skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
There's no way climate change can wipe out the entirety of humanity and make the earth uninhabitable, especially in the next 15 years. Are greenhouse gases supposed to turn Earth into Venus in 15 years? That's the only way I see that it can truly become "uninhabitable", and I don't see how that can happen.

Even then, a small percentage can always survive in closed-loop habitats shielded from the outside world, ala Biosphere 2.0.
Odds are slim that such a plague would kill every last person, even if everyone were to become infected.
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This has been debated many times. Even the DoD strategic planning has concluded that if a certain % of the population would take up arms, the army would lose an insurgency war (especially if the opposing side has the support of the people).

Also have to factor in the massive defections of trained soldiers and officers from the military. The service members I know are not loyal to a person or group, they are loyal to the idea of the republic.
A First-Principles Approach to Growth
Get involved in public-private partnerships, like economic development councils or your housing authority. It takes some time to understand how the money flows and who really has power, but they do a lot of para-government work and have a lot of influence. You would probably start on a side committee, not the full board, but they’d be happy to have you.

The public comment period at city council meetings is not where change happens, sadly. It should be taken more seriously by both officials and the public.
15 years is probably too extreme for even the most pessimistic climate change scenarios where you get to the point of boiling the oceans.

However, these kids will be dealing with the consequences of extreme climate change in their lifetimes. Lots of people are going to die. Some societies will collapse. It's not going to be easy and having the world leaders today range from offering emotional support and no effective policy decisions to outright hostile to the entire concept of climate change is not helpful.
Faxes, like in US health care. With staff to handle it at the endpoints.
They will understand human nature if they are bright enough, and live the rest of the life with healthy skepticism.
Is there a guide somewhere on how to set this up as a Pageant replacement for git purposes?
Show HN: Human Readable Magazine Is on Kickstarter
You act as if the sides are equal if proven wrong. If the climate alarmists are proven wrong but their policies acted on we will have moved beyond the convenience of fossil fuels. We will have made a society for our children that doesn't pollute as much. Even if CO2 is harmless in the sense that it does not warm the atmosphere it and the cofactors with it do cause a lot of health related harms. Smog isn't good for anyone. If the climate deniers are proven wrong we hurt our habitat and our children might not be able to fix our wrongs.
I think the problem is that social media usage is on a continuum, and you can find yourself at a local maximum that is well below your global maximum. For example, if you check FB once a day, then maybe you would be somewhat happier if you increased to 2x or 3x daily. But if you decreased your usage to once weekly, then you'd actually be much happier. The problem is that you'd have to go through the "valley" of once every 3 days and once very 5 days before you get to once a week. There's also the fact that FB sets up the bday posting stuff to encourage you to log on every day.

I wish there were ways to distinguish between periodically checking FB and essentially being addicted to it (several times daily use). Perhaps we could employ language like "I use FB" versus "FB uses me". Only half-joking...
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My immediate family (brother, some nieces) all share a nice What's App group. Way more rewarding when someone posts something to that than FB feed. Also, have various groups with former co-workers, etc. I've replaced bland, meaningless feeds, with small targeted groups. And it couldn't be more perfect.
The worst IPCC predictions on arctic ice melting are totally incorrect.

https://static.skepticalscience.com/graphics/sea_ice_predict...

Therefore the effect of climate change could be far greater than their worst predictions.
No way would the dictator win. The US military relies on a huge amount of logistics. Fighting happening on US soil would severely undermine that. You can't exactly bomb your own cities with B-52s, because that's where the bombs are made. The US military would draw maybe a few million people - the rest of the populace would still be over 300 million people with a gun for every single person. Furthermore, it's virtually impossible for the military not to split under a dictator that fights their own people.
The two major problems with the discussion on climate change:

1.) Right-leaning, free-market, anti-authoritarian types need to understand that climate change is a negative third party externality, and there isn't a free market economist that wouldn't agree that the state has a role to play in ameliorating that. Focus on the strategies you think are best suited for that role, such as carbon taxes.

2.) Left-leaning climate advocates need to realistically prioritize objectives according to their tenability and impact. Airplanes contribute 2% of greenhouse emissions, how about we don't start there. Energy production constitutes by far the largest impact, how about we focus energy there, and not to beat a dead horse, but also seriously advocate on behalf of nuclear. They also forget that the other half of the equation, carbon capture, is almost unilaterally popular. Focusing efforts on where the most leeway can be achieved is a much better solution, particularly since carbon capture is capable of handling carbon emissions of states unwilling to regulate their own outputs.

They also need to cool it with the catastrophizing. It is a bad strategy. All the opposition has to do is point out how incredibly off-base the predictions were in an An Inconvenient Truth, and they're done. Accurately identify where the feedback loops are that cause enormous leaps forward, and focus on those precise thresholds. Near linear progress in the way we've seen it creeping does not scare people, but that doesn't mean that we can just be wildly inaccurate with the predictions in order to scare people in to action.

Lastly, don't shoehorn in other political policies alongside climate propositions. Green New Deal, for example, is first and foremost a bundle of socialist policies using climate activism as a vehicle. If this is truly the greatest threat to humanity, decouple it from adjacent political policy.
Everyone has probably always thought this way... then they live for 15 years and see that nothing much has changed.
I do think that 'adulthood' is hitting people harder and harder. Our kid phase is kiddier and kiddier, and when your parents no longer take care of you, and you're staring at working for 20-40 years until you can experience that endless summer vacation (retirement), you could feel desperate.
Yep, we can and we will work to push an update down the road that shows it per day to break it down further.

Good q! Mostly what we have seen is that if you have a lot of short meetings that break apart your day it really hurts deep work as you are constantly trying to get back into a flow state.
>you'll be fighting your neighbor, because your neighbor thinks you're a fucking dumbass who he'd rather kill than reason with, because of how little you've respected honest discourse and conversation over a long period of time.

I normally wouldn't respond to a post like this, but if you are thinking about hurting people that you disagree with, please seek out some help. This sentence honestly reads like a warning flag to me for someone who has reached their limit for debating peacefully with others.
Sounds like Adam is in for a rough couple of years with lawsuits, and potential fraud charges...
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Climate what now? /s

For real though I swear half of hacker news must work in oil and gas.
I think I remember a similar statistic about most people during the cold war believing humanity would soon be extinct but I can't find anything about it.
Interesting! I had no idea Terminus has a desktop version. It's really wonderful on mobile devices... has saved my ass a couple of times.
I largely agree with you.

My current manager where I work is pretty cool. We get along pretty well, and I don't mind working for them. However, I think my manager's manager is...umm, well, let's just say "not very good at their job", fairly close to the "John" in this story.

If my current manager quit or was fired or died, and I had to work for their manager, I probably would quit before I learned to effectively work with "John"; the job market is pretty good for engineers right now, why the hell not?
> there should be limits to tolerance, and those limits are defined by harming other people, or advocating their harm

Here's the problem point: what do you mean by "advocating"? I'm all for not tolerating people who issue explicit calls to violence, but once you extend this to advocating or even talking about things that can be used by others to justify calls to violence, and attempt to remove that person, I think we should stop tolerating you because the paradox of tolerance applies recursively: the moment you go overboard with not tolerating the intolerant and start claiming collateral damage, it is you who's actively intolerant and needs to be removed to safeguard the society.

I don't know much about Yarvin beyond what I picked up here and over at SSC, but I don't recall him ever advocating actual, explicit harm to anyone. Being wrong about something does not cross the "intolerance" line if it's not followed by advocating hurting people (or excluding them from society).
GPS is also used heavily in banking and fiancee for timing purposes, so any storm big enough to jam the network could essentially halt the entire economy for however long the storm lasts. The lucky thing though is that the satellites themselves are hardened against storms, so restoring service would be as "simple" as resynchronizing the entire constellation versus launching a new one
MobaXterm is not free/open source software. This may or may not be relevant to you of course.
A podcast, think it was Stuff to Blow Your Mind, did a podcast on the Guinea Worm and talked about this at length. The worm is wildly infectious. Every incident requires immediate deployment of teams of people to control it or it explodes with re-infections. There are wild populations of the worm still, which are the main source of ongoing infections.

The 28 cases doesn't indicate low importance, it indicates those are enough to re-seed the worm if huge areas if not vigorously acted on, every time they see a new case.

I'm surely getting some details wrong, but it sounds like zero for several years has to be the goal, or it'll rebound swiftly.
This seems like an ad. Title reads like one and link just points to homepage. This is the poster's only submission.

cc dang
Ah, ok. I got the impression there was something clever about it being a red pill specifically.
I would say the biggest thing is the emphasis on public works. Wherever I went I was awed by the extent of things that were built just for the public. In the city where I lived there they built a new fancy bridge[0], and a massive park with an island and an art center[1], all for public use, and the city hosts massive public celebrations in these kinds of parks with extensive art installations, music performances etc.

The quality of the high speed rail system barely needs mention, and while the hospital system has some pretty glaring faults the cost of care was low and it was easy and affordable to get medical care. Think of this: when I got an X-ray in China I payed upfront and the radiologist _gave me the x-ray_ so I could bring it to more than one doctor if I wanted a second opinion. The transparency there was refreshing.

Again, there are plenty of brutal negatives, but I just want to show that there are some good things that don't get press.

[0] https://www.treehugger.com/infrastructure/lucky-knot-bridge-...

[1] https://www.dezeen.com/2019/05/03/zaha-hadid-architects-chan...
Given that this is the second reply of its class, sounds like some of y'all have sketchier local councils than I do.

Perhaps this disenfranchisement is more of a regional issue.
I find this headline to be misleading. I'm sure humanity could be wiped out within 15 years. There is some non-zero chance that a gamma-ray burst in the Milky Way wipes out life on Earth. But really these people are saying it is likely.

Over the next 10-15 years, 29% of all voters believe it is at least somewhat likely that the earth will become uninhabitable and humanity will be wiped out.

I don't think 29% of voters actually believe this. I think that nowadays, people frequently answer polls according to the emotional stance they would like to support, rather than the side of it they view to be factually correct.
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An ex Netflix person, who has since moved to Amazon, spoke at a client place three weeks ago. He casually mentioned things such as "we forgive the first time, and we fire the second time". From how he spoke, we felt that this may be the norm in Silicon Valley and related places.

I have much respect for what he has achieved, so I didn't interrupt to question such a fear-inducing mindset.
I was reading an interview with Naomi Klein not long ago on the subject of "eco anxiety" amongst the young, and had a funny thought: Her work reminded me of the pre-reformation Catholic church.

The practice of selling indulgences was the target of Martin Luther's theses, that is the church would preach Original Sin, fire-and-brimstone, etc, the offer convenient ways to purchase your way out of this terribleness. Authors like her preach a doomsday fire-and-brimstone of their own and very conveniently offer absolution by buying her books, implementing her views as laws (see Leap Manifesto in Canada) etc.

I mean, I'm a pretty firm believer in taking a strong course towards a carbon-free future, but I don't think whipping up such a fear frenzy will turn out well.
Those traded on exchanges.
Yes, that one was, and I think I would probably have conformed too! I participated in an exercise once designed, through rhyme, to get an entire room to say the wrong answer to a basic math problem. I knew I was saying the wrong thing as it was happening, but I couldn’t stop myself. It’s just that there is a difference between that and finding oneself taking a bullet, committing murder, etc.
We are living in very scary times.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/threat-limit-capital-flows-ch...
Maybe it's a good thing. Compared to earlier generation's ignorance or apathy I'd rather people think we need to fix things sooner than later.
Well, if we want to go deep into her body of research we can. She's pro-immunization, but doesn't believe vaccines as we know them are an effective way to do so. The current structure involves harming the body in order to create immunity, and therefore, if no benefit is derived, violates the Hippocratic oath.

I get frustrated with her sometimes, because her ideas are incredibly rational and coherent, but she doesn't understand presentation or how to sell an idea.

I would recommend her book if you want to gain an understanding of the rationalist arguments against modern vaccination:

https://www.amazon.com/Dissolving-Illusions-Disease-Vaccines...

It's controversial thought, but it is enlightening, especially if you want to understand why some "otherwise" smart people believe this nonsense
While I understand your sentiment, I just don't think connecting with most people by phone or in person is actually feasible. I keep direct text groups open to my immediate family members and closest friends, but I rarely text my sister-in-laws, and I almost never directly contact my cousins, aunts, or uncles. It just doesn't make sense to say "why not call them" as a counter-argument when we don't have that kind of relationship. As for sending a letter... most of us stopped doing that in the 1990s unless you were in jail or sending banking statements.

I've noticed the most active commenters on my Facebook stuff these days are all family members, so I have a ton of extended family that stays aware of what I'm doing through that. And of my ~850 connections on Facebook, I could probably delete 80% of those and it would be a more realistic picture of either 1) family or 2) people I actually know and have talked to in the last 3-5 years.
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Now if they only could get rid of the Byte Order Mark in CSV files created in Excel or Powershell...