skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I have no idea.

For a identical normal populations, repeating an experiment produces p<=0.2 20% of the time, and produces p<=0.005 0.5% of the time.

A coin comes up on the same side 3 times in a row vs 8 times in a row...I have no idea why we should shrug and consider the plausibility of coin bias in these two cases about the same.

---

EDIT: I he means that in the case of an actual difference in the populations, p=0.2 and p=0.005 are both pretty likely outcomes.

When the populations are the same, p=0.2 and p=0.005 are quite different happenings.

This is because p-value methods doesn't worry very much about type II errors.
I hear ya. By my rough calculation, I lived for about 33 years without social media. It was nice.
I'm aware the prices are before insurance, but having just spent some time in TX, i'm amazed at the amount of young(ish) people walking around with some sort of "disability" that could (and would) be easily fixed if only they'd go see a doctor.

In a country with universal healthcare we simply don't see that. Notice something that isn't right ? go see a doctor - it's free.
I usually sleep around 6hrs on workdays. I need around 3-4 coffee / day, but not more :) I usually go to bed at around 2-3AM and wake at 8:30AM.

I can manage a job, side projects, girlfriend and social life. I'm not sure when will it hit back if it will ever.
> only effect is that drivers are going to be scheduled in advance

That’s a claim the ride-sharing companies are making but the law doesn’t require that. They could do that, but they could also let drivers take a shift at a moment’s notice. In that scenario, though, there may not be a shift available when a driver wants one. The ride sharing company will have to pay at least minimum wage so they probably won’t offer a shift when demand is low. Perhaps that won’t be a huge difference in effect in terms of a driver getting work since the limiting factor is demand, regardless.

There are significant effects besides scheduling, though. Drivers will have to get basic benefits like minimum wage, unemployment benefits, etc. there are a lot of labor laws that make a distinction, so there will be a lot of changes from that perspective.

In terms of vehicles, I would think drivers would be able to continue using their own vehicles, but would need to be paid for that somehow. The typical way to do that is a per mile amount which covers everything, fuel, wear, depreciation, etc.
I think it was aimed at getting him to stop excusing antisemites, which is an embarrassment. It's unclear what you think those links demonstrate, other than many writers thought that too.

"So, @georgegalloway was right" is one of nature's warning signs.
Plus Uber has at various times assisted with vehicle financing and insurance. And they're working on creating a fleet of autonomous cars.
Authenticate a user as _what_ / _who_ ? That's the most important question you need to figure out the answer to before setting off on this journey.

If I "authenticate" a $1 postcard of the Mona Lisa, does that mean it's the real Mona Lisa? A real postcard? Really worth a dollar? Really a physical object that exists?
It is an excellent feature in certain contexts, for example image galleries. In other contexts, however, it's horrible.
That's why I don't give my mobile number to any mobile service. Heck, I don't even give it to my service providers. I use Twilio phone numbers as a filter to transfer voice or texts without using my real number.
For a detailed and insightful treatment of the evolution of antitrust law in the US, I recommend “Cornered” by Barry Lynn.

The key point is that the interpretation of the law changed in the 80s to a very narrow test of monopoly - whether a company’s dominant position in an industry hurt consumers (ie created higher prices). This ignores, for example, monopolistic behavior that makes it impossible for startups to compete.

The current administration is shaking things up by not limiting itself to this historical definition (though what definition it is using instead is unclear). For the last 40 years, Google would never have been challenged as a monopoly because its products were free to consumers, hence there could be no harm to them, hence no monopoly. Same for Facebook.
I grant you that an iPhone is still no guarantee, but there is a difference in the level of surveillance that Apple and Google exhibit.
Example? I live in Austin and don’t see this.
> Yeah, so what? I think we have often enough discussed that the US healthcare system is broken.

You think giving birth is free? There are usually 3 or 4 professionals present, along with a bed for the day, instruments to measure various things, drugs for (pre) and post delivery, etc... it's far from being like a regular doctor visit.
It comes, via a long path that includes “kaiser”, from Caesar. One of the early Ivans started using it, it stuck, and even when they tried changing to imperator people kept using tsar/czar. In English it seems to be used informally to describe the person in charge even if the are more of a figurehead than a locus of actual authority.
I think i'm interested but unfortunately my karma point isn't enough to prove my HN identity. Maybe, some help would do smiles
They get paid because the bounce rate they’re being evaluated on at performance review time goes way down.
I tried to avoid being so categorical. However, this is the conclusion I have come to so far)
Or perhaps you are part of a government with significant budgetary limitations.

Not everyone is in the West.
Ghosts of the East Coast: Doomsday Ships
Now you're selling altcoins to old people right ?
Learnings from 1 year as a product designer
What's the universally accepted alternative?
The problem is when a phone number is the only factor that is used. That is what Twitter allows.

If you truly use an SMS only as a second factor - and don't provide recovery options only by phone, like Twitter - then you have much less of a problem. In that case, a compromised phone number does not give the attacker the password or other factor. SMS is still extremely imperfect for 2FA, but it's still a lot better than no 2FA [1].

[1]:https://security.googleblog.com/2019/08/understanding-why-ph...
On this test, I think they'll argue they're a software company - they make apps to facilitate a relationship between rider and driver.
Orders for new Class 8 trucks are down about 80% year over year. https://ftrintel.com/news/latest-orders/index.php
At least for continuous statistics, the p-value is uniformly distributed when the null hypothesis is true.
What they should do is offer several alternatives when enabling DoH (Cloudflare isn't the only DoH provider out there), and anto-detect if your ISP or local network supports it at the enterprise level.

At least you can change the provider in about:config. I don't remember if you can do it through the settings page.
Of course, I'd rather trust unecncrypted plaintext DNS queries that go to my ISP and government!

If you don't like CF just switch to different provider https://github.com/curl/curl/wiki/DNS-over-HTTPS
I think that's what he's saying too, but what is that supposed to show? Is he arguing against some claim that every interval of 1 standard deviation is equally significant? Did anybody make this claim? So far as I know, nobody considers (say) a 6-sigma effect to be 6 times stronger than a 1-sigma effect...
Probably about the same as reading because the argument was that interactive dialogue was the important thing.
> The problem is that people keep voting for politicians who abuse that power and use it in ways that it was never meant for.

How can we not when all of our options are going to do that, just in different ways?
I would wager most (>50%) of the people on Earth don’t have regular access to a printer, nor regularly consume A4 printed goods. For them “paper size” would be whatever is common in the notebooks/journals sold in their country.
The "people could die" argument is very weak and I would assume it to always be a self-serving assertion by government or the intelligence community.

If this situation would not be the responsibility of agencies breaking the law in the first place, it is no excuse for the state to break fundamental rights of citizens.

Didn't happen from the leaks that did show executive overreach and abuse, so it would always make sense to make this protective claim and therefore it looses any credibility.

There were no repercussions for the agencies to employ mass surveillance. This is a danger that is magnitudes greater than leaks being dangerous for spies, who know about the dangers of their profession.
My reading is that it's similar to the UK's IR35 regulation? Do any UK contractors here have any additional experience of working in/out of IR35 to give some context?
I think p-values are actually somewhat demonized and I have grown to like them more and more over time. The standard interpretation is actually overly complicated for some reason and it can be simplified to "your p-value cutoff is an upper-bound on the rate of type I errors," over the long term. That's simple and actionable and is an immediate consequence of the definition of p-values! Frankly, I don't know why text-books don't give this as the definition of p-values, and they should reserve "probability of an event at least as extreme conditional upon the null hypothesis" as the thing-you-show-to-prove-it's-a-p-value.

The current trend of saying that "cutting p-values off at a specific value is bad" makes me worry. Now you can argue that your p=0.06 result shouldn't be rejected when really we should probably be pushing for stricter standards rather than inching towards looser ones. It also destroys the nice interpretation of p-values above. P-values were literally made to be cut off - if you want to stop doing that, you need to show me a coherent philosophy of what to do instead.

What I do think is true is the problem you have where part A of the experiment suggests X so you test X more directly in part B with a weaker but more specific test and get p=0.06 and now you can't publish. That's a dumb cutoff, clearly a p=0.06 test is likely to shift our belief towards X so it does nothing but bolster part A. Typically papers do this several times and the marginal 'failure' of one step should not sink the entire ship. This is a case where a Bayesian analysis might be more useful as it can incorporate weak evidence.

But the problem I see often is not that p-values are misused but that they were junk in the first place. For example, the widely-used DESeq2 (as well as some competitors in RNA-seq differential expression analysis) will happily spit out p-values of 10^-100 for an experiment with only four replicates in each of two conditions! There is no way you can get that level of evidence from just four replicates, even if the values are 0,0,0,0 and 1e6,1e6,1e6,1e6. The assumption of normality is reasonable near the mean but gets increasingly inaccurate in the tail, which is exactly where you end up when you do things like sort 30,000 tests by their p-values. In fact taking a p-value cutoff is probably the only reasonable thing to do here - that way you'll ignore the fact that it's absurdly small and just treat it as "small enough".
Many ISPs won't offer such thing https://www.zdnet.com/article/uk-isp-group-names-mozilla-int...
You forget to mention that the head of the commission "Ursula v.d. Leyen" never was a candidate. The candidate that campaigned for election called "Manfred Weber" suddenly stepped down right after the election and "Ursula" was installed. This is the most blatant anti-democratic thing I've ever seen.

But it gets worse: Ursula v.d. Leyen has a history of trying to implement countrywide internet cencorship in Germany (and is since called "Zensursula"). And could only be stopped because of a gigantic rise of the Pirate Party (now defunct) to levels that became dangerous to the establishment.
BTC would stay as volatile at 500k+ as in the past
Yeah,, did all that , tried my luck with DDG and bing as well
I am surprised not even one OKR tool is open source
The link you posted starts by giving three definitions, only one of which corresponds with "not". Maybe you meant to post a different link?
Why is the US the only developed country where private vs public healthcare has been a consistent point of debate? Why are the brainwashed masses of the other developed nations (of which I am a citizen) not outraged by this 'con job' that we have fallen victim to?

Of course this exact same thought process can be applied to other american 'quirks'. e.g. mass shootings and gun control.
Same thing I face several time
Does anyone knows why does mozilla think this is a good idea? Between each user sharing dns queries with their isps and everyone sharing dns queries with cloudflare it appears that it's obviously more secure the first approach even if none of them is really that great.
I don't think that's true at all. Apple is the only player that has ownership of the most important parts of software, hardware and services. That's why their products are better than their competitors.

Camera under the screen etc. are gimmicks that don't provide real value to customers. On the other hand, having the most performant SoC combined with the most performant software does provide real value.
Steve Benton's Spatial Imaging Group and its student diaspora had a huge influence on the holography and 3D display world. We developed full color reflection holography, the first holographic video system, and the first image predistortion algorithms for light fields. Our 1 meter sq hologram was at the time the world's largest computer generated 3D display. Unfortunately, Steve died pre-Google, and his contributions are not fully recognized.

I was at the lab a long time ago (from its opening in 1985 until 1997). What made it unique at the time was breaking down the barriers between computation, technology, creative arts, and popular culture in a way that seems so natural now. On a campus where hundreds of other PhD students seemed to be working on amazing research on very detailed topics, we were building pieces of the future and demoing them daily to industry and lay people alike. That wasn't considered hard science at a place like MIT, but the ultimate impact on society was huge.

One other area of huge but unsung impact was speech technology. Chris Schmandt's Speech Research Group group envisioned and developed audio assistants that paved the way for Siri and Alexa. His students and research have also helped shape an entire field.

As for current controversies, well after my time. The big deal about funding back at the beginning of the Media Lab was taking corporate money vs government/defense money (90% corporate for the ML vs 90% government for the rest of MIT).
We also made our drivers open-source - here is video driver’s source code that we use. It’s code for Arduino that could be uploaded to Atmel 328P that we use - https://github.com/smartykit/apple1/blob/master/SmartyKitApp...
I think he was being pedantic about how it's the probability of observations at least as extreme as the ones actually obtained happening if the null hypothesis is true, which is not the same thing as those particular observations happening by chance.
Yes, you're right with that.

Its curious that I haven't found that to be a pain point.
Nasim Taleb wrote extensively on this.

> P-values are shown to be extremely skewed and volatile, regardless of the sample size n, and vary greatly across repetitions of exactly same protocols under identical stochastic copies of the phenomenon; such volatility makes the minimum p value diverge significantly from the "true" one. Setting the power is shown to offer little remedy unless sample size is increased markedly or the p-value is lowered by at least one order of magnitude.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.07532

Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0
I can't see any way in which that could be abused.

Kazakhstan, China, Russia and the NSA all agree with me.
There is an interesting question to ask here. Do you learn more effectively by reading or by interacting?

My bias is towards the latter.

Real-time communication offers an opportunity for error detection/error correction in transmission, thus - better understanding. This mechanism is lost with written text.
There are paths and trade-offs.

a) Focus on technologies that have staying power. I don't think Java EE jobs will really ever disappear

b) instead of flavour of the month, focus on the flavour of the decade? i.e. Go and Kubernetes seems to be the trend :)

c) instead of resume-driven development, focus on having a network. Most of my jobs have merged because a former colleague, classmate or friend realized I knew some programming once, and they might want me to work for them :)

More in depth, I think you can make a trade-off between the tried and tested and the new-fangled thing, by introducing the new in your current job. Technologies that are not cutting edge, but slightly past the first peak on the hype-curve. I.e. if you do backend, you would probably try Go language (instead of Rust/Elixir/...), on frontend you could introduce Type-script (instead of other compile-to-js languages), you might try Kubernetes ... in general technoligies with following that are still new, but with more than five years in production at some places it puts them outside of the 'flavour of the month'
Isn’t a 1TB microSD card going to be much much slower than the storage used in an iPhone?
"During the early period of the Cold War, the CIA became convinced that communists had discovered a drug or technique that would allow them to control human minds. "

When I read it I actually tried to imagine how it was to live back then and to act based on rumors.
It was a crazy time to be a secret agent that's for sure
In many places in the EU you can opt for an electricity provider that "provides" you with renewable-sourced electricity. Basically the provider is buying the amount of electricity you consume from hydro/solar/wind producers instead of coal/nuclear.
Will this affect freelance journalists?
>if the governing people/party is really intent on abusing power, voting is probably not going to stop it.

As long as people still believe in the rule of law voting them out will usually get the pendulum swinging the other way.
ISPs have proven themselves untrustworthy repeatedly, CloudFlare yet really hasn't. Not that I like the control they have, but it's honestly the fault of ISP's this has happened.
By index they’re referring to SEO because google indexes pages. Scroll bar is useless? Add a tap to load more button, give the user control of when content loads and now the can scroll comfortably. Need a footer? You can have a sticky one.

These criticisms are all really bad
Absolutely. We can't even change our voting system, I can't see a written constitution being agreed any time soon.
And?

Sure, someone has to pay for it, but why not all together?

Because kids are a private luxury only rich people should be able to afford? Sounds kiiinda fascist to me.
Firefox, wth.

Cloudflare is not the internet.
The rare ingredient that's healthier than meat
I do trust my ISP and my government more than I trust CloudFlare.
It's much simpler. The attackers simply go to the service provider, claim they lost the sim card/phone and provide your details. If they're convincing enough the provider will deactivate your SIM and activate theirs within 10 minutes or so and by the time you notice your mobile connection doesn't work anymore they're already busy entering TANs sent to your number.

Now I don't know how easy that is to pull off in the US, but it varies in different countries. In some it takes a day to switch to a new SIM, in some you only need the real owner's name and a codeword and it'll get switched within minutes, for free and no questions asked.
If what you do as a software consultant is outside of the usual activities of the company you work for I suspect you should be fine.

Uber however is a taxi company and the brunt of their primary activities are done (atm) by contractors. Driving people around is their core business - even if they will probably give the defense that they're only a middle man with an app that links independent drivers up with people looking for a ride.
Unfortunately, without concrete examples it's hard to grasp what features you really mean.
> claimed that Mozilla plans to support DNS-over-HTTPS "in such a way as to bypass UK filtering obligations and parental controls, undermining internet safety standards in the UK."

> By planning to support DNS-over-HTTPS, Mozilla is throwing a monkey wrench in many ISPs' ability to sniff on customers' traffic and filter traffic for government-mandated "bad sites."

But I don't see why they can't offer their DoH, it seems their issue is with Cloudflare not with DoH per se
Note that Signal, everyone's favourite secure SMS replacement, also conflates phone numbers and identity!
I think the part that you have correctly included that people forget or elide is that it's the probability under a specific null hypothesis. So it's a function of what you have chosen for that - normal distributions, a certain parameter value of 0, etc. So this means that a) it's not the probability you'd see in the real world under repeated performance b) it's not the probability under other reasonable null hypotheses. Like maybe under the hypothesis parameter = 0 you get an improbably large p-value, but under parameter = 0.1, or with different assumed underlying distributions, you wouldn't see something so extreme.

I'd guess that the original writer understands this, and that Gelman is only pointing it out because casual readers sometimes don't mentally retain the full baggage that the p-value carries.
I wish I could do the same, to be honest.

In my job, I'm required every day to consume a lot of information from many different platforms.

It turned me into Content Junkey
We’re the Only Plane in the Sky (2016)
IRS is counting your book sales Edward, CIA and FBI might be the least of your worries ;)
Yep, then you have to view the source and find the links from there
How to analyse user interviews and figure out what people want
If you eat meat, drive a car, fly in planes, live in a big house, have kids, etc., buy all the iPhones you want. It’s not going to make a lick of difference when it comes to climate change.
Maybe it's just me because I just realized how irritating it is, but I really dislike when the title of an article commands me to do something. I don't really even understand why people do it, is it supposed to make me hate-click the link? It just makes me think the author is juvenile and i lose interest.
With our daughter, we shopped around and prepaid at a private hospital $5k, no insurance.

We ended up not making it to the hospital in time (35 min labor and delivery) and I delivered the baby at home (not recommended). We took mama and baby into the hospital to get checked out and were out of there 5 hours later.

I later contacted the hospital and asked for a partial refund because my wife and I did the hard part.

They refunded us $2.5k.
Imposing? Nobody is forcing you to work in a "Gig economy" job. Many people like the freedom and flexibility and now seem to want all the benefits of a full time job too.
I think this article would benefit from not shoehorning politics into the issue. Couldn't take this seriously after the irrelevant slight at Trump.
Is that not per-phone number? The cloned SIM would have the same one
Check out these links [0] [1] or google for "p value distribution" or "p curve"

[0] http://www-ist.massey.ac.nz/dstirlin/CAST/CAST/HtestPValue/t...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value#Distribution
Ask HN: What do you think of Apple's new pricing strategy?
In terms of Apple hitting price ceiling with iPhones and doubling down on its services.
If the single DoH 'server' is the issue, wouldn't having a list of several 'servers' around the globe (hopefully in places where there isn't any form of censorship and preferably though non-commercial institutions) that the browser selects randomly solve this?