skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
• Bay Area real estate will drop

• At least one tech giant will be broken up due to antitrust proceedings. Privacy legislation will dramatically increase

• Data blackmarkets will grow substantially. (Now they are just known as markets)

• The deep web will grow, as more legitimate businesses move there to prevent censorship from other companies. Investigative journalists will also flock to the deep web for the same reasons, and for reasons of physical safety

• WebAssembly will grow, creating competition that will usurp javascript's market share

• A wasm-based framework will become popular and power cross-platform native apps

• YC companies will reach $1T aggregate in value
Not really, even if you have optimal rocket fuel, you still have huge fuel demands: http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Relativity/SR/Rocket/r...
One more:

1. The advent of an artificial womb will toss a wrench in the abortion debate
This.

We let our kids watch our phones sometimes in public, and when we take them away they get sometimes get grumpy. But that’s nothing compared to how my kid lost his sh1t tonight when I told him I wouldn’t sing him jingle bells because it was past his bed time. You would have thought I put all his toys in a fire.

This really just reminds me of how people only notice when kids go off the hook and don’t notice when they behave. My (maybe incorrect) guess is the person at the DMV doesn’t have kids.
Unlikely that it is for training. There are enough remote military bases where the training could be done without alarming locals.
If the UX is as good as intercom, this would sell like hot cakes. I just hope there's a flat price for it.
All the best!
For anyone who wants more background on Suleimani, this New Yorker piece [0] about him from 2013 is detailed and interesting.

A quick excerpt, if you don't have time for it all:

Suleimani took command of the Quds Force fifteen years ago, and in that time he has sought to reshape the Middle East in Iran’s favor, working as a power broker and as a military force: assassinating rivals, arming allies, and, for most of a decade, directing a network of militant groups that killed hundreds of Americans in Iraq. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has sanctioned Suleimani for his role in supporting the Assad regime, and for abetting terrorism. And yet he has remained mostly invisible to the outside world, even as he runs agents and directs operations. “Suleimani is the single most powerful operative in the Middle East today,” John Maguire, a former C.I.A. officer in Iraq, told me, “and no one’s ever heard of him.”

[0] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-com...
Or just use the Alpine Butterfly. Stronger, easy to tie, optionally asymmetric, usable as a loop or a bend, quite secure (slightly less so than Ashley's #1452 but still quite good), and non-jamming (unlike the figure 8).
The world is a better place today.
Roadster was an extremely niche car for millionaires. Spacex had yet to have a successful launch I believe. So while not a crazy prediction, still impressive that I doubt many people who have bet on
Fun, heh.

It does look like it would have a tendency to jam and be hard to untie. One of the key points of a good knot is that it be easily untied once the strain has been removed.
- USA experiences a massive moral alignment, much like Victorian England. A number of things considered normal in 2020 will be "immoral" and illegal, much like how swearing on TV was illegal in the 1970s

- This new morality, invented almost whole cloth with very little taken from religions, will cause widespread unrest in heavily religious areas

- Civil war happens as major coastal cities with new morality laws grow more distant from the central plains population
Oh, did any caps blow? There were some counterfeit ones going around some time ago...
I predict by 2029 Hacker News will be overrun with AI bots and nobody will be to identify them.
“African swine fever affects members of the pig family. There is no evidence that ASFV infects humans.” Via http://www.cfsph.iastate.edu/Factsheets/pdfs/african_swine_f...
Some context here:

This guy was directly responsible for hundreds (maybe over 1,000) U.S. Soldiers killed in Iraq by shaped charge IEDs manufactured by Iran and its Iraqi proxies. He also orchestrated clandestine raids and kidnappings, like the one that happened in Karbala in 2007. [0]

He was also responsible for the deaths of untold numbers of civilians in Iraq and Syria at the hands of Shia death squads and Shia militias/paramilitary forces. These are people who kidnapped innocent Sunni civilians off the streets and drilled holes through their skulls to kill them. (Sorry for the graphic description there, but this was ugly war)

He was in charge of the Quds Force, which is like the American CIA and Special Forces Command combined. But, he’s far more important than his Major General (2-star) rank implies. He’s probably the second-most powerful person in Iran. Equivalent in strength to a Vice President, but much more behind the scenes. This is huge. Imagine if David Petraeus secretly ran everything that the US did externally and then some nation killed him.

More context here: https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1212913366492016640

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karbala_provincial_headquarter...
Uber Completes Acquisition of Careem
I think the problem with never-ending healthcare costs is that it isn’t run enough like a business. Any normal business decreases costs to survive. It appears healthcare is at 20% of GDP and rising forever.
1. This will be the decade of compact hospital-grade health and bio-Informatics devices being brought into the home and personal life. Think Startrek tricorder capability but in a (likely) larger package.

2. Deep fakes will precipitate the need for digitally signed media. This likely means further reliance on root-of-trust systems like x509 certificates or some new international body designed to issue a new form of lightweight signing mechanism that works at low resolutions/low bandwidth.

3. Continued climate change will result in at-least one major U.S. city losing population due to feasibility/costs of providing either clean water or breathable air.<br><br> 4. China and Russia will split their version of the internet entirely apart from the traditional internet and will sell products and services to other countries to do the same (I.e. Iran).

5. The era of horizontal drilling and fracking for ultra-cheap gas and oil will slowly wind down and energy costs will increase to 2000’s era costs.

6. Most ominously: this might be the first decade where we see large scale orchestrated micro-drone attacks (death by a thousand paper cuts) and autonomous vehicles being used for delivery of some kind of malicious purpose (I.e. explosive delivery).

7. Massive inflation globally during 2010/early 2020’s will result in stagflation in the U.S. and other countries.
> The majority of programming today is not functional at all.

That's probably true.

> I think there is little chance FP will become mainstream

That's demonstrably not, as React has basically gone full FP. I would argue that the majority of bootcamp students are now taught functional programming.
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Show HN: Generate names like Snapchat, Evernote, PayPal for your next project
its interesting in that, you can happily hurl big rocks at people in castles via catapults while being unable to see what /who you're hitting and be perfectly safe, yet you might not (I know i dont) have an issue with it like you (and I) do with drones...

its basically the same thing. just an upscale in range, and really safe distance is safe distance... doesn't really change the situation when you add more 00's to the distance.
wow that is very similar indeed. I suppose the advantage of mine is having no requirement for GnuPG but that solution is quite impressive
One big disadvantage with Visual Basic (and similar visual form designers) is that you can't put the result in version control and diff or merge it in any meaningful way.
Collateral Murder was disturbing in the enthusiasm by the soldiers for what is a grainy video. I wonder if WWII bombardiers when looking down and seeing miniature sized vehicles and buildings were as enthusiastic as well.

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/July_12,_2007_Baghdad_airstri...

Amusingly, the video starts with Wikileaks decrypted the video, but all drone feeds are unencrypted.
we're not really quite there yet. Give another 10 years.
Re: DAWs .... rendering a physically modelled synthetic orchestra, let's say, 50 players, would probably tax even my current Threadripper system. It has a cooling system the size of ... let's be polite and say two very large coffee mugs.

Remind me again how you're going to do this on something other than "the desktop"?

Oh, and don't think about offloading it to the cloud. It's going to be on the order of 100GB of data when finished.

Oh, and did I mention that in 2020, I'm going to be conducting this thing in realtime (or some ML-based agent will be) ...
I feel this way about a lot of television shows.

Heroes is a great example. The first seasons was amazing, the 2nd season was hot garbage. They had no idea what made the first season so great.
Two simple rules -

1. Don't act immediately (no matter how urgent matter seems to be).

2. When in doubt, check with someone you trust (and first reaction should be 'doubt').

Beyond that, any of following are worthy of being flagged as scam automatically -

1. Call/email from IRS or any other government agency

2. Easy money offers

3. (unfortunately) Anyone asking for help, specifically involving money, that too urgently

4. Anyone asking for password, SSN, financial record acess

Bottomline is that in online world, start point should be doubt followed by questions which help build your trust.
Excellent analysis. That’s like 2% or less of households in the US? So even at the Zip9 level not ideal for identifying specific households but problematic if you’re one of those 2M Zip9s.
Is the entire entertainment industry a waste of time? Some people create things for their own and other's enjoyment even though it has no "practical" use.
For iOS at least you don’t need two factor to access find my phone
Why Are You Publicly Sharing Your Child’s DNA Information?
Every tool has it’s appropriate use - there is a middle way.

I sleep well, eat well, exercise, occasionally micro-dose, and if my brain gets in a really bad place I’ll do a huge reset trip. I’ve been doing this for 10 years and I’m the happiest I’ve ever been.

Temet Nosce - Know Thyself
That was a mistake. Criminals now very purposely run off with just shy of $950. Theft is way up in California.

Meanwhile, in Texas you'd just shoot the laptop thief, either as soon as aware of the imminent theft or as the thief flees. It's fully supported by the law:

https://lawofselfdefense.com/statute/texas-sec-9-42-deadly-f...

Law enforcement in many communities would congratulate you for a job well done.
It's interesting to see the impact that having the developer tools open has on performance, and whether the network tab is being shown or not. While HTTP2 is generally faster for me, opening the developer tools makes both significantly slower, and seems to have a larger impact on HTTP2, usually making it slower than 1.1, in both Firefox and Chrome.
Re: 5 this is already true. Either you don't know this or you mean something more subtle.
But was it by accident? They had a template to work from. The original idea behind Digg was to fix what Kevin perceived was broken with Slashdot. They did that. Mission accomplished. Could have been a fine small/lifestyle business for years. Taking VC cash and everything that necessarily followed was what killed them.
Payers (insurers) are increasingly acquiring provider organizations as a cost control measure. The industry is gradually converging on the Kaiser Permanente business model.
Another World was so far ahead of it's time. I have such find memories of playing it on my brother's Amiga :)

It's also just a lovely piece of art.
There are many reports coming out that this was faked. People who were there posting videos of waiting for the show, and then nothing happening. I believe it as some of the animations look a bit too fast or precise to be done by real drones.
The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time
> You realistically can't use Signal without an Apple ID

I do, because I got it and signed up for an account on my Android phone...

Okay, I realize what you're getting at here, but it seriously irks me when people talk as if Apple was the only ecosystem, or even the most popular ecosystem, when it is neither.

I probably don't even need a Google Play Store account if I can find an unmodified APK that's signed by OWS.
I don't know a lot about trains in particular, but mechanical technology was advancing very rapidly during this period. It's roughly when the mass production of interchangeable machine parts started to take off. Singer (sewing machines) and Colt (revolvers) are two notable examples.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_system_of_manufacturi...
imho, the author's being disingenuous when describing the cringeworthy diversity exercises.

The point of those exercises is to make you cringe at name-calling and stereotyping. To take the thoughts out of peoples' minds and put them in ether so all can see how cringey these labels are.
> Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp.

Who's scalp was it? I don't know any politician who has been taken to task over network analysis and data mining. Fore sure not Obama, whose staffers have quietly chortled that they did far worse than Cambridge Analytica ever did. Definitely not Trump, his numbers are as even as they haev ever been. Maybe Zuckerberg? But he's still CEO of his company.
Apple agreed to acquire NeXT and its technology in order to bring back Jobs, when Apple was on the cusp of bankruptcy, was absolutely certain to die, and had no negotiating power. It wasn't a merger.

Also modern Apple devices are based on the NeXT's operating system and have nothing other than cosmetic and emulative compatibility with MacOS. OSX/macOS is NeXTStep on top of Mach.

source: bought $100,000 of APPL in 1997.
Yes!!! I live for these completely pointless obsessions into a topic.
Do load balancers and reverse proxies play well with websockets?
Let's pay them all $200k/yr. That's $10,000,000m a year. Inflation adjusted, compared to the capital investments of the giants of the roaring 20s, this is pretty small if not irrelevant. Even if you double it to cover payroll tax and other expenses, it's still going to move the needle.
Fair, but OP (DanielBMarkham) was only 2 days off on his prediction that "major changes will happen in Iran."
> I'm not sure he ever got around to explaining how it saved "half a million dollars", though.

Me either. TL;DR. I did skim enough to get to the one-character change, and I instantly knew what the issue was: they were using Java. Ok, ok, just kidding, yes, pre-allocating what you're not going to need is premature optimization -- don't do it, except when it pays off.
> D-Bus is not part of the problem

Only in the sense that the bluetooth maintainers never completed the port to D-Bus. So, 25% of what you need to do with bluetooth needs to be done via kernel anyway.

Bluetooth on Linux is a prime example of how open source can fail.
Point taken, though i would argue that somewhat-blindly hurling rocks at walls is materially different from intentionally ending a specific life from across the world.
> "I believe your cynicism has sliced off only a portion of the truth here and tilted focus in the wrong directions."

I think his cynicism is completely warranted considering how many people are starting to view psychedelics as a panacea.

Do psychedelics offer an experience that could be part of, or even a spark a greater shift? Sure.

Could psychedelics provide temporary relief from things like depression and anxiety? Sure.

Do most people approach things that are talked about as a solution to life's most difficult problems in a moderate way? Very rarely.

Are there VERY REAL and SIGNIFICANT downsides to the misuse of psychedelics? Absolutely. Bad trips are very real and with real, long-term consequences.

From my experience with these substances and from my observations of many people who have also used them, I think we should approach the subject from a cautious point of view at the very least. We can throw around studies all we want, but as you pointed out, these are almost all done in a CLINICAL SETTING which is probably the most relevant aspect to the outcome of psychedelic experiences.
>For older users, you're stuck with whatever was current in the software version they ran five, ten, twenty years ago.

GPG2 doesn't support V3 keys anymore so old keys just won't work. That point is fairly moot in that pretty much all the ancient encryption is still unbroken.
I wonder if sound from these 2k drones was deafening.
Thanks for writing these stories up - great examples of how the earlier days were the wild west - we were all code cowboys, and it all lead to spectacular failures at times.
Preallocating space you won't need is premature optimization. I think that's what TFA meant to say, and maybe even said it, who knows.
May we live in interesting times.
I agree with your comment, I'm not disagreeing with you. Just offering a story I thought was interesting on a recovery technique that works in theory.

I read an article many years ago (I don't have a link but if you're interested google might find it) before ssd's were mainstream. They took a hdd and did one pass of overwriting it with /dev/zero.

Then they contacted some data recovery companies, told them they accidentally blanked the hdd with one pass, and ask for a quote to retrieve the data.

None of them had any interest in giving a quote or trying to recover the data even though in theory it could be recovered with a microscope or however they do it.

As you said, there are a 1000 more mundane ways that would be cheaper and more reliable than deep freeze.
Have Google and Bing Gotten Better at Answering Questions? Zedah's Test Queries
The knot I use most frequently is the taut-line hitch. This is an adjustable loop knot that holds its position under tension. It works well with the trucker's hitch or to set up tents and other temporary tension rigging.

For joining two lines, I like the Zeppelin hitch.
Has there really been only one big thread? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6784085

Edit: well, there's also this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7836410

Can anybody track down the year this was written?
This is also a very popular knot reference, although limited to shoelaces: https://www.fieggen.com/shoelace/index.htm
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Good concept I think it could be improved by running the given word through a thesaurus rather than just adding prefixes and suffixes.
I can see the web being driven into the ground in the next few decades, ever increasing complexity, more extreme hardware requirements for a bit of text on a page, it's already in a silly state, after another decade of this something needs to snap.
> Aren't we supposed to need congressional approval to start a war?

Not for the last few decades, no.
In other words, they provide basecamps for panhandlers.

Installations up and down 7th Ave or Broadway, for instance, are typically abutted by a kind of cardboard picnic blanket spread, covered with makeshift bags of belongings along with the pan handler’s signage and pan.

The mendicant roosts there with tablet and phone plugged in for juice, watching YouTube played over the WiFi.

Some stores have taken to piling the day’s trash bags around the base instead, before someone posts up.

I’m curious who thought these wouldn’t turn out co-opted by panhandlers camping or as a pole to pile refuse around — I’m not sure which setup is a less appetizing context for advertising!
When reading this, compare also Smith's writing style - fast-paced and rarely even pausing to slow down - with older, more plodding SF styles. Verne could go for pages listing fish species or minutia of scientific apparatus. Wells was more ponderous, with Significant Questions about Man.

A couple of comments:

""What's happened, Doctah?" asked the dusky assistant. ... Here he lived alone save for an old colored couple who were his servants. ... the colored man who had been secured to take his place"

The lovely systemic racism of the era.

"If it were done instantaneously it would probably blow the entire world into a vapor, and might force it clear out of its orbit"

That didn't seem right at all, so I worked it out: 100 lbs of copper, assuming pure antimatter, is equivalent to a gigaton of TNT, or about 20 Tsar Bomba explosions.

"I gather that an ounce or so will be plenty. ... Ten thousand tons of nitroglycerin"

60 megatons, according to the earlier estimate.
Pipelining has been removed. Sadness.
Predictions for various walks of life:

Health

- health devices become mandatory and data from devices dictates the cost of health insurance and care

Transportation

- Electric vehicles would become the norm
- All manufacturers stop making gas based vehicles
- Autonomous vehicles capture 50% of Goods transportation market
- Multiple metro cities worldwide have autonomous taxis

Education

- Master's level education becomes mandatory for any type of job
- pay after getting job grows adaptation

Entertainment

- number of movie theaters close down
- virtual reality becomes a core part of entertainment

Energy

- Solar, Wind and Hydro will surpass other sources
- More and more countries would adopt Denmark/ Norway model
- Energy companies would start to replace Tech in terms of richness
I remember the days when mr babyman and friends controlled the digg front page and all the drama that followed. It was a perfect example of an over aggressive parasite killing the host. Reddit solved it by creating sub-reddits. HN solved it with clear rules and diligent mod work.
PRC (and many other countries, western allies included) depends on Hormuz security for oil, US doesn't need ME oil anymore thanks to domestic shale. This maybe hobble China in the short-term, but it will take the rest of the world with it.
Regarding 1., what do you think will be the selling point of this transition? There is very little that hospital monitoring devices can offer to the average person (do you need a daily ECG / EKG?)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21922709
I’m optimistic about Elm or something like Elm that represents a minimal core of today’s emerging best practices (virtual DOM, static types, functional core & imperative shell) while cutting off the fat (mutability, type coercion) and providing valuable affordances and guarantees (educational compiler messages, no runtime exceptions.)
I changed my Python and made it dubious