skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> Facebook will be the Google of the decade.
> Google will be the Microsoft of the decade.
> Microsoft will be the IBM of the decade.

The "decade" timeline doesn't quite fit but to be honest this wasn't a bad prediction [1].

> Facebook will be the Google of the decade.

This feels very accurate, down to the people. There's plenty of ex-Googlers at Facebook, including Sheryl Sandberg, who essentially built Facebook from "a really cool site" to the profitable ad business it is now.

Google bought YouTube in 2006, and now it's a huge economy of content creators. Facebook bought Instagram in 2012, and it's now a growing economy of influencers. There's plenty of differences of course, but in the ad-tech space it's Google then Facebook, in Machine Learning it's Google and Facebook. What big companies are releasing cool open source software, adopted by millions of developers? Google and Facebook.

Miss-information, hate speech, political controversy and issues with publishers? Facebook and Google/YouTube. In terms of data-tracking only Google is comparable to Facebook— or rather only Facebook is comparable to Google? Virtually complete dominance of a key-part of the web? Google and Facebook. Number of users? I could argue only Android and Facebook are at point where they have to provide free internet to people to gain more users. Diversification into hardware? First Google, then Facebook.

The list goes on. Facebook is (perhaps too ruthlessly, and "breaking too many things") largely another "Google" in many ways. Not sure if this is what the prediction was getting at, but it's interesting to think about.

> Google will be the Microsoft of the decade.

Right now it feels like this is happening. Right now, Google is ubiquitous and feels unbeatable like Microsoft. It also has (1) platform dominance in web and OS and key services, (2) an incredibly diverse set of products and (3) anti-competitive behavior stemming from this dominance. It also has (4) a thick layer of middle-management fighting for relevance leading to (5) lots of product churn, worsened by (6) lack of focus due a "vision" vacuum in upper-management.

I'd suspect the next few years without Page or Brin will be interesting. It'll also be interesting to see if Google 1. Can pull of hardware (Pixel was a good start, but the latest iteration has a lot of reviewers disappointed) 2. Can focus (Android, Chrome OS or Fuchsia? Will they commit to a messaging service?) and 3. Can deliver new products that stick.

> Microsoft will be the IBM of the decade.

Up until Satya Nadella took over in 2014 and his changes started materializing later in the decade this largely sounded like it was the case— old stagnant company, held mostly by slow-to-change enterprise customers, and little in the way of new products.

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026088
Via seo spam and other types of spam that are indistinguishable from real content?
> each week we will have to manually fetch the file and put it into an XlS file.

Could you just automate this bit? Please your boss and remove the manual task from your duties?
I would have said the trucker's hitch, but there are other "ratcheting" knots that would work well in this scenario.

https://goneoutdoors.com/rope-knots-give-ratcheting-effects-...
The part that concerns me, is that this always seems to be one-sided - "You will be better if you adopt our values"

Rarely does anybody make the statement that "My adoption of your values will improve me"

Implicit subtext is that, all of my values are better than yours. Strikes me that this is probably quite unlikely.
They use less powerful TX but it doesn't matter if the location tracking is passive, no?

For triangulation, 2 measurement points are good enough if you only need the 2D location: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/True_range_multilateration#Two... - but of course home wifi environment is full of reflections and attenuations caused by the surrounding structures so straight triangulation doesn't work anyway.
The Google AI mammogram paper is FLAWED. Want to learn why?
"Have you written much assembler?"

I have written lots of MOS6502, MC68000 and UltraSPARC assembler, as I come from the demo and cracking scene. That's where I grew up.
The ownership of a domain name is not guaranteed - even just in HN there are multiple stories of domains being taken away for questionable reasons.
Does anyone think it’s 4chan/8chan-types trolling because they have nothing better to do or malicious competitors/state actors trying to disrupt YT because they want to see it harmed?
A lot of people think that tmobile and metro PCS merger really benefited the mobile carrier industry.

While there were more companies before the merger, verizon and at&t were dominating that a long tail of small companies was not true competition.

When tmobile merged, it started to add a true 3rd competitor to the scene and they were the first to do a lot of stuff with unlimited data. Many people attribute verizon and at&t following suit to their initial move.

Of course this is speculation as no one can prove casual linkage between these events, but it seems pretty plausible.
A few weeks ago 5 senior pentagon officials resigned [1], probably over this. This can easily be the start of war with Iran.

[1]: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/475205-fifth-pentagon-off...
Yes but only if they are at layer 3 implementation support is variable
Great job at deriving a Fermi estimate! (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem)
> Neither was user generated content (that's what the original web was)

The fall and return of the cat picture still amuses me. In the early days of Web adoption when people would put up a personal home page just for the thrill of having one, stereotypically the only bits of content they would be able to come up with for it were a list of favourite bands and one or more scanned-in pictures of their cat. So for years and years afterwards cat pictures were a synechdote, a punchline for jokes about the naïvety of the early Web. Then phone cameras and low-effort social media became big, and ...
Apple does not prohibit the GPL.
Some people such as the FSF say it is incompatible, but Apple isn't stopping people from publishing GPL apps.

That's why Signal added a rider which explicitly allows their app on the App Store - So it's not a factor here.
Can any of the upvoters briefly explain why it's worthy of upvoting?
It's pretty easy to test for Carbon Monoxide - can use a small handheld device that looks like a breathalyzer.
are you saying you have a child with a cell phone or tablet that has location services explicitly turned off ?

i dunno, seems negligent to me
(I'm one of the Cloud TPU product leads)

We've seen multiple BERT-related PyTorch models training successfully on Cloud TPUs, including training at scale on large, distributed Cloud TPU Pod slices.

Would you consider filing a GitHub issue at https://github.com/pytorch/xla or emailing pytorch-tpu@googlegroups.com to provide a bit more context about the specific issue you encountered?

Here's the current PyTorch/TPU troubleshooting guide, which provides information on how to collect and interpret metrics that are very helpful for debugging:
https://github.com/pytorch/xla/blob/master/TROUBLESHOOTING.m...

Thanks!
This is a good point - the cable is probably 20+ years old and has been used for weed eaters and lawn mowers. It's been regularly uncoiled and re-coiled, not always correctly.

The correct way is using the over-and-under technique:
https://www.popularmechanics.com/home/tools/a15873/over-unde...
>I have a couple VR headsets and, like someone on reddit recently observed, they sit mostly gathering dust - but, when I do put one on, I will use it for hours.

That was one of the key factors that influenced the design of Oculus Quest. Carmack spoke often of minimising the "time-to-first-fun" in both hardware and software. A VR headset that you can just put on and start using is meaningfully different to a VR headset that requires even the most moderate amount of setup.

> I would love to be able to easily use a VR helmet in conjunction with a keyboard/mouse/hands

Oculus Quest already supports the Bluetooth pairing of keyboards and mice, which can then be used to wirelessly interact with a remote PC via Virtual Desktop. We don't yet have a mechanism for tracking the position of keyboards and mice, but it's pretty much trivial if there's a market for it - we just need keyboards and mice with embedded IR markers.

Controllerless hand tracking is in beta on Quest and developers have access to the APIs; official support should be rolling out in the next couple of months.

The resolution is still much lower than we'd like, but 1440 x 1600 per eye provides a marginally tolerable experience for desktop computing. The HP Reverb already provides 2160 x 2160 per eye, so we're very close to having headsets that can truly replace a conventional monitor.
My guess is either one of two scenarios, possibly both:

1. WASM develops into a security model that's much closer to native hardware, more like a container that's shipped with a browser. It's probably more accurate to say that your desktop might still be important in this model, but from a user perspective, the app will "live" inside your browser.

2. Apps become more like consoles that stream the output of what you're running rather than the entirety of your data. The computing will happen on cloud-compute, but you could interact with the final product in your browser. Similar to Stadia.
There's an entire existing engineering field about this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wi-Fi_positioning_system

Here's a paper from 2015 that is vocers exploiting the multiple antennas in recent access points, and other techniques: http://conferences.sigcomm.org/sigcomm/2015/pdf/papers/p269....
How to Build Your Resume on NPM
SSDs May Get Pricey This Year with NAND Prices Expected to Rise 40%
If you use a taut-line hitch or equivalent, you can crank down on the "pulley" after tying the final knot.
https://www.daemonology.net/phttpget/
Cyberhack: Maastricht University Pays Ransom
I’m not arguing against US CO2, but the likelihood of those numbers for China being anywhere near accurate is small.
I would use a trucker's hitch, personally.

Instructions:
https://www.animatedknots.com/truckers-hitch-knot

Unrelated music video about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUHgGK-tImY
Show HN: Craydom – a pure view abstraction in ES6
Quest and Rift S have more than twice the resolution of DK2.
Two (and More) Can Play at This Game
We start to enter the post literate age with more information online conveyed through video and symbology then text. Computers become less and less understood by the masses of people who use them. Moore's law ending means software no longer sees gains from its complements and efficiency matters more. Cloud compute margins start getting squeezed as new entrants optimize more and customers evaluate data center ownership or partial leasing more favorably.
Windows disk space requirements (log-log scale)
Noice. I “kicked the tires” on an iPad Pro. LGTM!
I just ask my Google home to ring my phone
But if you were say reference a paper, that indicates a genetic predisposition to addictive substances..
We use PRTG with tons of sensors to catch situations like that.

Imho: The requirement to alert when WIFI is down is not stupid.
They didn't really go that wrong, Cori and Trinity are still useful machines. But I can say for computational science, programming models have gotten way better in the last few years. Now it's as easy to get a new sparse algorithm to high occupancy on a GPU as it is to scale on a manycore CPU. So GPUs just look better now considering cost, power efficiency and software support.
That looks really nice. Kudos to them. These are nice enough that Apple could acquire them.

Too bad it’s still possible to bend the iPad Pro in without much force or pressure. This keyboard would be a big reason to consider an iPad Pro.

I ended up with an iPad mini for this reason, but the thought of an iPad mini pro would be intriguing. I hope someone might make a keyboard (maybe expanding) for the iPad mini
SEEKING WORK | Austin or Remote

I’m John, a full stack developer with experience doing C#, SQL Server, React, and Python Flask. I am passionate about Clojure, React, and willing to work with any tech stack really!
I am available to begin early February!
There is an entire genre of club/nighttime music called “acid”, fwiw.
and? Wheres the research data and test results? or are we just supposed to take you at your word?
China's credit bubble is huge and it is getting worse every year, it has to implode some point. Especially when the workforce is shrinking without economic reforms.
Practical parenting perspecive: Read them bedtime stories for 30 minutes or longer every evening. (I'm assuming your kids are still young enough for bedtime stories.)

And that's YOU. READ. Not some podcast or audiobook.

It's about time together. It's about you doing voices for the characters. It's about the low visual content of books that activates young imaginations. It's about reading longer books (when they're old enough to be ready for it, of course) that might take a month or longer to read so that they learn about delayed gratification, learn long-term continuity skills.

Banning tech from kids' lives altogether seems unnecessary and is probably impossible (though minimising it seems advisable!) but, above all, it's balance that's wanted.
That'll be so interesting to see. It'll certainly put even more pressure on anti-abortionists to be honest about whether they care about the well-being of humans or whether they care about controlling women...
I’m curious what this would look like tying dress shoes with a Berluti knot.[0] (I don’t think this knot is in the ABOK, but I could be wrong.[1])

0. https://www.hangerproject.com/blog/2018/01/12/berluti-knot-t...

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ashley_Book_of_Knots
The Autism History Project
>It's still Virtual Reality.

It really isn't. 6DoF with hand presence is profoundly, fundamentally different to 3DoF. It's the difference between someone taking off the headset after a brief demo and saying "that was cool" versus someone taking off the headset and needing a moment to recalibrate their sense of reality. 3DoF is a panoramic monitor, 6DoF is being there.
Nobody is evading anything lol.

> The situation with other countries is irrelevant to the matter of California income evading federal taxes.

No it’s very relevant. You’re trying to have it both ways. Either the state represents an arm of the government in which case taxing taxes makes no sense or it’s more akin to a country on its own where you could make the argument double taxation makes sense. But you argue it’s part of the government to the extent it should be contributing to your state but autonomous enough that it should be double taxed.

> As viewed from outside California, money owed to the federal government is staying in California to be spent for the benefit of people in California. That simply isn't fair.

If you want those services you can move to California. However that money isn’t wasted it’s used to support the people and economy of California which in turn would by itself be the 6th biggest economy in the world. That money is being invested in California and other states benefit from the tax revenue it generates.

> If you are unhappy with the resulting high tax rate, you can leave the state or you can try to get the state to eliminate taxes.

No haha I’m good, then I wouldn’t live in California where the state invests in its people (to an extent).

You can perform all the mental gymnastics you want to justify this but I think you’d feel differently if a democratic administration wanted to tax the tax revenue paid by oil companies or lord help us carbon. This was done plain and simple to own the libs on the coast. Anything else is backing out a justification and fighting for double taxation isn’t a good look.
1/ We will use neural nets to index the physical world in the same way we index the web.

2/ A low fee payment system will become mainstream, severely undercutting the payment processing networks. (My money would be on centralized, inspired by cryptocurrencies.)

3/ Labeling images for neural nets will become a popular low-skilled job.

4/ Personal email will be slowly forgotten, likely from being so bogged down from corporate communications. It will occupy a similar space that physical mail does today; the occasional really important communication surrounded by garbage that you can't stop.

5/ China will make major technological gains against the US due to their relaxed intellectual property laws and the ability to innovate upon other people's work.

6/ Self driving cars will become common, people will prefer it. It will likely only exist in limited places (i.e. freeways) and be supported by infrastructure changes (machine readable signs, lane makings, and car to car communication).

7/ The ad economy will die down as more end to end encrypted services are adopted. The vision here would be a cell phone company that doesn't sell your location data because you authenticate to the cell tower with a zero knowledge proof. (Ha, implying the telcos could or would replace their infrastructure in the next decade!)

8/ The climate will become a priority in production (e.g. food), with people asking which method is greener rather than which is cheaper. Perhaps incintevized by the government through taxes or subsidies.

9/ A new political party will be created in the US in backlash to corporatism of current two.

See you in 2030!
Well then every SaaS is just consulting. That’s pretty pointless then.
I have successfully used the freezer trick a few times to recover a hard drive. It did work in those instances and I documented it here:

https://battlepenguin.com/tech/freezing-a-hard-drive/

If you can, leave the hard drive in the freezer while you access it. Only works for old spinny hard drives of course.
Yup, that's why climbers replaced it with the figure-eight loop decades ago. Which is a bitch to untie after loading, but at least it won't self-upset.
I love PyTorch, but I’m not confident the claim that it is the most popular is close to true. The cited link, which brings up a lot of new research is in PyTorch simply doesn’t account for the amount of TensorFlow in production.

Sure, a lot of academics may be embracing PyTorch, but almost all production models have been in TensorFlow. Tesla is a huge notable example that’s using PyTorch at scale.

I do suspect that the split of TensorFlow 1 and 2 is perhaps one of the worst times for TF 2, many teams will likely try out PyTorch instead.

I think both are amazing frameworks, however TF was designed for Google Scale .... which leads to a lot of difficulties since 99.9 are not at Google scale.
Neuroscientists Discover New Kind of Signal in the Human Brain
I don’t see the connection between Apple releasing laptops with ARM and Apple releasing laptops with iOS.

I do wish they’d do more with the smart connectors...
1. Renewables are dominant source of energy. Every new house is energy positive. Wind and solar are primary for
industrial sources.

2. ICE vehicles are quaint. New electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029.

3. Autonomous vehicles L4/L5 are still 'just around the corner'

4. Ubiquitous Gigabit wifi/cellular/sat data across most of the world.

5. Masses still don't care about privacy.

6. Not much change in top tech companies - FAANG still around and maintain their leadership in tech domains as of now
for the most part.

7. Android has been replaced with Fuchsia with Fuchsia being able to run APKs built for android. Phone apps are mostly
a combination of WASM apps with native UI. Most non-tech people are unaware as usual.

8. Atleast a couple of cities in the world come to the brink of disaster/or become unlivable due to climate change (most
likely in India/China). At least one major war due to climate change.

9. Workloads are all massively parallelized; low end desktop cpu parts start with 32 cores.

10. WASM adoption skyrockets. In 2030, OS is almost immaterial since most of the core functionality is provided by WASM
payloads; OS is only used to paint native UIs (for which there still isn't a good cross platform solution)

11. Deepfakes are ubiquitous; Audio/Video evidence is no longer accepted; A lot of companies pour money into creating
verfiably unmodified video/audio - but it isn't solved yet.
Im confused, where is the bullying in that clip? All I see is the smartest person in the room getting frustrated.
Are they selling an iOS virtualization software or a virtual IOS instance ? If the later then the analogy isn’t accurate if the former then I suppose you are correct (if the compatibility laws override the iOS license)

Edit people in the rest of the thread are saying that a modified iOS is provided by them
How does oculus link on the quest compare to the latest-gen rift? Is there any reason to buy the rift any more?
This is why I like to stick around HN and just read. The minds here seem to be much more brilliant compared to other parts of the web. That dude nailed it!
It's fun to see how some of these in general accurate, but others were very far off. For example:

> Facebook will be gone in 5 years, just like MySpace. Half a dozen companies will rise and fall in replacing it. The web will churn even faster than it did before. [1]

Love the reply to this one. "Probably the best prediction I've read on this thread." [2]

There's also [3]:

> * During the second half of the decade, the Chinese bubble will burst. This will be a quite heavy shock. A lot of people will lose a lot of money. A younger/more populist group of politicians will assume power in China.

> * Functional programming / dynamic languages will go out of fashion. People still using them will be judged as incompetent programmers by the people who moved on to the new fashionable programming paradigm(s). At the same time, huge corporations will embrace functional programming / dynamic languages and third world universities will start focusing on them in their courses.

> * Lady Gaga will be the new Madonna.

To be honest I don't know about pop to know if this is true, but it sounds to me like Katy Perry might've out-Madonna'd Gaga.

Even the original post has some that didn't turn out as expected:

> - Major changes will happen in Iran, one way or the other. The current trajectory they are on does not seem sustainable for a decade.

Little did they know, yes? Kind of, after the election of Hassan Rouhani and an eventual nuclear deal, although that particular milestone would be scrapped after a big change in government happened in the USA.

> - Ubiquitous computing will finally arrive, with smart cards/RFID on our bodies seamlessly interacting with computers in our environment. As you walk up to your refrigerator, for instance, you're logged in and presented with a customized display. Same goes for the car or the entertainment surface at the Dentist's.

Little did they know at the end of the decade this would be DOA after a series of scandals made people realize maybe privacy is way more important than logging into your refrigerator with a customized display. Also, as it turns out, dentist equipment churn, at least where I'm from, is incredibly slow and still lacking an "entertainment surface" beyond maybe a TV if you're lucky.

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027153

[2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027260

[3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025770