skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> a Bayesian looks at this and says that no matter what prior you pick, the knowledge that they planned to have children until they had both a boy and a girl does not affect your posterior conclusion

A Bayesian would say no such thing...

Actually they would if they understood the formula. Bayes' formula has no place to put for things that could have been observed had things turned out differently, but which didn't actually happen. Therefore mighta, woulda, coulda but didn't cannot affect your conclusions. Ever.

However, a Bayesian would also say that the knowledge that they planned to have children until they had both a boy and a girl significantly changes the likelihood ratio (or p-value, if you prefer to use that) associated with the observed data. And one of the advantages of Bayesianism is that it forces you to make that explicit as well.

I am not sure how you think that the calculation should be carried out. But it certainly shouldn't be done the way that you describe.

If your prior was that a fraction p of the children would be boys, the odds of the observed outcome would be p^6 * (1-p). It is that regardless of which version of the experiment you run. The conditional probability the outcome being around p given the data is the odds in your prior of the probability being around p, divided by the a priori odds of the observed outcome, 6 boys and then a girl. The calculation is the same in both versions of the experiment and therefore the conclusion is as well.

And Bayesianism does something else too: it forces you to recognize that the p-value is not actually the answer to the question you were asking! By the p-value criterion, at least with the typical threshold of 0.05, the null hypothesis (that your aunt and uncle are not biased towards having one gender) is rejected. But a Bayesian recognizes that the prior probability of the gender ratio, based on abundant previous evidence, is strongly peaked around 50-50, much more strongly peaked than data with a bias equivalent to a p-value of 2/127 can overcome. So the Bayesian is quite ready to accept that your aunt and uncle had no actual bias towards having boys, they just happened to be one of the statistical outliers that are to be expected given the huge number of humans who have children.

Actually a Bayesian with access to actual population data would be aware, as you aren't, that globally we average 1.07 boys to each girl at birth. Therefore most couples, likely including my aunt and uncle, were probably biased towards having boys.

There is a good deal of coincidence involved in my actually having the setup for a classic criticism of frequentism in a close relative. But if it happened, the odds were in favor of it involving 6 boys and a girl rather than the other way around.
Form what I remember that AI could only do one pose.
To avoid any confusion, these are 2 separate games:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tron_2.0
vs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tron:_Evolution
Well considering I get paid 5x than those jobs, it seems like a success to me. In fact, Scala devs are the highest paid in the industry, according to stack overflow.
Are we thinking Intel is Amazon’s next Barnes and Noble?
How? Show me how can I, remotely:

- Login with no SSH account

- Enable SSH

- Change PF rules

- Change the smtpd config

- Enable radiusd/ldapd without being root

- Running Xenocara's xlock when is not
available on servers and I have no permissions
Hey man, at least we aren't speaking German!
My argument is that user behaviour proves that this solution isn't actually a solution. It shifts the blame, but it doesn't solve the problem.

Developers will just allow the bad code access to the things it says it needs, because it says it needs them. Meanwhile we have another sandbox layer to deal with, which isn't good.

We need to reduce the proliferation of dependencies, and only use them for important things, to reduce the attack surface. And we need to tighten up the package managers so typosquatting and duplication of interfaces is flagged (if not banned), and we need some kind of static analysis that flags what capabilities a library uses. And I'm sure there's lots more ways of solving it that I can't think of here.
As somebody who lives close to the Hamburg Airbus Factory and read a lot about the Boeing story: the regulators are more strict within the EU, and my feeling is the biggest mistake in the whole Boeing saga was to have them regulate themselves.

While there might be a economic benefit to not having to go the extra mile to get a regulators aproval, this can bite you really badly if you cannot uphold quality yourself any longer. And the interviews I heard wirh Boeing personel is nothing I ever heard even in personal exchanges with Airbus people. They surely also have their issues, bur to me it feels like a few magnitudes difference in severity.

So in short: underfunding the FAA isn’t doing you airplane manufacturers a favour in the long term. I know in the US people are usually anxious to give any job to the state, but regulating is actually one of the things they should do, and should do well
And in particular, if you sell low churn saas (like we do), you can comfortably spend the first year's annual contract value on customer acquisition and have an extremely profitable business. Just huge initial marketing costs.

And quite possibly huge ongoing marketing costs! But if churn is low, or even negative, you can assume something like 10 year customer lifetimes, with a comfortable 5-ish percent cost increase per year, on sale for the first year's contract value. If you have cheap-ish money available, you should buy as many of those as the world is willing to sell.
Those poor Sacklers...
> No, the p-value is defined as the likelihood of a result at least as extreme as the one we obtained, under the null hypothesis.

Define for me in an objective way what "at least as extreme" is. Let's say I think the string "HHTHT" is extremely indicative of conspiracy. Then the p-value is 1/32 on the measure of "strings of coin flips at least this extremely indicative of conspiracy".

See, this sounds completely ridiculous, but it's not in principle any different from what it done in thousands of social science papers a year. All these supposedly objective procedures have tons of ambiguity. For example:

> For the coin flip case, one way would be to call results with more imbalanced ratio more extreme.

Why an imbalanced total ratio? Why not average length of heads? Average number of occurrences of "HT"? Frequency of alternations between H and T? Average fraction of times H appears counting only even tosses? Given the combinatorial explosion of possible criteria, I guarantee you I can find a simple-sounding criterion on which any desired string of fair tosses gets a low p-value.
Fair point. But if after 2 years you haven't found a business model, it might be better to fire couple of the product people and get dedicated biz people, as opposed to waiting 5.5 years and then go belly up.
> The future isn't always like the past. Causal first principles thinking matters!

Hmm...
Depends on the goal.

If the risk factor is homogenized, then the variable researched can be isolated theoretically.

However, this doesn’t allow you to test for interaction between those variables.

In the study for example, they identify an apparent interaction between ethnicity and the chemicals mentioned; we don’t know what the effect size would be (whether additive, multiplicative, or something else entirely).

(This is without any domain knowledge of the mechanisms of breast cancer to be fair.)
Boy. His book "Inside the IBM PC" was my first intro to really understanding how computers work and now I'm counting almost 20 years working as a software engineer. I think that book set me on this path because, IIRC, it talked about BASIC and might have had some programs printed in it and I typed them up in QBASIC. From that point on, I used QBASIC's help menus to teach myself how to program. I owe that man a debt of gratitude.
The storm about that was so stupid. Tons of good and high-ranking people don't have degrees in the field, and somehow working for other IT companies suddenly didn't count as experience because it was just too funny to drag the music degree out. (It's quite possible she wasn't qualified for what they'd actually needed or bad at the job, but "LOL music degree" isn't a reason to assume that)
Why is that a bad thing? If you are profitable, why would you want to give up equity and control?
Really goes to show that games are no different a medium from books or film, and must be preserved and maintained in perpetuity in case that latter generations will want to consume them.
> Do I go with a domain I own?

This one, it’s this one.

Losing your domain tends to require human action: from someone forgot to pay the renewal to someone messed up and sinkholed it because they thought it was a C2 server.

But because humans are in the system there tend to be layers of processes that try to prevent you from getting to this state and can get your world back to normal if you do.

Gmail offers nothing like this. When the ML algorithms decide you are too many sigma in the “abnormal” category, you are done. And there is no one to talk to who can fix your problem.
>Put a flat prior on theta and you end up with an 84% posterior probability that theta is greater than 0. Step back a bit, and it’s saying that you’ll offer 5-to-1 odds that theta>0 after seeing an observation that is statistically indistinguishable from noise. That can’t make sense. Go around offering 5:1 bets based on pure noise and you’ll go bankrupt real fast.

If you think it's likely to be pure noise, why the hell would you put a flat prior on it?

Note also that nonflat priors are implicit in significance testing - e.g. p95 significance is similar to putting a 95% prior on the null hypothesis, and p99 significance is similar to putting a 99% prior on the null hypothesis.
I've been following the author for a while now (no personal connection), and I'm taken with the ideas. Mainly because it's never seemed right to me that economics' "rational person" doesn't resemble anyone in the real world.

[0] also out today explains it starting from a concrete example:

> the coin toss game seems worth playing because equal probability of a 50% gain and a 40% loss are no different from a 5% gain.*

> Why people don't choose to play the game, seemingly ignoring the opportunity to gain a steady 5%, has been explained psychologically-- people, in the parlance of the field, are "risk averse". But according to Peters, these explanations don't really get to the root of the problem, which is that the classical "solution" lacks a fundamental understanding of the individual's unique trajectory over time.

You can also get his full lecture notes at [1].

[0] https://www.santafe.edu/news-center/news/fix-economic-theory...

[1] https://ergodicityeconomics.com/lecture-notes/
> Thus it is not accurate to say that “ICE doesn’t conduct border operations” - they themselves say they do.

OK, I'll bite. You originally stated: "...in that they are engaging in inhumane actions against people at the border. To me, from what I have read, it seems well-documented and supported with a lot of testimony, first-hand accounts, video, and images. Satellite photos, even."

What, exactly, are you referring to? What ICE operations have occurred at the border involving any of the above claims?

> I think what you’re trying to do is set up then knock down a straw man: I never said anything about patrolling borders, and I’m well aware that CBP is the agency literally patrolling the border.

No, I assumed that your reference to "satellite photos" at the border involving ICE is probably wrong considering the border itself isn't really their domain. Whatever the ERO directorate "upholding U.S. immigration law at" the border may mean, it probably doesn't involve any spectacular incidents captured on satellite photos or video. But maybe I'm wrong and you have a source to show me otherwise.

> You picked a specific interpretation of a broad statement in a blatant attempt to make me look dumb, which goes against what HN ostensibly stands for.

Not knowing the exact specificity of what government agency performs what functions in a particular area doesn't imply stupidity; so no, I wasn't attempting to make you look dumb. I was, however, attempting to get you to consider that you could be wrong. [Edit: reading my original comment again, I will concede it was a bit of a smug snipe. Clearly too smug, considering what you found on the ICE about page.]
exactly, that sounds rad. We don't have to do all of this busywork. Post scarcity is here.
Why does it matter if it's Obama's program? I don't think it's ethical. From your article:

"Reddy said, though, that in some cases, students who transferred from the University of Farmington after realizing they didn't have classes on-site, were still arrested."

It sounds like they realized they wouldn't get to attend classes at that university and switched and still got deported.
I certainly didn't mean it to be. I think the mortgage deduction is an abomination.
Hence my usage of the phrase “billionaires, broadly”.

Nobody is denying that the Sacklers are culpable for opioids, but what about Buffett, Bezos, Brin, Jay-Z, and Jerry Seinfeld? They’re all “billionaires” too, and it would be foolish to blame them m for obesity and opioids, and in turn, the falling average life expectancy.
This sounds like an interesting premise for a sci-fi story. Does anyone know of any books with this premise of living on a hyperbolic plane?
Its interesting but I wouldn't say Graviton2 is likely to succeed.

Every ARM based PC I've seen has been disappointingly slow, which I dont really understand because phones usually are amazingly quick.

DEC Alpha, Sun Sparc, MIPS, PowerPC couldn't keep up with Intel in the recent past either.

Intel CPUs aren't cheap, but they're a fraction of the cost of a server.

All adds up to interesting innovation but not necessarily the future.
This is a great comment. A lot of what OP says is pertinent to other poorly-defined chronic diseases too.

As a community, physicians and researchers are really not capable of dealing with such conditions right now. As a result, large numbers of suffering people end up neglected and you have, for example, patients with chronic fatigue syndrome using anti-retrovirals off-label on totally spurious grounds.
Finally, this has been a long time coming. Connecting to existing RDS instances from lambda functions has been a pain for users looking to adopt serverless tech into their existing applications.
I should clarify that I sorted by fullstack frameworks with ORMs. Obviously C or C++ can be made faster.

Too late to edit now though.
Serious question -- why would you want something besides a bank loan? Because a loan at a couple of percent is way cheaper than VC, who will typically want at least 20% of your company?
I mean, now you don't. But earlier cellphones hadn't integrated the baseband yet so it was a moot point either way.

Still not seeing how Samsung followed Apple in SoC design when Apple started by using Samsung SoCs.
That was regarding office jobs, not warehouse jobs.
Sorted by full stack frameworks only: https://www.techempower.com/benchmarks/#section=data-r18&hw=...
Doug's Demo Sequel: 1969
Filing a subpoena to get information related to an active investigation is a reasonably common event. The requirement for and around the subpoena are the privacy laws.

It's perhaps not reasonable to expect any legislature to pass privacy laws that block legitimate subpoenas that are part of an investigative process.
Do they only watch broadcast TV? Even DVD's look far better on my LCD flatscreen (though the TV or player may be upscaling to 720 or 1080) than on the old CRT in my parents house (admittedly not a Trinitron)
If you're worried about being caught on camera while walking about in public, I have some really bad news for you...
> I might be wrong about plenty; which is why I asked for some more information (which I’ll note you did not provide).

As to the original request for information, while not unreasonable at all, it would take some time to competently source and present. But I will note that to me it seems obvious that the rhetoric surrounding ICE really only started in earnest after Donald Trump took office. I never observed this level of frothing criticism of that agency under the Obama administration, even though Obama's ICE, by and large, operated exactly the same way.

Do you disagree with this assessment?
AMD already doing that to Intel
Decide on a Cloud provider. Then, what services within it? Then, what client-side languages? Then, what compute system(s). Then, what architecture to use. Then, what libraries. Then what access patterns. And it goes on, and on, and on.

For too long, I got paralyzed by having too many choices – from NLP frameworks, to databases, and even CMS. The time it took me to read about all, overthink, wait, finally decide, was so long, it just is better to try a few key choices, and not overoptimize.

Obviously, it depends on whether or not you are building a side hustle or a regulated product... But generally, read enough to be aware of key options, pick a subset that makes sense (and perhaps a wildcard), implement PoCs, check them against your key metrics (latency, readability, maintainability, code to deploy times, vendor lock-in, or whatever else matters to you today and tomorrow, not three years down the line when you may perhaps hypothetically need to scale).
Thesolidom
Social Media Specialist
> and most software on Linux is distributed as source

Clearly you aren't purchasing much software. If you're one of the (majority of) large software companies that use precompiled binaries from vendors for any of the components in your systems, you're at the mercy of which architectures your vendor(s) support.
I _loved_ reading this article. I felt strangely transported back twenty or so years...
VistaVision
Winning a benchmark by a wide margin is pretty close if you have your foot in the door, which of course AMD does not.

Their success here is going to be nonlinear depending on how long they stay in the lead.
Uh, a bug disclosed from the infamous FVWM guy with a great default config.
This is amazing.

http://taviso.decsystem.org/img/screenshot.png
True, but these things take time to move mostly due to time-constrained contracts.
A static-analysis framework for GCC
> Every ARM based PC I've seen has been disappointingly slow, which I dont really understand because phones usually are amazingly quick.

Maybe it’s a latency vs throughput thing?

As far as I know, ARM is great at balancing latency and power consumption, but behind x64 in throughput. [citation needed]
There should be more sites like this that index the nonsense these mainstream publications report.
direct link to the youtube video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Odv_vNFGOX4
Synology Diskstation products include Cloud Sync, software that lets you back up to Backblaze, S3 and many others.

https://www.synology.com/en-global/knowledgebase/DSM/help/Cl...
I'm a big fan of eBPF (and Brendan Gregg), but it's not really a new type of software - the original BPF (1993) has been around for a while, not to mention other user-extensible kernel architectures such as ring-based kernels and microkernels (1960s-) and exokernels (1994).

eBPF reminds me a lot of exokernel type systems.
Not according to In the Plex. They had raised money from Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins and John Doerr was almost losing his mind on how much cash they were burning through with no business model. Finally, in an act of desperation, they copied Overture's model. The rest is history!
Software Engineering Radio - https://www.se-radio.net/

Grumpy Old Geeks - https://gog.show/
China Resurrects Great Cannon for DDoS Attacks on HK
This is an extremely silly set of conditions to attach to "remote hole". You can litigate it, and maybe win the argument, but you're just bold-facing the asterisk that was already next to that already-tortured claim.
This article doesn't mention anything about scale. I think we may be criticizing an elephant for failing to lift as many times its bodyweight as an ant.

For a back-of-envelope calculation[1][2], it looks like there were 27 CS majors out of Harvey Mudd in 2017. We can probably add in another 20 from the joint CS-Math degree. So, about 50. Berkeley, on the other hand, graduates almost a thousand students in EE or CS every year. Stanford, MIT, Georgia Tech, University of Michigan, UCSD... these schools all graduate large numbers of CS majors and compete with each other for the top students.

The accounting is tough here because the degrees at Harvey Mudd and Berkeley are different, so I may be over or under counting, but we're talking about a massive difference in scale here.

Let's take one metric - the AP Computer science test. About 27% or the people who took the AP Computer science test are women. Harvey Mudd is small enough that it could probably fill 100% of the starting class with women who got 5's on the AP Computer science test and have near perfect math grades and SAT scores. But if scores are roughly evenly distributed between men and women, eventually, you're going to have a school that has more men with 5's than women - and the only way to reach 50-50 parity will be to select women who got 4s or 3s with men who got 5s. It won't be Harvey Mudd, but that's because HM is tiny and elite. Instead, it'll be Berkeley, or Georgia Tech, or UC San Diego, or U Texas. Would Harvey Mudd be able to maintain this at 1000 CS majors, using the same methods they do now, while competing fiercely for the top students in this environment and at this scale?

[1] https://www.hmc.edu/institutional-research/institutional-sta...
[2] https://eecs.berkeley.edu/about/by-the-numbers
Sure but as long as it runs on the latest version of Windows then does it matter? And based on other posters comments they updated it in 2017 to support windows 10.
You initialize it to something. Like if you have a robot for running around in a specific building or warehouse, you can initialize the location distribution to be uniform within the warehouse.

After a few high-quality observations, the effect of the exact choice of initialization should be greatly reduced anyway.
Elders Face Increased Financial Threat from Domestic and Foreign Actors [pdf]
There are solutions that provide a seamless experience for accessing footage without storing data outside of the home.

When you host information with a third party, your only protection is your contract.
LinkedIn Chief of HR resigns over compliance issues
https://www.adafruit.com/product/3414
+
https://github.com/ccrisan/motioneye
Platforms really need to stop trying to shoot the messenger, just swallow their pride and get vulnerabilities fixed.
Right, one should run a sensitivity analysis in general, and your prior is one of the parameters you definitely check the sensitivity of.
I never knew this. I've known several developer who worked for Getty and had a positive experience. Of course that experience has nothing to do with their legal tactics.
NMA? Not-Made-in-America? Something-Medium-Aircraft?
How did you train it? Adversarial neural network? Markov chain?