skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
* 2022 Google goes the way of FB in terms of press.

* 2023 Apple re-enters the social media market (leveraging iMessage)

* 2023 FB starts placing ads on external websites, eating into Google's market

* 2024 Amazon's commingling strategy and federated approach to "sellers" & "shippers" turns against it, making room for another major player to enter the market by focusing on quality.

* 2024 Comcast stops trying to push their TV service with Internet packages

* 2024 Y-Combinator adopts a syndicate system (similar to Angel List)

* 2025 A universal flu vaccine is universally available

* 2026 Alexa is now seen as the Hyundai of assistants. Google is Mercedes. Siri is Tata.

* 2026 Online ads revolution - a new format of ads, cleaner, more precise/focused, less intrusive (but more efficient) takes over.

* 2027 FB market cap overtakes Google & Apple

* 2027 Google launches a human-like virtual assistant that can handle everything a human can.

* 2028 China walls off even more of the internet.

* Around 2029 a new category of wearables appears. Not mainstream yet, but very promising, turning current interaction paradigms on their head. Google is a major partner, but not a leader of this.

* 2029 WiFi is largely available for free in all public areas (including on a plane).
Yep, there's no way they'll be widespread, and for the limited places they are used, they'll have a human ready to grab the wheel. Largest users might be trucking companies. I think the hype will fade this decade without any fanfare as the reality becomes clearer.
The point was explained above, and you get it. Godot case demonstrates it more than clearly that having a common API is good for developers. You simply avoid admitting that lock-in is bad - all this talk about "IP" has no relevance to the issue.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21935155
https://github.com/systemed/tilemaker generates mapbox vector tiles from OSM, which you can serve static.
I saved an example config and usage to help get going https://github.com/ogre/tilemaker_config
Lol. These orgs are often defined by great games of empire building.

There’s no meaningful pay differential for senior staff, so ass-count is the measuring stick.
I don’t think it is much of a problem until you are pushing 2-3k jobs a second. Only the message saturation is a bottleneck anyhow, everything else I mentioned is handled by how a library is architected.
GNU grep 3.4
>I estimate generously that 50,000 of them are economically productive in the sense of producing something of value that can be 'exported' from this city.

I'm confused, are you saying that services don't have value? It feels like an artificial distinction to me, for example watching a movie at a theater vs buying/renting a movie both provide me similar value. Also, in a world of increasing automation and globalization # of people is perhaps not a great metric.

I'm not really sure if the economy is in as good of shape as it seems. At least here in the USA we're hitting an unprecedented period of economic growth; the Keynesian in me believes that policy has prevented at least one recession in the 2010s and led to real growth in the economy, but it's very possible we're just in for a bigger fall in the 2020s because of it.
Based on what technology? (Genuine question, I'm not following biotech too closely.)
- AI based systems will start to replace humans in the more mechanical parts of the legal system. Judging traffic court cases could be one example.

- One country will invade another country using computer/information attacks as the deciding strike, perhaps Russia invading one of the Eastern Bloc countries. People's mobile phones will simply tell them that there is some kind of natural disaster happening and that they should go home and seek shelter, while the invading country's forces quickly seize all key infrastructure. This will be a wakeup call to the world that if you can control the screens, you can control society.

- No real political progress will be made on solving/mitigating climate change. The worlds political systems will simply not be equipped to make the necessary decisions to reduce carbon emissions by enough to matter. People will become numb to the unfolding disaster and as such it won't lead to clicks/pageviews, so the media will stop covering it. The major disasters (large fires, storms, etc) that happen will receive coverage but be quickly forgotten, much like mass shootings today.

- New York and California will diminish in influence & power in the US. Wealthy people moving to other states will cause a fiscal death spiral as the state governments have to raise taxes to fund widening deficits. Austin will be regarded as a tier 1 city. Other inland states like Colorado & Arizona will also gain population and power.

- Another major hurricane will hit the northeastern US, it will be far worse than Hurricane Sandy.

- Steady improvements will be made in technological mitigations to climate change like carbon capture, and more efficient manufacturing and farming processes. It won't be enough to solve the problem but will provide some hope to eventually stop making the problem worse in the 2030s.

- Extremist political factions on the left and right in the US will continue to gain influence and power.

- Either SpaceX or Blue Origin will conduct a private, manned mission to the moon.
Nearly; we’re aiming to force on E2E by default at end of Jan (but it’s getting tight). There are at least 6 complete independent implementations, and once cross-signing lands it’s good to go. For clients/bots/bridges without E2E we have pantalaimon (a clientside daemon which you proxy all the traffic through in order to encrypt it).
Ok, so, "let harassers get away with it" is the correct answer? Surely not.
my prediction is we will see them in geo-fenced localities that have a much more controlled driving experience, and will not be available in consumer cars beyond Tesla-style "drive assistance", but instead will be fleets managed by companies like Uber.

I.e. self driving Ubers will be geo-fenced to suburban areas away from unpredictable city conditions, and used for local deliveries (think pizza, uber eats) and perhaps long-haul highway trucks (which pretty much drive straight for fifteen hours anyway).

Self driving in every consumer vehicle will be in the 2030s.
Have to be taught compassion and empathy? Like in re-education camps?

I hear your emotional plea, but I can’t find logic or rationality behind it.
Windows, Firefox, Ethernet (220mbps on fast.com):

https/2 is ~0.1s (1.02s /2 vs 1.11s /1.1) faster on first load and ~0.2s faster on future loads. I'm tempted to say there are diminishing returns as your internet gets faster (latency is ~11ms atm).
"Let's see Paul Allen's card.

Look at that subtle off-white coloring.

The tasteful thickness of it.

Oh, my God. It even has a watermark."
More info regarding Y-Combinator adopting a syndicate system?
I have fixed a ton of drives, in general. Board replacements, swapping platters, head swaps, etc.
Some takeaways:
I started doing this under tupperware, and that worked.
I built a "cleanroom" out of a new sandblasting cabinet, and that worked better. Later i built a laminar flow bench out of a cheap kobalt tool-box and some plexiglass, and that was better still.

Swapping the control boards works on some makes (wd), make certain it is exactly the same model and revision. exactly.
"close enough" never worked for me, not even once.

By far just a slight "spin" by hand along the axis of travel of the disk, a quick gentile flicking motion, works to unfreeze the spindles of most stuck drives.

Some drives responded to a gentle heating of the spindle bearing with the hot air.

Use dd_rescue.

"Spinrite" is complete horse-shit, don't listen to anyone saying otherwise.

Most drives people brought in were just corruptions,
photorec and it's associated programs (testdisk) are also invaluable..
> very few desktop applications will exist

Probably true for Windows and Mac. Meanwhile, Linux and BSD people will still be arguing GTK vs. Qt.
I'd say it needs to be pretty clean. Back in the day it was a thing to remove the hard-drive cover and replace it with plexiglass. Once densities got to around 100 GB (don't remember the specifics but somewhere around 100 */2) it turned out that noone was successful with even momentarily open the drive chassi without ruining some part of the platter due to dust.
The current system is too flat, it is not like Sundar can control that many SVP's alone. Instead you have SVP's managing SVP's etc. Who is there to put the foot down ? I'd be fine with it if there was a level above that who kept them in check.
One other thing to note, from a separate article. Is that this employee and others are under an organization/group/entity that self-labels as "Amazon Employees for Climate Justice".
Actually the number of lines per second is not constant, but the overall video BW is “similar”. In terms of analog TV, PAL has at the same time lower refresh rate and higher channel BW, which in terms of computer resolutions means that NTSC is exactly 640x480 (as that is derived from NTSC timing) while PAL is something like 800x600. Home computers for all the time where that class even existed simply didn’t have both the framebuffer sizes and video BW to generate full resolution video, so the resolutions ended up halved (and in analog TV there is no horizontal resolution to speak of, so 320 is just as good number as any)
Pigeons are awesome. They have an instinct to nest and love and be loved. It is cruel to do this for sport and profit.
GPS elevation data on a modern device with a sufficiently good view of the sky is often, but by no means guaranteed, to be a lot better than that. On a really cheap smartphone with GPS+GLONASS receive ability you can regularly see 12 to 14 satellites. The more satellites, the better the Z axis precision.

Anecdotally, when standing next to FCC licensed radio systems on roofs, which are supposed to have accurate license data in their database entries for height MSL and AGL, I have seen elevation data from my late-2019 vintage smartphone just as accurate as on a $5000 surveying GPS.

At least to within 2-3 meter Z axis of reality.
* Web media will continue to centralize. Populist viewpoints will become effectively invisible thanks to opaque search engine algorithms, "fact" checking, and increasingly aggressive enforcement of TOS. The English language web landscape might as well be cable news.

* The web in general will fragment.

* Federated protocols will never take off thanks to gatekeeping from the insufferable anarchist types they inevitably attract.
> That would render computers largely worthless to me due to a lack of software.

Curious, why?
the more vague I leave it, the more likely it is to be interpreted as true 10 years from now :)
https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2%E7%8C%AA%E7%...
What "gave it away" about him?
It’s all about expectations.

Amazon and Microsoft have never codified in their value system anything that touches “never working with the military” and no one that joins either company should or does have the expectation that the company would ever back away from something so lucrative.

Google on the other hand has created a culture of “do no evil” (even if that isn’t their official motto anymore) that encouraged SJW-ism, and thus falsely gave the impressions to their workforce that they could speak up about socially progressive issues that have clashed with corporate strategy. They’ve created a workforce of snowflakes, for lack of a better term, and the cognitive dissonance created by a fake progressive culture is extremely counter productive.
I think the take away is that we have human beings cleaning corporate bathrooms. We should have machines and gadgets doing it.
Does your wife actually pronounce these differently? Small sample size but as far as I can tell I pronounce these identically. (CA - native speaker)
Commercial Astronaut Wings Program
I’m just assuming the above is not in good faith, but for anyone else that might be persuaded:

You being killed by a criminal over an iPhone or laptop is not going to change anything. Fund your police, vote to change laws enough that they’re spending their time on things that are relevant, and if you’re honestly willing to die for the rule of law, become a police officer.

Otherwise your body will be one more on the list of “people that died for no reason.” It’s not tough, righteous, or whatever else to die for no reason - and even if it were, if you’re going to make a stand and sacrifice your life, make it over something more than a laptop.
I don't know if it needs to be completely abolished.

But my phone is my voice, my memory, an extension of my mind in many ways. What is "me" and not a third party extends to the actions I take with my phone.

If we can just say my encryption key with a password in my brain is "me" and not a third party's (which can be true with tech setup correctly) then everything is fine. What I give to the third party is not "private" but acquirable without a warrant. But what I give to that third party is cyphertext. You can read my encrypted messages all you want... in their encrypted state. The decryption keys are private parts of my person and the person I am sending the message to.
Fully immersive VR tech will become the future of gaming.
How to Write a Book in Emacs (2015)
I just mean that it would cause unrest because pork make up a not-insignificant portion of China's CPI.
Modern Treasury (YC S18) Is Hiring Full-Stack Engineers in San Francisco
Creating a FAST-LOCAL docker web dev environment
> Meanwhile, Linux and BSD people will still be arguing GTK vs. Qt.

100%. I doubt *nix apps will change much. But you DAWs, photoshops, and microsoft words will no longer exist on the desktop.
Which alternatives worked for you?
Good Story telling has its own value (to some), but I consider it to be different than what food lab, MS, or AB are doing, which I guess you could call more accurately a narrative of constructive details. As opposed to just an experience narrative to go along with the recipe.

The experience narratives can certainly be constructive as well, like maybe describing different versions of dishes tried at various restaurants when trying to recreate a recipe. But even most of these aren't helpful, depending on the author.

And of course the worst is the people who just try to describe an appropriate weather condition or family feeling that goes along with a meal, ala the Giada. Of course Giada is proof that even some people can make that model work well. It's just that most people on the internet don't.
> The legislation directs the State Department to report to Congress within 90 days on how it controls the spread of cyber tools and to disclose any action it has taken to punish companies for violating its policies.

Good.

> Under U.S. law, companies selling hacking products or services to foreign governments must first obtain permission from the State Department.

Are these requests all available under FOIA?
By 2030, people will be waiting for Half Life: Alyx 3 instead.
I don't think its wise or effective to attempt extract information from someone by declaring "radical candor time." and offering little if any candor of their own.

Funnily enough, that fits my stereotype of how a person from Amazon would ask me.
How do taxes pay for birth control?

Could declining birth rate be a sign of a better society that values quality of life over quantity of offspring genes? Of course, causation isn’t correlation and all that.

Perhaps if incentivizing smaller families with UBI for life will be a better policy than incentivizing large families?
Considering a nation as a supervillain is subjective. For someone touched by the US' past horrible foreign policies, the answer is not China for example.
We did this in the Navy to check circular wave guides to the ECM antennas in the leading edge of our bombers wings. We had to do this once every 6 months (I think) with a sweep generator to see if the cables needed to be replaced. Also, installing these were a complete PITA! Nothing was a straight run to where it needed to go, so you had to bend them as gently as possible as you fed the new line into the wing. Then you had to test it again.

These were very expensive and I've seen more than a few screwup's while installing them.

A coworker's cat-5 tester also has a TDR function that shows you where an issue is on the line.
Lucky is making a few trades that went well. When one can do it consistently for twenty years, is it still luck? Yeah, maybe it’s luck that deep-in-the-money AAPL calls (as one example) consistently make money. Maybe my occasional “disaster” strategy (buys calls for UAL, Equifax, et. al., after bad press that’ll blow over) is luck. But, man, both examples consistently work. /shrug

Anyway, I have little desire to repeat the same old arguments, nor convince anyone else. However, one might consider the differences between a slot machine (which tells you up front that you will lose money in the long term, and has no stop orders) and trading equities. Or don’t, matters little to me because I have no argument to win.
> Google could solve a lot of problems by essentially firing every VP they have.

What's shocking was there was a time at google where management was forced to prove their existence was necessary.

https://rework.withgoogle.com/subjects/managers/

One of the problems of course is giving managers feedback. It's hard. It's ugly sometimes. It's always fraught with risk, since you are the one without typically any power in the situation.

But the true canary in the coal mine is when the good employees feel like their feedback isn't heeded, and then they leave. And they can because well, they're good. And HR, having gone through all the trouble of hiring the best and the brightest, are just walking them out the door.

If HR stands up for the employees, then that's a different story than HR being lap dogs for the powerful. Currently turnover numbers probably just sits on page 248 in a footnote of the quarterly HR report and lands on some executive's desk who may or may not care about it.

As an aside, I once told an HR director that the problem with HR is the name: Human Resources -- as in "Humans are Resources". She told me the inside joke at her company was that HR stood for "Happiness Removal".
http://archive.md/ndYJv
No, it's pretty fast [1].

Chrome and V8 were released in 2008, and Node.js (which leverages V8) in 2009. V8 was already considered fast back then. Mozilla and Apple also focused on optimizing their JS stack in the following years.

[1] I'm not a fan of linking to benchmarks, but that's the best I can do: https://benchmarksgame-team.pages.debian.net/benchmarksgame/... / https://benchmarksgame-team.pages.debian.net/benchmarksgame/...
That's not the correct study. That one is from 2017 and published in 2018. The newest one used 89 patients.
This doesn't really relate to my point. The blog post asked why is it that we can handle games (fancy 3D simulations, sometimes with hundreds of players and millions of objects) at a smooth 60 fps but not scrolling a web page. The parent comment suggested that it's easier to render games smoothly because you know the content in advance. I'm suggesting that software gets optimized (by necessity) until it works well enough. If some website had to display a million elements, the devs would either optimize it until it could do so, or the project would get scrapped.

When I talk about sending 8 KB in a "networked action game", I'm referring to the update packets sent to and from clients in something like Fortnite or Counter-Strike, not a game patch. I'm not trying to make a competition for who uses the least bandwidth (which a 60 GB game would lose just on the initial download). I'm trying to illustrate that games don't run faster than some website because it's inherently easier to make games run fast, but rather that developers, by necessity, optimize games until they run fast (or in this example, until they reduce network lag enough).

I'm not sure why a chat app would tack on something like 7.5 KB of overhead on a chat message, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a chat app out there that does so. Users won't notice the extra couple milliseconds (especially so because they don't know exactly when the other person hit send). A 3 character Discord message is close to 1 KB including the headers. The same message over UDP in a game might be under 20 bytes, including the UDP header (games could also use TCP for chat - text chat isn't going to strain anything). So I'd say the overhead of a Discord message is still an order of magnitude or two bigger than it could be. Which is perfectly fine; we can afford 1 KB of overhead on a modern connection. It's optimized as much as it needs to be.
You misunderstood the question - not "is it better for me for this trip to drive or take a train?" but "is it better for me to have a city where people only drive or where many people take the train?"
-Continued corporate conglomeration of power, continued strengthening of tech companies. SP500 a good investment.

-Self driving cars will become a thing, but the technology will never reach level 5 autonomy. It will turn into a level 4 rideshare model, like Waymo's current experiment in AZ. It will be popular but most will still own cars.

-We'll get a least one black swan technological development that will become huge.

-Mores law finally dies. We'll get just a few more turns of the process improvement wheel before it halts and it will be just enough to enable a bit of computing on ambient energy (thermoelectric?). The cost will continue to decrease, becoming a small fraction of the manufacturing cost for many new smart objects. This, plus 5g is going to enable the next phase of IOT, the "smart everything" phase.

-Spacex is going to successfully get it's starship off the ground after a few more failures and embarrassments. It's going to be not quite as awesome as originally promised, but will still set us up for big advances in space exploration in the 2030's. No Mars footprints in the 20's.

-Mobile VR similar to the Oculus quest is going to be the must have consumer tech of the decade. There will be killer social apps and in 2029 I will have a remote meeting with my co-workers in VR that feels nearly as good as an in-person meeting. Business travel purely for meetings is going to start to be viewed as an unnecessary expense.

-Electric cars and green energy are going to continue to grow, but still nowhere near enough to make a dent in fossil fuel use and we will end the decade in even deeper climate trouble than we are now.

-China is going to continue to perfect it's special brand of techno-autocracy and it will be exported to countries around the globe, creating a significant global power block rival to western liberal democracies.

-We're going to discover a kind of systematic information rot on the consumer click-driven internet where by the information quality over time trends towards zero. Truth will be indistinguishable from fiction and all news sources will be equally suspect.

-Our phones are here to stay, but are not going to be much different at the end of the decade than the beginning. The foldables are not going to become mainstream. They might all be port-less though.
That makes sense, thanks. I generally switch long before I get anywhere near to where the database is the bottleneck, I use Postgres as a broker only for low-traffic sideprojects, where it's much more worthwhile to not bother with an extra broker.