skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> In Russia Putin will retire in 2024 and transition to the new leadership will be soft and non-violent. Likely this will mean some positive changes in internal and foreign policy.

I doubt that. Just because the constitution says Putin must retire in 2024 doesn't mean that he will. He could change the constitution to stay in power longer, outright ignore it, or transition into a different official role but still wield the power: consider the swapping trick he did with Medvedev a decade ago. Furthermore, the corruption in Russia has been running so deep and so long that any successor is going to have a large degree of ideological similarity with and loyalty to Putin--everyone who hasn't has been purged and will be disqualified from any attempted succession race.
It's also been quite a decade of growth for old stodgy languages. In 2010, it seemed like C++, Java, and Javascript were never going to change, but they've all significantly cleaned up their acts.

I think the prediction still had a kernel of truth to it though - every edge that chip manufacturers and JIT developers can give us has been burned away on slower and slower client-side rendering frameworks.
I would contest that, The CPU power advantage was considerable, the 68000 took 4 clocks to add two registers, anything fancier took more, compared to the ARM where you could build the kitchen sink and shift it across a bit in a clock. That was why the 3D performance was so much better. but to gain the capabilities that were available in 2D the advantages of playfields, sprites and copper lists you'd need far more CPU power.
* The demand/supply of customized compute, or specialized compute, will accelerate. Utilizing dirt-cheap technology of bygone eras will allow fabs to spring up and satisfy the niche demands of various industries. GPUs were a bridge for floating-point heavy tasks, FPGAs will begin to satisfy the needs of even more, and eventually will culminate in many industries sponsoring custom chips for their needs.

* We will see level 5 autonomous cars. They will be relegated to rent-seeking behavior. There may be some opposition, but in the end those who can create autonomous cars will turn them into reoccurring revenue.

* Custom manufacturing capacity will increase. Hobbyists will continue to iterate on 3D Printing technology until "The Reliable" solution comes to fruition and "It Just Works," allowing any household to produce any sort of plastic part they need. Further down this path, fully automated factories will start this decade. It will be expensive, at first, but, soon, it will be as easy as submitting a CAD file to get 1,000 custom parts delivered fully autonomously, and for a price cheaper than most other options. We may see the rise of fully custom car culture, and an uproar over safety.

* This decade's AI, or, compute-assisted task completion usage will rise. Custom physical/virtual interfaces will be created to satisfy any task. Jobs will be lost. Nothing will be done, except the occasional per institution protest. Other jobs will be created, but I can't predict what industries will crop as a result of it.

* The Four Horsemen of the Infopocolypse will continue to be referenced against any form of privacy or encryption. No progress will be made on either front, and certain individuals in power will continue to treat any sort of encryption as villain-tier behavior.

* Web and JavaScript (and all related technologies) will continue to grow and dominate. Chromebooks just came out too early. 2020-2030 we will see compelling browser-only experiences.

* Compute could become commoditized or even converted to a utility. Everything between 'local RAM' and 'cloud RAM' will be abstracted away. With the rise of custom chips, we will see even better virtualization technologies rise. Computers will drift towards compute-less terminals.
I would interpret that to mean disney starts being considered a peer of the FAANG companies by investors and job applicants. i.e. FAANG becomes FAANGD
> Half of those predictions read like "the thing that is a trend now, will continue to be a trend"

And yet, people regularly think "a decade is a long time, surely this trend will be finished by then". Recognizing that existing trends are still likely valid is worthwhile.
It's interesting how closely these estimates correspond to military TOEs. It's almost like we've figured out over the course of thousands of years what the most effective general-purpose hierarchical organization is.
How many days do you think there were in 2019...? :-)
Neither was user generated content (that's what the original web was) or social networking (irc, email, bulletin boards, etc). Making it useful and usable beyond an academic and techie niche was new.
Internet Explorer 6 could have been the dominant browser essentially forever if Microsoft hadn’t zeroed its investment into it. Its incentives weren’t aligned with a robust web platform. Google’s incentives are definitely aligned for Chrome to dominate.
> SJW-ism

can you use a more real, adultish, less 4channic term to describe what you mean by this? Best I can tell "SJW" means anything from "anyone I disagree with" to "anyone who's not openly an asshole".
Good approach. Much of software engineering is applying principals like event sourcing judiciously. Why does the whole system need to be in one architecture?
Why does Facebook have 3 sets of emojis?
FDA crackdown on flavoured vape products
Amazon and Microsoft have extremely deep benches of talent when it comes to cloud, and both have a huge % of the market share combined. Google has had presences in Seattle for almost a decade. I really don't see the logic with the kind of money Google is throwing around. It's not like Kurian was cheap.

I think it's more a failure of leadership and vision on Google's part. A symptom of the company transitioning from engineering led to MBA/Business.
I'm thinking supercompilation might be another part of the equation as long as we're talking extended composition of modules and types whose behavior is totally closed. Having a pipeline that can supercompile when systems are pushed in production even if some compilation time is traded for performance at development (maybe "local" supercompilation for subsystems relevant to a development team?) would be an interesting thing. But I don't know.
I'm skeptical about this. This past year we've seen two major car sharing services take a huge hit. ReachNow was suddenly shut down and Car2Go pulled out of the US. If you end up being right, the car sharing companies will have to go back to the drawing board to create a new business model.
$$$ + short term squeeze.

I think social media sites benefit from short term squeeze due to most of them being driven by influence, trends, and generation which dies off after a while. Unless you can retain and acquire users by switching interface with time, create an ongoing effect or lock in ecosystem. It will fade off.

Social media also has the need for accessibility thus paid models won't scale to billion dollar monsters.

I have some hope for new social media platforms with non compulsory subscription option providing extra perks than the free one to run.

Example - Discord
Yes they would be a huge boon, but I don't think it will happen. And I'm still bullish on rideshare anyway.

That was the story that Uber/Lyft sold to their investors prior to their IPOs. Here's a fantastic (and long) article by Tim O'Reilly that:

https://qz.com/1540608/the-problem-with-silicon-valleys-obse...

Despite that I still think rideshare is valuable and there's no going back. I think Uber and Lyft will raise their prices significantly and people will take them anyway.
Smartwatch <-> Phone finding via bluetooth is builtin mostly.
Well, the alternative is for every last written thing at a company--jokes, gripes, mistakes--to be scrutinized and taken out of context in court by an opposing side's legal team.
This should be fun!

1. Gaming consoles are essentially coming to an end. Die-hard gamers still buy dedicated systems but for the most part everything is available to stream.

2. 5G turned out to be a bust. The low latency, fastest version will still have a relatively small amount of coverage compared to the size of the United States

3. Multiple companies will provide internet via low orbit satellites, some of which will have a low enough latency that some phones will use them as a sort of "global phone" or will be their dedicated ISP.

4. Disney buys PlayStation, EA and at least one more, large studio.

5. Microsoft buys Activision

6. A lot of hype around general AIs but most experts still think they're truly far away. Several will exist by 2030 but they won't be true general AI but will be good enough that companies will get away with calling them that.

7. C++ has a working package dependency system that works as well as npm does for JavaScript. Almost every library is available this way. C++ starts to gain market share due to this and further improvements to standard libraries.

8. Native UI solutions that work kinda like React are more widely available. Think C++, Rust and GO with UIs that are as easy to build as they were in JavaScript.

9. Domain names are starting to go away in favor of a sort of distributed search that works well like Google search but isn't under any single company's direct control.

10. Apple will build more macOS like features into iPad so you can do more with it (such as develop software directly on it). They will also, finally, add touch to their Laptop screens.
* Uber and Lyft will hit a crises as they keep losing money. They may still be around in 2029 but be smaller as their prices will be at "break even" levels.

* Driverless cars will still not be a thing outside experimental deployments. Safety drivers still needed outside of restricted environments (perhaps office parks).

* Electric cars will be an increasing percentage of cars sold. But still only a minority of new cars sold.

* Small electric vehicles (Scooters, ebikes, etc) will be more popular. Most people will own their own.

* Delivery Bots will take off. They will deploy fast in 100s of cities worldwide like electric scooters did in 2018 & 2019. Cities and Governments will struggle to adapt

* Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies will still be a niche. The average person will have no interaction with them and they will not be used for regular transactions

* Artificial meat and milk will take a growing percentage of the market. The drop in demand and prices will cause further drops in farming incomes and disruption in areas/countries that depend on it.
You have to accept EULAs to download it, surely.
Python is eating the world. In many measures, Python is slower than Ruby.
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Our company is 2 years old and the leading platform for high school esports across America. We provide student athletes an opportunity to compete for their school for state-championship titles, in games such as League of Legends and Rocket League.

We're hiring engineers who can help us define the future of esports, as we expand into new markets and add yet-to-be-announced games in 2020. Our engineering team is tight-knit and driven, with incredible leadership under Neel Palrecha (VP Engineering at Headspace, Director of Eng. at Beats Music). We offer excellent benefits and competitive salaries. Our culture is honest, fun, respectful, and hard-working--no bs! And we like to play video games. :)

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They'll simply have redundant copies of that logic. And they'll be physically located at areas of the wafer that yield well - some areas are much worse than others and I would imagine they'll make use of that.
Because most people aren't interested in buying a bunch of devices to plug in at the edges of their house on the off chance it'll catch a lost charged device reaching out via wireless instead of just cleaning ;).
I was recently visiting family in southern california and every FBO wanted a minimum 2 hour checkout, and a minimum 1 hour of ground school covering the LAX/SNA airspace. There was an additional checkout process to visit Catalina Island, and the FBOs "strongly discouraged" flying with pax and instructor before the checkout process had been completed. All to fly a C172. Crazy amount of friction. I'm grateful OA tried to solve this problem even though they weren't in my home area.
Wow reading all those predictions sound so foolish! Most were way off, goes to say why long term predictions is so hard.
What sucks is that it's now really, really, really hard to find the quality personal / enthusiast sites and blogs that are out there unless you already know what specific search terms will lead you to it. Searching using terms on Google that _should_ spit out a first-page result to those sites no longer does. Google now prioritizes results containing fake SEO-optimized pseudo blogs and paid-for "review" sites.

It's crazy how useless Google has become for discovering independent niche content -- it used to be so easy. And DDG and Bing aren't any better. So yeah there may be more out there than ever before, but if you can't find it... does it really exist?
Thanks for posting 2. I see software as the new legal profession. We will be the next victims of automation we are writing. Already, I bet a solid 75% of enterprise developers could be made redundant with managed services. There is diminishing need for startups. I have never been less optimistic about the field. This is just after waves and waves of CS graduates are entering the market and most indicators are pointing toward recession (cfo surveys, yield curve, gdp / corporate profit growth, pmi).
Just because you wouldn't buy an iphone instead, doesn't make it not theft.
The only one that matters:

No significant progress will be made on climate change, and the fact that the world really is ending and we're facing world war 3 becomes a significant cause of depression for young people.
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Opportunities are ideal for those that have an interest in designing and building large-scale, distributed, web-based platforms, utilizing cutting-edge technologies.

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parent may have been referring to actual incident (sorry no citation handy) in the early days of kindle devices, in which 1984 had its contents remotely altered (ie, subtly changed, not deleted). to me that's the most apt conceivable book title to make a pretty chilling point about trustworthy media.
If you don't accept push notifications, sure, you wouldn't technically be using APNS - the tokens change every time you give access for notifications. Last I checked, there's a connection to APNS running on every device or something... so blocking it would be interesting.

You'll be SOL on iOS anyway, ultimately - you're def not building it yourself with Xcode without an Apple account. Jailbreaking may be a fit here, but in defense of Signal, jailbreaking was kinda dead for a few years and only recently became usable again. Altstore[1] is... interesting, but I don't have enough experience with it to comment further.

I get what you're after, but Signal's not about to ignore the massive iOS userbase, and these are defining parts of the iOS ecosystem currently. You either play by those rules or you probably don't grow.

[1] https://altstore.io
Can you read? In what way did I hint that?
In terms of language design, it seems like swift and julia are the most forward looking.

I personally don't think swift will ever escape the Mac ecosystem, just like Objective-C never did, but something with the same DNA will.

In the same way that Objective-C and Ruby both implement the philosophy of Smalltalk, I think that philosophy has yet to be fleshed out in a simple syntax that is natively jit'ed/compiled.

The same goes for julia as an answer to R/pandas.
> you have less than a minute to freeze the RAM before the contents become useless. This can be done with a can of cold spray.

I wonder what their approach to a laptop with poor serviceability would be. I think it would take me more than a minute to get physical access to the ram of some modern computers.
TCP blocking is seen the most on mobile data connections. The LTE could be delivering whole megabytes of correct data but if that TCP connection is missing just one packet it must buffer all the rest until it can get that SACK / ACK back to the server and get the missing packet.

It happens on WiFi too but not as badly.
Lots of people are horrified that we used to put lead in everything.
#2 : I agree on still no AGI - from even 2 decades from now however job looses I disagree with, just like Industrial Age job losses will happen with more and more automation but at the same time new types of jobs will be created (not as many as the ones lost).
Originally I was using n separate keys, however switched to splitting the key based on advice from a redditor. I'll switch back to n keys and see if it slows things down much.

I'll also have a look into ssss, thanks :)
Out of curiosity, I implemented the same using websockets. You'll obviously need a real implementation of a request-response interface, but this will do for the test:

// server
ws.on('message', msg => {
switch (msg) {
case 'collection':
return ws.send([...generate 500 links ...])
case 'item':
return ws.send(...generate item...)
}
})

//client
ws.send('collection');
ws.onmessage = e => {
const msg = JSON.parse(e.data)
switch (msg.type) {
case 'collection':
collection.forEach(item => ws.send('item'))
case 'item':
items.push(item);
}
}

It finishes in 140-150ms, around the same time as the best HTTP version. That's without any caching and the client requesting each of the 500 items, when in fact the server could just push them. I'm surprised WS is not used more often for data exchange.

EDIT: actually ~50ms after removing the console.log() I added for each message...
- 2021: surprising and positive-themed social/election event, probably India

- 2023: Non-terrestrial (or non homo-sapiens intelligent) life confirmed.

- 2023: Space/solar-system tourism or mass publicity of human space missions.

- 2024: First commercial autonomous human-like bipedal standalone android

- 2025: Geo-volvanic/tectonic/oceanic disaster on same order of magnitude as Indian ocean tsunami but not as severe.

- 2027: "Pseudo" AGI system. You can talk and interact with it and it has all the answers but it's still not quite "all there".

- 2029: A lot of people die and infrastructure damaged in war act/atmospheric/solar event.
* VR finally takes off for real, creating the next app store style payday as killer apps come online.

* A VR content studio becomes a billion dollar business

* At the end of the 2020's, China hits a demographic wall it can't easily recover from.

* The ICE collapse begins in earnest in the latter half of 2020's.

* Bitcoin's value will crater as the untethering happens (See NY AG lawsuit), leading to a crypto winter

* Google has entered "Day 2" and will have a major competitor in the next 10 years. Day 2 can be seen by the anti-consumer wall of paid results it has, just like the stodgy competitors it beat 10 years ago had. Also, founders left.

* SPA's will be considered an anti pattern

* Massive recession hits

* Inflation

* Tesla becomes Amazon sized due to the intersection of falling battery prices, solar prices, and the tipping point for ICE practicality
The only thing hospital mergers do in my area is to consolidate the billing and turn it into an absolute non forgiving nickel-and-dime machine.
Java will still be among the top 3 programming languages in the IT/Software world.
Progressivism and conservatism are not equivalent to reform. I disagree with your assessment insofar as the terms are commonly used today. Now that gay marriage is legal, is this now a conservative cause? Would it now be progressive to argue for it to be banned? If I argue for zero federal income taxes, is that a conservative cause or a progressive one? How about if I argue for doubling the income tax?

The problem is that drinking in and of itself is not immoral. But certainly immoral behavior can become exacerbated by excessive alcohol or drugs intake. That much should be obvious on its surface.
MacOS (and presumably iOS ?) avoid "legal hackintosh" by adding to the EULA that you can only receive a license to run macOS on mac hardware, not just by owning a mac hardware separately.
United States assassinates high ranking Iranian military leader in Baghdad
I think the country is going to become very, very divided.
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Hi, writing from Pulsar, an audience intelligence company: we aim to change the way organizations understand audiences and public opinion through social listening, audience segmentation, and AI.

We're looking for a digital marketer to help us grow.
For this job you’ll need to know your way around:
- Hubspot
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Question is: what happens when those tools fail? How far down the technology stack can you function?

I'm not suggesting a large/dominating percentage of your time go to this. I am suggesting you (and the kids in question) go off-grid to see what extends beyond "today's world" and how others live in it without the tools you have.
Here's what I've found useful in helping to remember dreams:
Set an alarm to wake yourself 2-3 hours earlier than you normally do, then fall back to sleep. Upon waking at my usual hour I'm usually able to recall quite vividly whatever dream(s) I had over that 2-ish hour period.
Name a few UDP-based protocols whose implementations do not listen to only a specific port number, or a rely on port numbers established as part of the protocol flow, then?
Disagree on the smartphone one, they will actually be the main personal gadget replacing even laptops and complemented by other types of wearables.
It’s all about the spices and sauces. Doesn’t matter if you’re cooking steak or tofu, it doesn’t have to be boring.
I watched Joker in the cinema the other night. As the credits rolled I wondered if I should stay to see any post-credits scenes. I googled it quickly, and got this long-winded article as one of the top results: https://www.thewrap.com/does-joker-movie-have-post-credits-s...

Fucking hell, so much SEO-attracting bullshit instead of just 2 bytes (N and O). It even blahs blahs that "you are here because you want to know if the movie has post-credits scenes". And the next paragraph repeats the fucking question!
My goodness, but Macrovoices by Erik Townsend is GREAT.
Macrovoices.com
Ignore the latest episode with Pippa Malmgren, but it has a ton of macro insights that lay people can understand; while not being too basic.