skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
1. More electric cars might be sold in 2030 than gas (a little skeptical), but there will still be more gas cars on road.

2. Bitcoin will still be around. Prices will be higher than today. There will be more mining than today.

3. There may be one or two more, but they’ll be disastrous and not repeated.

4. 50/50, but not too late. Get involved!

5. True.

6. Doubtful. See polio.

7. No way. Tuition will be higher than ever. More students will be getting degrees in person than ever before.

8. Hopefully! Almost certainly true.

9. Doubtful on trillionaire unless they’re head of state. Maybe by 2040.

10. If only, but seriously doubt it. The senate being biased towards conservative rural voters in an age of increasing urbanization will make this almost impossible. Also the Supreme Court will still be leaning right.

11. No. Flash cards and SRS have been around for decades. People don’t care enough to use them and there’s nothing that’s not commodity here.

12. Fuck, probably true. Hopefully mostly TypeScript by then at least.
Why do we need distributed systems?
I suspect funding will decline in the next recession and not increase during the recovery.
Or, like me, literally deleted my wallet with 100 ish coins in 'cos I couldn't be bothered finding a USB key.

I though 'oh I'll just mine a few more next week' when I get my new laptop (!!! mining on cpu).

Narrator: He forgot about it.
The state has always been a major contributor the long term major tech innovation and evolution.

Private enterprise contributes to the “last mile” but grabs all of recognition. AI is the latest example of this. The Googles and Facebooks of this world have been hoarding AI researchers and experts who have been working on AI for the last 30+ years thanks to public money.

The US DoE invested in Tesla Motors when not a single private investor dared to touch it.

But the masses are not only too ignorant to recognize the state’s major role and contribution, they religiously believe private enterprise alone made it all possible and that the state is a roadblock.
But old.reddit.com is the same as reddit before they implemented the bloated redesign.
it will take a long time before data collection becomes opt-in... we need to get the democrat president candidates to present their stance on this issue.
Not sure what sort of disruption btc and the like have caused thus far. Just another speculator's market.
They are. Microsoft, especially under Ballmer, was notoriously anti-OSS (open-source). Not only did Satya make the decision to shift the company to be cloud focused, he represented a change of guard when it was critically important to make peace with the open-source community.

Ballmer: Called Linux "Cancer". Literally.

Satya: "We are all in on open-source"
> Pilots who are members must complete a checkout every 12 months to remain current in the network (in the same make/model as the airplane they are checked out in), as well as receive a “local knowledge briefing” once a year. Before signing up, you’ll also need to obtain your own renter’s insurance with a minimum of $250,000 in liability coverage.

I'm not seeing any common sense in the founders.

1. For most people, doing an extra checkout is a deal breaker.

2. Same with the 10% (or more) additional cost. I wonder if that disqualifies block time discounts as well.

3. Also requiring renters insurance, which although recommended, most people don't have.

However, if you already lived near an OA location, and you squint hard, it could make sense for a handful of pilots - just not enough to ever make a profitable business.

There's an article about Blackbird linked to this article. They were trying to do the "hold out" Part 135 charters but regulated under Part 91 thing that the FAA never allows, and never will.
Do we know who the leads were behind the catastrophic Digg redesign/reimplementation, because those clowns should be tarred and feathered and should never work in the software industry again.

Reddit's gone down the same path. Who's leading that effort?
1. The election of 2020 will catalyze the creation of a third major political party composed of former Democrats and Republicans. By the end of the decade, this new party, propelled by its charismatic leader, will have relegated the current parties to minority status.

2. The fastest-shrinking part of the economy will be middle management. Flat organization restructuring will be driven by a dizzying proliferation of cheap decision-making systems directly instructing low wage workers.

3. At least two digital 9/11s will take place. These will be major attacks on crucial infrastructure of a world power by a group no larger than 2,000 individuals.

4. At least two digital Tonkin Gulf incidents will take place. In the rush to pin blame and "do something," the victim of a digital 9/11 will identify - and attack - an innocent country.

5. At least one low-yield nuclear weapon will be used in a combat situation.

6. New battery technologies will make it possible to power a full-size car for 500 miles with a unit costing under $300.

7. The value of bitcoin in circulation will exceed the M1 money supply of all but the top 3 countries.

8. Teenagers will rarely leave their houses, replacing most physical interactions, including school, with telepresence tools.
It seems like they are both right based on their values? Signal put privacy and security first, and Matrix put federation first.

They are both idealistic in their own way.
I posted something similar and I would bet money on it, if there's a good mechanism to do so.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21942100

I've invested in rideshare companies with the assumption that humans will still largely be behind the wheel in 10 years.

(Because nobody's going back to taxis; rideshare is more backward compatible than public transit buildout; it's harder than you think to start a new rideshare company, etc. Also once something becomes popular, people underestimate how long it sticks. Similar to somebody predicting on the 2010 thread that Facebook would be gone by now.)

Side note: I've made bearish predictions about self-driving on HN for at least 2-3 years if you check my comment history. I'm don't want to be negative, just realistic. I'm bullish on the software industry in general and video in particular.
Ehn, from my POV, it seems like the Google's PR has a lot of room for improvement. Apple seems to have a much better PR department.

Opinions are my own.
for a long time there were no easy way to do background processing in django. with the asyncio paradigm spreading throughout the community and django starting to add support for it, that will quickly change.
Read the blogs and articles published by AQR.
USDA Rural Development Program Overview
There were definitely parties in the Netherlands and France that made leaving the EU their major plank. When Brexit turned out to be rather more difficult than its adherents imagined, support for "Frexit" and "Nexit" plummeted like a rock, and hasn't recovered.

Greece is slightly more plausible, but less because Greece wants to leave and more because the rest of the EU decides to kick them out. It's doubtful they'd kick them out of anything more than the Eurozone, though.
I agree with most of this. I think we could make it to mars by then but no permanent presence.

Really hope China undergoes a change towards democracy. A little skeptical in ten years though.
I think a highly underrated Topic:

Food and Environment:

1.) Clean meat will become affordable to produce and cause a big shift in the meat industry.

2.) More People will switch to a (more) plant based diet, either for health and/or environmental and ethical reasons

3.) There will be a lot more startups in the plant based food sector (like beyond meat, just egg etc.)
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Mobile:
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They could just move it to the Reference section, making it available to read but not check out.
What you say is true. And yet, what kind of a human being uses "tragedy of the commons" as an excuse why he has to dump pollution into the water?

Back to the actual topic at hand. We're actually talking about wealthy individuals, not about companies. If Bill Gates, say, falls another 10% off of the leader on the Forbes wealthiest list, how much power and influence has he really lost? Not enough to use that as an excuse for inaction, that how much.
I predict we will see the further consolidation and co-integration of programming languages.
> 9. Global carbon emissions are not reduced, mostly because of lack of initiative by China and 3rd world countries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China
There's two issues with that. First, that's only one of three available options (two for commercial entities) that satisfy the license. The other is to include a copy of the source code with the software distribution. However, separately, this does not require that the source code be posted in a public place for anyone to access. You only must give with the distribution a written offer. That offer is valid to anyone, but it doesn't need to be posted in public and the source code does not need to be posted in public.
Organs will be harvested from pig human chimaeras. Will likely be uncovered that it was happening in the 2010’s but disclosed publicly this decade. Likely China are world leaders in this.

Increased tension along India Pakistan border results in skirmish’s and possible Balkanisation of Pakistan. India suffers a bad recession and undergoes a regime change and try’s to divert political opinion by attacking the Pakistan border region. Similar to Argentina Falklands conflict.

Trump re-elected but democrats win in 2024 with first female president elected. She will be from a mid western state and have wide base of support from across party lines and isn’t seen as a contender at this time.

Brexit transition is painful but Britain is doing better and having a localised boom by end of the decade. This is largely due to less regulation.

Ireland undergoes reunification this decade. Everyone hopes in 2024 to meet the Star Trek prophecy.

South Africa property seizures on white landowners cause mass emigration leads to food security issues in the region.

Cyber security bubble pops. Most people catch on to the fact that it’s mostly vapourware. Most companies in-house security so it’s mostly managed security service providers affected. One of the big MSSPs goes bust and is merged in other another one. Likely crowdstrike into fireeye.

A cyber security service provider is hacked and used as a vector to target customers.

The next recession will be a money recession due to over supply caused by quantitative easing. This causes inflation on price. This will be preceded by a year of wide scale introduction of negative interest rates.

Fake meat products linked to one of the following; hormone issues, cancer, foreign food tampering scandal.
What’s amazing is how little changed.

- Apple and Google are still the only two mobile operating systems that matter and they are still in relatively the same position. iOS still controls the high end where the money is and Android has the market share but the OEMs are not making any money.

- Facebook is more profitable and popular.

- Amazon is still the number one online retailer, the Kindle is still by far the most popular ereader but more importantly, the Kindle platform is still dominant.

- Google still hasn’t managed to diversify from its ad business and YouTube is still dominant for video.

- Netflix is still the dominant streaming platform.

- Microsoft is doing better than ever.
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Wait, were you an OA customer? Tell us more!

Yeah, there's incredible freedom if you have all the paperwork and own your own Mooney or other fast airplane.

Anything short of that in flying is a harsh, toe-stubbing reality unless you stay local VFR.
Ham Radio is far from dead, and it isn't a "technical club". It is an activity with many varied subinterests from public service to exploration of extremely efficient low-power communication modes to bouncing signals off the moon. There are 750,000 licensed amateur radio opeators in the United States.
* IoT hacking becomes a real issue; ransomware exploiting smart door locks will lock people off their homes, refusing to open until ransom is paid.

* The end of Moore's Law force more and more engineering effort to be spent on performance optimizations; "performance optimization" is the new cool keyword to have in your resume.

* Discrete optimization becomes a hot topic much like neural nets are today.

* WebAssembly with Rust is the new trend in web development. JS still lives, tho.

* Forget Docker, unikernels are the future.

* Foldable smartphones are still a joke.
Apple's privacy marketing is bullshit considering China doesn't allow privacy.
It adds source and destination ports and a checksum. Computing the checksum is a nuisance, and it is usually inadequate, so it is allowed to be zero in IPV4, but not IPV6.

Normally, if you need a checksum, you need one that cannot be forged, and you need more than 16 bits. So the L3 one is just overhead.

I have never seen an actual use of UDP that looked at the port numbers, although firewalls often use them for filtering.
Someone mentioned about dramatiq-pg (https://gitlab.com/dalibo/dramatiq-pg) which also uses PG as the task queue backend and jsonb for message payload & result. How similar is that comparing to Oban?
Rust and Dart hasn’t seen that much “uptake” by the broader market, it’s hyped by geeks but that’s about it. Swift is becoming popular because if you want to develop for iOS, you don’t have a choice. Kotlin is getting some uptake.
Not really. It’s subjective, but full head and hand tracking is a radically different experience then all sub-options, and the things you mention do not seem to be as radical an improvement in comparison.
Nice.
Maybe an easier^3 could be:
1/3 = 0.xyz
4/3 = 1.xyz
Meaning (shl,2) leaves the same digits after the decimal point.
So it must be 0.010101...
> and is likely literally just throwing IPSW files

Actually they go a bit beyond that. From the apple filing:

>The Corellium Apple Product makes modifications to iOS that allows it to be installed on, and run from, Corellium-developed or Corellium-operated hardware. Such modifications include disabling loadable firmware validation, disabling self-verification of the FIPS module, adding Corellium software to the “trust cache,” and instructing the restore tool not to contact Apple servers for kernel / device tree / firmware signing.

This doesn't seem too different from a cloud hosting provider selling VMs running cracked copies of Windows.
In cases where strikes are illegal, they are made so because voters have determined that it is in society's best interest to make them so.

We could say that about just about any major public policy move, now couldn't we? For example:

"In cases where the United States recklessly invades other countries, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths and decades of instability -- as it did most recently in Iraq, for example -- it does so because voters have determined (indirectly, my electing leaders inclined to such actions) that it is in society's best interest to do so."
The debacle that was kdbus (and the technical motivation behind it in the first place) makes me wonder about that 'well implemented' part.
It really takes practice. I can tie a bowline or a figure eight in my sleep, because I used those for climbing.

The taughtline hitch is an amazingly useful knot... but I flub it most of the time. Similarly, the square knot -- even if I take my time, it's a granny with about 45% probability. These aren't knots my life has depended on, and I don't have the muscle memory.
Yes they can coney things, but it isn’t by default. Having conduits, etc. is a waterfall approach.
Like others have said, major Javascript engines are much than Ruby implementations, owing to the huge effort Firefox, Google, Apple, and Microsoft have put into those engines. In principle, I'm not sure if there's reasons that make one intrinsically harder to optimize.

But even if Javascript were slower, it wouldn't mean the prediction was right. Javascript didn't do something super amazing that let you write beautiful code (the way Rubyists feel about Ruby, or Python folks feel about Python). It just ran the web so we used it. Over time, it's morphed into a language that's about as expressive as any other good dynamic language, also with some warts. But it's not a leap ahead, which is what the original post predicted.

The only language I've felt that way about was Prolog. When it works right, it's amazing. Too bad I can rarely make that happen.
One thing that really made reddit different from the other communities that were a thing in its early days was the insistence on wholly-separate subreddits rather than the various overlapping tag schemes which were trendy at the time on delicious, fark, digg, LJ, etc.

I don't know if spez and kn0thing had some special insight about this, but my experience with it over the long term has been that you can be subbed to a few reddits for your preferred niche interests, and enjoy almost complete isolation from whatever toxicity is going on over in r/politics or wherever else (barring the occasional bit of brigading, which is basically just a mess for the smaller-community mods to clean up).

So there's clearly a large number of mainline users who basically just read whatever reddits are default on the logged-out homepage. But I think there's also a super long tail of users who don't read those at all, and my hunch is that it's that long tail of users who have probably sustained the site over the long term, and will continue to give it a lot of resiliency going forward.
Here a mine:

1. We will see an economic depression, also caused by energy problems. The current quantitative easing is actually the first sign of the problems with energy:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/09/12/our-energy-and-debt-pr...

2. Brexit will be bad for the UK

3. Nuclear energy will have a renaissance, also caused by climate worries. 4th generation reactors and/or Thorium reactors will be build.

4. Pension bomb explodes, together with a declining stock-market, pension hair cuts are unavoidable.

5. Russia will do good economically, becoming a bigger player.

6. Immigration problems: not enough qualified employees available anymore, at the same time the EU will get tough on immigrants from non-integrating gap countries

7. Based on financial worries, countries will get tax on tax avoidance of individuals.

8. Iran will either open up internationally an be a strong player or will stay closely aligned to China and Russia. Saudi Arabia may collapse. https://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2015/0...

9. Google will lose its primary position on search. New search engines will be decentralized (e.g. yacy.net), possible in combination with a crypto currency.

10. The beginning of genetically engineering of humans. Now rich people give their offspring the best chance. Best schools, best universities, trust funds. Why not give them a competitive advantage by enhancing their IQ? We may also have the first genetically modified athletes.
The niccolo series by Dorothy Dunnett. (populist, best sellers but perhaps dated and less known by more recent readers) Meticulously researched bodice ripper romance adventure set in the rennaisance against a backdrop of trade in dye, fabric and knowledge. Dunnett was a first class medieval scholar and after a core of fictional characters were established almost everyone she writes about exists in the literature of the time. Plus, bodice ripping!
That read to me like someone who views programming paradigms as simply fashion choices, rather than having actual pros and cons to them.
Yes! X.com and Confinity merged to become PayPal.
It's interesting how high the technical bar is for ICs and "normal staff", but how low the bar is set, or seems to be set, for management and their backgrounds. Their head of cloud is an ex-Oracle guy that led their disastrous cloud initiative. CFO from Goldman Sacks, McKinsey MBAs and mediocre tech managers galore. Earnings expectations clearly favored over product development, and not an engineering led company anymore.

Just looking at their hires, you can almost see the cultural shift play out.
Anyone know what window manager he's using here?

https://www.masteringemacs.org/static/uploads/ediff.png
That sounds crazy. Nobody is horrified by trains burning coal, noone is horrified by old tech.
It is part of progress.

They should be horrified by wars, political unrest and so on...
My hopes and predictions for the next 10 years
If you can't prevent the device from powering down, you have less than a minute to freeze the RAM before the contents become useless. This can be done with a can of cold spray.

No idea how long you have to power it back on afterwards, tens of minutes to a couple of hours probably.

That said, the proper "kill switch" operation would be to explicitly wipe the key from memory before powering off (if you want to power off instead of just locking).