skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The text "sign in" seems to have appeared in 2005: https://youtu.be/LZ46uE267Nc?t=41
> China will have huge social reform in favor of citizens

What is your rational? All the current signs showed the opposite tendency. On my first thought, I'd say it's the Cold War that is coming, not any social reform.

But on second thought, there are indeed possibilities, if you follow the argument, that lead to a social reform in favor of citizens, is either (1) The state believes the nation is powerful enough (in terms of politics, economy and culture) so the rulers can launch reforms without threatening their own powers, or (2) The current political-economic system is unsustainable, reforms must be done.

Both are possible, but I'm still in favor for the prediction of an upcoming Cold War, or at least an intensified international conflict.

> Blocking ADs in browser will not be possible anymore.

It's possible.

> Oracle buys IBM

Let's hope for the best.
What happens if the process dies while processing a job? Is said job going to remain locked and unserviced until the end of times?
Completely agree.

Google made a half-hearted show of flouting preexisting Chinese authoritarianism only to backtrack shortly thereafter when the cameras were off and the press/government had moved on.

An interesting point of comparison is Facebook of all things. For all of their faults, Facebook could not come to an agreement with the CCP respecting expression and human rights, and so chose to not do business in China. Yet in mainstream sources, the vitriol directed at Facebook is quite a bit more intense than that directed at Google. (And a lot of the hate directed at Facebook is frankly laughable compared to what Google has done.)

I don't even use Facebook (although I'd say I'm paranoid about both companies), but at least Zuckerberg &co. have some skin in the game when standing for their values.

(Almost as much skin in the game as those WhatsApp folks who sacrificed over a gigabuck over their disillusionment at what Facebook were doing to their creation.)

Other thought: the author is either extremely cynical/manipulative for writing a seemingly earnest polemic against Google in order to garner sympathy from the public, or he's genuinely a true believer who is a bit naive and would get steamrolled upon entering the US Senate.
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Sounds exactly like running in circles...
> So 3 is confused because it seems you think mobility has generally increase in recent decades.

I couldn't find any worthwhile resource in ten seconds worth of searching (and I didn't remember the phrase "GINI coefficient"), so rather than risk having people accuse me of irrepressible fatalism I just wrote "stagnates" rather than suggesting any sort of more precipitous fall. :P

> By eco-terrorism do you mean sabotage of fossil-fuel infra?

Although sabotaging oil pipelines sure sounds both more effective and more plausible, I admit that in my mind I was more picturing roving teenage bicycle gangs riding around slashing car tires and breaking windshields (oh, and there was also that story today about criminal gangs in China extorting pig farmers via drones with swine-fever-laced payloads... it's easy to imagine that being repurposed to deliberately decimate industrial meat production).
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> (ChromeOS will grow slowly, then rapidly gaining share amongst certain market segments) Wrong.

I don't know about that. ChromeOS did grow slowly, and has gained significant share of the entire US education space (K-12). Yeah, it's a niche market. But I think that fits the for "certain market segments" qualifier.

> (Virtual worlds will remain niche, but WoW will pass 20 million users, a Facebook-like game or similar will pass 200 million users) Wrong.

This is technically wrong, but in-spirit correct. Virtual worlds / MMO games did get the traction claimed, just not WoW specifically. (The MMORPG FF14 Online has ~20 million users, MMO Warframe has 50 million registered users, 'facebook-game' Farmville has 73 million users, and 'or similar game' Fortnite has 250 million registered users). Minecraft holds similar numbers.

And while WoW itself never quite hit those numbers, a different game from the same studio did. Blizzard's Hearthstone has over 100 million registered users today.
Maybe I am the only one feeling this way? These drone shows are just silly elementary level computer visual arts with a huge size.

Fireworks are visually way way better than these, and more creative, more exciting and holiday-ish.
Are you talking about the article? Because the people creating the emojis clearly didn't spend a lot of time checking that the scissors would actually work, which it seems like you'd approve of.

The article itself isn't so much "the industry" as a blogger just trying to write something amusing.
Here's my ass-bag of predictions.

1. Sharing economy remains strong, but investors (at least in uber/lyft possibly others) are disappointed as it isn't possible to maintain monopoly. Multi-sided markets expand into more sectors as platforms and apps become understood as infrastructure.

2. Companies providing engaging private small-group social media experiences (along the lines of signal, whatsapp groups) are really important to most people. This is also somewhat disappointing to investors as this kind of activity is difficult to monetize and local networks are easy to transport from app to app.

3. Major social network platforms become increasingly controlled spaces as the "open internet" becomes a sea of disinformation. Most people instead turn to regulated enclaves with barriers to entry and strict moderation.

4. AR / VR aren't adopted in widespread ways by consumers. VR is popular among gamers and AR has some use in specialized work environments such as military, factory, and warehouses.

5. The world succeeds at preventing some of the worst ecological consequences of climate change, and transitions to a sustainable green economy by way of economic contraction, increased efficiency, and limited carbon capture technologies (i.e. conversion to biomass) but fail to keep warming below a 2⁰C level. Mass migrations out of equatorial regions are a huge geopolitical problem and the source of much violence. Eco-fascism is a significant political ideology that limits the ability of developed nations to admit refugees.

6. (this is my stretch and my own vision) Online communities learn from the example of Wikipedia how to self-organize to create valuable goods. Many productive online communities will be relatively closed and occupy a similar niche to corporations or cooperatives and exist for the economic opportunities provided to their members.
You could actually end up wasting more money if you get "alignment". Thats why things take a shit ton of time for the most part.
That does seem better -- but a cat walks on four legs, it's already pretty stable. A vertical animal is going to take more force to counterbalance.

I realize weight can be traded off for length -- but the longer it is, the more they'll have to worry about the tail knocking into adjacent stuff, particularly the sensitive bits of nearby short people.

Maybe it's actually lighter than it looks. Particularly if it were only designed to counter small imbalances, it could be pretty lightweight.
Discussed at the time: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9714695
Stoicism versus Jordan Peterson on Anger
> First, any given trip alleviates depression for about a month or two.

That's why they are trying to turn it into therapy instead of advising sick people to experiment wildly.

They know there's an effect, now they know it's safe. What's left to establish is what's the most efficient protocol for using it.
- Phytoplankton decline accelerates, creating a cascading food crisis compounded by overfishing.

- Antibiotic resistance becomes more prominent.

- Some major underground aquifers around the world start drying up.
It took me a while of hearing every single story of a colleague or friend who went to HR to point out a problem with the company being moved out of the company to realize that HR was not your friend, or your advocate. Their only concern was keeping the company from being successfully sued. All of their activities speak to that mandate.

The only way you fix something like this at the executive level is to develop leverage on another executive who can change things and then using that to make them do so.

It is sad. It is wrong. It is dysfunctional. But as far as I can tell the only people that survive these sorts of things are the ones that "play dirty."

Personally, I value my integrity over this kind of gamesmanship and just move on to some other company when I can.
My predictions, not as grand as some others, but anyways!

Software Engineering / Startups:

- FAANG will be continue to provide the best monetary compensation, that no startup can beat. However, there will be a few startups that will figure out something to attract the best-of-the-best. Similar to how Google figured out how to do it in the early 2000s. I thought maybe something bitcoin would have been it, in 2010s, but I don't think that's come to pass yet. These companies will become HUGE, bigger than Google by 2040.

- UI development in the browser and browser based technologies will be dominated by one framework, and we will stop seeing new frameworks every other month. Think Qt but with web technologies. Performance afforded by native applications will still not be a priority for all but the biggest apps.

- Java will continue to be dominant in terms of market share, and JVM will be continue to be huge on the server side. In fact, Java will supersede Scala and Kotlin in terms of the most important features. As in it will have the best parts of both the languages, but designed better.

- There will be huge progress in developer tooling for machine learning. Just as how you can do `npm install`, run docker containers, and virtual machines very well, without knowing anything about how it works, you will be able to train and use "good enough" models without knowing how machine learning works. AutoML is just the start, I'm thinking the stereotypical 17 year old hacker who gets into JavaScript today as their first technology, will instead be getting into Machine Learning based stuff by 2030. Recruiters will be surprised if you've not been exposed to it in the past year, regardless of your background.

- People will continue complaining about agile, product management etc. :)

Stuff I have no idea about, but here it goes:

- The current world is fairly divided and fragile and changing. It's been a long time (> 75 years) since there has been a big crisis. By the beginning of 2030, we will start to see the sparks of another crisis. It may either be the biggest global recession ever, or something worse.

India related:

- The government in power will continue to be nationalist through this decade (though not necessarily the current party / leaders), however more secular than it is right now.

- There will be at least one startup from India whose product will be used widely around the world.

- There will be economic and infrastructural gains, but by the end of the decade, it will still feel meh.

- At least one place in India will get hit very, very hard by something caused due to climate change.
While we still can decide on that let's call it FADANG instead?
Pulsar wouldn't be the thing that stores the view, it would be the canonical data store used to rebuild the views.

The idea is you have an event sourced view and can rebuilt it at any time by resetting the stream pointer to the beginning.
The world will get weirder. Convincing audio and video faking technology will make it incredibly easy to pervert and twist any public figure. This will only make it easier to spread conspiracies. Assassinations or other forms of domestic terrorism may happen as a result.

People won't do shit about global warming, at least for the first 5 years. The Middle East will get increasingly unstable as heat increases and arable land becomes sparse. Cities like Dubai will become less and less appealing, especially as the rich move away. A major disaster in the Global South will happen, causing millions of deaths but only handwringing and prayers in the west.

More female directors and hopefully a new wave of sorts as people realize that films can be made for so cheap (seriously people read your Truffaut). Distribution will get easier, yet still fragmented.

William Gibson will be right, perhaps more in terms of zeitgeist than actual details.
JavaScript is quite a bit faster than Ruby in most cases.
It's important to note that this guy isn't just a top general: He's basically the guy responsible for Iran's foreign policy. It would be like an Iranian airstrike taking out the likes of Dick Cheney during the Bush years.
SEEKING INVESTMENT | Greater Seattle Area | ML, MUSIC

Project or startup: Music streaming service with AI-generated music and lyrics

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- $180,000 for 1y salary for R&D

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Team: just myself, software engineer with ML background

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Some preliminary work: Google showed neural networks can be used to generate music in MIDI format ( https://magenta.tensorflow.org/ ),
own project shows GPT-2 can generate song lyrics ( http://billion.dev.losttech.software:2095/ , based on the initial small 117M GPT-2 release ).
MIDI format supports lyrics tracks, so the two can be combined, producing karaoke-like experience.
There are also singing voice synthesizers on the market, which could be used to automatically generate song recordings.
Alternatively, real performers could record tracks.
>enjoy myself on 64-bit MC68080 which gets faster and faster with every accelerator update.

Note that Apollo Core isn't OSHW, so you won't be synthesizing that one.
Might this keep people upright when they're wearing it but simultaneously worsen their balancing skills when they're not using it?
well after today's news I'm going with war
- Remote work will become the norm (especially in software engineering), along with contracting/freelancing (the "gig economy"). Subletting (eg. on AirBnB) will become the norm as the younger generation shuns home ownership and even 1 year rental contracts in favor of short-term and month-to-month. Being a "digital nomad" will become more mainstream as the young escape the corporate rat race and overpriced overcongested cities for greener pastures. Digital nomads will further flock to all the remaining cheap cost of living cities/countries just like they've already done to places like Bali.

- "No-code" tools will become the norm for app development. Developers won't be hand-coding much HTML/CSS anymore, WYSIWYG editors will have evolved to a point where they are acceptable and standard practice.

- Most web application development will be done with dead simple full-stack Javascript frameworks that automate all the repetitive CRUD operations (eg. in the spirit of feathersjs or meteorjs). No more separate frontend state management systems like Redux, state management will automatically integrate with and fetch from the backend (eg. like apollo GraphQL, but simpler to use). No more wrestling with 100 different JS libraries, webpack configs, routers, state management libraries, etc to set up a basic hello world website - frameworks with the simplicity of something like Next.js will be the standard.

- Politically the hot topic of the decade will be wealth inequality. Universal Basic Income will be implemented in some countries, and maybe some form of a job guarantee. The U.S. will finally get universal healthcare, partial cancellation of student loan debt, and other progressive policies as wealth inequality and the anger of poor people reaches its tipping point and the older generation holding back progressive policies retire from politics and die out. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) will become more mainstream as people realize that debt denominated in one's own currency is not the same thing as household debt. Land value tax and Georgism will enter the debate.

- Self-driving trucks and cars will be normal

- Drone delivery will be normal

- AI passes the Turing Test

- We'll see an increasing movement against materialism, unfettered capitalism, "flex culture", and competition, and more of a movement towards cooperation, empathy, compassion, solving poverty, and living a life of meaning. Tech millionaires in San Francisco will finally think "ok what the hell has this city become? Why are there homeless people and human feces everywhere? Time to clean this damn place up." Right now being rich is considered cool even if you're an airhead who only films stupid vlogs flexing your Gucci merch. In 2030, people will care less about how much money you have and more about what you're actually contributing to humanity.
> Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight.

> No major job losses due to AI automation

First off, #2 is really 2 predictions. 1) No AGI 2) No major job loss due to AI automation. There can be job loss due to automation without AGI (which I'm EXTREMELY bearish on AGI, bearish for the century actually).

Second, here's a scenario I think we could see job loss due to autonomous vehicles. Trucking. If we get level 3. We're defining level 3 as

> In the right conditions, the car can manage most aspects of driving, including monitoring the environment. The system prompts the driver to intervene when it encounters a scenario it can’t navigate. Driver involvement: The driver must be available to take over at any time.

I see this as near tech and could cause disruption. We already have level 2. If regulations change, then I could see job loss.

Or another scenario. Let's say that trucks are level 4 on highways in clear conditions, level 2 in cities, and level 1 in bad conditions. Regulations could change so that a driver could "drive" for longer hours and even sleep given that trucks are driving in clear conditions, automatically pulling over to the side of the road/sounding an alarm/slowing down when conditions are deemed unsuitable (with a low threshold). Such a situation seems near possible with current tech and have the potential to disrupt the market. Knowing if that's going to create more drivers or less drivers is harder to say.

I'm also bearish on level 4/5 vehicles in the next decade, but I'm not bearish on driving staying the same within the next decade. Especially as we see more cars becoming level 2. I am bullish on disruption here, including regulation. Though I'm not going to try to define what the disruption is, other than increased safety (which is pretty huge).

I'm not bullish on AI causing major job loss, but I am bullish on automation (not necessarily %s/AI/ML/g) creating disruption. In fact, I think we're already seeing this. And I want to be clear, I don't think we need ML to automate things. We've done a lot of automation already without it. I think COTs electronics becoming cheaper is the bigger driving force to that along with consumer preferences of using digital systems (Amazon vs store, self checkout vs cashier, movie ticket touch screens vs box office, etc).
I don't think this claim is true. And "Most" is not enough. "Nearly all" is required to eliminate a market for alternative.
In your house building analogy, you've got a leg up on the medicine-industrial complex by being able to get a value for X up-front.
Where'd you go after that then?
Couldn't agree more. His two books are also phenomenal [1]. If anything, worth getting a copy just to support his amazing work.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Fabien-Sanglard/e/B075Q5W35H
An entomologist rates ant emojis: https://curlicuecal.tumblr.com/post/175362924100/an-entomolo...
I found it odd that the OP included AGI and job loss in a single point. COTs electronics becoming cheaper is a big driver to automation. ML not required.
If only we had been that lucky.
Sounds like zeromq to me
Going from history there’s going to be a lot of democrats hand wringing about “process” but the Democrats and the media will still fall in behind an escalation to war. They’re already doing it. Media are already unquestionably repeating claims of the pentagon that Suleimani was planning attacks. Calls against war will be called unpatriotic and largely silenced. This feels quite scary. I was hoping for an eventual end to war.
never had issues
'You can't do a damn thing!' Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah

I guess that wasn’t true then huh?
Your Kindle is broken. Mine lasts for months on a charge.
// Aside: If this kind of stuff bugs folks enough to want to help change the whole industry, come work with us. Rethink and build better workflows to “do it right” for customers of a global bank.