skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
My biggest problem with messaging applications as a whole is that I need
so many of them. I have a few contacts who are reachable with Signal,
a few more who are reachable on Hangouts or whatever Google is calling its
latest thing, and a few more who are reachable with Skype. That's three
programs, to communicate with three different subsets of people.
I'm sure if I used Facebook Messenger and Whatsapp, I'd have two more
subsets of people who are only reachable through those.

XMPP was supposed to solve all those problems when it came out in the early
2000s. But then all the big tech companies who build "ecosystems" decided
to push their own applications, all incompatible with one another. So
here we are again with this proliferation of programs that really only
do one thing: communication. It's like the 90s / early 2000s with the
proliferation of instant messengers: ICQ, AIM, Yahoo, MSN, and on and on and
on.
The players are different, but the game is still the same.
I suspect that twenty years from now, when the players have all changed
yet again, there will still be one reliable method of reaching me: IRC.

If the Googles and Whatsapps and Facebooks of the world had been around
in the early 90s, you'd have one email client from Facebook for mailing Joe
and Fred, an email client from Google for mailing Mary and Jane, and an
email client from Whatsapp for mailing Alice and Bob. Thankfully, email
became entrenched before that could happen.

I want messaging to be like email, where I use one and exactly one program
to communicate with all of my contacts, regardless of what server they use.
People say that federation is more complicated than centralization. I'm
sure that's true for developers, but in fact, federation can be vastly
simplifying for an end user.
I'm a fundamentally lazy person. Having to learn all these different
messaging tools is frankly a waste of my time.
All I want is a federated protocol and an open system, be it Matrix, XMPP,
or something else.

As a final aside,
you know what else that bugs me? The word "ecosystem". I worked for
a big tech company for a while, and the only people I ever heard use that
word were people out to build a walled garden.
Yeah, I don’t have a great solution for tracking changes across multiple back-and-forths within Word, I use git with markdown for that. Pandoc is pretty ok with word templates, but the final version of a document will usually need a little manual tuning before it looks right.
I wonder if anyone knows we are now at war with Iran. I honestly don't know what will happen. This is really, really bad. There could be tens of thousands of casualties by the weekend.
Aren't we supposed to need congressional approval to start a war?

So many things I was taught in civics class turned out to be complete fiction.
> Given the way employment law in the US works, it is HR's responsibility, in general, to ensure the paperwork is in order if an employee needs to be fired.

I would submit that this is really their ONLY job. As in “you had only one job”.
We got a shoe. Simple times.
Wasting time on irrelevant things? Like someone taking the time to post a comment about something they consider to be irrelevant? ;)

I wouldn't consider this to be a depiction of the "industry". Someone pulled on an OCD thread and shared what they found with the community, and now I'll be on the lookout for poorly designed scissor emojis as a result...

It was a fun read for me - one of the less serious posts for today being the kick off of a new decade. Reminds me of how there are so many colors of hand emojis now. I wonder if they'll try and make scissor emojis that represent left and right handed people equally at some point - letting the user decide.
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>be quickly forgotten, much like mass shootings today

Mass shootings have historically been responsible for deaths totalling in the teens per year, or less. Today, with increaded gun control, death totals from mass shootings are their highest ever at hundreds per year. Still, I hope it is possible for you to understand just how tiny this number is compared to those killed by the War on Drugs, the opioid crisis, by suicide, by preventable accidents, by smoking, etc. Inner city gang and Black on Black crime kills over an order of magnitude more people by shooting. Your idea that mass shootings are somehow underreprensented in our conciousness completely insane.
I guess I'm not most people because I'm definitely doing it.

Most frantinc searches of my phone happen as I'm about to leave the house in hurry. Cleaning is not an option then. I would have to be 'organised' which I absolutely abhore and want to avoid at all cost.

So far my solution was to just have a second phone in a fixed place so I can call my main phone and locate it by sound.

But the wifi triangulation thing sounds like way more fun.
>I was hoping for an eventual end to war.

No US President has ever lost a run for re-election during wartime. I think we all knew a new war was coming this year.
I would expect the unmount of an encrypted filesystem to secure delete the encryption key from memory. My understanding of the memory freezing attacks is that you don't unmount it, you just kill the power by removing the battery.

With this method, you would still be able to freeze the RAM, reboot the computer, dump the RAM, and disassemble the kernel memory, and discover where the disk encryption key was stored: in that location, you'd find all zeroes.
> and after the Chinese government attempted to hack into the Gmail accounts of human rights advocates in 2009

Not really relevant to the story, but this was always a lie. The reason that China hacked Google had nothing to do with spying on activists. It’s a cover story for a counter-intel op.

China hacked the “PRISM”-like feature in order to see which of their spies had been burned, based on whether or not the US government had wiretaps on those accounts.

https://www.darkreading.com/attacks-and-breaches/google-auro...

https://www.cio.com/article/2386547/-aurora--cyber-attackers...
How common would it be on a wired connection.
At least this guy was wrong

> I predict lots of people will make predictions, but we'll never go back to check and see if they were right.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025748
It's an account setting -- you can completely opt out of the new version. I use Reddit every day, and have never been sent to the new version by mistake.

Unfortunately, if you use the old version, you will also not have access to the newest mod tools, including a lot of sub settings. But the old version works fine for reading and commenting.
Well, Iran is after all the last of the Wes Clark Seven.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RC1Mepk_Sw
He's not wrong. What happens if the US gets mired in 3rd war?How are we going to pay for it?
I'll disagree with you on this one:

25% unemployment due to automation - not due to strong AI, just steady incremental changes (eg how McD's has already replaced human till operators with "select your meal from a tablet then swipe your payment card")

I'll predict the exact opposite. The decade will include one recession that will be called a "X bubble" and take ~3 years to recover from where X is something everybody uses (housing, tech, etc.). Rich people and corporations will be blamed, but no meaningful economic reforms will be passed. Despite continually dire predictions from left-leaning politicans and internet economists about unemployment and UBI, recession unemployment will sit at 11% and non-recession unemployment will sit around 5% (as measured by the U3 in the United States). Unemployment will never exceed 15% for the duration of the decade. Though the labor force participation rate will drop (as boomers continue to retire) the rate of drop will begin to level out towards the end of the decade. This drop will lead to the first sustained real (inflated adjusted) increase in wages since the 90s.

See you in 2030 :)

Edit: also, UBI will not be passed into law in any state or federally.
U-Haul to Implement Nicotine-Free Hiring Policy
1. Rust will hit the top 5 languages and become a mainstay of robust computing.

2. Blockchain won't replace anything. CryptoCurrency won't appreciably become more significant.

3. AI will get linearly better, but nothing paradigm-shifting. Its hype will begin to fade.

4. There will be a massive privacy leak/security event that will cause us, as a society, to re-evaluate the legal landscape of data collection and monitoring.

5. Google will lose significant market share.

6. Petrol cars will decline in manufacturing rates 1 if not 2 orders of magnitude.

7. A human-trip to Mars will be scheduled, if not completed.

8. The mobile market will be significantly disrupted by some new product, but I have no idea what it will be.
Hi, did not find any eng positions in Berlin. Was it a typo?
Many on the left despise mergers and consolidation, and anything that has a hint of monopoly power. Except when it comes to government, education, and healthcare! Doesn’t a single centralized monopoly providing everyone’s healthcare seem like a bad idea? Why is it so bad in business and so good for health?
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JavaScript is now both faster and less productive than Ruby, so it doesn't match his prediction that a slower and more productive language will become popular.
Aren't a lot of the soy beans used for animal (pig) feed?
Iraq and Iran are natural allies. Could we fight both? What if NK decides to make an offensive? Sure we could nuke them back but what if they storm SK and then launch? There are games they can play.
CALEA is a new thing.
If "waste" is "many organizations making the same emoji," and if the alternative is a standards committee, I think standards committees are hit or miss. I'm fine with organizations doing it themselves.
This is such a infuriatingly off the mark comment. This isn't domestic politics. This is a regional power in the most geopolitically important location in the world. The can strike the oilfields of the entire Person Gulf. The can close the Strait of Hormuz. They have a large modern military, large on-the-ground intelligence service in the region, and advanced offensive military cyber capabilities. This is profoundly bigger than the US Presidential election. It is a bad sign that this is so many peoples' take.

This is real war, the likes of which we haven't seen since Vietnam or the Korean peninsula. Professionals have dreaded this for a long time, and that was with extraordinarily more competent executive function.
Projections for the Decade
Taiwan declared independence and China bombed the island, which leads to WWIII
IT consolidation only happens when it is prioritized, and in many cases you end up with some hybrid system of bastardized mapping/integration tiers rather than a pristine single environment. Healthcare IT also has the challenge of ridiculous amounts of highly specialized and largely turnkey systems, interop with other hospital and research organizations and of course the ever-present regulatory requirements that must be maintained throughout.

Didn't read the article but the headline is absolutely not a surprise.
>"We've 12 years to live because of climate change!" are fickle and as soon as the current narrative shifts a bit there's no telling what other damage they're capable of doing.

One of the contributing factors to why I think we'll see a significant return to religiousness in Western nations in the coming decade.

Those hysterias and groupthinks already are their religions. Meanwhile the tail end of the distribution in the US is increasingly experiencing worse outcomes: homelessness, joblessness, suicide, etc.
And a rash of black market antibiotic use.
You should use an EDK (despite the name sounding scary) if you're anywhere with cracks or areas that a double fisherman's will get caught. The EDK is asymmetric so it's less likely to get stuck, and is generally faster to tie (and untie). Fears of it rolling out are a bit overstated - just leave a solid 6 inches of tail or more.
Juikiiii
https://gitlab.com/groups/skytvsportsfree/-/milestones/2
https://gitlab.com/groups/skytvsportsfree/-/milestones/3
https://gitlab.com/groups/skytvsportsfree/-/milestones/4
https://gitlab.com/groups/skytvsportsfree/-/milestones/5
https://gitlab.com/groups/skytvsportsfree/-/milestones/6
https://gitlab.com/groups/skytvsportsfree/-/milestones/7
https://gitlab.com/groups/skytvsportsfree/-/milestones/8
https://gitlab.com/groups/skytvsportsfree/-/milestones/9
CCPA – What It Means for the Tech Giants and Its Users
>Use of force in the form of sanctions against countries that release too much CO2

Don't know about this one since the countries with the clout to impose sanctions are also by far the biggest CO2 emitters
The ‘warlord’ caught my eye and I couldn’t read past it. Sorry.
Celery + RabbitMQ is a great option for Python projects
I know very little about the 1800s outside of European warfare. Was railway technology really advancing so rapidly in the United States that missing the mark by a mere 20 years and a few hundred miles counts as an anachronism?
1. Electric vehicles will be mainstream.

2. Self-driving will be deployed effectively in freight transport.

3. The cost and efficiency of logistics will be lowered further and become an important factor in economic growth.

4. Pressure on the market of commercial real estate due to the lower cost of logistics.

5. Wind (especially offshore wind farms) and solar become cost-effective energy sources.

6. Technology leaps in battery and energy storage.

7. AI/ML will find its niche in industrial infrastructure more than consumer goods/services.

8. Desktops and laptops made of SoCs become the norm.

9. RISC-V commoditizes certain aspects of the chip design industry and will grow an impactful ecosystem.

10. Cash will be diminished by the market and the pushes from governments, which will be replaced by digital transactions.
> the only reason that anyone is giving you a paycheck is because they are getting value in excess of the amount they're paying you

If by value you mean political value, yes. If by value you mean return to the company for the compensation, that has nothing to do with anything. If there is one thing I have learned in my storied career is that making your boss happy enough to defend your being there is all that matters. I have seen so much deadweight in a company keep their job merely because they were willing to tell their boss what they wanted to hear.

> Whatever amount of job security you can wrangle comes only when you consistently appear to be providing value in excess of your compensation

It took several years to convince my wife that my job security comes from being able to land a new job, not keeping it. I'm always working with new libraries and technologies, staying in-front of (or at least abreast of) what's currently hot. Recruiters are always trying to poach me. Amazingly enough, I landed in a job where I both get to keep my education going and implementing newer technology and my boss likes me. I am coming up on five years, but I know that could change at any moment if pressure were to come down from above.

> What you say about HR is spot on as well. It seems obvious to me, but I'm frequently surprised that it's not obvious to everybody.

Because it's not against the law for companies to lie to employees but it is against the law for you to lie to your companies. I've been in big companies and small companies. They all tell you H.R. is there to help you, to make things better, to work out issues. If you're someone the company wants, H.R. may even work on your behalf (after the manager approves). It really nails you sideways when you've had it good for years to then have the company suddenly turn on you. When you are made to feel as though you are unjustified for breathing in the company's air. It's a huge shock.
Electron isn’t just JavaScript, else I would have said JavaScript. Electron is front and center in the movement to shorten development time by consuming more PC resources at runtime. I feel that’s the spirit of the prediction.
For python, celery seems good.
And in musical format (from the same dude that did 'what does the fox say')

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUHgGK-tImY
Amazingly, I'm pretty aligned with most of these!
What I'm suggesting is that had this flashpoint not occurred, your commander in chief would have found another.
>Is it common that an article is posted for 3 days in a row and it is [DEAD]?

According to what you said previously, it was only dead the first out of 3 times, and even that one is no longer dead. Maybe some people flagged it or downvoted it the first time.

Things being reposted repeatedly to HN and taking off on later reposts is quite common[1][2][3]. Reposting is explicitly allowed in the FAQ[4].

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20125589

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9806801

[3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21867946

[4] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html
Just give it a ring!?
Zeromq is just a bit of sugar on top of tcp sockets. It isn't a message queue or anything close. You would be wasting a ton of time reimplementing a lot of basic features like retries, persistence, service discovery, dead letter queues, priority, and a ton of other stuff.
Not to be glib but these predictions are just: nothing changes. In this regard I'm conflicted, on the one hand I agree with many of your points. But on the other hand I could not have conceived of Uber and AirbnB being as influential as they were in 2010, and they already existed!
Cool idea. It would take some courage to implement this, though. A lot. :)
Iran general Qassem Suleimani killed in Baghdad drone strike
Yeah, but that's a world of difference from "director level and above", particularly at a company like Google where there are literally hundreds of VPs and Directors (if not a couple thousand).
It's common to own a laptop, iPad, a Kindle, and sometimes even a drawing tablet. They are have a tablet form factor, so these devices will probably converge into a single one.

Once the tech becomes good enough, it'll no longer make sense to own all these devices.
No, you don't have all the issues with traditional NUMA because you aren't doing the same sort of heterogeneous workloads. You're always working on local data, and streaming your outputs to the next layer. This isn't a request-response architecture; such a thing wouldn't scale.
It would be nice if the FTC did their job of breaking up conglomerates and preventing monopolistic competition. But Washington is like a plutocracy and the FTC wouldn't be serving the interests of all that network of money and favors being passed around.
Why? Are those tools going to fail? Are you going to destroy them?

Because here's the thing: if those tools fail, you die of dysentery.

Go enjoy the outdoors all you want if that's what you want to do, but this fantasy you're totally setting yourself up to survive...something? is just that - a fantasy.
I tried to come up with some upbeat predictions but they weren't
realistic (see the bottom of this comment.) So here's what I got, and it's mostly pretty bleak:

Major climate disasters. Fisheries collapse, crops and livestock
devastated by disease, heat, drought. (~25% of the pigs in the world died last year.) Famines. Mass migrations. Unilateral geoengineering.

> "People always raid before they starve."

https://spaswell.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/dr-gwynne-dyer-geo...

AI tools will destroy the job market for programmers. Most necessary
software is already written, it just needs to be selected and configured.

Governments of all kinds will use technology to lock down their subjects
and this will be welcomed.

Organ regeneration (-or- organ theft becomes more common.)
"What Bodies Think About: Bioelectric Computation Outside the Nervous
System" (youtube.com) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18736698

Fusion finally. "Fusion in a magnetically-shielded-grid inertial
electrostatic confinement device" (arxiv.org)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21539103

- - - -

So what about unrealistic-but-possible crazy stuff?

The "Electric Universe" crackpottery turns out to be true and
artificial gravity starts a huge exo-planet-bound exodus. "Cities in
Flight" eh? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cities_in_Flight

Levin's lab's work leads to scientific acceptance of the personhood of
Gaia. Communications are formally initiated and together we regenerate
the Earth almost overnight. Humanity is welcomed (back) into galactic
civilized society.

Neurolinguistic Programming et. al. reaches critical mass and
reprogramming yourself becomes commonplace. Reason and capability
conspire to engender a mass movement to "Be excellent to each other."
Humanity is welcomed (back) into galactic civilized society.
> Well isn't it? What attack is possible here? What attack was ever possible?

No. Unsurprisingly the result is exactly what you'd expect. Idiots build software that throws away the error result and returns the unauthenticated text. This has always happened, which is why AEAD modes exist now. EFail documents what it names "CFB gadgets" to abuse this in typical HTML-based OpenPGP clients but you could attempt the same fun attacking a human subject directly, in some ways it might be easier because humans tend to just sort of "read past" nonsense in the search for meaning.

Phil Zimmerman didn't have a better option. You do.

> You use the best ones supported by the receiver as listed in their public key

So, you never use anything in the least bit new unless you're communicating with somebody who just minted new keys. For older users, you're stuck with whatever was current in the software version they ran five, ten, twenty years ago.