skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Training for developers, presumably, especially web developers who want to build native apps. If retraining was free, Electron would have approximately no market.
I predict that people will continue to incorrectly think the new decade starts with the X0 year rather than the X1 year.
Svelte.
The law of software bloat has been known since the 1980's. It's called Wirth's Law, or "What Intel giveth, Microsoft taketh away". See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirth%27s_law.
Used a Logitech Wingman 3D... Win10 doesn't even recognize it as a device.

Low priority to find a current flight stick.
“there will be a BREAKFAST Walk into the block in the room”
A nation becomes divided along linguistic lines when it has many different languages in use within its borders. In a nation as diverse as the US, it is of critical importance that there be unifying forces acting to bring us together against the natural tendency for division and divisiveness. Sharing a common language is one of these unifying forces, and when you share a common language with someone it's possible for you to share and grow your common common culture.

You see, when people do not share language, they are culturally isolated. I do not believe in forcefully imposing some American culture on all immigrants. What I want is cultural mixing, as has happened throughout America's history, but this can only happen within the context of a shared language.

It's baffling to me that some people are so resistant to this basic idea of linguistic unity. Building and maintaining a strong nation, just like building and maintaining any relationship or community, requires effort and care. Sure it takes effort to learn English, but the fruits of this effort are a stronger more united America and is an important step for new immigrants integrating into the American family. Remember that in the process of integration, there is also sharing, cooperation and community building.
It's not far from that now, at least in the UK I think 80% of people get their cars on some kind of personal contract plan.
Thanks a lot, both of you, learned something!
I'm still trying to understand if the author is making fun of Windows or making fun of himself.
I think you're talking about a much longer period than just 2020. The job prediction seems unlikely to happen within the next decade, even.
Considering they specifically mentioned "alongside Guam," I have to assume they meant becoming a territory of the United States.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_Stat...
I'm curious to know what you mean by "labelled information".

I'm guessing that what you are calling "labelled information" is various forms of encouragement or discouragement that could be considered positively and negatively "labelled" examples.

If that is the case, linguistics research back in the '70s found that infants get almost no negative examples of, in particular, language. For example, a parent will not correct a child by saying, "no you can't say 'eated' because then you could also say 'sitted'". Instead they will correct by saying "no, you should say 'ate'" etc. That is important because there was a famous proof in inductive inference (the precursor to computational learning theory) that languages higher in the Chomsky hierarchy than regular languages cannot be learned from positive examples alone. And yet, babies eventually learn to speak human languages, which are assumed to be at least context-free. Chomsky used these findings to support his claim of a "universal grammar" or innate language endowment [1].

If you are talking about multi-class labelling, that's even harder to imagine. In machine learning, a multi-class classifier will map inputs to some set of categorical labels (i.e. a set of integers) but the mapping from those labels to concepts that a human would recognise, such as 1:cat, 2:bat, 3:hat, etc, must be perormed manually, because the classifier and humans do not have a shared understanding of what e.g. "cat", "bat" and "hat" mean. The classifier only knows 1,2,3... etc, the human knows that "1 means cat". How would this lack of shared context be resolved between an adult and a baby, so that the adult could provide "multi-class labels"?

___________

[1] Sorry that I don't have any references for all this handy- I can try to dig some up if you're interested, but you could start by reading the wikipedia page on Language Identification in the Limit, which is about the famous result from inductive inference I mention (also known as Gold's result from the man who derived it):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_identification_in_the...
Indeed, look up / down is very simple implemented. Just alter the horizon line position. This works for the human eye for small deviations such as ±20°, but will lead to perspective distortions for higher angles.
Here are my predictions:

1. Countries and private companies will launch stablecoins and it'll be the most used payment medium in developed countries.

2. Bitcoin will grow, but it'll not be the biggest cryptocurrency anymore.

3. Total market cap of all cryptocurrencies (including stablecoins) will be ~$8T.

4. Around 50% of the software jobs will be remote.

5. USA and China tradewar will turn into something more scary and people will be increasingly more wary of a third world war.

6. Apple releases their first iteration of AR glasses and it'll use an iPhone as it's driver.

7. Renaissance of piracy through decentralized systems like Filecoin. We'll have illegal products that will be easier to use than Netflix, and more content. Netflix, Spotify, et al. will never be able to have a complete library of all content, but it's pirate competitors will.

8. OpenAI will start building products or provide services for consumers or businesses. They'll be very profitable and have a valuation of around $30B.
> Number 1 is a pretty interesting prediction. The indicator are definitely there, but it would be a huge change to global culture and doesn't seem doable in 10 years.

When Ken Livingstone was mayor of London, he did a deal with Venezuela to get cheap fuel for buses in return for consulting:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/oil-deal-means-half-price-bu...
Facility – a print only magazine about bathrooms
Yeah, I definitely get that from the subtext or, sometimes, the text. The weird thing is that it's cutting off their noses to spite their faces ... they spend MORE on insurance then they would in taxes.

But in a lot of cases, it's like they will not (or can not) learn from what is going on in other countries. Maybe it's also US exceptionalism at play?
I suspect but have no professional qualification, that it's the same root as stockholm syndrome, in that there is a tendency to form emotional sympathetic bonds with entities strong enough to kill us in some sense, or at least exerting significant control over our lives.

The immense leverage a company has over an employee, especially when made clear, such as in layoffs or changes that are not conducive to the workforce enforced by management, leads people to rationalize this lack of security and control by creating control in the form of a narrative, that the company cares about them and they should recognize and respect that caring.
There's been some threads making technology and business predictions for the new decade. An analogue is in order for the world peace situation.
this must be up
SEEKING WORK|Remote only|London based

Android apps & Firebase backend, 9 years of experience, big companies as well as fast startups (Facebook, Deutsche Telecom, Deliveroo...)

Skills: Quick prototyping/MVP, establish scalable and maintainable architecture (MVVM, MVP, Clean), work well with others, conversational English

http://www.linkedin.com/in/gabor-biro-29322b27

https://www.upwork.com/fl/gaborbiro

gabor.biro@yahoo.com
I have some background in speech recognition, translation, machine learning, so many of my predictions will center around these topics.

1. More consumer robots, more fancy variants of cleaner robots.

2. Autonomous cars will be there, at least simple variants which work under some constraints (e.g. highway). (I think this is level 3 or 4, not sure how these levels are defined.)

3. More world-wide conflicts, because of politics, and also because of climate change. I'm optimistic that a world war will not happen, but it will become worse and worse.

4. The deep learning hype grows rate slows down a bit. Custom hardware becomes more important, as we are currently hitting the ceiling with computing power, which will not grow as much exponentially as it has before. Custom hardware will first focus on making existing models cheaper and faster to run (think of TPU), but at some later point also lead to different models and learning algorithms (Neuromorphic chips).

5. Speech recognition is a solved thing, more or less. The focus will shift towards embedding a speech recognition system/model into some bigger system, like an assistant, i.e. with parts like natural language understanding/processing, dialog systems, etc, and that will be more like an end-to-end system, not so much separated anymore. I.e. one big neural network for everything. Maybe in the beginning parts of it (like the speech part) are trained individually, or in a pretraining scheme. Current heuristics and hardcoded rules will go away and be replaced by neural solutions.

6. Meta reinforcement learning will become more important, and bigger more general neural networks. Generality means that they will solve multiple tasks at once, similar to the dialog system I outlined, but this trend will also follow in other domains. It will all go into the direction of AGI (which basically is exactly that: an AI which is (more) general), but not reach it fully yet. Meta RL will also go along side with online/continual learning, and being able to learn new things at inference time. There will be stable basic models / learning algorithms which can be easily plugged into some system as a building block, and it can be treated like a black box and will mostly work (think about AlphaZero or MuZero but more advanced, more general, almost no hyper params to tune, all automatically). Meta RL will also solve sample efficiency to some degree.

7. Much more electric cars, maybe being the majority.

8. Not much people will care about Bitcoin anymore. Maybe other cryptocurrencies though, but not sure. Proof of work is not a long-term solution.

9. China will dominate in many aspects, such as economy, but also research.
Why exactly is this overreach? Corellium cracks iOS licensing, it’s no different from pirating Windows.
It's complicated. The US spends more per capita (PPP) than any other country by good margin [1]. Of that, the US government pays roughly 50% of the total cost [2]. The net effect is that the US government already pays as much per capita as many European countries with socialized medicine.

In short, we have a cost problem that's not being tackled. Pharmaceuticals are often targeted, but they're about 8% of our total healthcare costs. We really need politicians that will tackle the other aspects of cost.

The countries that finance public healthcare have tax systems that are considered regressive by US standards. Some states have sales taxes, but we have no national VAT. As I understand it, some countries like Sweden have income taxes on lower income workers, whereas in the US, roughly 45% of households pay no federal income tax.

You can only squeeze so much money out of the wealthy, but the numbers don't add up to cover the projected costs of nationalized healthcare in the US. Taxes would need to be raised across the board. It's easy for campaigning politicians to propose pie-in-the-sky plans, but proposing a financially plausible one would be political suicide.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_hea...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_health_ex...
I have a Macbook Air 2012 which is still supported by Apple (I get new OSes and OS updates every year).
I also liked Huey because of it's simplicity, and tried using it in a commercial project, but it couldn't execute periodic tasks in less than a minute intervals which puzzled me a bit. I had need to execute task every 10 seconds to reindex database changes to ElasticSearch.

After opening GitHub issue about it and asking if there were plans to implement sub-minute intervals, library's author (coleifer on github) had dismissive/arrogant attitude, and his reply was something along the lines of "too bad you cannot fork it and do it by yourself" and deleted my thread.

This threw me off from using this library, and I went back to Celery.
Wait, you think AGI is out of reach, but a working package manager for C++ is possible?
Interior Mutability Patterns in Rust
Separation of concerns can be handled in one language. The popular MVC pattern does not require three separate languagues. And in fact that's rare in my experience. So web frameworks moving towards the norm and allowing it to all be handled in the same language should not be surprising or a mess.
Show HN: Vimer – Declutter your desktop by opening files in existing GVim/MacVim
Vast majority of people here think self driving is over hyped.

The AI not leading to job displacement prediction is just silly, given that it's already leading to job loss.
My favorite knot which continues to confound MIT to this day is called the Gordian Knot.
Honk-honk!
High-impact, high-growth startups to work for in 2020
If you’re going to do this please make specific allegations instead of posting this pathetic nonsense.

Or email hn@ycombinator.com like the guidelines tell you to.
Contattare un hacker esperto, sicuro e anonimo
I don't believe anyone doubts that.
And Nokia as well...
For mergers the best case scenario is probably quality remaining at the same level.
Safer for pedestrians and other drivers, I presume?
Do you have any resources on this you could recommend?
Let's make a project to trim Win10 to 1G of disk usage.
If this was Corbyns advisor and Corbyn was in power how would people feel about a data driven approach to disrupting politics?

For left leaning folk don't like cummings new style, does that mean they are thinking conservatively about government?

I think this is an interesting thought experiment?
Getting Started with Creative Coding
Dear world, I present to you CyberSecQ
Maybe is Windows 7 all the service packs of a long lived OS.
Maybe I missed it in the article, but is gzip-compression enabled?

If so, the total amount of data transmitted will be quite different when a compounded response is compared to individual ones.
Just FYI, this fork is updated https://github.com/arteria/django-background-tasks
I disagree with the suggestion that the size of the group is important here.

For example, a better measure might be the nature of the harm, if any, done by the defiant group.
You had me up until here: 'Web development matures and a "standard" stack is accepted, all in JS.'

The Node ecosystem is a mess and it starts with core being a hodgepodge of deprecated mush. I think it's more likely that wasm picks up steam.

Rails, PHP, Django, etc aren't going anywhere.
Unintended consequences of PPACA made the system significantly worse. They let multiple industries consolidate using PPACA as an excuse. Yet no one will talk about it for political reasons. This happened across the board not just among hospitals. I am surprised UNH didn’t start buying out biotech companies to make drugs exclusive to their plans.
The thing that jumps out at me about HTTP/2: even if your browser can send N parallel requests for different entities, you're still making N database queries and incurring N request overheads.

This means that every layer of your stack has to be reorganized and optimized around HTTP/2 traffic patterns...or you can just batch requests as before, and save that overhead. It makes me think that the N entities problem isn't actually the most promising use case for HTTP/2...
Also jacquesm on Jan 1, 2010 [-] ...

> if there is a way to work Elon Musk in there somewhere that would be good, I have a feeling he's going to make some big waves in the next 10 years but I haven't a clue how.
A computer made from DNA can compute the square root of 900
"The sailors saved the boys, but who will save the sailors?"
I'd like to see more research on already known cannabinoids. From what I've read, the effects of CBD on its own are pretty limited; most of its strength lies in "entourage effects" when combined with THC. The same seems true of CBG and CBC, though (possibly) to a smaller degree. I'd rather not have to take THC to get the others' analgesic, anti-inflammatory, or anti-viral effects. Research oriented toward THC alternatives or additives that minimize its psychoactive effects while still unlocking CB[CDG]'s effects would be great. Anybody know of any?
> Postgres is the nr 1 database in use
> SAP's ERP system revenues will have dropped significantly

These seem linked to me, I can't imagine any of the recent startups in are using SAP/Oracle based solutions. Over time this is going to become an increasing problem for SAP and Oracle. All they can do is milk what they can from their dying client base, probably hastening the demise in the process.
His existing monitoring setup has snmp traps n rsyslog involved somehow? It didnt detect the outage soon enough for them to prevent the issue from escalating into...whatever it is now...

I mean...end user complaints is the cheapest kind of monitoring solution but maybe its not politically acceptable?

You could totally do redundancy and failovers and stuff. And perhaps automate some of that. And monitoring is there to detect the "down" to trigger some of these?
> Even free market with some good regulations to promote competition would probably work.

One of the really interesting things about US healthcare is how much is spent on bureaucracy.

Consider, the average surgeon does ~400 operations per year and they generally make less than 600k/year. That’s 1,500$ per operation for the surgeon. Even with support staff, infrastructure, and materials, the average surgery should be under 10k.

Now let’s take an insurance that’s paying say 80% of it’s premiums for medical care. That’s 1 / 0.8 = a flat 25% price increase directly on top of whatever they add to healthcare provider’s costs in terms of additional paperwork and negotiation.

Similarly, before it goes to insurance the cost is inflated at the healthcare provider level to cover administrative costs like unpaid bill collections etc.
Hungary has this:

https://ifstudies.org/blog/is-hungary-experiencing-a-policy-...

Some UK nationalist politicians have recently mentioned this approvingly. Traditionally, policies like this fit in very well with authoritarian populist governments, and i think we're likely to see more of those, so i agree with your prediction.
Majority of my mental energy in relation to drugs, some consideration:

- having a mortgage and life insurance attached to it

- parents prevented contact with their children due to government intervention

- people in jail for possession of drugs

- safe driving limits

- undoing 50+ years of propaganda and social conditioning
Some starfish-like animals see without eyes by changing body colour
It seems to me quite a tall order to say that "any competent philosopher today can discuss what Plato thought generally and how/why we think differently today."

Do you have a summary or link to one?
Would you prefer this article then?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/01/02/amazon-...

Amazon threatens to fire critics who are outspoken on its environmental policies
Care to elaborate?
I haven't gone derp w Svelte and Sapper, but have heard good things. Interested in any meaningful critique.
Deep learning is not going to get us to AGI. But the hardware techniques definitely are going to get us a bit closer.

I did the numbers a while ago and honestly I don't think we need smaller transistors to get the computation volume of our mushy brains -- although ofc, more and smaller transistors is always very nice. I believe the only thing stopping AGI at this point is architecture -- we really have no idea how to connect and structure something as complex as our brains -- and cognitive maturity. The last part is my way of saying "two weeks for training a NN? Wait until you have a kid and have to work on training the little human for decades....".

TBH, the ethical implications of AGI seem insurmountable to me. Life is a game --meaning the universe doesn't care about us, nor we owe anything to it--, and for now, it's our game. So, I would rather we put all that computing to improving human life -- including mind upload,-- and put AGI right there with nuclear weapons.
If you haven't seen the Holotypic Occlupanid Research Group yet, you really should.

https://www.horg.com/horg/
> 6. PWAs become more popular than apps due to lower cost to build and higher revenues.

I beg to differ. I think centralized online market service will become so dominant, there is no need for a small business to build and maintain any kind of app or website anymore. This is already happening, take look Amazon for retail, YouTube/Netflix for film/movie and Spotify for music as example. And the market for this is not saturated, so I'm guess there will be more and more online markets pop up in the future.
Try to get the screen or battery replaced. To be fair, they're easier user serviceable than newer MB(A/P)s. For example, me with my MBP 2015 will have a harder time to service it once it gets EOL (hardware-wise) than you have now with your MBA 2012.
Don't Bet on an Expected Value
This sounds like assembler.
> • Three on-site technical interviews

Are these 3 separate interviews, or all in one day?
> Even free market with some good regulations to promote competition would probably work.

That's not a free market then. This is the hardest part of the entire discussion: everyone is attempting to not exercise political power because they have these grand notions that politics can be done for the benefit of all. I'm not saying M4A is impossible (in fact, I would prefer it if I still lived in the states), but the fact of the matter is that the donor class will feel the sting of this transition, so we go off and Chase fairy tales where both the donors and the people rationing insulin can both coexist.

Ultimately you end up with contradictory notions like a regulated free market.
I don't think most resources in todays web are database-dependent. It is mostly static content (images, videos, scripts, stylesheets etc.) that are large in filesize. A single resource, however, might trigger a multitude of db queries (think calling a REST service endpoint).

Anyways, HTTP/2 allows multiplexing and waiting a single resource won't stall any other requests, which can be sent whenver they are ready.
Cisco Router in Low Earth Orbit
>"not "how i built my business in 4 hours"

She says at the bottom of the article:

I literally built a business in an afternoon and so can you.

I also appreciate the effort to put something like this together, especially for a person without minimal coding ability. That part is great.

Calling it a "business" is everything that's wrong with the Silicon Valley mentality. It isn't something you do in an afternoon. It could be a business one day, heck, it should be! But emphasizing the technical component over actually doing business is how many so-called companies get into trouble.
Haha, good point. I think there are some other companies trying to compete (IBM, Oracle).

Actually this is already wrong because Alibaba has a cloud offering and they will certainly be relevant in 2030.
Ever since I played Comanche, I've been asking myself the same thing. I guess they had some real elevation maps and pictures as a base and then made manual changes to add periodicity and color. A half-manual and half-algorithmic approach.
I’m so old as to remembering reading a New York Times newspaper touting the need for Prohibition on their front page.