skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
"The black plague" may not, "a black plague" may.

In other words, Y. pestis might still be treatable with modern antibiotics and is well controlled with modern sanitization.

But if MERS-CoV and influenza got together, or NDM-1 genes horizontally transferred to group A strep, you could end up with a highly contagious and highly fulminant threat.
Your worldview is incredibly distorted my friend. OP is trying to bridge the divide.
And the high-schoolers will be angry at them for not understanding that the end is nigh and will organize weekly demonstrations, etc
> How do you exterminate 7 billion people spread over ~57 million square miles of land?

I mean, just make the earth uninhabitable for humans. There are a few ways to accomplish this; even excluding climate change, nuclear weapons were and continue to be one such specter as the article alludes to.

Sure, some people will continue to eke out an existence even then, but it's quite easy to imagine humanity perishing over the course of a few generations after an event like that.

Also, when people say things like "humanity being wiped out" they usually don't literally mean "extinction of homo sapiens". They usually mean "quality of life significantly degraded" such that life resembles a Mad Max movie more than what we know today.
My first question would be if the Chinese hacker is American looking or if he is named Boejing Wang or something like that.

Jokes aside there are a huge number of mobile devices with saved credentials for exclusive business VPN access and a lot of businesses restrict access to resources based on the source of requests, which can be the corporate network of a supplier. This is often done to enable some forms of electronic data interchange. Putting these services in another network would probably have helped.

It would be my guess that the hacker gained access through a privileged network with stolen VPN credentials. There would be countless ways to achieve that.

Perhaps pickpockets should just sell the stolen phones to relevant companies.
Makes me wonder if it'd be simpler to gain this stuff the old-fashioned spy way: bribe or blackmail someone working in one of those supplier companies.

If Pierre in Toulouse is desperate to hide his affair with the Chinese girl he met a week ago in the bar...
You don't have to kill every last person in order to kill 'humanity'
It's interesting to consider it benevolent from his perspective, since he called German financial institutions malevolent when it played out very similar in Greece. Except geopolitical influence expansion was not a main goal.

Maybe he said something like "it looks like benevolent, because they use finance instead of guns" or that compared to using military force it's relatively benevolent, but after watching some of his talks, I highly doubt he'd call it a generous ethical policy.
Amazon is a profit driven business beholden to investors. Is this something that is not fully understood by people in general?
In fifteen years, there will be a fresh generation of young folks who have no memory of this failed doomsday prediction to indoctrinate.
I care if it's legal or not. But hiring people as full employees requires certain legal structures/organizations to be in place in a location. There are costs associated with setting up those structures. This often doesn't make sense if there's only one person in a country or other such political entity.

Small companies do indeed not expand geographically for this reason--or hire through a partner or other entity that is already established there.
What happened is a culture of fear around climate change that started with the Al Gore movie. That generation is being told if we don't act immediately you won't have a future.

What ends up happening is in 15 years nothing happens and these people get more jaded.
The place you want should have strong but clearly defined moderation that allows one to voice unpopular opinions and only banning the low-effort spam and actual advocacy of harming people. The phenomenon GP described (which I remember 'Eliezer likened to evaporative cooling) relates more to the level of discussion than to the topic itself.
Part of my point is that this is being done by the CCP. If you want to say the CCP doesn't have ethics that's a different argument than "China doesn't have ethics", and I don't think that's too pedantic too point out.
Your issue with carbon taxes is misplaced. It's very easy to come up with a bi-partisan approach where low-middle income people are refunded for their gasoline/heating carbon tax, and thus have a revenue-neutral carbon tax. This could be reduced sales tax, decrease in income tax for lower brackets, or straight rebates to everyone each year.

There's actually some evidence that this revenue-neutral approach is less palatable to those on the US political left, though (WA's failed carbon tax ballot initiative). It may be more attractive to those on the left to use revenues from carbon taxation to provide climate-equity solutions, like higher paying green-tech jobs in low-income areas, cheaper electricity for those in low income communities, climate resiliency, buyback programs for older/inefficient cars, subsidized EVs and public transport, etc.

Personally, I'm for either approach, as long as it gets done quickly.
Among the many effects of climate change, 700 million people live in areas that will become almost uninhabitable due to rising sea level and flooding at current emission rates. Do you seriously think that people adapting by speaking a different language is as bad as that?
> Even trying to devise a way to guarantee that humans go extinct seems like an almost impossible thought exercise.

I personally don’t think it will happen, but it’s not exactly hard to think of possible ELEs given how we’re messing with the atmosphere. Another one of these [1] and we’re toast.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxidation_Event
I think its funny how "A majority believes in something" is enough to justify an opinion.
Most of those "doom and gloom" predictions never came true because of tireless work by people to prevent it from happening. For example, the amount of effort that went into making AIDS more treatable is astronomical.

See also: Ozone holes, Y2K, etc.
I don't think we can let the airlines off, remember you don't just fly to a place and then immediately for back. When taking about the 2% that airlines contribute we should also talk about the number that people that took airlines contribute to Greenhouse emissions while they are on their vacation or business trip. Right?
China is what you get when you have a one party system.
The country lives and dies for the party. Individual freedom is suppressed. Everyone must tow the party line.
China is most certainly a concern for those of us that love freedom.
Czechia specifically is not to be underestimated. Czechia has a world class engineering tradition and is generally a fairly well-run country. So "even Czechia" doesn't make much sense to say.
Hey, thanks por posting this and adding to the discussion. You raise some points that I feel are very important.
>What if someone can't?

Then you're very much screwed and you have my pity.

>What if they are both equally bad?

It's not about 'badness', your additional personalities are expedient and exist only to get you where you need to be, you will indeed make mistakes cultivating them but as long as you're concentrating on maintaining them you can't let too much slip and those personalities will develop over time.
Punk's original ethos was "I don't like my parents' music and culture and I don't know how to play an instrument but I still wanna express myself". Tons of crap falls into that category, music that doesn't even classify itself as punk.

I find it almost impossible to classify bands as a single specific genre. They're almost always in a spectrum of multiple genres. You can try to say "X band is more punk than Y band", or "X band is more Y genre than Z genre", but to say "Agnostic Front is punk" would be problematic; Is it hardcore punk? Is it just plain hardcore? Crossover thrash? Who cares? It is more punk than Adelle, though.
To add to (2), stop brain washing kids to advocate their views: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2019/sep/23/gr...

It was quite sad to watch the above kid without a well formed world view burst into tears over stolen childhoods while million of childhoods are taken away every year due to lack of opportunities (including electricity of any kind) in developing countries.
But in the case of a civil war the supply lines themselves are under threat at all times. It's even worse than that, because military action itself will likely harm their own supply lines, because it's the populace that creates those supplies. If you're fighting against the populace, then you're not getting supplies from them.
The myth of the teacher pay gap?
If this helps with handling the climate emergency I am okay with that.

A lot of people believe a lot of things some serious some stupid. I don't see why we should be concerned if people believe that a real problem is, in fact, real.
The nearest humanity has got to a closed-loop habitat, that works on an ongoing basis, were the Soviets in the seventies during their lunar programme. We are far away from one that's viable.

It can be the new fusion: "ready in twenty years"... indefinitely.
> they will be easy to convince that this was ... chicken little screaming that the sky is falling.

But that's exactly what's going on. Climate change is a serious issue but the climate change elite have decided that the rest of us are too dumb to understand and react to what's really going on. Instead the working plan is to scare the shit out of everyone with click bait hoping to elicit some kind of response. Instead this promotes disbelief and complacency.
The centennial of America’s greatest sports scandal
No, asking companies to consider moral obligations under penalty of law is what I think is wrong. The law exists to codify morality. If this is a moral concern, it should be against the law. We cannot expect disparate entities around the world, staffed by people with disparate values, to all magically think like an Anglophone Hacker News-type. In order to make expectations clear, morality that requires this level of behavioral modification ought to be law. In this regard, it has been turned into law, and whatever authorities we have have decided that this behavior is not illegal. Thus we conclude that the international maritime commission, which purportedly represents the will of the democratic countries of which it consists, does not believe this is immoral.
"Patriotism is when love of your own people comes first; nationalism, when hate for people other than your own comes first." --Charles de Gaulle
My big worry with crypto is as soon as it loses legitimacy or security like via a large hack or hijacked transfer the trust is shot and the value is gone. It may rebuild trust over time, but it could also keep falling as it goes out of use or hodlers see it as a losing investment vs real world assets and cash out.

If the USD has $1TT stolen or an anti-counterfeit measure is bypassed, the US government could step in and support use of the dollar with some guarantee or security advancement like better counterfeiting protections or freezing stolen assets then (as bad as it is often seen) printing replacement bills or something. Some of this is already ongoing with the Mint developing anti-counterfeit measures for each new bill released.

Crypto can't do that, it's just a volatile stock like commodity with no underwritten assets or real world backing. There's no centralized backer that can prop it up in crisis. That's risky.
I stopped posting happy birthday's on FB because it's always someone's birthday. Occasionally I will wish a close friend a happy birthday, but usually through text message. It's also annoying on my birthday when all these people I barely know come out of the woodwork to comment. I usually ignore FB that day, then reply to all with a thank you the day after.
Very few managers in large companies can throw around threats like that, and the ones who can realize it just makes them look unhinged like the Queen of Hearts in “Alice in Wonderland.”

Incidentally, a couple of years ago, I was a contractor for Amazon for a very short time. One thing that stood out was that customers would email Bezos directly, or problems would bubble up to him in some other way, and he would respond by forwarding the email to an appropriate email list. Bezos’s email would be just a question mark, but he always got a fast and complete reply. Once people knew he was paying attention, they would do anything to resolve the problem. He didn’t need to formulate an actual question, or even a general “what’s this about?”, just a literal question mark would do the trick.
Full disclosure: this is a friend's startup. Not intended to be an advert. We've worked together on computer vision problems in the past, and there is some serious tech under the hood here. Happy to change the title if you have a better suggestion.
Oh, I know that. By all means, run the experiments and do the tests. I’m just saying the results here are entirely unsurprising given we’re talking about animals that are effectively 99.5% the same as us at a genetic level.
This is why ICLR will be held in Ethiopia next year. It's a known problem in the ML research community.
Blaming the elderly here seems misguided to me.

I suspect the lifestyle of an average 20-year-old today puts much more burden on the environment/climate than the lifestyle of their parents in their twenties.

ADD: The amount of time each spends _talking_ about climate change is a different matter of course.
Unless you are stuck on an old version of Windows (or Win Server). I am using the Win port of OpenSSH for exactly this reason.
You are right. Specifically, the question was:

> ENV17: Within the next 10-15 years, how likely is that the earth will become uninhabitable and humanity will be wiped out?

The other questions were directly about climate change, so presumably that framing had an effect. But on that short a time span, I think nuclear warefare has a more likely (though distant) chance of wiping out humanity than climate change (and I'm no climate change denier), and I could imagine some of the respondents reasoning similarly.
This is anecdotal scaremongering. There is no correlation between vaccines and any of the side-effects you've claimed. This has been debunked repeatedly. Autism, seizures, and allergies are often associated with vaccines because they are not visible birth defects, but are instead discovered.
I've never used social media and I sometimes wonder what other people think when they ask me what my account name is and I tell them I don't have one. They've never seemed to care that I don't have an account. What goes through your head when someone tells you that they don't have a social media account?
The paper tests this hypothesis and finds that there's probably a causal effect:

"...these results demonstrate that the screening effect may have played a role, but it appears insufficient to entirely account for the observed difference between near misses and narrow wins."
Human beings haven't relied on "the food chain" for thousands of years, but it's certainly true that climate change will have a big impact on agriculture, the recent IPCC report on land covers the topic in some depth[1]. Models of runaway change don't suggest humans would be wiped out (though I wouldn't want to live near a coastline...[2]), especially not within 15 years.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Climate_Chan...

2: https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252
That is absolutely a false equivalency. I don't think you'll find any evidence that RMS believes people shouldn't be able to _discuss_ selling propriety software, or disagree with free software, or anything else.
I find the strength of your argument unconvincing. It's possible that is how it will play out, but it's possible it will also play out differently. My expectation is that uncertainty is part of the second amendment calculus.
>>>There is absolutely no such thing as the "American spirit of defending yourself from tyranny", whoever told you that sold you a lie.

"The means of defense against a foreign danger historically have become the instruments of tyranny at home."
—James Madison[1]

"When the people fear the government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty."
—Thomas Jefferson[1]

"What country before ever existed a century and half without a rebellion? And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure."
-Thomas Jefferson[2]

[1]https://theshalafi.blogspot.com/2010/07/few-quotes-by-foundi...

[2]https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Second_Amendment_to_the_United...
The video is missing the stretching the dough part, which IMO is the most time consuming part. Spreading the sauce / cheese and putting toppings is definitely the "easy" part of the job in my experience.

If I had infinite time to invent my ideal automatic pizza machine... I'd personally like to see the full high-quality bread cycle done on the dough. That is: ~1 hour for the bread to rise, punching down the dough, stretch the dough out onto its final form, ~1-hour for proofing the dough (maybe 20 minutes at 90F, since yeast reacts faster at that temperature), and THEN automatically spreading cheese on it.

Most of this time is just waiting by the way. But maybe some kind of "jukebox" design where a robot can work on a Pizza, automatically put it on a shelf somewhere (for the ~1 hour rise / proofing steps) and come back to it automatically would be great.

At least, when I manually make pizza, getting high-quality bread dough techniques on the pizza dough makes a difference in texture (chewiness and "evenness" of internal air bubbles).

A lot of Pizza shops don't care about the consistency of the dough however. They just pull the dough out of the frige and immediately make a pizza on it without the punchdown or proofing steps. And you can tell because of the "air bubbles" that often grow huge and break the consistency of the dough.

------------

EDIT: What is going on here, is that yeast is a living organism. Pull that dough out of storage, and the different yeast will reactivate at different times. The edges probably will have more active yeast, as it warms up faster).

When the dough enters the oven, it rises to ~110F or so first. The yeast highly accelerates and starts to produce carbon dioxide as it eats the sugars. But the "pockets" of highly-active yeast will make more CO2 than other areas of the dough.

Of course, the yeast dies by ~160F and the "puffiness" of the bread is then solidified by the heat of the oven.

That's why you punch down dough: so that all the (reactivated) yeast creates CO2 bubbles at an even rate across the dough.

------------

In practice, the Pizza is going to be limited by the speed + space of your Oven. I'm not sure if people need "faster" low quality pizzas, but improving the automation to create higher-quality pizzas should be the focus.
If you read through the tech specs everything is developed in house probably using some form of SLAM using the 6 cams - appears to run on TX2 chip
I'm not sure it's a matter of emotional stance. It could just be that many people view the opportunity to answer a poll as a means to an end, and don't feel any obligation to be truthful.

In that case for some proportion of the respondents the poll question is equivalent to "would you like to take the opportunity to ask people to take climate change more seriously?".

(This is probably particularly true in cases where the response option includes some vague undefined term like "somewhat likely", so that it's hard for selecting that option to be an outright lie.)
I started a YIMBY group a few years back, and I've met and talked with pretty much everyone on our city council at this point, as well as our state representative (who voted for HB 2001!).

This is a town of around 100K.
this is an outrage: there are only 18,514 startup ideas in there.
Understood, but you also have to remember you can't control how your friends communicate. I'd be perfectly fine communicating only via iMessage, but most of my friends have social media accounts and when I quit FB/Instagram and stopped liking their posts, I had less presence in their lives. Think about that - social networks are almost like an Internet schoolyard; just upvoting something shows presence and lets everyone else know that you're in the room.
Sure, but not enough. There would still be a substantial number of transformers exploding. As I understand it there aren't nearly enough backups waiting around to replace them
> Right-leaning, free-market, anti-authoritarian

Maybe the right-leaning types correctly realize that the left-leaning types can't take "yes" for an answer, and that addressing climate change is not an end in itself, but a means for rehabilitating socialism:
https://peoplesclimate.org/platform/.

> Every new job created to address the climate crisis must be unionized or have the right to unionize without interference and pay a family-sustaining wage.

If they agree to carbon taxes, is that it? Or does the battlefront just move to things like this: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/aocs-top-aide-admits-green-...

> “Do you guys think of it as a climate thing?” Chakrabarti then asked. “Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.”

Because this is a real, and serious risk. The defeat of socialism as a competitor to market capitalism in the late 1980s has seen the greatest improvement in the plight of the world's most vulnerable people in the history of the world. Places like Bangladesh, my home country, have enjoyed 5-7% GDP growth annually for three decades. (Polls show Bangladesh second only to Vietnam in support for the free market.)

If it was just a matter of carbon taxes, or investing the IPCC-recommended 2.5% of GDP on mitigation efforts, I'd wholeheartedly agree with you. But if it's carbon taxes as a first step toward radical transformation of the economy--toward ideas that have been tried and failed--then no thank you.
That's absurd. People have been living in harsh conditions (120°F desert weather, <32°F freezing temps for big chunks of the year) for millennia and likely hundreds of thousands of years with none of the technology we currently enjoy. There are more people now than ever before. I can't even see an all out nuclear war combined worth +6°C average temperature increase leading to extinction. Some people somewhere will survive. Maybe many or even most might die in such a scenario but to wipe out humanity, I don't think that possibility currently exists.
I used to sell products on Amazon a decade ago and they were still pulling the same tricks.

I would sell products that had absolutely no listings in for months (I was the first one). Within a week or two, a listing would popup for Amazon at a cheaper cost and I would instantly lose sales...until they were gone for good.

I also still can't figure out why I was banned forever (I still can't create a seller account to this day and nobody at Amazon will help me) because of one customer complaint (I had 100% feedback before this). Yet, there are counterfeiters from China and India that continue to sell their goods on Amazon with impunity.

It's also pretty scary that as a seller, Amazon can and just use your selling data to compete against you and most likely always get a cheaper rate than you because they have deeper pockets.

Selling on Amazon may bring you some temporary cash, but will destroy your business in the long-run.
Cool! Just by putting "0." in front of your version number, you're magically not liable anymore!
Why not just post to a text file if you really don't care?