> There is no need for Xi or China's establishment to do anything here. They will simply wait it out. Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. There is no end game where democracy and freedom wins and they secede from China and live happily ever after.

As I mentioned in other comments, the protestors know that the real pressure is from the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, which China cannot ignore.

Currently, Hong Kong is extremely important for China in terms of capital flow: more than half of Chinese capital inflow and outflow go through Hong Kong [1].

If the capital flow is restricted, it severely hurts China, especially when she needs foreign capital where her credit expansion is unsustainable, not to mention the ongoing trade tariffs and the bigger ”new cold war” [2].

Many protestors understand that China needs Hong Kong much more than Hong Kong needs China (as for food, water, and electricity, Hong Kong may follow Singapore’s example in how she deals with Malaysia).

The protestors know this, that’s why they are supporting the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, a bipartisan bill introduced by US Representative Jim McGovern and Senator Marco Rubio [3]. The bill demands true democracy in Hong Kong—universal suffrage for the legislative council and the chief executive—which is what the protestors want. I read somewhere that the bill is expected to pass by end of 2019.

In addition to real change in how elections will be done in Hong Kong, the bill specifically targets Hong Kong officials and business people who are restricting the democracy in Hong Kong and will freeze their assets in the US. It is fair to say that many business people who are pro-Beijing do so out of financial interests, so this bill will make them think twice before taking side. When the bill is passed, China also needs to choose: between worse financial access versus democracy for Hong Kong.

> What will most likely happen: the everyday people (shopkeepers, professionals, etc) who need to earn a living will tire of the endless disruptions currently paralyzing their streets and businesses. They will realize that the more radical elements of the demonstrations are undermining the very things that they are fighting for that make Hong Kong an attractive place for investment and international business in the first place: societal stability and the rule of law.

This was similar to my thought last month, that the protest might end like the Umbrella protest, losing support from the public. But judging from recent events, this is unlikely to be the case. One recent survey discovered that people are understanding the need for real disruption to achieve actual change (See [4] in Chinese), and the protestors know how to aim at the government without causing too much trouble for local businesses (unless they showed express support for Beijing over Hong Kong [5]).

They learned their lessons from the Umbrella protest.

[1]: Quoting “Economic and Trade Information on China” of HKTDC (https://hkmb.hktdc.com/en/1X09PHBA/hktdc-research/Economic-a...):

Hong Kong is the largest source of overseas direct investment in the Chinese Mainland. By the end of 2018, among all the overseas-funded projects approved in the Chinese Mainland, 46.3% were tied to Hong Kong interests. Cumulative utilised capital inflow from Hong Kong amounted to US$1,098.1 billion, accounting for 54.1% of the national total.

Hong Kong is also the leading destination for China’s FDI outflow. According to Chinese statistics, by 2017, the stock of FDI going to Hong Kong accumulated to US$981.3billion, or 54.2% of the total outflow of FDI.

[2]: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/16/ich-bin-ein-hong-konger...

[3]: https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-...

[4]: https://m.mingpao.com/pns/觀點/article/20190718/s00012/1563387...

[5]: https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/07/15/brands-are-being-for...