skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Ok i'm being a bit ambitious:

1. Nuclear fusion is closer to real use but not yet there

2. Due to battery capacity improvements: Drones flying humans around will be here

3. Drone packet delivery everywhere. When you look out over a city, you see a lot of drones going from A to B.

4. Car travel within city will be banned more and more in the Netherlands

5. Car travel on highway will contain 20% cars in autonomous mode. However autonomy in cities is still not everywhere.

6. The mission to Mars (settlement) is getting serious shape for 2020 - 2030. Visiting space is something rich people do (fly to see earth & back for 20.000 euro)

7. Travel across the world will be way faster, and go via space (SpaceX)

8. Health tracking using a wearable is recommend. Machine learning techniques will tell you when you should see a doctor. Healthy life styles are the trend. Alcohol is seen as bad on similar levels as smoking is now. However youngsters still drink a lot.

9. A economical depression will start, causing conflicts in different parts of the world.

10. Fuchsia will be on mobile phones. Apps dont need to be downloaded anymore, they can be run from the internet. Just like web pages, but on flutter technology.
Unless walled gardens bring in mechanisms that bring a real cost to the table for creating content, such as limitations on posts and account creation, they would be in the same boat.

In either system users can go to a strict whitelisting approach but that would com at a cost of discoverability and serendipity. This would strengthen the position of anointed 'influencers' and curators, and diminish the value of algorithmic feeds so eating into the revenue model of those that rely on this.

Since those forces are counteracting it is hard to make predictions, but I will anyway but take it with a strong dose of uncertainty.

My dystopian take is the ubiquitous deployment of 'fake' actors will further undermine the general inter-human levels of trust. Evolutionary less fragile altruistic strategies rely on unfakable or at least costly signals to stand up to the 'free-rider' intrusion. Sadly undermining trust will accelerate the further descend into identity tribalism we are already witnessing today, a segregation into near-immutable trait based groups where cross-clan transgressions are punished with extreme measures. As a caricature think of the television portrayal of tribal gang cultures in maximum security prisons.

My utopian take is that the onslaught of fake noise will restore the reliance on offline contacts and connections. Due to physical proximity these offline groups have to share more of the negative externalities caused by their actions which could lead to more altruistic consideration in consumption and production descisioning. Direct verifyable contribution and impact might trump systemic distrust and lead us out of the current innate identity tribal descend.
I wish we had more cities with tech. Seems like Silicon Valley is still the #1 place for tech despite the cost of living and other issues. There's probably a lot of intelligent and smart people but disadvantaged due to poor location and who feel misplaced. However the rise of remote might change this too. I know some cities are pushing at getting fiber, so that might attract tech too. I know I keep hearing that Austin is the next Silicon Valley, but I feel like as the city grows, housing and other issues will come up just like San Francisco.
joke for sure, made me laugh out loud :)
OP specifically said 'no job losses from AI automation' - the point was, not only no AGI in some singularity sense, but in general, no AI 'general enough' to take over significant human jobs.
Vimcar | Frontend, Backend, QA | Berlin, Germany | Full-time, ONSITE

Vimcar provides vehicle fleet management for SMBs in Europe, thus helping small companies to keep track where their cars are and optimize how their are utilized.

We are well funded with more than 50k customers and more than 70k connected cars transmitting live data.

Technologies include (advanced) Python, (recent) Java, Typescript, React, AWS, Docker, Jenkins.

Office in central Berlin, close to public transport. Office language is English. Will sponsor visas.

Open Positions:

- (Senior) Backend Engineer - Python: https://vimcar.de/career/jobs/tech/TE-WAB-19-1?coref=1.10.u4...

- (Senior) Frontend Software Engineer – Web Application Development: https://vimcar.de/career/jobs/tech/TE-FR-19-3?coref=1.10.u4E...

- Testing Automation Engineer: https://vimcar.de/career/jobs/tech/TE-AUTO-19-1?coref=1.10.u...
Everyone who replied to this with "But what if...?": we are not talking to you. To a first approximation, literally everybody else does not have your problem -- they have W2 income and their filing status is very probably the same as it was last year. If you got married you filed a marriage license; if you had a kid your name was likely on the birth certificate. The IRS could guess everybody's taxes and be right at least 80% of the time, quite probably more like 95%. It really would be an existential threat to H&R Block, and good riddance.
This isn’t really “cracking” iOS, getting it to boot is more providing it with the hardware and services it needs to start up. Some people have gotten quite far just by patching qemu.
Does anyone remember how Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, chimed in on the debate regarding Google's Burger emoji?

https://twitter.com/sundarpichai/status/924487551372615680
It’s two lines and also forces are very small on rappels
Location: Melbourne, Australia (British Citizen)

Remote: Yes

Willing to relocate: Yes

Technologies: Java, JavaScript, Python, Unity

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-alexander-williams-b708b91...

Résumé/CV: http://www.swilliams.io/resources/ScottWilliamsCV.pdf

Email: woohoowilliams@gmail.com
A bunch of random predictions that I typed as they came to mind:

1. Google has a serious competitor in the search engine space, but it is from an already established corporation and not a new startup

2. An internet celebrity (i.e. fully-online career like a YouTuber) is elected leader of a major country

3. Windows drops 32-bit support

4. There still hasn't been a huge, crippling state-sponsored cyberattack. The rhetoric will remain as it is in 2020

5. Fake news is no more or less relevant/damaging than it is in 2020, but it will still be in the public consciousness

6. Similarly, deepfakes will be politically weaponized, but only a few people will fall for them, as they will be debunked the same way that fake news stories were debunked in the 2010s

7. Partly with the help of social media, several western countries will elect governments that explicitly identify as fascist or communist

8. As the developing world becomes more connected to the internet, userbases of popular websites will become more tilted toward countries like India and China

9. China will abandon its Great Firewall

10. The major players in the tech industry will not change. Google, Apple, Microsoft, et al. will still dominate, even as they attain increasingly negative press coverage and customer dissatisfaction. Silicon Valley will not be meaningfully disrupted until the 2030s

11. Internet privacy will become more politicized and more people will care about it as a result (i.e., as it ties into other beliefs and identities)

12. Internet-based cults will become prominent, possibly some as large as Scientology was in its heyday
Continuous Profiling in Go with Profefe
Corellium isn’t really a piracy product. Think of it like an emulator that you can load ROMs into.
As an Opera user you were not very likely to be behind some middlebox. Middleboxes interfering with pipelined traffic was the reason it was never safe to enable by default.
Eagle Store – Order Hàng Mỹ
They'll just insist that the woman pay for the incredibly expensive artificial womb. It's a potentially amazing liberation technology, but only if the health economics are sorted out.
Protecting data on public clouds and edges with confidential computing
I don't know the specifics but it sounds to me like making a VirtualBox product that is fine-tuned for macOS, including guest drivers for smooth integration (like VirtualBox Guest Additions).

If the user provides the IPSW files, I don't see what's the problem.

If I were Corellium I would open-source the product and see about licensing to corporate customers. What will Apple do then? Send a DMCA to GitHub?
Ah yeah, McDonalds is totally a reasonable comparison!

Corellium doesn’t charge a few “nice” researchers, but builds their business around the evil researchers willing to pay $1M/yr for a license. Clearly they’re exactly like McDonalds!
If you can get a working ISO, virtualbox will run it. Hardware doesn't tend to care what's running on it, virtualized hardware is no different.
Of nuclear plants where ground is broken from 2020-2025, I predict that less than 10 percent will be in operation by 2030.
> It's as simple as that.

Nothing is ever as simple as that. Not only is it a foolish, immoral and illegal, you've also just communicated murderous intent. Have fun spending 20-to-life in a cell because you thought ultraviolence would be a good way to do your part towards society.

I've had more than my fair share of violent confrontations, and I assure you, no matter how well you think you are prepared, once the metallic taste of adrenaline hits you, all your plans and delusions of grandeur go out the window.

A bit of violence can be acceptable. Murder over property is not.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17555842
As of Jan 1, 2030...

* Donald Trump won and served a second term as US President. He was succeeded by a democrat.

* Marijuana is legal in the United States.

* The EUR-USD exchange rate is lower than at any time in 2019 (or the EUR is no longer in circulation).

* China's per-capita GDP (at market exchange rates) is less than that of the US. Its total GDP is less than that of the US.

* Globally, the vast majority of vehicles being made are EVs.

* Globally, the portion of total primary energy supplied by fission is higher than in 2019. The portion supplied by fusion is zero.

* Satellite internet has largely replaced cable and cellular networks. SpaceX (or a spinoff) is the leading provider.

* Serverless architectures (lambda functions) are standard for backend development.

* It has been discovered that the holographic principle severely restricts general-purpose quantum computing. There's still a regime in which quantum computers are useful.

* In the US, the percentage of babies conceived by IVF is at least 3x higher than in 2019. Among these, screening for sex and intelligence is common, with females being preferred to males.

* Humans have walked on Mars.

* We have discovered alien life.
- self driving cars:
Improvements and advances, but not enough to handle the complexity of old European cities with their twisting roads and nonsensical street plans.

- quantum computing:
We at least triple the qubit count. Maybe even quadruple. It's enough to do something of use, maybe even give "quantum supremacy" on one actual useful problem. Not much more than that, though.

- nuclear fusion:
2-4 "scientific breakthroughs". It remains a science project though. No commercially viable fusion power.

- AI:
The hype dies out. AI won't change many things explosively, but it'll seep into everyday life andhaveabroad and profound impact. Medical diagnoses will be better, weather predictions, security, live tracking of people, etc. Most won't recognise it as AI.

- privacy.
Technological advances will slow down, If only because there's not that much more to gain. Awareness will start to catch up and we will collectively wonder how to extricate ourselves from this dystopian hellhole we inflicted upon ourselves.

- society:
Despite general feelings of "not ok", distribution of resources will skew further. The middle class will remain under pressure, for the simple reason that growth for the upper echelon cannot come from lower tiers. Yet middle class will continue to exist - a buffer between the have-nothings and the one-percenters.

- guns in the USA:
The number of mass shootings will remain roughly equivalent to what it was in 2019. Growth is commensurate with population growth. Despite 3-5 high profile shootings a la Sandy Hook, the law won't be significantly more effective at preventing shootings.

- space:
India and China will take the lead beyond low earth orbit.

- cancer:
No great cancer breakthrough, just steadily continuing to chip away. By the end of the decade, 50% of new cancer patients can be converted into long-term treatment (5 yrs or more).

- climate change:
The efforts in the coming decade are vastly insufficient. The only viable means of really combating climate change in the less-than-centuries time frame is significant reduction of population. (Over 25% decline in 10 years). Not sure if anyone has the balls to actually say that by then though.
1. A huge recession like never before happening before 2025.

2. Facebook Libra becomes prevalent. Others (Google, Apple, Microsoft) follow to have their e-coins.

3. AR and/or VR is the smartphone of the 20s.

4. Facebook becomes the most valuable company in the world first to reach a 2T$ valuation.
> I'm sure the Party thought they had a good reason.

They did, and it’s one of the key reasons centrally planned economies always fail (really their resistance to failure is only determined by their people’s endurance for suffering). In a free market, value is set by supply and demand, bad decisions and bad ideas don’t survive, and you have some reasonably decent metrics to measure success. In a planned economy, value is set by the planning committee. As a decision maker in such a system, your value is determined by how successful you are at convincing those higher up the chain that you have good ideas and make good decisions. Every decision maker in the chain of command is incentivized to lie to their superiors, and the ultimate authority is incentivized to lie to the public. Small failures and course corrections are not possible under such a system, so for a failure to be acknowledged, it has to overcome the ability of the person who’s responsible for it to conceal it. It becomes essential for anybody with any power to control the “truth”.

You can see the same dynamics at play in any sufficiently large organisation (generally scaling proportional to the slowing feedback loop between decision and outcome, and with any form of complexity that would obscure the direct relationship between decision and outcome), though usually on a much smaller scale. China allows enough free market activity to take place to allow it to survive, but you can see the failures of its planning committees everywhere.
Be interesting if Apple released their own cloud product, since many people buy Mac's just because you have to use it for XCode to build and release iOS apps. However there is companies that will rent a remote Mac desktop. So seems like it would hurt Mac sales.
see also: gage block wringing
Yeah but edk rolls too, that’s why you need to leave a foot long ends at least
You might find these interesting:

Cable lacing on the Curiosity rover: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4472312

The Lost Art of Lacing Cable (2018): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20582844
Minor remark:

"With a snippet of your voice and a few selfies, you'll be able to create a fairly realistic representation of yourself as the main hero of e.g. a Final Fantasy 7 type game. "

Extrapolating from FB/Instagram I would wager a 'fairly realistic' representation while technically an option will be shunned by most in favor of a 'fairly idealized' representation or alternatively some sort of myopically polarized extreme trait representation.
A few months back I moved my dock to the side of my screen solely because of this reason. I prefer it at the bottom, but after a few days I'm used to this. The extra vertical space is so awesome then I should've done this earlier. (I'm not a fan of the dock automatically hiding because I mostly have DND enabled)
Do you (or anyone else) have ideas for what to do with

- a MyBook that isn't recognized anymore?

I've figured out there's probably some encryption in the casing because when I disassemble it and connect it directly it shows up as unformatted or something.

- an ssd which seems even more dead.

Personally I've gotten back erased data (photorec) and data from at least 2 other disks (tilting the disk or freezing the disk), but these two have me stumped which is sad since they broke shortly after each other and one were supposed to be the backup ;-)
What kind of awful subway is it, that takes 35 minutes to drive 7 stops?

I just checked a Rotterdam subway line and it does 30 stops in an hour[0] which is a ~32KM distance as a bird flies[1].

[0] https://www.ret.nl/home/reizen/dienstregeling/metro-b.html
[1] https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Nesselande,+Rotterdam/Hoek+v...
Nearly all drive failures today are either control electronics or bearings.

Control electronics can be replaced. Bearings can be overcome with a higher motor drive current.

Some drives have crypto keys stored in flash - those are harder to fix.
> Wrong then wrong now.

While pithy, that's not actually an interesting rebuttal.

You should elaborate, especially since "huge corporations", namely Apple, Google, and Mozilla (I guess?), are the ones pushing Swift, Go, and Rust, respectively.
> Either the system we have today works because we put enough money into it, and therefore would continue to work if we nationalized; or our system has unjust failures that we should seek to rectify.

That is very bad reasoning. Most things don't get cheaper when they get nationalized. There is some evidence healthcare may be different in this regard, but the point is: costs are not invariant under nationalization.

> Is your position that bringing everyone's healthcare up to Medicare's baseline is too expensive? Where is the extra cost coming from?

Cost of providing the existing service is not the only cost worth considering. The other issue is opportunity cost of innovation. Right now there are powerful incentives for people to innovate in the healthcare space, particularly in pharmaceuticals. But also in prosthetics and the procedural space. Nationalization is likely to crimp those incentives, and thereby lead to less innovation over time.
1. Intel will survive, but AMD will have the majority of the market, most of the time. Apple will try to invest in it’s own ARM workstation CPUs, but will eventually switch to AMD cores (licensed, used inside proprietary Apple’s chips).

2. Windows will still dominate desktops.

3. Quantum computers will stay approximately where they are today, expensive toys for scientists without practical applications.

4. Electric road vehicle sales will exceed gasoline ones; the major driver being developing countries. Couple global car brands emerge from these countries, likely Asian, like Xiaomi did.

5. US and China will come to some trade agreement and resume business as usual.

6. Russia will disintegrate once again, causing major global security headache because nukes.
A Sucker Is Born Everyday in CryptoLand
I was streaming from Netflix in 2007.
If you have RSI, you would probably be better served by a bowl keyboard like a kinesis or a maltron; or, at least, a split keyboard like an ergodox.
1. There will be a major earthquake in a major city.
2. More states in US will implement their own version of GDPR.
3. Tech Conference pass prices will continue to rise, reach a tipping point until it would be free to attend.
4. Queen Elizabeth II would pass away.
5. Food delivery companies would not be sustainable and they will have to pivot to something else.
6. Google will still be #1 in search, Amazon in shopping but might be forced by government to break up into smaller entities.
7. Alternatives to password would be used for authentication.
8. "Influencers" will lose value and people will start to not buy things if it was "influenced"
People do buy iPhones for exactly the purpose they use Corellium for, Corellium has advertised themselves as an alternative to buying tens of iPhones.

See the image in this tweet (can’t direct link from mobile) https://twitter.com/josephfcox/status/1189218066028216324

I don’t think you can reasonably make this argument.
I could but it's doesn't change the nature of the job.
This page is probably a good place for someone who wants to practice their editing skills. The article has the facts, but the style is lacking (it has awkward phrasing, unnecessary passive voice, and sentence fragments).
China falls. People seeking better food or environment conditions will keep suffering in the foreseeable future, but regional conflicts and the weakened economy will finally kill the old dragon.
the so called "death panels" were Politfact's Lie of the Uear.

They were AARP supported voluntary sessions, paid for by Medicare, where people could discuss stuff like living wills and other end of life issues. https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/dec/18...
Year in Review: Better, Not Bigger
I’m not going to argue with you about how comparable it is; I consider Corellium to be usable enough as a general purpose tool that I exempt it from criticism along the lines of “this is a bad product that can only really be used by bad people”. I have no insight into how many of their contracts go to “evil” researchers and how much this is skewed by them providing their services for free to those who are not “evil researchers”; if you can show me that their service is overwhelmingly used only by the people you’re talking about I might be a little bit more willing to entertain your point.
Horses are still just as expensive as they were. Railroads are faster now, and more efficient through diesel-electric engines.
I have snmptraps and rsyslog for monitoring, the management somehow don't believe things from the AC/AP, as they are data from the "vendor" or something.
Starts by quoting Eliezer Yudkowsky, winds up advertising for "weirdos from William Gibson novels". I would have to eat so much cheese to dream something as weird as this.
Regardless of profitability I think people are spending a lot more money on the internet today as they were 10 years ago. Subscription services, gig economy, and online retail have exploded in the last 10 years in a way that I don't think many people predicted.
Mergers are about improving profits, not improving quality.
The USPS does not deliver to every address in the US.

I don’t know what specifically causes the USPS to deliver to a specific area, but there are entire incorporated cities, some with reasonably large population and density, that don’t receive mail at all except to the local post office. Even UPS and FedEx’s low-cost all-but-the-last-mile services regularly lose packages because they hand them off to the USPS.
The drive itself is likely good - it's probably a software/config error with the casing. A drive recovery company will probably be able to recover it cheaply, or third party recovery software on the bare drive.
Dupe. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21944065