this is the inherent difficulty with Javascript. I would prefer that you have the "source code" as two separate things: the hard details of the page and the code to manipulate behaviour.

This [1] current HN front page link would illustrate what I mean. You have a colour palette (hard details) and the behaviour (code to plot the colour palette). Of course this is a simplification, but it shows the way of thinking and the way of optimising use of code and space.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21937607
I can't figure out if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me. If you do non-penalized regression on raw data, then the t statstic will be approximately Gaussian, even if the raw data is bimodal. This follows from the CLT.
That's Emacs itself. It supports tiling in myriad forms.
Don't talk about fairy tales with us intellectuals
This Union Defeated Airbnb. Now It’s Taking Aim at a New Target
Well some people, including the young me, would send steaks with spices and sauces back. I liked them thick, bloody and without anything. Somehow I always thought that most cooks put way too much salt on really good meat so I asked, in restaurants as (annoying) little boy, to leave the salt and spices and would send it back if it had any. It was a short phase I guess. Now I find it boring.

But you are right; you can make exciting food with mostly anything. Even, god forbid, veggies! (seems that angry meat eaters are also dead against anything that resembles a vegetable; they eat the steak, leave everything else on the plate).
Top highest paid Premier League managers 2020
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No, Trump doesn’t want war.

Nobody actually wants war.

Go study up on the tanker wars and what Iran has done to the world economy in the past.

We’ve been in the gulf for decades, doing what our Navy does best - keeping peace.
Vista.
Nvidia Ampere Purportedly 50% Faster Than Turing at Half the Power Consumption
Not everyone can afford the price raise. Firms in developed countries would be hurt if consumption decreases due to the price raise so who’s going to support this policy?
Gosocials Reviews
The people of North Sentinel Island will likely suffer the least as they are not connected to any market.

If you specifically want a country then, perhaps some nation in Micronesia or Polynesia?