skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Yep. The real question is how prevalent these "skimping on safety" companies are. When taken individually, no doubt it looks bad - but when considering that there are thousands of delivery partners, each having 20-500 trucks, delivering >5 million packages per day (per the article), I would expect to see a few incidents crop up.

For example, it's reported that FedEx drivers were involved in 41 deaths in 24 months:

> In the 24-month period prior to December 3, 2017, FedEx Express drivers were reported to have been involved in 1762 crashes, 575 involving injuries, including 41 deaths.

https://www.frg-law.com/carriers/fedex/

The big question is just how much Amazon is applying pressure and causing those sorts of issues, and are they outside of the normal expected incidents for logistics companies? WRT the Amazon delivery network, is this a matter of a few bad apple operators trying to squeeze every cent of profit by overworking drivers and not deploying more vans? Or is it a case of systemic unattainable expectations from Amazon that force every delivery partner to cut corners so they can maintain a livable profit margin?

Difficult to say from this article...but in spite of the sensationalism, the examples it recounts certainly aren't good.
That "Josh" guy makes the best easter eggs.
There are always active investors who could take advantage of this valuation mismatch and bet for/against specific companies that they think are undervalued/overvalued and make money. Eventually this valuation mismatch would show up in their P/L statement and balance sheet. Passive investing freeloads on active investors - in a sense. That's all it is and I for one think it's great.
Investing in a whole sector isn’t any less of an investment. You still have to believe in coffee as something that will return in the long time. You’re just trading risk for softer returns than if you were to take a gamble on one specific shop.
> What if my index fund is actually just buying and holding the underlying stock as opposed to just a price tracking entity? In that case not taker for my fund = no taker for the underlying stock right? Will this not have the liquidity risk that Bury mentions?

In any crisis, the people who get really screwed are those who decide they have to sell, at any price. Instant liquidity - by whichever route - gets really expensive. An actively managed fund can at least decide which assets to sell to meet redemptions, holding those it thinks are undervalued at the moment. Whereas an index fund is effectively exposed to a crisis anywhere in the market.
>To me, that seems like a cultural thing unique to Silicon Valley that the rest of the world does not necessarily want.

In China WeChat is synonymous with both your business and personal life.

When networking and meeting business contacts you don’t give out your LinkedIn, you give out your WeChat.
> have a bunch of Lego from decades ago that I am slowly offloading to kids of family and friends.

I think that proves the grand-parents point about quality just fine, even if you didn't buy it with that bonus in mind. People today do know that LEGO lasts for decades and it may factor into their decisions. It may also factor into yours now if you buy a new toy for a kid.
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In these times I'm looking at more conservative "passive investments" such as interest bearing accounts, FDIC insured. With Twitter posts resulting in large swings in the market, I declare "market manipulation" by those with large numbers of followers.
> We don't use Javascript much

Not even Leaflet? I've been using its R interface and I think it's fairly easy to pick up.
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And I was planning to learn Mandarim... =/
Nokia flip phones are back
Thinkpad T450. Good battery life. Modular components, great GNU/Linux and *BSD support. I might upgrade my display to an IPS panel though for better viewing angles.
"Delivery Service Partner"
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I'm sure they have enough data to support this new business. In fact, lot of people date in Facebook/Instagram. When you see in Tinder or other apps "msg me on Insta/fb" you can understand many things from their preferences: (getting followers, likes, etc).
> Except the MBPI results show very poor repeatability and don't seem to be particularly predictive of anything.

Which is either an issue with the theory or the experiments, right?

In general I agree that one should be skeptical of theories that aren't validated by experimentation, but in this specific case there is plenty of reason to believe that it is the experiments themselves that are deficient:

- MBTI theory is complex. An order of magnitude more so than something like the big 5. This also makes it more useful / predictive.

- MBTI theory posits internal thinking processes. These cannot be directly observed. Most experiments don't even discuss this, they just rely on the unreliable type indicators (questionnaires) blindly. Of course they don't find significant results

- Most experiments that do discuss theory, discuss the simpler (and IMO plain wrong) trait model of MBTI that is more similar to the big 5 model. Under this model, MBTI terms (e.g. Introversion, Feeling) apply to people. The more sophisticated and plausible model (that almost all MBTI practitioners and theorists work with) applies these terms to Cognitive Processes (i.e. thinking mechanisms), and only then describes people in terms of which thinking processes they prefer (use more often/easily).

- The theory itself is still often described in terms of Jargon that came from Jung. This makes it hard to understand what is being described, even though it very similar to other theories in mainstream academic psychology/philosophy.

> If we were to do the MBPI thing with IQ, then everyone under 100 would be "stupid" and everyone over 100 would be "smart" which is silly because obviously someone with a 99 IQ is much more similar to someone with a 101 IQ than either is to someone with an 85 or 115 IQ.

This is actually a misconception. An MBTI type really describes "A baseline trajectory of preferences towards different mental processes across their lifetime". So:

- Individuals will differ (due to life circumstances, experience, etc). The MBTI claim, is that modulo life experience, this individual would develop in this way.

- A given individual will vary how they think over their lifetime (in a predictable way!).

- A given individual will vary how they think over short time scales (minutes) in a random (unpredictable) way. But that over longer time scales patterns will emerge.

Notably, dual-process theory has the same binary structure, and a LOT of experimental evidence that the bimodal distribution holds up in practice.
"When an index fund investor sells, they’re technically selling their holdings in direct proportion to their weighting in the index. So there is literally no market impact."

Have to take the rest of the article with several grains of salt after reading this. Even if the index was spread against all stocks it would have an impact. It implies that you can only move money around the market, not take it out of the market altogether.
>* if the indexs see a sell off they won't find the liquidity in the market to cash out their positions and will drive the market down.*

What is unique about no liquidity during a sell-off driving markets down? It's the definition of a sell-off. The fact there's no liquidity is what drives down the market in every sell-off.
I'm gratified to find someone here telling it like it is (IMO).

FWIW, that's how I read this too: If Google can get people on the "Differential Privacy"† bandwagon it diffuses their own culpability.

(I think privacy is effectively dead, so from my POV this DF BS is just propping up its corpse.)

†In practice, "Differential Privacy" is a euphemism for "no privacy".
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How so? If you do an aerocapture to descent the way we normally land planetary probes it's 3850 m/s of delta-v from LEO to Venus intersect but 4270 m/s for Mars. We don't have as good a sense for the atmosphere on Venus as on Mars so I assume you wouldn't have the same prevision in landing on Venus as Mars doing things this way but for a blimp that doesn't really matter. Also, the Venus intersect will be at higher velocity so you'll need a heavier heat shield.
I disagree with code style as a fixation. It's much better to have a uniform style if it improves the readability of the code.

I think the most important thing is to not make a fixation a 20 hour discussion.
I agree with you in theory (hence why I gave a nod to Rust), but I think it's easier to have safe, bloated software. I think newer languages like Rust and Swift definitely are demonstrating the ability to have lean software that is just as fast as something written in C, but these are still relatively new in the scope of things.

Much as I think Java is a garbage language, there's no doubt that, by default, it's safer than a program written in C. It also typically is bigger, requiring a bit more RAM and resources.
Burry's point wasn't that the ETFs would lose liquidity, but rather than the lightly-traded names in the index would.

If the index instruments have a lot more liquidity than the underlying names, then that means they won't be able to gracefully absorb the liquidity shocks from an unwind in the index.

Here's some back of the envelope calculations. Between SPY, IVV, and VOO alone, there's $500 billion in S&P 500 index ETFs. Consider if an unwind event leads to 20% of index assets being redeemed in a single day. That's $100 billion from the above ETFs alone.

Now consider a typical thinly traded single-name stock like Chubb Limited (symbol CB). CB makes up 0.3% of the S&P 500 by weight. So in the hypothetical scenario above, the APs would have to collectively sell $300 million worth of CB in a single day. Chubb's entire ADV is only $238 million.

Trying to sell more than 100% of a stock's ADV in a single day is guaranteed to produce huge market impact. The current liquidity providers in CB almost certainly cannot absorb that amount of trading volume all in one direction. In that scenario, Chubb's stock might fall by 20%, for something that had nothing to do with the company itself.

I think the overall point is that a lot of single-name stocks nowadays don't really have much of an individual market. Names like TSLA, FB or TEVA definitely have a robust market with a lot of traders still focused on company specifics. But a lot of the more boring, lower volatility, mid-cap stocks (like CB) mostly just trade along with the index nowadays. If there are technicals related to index capital flows, stocks like that are going to get taken for a ride.

[1] https://www.etf.com/channels/sp-500-etfs
[2] https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500
[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CB?p=CB
Providing well defined privacy guaranties is legitimate. It doesn't become bad practice just because Google advocates for it.
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It’s later than you think
Here are some infant mortality numbers from your link:

1947:
Finland: 6.5%
US: 4.3%

2013 (when the article was written):
Finland: 0.3%
US: 0.7%

How can the tiny country of Finland be so much better at this than the US? It's because of what they talk about in the article, i.e., a government actually caring for its citizens (read, "welfare state").
Customers don't want to pay for it. You can easily run yourself out of business building a more secure system. We need to get people and customers to care first to make the economics work.
User interfaces are measurably slower than they were 20 years ago by at least an order of magnitude depending on how you measure it. They also do more, so it's up to the particular user and use case to decide if the trade off was good.

There was someone who said something along the lines of, "Heaven is old software on new hardware" and I personally agree with them.
This argument is just as applicable to the first amendment. Which is to say that with what we know now about the protection of civil liberties, the idea of the Bill of Rights not being individual rights is as ridiculous as the idea that only men have the right to vote.
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So yes, if you compare matrix multiply in Python vs SIMD instructions, you will find a big improvement. Much harder to do that for more general purpose workloads.

And it doesn't scale:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/nanoclast/semiconductors/processor...

And in many cases, if you normalize all the metrics, e.g. precision, process node, etc. You'll find that the advantage of ASICs is greatly exaggerated in most cases and is often within ~2-4X of the more general purpose processor. E.g. small GEMM cores in the Volta GPU actually beat the TPUv2 on a per chip basis. Anton 2, normalized for process, is within 5x ish of manycore MIMD processors in energy efficiency.

In other cases, e.g. the marquee example of bitcoin ASICs, that only works because of extremely low memory and memory bandwidth requirements.
In my view the wreck isn’t made worse so much by absolute magnitude of one momentum vector as by the magnitude of the difference in momentum vectors.
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Seems like AI-as-a-service would just delegate the AI objective function (OF) to someone else. But unless demand for smart services ignites into a business value multiplier (like elimination of existing human labor, maybe), I don't see it catalyzing downstream emergences of the kind Hillis et al were discussing.

I think the Edge group is suggesting that AI might spawn unexpected forms of emergence in terms of social priorities behaviors or or movements, though they don't provide any examples (outside sci-fi) of what forms this might take.
Tiny NASA satellite gets fascinating 3D peek inside Hurricane Dorian
They basically did announce a "v2", it's the last batch:

> Batch Fir

> Hardware: 14nm Next Generation CPU

> Mechanical Design: Version 2

> Software: Long term support release

> Certifications: FCC and CE

> Shipping window: Q4 2020
The minifigs are themselves an interesting departure from the figs that preceded them. The figs were simply too large, they stood about twice as tall as a minifig. But there were all the elements of a family in there, including grandmothers and babies. The first time a female minifig was made came a long time after the first male minifig.
There are a number of interesting technical challenges related to making differential privacy work in production (e.g. implementing novel algorithms for ML and statistical inference, proving privacy properties).

If you are interested in learning more, my company (LeapYear) is hiring differential privacy researchers, as well as software engineers interested in developing an enterprise machine learning platform.

Some background on our team: We recently raised our Series B, and hired VMWare’s first VP of Engineering, who scaled VMWare from 15 to 750+ engineers. Almost all of our backend code is written in Haskell.

On the commercial side, we’ve signed several multi-million dollar contracts with Fortune 100 customers in financial services, healthcare, & tech, and deployed on sensitive data at petabyte scale.

Happy to answer questions and review applications submitted here: https://leapyear.ai/careers
> Maybe YOUR benefit, but you've been privileged to export misery and suffering to other people around the world.

This is exactly what I would say about someone cozily working at Google in Silicon Valley. I literally deal with the costs imposed on seniors and less technically literate users by Google's ad nightmare on a daily basis.

And before you get high and mighty about how bad the government is compared to Google, remember that Google is built upon and protected by that very same government, and that Google's NetPAC is actively contributing chunks of many Googler paychecks (perhaps even yours?) to fund the very worst members of that government: https://twitter.com/Pinboard/status/1164945275066056704
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Brazilians also eat them a lot! (probably it came with the colonisation! =P)
If CollabNet had given you stock instead of options as part of your comp package they would have ended up just as worthless as your (exercised) options.

It's a bit weird that you would take wildly different views on the value of one vs the other.
All arguably unconstitutional, even if prudent and practical.

Meaningful and lawful arms controls cannot exist in the US without a new amendment modifying the 2nd.
I think one thing that really helped me was to not start from a blank page and think you are going to build a good design just by throwing stuff on there... go find other designs that you like, look at the bits and pieces that make them a good design and take those parts. Get inspiration from places like dribbble.com or Awwwards.com... theres some really good work there that you can use to build from
Are there tax benefits to exercising early? Hypothetically say I have some options with a pretty cheap exercise price, and I think the company will be taking on PE money in the near future, AND I have faith that the company will successfully exit in the future, will exercising early save me some taxes?
Luke Vibert’s Nuggets compilations have some excellent examples of this.
funny, I have actual full shares of an old company I used to work for (got the shares at a discount instead of options), but I'm still waiting for the phone call telling me I'm rich.
> There's utility in information compression.

This is a fair point. It's just much less useful than the description of an actual underlying mechanism.
Shouldn't that be the expectation ;) ?

/me is still way ahead of his children, hah!
Why are you losing faith in the normal financial system?
You don't seem to understand how or why Asian books exist (which does explain your odd views). You aren't dealing with money launderers (the only reason they have that reputation is because the Chinese govt calls people who buy foreign currency "money launderers" because buying foreign currency is, mostly, illegal), you are dealing with the biggest bookies in the world (they are far bigger than any in the UK).

And they are happy to do business with winning players because they aren't like UK books. UK books make markets on ML, that means they don't have a balanced book, and therefore need to take risk. Your only edge as a UK bookie is, therefore, marketing and finding enough mugs.

Asian books mainly make AH markets, this means a balanced book, and their only aim is to make the overlay as a commission. This means that they need sharp bettors to come in and move the line. They lose money on bets with sharps but their lines are now efficient so they make it all back and then some. All the biggest books (Pinny, SBOBet, etc.) do this. And some of them actually open lines privately for sharps to bet on before they go public (this is how StarLizard gets so much down, Tony Bloom used to work at an Asian book).

Btw, most of the large UK books trade in Asia too. It is the epicentre of betting in the world. They don't shut down accounts. It isn't money laundering.

Also, you appear to know nothing about Betfair too. Betfair white-labels through bet brokers to offer lower commissions to big bettors (I don't use Betfair but I know these deals START at 2%, no premium charge). No professional goes through Betfair directly.

Your maths for the ROI is also wildly inaccurate. Basic. I'll leave it to you to work out why.

Less conspiracy theories pls.
https://www.ipse.io/ is one of the various IPFS search engines - but it doesn't look like it's indexed this article yet...
Cell Phone Location Data Can Easily End Up in the Hands of 3rd Parties
Same with CTEs. In the last year I've worked with both and they really change the game for nontrivial queries.
Not only that but if things don’t work out (most people will have to meet multiple people before finding someone to go steady with), it can get awkward.

I think this thing has to have some ephemeral nature to it (delete account, create new one if need be later) to avoid harassers and or those who get infatuated or attached; people who just fell out in a bad way, etc.

I mean, you definitely don’t want to expose your friends and your work to new and to you unknown people. They may use your FB friends network and work and whatever other info to harass and follow, etc. also your ex-es can see activity, etc. I don’t see much good in this product.
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I would use the benjamin franklin method. This is often how I have gotten better at things in general, though I am not that great at design (and I am also trying to improve!)

- find a design you like. save it. If you pick a design that is too complex, try to break it down into just a small component.

- describe the design somehow

- try to recreate it.

- Compare your recreation with the original, noticing how the design differs.

- Iterate on this process.
I took my first MBTI test by running mbti.exe on my 386's DOS command prompt. After answering all the questions it gave me a score on a 10 point scale for each letter. So for instance I scored an 8 on the Introversion/Extroversion scale, but only a 6 on the iNtuition/Sensing scale. As such when I read the ensuing results/profile information I would always check INTP and ISTP knowing that i personally fell somewhere inbetween. That had to be somewhere in the mid 90s.

The four letter code has only ever been about having a conversational starting point, it has never been a binary thing. Anyone that ever said (like this article, or your comment) made that up in their head and then projected it on the world around them. Very INxJ behavior ;)
Excuse me for asking you to show your work, but how does this limit anyone's freedoms?

Further, are you not aware of the difference between San Francisco and say, Cupertino, Mountain View, Palo Alto... do I need to go on?

(Nevermind the astronomical housing prices and the relatively easy and affordable public transit into the city, making it more than feasible to work in the city and live elsewhere...)