skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
1. A major cyber event kills over 50k people. Could be over 1 million if it's something as bad as a really bad windows update or a cyber war.

2. China contests Nato leadership of the world in a way that makes countries pick one side or the other.

3. Quantum computing becomes mainstream.

4. AI isn't real AGI, but it's much more adaptable and pervasive than it is now. Fewer annoyances in major software products.

5. Push comes to shove with surveillance capitalism. Do we want our cars recording everything and beaming it back to home base or not? I'm not saying it will get outlawed, but it will get decided.

6. A new social network will emerge that's cooler than the existing ones and with some amount of privacy and sheltering from bullies and fake accounts.

7. Webs of trust will finally start to control the gamification of the internet. Star ratings don't work right now, but if you trust your friends and their friends ratings could work again.

8. Rights for poly relationships get extended.

9. Global warming gets serious. Mass protests, mass buildouts of solutions, mass migrations.

10. Major advancements in space exploration headed by the private sector, like Space X.

11. Advancement in communicating with intelligent non-humans like dolphins. Possibly even the recognition that there are non-human sentient beings.
Out of all of the factors that could potentially cause poor software (along with the "software disenchantment" as discussed in another recent thread), deadlines stand out as the most concrete and immediate driver of the decisions I take that may result in poor software quality. At least it's the one I can consciously acknowledge as influencing me more than once.

I'll have to improve my efficiency at developing software anyway, but this article has given me more confidence that I can pace the promises I give to my clients as to when features will be delivered.
Id wish for consolidated billing. Every time I end up in the hospital (which is about twice a year), I seem to end up with bills from 5-6 different providers. 1 from the hospital itself, a separate one from ER services, another from the pharmacy, one each from the specialists I see, another for lab work and yet another from radiology/imaging.

This bifurcation of billing makes an easy trap into falling into dilliquency because youre inundated with so many bills for the same visit that, even if you can afford to pay, you're like, "didnt I already pay for this?"

Seriously, the hospital near me seems to be a racket for Bill collectors. It seems no one is employed by the hospital proper and that theyre effectively all subcontractors that submit their bills directly to the end client, despite never being notified of that.

I cannot imagine a process like this where I hire a contractor to build a house at X rate, and they agree, and then all of the subcontractors bill me directly outside of the initial agreement. Maybe not the best analogy...

I fucking hate medical billing practices.

(I'm in the US)
Hopefully, it will lead to better plant-based diet adoption.
>in my experience it's unequivocally bullshit

>[trip compared to] a really fun intense vacation in a foreign country also alleviates depression for a month or two

I think these two are confusing statements if read together. That being said, I think I understand what you mean.

From the info I’ve gathered, almost everybody agrees with you. It’s not a magic cure. Sure, someone might argue it is but you’ll find that person everywhere. But for someone with severe depression who can’t see beyond the wall could be really valuable experience, since otherwise couldn’t go (or even afford) going on a very intense vacation in a foreign country.

Sometimes you may need clarity to deal with the problems that otherwise depression wouldn’t let you (or wouldn’t even let you see them). But I guess (because I haven’t tried this, but read a lot) it’s all about the mindset you approach this.
I am not currently an employee at Google but just looking at the products I have noticed for at least 3 years that something at Google has been changing... and not in the right direction. When I talked to some friends in product management that worked and used to worked there, I was told Google is stronger and mature than before.

The last example top of mind is when I saw the Pixel 3a coming out with 2 months old security patch and they tell you that it going to be updated the next month (with 3 months security update gap).

The old Google would never have compromised on security to edge instability risks during the launch of the Pixel 3a. But some people wanted to play it more "safe" for themselves than for the users.

It seems Google is quickly becoming just another big corporation where people go to make money wanting to work as little as possible and keeping their job as safe as possible avoiding risks.

I am not saying it is like that in every part of the company, but in enough places that it start showing...

No wonder the founders stepped down. Who may want to see their baby and an unique culture like Google slowly deteriorating without having anymore enough power to change it.
the sentence "Perhaps governments should be punished at an ICANN level, where allocation of IP addresses are restricted?" is totally unreadable

I did not make any research, this is just my MHO (I have in mind Ethiopia, and I exclude electoral days):

* governments of poor countries do not have $$$ to control the internet (society), so in case of a threat they just close it down: it is a total mess, the gov. knows it (and their PM is a young tetchy guy), but they cannot afford alternatives.

* gov. of rich countries do have cash to use the internet to control people, and the last think they want is not having the internet

the issue is very serious

A fake video, published in specific moment, can be a catastrophe
Clear-as-possible descriptions of uncertainty are the only real hedges against this, because they create the opportunity for directed experiments.
Perhaps not very optimistic but:

1. Climate change is ignored by the US and China (who combined make up half of emissions). It snowballs until it becomes irreversible and catastrophic.

2. Countries lurch from natural disaster to natural disaster, incapable of focusing on more than short-term aid for its panicked citizens.

3. Large groups of people become climate refugees as their towns/cities become uninhabitable from flooding, fires, disease, etc. Some desperately try to get entry into 1st world countries.

4. Amongst xenophobia and desperation to do something about seemingly endless natural disasters, we see a rise of countries lead by strong dictator-types, who promise that they will fix our problems where others have failed.

5. Hard clamp down on immigration. Human rights violations, genocide, world war.

6. Still no level 4/5 autonomous vehicles.
Ask HN: Investor? Seeking Investment?
Checking if there's interest in an investments-related thread similar to hiring/freelancing threads.

Please, start with LOOKING TO INVEST or SEEKING INVESTMENTS with optional location/geographical area of interest. Add some TAGS like ML, FINANCE, AGRICULTURE.

If seeking for an investment, describe your project or startup as much as you can without revealing the "secret sauce". List: amount you are looking for, what are you going to spend the investment on, your current team (1 man is also good!), and how do you plan to earn money.

If looking for investment opportunities, please specify area(s) of interest or specific project idea(s), how much are you willing to share, and the desired stake in the company or project.
Interesting, is there a reason you are sending the data to the client so regularly? Is that being triggered every time something changes?

Also how are you liking SSE? I've played with WS but never SSE.
1. This will be the last time I’m typing my decade prediction on HN

2. AR/VR will be complementary only, travel industry will be bigger than ever; shopping will happen as your travel (product placement in all your experiences)

3. Weather-related disasters to be more rampant and frequent

4. Governments go bankrupt and hyper-inflation in developed countries

5. Disney still owns everything

6. Intel loses leadership in CPU market, as Apple leads the post-x86 world

7. Facebook to be the Google of the decade; Tesla to be Facebook of the decade
Think of something more like a cat’s tail
You don't set policies for what is happening now, you set them for the future.

A future where (according to exactly the same reference!) solar will be cheaper than coal by 2030 (~61 $/MWh vs ~76 $/MWh supercritical coal).

I'd also note that this report was done in 2017, and the LCOE for solar has decreased more rapidly than expected. This Lazard report done only a year later puts large scale solar at US$36-43/MWh (= A$51-63/MWh).
> the end of 32 bit computing.

By itself hardly a bold prediction, but the top reply makes a caveat about mobile devices, which gets some nods about mobile taking much longer to transition to 64-bit.

Few might have imagined Apple would ship its first 64-bit phone only three years later, and a version of iOS before the decade was over that ended support for 32-bit phones!
Because I can do that by saying "Hey Google, where's my phone" or logging onto Android Device Manager and asking it to ring my phone.

Likewise for iOS.
1. Google Stadia was as disappointing as OnLive. Nothing has changed in the last 10 years in that regard.

7. C++ has multiple of those but expecting standardization is a pipe dream.

8. I personally am tired of "cross platform" apps that are based on electron but don't support Linux. To add insult to injury: running them with wine doesn't work 99% of the time.

9. Most FQDNs are not user facing.
Thanks. Could you also post the sql ddl?
LOL, not really, we have many others on HN working in FoodTech, and AgriTech as well. The diversity of people on HN is quite amazing, from working in Nuclear research to Doctor and Chemist. I remember there was a Web Developers but part time Chef and Restaurant owner.
Anything where the size of a network increases. For example, airlines merging can mean more opportunities for connections.
I’d say that happened a couple hundred years earlier when we tossed a bunch of tea into the bay.
There's some pretty cheap blue boards that cost less than the CPU on them, due to a manufacturing flaw. (one resistor is wrong, so it won't program on most PCs)
1. Right wing will continue to rise along with radicals across the globe and will peak in 2nd half of the decade (hopefully without a holocaust or WW).

2. Facebook, MS, Google, Apple will stay dominant. Though EU, Russia and India will put more checks in place.

3. Fake News and Deepfakes will continue to rise with (1), causing an arms race with detectors.

4. Even more consolidation across consumer content web.

5. Electron/RN/* tech will merge web/mobile/desktop apps development into one.

6. New development in battery will make electric cars dominant. Nuclear will have a strong resurgence and China/India will be driver of clean fuel requirements.

7. Autonomous cars will be limited to particular community/use cases. Though Automated Trucks on highway will be popular.
This is HUGE smoking gun...
Google Fi replacing phones under warranty with refurbished phones
I bought a Pixel 3a XL about three months ago. About 2 months ago speaker and ringer stopped working. I have had numerous calls with Google Fi support. The best they can do for me is send me a refurbished replacement probably of lesser value. This is for a phone under warranty. This is quite unfair.
Most sites will allow you to opt out from account creation and also will allow you to unsubscribe without even having to login to your account. If your mailbox has 10k+ spam messages it is IMO a personal problem of either not opting out, or signing up for total garbage sites in the first place.
> 5. Push comes to shove with surveillance capitalism. Do we want our cars recording everything and beaming it back to home base or not? I'm not saying it will get outlawed, but it will get decided.

It's likely insurance companies will push laws making it a requirement in order to provide insurance services. (At the moment, they just ask you to install their devices in exchange for a "lower premium.")
You can have higher ratios at the CXO and SVP level, and need lower ratios below director because at the higher level most people dont need as much day to day oversight.
It's interesting how none of the commenters envisioned Microsoft repositioning itself to adapt to technological and business trends. Everyone seems to have thought they would either fight them and lose, or contract to becoming an IBM-like consulting business.
Figure Eight knot is tied almost identically to an overhand knot, except you "turn left" instead of "turning right" into the loop. Under no circumstances is a figure eight knot harder to tie than an overhand knot.

https://www.101knots.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/How-to-T...

In fact, I've practiced the figure 8 knot so much, that it takes more effort for me to do an overhand knot these days. Figure 8 is really easy.

Just as the "Granny Knot" is a mistaken square knot / reef knot... the "Overhand Knot" is basically a mistaken figure-8 knot. Just turn the other way, and the knot will be far, far stronger.
The two loop shoelace knot almost qualifies as life changing. Such a small change to something I learned as a child makes such a big difference. Not only do your shoes not come undone, but they don't loosen.
Interestingly that's the thing I miss most from the Oasis. I wish I could configure it to display a book I'm reading as the cover when it's in standby.
I'd agree with the last part. I just think that Google is explicitly trying to execute that transition; they think, I'd argue correctly, that you can't succeed in the enterprise market with Google's historically low levels of business-side focus.
5. This is already true and was one of the motivations behind languages like Go and Rust.
This comment from the recent thread reflecting on HNers’ predictions from 2010 made me realize how little can change in a decade:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21942143

IMO, OP’s predictions may be safe, but that says more about reality than OP’s lack of imagination.
“Commercial success” in this context is home automation. The only people who have a Crestron system at home are wealthy people. That’s a niche market. When they have the same market penetration as Apple or Google do with phones, then I will agree.
These are conservative predictions

- Software engineers will continue to get paid more and more.

- The bay area will not solve its infrastructure problem, leading to large amounts of remote work.

- China's housing bubble will pop and take down the global
economy. However, China will emerge the strongest from this recession.

- China soft power will increase significantly and will cause the average American to question liberal democracy.

- ML will continue to drive big profits for the bigcos but not be a source of new significant startups

- AR/VR will not have mass adoption this decade but will have a strong POC (think smartphones in 2010).

- We will have L4 autonomy, but drivers will have to take over fairly often.

- >50% of new cars sold will be electric by the end of the decade

- Bitcoin > $100k
Increasing global panic as self-reinforcing feedback loops in Carbon emissions cause people with means to migrate to high ground in cold countries, and people without means to die starving, fighting, or trying to emigrate. Resource wars and a land grab for regions that continue to be arable. Many, many killed, perhaps a few even in wealthy countries. Shock amongst the wealthy that the ocean is coming even for _their_ beachfront homes. Mostly this will be about the realization of what's coming, and that this is the decade for positioning before global food supply chains fail.

This will also serve as the backdrop against which the US loses its status as a republic, as the combination of overweighted rural votes in the senate and electoral college, poor election security (as in terribly insecure evoting tabulation, not dumb voter id laws), and easily bought politicians, judges, etc. lead to a wealthy few dictating the conditions for the many, using the tools of manufactured housing scarcity, medical debt, and student debt (if colleges manage to stay relevant). A massive national dragnet that doesn't even pretend to care about citizens' privacy. The US governing structure will look a lot more like China's.

Some software stuff, new medical breakthroughs for the rich, fascinating art in response to above, etc. But that's less relevant.

Hope I'm wrong!
The pause between words still sounds artificial but the actual voice itself seems very friendly and natural.

I also almost wrote 'his voice...' when writing this comment. That's always a good sign for synthetic speech.
Or they lost it all in the Mt. Gox hack... sobs quietly
I thought about doing this about ten years ago when our town decided to discontinue fireworks shows due to fire risk. At the time it would have been too expensive to attempt. It’s really neat to finally see this happen.
Yes, pretty close... too bad we can't comment on old threads but at least I upvoted him =)
- Bill Gates is president of the United States

- Edward Snowden will be back home. He's still a hero.

- Bitcoin lightning payments are the most common form of payment on the Internet.

- Due to the death of Moore's law a USD 1000 laptop in 2030 is only 3 times as powerful as a USD 1000 laptop in 2020.

- Quantum computers are still not common

- Nosql databases are not commonly used anymore

- Singularity is still 30 years away

- China's and Russia's will have found effective ways to isolate their internet traffic.

- Postgres is the nr 1 database in use

- Hackernews color theme will change from orange to green

- SAP's ERP system revenues will have dropped significantly

- Startup solutions will be more common in corporate environments.

- Matrix will be the most commonly used protocol used for chat software.

- Plasma Mobile will be a successful alternative to Android.
Pandoc can output to word. Writing in markdown and sharing the word output with editors/reviewers is a reasonably nice workflow — just treat the docx file as a pdf (or any other output format).
> Governments go bankrupt and hyper-inflation in developed countries

I heard this a lot in 2007. If the financial crisis taught us anything it's that developed world economies are astonishingly resistant to inflation of any kind.
Or, under the RIPA act in the UK, a maximum of five years.
They're pretty identical in terms of ease of tying, it's just one extra flick of your wrist before you pass the working end back through.

I think the difference in speed would be measured in milliseconds. You'd need a slow-motion camera to spot see any difference at all.
Interesting how almost everyone goes for a 4-4-0 style train with the American-style balloon smokestack. It's funny that this is called "wild west" because it's rather anachronistic for that design. In the 1870s and onward, railroads are buying 4-6-0 trains instead of 4-4-0 trains. And the balloon shape is a feature of wood-burning locomotives (which produce a lot more embers and sparks than coal does). The Great Plains and Great Basin being rather devoid of trees, western railroads generally favored coal-burning designs, and so used much lower-profile smokestacks. The stereotypical "wild west" design is therefore closer to what you'd see in 1850s Ohio than 1870s Oklahoma.
Ask HN: Do you use any browser extensions to enhance HN?
Several years ago I installed an extension called HackerNew but now it appears to have been removed from the Chrome web store. It's still installed in my browser instance though. Curious if any other enhancement extensions (anything from some simple CSS tweaks to something like Reddit Enhancement Suite) exist that are worthwhile.
Our misdeeds and overall tendency for deception when it comes to that part of the world makes me highly skeptical of anything we announce when it comes to military operations in that region. Iran isn't a good guy when it comes to the geopolitics of the Middle East but then again, neither is pretty much any other country in that mess. It's difficult to know if this news is actually a good step forward or just more splashing around in mud puddles because we can.
There was very little discussion of US actions in the Philippines in my middle school / high school history courses. There was some coverage in 10th grade world history, but the 11th grade US history course pretty much skipped it.

I can remember as a 15–16 year old high school student having a discussion about this with the teacher and other students, because we (the students) thought it was a serious oversight which left a whitewashed impression of the history of US international relations.

In general, the US and its military are consistently treated as “good guys” in American high school history courses, even when discussing events where that summary is insupportable by dispassionate analysis.
- The JVM running on a unikernal is the most ubiquitous backend deployment. Kotlin is the most popular backend language.

- Server-side rendering is ubiquitous. Previously, motivations for client side rendering were to minimise network bandwidth requirements and to avoid server-side statefulness, reducing RAM and CPU requirements. By 2030, memory and compute resources are so cheap that the inherent advantages of server side rendering make it a no brainer for the most part.

- Discovery of extraterrestrial life will occur in mid to late 2020s, most likely in the form of Martian microbes. The James Webb Space Telescope will likely acquire strong evidence of organic lifeforms on multiple exoplanets. Even more surprising discoveries may be made in this area.

- Anti aging therapies become mainstream. By 2030, people in developed countries can expect to live an additional 10-15 years in good health. Reaching 'actuarial escape velocity' becomes a serious possibility for many people alive now. Governments realise the time will come when they will have to step in and bail out pension funds who have unwittingly sold annuities. There will be a group of people who were old enough to get an annuity before they became prohibitively expensive/unavailable and who were young enough to reach actuarial escape velocity. They will be labelled 'the luckiest generation ever'. This may not become totally apparent until 2030s or 2040s.

- Real time ray tracing becomes standard by late 2020s. Games are indistinguishable from reality. A murder case where defendant claims 'they thought they were ingame' makes the news headlines.

- Spacex's Starlink constellation is a massive commercial success. Partly due to this, and partly due to ubiquitous aerial drone-based delivery, it becomes not only possible, but increasingly desirable for many people to live in remote areas.

- Development of space based industry is slower than people hoped. Full exploitation of cheap launch capabilities provided by SpaceX won't be seen until 2030s. Blue Origin will catch up with Spacex's capabilities by mid 2020s. Private space launch industry will no longer be a one horse race.

- Electric cars overtake ICEs in developed nations. Several incumbents who don't react in time will go bankrupt and be acquired by electric car manufacturers. As such, the brands won't disappear, the executive boards however will be out of a job.

- Cryptocurrency will remain off the radar for most of 2020 until, due to major war involving a wealthy, developed country, millions of people will rush to buy Bitcoin to save what they can of their wealth. Price of one Bitcoin will quickly exceed $100,000 during this period.

- People will become increasingly afraid to post their physical likeness (appearance and voice in particular) on the internet due to a surge in deep-fake powered identity theft.

- North Korea will not collapse. The West will reluctantly accept it as a nuclear armed state. It will gradually normalise relations with the outside world and may even follow the same path China took, becoming a prosperous country in the process.