skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> if you model the stock market as a machine that simply gives random payouts drawn from some distribution, what is the probability that a set of 1,551 groups of 300 random draws from that distribution would contain at least one set that averages more than $310? If the paper ran such a model, I didn't see it.

The abstract says the trader who made $310/day had a standard deviation of $2560 (presumably per day). Over 300 samples, that's a standard deviation of 2560/sqrt(300) or $150/day. So if he really had a breakeven strategy and got lucky, he was 2 standard deviations from the mean, or in the top 2.5%, and you'd expect 40 other traders to have done just as well, and it would be vanishingly unlikely that nobody else did.

Not quite what you were asking, but I don't think there's enough information at least in the abstract to answer your question. The payout distribution will be largely dependent on the size of the traders' positions and riskiness of their strategies.
Show HN: A Go news aggregator Android app
>The US public does not want this

I don't think this is true. I think what the US public doesn't want is the higher taxes to pay for it. We are already swimming in debt and wages haven't kept up with inflation. My daughter is making exactly the same wages now that I made when I was her age 25 years ago, in comparable jobs.
This right here is what I believe. He isn't there out of choice, he is there out of a lack of options.
I find it hard to believe we would reach 50 billion people within the next millennium without new and incredible resource extraction technologies that would make current food shortage problems look like a piece of cake.
That article says the average population density of cities is ~1,500 per square mile. NYC has a population density of ~27,000 people per square mile. There's a huge gap in the viability of foregoing a car between cities of those densities. A large portion of the US's cities are a LONG way from being able to go car-free.
I also think it's mostly meant to be a deterrent. When I had BofA, any time I got overdraft I just called and they would take it off, usually without an explanation.
In fairness to Snowden, he didn't intend to stay in Russia; his fate was sealed when the US revoked his passport.[1][2] I can't imagine Snowden being much of a fan of Russia given a) what he probably knew during his time working at the NSA and b) actually living there.

EDIT: formatting

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-23318475

[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-security-passport/u-s...
The 2nd sub was created due to the primary sub pushing left-wing politics during the elections and just kept going farther left with approved/trending posts. Then the 2nd sub became right reactionary and pushed all the news the main sub would exclude due to leftist politics, pissing off the people who fled the primary sub due to politics. The posters are a small subset of the readers, if you think only 10 posters are conservative in one of the largest cities in the US, you are mistaken. The sub says Seattle Metro area which includes many conservative cities in King County.

Maybe when people read /r/seattle they dont want to read about more lawsuits the local government and state government have against conservatives, gun owners and business owners. The sub has become a damn PR sub for left wing politics. I read more Seattle based tech news on HN now. HN seems to at least balanced compared to reddit. (mostly, ymmv)
And now the people who were hired previously aren't going to have a job.

I hope that's what you wanted.
Since this is sort of my beat:

If this ever happens to you, immediately call bank, say “Electronic transaction posted in error.”, specifically identify the transaction, and ask what address the bank takes Regulation E written complaints at. If the CSR doesn’t know that answer, their supervisor does, or in the alternative FedEx HQ addressed to chief counsel or head of compliance. The letter just needs to state transaction details, date you first called them, and your desired action (“Credit me back $X.”), but it’s marginally more effective to say Regulation E in it since that will put the fear of God into whomever opens it.

You’ll get the money back.
Show HN: Kubernetes and Python
HN desperately needs a ban on NYT, Atlantic, and Guardian articles.

They are mostly political opinion pieces that provide no insight and the discussion around them is always the same: one political camp bitching about the government and corporations.
Could be the child doesn't trust the parents. Could be other factors like maybe something changed in the parent-child relationship that the parent didn't notice. There's always counseling.
Thanks, seeing just the HN title, I'd known who'd produced the video, and wanted to share their farewell.

I've also written on that myself:

https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/7hgb24/brillia...
There was a video interview with the founder where he explained pretty much how they do it. The employ a lot of bright PhD maths/physics types, get them to come up with all the algorithmic strategies they can think of, run tests with historic data and live trading to see which ones work and then scale up those.

There isn't one smart guy or one great strategy - there are dozens of smart guys and loads of strategies and they can win because they outsmart the city types.
It seems the FBI in the NY Albany office is now looking into this.

https://twitter.com/FBIAlbany/status/1171827423333289985
Somebody like WorkforceLogic, ManPower or other temp agency would just handle employment, background verification, compliance and 1099s, they're unlikely to start building apps around their own networks.
So you downvoted _my_ experience? -Time and again? On NH? Because my experience is "wrong"? Oh. I see.

I wish had a reply for that but I can't even get my head wrapped around the irony and the absurdity.
My own approach is to treat the phone as a tool, not as a social media consumption gadget. GPS, quick point-and-shoot camera, weather apps, music player - those are my main uses. Spending all day with my face buried in my phone? No thank you.
> One thing I’ve always wanted to do but never do is clean up my Facebook friend list so it’s only the people I care about. For what it’s worth Facebook seems to do a decent job of filtering it. But one day I’ll do it right.

This is what made the biggest difference for me. Last year, I deleted both my Facebook and Instagram accounts for about 4 months. I found that I didn't miss my Facebook at all. My Instagram had been a decent way of staying in touch with a group of friends and family. I ended up creating an Instagram account again, but now that I was starting from scratch again, I was pretty mindful of who I followed. At this point I have about 40 people I follow, all of whom are people I know quite well and aren't particularly prolific posters. This is in comparison to the 200 or so I had amassed through college and beyond. I find that I don't even use Instagram for an average of 5 minutes per day, as thats about as long as it takes to actually see everything new since the day before.

Its much more of a tool for informally keeping up with a handful of people I wouldn't otherwise than the time-sucking, attention-hijacking bloat of weak and non-existent relationships that it had become. And it basically makes other social media like Facebook and Twitter unnecessary.

Deleting all social media is great, but for many people, it may be just as effective to simply do a Marie Kondo-esque purge of the social media junk you've accumulated over time.
Postmortem: Every Frame a Painting (2017)
That's not really a claim that science can prove.
I imagine it would also be helpful to quickly determine if something is worth taking more time to read carefully. Or maybe to get a quick overview of the contents of something before you really dig into it.
I use other sites to curate content for me. Mostly HN and the people I follow on Twitter. I try to stay on a news diet.
> Wouldn't the entities you're describing be Health Clearinghouses?

No, a clearinghouse is (to summarize the definition you posted from the regs) an intermediary between providers and/or payers in handling transactions for which standards exist under HIPAA.

They receive PHI in either standard or nonstandard forms, transform it to or from standard forms if necessary and transmit it on; it'd PHI the whole time through that function.

An entity acquiring deidentified data (which is explicitly not PHI under HIPAA, that's the whole point of deidentification) is not (for that reason) a clearinghouse, and if they can get other data and reidentify the deidentified data, they can do whatever they want with it.

The theory of deidentification is that the risk of this is minimal (indeed, other than scrubbing virtually everything that could possibly be used to reassociate the data, the only way for PHI to be deidentified is to get a notionally-qualified expert to certify a very low risk of reidentification.)

The problem is that all such certifications are based on a faulty premise: if data is not completely scrubbed so that reidentification without having essentially the equivalent to the original PHI is impossible, the risk of reassociation is almost never very low, because the process is automatable and the marginal cost is near zero.
That's the bill. How much did she actually pay?
I've never seen a software contractor that could avoid being considered an employee...

There are lots of them. Consider a company that doesn't produce software at all hiring you to build an app for them. or a company that has no expertise in your area, etc.

If you are embedded in a team and could swap roles with any of them, you probably aren't a really a contractor though.
The people didn't pick Trump because we don't function in a presidential system where a) the people elect the president directly, b) the ballot functions on a one vote, one man principle.

The president is elected by gaining enough Electors, whose voting totals do not correlate with the total amount of votes nationally for the president. Instead, the votes are weighed based on the state's congressional delegation and senators, which is based on a population proportion for the house and none of the senate. So some states have a higher impact on the EC total than others; for example, a voter in California has less marginal impact than a vote in Wyoming.

The comment isn't wrong, and its pretty telling that modern conservatism is triggered and upset when facts are presented.
I'm aspiring for the else in this conditional.
>America also leads the world in obesity

I've found three sources that have us at 16 or 17 (and they all use BMI, which is ok I guess, but not great.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_body_mass...

>anxiety disorders

Upper middle of the pack by region. Anxiety also correlates to wealth.

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/254610/WHO-...

>and cocaine use

#5 per the latest data I can find.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_prevalenc...
I don't see suburban areas ever becoming truly mass transit viable.

I DO see a future where the benefits of living in denser-packed cities outpace the downsides, encouraging more and more of the US population to live in areas that are (or become) population dense enough for car-free lifestyles to be viable.
If it really takes 5-10x as long, it might be more efficient to reread books you decide are worth remembering. Reading the whole book 5 times (with months in between, of course) seems like it would be more effective at helping you remember the book itself, rather than your summaries and statistics from a single reading. You might not remember all of your takeaways from your first reading with this method, but you should be able to make new observations and connections each time you reread it, which you have a 0% chance of remembering with your current method.
Can I ask what country this is in?

Here in the UK, nothing had changed, and any debate that wasn't centred around condemning Snowden and justifying the actions of the security services, was very short lived.
Medicare, Medicaid and the VA manage to be cheaper per capita despite specifically insuring the old, the poor, and veterans.

What's your statistical and empirical reasoning and why should we ignore that elephant of a top line number?
In case anyone regularly has trouble not getting hit by an Oil Tanker, I'd like to recommend John W. Trimmer's excellent book: How to Avoid Huge Ships[1].

[1]: https://www.amazon.com/Avoid-Huge-Ships-John-Trimmer/dp/0870...
The whole idea of ACH transfers and giving everyone write access to everyone's account in this day and age is crazy to me.

There should not be a way for money to leave an account without the account owner's explicit permission.
Nice to see that there's a free plan. I'd be really happy to give it a try if free plans meant something. As if to prove the point, ClickUp just sent an email trying to force an upgrade.

The thing about a free plan is that you put all your data into their walled garden, teach everyone else how to use it, and then you have a limited time to move to something else once they decide it's time to squeeze you. They have nothing to lose. If someone doesn't want to pay, it's good to push them away, and if they do pay, the money is just as good whether the customer hates them or not.

The ClickUp announcement has all the usual "features":

- The free plan will be available forever.

- This is necessary for the free plan to be sustainable.

- We're happy to give you a short-term discount to make the upgrade less painful.

Sorry to say it, but this offer from Clubhouse will be no different. They're in business to make money, and once you start relying on it, they'll pull the rug out from under you the same as pretty much every other company.
There's a lot of cultural inertia behind meat and it's incredibly difficult to get people to change their diet that drastically (they can't eat their favorite foods, they need to learn entirely new recipes) it's much much easier to just work with them and make good substitutes.

I just went vegan and without it being a strong personal conviction I wouldn't have been able to do it.
Show HN: Jupiter and Its 79 Moons
I have never seen a signing bonus. Options, yearly bonus, even rev-share, sure.

> There can be other facets of a company that should influence your decision, such as what type of healthcare they offer,

Almost universally, company health care SUCKS. Look for major medical. If it's not there, don't bother. Save yourself the 7$ a month they will rebate you, if you opt-out. JPMorgan? Trash. Experian? Trash. etc

> What the 401k matching looks like

This is important. Generally % of paycheck up to a limit. It does take a chunk from your paycheck, which is you saving for yourself.

> whether they offer a mega backdoor Roth, whether they allow auto-sell of your vested stocks, whether there’s an employee stock purchase plan, and whether they offer free food or gym.

This is all marginal and rare in my experience. Other than a little gym you can pay for or some snacks (which will eventually be abused and changed if the company is growing) or Kombucha on tap or whatever is not a consideration for me.
The same instrument in the hands of a skilled artist would have no trouble using it to produce a convincing likeness of whatever they were drawing.
> Setup incentives (e.g. bonuses) so that drivers get paid better after they have offset the overhead costs for a month.

A bonus increases cost, meaning the drivers need to work even more hours.

> Reward (but do not mandate) drivers for scheduling certain times/dates in advance (e.g. to optimize driver supply)

Again, offering rewards to drivers for driving in certain scheduled times means that drivers need to bring in even more revenue to break even to offset the price of these rewards. Either that, or the overall average pay is reduced during non-peak hours to offset the cost of rewards.

I think it's more likely is that this takes the form of Uber and Lyft giving drivers blocks of time during which they need to drive, and quotas to meet. Paying drivers during non-peak hours, and giving benefits to drivers that are not bringing in much money are things that ride share companies are going to have to take steps to avoid. If drivers start getting employee benefits, then it's a largely inevitable consequence that they'll lose the flexibility provided by contract work.
Here's a decent article highlighting 4 attacks of the 50 they claim to have foiled since 2001.
https://www.ibtimes.com/four-times-nsa-surveillance-programs...
He didn't give any less evidence than OP.
Australian tech forum that seems to still be going strong. https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/
I wonder, would HK owning the LSE make it more or less likely for China to send in the stormtroopers? My first thought was that this was a move to make HK more of an untouchable, international city. But HK billionaires simply investing offshore sounds more likely--presuming they have a direct stake in the exchange.
You have a toxic mindset. Change that.

https://www.fastcompany.com/3057869/how-social-media-is-tran...

There's one of a million case studies.
The current situation in Hong Kong? Selling something like the LSE, only to risk it being controlled by China in the near future should automatically result in the UK government blocking the sale even before it's consider any further.
I'm generally a fan of this bill I think - but I don't like bills with so many carve-outs and special exceptions - usually a sign of bad drafting or special interest influence. And can make things hard to admin. Now you have to parse whether someone is or is not part of a carevout (ie, did they exercise sufficient creativity to be in group A or not).

That's just litigation heaven. Make some rules - any rules really - that can be reasonably followed by non-attorney's. This bills has pages of if's, and's and but's.
The world runs on clicks now, and you have to make headlines sound at least a little outrageous to keep up.

I mean, I clicked because I thought, "Hope dies? I'm sure that's an exaggeration..."
The blog post didn't fully specify, but the source code suggests that the locks are tracked per-partition rather than managed centrally.
Am I the only one who finds the design with all those cameras unsettling in some weird way?
What the fuck? How many people have died because electricity was "invented"? (hint: death from anything that uses, or was produced by electricity, outpaces all other deaths, period)

Or cars? Modern computing, yes the one you're criticizing technology on right now, exists in large part because of IBM, who quite literally brought cutting-edge technology to mass genocide during the Holocaust.

But social media is the villain here? What an absurd take.
Second Nasdaq. They lead in this space. Also challenging is Aquis with the technology behind their own venue.
Sounds like you are nicely mixing in opportunities for both connected and "unplugged" experiences. I believe both are important. Everyone's experiences, opportunities and abilities will likely differ.

I suspect you use the knife example as an analogy. My daughter has a hatchet. It scares the heck out of me. I don't let her use it when I am not around or children other than our own are with her. But she loves it, and I have attempted to teach her correct and safe usage.

Technology can be as dangerous as a "sharp knife." Being given safe and monitored access to it and becoming familiar and comfortable with it will likely result in a more positive and healthy experience with it when unfettered access is suddenly thrust upon them.
Yeah, more illustrative to say the US insurance industry does not want this.
correct, it does assume uniform density, if it didnt, you could say the density was zero throughout the sphere except for a small spherical region, and it would be trivially false then

I was illustrating how in principle radii can be derived in a phenomenological sense.

I didn't read the actual papers by the experimenters of the proton radius determination, but it would probably require a modification of the Hamiltonian for the hydrogen atom, since usually one treats the nuclei as point particles.
> "...disparaging things about Obama..."

When we start using the word disparaging to describe facts and truth we are ALL in a lot of trouble. So as well-meaning as you believe you might have been with your downvote, you wording has only confirmed the general problem / bias.

Irony that just pointing these things out will get more DVs is Chapelle-funny.
I just got bloated battery in my macbook pro 2016 with touchbar. Double presses on keyboard are now not an issue, it got really slower, bluetooth module seems to work a lot worse. Only last week I noticed it to be that bloated so I stopped using it and I am waiting for battery replacement.

It was most expensive model at the time. I know people who have dirt cheap laptop 10 years, this macbook pro crap is like 3 years. Unbelivable. My macbook pro from 2014 is starting to get bloated battery I think as well.
But in a quantum universe everything is an uncollapsed wave. It doesn't seem anything can cause the collapse to happen.
iPhone 11
The new Technologic or same that others?
> Few people would have thought that we can get this type of quality using just language modeling, so it's unclear how much further we can go before we have to start tackling those fundamental problems.

Yep, that seems to be the core question. This isn't going to be the road to AGI, but it's already ahead of what most people thought could be done without underlying referents. As you say, GPT-2 has some fundamental limitations.

One is 'cognitive': it doesn't have referents or make any kind of logical assessments, only symbolic ones. Even if it develops to the point of writing publication-worthy essays, they'll be syntheses of existing texts, and inventing a novel argument (except by chance) should be essentially impossible. Even cross-format transference is basically out of the question; a news story reading "the mouse ate the tiger" won't be ruled out based on dictionary entries about mice and tigers.

The other, though, is 'intentful'. As Nostalgebraist points out, GPT-2 is essentially a text predictor impersonating a text generator. That difference creates an intrinsic limitation, because GPT-2 isn't trying to create output interchangeable with its inputs. It actively moves away from "write a novel" towards "write the most common/formulaic elements of a novel". At the current level of quality, this might actually improve results; GPT is less likely to make jarring errors when emulating LoTR's walking-and-eating sections than when emulating Gandalf's death. But as it improves and is used to generate whole texts, the "most likely" model leaves it writing unsurprising, mid-corpus text indefinitely.

Solving the cognitive limitation essentially requires AGI, and even adding crude referents in one domain would be quite tough. So I'll make a wild speculation that fixing the intentful limitation will be a big advance soon: training specifically for generation will produce models that more accurately recreate the structure and 'tempo' of human text, without being put deterred by excess novelty.
That Frogger demo was pretty cringey.
I believe he is a hero and did the right thing, but I think there is no way the US could do anything but try to put in prison someone who illegally made state secrets public.
That would have set the precedent that anyone with secret bad looking intelligence about the US would be safe to come out with it.
Turns out I'm sure that there is a lot of intelligence that looks quite bad for the US.
In most developed countries birth rates are dropping on their own. I would try decent sex education and access to free contraception before this route