skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Devil's advocate. What if everything Google has done and is doing is actually good for what a company is actually generally meant to do... generate revenue. The company has been growing and as it is now publicly traded, stockholder value very much becomes the drum beat.

Of course one can argue that Google is no longer the altruistic, everyone has value place it used to be, but perhaps it no longer wants to be. This is not necessarily a failure, just a re-prioritization of goals. For every story of someone leaving Google and blaming X, there are a thousand people eager to fill that now vacant role.

The stock is doing very well and the company is the undisputed king of search and actively targeting other industries. It appears what they are doing org. wise may be accomplishing exactly what it is meant to do.
Japanese teachers expel school intruder with the Sasumata
* IoT/Smart-Home tech calms down a little and focuses on what it does well instead of trying to be all-encompassing and ending up half-baked. Ends up being fairly normalized.

* Nuclear still goes nowhere, wind and solar continue to rise in use. Maybe some Elon-esque person starts experimenting with gravity batteries.

* Self driving cars still aren't a thing.

* The price war with uber and lyft ends, and both are still around just more pricey. Food delivery for regular restaurants will stop but chains and delivery only places in cities stick around.

* Commercial FM Radio will be close to death and shut down in a lot of areas.

* Silicon Valley continues it's pattern of cycling monopolies, or ya know, just buying the next one.

Cynical Takes:

* The general public in the US becomes increasingly sick/disinterested/numb as social media and blogs become ambiguously trustworthy (bots, propaganda, etc.) and and local media is swallowed/assimilated into large media groups.

* Moderate cuts to US and UK social benefits continue gradually over the decade.

Hot Takes:

* Twitter gets nationalized due to it's frequent use by politicians.

* Small scale functional fusion reactor is built/being built by the end of the decade, presumably in Europe.
I remember Digg Labs produced some really cool animated real-time visualisations of stories on the site.

A little Googling suggests that they were collaborations. But I wonder if the data scientists were also involved

http://v1.stamen.com/clients/digg.html
http://www.visualcomplexity.com/vc/project.cfm?id=585
But what happens to cost?
It's wild that this continual destruction of evidence is not only tolerated but SOP. It's just so convenient! Imagine if commit messages disappeared after 6mo!
Has there literally ever been a case where a merger actually improved things for customers to the extent suggested by the merging companies? I certainly can't think of one.
Synching up is a challenge. I am remotely managing a team of mostly young, inexperienced but highly motivated individuals at a very early stage startup. I have to spend a lot of time on calls and in chats to understand their individual contexts, coordinate work, provide guidance where necessary. I also sometimes am late responding to their queries over chat when busy with technical work, which adds to their problems at times. I also find that i have to put in a greater effort to win and keep their trust and that even small mistakes at my end create a greater trust deficit which needs to be breached somehow. There are times when i feel that i am not doing justice to the team and that it would be easier for them to be managed by someone who was colocated with them.
I've run into this recently when trying to launch a new site after being away from web design for nearly 15 years (i.e. since smartphones). The tools, expectations, and target devices are so different now. After looking at the Source of most sites these days, I'm honestly surprised that anything works at all.

What can seem to be a simple site on the surface might contain dozens if not hundreds of pages of attached code. Gone are the days where sites used just a few pages of HTML+CSS to display everything. It's rare to find a site designed in the past 3 years and to view the source and think "someone definitely hand coded this" and even more unlikely to find a site that loads less than 1MB of resources these days -- even an old school site like Slashdot is >5MB now. That's insane.
Only goes up due to even less competition.
My predictions (writing this before reading others' so I'm not too corrupted yet ;)

* The AR revolution starts/takes hold. We move from holding 5" screens in front of us to glasses-mounted or contact-lens based AR devices.

* Crystal (the language) gets more popular and Svelte (the framework) gets more popular.

* WebAssembly takes shape, languages other than JavaScript become first-class citizens of the web, but ES27/ES28/ES29 still dominates.

* Cryptocurrencies get relegated to the sidelines as purely speculative instruments, but Blockchain finally finds some real commercial uses.

* Electric cars reach 50% market share in US / Western Europe.

* At least one major gas station brand converts at least some of its stations to 50/50 electric. The era of going to EVGo charging stations in Whole Foods parking lots ends.

* San Francisco goes through at least one strong (but not 2008-level) downturn of at least ~2 years. Real estate prices stabilize.

* There will be at least five trillion-dollar companies

* There will be at least five 100-billion-dollar companies that haven't been founded as of today.

Can't wait to come back to this on 1/1/30!
I missed that prediction. I did however see a great article a while ago on just how cheap and efficient modern chicken production is ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JiYVoHEV5hs ). Pork is still a default ingredient in the majority of Asian dishes despite doubling in price. My prediction would be that meat alternatives will remain niche, the size of which dependent on how good their marketing turns out to be. On cost they are competing against generic engineering (and breeding) of animals and high intensity farming practices. Nobody is talking about reducing pork production in China, and it will be large pig farms replacing the devastated ones. And maybe the monster-size pig breeding initiatives will pay off. Meat consumption is a social issue, not an economic one.
Oh? Then why do thousands of engineers do then?

Are you trying to imply something about them or am I reading too much into this?
Counter-anecdote: I've experimented with this stuff extensively in various settings and have known many other people who did, and in my experience it's unequivocally bullshit.

Here's what happens.

First, any given trip alleviates depression for about a month or two. That makes sense to me in a sense that the word "trip" isn't a coincidence-- a really fun intense vacation in a foreign country also alleviates depression for a month or two. You swear that when you come back things will be different, but then you have to answer slack messages at 9pm, and your project is slipping at work, and your wife is flirting with strangers every time you go to a bar, and well... in a month or two you're back to feeling exactly the same way you did before (until you take the next vacation).

Second, people who discover psychedelics go on a multiyear quest for enlightenment. They keep taking various drugs, keep feeling like they understand things better and better, get sucked into the psychedelic social vortex of other truth-seekers, and generally believe that their life is full of meaning and is going to turn around at any moment. Except by any objective measure they're still nervous wrecks-- they have every physiological symptom of stress and depression, and aside from temporary alleviation of their symptoms (see part one), they always regress to the mean.

Third, after a few years of this people eventually reach a fork. Most people realize that their psychonautic journey is at best leading them in circles, and at worst is causing their life to spiral down the drain. So they give it up, get a job without 9pm slack messages (or find a better way to adjust to stress), marry someone who isn't constantly on the verge of cheating, start doing regular exercise, and generally find a way to settle into a reasonably balanced life.

A small minority of people double down, grow out their (usually grey by then) hair down to their shoulders, go to festivals and workshops, talk of energy and chi and chakras, stare into the eyes of strangers, and touch each other's faces.

Generally speaking, I haven't run into anyone yet who found a third path. So, while I'd be the first to admit I'm wrong and celebrate if this proves to actually work, if I were a betting man I'd bet against at any reasonable odds and sleep secure in the knowledge that my money is safe.
AI wasn't totally unknown: basically every coastal university during the 1970s and 1980s were filled with people working on AI, and it didn't die off, it just became embarrassing to work on.
>I need a chat application where I can have a client that I can use in my terminal, and Signal doesn't do that

Have you looked at signald or Signal-CLI?

https://gitlab.com/thefinn93/signald
https://github.com/AsamK/signal-cli
Actually I really do. I'm wondering how I could, in terms of investment, without risk of pivoting of specific companies etc.
I couldn’t remember them until I started needing them. Figure eight, clovehitch, barrel knot, overhand, and fisherman’s are my daily drivers for climbing. Prussiks are useful, but there are more efficient ways of doing progress capture.

Bowlines can be used instead of figure eights, but they can shake open if you aren’t careful, which is obviously bad.
Yup! We should celebrate now. :))

- Desktop usage will decline for gaming as well as general use. Consoles, iPads, chromebooks like devices will take over here.

- States will compel companies to install their mandatory citizenware and China like social credit will emerge.

- More applications will move to web using wasm. Major defaults by companies will be more fucked up than today as they stop caring so users will be driven towards places where they can customize and have sane defaults.

- Rise of open source software targeting Linux first before anything else.

Since desktop will target professionals more than they do now and those tend to be privacy-freedom focused, the choice is clear.
I'll try some big and bold predictions:

In finance, BTC price stabilises around 100 kUSD after peaking at 115k

In industry, Telsa goes bankrupt and is bought by a foreign car marker wanting to set foot in the US

In telecoms, an established foreign network starts a 4th national network in the US

In tech, a third CPU builder emerges next to AMD and Intel, likely from China.

In biology, we discover how methylation works, a few regenerative therapies based on differentiated stem cells become available in Asia and Latin america

In politics, freedom of movement in the Shengen area is replaced by passport control + biometric verification, and fascists take power in one or more of the big EU countries
So what exactly is a "cyber tool"? For example, would a debugger be considered such, and what would it mean for open source tools?
Beware Safe (The Scaled Agile Framework for Enterprise)
Habana does both training and inference. Gaudi is for training, Goya is for inference.
> - China will not become a democracy, or even make moves in that direction. However the rule of law will strengthen, and some civil liberties will increase.

The latter half of this one didn't come to be. Rule of law is weaker and civil liberties have declined.
This just sounds like typescript with extra JS code
I loved the concept. My home FBO supported it, so was thinking I'd be styling since I traveled very frequently for work. I was never once able to just say 'here is my medical, insurance, and OpenAirplane signoff - and use a C152/C172/C182 just like all the others. Every single one basically wanted a one hour checkout or so, which is what most FBOs do when you are renting.
Troy Hunt: When Is Data “Public”? (and 2.5M Public Factual Records in HIBP)
It's called aquihire: you buy the company to redirect the talent and bury the product.
1. No one on mars

2. Climate change has no significant impact, but whenever there's a hurricane climate change zealots tell everyone to repent because the end is near

3. Nikki Haley is the Republican nominee, but loses to a white male Democrat

4. Quantum Computing still irrelevant

5. Africa has its first major globally dominant tech company, but most of the employees are
from India

6. AR is everywhere, but no one calls it AR

7. Veganism loses its appeal as aging vegans look increasingly frail

8. Pitchfork gives BNR and a 8+ rating to a reissue of a Skrillex album it panned in the 2000s.
A new form of AI will be invented, that will lead the way to AGI. This theory will also be able to explain consciousness and brain processes to a great extent, and we will at least know why we can't yet build it.
I wish that CCPA would require companies to have the same url for opting out of data collection (ie: ms.com/nodatacollection, ggl.com/nodatacollection, etc...)
* There will be a game-changing quantum hack of everyone's social/email/financial account passwords. It will be called, "Pandora's Dox."
Haven’t had that experience. Just pulled out my Kindle that I haven’t used in a month yesterday and still 90% battery life.
Memory engrams: Recalling the past and imagining the future
The S&P 500 will close on Dec 31, 2029 above where it opened on Jan 1, 2020.
Well, no, shit - Corellium, from what I can tell from other articles I’ve had to read, (their website is a virtual drought of information about the product) seems to have literally built its own virtualization platform to emulate specific iOS devices - and is likely literally just throwing IPSW files (the actual iOS releases from Apple themselves) onto this emulator and selling it as a service.

As much as I believe in the open and free exchange of ideas I can’t actually agree with iFixit here.

The excuse of it being sold as a ‘security product’ contradicts the only statement on their website - that its a tool for development.

John Deere locking farmers out of repairing their own hardware? Awful, shitty behaviour.

But this is literally stealing Apple’s OS, shoving it in an emulator and charging people for it.

This article also makes the fallacious argument that Apple ‘gives away’ iOS with the purchase of an iPhone or iPad. That’s silly - the cost of the OS is built into the purchase price.

The R&D and development time and money that goes into iOS or MacOS is part of what we are paying for when we purchase a device from Apple.

When we purchase a computer from Dell with Windows 10, the cost of the OS is bundled with the purchase - but Microsoft still gets paid from that - unless, of course we might order the specific subset of Dell computers with Linux on them.

I expect better from iFixit. This article reads like a sob story from the CEO of the company. You stole their software. What did you expect?

How is this any different from a company that would sell you a preconfigured hackintosh? Or selling a DVD player with an unlicensed movie on it? :/

We can bitch about iOS and MacOS being closed platforms all we want - but for myself and many others the hardware/software package-as-a-unit is actually a huge part of the point.
From my recent comment [1]:

- VIDEO becomes what people thought VR/AR would be. Reality becomes mediated through video, not 3D graphics.

This is analogous to all the technical components for social networks being there in 1993 (BBSes, Prodigy, CompuServe, AOL, etc.), but Facebook didn't exist until 2004. And in 2010 people and businesses still needed websites -- the web was still growing like crazy 20 years later.

YouTube was acquired in 2006, Twitch was acquired in 2014, and there will be another big acquisition of a video company in the 2020's. (I hesitate to say that a video company will become bigger than Google or Facebook, but maybe.)

(BTW I followed the link to lesswrong, and someone predicted "videoconferencing" as a 2010's technology, and I think that was pretty accurate. I used little videoconferencing from 2000-2010 but used it a lot from 2010-2020.)

(And I hope in 10 years nobody points out that I learned how to clean my toilet on YouTube :) :) ;) 50/50 chance on that YouTube video still being there.)

- People will still wish for decentralization, and most of "FAANG" will still exist and be powerful. As I noted in the update to my comment, there will be "big data and compute" on the edge of the network, i.e. the data plane. But the control plane will still be centralized.

That will become a very common systems architecture. Computation and data won't be as centralized as they are with AWS, but "the cloud" will still be dominant.

- Self-driving cars won't impact the average consumer in the next 10 years. It will continue to be cheaper to operate rideshares with human drivers in most parts of the world and most terrains/climates. It will make sense for commercial applications though.

- Addendum: Even though IoT products are widely mocked now, and for good reason, I think the trend is inevitable. Automation is economically valuable and technologically feasible.

The IoT tech stack improve and many useful new applications will be found. There will still be security concerns and thus some significant holdouts. But overall both industrial and consumer "IoT" will greatly expand in the next decade.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21929342
This is what I supposed with the dates suspiciously in perfect synchronization, from the 12 to the 12 a semester later.
Your assumption is wrong. The tax I would support is entirely theoretical and would raise the prices of all industrial products on the market from all forms of food to all forms of textiles and all forms of computers and machinery. I suspect that if it were ever implemented properly to begin with, it would become a target to steer into a kind of sin tax or luxury tax by doubling the rate on this or that product or zero rating it for others, so I can’t say I necessarily even would support it. Show me a policy proposal and I’ll say “maybe”.

Suffering doesn’t enter into it, but I don’t like subsidies. If the problem with climate change is that my lifestyle is being subsidized because the “true cost” isn’t in the purchase price, I’ll pay it, but so should everyone. I’ll be paying more for meat, but I’ll also be paying more for spinach, and coffee, and spices, and salt, and clothes, and every single industrial good that I buy. And so would everyone, because the net result would be to see the purchasing power of everyone decrease. I can live with that if you can, even factoring in my dietary preferences, I’m willing to bet money I have a lower net contribution to climate change than most in my country.
I take that it's a list of things you hope will happen but know will not happen?
Kancho Survival Guide or How to Defend Your Butt from Japanese Children
A Trucker's Hitch is a _super_ useful thing to be able to rig. There are dozens of ways to tie it, and just as many situations where it is useful.
As an aside I want to say I really like this book. One of the best resources to learn emacs, it puts a lot of emphasis on teaching how the help system works and how to find the way around the editor independently of how it is configured.
> probably not in wilderness, you're in a major metropolis surrounded by people and navigating social dynamics will be more important than being able to sew a goat into a cape.

Get to know your local HAM radio enthusiasts.
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We're looking for:

* Backend Node/TS Devs

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I'm on the dev team working on projects for PwC (our largest client). Ask me any questions you might have at (jmealey(at)clearlyagileinc.com), or apply for a position at https://www.clearlyagileinc.com/careers
I know this is like a hindsight 20/20 thing, but it would seem to me the only 'problems' left to solve are just the really hard ones (even on the scale of a decade): fusion, unified field theory, intelligent / extraterrestrial life, becoming multi-planetary species, etc.

My feeling is that biotech or nanotech have the most room for something revolutionary or unforseen to be produced
That's not a bad thing. How much of your GDP do you want to spend on healthcare?

Let's suppose that healthcare costs half what it does (never mind how). What do you want to buy with the savings? More plastic stuff? More food?

Or do you want to buy more healthcare?

To me it seems reasonable for a society to spend what it has to on food and shelter, and some reasonable level on infrastructure and entertainment and leisure, and then spend all the rest on healthcare. Why? Because having people not die is a pretty big deal. If we can buy more of that, let's. Let's buy as much of it as we can afford.
Predictions:

- Due to more control systems being networked, and processes automated, there will be a bug or hack that results in a disaster scenario where people are seriously hurt and die.

- Similar to other nations in the 2010's, the US will make use of an internet 'kill switch' to stem leaks, dissent or unrest. This might mean turning off access to a particular resource on the internet or web access altogether for a large region.

- Decentralized solutions to cloud-hosted services will be productized and shipped to consumers. Today's edge computing, home automation hubs, etc will combine with a Synology-type product that lets you add storage, modules, etc and run apps for your home and personal network. This will contrast with PCs that are general purpose and still too complex for the average person to put together, and today's Synology products that are typically geared towards data hoarding and require a bit of knowledge to use.

- The mobile operating system options will broaden, and a viable option for open software enthusiasts will open up.

- The glut of capital in the consumer space will dry up as that market holds less and less purchasing power. Most people will look back on the 2010's and their many investor subsidized 'X-as-a-Service' services comparatively fondly to their present economy that has all but abandoned them.

- The problem of "I can't get good internet speeds indoors" won't be solved for another decade, and if it is, a weird point-to-point outdoor antenna solution for buildings will be involved.

- The fact that the US relies on cheap foreign labor will come to a head as underdeveloped countries develop. More companies will be found to have foreign slave labor somewhere in their supply chain, and they will all claim ignorance when it happens.

- The bulk of developers will still be paid to write HTML + CSS + JS and it will still be a bad experience for everyone involved.

- Outside of the major metro areas, local news will be replaced by centralized services that just push out localized paid-to-publish content and ad fluff. Local governments will become much more of the good ol' boy networks that they already are today.

- At least one country will make people get chips implanted, whether they're immigrants, refugees or their own citizens.

- The Rent-a-Center model of renting goods beyond housing and vehicles (though renting of both will increase) will become more popular and not associated with RaC specifically.

- Embryonic gene editing won't catch on except for very specific indications and diseases, and rich people will rely on genetic tests for embryonic selection prior to implantation.