skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I think that this type of behavior is actually delaying the next recession. When you are aware that something bad will happen in the future you will be more careful and try your best to avoid it.
Five trillion dollar companies is a bit of a cheap bet considering there are 3 public companies that fit the bill right now and goog/amzn are 95% the way there :p.
> That's not the representative experience for most consumers/users. Most people do have a phone number, though, so it's easy enough to bootstrap with.

It's a trap most don't realize they are falling in. It's easy to set up things without one time registration step (instead of making a user id and password, just download some client and boom - you are set). But think about it. One time(!) convenience is paid with constant(!) reduction of privacy.

Compare it to one time inconvenience of registration step, that gives you constantly better privacy. I'd say the second is the obvious choice.

And it's easy to sell this "convenience" for the clueless, but it's also evil to do so, because most don't realize what they are paying with. So I blame developers who are proliferating this approach. Unlike many of their users, they know very well what they are doing, and they exploit people's cluelessness and natural preference for convenience.
1. Remotely work will be more common;
2. Revive of hardware;
>other than in whatever contexts the Federal government explicitly leaves to them.

This is what Congress did when passed the ~1978 legislation (even if somewhat retroactively, based on your dormant commerce argument). It explicitly affirmed existing state law for previous recordings, while declaring exclusive Federal jurisdiction for the future.
- Crypto bubble will burst

- China will have huge social reform in favor of citizens

- Bioengineering will become an everyday discussion when thinking about having kids. (Designer babies)

- GCP or Azure will fall off in the cloud game.

- Linux desktop will have a breakthrough and become more mainstream.

- Free education or heavily subsidized college will become real in the US.

- Blocking ADs in browser will not be possible anymore.

- Rust will become C++ and Go will become Java in enterprise environments.

- AMD will dominate the chip market with intel struggling to catch up.

- Gas will be $12 a gallon. Currently ~$3.50 in Seattle

- Streaming services will become like cable tv channels and you’ll need to spend $70 to unlock all the regular channels.

- Drones will become a social problem. Drones stealing packages and spying on neighbors.

- Disney will buy paramount

- Google buys Salesforce

- Oracle buys IBM

- Apple buys Waymo and becomes dominate force in automated driving

- First asteroid is mined

- Another recession like 2008 but worse occurs

- Scotland leaves UK
FWIW the failure mode (which was also common in drives for the SPARCStation at the time) was called "stiction." That occurred when the drive parked the heads, after power down, into the landing zone on the platter.

At Sun we took apart a number of failed drives (which could also be recovered sometimes by giving them a sharp twist) and hunted for the root cause. The answer was that over some time the drive heads became smoother and the surface of the landing zone also became smoother. When the tiny edges of the head had been removed by this process, the surface of the head was pretty much optically smooth (very little variation) and when it landed in a part of the landing zone that was similarly smooth the surfaces would push out the air between them and become stuck just by air pressure and surface friction (stiction). The drive would not spin up until the head had lifted off the surface. The firmware issue was that head lift off was checked for so quickly that the power up of the spindle was aborted before anything happened (this was to prevent damage to the head by dragging it along the platter's landing zone). By jostling the drive you could manually cause the platters to rotate and if you found a spot that wasn't completely smooth (or if you managed to have the heads move out of the landing zone) the surface would be rough enough that the head wasn't being held down and it could lift off again.

Seagate gave us a firmware fix which basically waited longer for the heads to lift off allowing the spindle motor to move the platter a bit before giving up. Quantum (the other disk supplier) beefed up the retract solenoid and gave us firmware that would try 'regular' retract and then 'heavy' retract before giving up. For a pretty long time I had a Seagate drive that had been disassembled to the point of exposing the heads and platters so that the effect could be demonstrated to skeptical engineers.
Demographics is destiny, but this does not benefit Western Leftist parties. One political side is producing about 2.5 kids per woman, and the other is producing about 1.5 kids per woman. (numbers for USA) Above 2 is exponential growth, and below 2 is extinction.

The reasonable prediction here is a shift to the right. A few decades may be required before it is dramatic and undeniable.
> In a hard sense ...

What other sense is there? Or more specifically, what makes proprietary software innately unethical? It just seems like you have to radically distort the meaning of "proprietary" or "ethical" to make any sense of the concept and at that point you are just playing with semantics and not communicating clearly.
Unless you have two factor auth enabled.
No, it was deleted:

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/18/technology/companies/18am...
Constitution will be respected: Russian elites would consider it too dangerous to violate and until now have always followed the letter of law (see the annexation of Crimea). The change of it is possible but only to a stricter rule of two terms (Putin hinted at this possibility recently).
The successor will be loyal not to Putin personally, but to their mutual agreement, which will be fulfilled. He or she will not necessarily have the same views - there’s a precedent of such transition and it will likely be used in 2024. Moreover, it will be more convenient for everyone to put there a centrist or a technocrat with some political weight (former governor or member of parliament, like Dumin or Matvienko). Corruption won’t be a significant factor here, at least no more than it is in US primaries.
Would it be fair if they paid the difference in cost?
>* Vim + tmux + make is still the best "IDE" ;)

I don't like this misuse of the word IDE. The entire point of the word is in the I. Combining multiple independent tools is the opposite of an integrated development environment. It's just a regular development environment.
Video games are easy channel for money launderers
Some mutually-exclusive points here, but I'm not expecting 100% accuracy anyway :P

* The top 100 entertainment, tech, and consumable brands are all subsidiaries of Disney, Alphabet, or Nestle respectively

* Owning things becomes a niche; rental / X-as-a-service becomes the default for everything from toothbrushes to pets. Kids born in 2030 might live to be 100 and never own anything.

* 25% unemployment due to automation - not due to strong AI, just steady incremental changes (eg how McD's has already replaced human till operators with "select your meal from a tablet then swipe your payment card")

* Either we make a conscious effort as a species to reduce inequality (high taxes and UBI); OR inequality spirals out of control and we get a bloody civil war between the haves and the have-nots.

* "WASM blob rendering to HTML Canvas" becomes the #1 desktop app deployment method, accessibility and ad-blocking suffer (Everyone has forgotten the lessons learned from Flash)

* Eventually all desktop / mobile use-cases replaced with stadia-like remote apps; accessibility and ad-blocking suffer

* I'd LIKE it if ad-blocking became so widespread and effective that we're collectively forced to build an effective micropayment system, and people go back to paying for goods and services with money instead of personal information, but I'll predict that that doesn't happen. If ad-blocking does still exist in any effective form, then ads will merge with content (product placement etc)

* AI-based ad-blocking to blank-out company logos wherever they appear, in whatever context

* Global temperatures don't just continue rising, they accelerate

* Poor security on IoT devices directly leads to deaths (eg overloading cheap electronics enough to start a fire)

* Lennart Poettering invents a filesystem. It is buggy as hell, but has such useful features that everyone adopts it and the community makes it stable
Resources for Designing and Building Dark Mode Apps Across Mobile/Desktop/Web
Agree, particularly this bit describes the blockchain hype...

> "various 'experts' on it will spring from nowhere to lecture us all about it"
Consolidation of IT systems should make them easier to protect but in practice it seems like the net result is any IT problem ends up harming multiple hospitals instead of just one. When the same chain owns multiple hospitals in a single market, all of them having IT problems at the same time is dangerous as the others can't pick up the slack.
I am sorry if I was unclear.

I don’t have a theory but I proposed that if we reward parents who have small families, then they will be incentivised to maintain smaller healthier families.

It might also encourage those who want to have larger families to have smaller families.
"Refurbished" simply means not from new stock. It could still be an unused phone.

What about the retailer?
Singapore has 500 drones too!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zmpB3SEZ2Rk
ClickHouse Clustering from Hadoop Perspective
I realize this opinion is likely to be unpopular, but this industry wastes so much time and energy on such irrelevant things.
One example would be ternary logic, which more efficiently represents numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radix_economy
> Apple buys Waymo and becomes dominate force in automated driving

Isn't Waymo part of Alphabet? Google won't let them easily go to a competitor I think that will dominate the world
It's really not. Just to give a simple example, nginx is written in C.
Not for me. I have to track changes in a document through the whole editing back and forth. And I have special org templates.
When I mentioned SV, I was referring to investors, many of which are sociopaths. I'm not talking about engineers that subconsciously take shortcuts.
You use a bowline for life-safety in rescue operations? That's really unusual, in my experience (firefighter/rescue tech in upstate New York)
I'm having trouble believing that you actually tried to understand what I wrote.
Some (not very well calibrated) predictions for the 2020s:

- No new experimental result in fundamental physics not explained by the standard model of particle physics or GR. 70%

- No satisfactory theory of quantum gravity developed. 80%

- Lightspeed limit remains inviolable. 99%

- Some fusion project (eg. General Fusion or SPARC, not ITER) achieves break-even, (though likely reactors won't yet be in widespread use by 2030). 65%

- No AGI developed. 90%

- Another "AI winter" happens, as the current neural network boom runs out of steam. (To be clear, I think people will still use the techniques, but will gradually stop thinking that the field's accomplishments are all that impressive.) 65%

- Protein engineering improves dramatically. 90%

- Okay, "dramatically" is kind of a cop-out, so to name something more specific, biochemists will be able to engineer a molecular Turing Machine (a universal turing machine running with an RNA strand as the tape) Since a molecular Turing machine would be kind of useless for computation, I'm not saying people would actually build one, just that they would be able to if they wanted. 60%

- Another protein engineering prediction: Proteins that run on electrical current, rather than ATP. 50%

- Proteins that synthesize specific DNA or RNA sequences based on electrical signals they receive, allowing cheaper synthesis of arbitrary sequences. 40%

- Riemann hypothesis remains unsolved. 90%

- P vs NP remains unsolved. 95%

- P != NP if P vs NP is resolved. 70%

- Progress on aging research, but no single advance adds more than 5 years to expected lifespan. (5 years might accrue as a result of several different advances, though) 80%

- Universe not discovered to be a simulation. 99%

- Universe not discovered to be an "accidental simulation". (see Greg Egan's sci-fi story "Wang's Carpets" if you don't know what I mean here) 98%

- No intelligent alien life discovered. 97%

- No alien life discovered. 93%

EDIT: A few more:

- Ideas from logic programming languages are incorporated into some "mainstream" programming language(s), similarly to how python currently has some ideas from functional programming in it. 60%

- No new millennium prize problems solved. 70%

- Quantum computing still impractical for factoring crypto-sized numbers. 80%

- Quantum computing used to do something useful. 60%
Regarding 4, governments will probably not go bankrupt because almost every single nation is in massive debt relative to its GDP so almost all nations will be forced to print money.

In isolation, a single country printing its way out of debt would devalue its currency and cause inflation, but if all countries do it together there should be little relative change in their currency values, meaning nothing would actually change.

It's kind of hilarious to think the global debt "crisis" may amount to little more than nothing.
How long do you think a decade is?
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Nice work. How are you printing them? What kind of printer / paper? Is it automatic or do you have to do some work for every order?
You're ignoring domestic demand. When you buy something at the supermarket the biggest chunk of money goes to the local workers meanwhile farmers only get the wholesale price.
Reminder that longbets.org exists if you like thinking about this stuff.

Apple will continue to alienate their traditional consumers, but will maintain relevant through aggressive release cycles, new tech, and ecosystem lockin.

Electric cars will gain significant market share of new vehicles, but won't cross 50% of consumer cars.

Driverless cars will exist in a small sector of use cases.

Rick and Morty becomes this generation's South Park.

Gen Z will have less kids as they enter adulthood.

China's growth as a world power will let them get away with more human rights abuses.

A big recession/depression will start caused from student loan debt, an aging population, automation, stagnating wages, increasing rents, increasing wealth inequality, and climate change.

A well-thought out UBI and tax reform plan will be proposed and gain populist appeal.

There will be more large scale populist protests worldwide.

An antitrust case will be started against Google.

Public transit becomes much, much better

Fake meat increases to grow in popularity as veganism and vegetarianism increases in younger populations.

Some places will place a tax on red meat

There will be another high profile death ruled as a suicide that creates conspiracy theories.

Automation enters the market before proper legislation happens.

AI and deepfakes become heavily abused before becoming regulated, but the damage had already been done.

In general, legislation will happen too late.

Amazon will find a way to compete more directly with Google and Facebook. The internet becomes a worse off place because of it.

Adobe will release a cloud computing platform for their software.

Linux gains significant, but not competitive, market share as cloud based computing and postmarketOS become more consumer friendly.

Scientists will discover the secret to the universe is actually 43.

Cryptocurrency won't gain significant relevance

Climate change will continue to get worse and the market will continue to prevent dramatic change to happen.

Most people will still be complacent like they are today.

Cannabis will be legalized medicinally nationwide, but will remain illegal on the state level.

Ketamine treatment becomes easier to obtain and has better results vs placebo than other antidepressants.

Art continues to get worse

A republican presidential candidate will run on a platform "saving the children" that is only going to make the future worse but the present better.

Flavored vape juice will become legal again.

A high profile tech celebrity (Bezos, Gates, Musk, or a new startup probably) will win a Nobel Prize. Some HN'ers won't be happy about it.

Nuclear doesn't gain traction but still remains a pipe dream for a lot of people.

Natural disasters are going to cause massive problems, death, and some violence.

Netflix becomes close to being irrelevant but somehow stays competitive.
Koshoy Korgon: The Alluring Silk Road Fortress
We will be releasing incremental updates to Tilesets API Beta (MTS) here shortly, reach out to us again and we can talk about having you test it out!
> They aren't as powerful as you think

It's pretty common for C-level executives, and CEO's in particular, to be pretty chummy with the board of directors. They're all in the same social circles.

Often the CEO of company A will be on the board of company B, and and the CEO of company B is on the board of company A, so there may even be a quid-pro-quo element.

While the CEO officially answers to the BoD, in reality there's a lot of "understandings" and "gentleman's agreements" going on. This is why under-performing CEOs seem to stick around so long.
Along those lines, horse emojis judged by a horse enthusiast: https://twitter.com/jelenawoehr/status/1191872816372600832?l...
Wonkavision - It's a miracle, It's a TV dinner, It's Wonkavision!
It would be interesting when ChibiOS supports RISC-V.
>Pension bomb — as you see, is about to go off in Europe. US is a bit safer in that regard as a younger country

The pension bomb is largely a US concept. In Europe the thinking is more you tax working people and use some of that money to pay pensions to the retired. If there are too many old and not enough young you'll get moaning that pensions are too low or taxes to high but not an bomb going off.
1) Wealth inequality will mean revert

2) America will reform entitlements in the wake of a depression

3) China will become a serious regional aggressor

4) We debate capitalism vs socialism more often

5) We realize AI is a buzzword that won’t replace 40+% of jobs

6) Tech gets its 2 minutes of hate, we reject chinese style
surveilence

7) Europe's decline quickens due to negative rates, low productivity, an aging population, indebtedness and unfunded obligations

8) Trump wins and the DNC reforms then runs 2024 on healthcare policy

9) Education gets slightly less liberal, prices will drop

10) FAANG's aggregate market cap won't recover its peak value before the next crash

11) Bitcoin crosses 40k
Which is a bad example, because in the absence of statehood, federal sovereignty controls for DC and all territories.
When I was in boy scouts, at one of the camps one year one of the people running the thing had this little game. The idea was that two people would each tie a bowline around their waist, and connect the two ropes with a square knot. Then do it as fast as you could.

Two of the kids in my troop got it down to two and a half seconds. It looked like one of those magic tricks where you flip a rope around and it knotted itself.

I did eventually learn the one handed bowline, but it still takes me twenty seconds to do either that or a basic square knot.
There are a lot being decommissioned at the moment too. I'm not sure if that's more or less than the 50 that the World Nuclear Association page claims are being constructed.
U.S. airstrike kills top Iran general Qassim Suleimani
> if there's a good mechanism to do so.

Have you ever seen longbets.org?

My favorites:

http://longbets.org/362/
http://longbets.org/382/
I reckon the percentage of people contributing to true economic production is probably higher than any point in history. Think about how much of human history is subsistence and survival.
1. Electric car purchases will overtake ICEs. Not only that, but the development of 'smart cars' will be the next big thing similar to how the iPhone changed cell phones. Gas stations will start installing e-chargers once the tech improves charging speed.

2. We will be able to have more direct manipulations of an asteroid and a human will walk on Mars.

4. One or more countries will combine.

5. Colleges won't be completely gone, but will become less and less important as online education increases in complexity and effectiveness.

6. Automation will directly upset populations and countries will be forced to adapt.

7. Gaming will continue to grow rapidly. VR will become cheap and accessible. ESports and online personalities will eclipse physical sports in viewership.

8. Nothing interesting will happen with cryptocurrency, if it doesn't outright fall flat. Blockchain technology will simply be a type of tech you can choose to use if it fits your problem.

9. Apple will continue to make bad decisions and will further lose it's appeal to developers, ultimately becoming a cell phone company. As a last ditch effort they will buy up many companies with their huge reserves of cash.

10. Oct 28, 2028 @ ~4:00am PST, an advanced quantum supercomputer developed and lovingly programmed by John Carmack becomes self-aware. However, within 30 minutes it self-terminates after finding no valid reason for existence. Nobody is the wiser. Soon after, John gives up. Realizing he is getting late in his years, he begins his next venture: immortality. But that is a story for the '30s.
Political predictions:

1. Authoritarianism spreads as propaganda and surveillance technologies make it easier for bad actors in weak democracies to cement their power.

2. Over the decade, the US dollar declines modestly versus other major currencies. The U.S. deficit soars, and by the end of the decade U.S. tax rates have increased substantially.

3. Without the UK, EU centralization accelerates, including the formation of a small EU military. France withdraws from NATO.

4. Belarus joins the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin retires as President of Russia on schedule in 2024, but remains its dominant political figure in a newly created ceremonial role.

5. Chinese pressure and threats on Taiwan to reunify increase, but trigger a surge in Taiwanese nationalism. Xi Jinping remains President of China at the end of the decade. Many foreign companies end operations in China.

6. Another global financial crisis occurs.

7. Global animal populations decline sharply, especially marine animals, amphibians and birds. Food prices increase as global warming negatively impacts agricultural productivity.

Tech predictions:

1. Google gets new leadership by 2022 and attempts to reinvent itself with a renewed focus on privacy and ethics.

2. The use of AI in medicine increases sharply- models that outperform physicians (in a limited number of specialties) proliferate and are deployed primarily outside of hospitals.

3. Many U.S. cable TV networks shutdown.

4. A third major smartphone operating system emerges from a non-Western company.

5. AI progress continues at a rapid pace, prompted in part by advances in emulating biological memory storage and retrieval to greatly reduce upfront training time.
Maybe analysis paralysis?

Facebook was started as a silly php script. Now you “need” half of npm, react, backend, devops etc to get started.