skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> Happy new decade!

HN wouldn't be HN if I'd let this stand uncommented, so... The decade actually runs from 2011-2020. But yes, the 20s have finally started.

Anyways, Happy New Year! ;)
It’s always nice to see a full application as a reference (vs small snippets in docs/blogs), when you have those questions “I wonder how they solved this?”.

Thanks for putting this out there!!
Chronologic Versioning: No more arbitrary version updates and regressions
This study fails to replicate Borra's results.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1538-3873/aaeae0/...
Where to Start
Psycholinguists Are Foolish to Dismiss GPT-2 and Bert
> We will see nuclear power make a resurgence around the world, particularly smaller reactors that are easier to build and safer to operate.

Funny, I was digging into this issue just this morning. One family member supports Andrew Yang, but another won't support anyone who advocates for nuclear power.

Despite Thorium not being fully proven yet, I lean toward agreement with Yang: https://en.howtruthful.com/o/nuclear_power_is_a_crucial_comp...
Pretty sick of hearing this one, it doesn't make any sense. According to who? How about the billions of people celebrating the new decade? It just seems like the rallying cry of buzzkills.

Edit: dear god, it was rhetorical, please stop explaining it. Construct a system in which everyone is correct by making the 0th or 1st year undefined until additional context is established, then use it to stop being a pedant. https://xkcd.com/2249
"Failed to progress forward" - what are you talking about?

The United States - and really the world as a whole - has enjoyed its most prosperous time in all of human history during Gen-X's window of contribution.
Stability is achieved by having excess capacity, then limiting use of that capacity. Societies are not stable due to being right up at their limit; such societies collapse because of external changes push them over the limit.

So, if a stable multistellar society is not building colony ships, it's not because it can't, but because it has chosen not to. How does that uniformity of choice get enforced across time and space?
A list of books recommended by Graham Duncan
I'm curious why not use home assistant, and all the integrations that come with it, and then just expose them as homekit devices if you need/want to use homekit? Seems like it would save you a lot of time and custom code.
I believe 2008 saw the start of mass enforcement of FBAR/FACTA, stricter requirements on foreign banks to report American accounts, etc. Things got much worse with Trump and the Republican congress - with sections 962/965 (transition tax/GILTI tax), and 5471 complexity going through the roof. Anyone with a small business, or any sort of ownership stake, was hit hard by these terribly written laws and their onerous filing requirements. Being an American expat is a giant liability these days, which is sad, because I enjoy being American. Expats will unfortunately never have much of a voice, and I don't expect things to ever improve, only get worse.
Lessons from the Decade
Nothing you just said has anything to do with the war on drugs, which is normally a reference to US policy. If you didn't mean to reference US policy then you should be more specific when you say "war on drugs" on anything in the United States (and this is about a US presidential candidate's would-be policies, so it's unreasonable to assume that isn't what you meant).
UBI is not going to fix our problems. You would do more good rebuilding the million SROs we've torn down in recent decades.

Small, affordable residential spaces in walkable neighborhoods mostly don't exist in the US. Injecting funds won't change that fundamental fact.

Most likely, passing out UBI will actually make it harder to solve underlying problems of that sort because rich people, who have zero need of UBI, will have a new excuse to ignore such problems. UBI will become a reason to say "Quit your bitching!" without having fixed anything.
You’ve misunderstood. I’m not suggesting that the rent would go up because of the increased demand for a living in Austin. I am suggesting that the rent would go up because everybody has at least $1,000 per month of free money, on top of whatever income they earned.
Cervical Cancer: Causes, Symptoms and Treatment
I should expand that the private economy simply isn’t going to provide everyone everything they need-including work but also things work can’t or doesn’t provide. Plenty of full time employees have substandard health care because their employer contracts with an option of that leaves them hanging. Some employers schedule people for exactly less than what would require them to provide benefits, too. They also count toward your balance sheet unemployment rate. The unemployment metric has wide criticisms that I don’t need to regurgitate. This is why I say these metrics don’t do justice to the inspection.
MercuryOS: New OS with a UX That Rejects the Desktop Metaphor and App Ecosystems
2019 In Review and 2020 Goals (with numbers and earnings)
Nitzan and Bichler argue quite convincingly that capital is power - money isn't necessarily power, but money-capital absolutely is.
If that's what you consider ineffective, then what do you consider effective?

There is no single source of GHGs higher than 29%, so if that's ineffective, then every intervention is ineffective.
Very interesting.

Any idea why this happens?

> Exposing the capacitor to light causes it to discharge faster.
(looking square at you, Alexa).

Not Crestron? Commercial home automation largely came on their backs long before Alexa, along with the annoying vendor exclusive peculiarities w/rt interoperability.
Ah, from the mouths of babes.

1) Maybe. Or maybe we fuck it up and we are the penultimate generation of pre-Anthropocene human life. Hard to say for sure. So far, the rich and powerful seem to have little trouble selling their property.

2) Automation will not lead to some sort of wakefulness and critique of capitalism, but just more technocracy. The future is Google being too busy to offer you customer service.

3) China will collapse after their attempts to monopolize the South China Sea fall through.

4) Cryptocurrencies as a technology will collapse after several showstopping protocol-level issues are found. Most notably, a team will crack Satoshi's key and steal their BTC hoard, crashing almost all cryptocurrency prices, while as a runner-up effort, another team will successfully demonstrate forgery of high-difficulty blocks with ironic complexity analysis.

5) The various decentralized mesh networks around the globe will each grow to blanket their metropoloi, and some areas will see their mesh networks merge to create massive clouds of ambient connectivity. Disks will still be expensive, though. In fact, I'll predict another disk supply crash due to a natural disaster, akin to the tsunami from last decade.

6) Most folks around the world do not eat that much meat, and no numbers are listed, so I'll instead say that people will continue to not eat much meat. Perhaps meat consumption in USA, China, etc. will diminish, but probably not.

7) India and China step up their national space programs over the next decade, while ESA and NASA continue operating. Elon Musk is still around because of sheer willpower, but nobody else is really privatizing.

8) Already happened. It will continue to happen. The author's really showing off their bubble with this one.

9) Yes, many Boomers are near the end of their mortal coils. Don't be so morbid about it. I'm not sure if this prediction's at all interesting, since any actuary could make the same prediction without a single cup of coffee.

10) Gene therapy will still be sputtering and straining at the end of the next decade. CRISPR with Cas9 will have been long obsoleted, and nothing will have replaced it. There may be a field of genetic programming, though, where people specialize in writing code using DNA; there will certainly be a field of epigenetics which is distinct from traditional genetics.
Excellent saying - sums it up perfectly.
Multiple parties can benefit from UBI.

You also handwave and make a load of assumptions in each of your statements.
I block most trackers...

but they don't have access to all those sensors on my phone anyways... including camera, microphone, gps, etc... unlike Google on your Android phone. You are comparing apple and oranges.
> All of your probes and colony ships have to reproduce the source culture - or some viable subservient spin-off - with 100% accuracy.

The only thing that needs to be preserved is the desire to build more colonies. I'll grant even that's a stretch, but demanding 100% cultural fidelity is silly for discussing the Fermi paradox.
Like every browser on iOS, it's basically a skin of Safari.
I'm seeing a database error, but there's a similar site with 2020 predictions (and onwards):

https://futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020-2029.htm

Most of the 'predictions' have links explaining why they think this may occur in that timeframe, e.g., this one about exascale computers: https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2021.htm#exascale
Alligator Skin, Human Clones and Other Things Being Banned in 2020
Most individuals have gotten very accustomed to largely not paying (directly) for hosted content/email/etc.

This isn't universal. There are relatively niche sites that people pay to use, or at least have paid tiers. But free is what most people expect. (Look at all the outrage when SmugMug eliminated the 1TB free limit that Yahoo put on Flickr.)
If we want to free people from tyrannical employers, isn’t free healthcare step one? Perhaps some sort of more available food stamps step two?

I would agree with a lot of the criticism of government should not target too closely etc, but those two programs seems pretty well run compared to the free market alternatives. At least when they are allowed to.
By what mechanism does that cause the rent to go up?

The entire reason people are setting up shop in Austin is that it's so much less expensive than San Francisco. If landlords in Austin tried to raise rents then people would go to Kansas City or Buffalo or Louisville.

Some of the landlords would figure out that it's more profitable to have tenants at lower rents than higher rents and no tenants.
Ha! My brother and I tried watching all the variations of Bandersnatch that we could, assuming there wouldn’t be very many and that we’d see all possible clips after 3 or 4 watchings. We got impatient after 3 times through and quit, but still guessed we’d almost covered every possibility. Looks like we were pretty wrong about our guess.
around 5pm with my family
>7/[...] The early years of this decade will produce a wave of hype and investment in the space business but returns will be slow to come and we will be in a trough of disillusionment on the space business as the decade comes to an end.

I guess this depends on SpaceX's success with the Starship - if a rocket that is made outside a cleanroom and with cheap rolled steel frame proves to be usable means that going to space becomes very very accessible.
That depends on your expected standard of living and your pay.

In Utah, the median wage is $15.8/he, which puts you around $32k/year (assuming 250 work days @ 8 hours/day), and the median salary with a bachelor's degree is ~$57k[1]. I'll be looking at the lower figure.

Let's make a few assumptions:

- $15/hr is take home, not gross, and we'll ignore all government programs
- single, and living with roommates is acceptable
- within range of mass transit, so no car needed
- goal is to maintain minimal lifestyle w/o work

It looks like $1200 is a reasonable rent for a 2BR apartment, so $600/month should be doable with one roommate, less with two.

So, here are some expenses:

- rent - $600
- transportation - $85 (unlimited pass for light rail & bus, $200 for commuter rail, but I'm looking within range of the light rail)
- food - $300/month (very generous $10/day, cooking for one could cut this in half)
- utilities - $100/month (shared utilities)

So, $1100/month for basic expenses. $15/hr would get ~$2500/month. If we increase expenses to $1500, that still means ~$1000/month can go toward retirement. If our aim is $1500/month spending, we can estimate the amount we need to stop working using the 4% rule [2], and I'll include a range to go from 3-4% to account for a longer "retirement" (4% is for 30-year retirement, but expenses could be reduced as well).

Amount needed (today's dollars, 4% rule accounts for inflation):

- 3% - $600k
- 4% - $450k

Saving $1k/month for 20 years puts you at ~$500k assuming 7% growth (average growth of stock market after taking inflation into account). This number is approximately in the middle of our range, and 22 years is $600k; monthly investment and return can vary, so 20-25 years seems like a reasonable estimate. If you start at 25, you'd be done by 50, which is way better than the average person, and you can make this less by reducing expenses, increasing income, or utilizing public services.

To make this process easy, we could also use this chart [3], which is based on savings rate. $1k/2.5k = 40% savings rate, which is 22 years according to the chart, which is in line with what I put down here.

The actual story is obviously more complex since I hand-waved medical costs, simplified assumptions, etc, but the general story is valuable. Maybe retiring at 45 isn't practical for everyone, but perhaps working significantly fewer hours is practical. If we simplify our lifestyle, we can be much more financially secure much earlier. I'm sure a savvy individual could earn a bit more (side hustles) and spend a bit less (decrease food expenses, bike instead of taking the bus, etc).

I'm sure the figures look a bit different in various areas, but the root of the matter is that the average person should have a much better outlook than we see on average. I think the solution lies in better education (I doubt the average person understands compound interest), better housing availability (reduce costs), better mass transit, etc.

- [1] https://slchamber.com/median-wage-in-utah/
- [2] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-percent-rule.asp
- [3] https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-si...
How can we get more women in programming?
We really need to even out the battlefield, how do we do this without causing a rebellion? I think it's about time that women have their time representing software
Let me give you another number: Germany's most widely-used postal service, Deutsche Post, delivers more than 61 million letters every day! (source: https://www.iamexpat.de/expat-info/communication/post-mail-g...)

10000 postcards in Germany alone would be 0.01% of that and mypostcard works in multiple EU countries.
According to the Apple prognosticator with the best track record for accurate predictions, Apple will be releasing a new model with the guts of the current flagship in the body of an iPhone 8 for $400 this quarter.

https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2019/10/14/20913321/...

If the prediction is true, that represents a significant advantage in privacy, performance, and years of software support after the sale at that price point.
What makes you think there's an anti-correlation between "approaching 60" and "running many institutions" rather than a correlation?
Pika-Who? How Pokémon Go Confused the Canadian Military
What kind of warranty could you expect for that $1000 engine rebuild job?
Yup. Plus talking about 'VAT on yachts' is nonsensical in the context of funding a basic income anyway. There are a lot of economically inactive people to fund and not many yachts being purchased; wealthy dynasties tend to consume only tiny fractions of the economic rents they can extract from the economy each year. Choosing a consumption tax as a means of funding a UBI ensures that the bulk of the net contribution towards funding it will be paid by the large numbers of people who spend most of their incomes on consumption - i.e the middle classes.
What are the statements I’ve made that are not A) rooted in generally accepted economic theories or B) syllogism based on the other statements?

I don’t expect you’ll reply :]
Decapping and testing this wont be difficult, meaning you understand how individual transistors are located on the die to reorder raw data into planar image. I wonder if this information can be recovered using some known patterns shown to such sensor then retrieving appropriate data and analyzing.

Another interesting thing is that for training neural networks for image recognition purpose information about location of individual pixels is not necessary at all.
> The average person in the West has already surpassed the comfort and standard of living of the average monarch a couple centuries ago

This comparison makes very little sense, because with change in society and social structures, human needs and desires also change. To compare today's person with someone from centuries ago ignores that doctrine. The fact is that kings had the best in society centuries ago, but the majority of people don't have the best in society today. Whether "the best" is accessible is a different matter, but kings had an excellent standard of living in their time period.

It is genuinely confusing why someone would think that saying we live better than a king lived centuries ago is some kind of argument that things shouldn't be further improved. Why, exactly, is the king's standard of living relevant today, other than as a historical curiosity?
Linux distributions: Can't we do without hooks and triggers?
Online learning is a term of art.
I'd bet the farm, all the farms, that your list turns out more correct than the one at the link.

The item on your list I have the biggest issue with is 10. We'll still be catching plenty of fish in the wild (but some places that fish are plentiful today won't be that way) in another 10 years.
It's just a term of art, see also supervised learning, etc etc
Yup, I spent 6 months or so trying to find product-market fit for two different postcard apps, one focused on creating memes and the other focused on sending baby/kid photos to grandparents and family. The latter had much more potential, but the economics were tough due to user acquisition costs. I suspect you could make it work if you had a better marketing strategy that I did. I was trying to get traction through display ads by doing highly targeted social networking campaigns, which seemed like it should be fruitful, and was getting low CPIs ($1-$2) -- however even at that level, and with significant viral loops, growth hacking, and a recurring revenue subscription based model, I just couldn't get the numbers to work.

Ultimately, users seemed to need to see the product before they spend money, so having a trial period of one or two cards seemed essential. Without it, conversions flatlined I suspect since you were asking people to pay for something they couldn't even see the quality of first. These one or two free cards greatly added to acquisition costs, and led to a long, complex acquisition funnel, and so you had to more than make up for sending a lot of free cards with your paying customers while the new leads converted. When you consider the free cards, you were now talking about $3-4 per lead, and with a generous conversion rate of 3% that is approx a $100 cost per customer to acquire them. Surprisingly, over the course of a year or so of a subscription this could actually work if churn was low.

But it was very risky and cost intensive to subsidize the acquisition costs for me personally, so I stopped working on it after sending approx 9k postcards and getting approx 250 customers, who almost entirely churned out after a few months.

I learned a lot from this exercise, one thing was anytime you hear anyone doing this idea, especially if they are VC funded, it's a good idea to bet against them surviving unless you see they have some kind of cheap, high volume, high quality marketing channel.
We wouldn’t need all the infrastructure to ensure only qualified people get welfare. I’ve heard this would make UBI cheaper than what we do now, considering that it would be essentially taxed away from rich people as you say.
Not necessarily, the apparent magnitude is the issue here, not resolving power. Located at a comparable distance, Deimos, the smaller moon of Mars, reaches at most magnitude ~12.5, meaning that any telescopes smaller than 6" to 8" might not even be able to ever detect it's there. And we're talking about a 6.2Km sized moon, not an object with an overall visible area ~40000 times smaller - that would mean an apparent magnitude of ~23-24 as seen from Earth, meaning only the most powerful telescopes on Earth would be barely able to detect that "unresolved dot" - provided it had the same albedo of Deimos.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deimos_(moon)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apparent_magnitude

Edit: corrected
Thanks, apologies if my comment was slightly dismissive. I don't think the replier caught the distinction I was making.
USPTO Shutting Down Bulk Data Services
Ask HN: Would you need a cheap API to access recent news?
Dear HN users,

I am about to build a Data-as-a-Service product -- an API to access the latest published news articles.

There already exist one like that (newsapi.org); however, I think that I can build a substitute of it with much cheaper price (50$ vs 449$).

Also, I began to write about it and I plan to open source all my code so that you can replicate entire infrastructure if needed (because I think it is still cheaper to pay few bucks to and not care about maintaining it).

Anyway, I would like to know if there is anyone who would like to participate in the early beta.

Here is my upcoming Product Hunt page:
https://www.producthunt.com/upcoming/newscatcher

Also, first episode of my blog about how I build it:
https://medium.com/@kotartemiy/building-a-data-as-a-service-product-from-0-to-1-intro-cce63cfad568

Happy New Year everyone, wish you all the best.
The problem is not getting them “in”. The problem is creating an environnement where they can strive and excel.
According to decimal numbers. 1-10, 11-20, 21-30, etc.
There were like 100 major-publisher books that clearly modeled their title, if nothing else, on Gone Girl in the years after it came out. Didn't see that with 50 Shades. Both got a movie. Gone Girl seemed to have wider and more lasting cultural impact outside its immediate readership, as more than a joke or rapidly-fading reference.

For the record I haven't read either nor seen their movies, but I see the influence of Gone Girl around way more than I see 50 Shades.
I agree, but about the part about nationalization of companies. Historically it tended to produce bad outcomes. People just don't put the same effort if they don't own it.

What actually works is government stepping in by producing a competitor when it sees oligopolies developing and the participating companies not innovating further but just undermining each other or colluding to undermine interests of their customers.

For example in the early railroads there were tons of companies building their own railroads instead of coopearing with others to reuse. Telecommunication networks tend to get stuck similarly. That's how AT&T was created to have a single infrastructure entity and lot of competition on top of that infrastructure. Similar situation can be observed in social networks today. The business model for them is not that great unless you infect them with advertisement. Twitter struggled a lot with monetization because it feels more like a infrastructure project similar to roads or phone lines. Perhaps it is time for government to create competing social network or just pump support money to a community created one.
Ask HN: What non-profit but helpful project to work on in 2020?
Happy New Year 2020!

My new years resolution is to build at least one non profit project that could be helping someone, even if its just small group of people, or just one person. Can you share your or closed ones needs, please?
Dominic Cummings https://dominiccummings.com/an-index-of-blogs-articles-paper...