There are much better (and almost viciously critical articles) written on the subject even 5 years ago [1]

There were similar predictions in 2014

>"... Lukashenko does face problems. Russia is cutting its subsidies.

Belarus struggles to sell its outdated tractors and trucks in an age of global competition. The economy is deteriorating.
...

Russia's President Putin could engineer Lukashenko's removal simply by stopping subsidised oil and gas deliveries altogether. Belarus receives roughly four times more Russian oil than it needs for domestic consumption, refines the surplus and sells it on the open market for a profit. Putin must be tempted. He loathes Lukashenko, who has cleverly played Russia off against the EU over the past 20 years, reneged on promises to Moscow, and frustrated Russian attempts to gain control of the Belarusian state gas company, pipelines and refineries.

... " [1]

These predictions did not really turn out to be true in terms of regime change or Venesuela-like horror.

There are very few countries in the world, that in the last 100 years experienced what Belorussians did:

> "..
The Nazis killed more than two million Belarusians - a quarter of the population..
" [1]

> "...
Chernobyl disaster of 1986, which contaminated a fifth of the country and millions of its people
..." [1]

In a way, it explains a bit of how people think there...
Basically, as long as it is not worst then before -- than we are ok. And one can see from above, the 'before' was really bad...

Belorussians are not going to revolt,
if there is a forced change in leadership, the transition will not be perfectly peaceful, but will not be bloody, And it will only happen to a person that Putin is ok with.

Russian is pretty much 'the language' in that country, and really the affinity to Russia goes far beyond the language.
In way of political views/desire to change -- Belorussian's are much milder than Russians'.

Comparing Belarus to Estonia or Lithuania, in terms of 'what-would-happen', I think are wrong. Those republics received a lot of help from the West, and are culturally (including language) were much more aligned with Finland/Norway.

Belarus would more likely compare to a land-locked countries like Armenia or Albania.

Many who did not like the regime, immigrated to Germany.
Lukashenko is not holding anybody from leaving.

Law enforcement in Belarus is one of the highest paid government-paid jobs. So state apparatus used to monitor opposition (but unlike in US, they do not need to cheat FISA courts, those things are already 'built-in')
Especially, when it comes to foreign-sponsored opposition

"....

Organisers of the protest, linked to George Soros, called the march “Freedom Day”, evoking the independent Belarus that lasted just six months after the First World War, in 1918. They tried to march down one of the major streets in Minsk, but were blocked by police who arrested them, along with journalists covering the protest, Alexander Ponomarev told AP news agency.

..." [2]

In terms how Belarus is positioning itself in the worlds import/export markets

It is same way, as Politicians use their family members and charity foundations to do money loundring and bribes....
Basically a mechanism to avoid sanctions and laws...

https://belsat.eu/en/news/mensk-patlumachyu-rost-ekspartu-be...
>"...
The fact that Belarus is supplying the Russian market with the enormous amount of exotic tropical fruits cannot but sparked a massive public outcry. Although the fruit isn’t grown in the Eastern European country, the export of kiwis went up by 151%.

At the same time, the ban imposed by Russia clearly prohibits re-export, and that is exactly what Belarus is suspected of by Moscow.

The Belarusian Prime Minister claims that the fruits supplied should not be affected by sanctions.

..."

Same goes, probably for military equipment exports...

[1]
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/belarus-dictatorship-a...

[2] http://freewestmedia.com/2017/03/26/another-soros-colour-rev...