I have seen a lot of this kind of stuff. Sanctions almost never work, and are almost always a bad idea.

Just like arming rebels against a government, the CIA found out, almost never results in anything good[1], then tried it again[2] and it again predictably resulted in something awful.

When it comes to sanctions, they have exacerbated situations that could have been solved with diplomacy. In the case of Iran, we already had negotiated an unprecedented deal with international inspectors having more access to its nuclear facilities and mining sites than any country in history. But that wasn’t enough. The deal was scrapped by Trump simply to erase Obama’s legacy[3], with no plan in place. It’s not just Trump, it’s the Republican leaders[4] and types of presidents the new Republican party tends to elect.[5]

Let’s turn to substance and back up the claim abou sanctions. We have seen this movie before. North Korea, cut off from world trade and under threat, was angling to get nuclear weapons. Clinton had negotiated a deal with Kin Jong Il, called the Agreed Framework[6], in exchange for step by step normalization of relations and lifting sanctions. It was already signed and began to be implemented!

Then the next administration entered office - Bush and the GOP called the deal expensive “appeasement” and scuttled it. Instead, they put more sanctions on North korea.

How did that work out? The people got united under the credible narrative that “they hate our way of life and they hate us” and North Korea got the bomb. With a little help from Ukrainians on the black market[7].

What’s worse is that with no agreement in place or relations with the US North Korea continued to act as a rogue state and gave nuclear technology to Syria to use against Israel. The Syrian nuclear reactor was covertly bombed by Israelis in a pre emptive strike[8] and no country (including Syria) spoke about this for months.

I could go down the line to show that diplomacy beats sanctions every time and that sanctions radicalize the population and make them support the very thing you want them to abandon.

I will jump straight to Godwin’s law. The Nazis came to power because of crushing sanctions on Germany after the Treaty of Versailles. Yes, France hated Germany and yes they wanted them to pay reparations for starting World War 1. But as a result, the German people were reduced to complete poverty and hyperinflation. What did they do? They had a nationalist fervor and pushed for leaders to “restore” Germany, armed themselves to the teeth, and then launched World War 2!

Imagine if there was no sanctions. Would the Germans elect Nazis if they were prosperous? Would North Koreans not develop a rootless cosmopolitan bourgiousie class if they were allowed to trade with the world? These things happen when sanctions are LIFTED. You want to help a country — lift sanctions on its people!

1. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/arming-rebels-has-...

2. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/world/middleeast/cia-syri...

3. https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-48978484

4. https://www.politico.com/story/2010/10/the-gops-no-compromis...

5. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2004/jan/12/usa.books

6. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreed_Framework

7. https://www.npr.org/2017/08/14/543477518/north-koreas-secret...

8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Outside_the_Box