> > first you exclude 'non-western' nations, and by doing so acknowledge that there are factors besides gun ownership rate that influence gun death rates

> Of course, they are. If you live in an active conflict zone or in a country with a weak state, then surely that influences gun-related deaths (e.g. armed conflict doesn't require a lot of civilians to have guns. It's hard to control for all these variables. However, this doesn't detract from the fact that, among somewhat similar countries, gun ownership is a very strong predictor of gun-related deaths. It also doesn't detract that, amongst all nations, the US is still a leading country regarding gun deaths.

I think "a leading country" here means "behind most of central america and the caribbean". The US has a lot of cultural overlap with those areas, and there is a significant racial and cultural component to homicide rates. (For instance, approximately half of US murders are of and by African American men. Exclude African Americans, and the US basically hits the EU average)

> > Which include gun suicides, and so probably shouldn't be included here!

> No, they should be included, because gun ownership makes suicide more likely and much easier (see charts 11-13 in [2]): Most suicides are very spontaneous (see effectiveness of suicide fences) and guns make suicides quick and easy.

Europe has essentially the same overall suicide rate as the US. Regarding effectiveness of suicide fences, do they actually reduce suicides? Wikipedia seems to suggest otherwise. [0] This would seem to indicate that if suicides are in fact very spontaneous, there are other easy routes to take.

> > gun ownership rates are not as different in Europe as you'd think - US gun ownership rates are only slightly higher than those of Europe. (Not guns per capita, % of population owning guns) Most of Europe and the anglosphere ranges between 20 and 30 % gun ownership

> I couldn't find data confirming that. However, there's an interesting bit on Wikipedia on research showing the correlation between gun ownership and violence [3]. Also, this doesn't change the association between number of firearms and gun deaths: More guns also means easier access to guns. Also, owning a gun in Europe is very different: you have to meet very stringent requirements, go through various trainings, and store your guns safely.

That section doesn't say what you seem to think it says. "the highest-quality studies show that gun ownership does not increase homicide rates." "The availability of illegal guns, but not that of legal guns, is associated with higher rates of violent crime." "An international study by UNICRI researchers from 2001 examined the link ... There were no significant correlations detected for total homicide and suicide rates, as well as gun homicide rates involving male victims." "The association between gun ownership and homicide rates across nations is dependent on the inclusion of the U.S." "Studies in Canada that examined the levels of gun ownership by province have found no correlations with provincial overall suicide rates." "A 2011 study conducted looking at the effects of gun control legislation passed in Canada and the associated effects in homicide rates found no significant reductions in homicide rates as a result of legislation." "A case-control study conducted in New Zealand looking at household gun ownership and the risk of suicides found no significant associations."

Thanks for making my argument for me, I suppose?

Also, I think you might be interested in rates of illegal gun ownership in Europe - compliance rates are far lower than you'd think [1], and unregistered gun ownership rates far higher [2]. There's been tens of millions of weapons left in the dirt on that continent over the past century - were they all supposed to have disappeared into nothing? This makes the "But there are higher restrictions on gun ownership!" argument fallacious - when two thirds of the guns in Germany ignore those requirements entirely, perhaps they won't have much of an impact.

> It should be obvious that having two deranged, murderous individuals, having easier access to guns, increases the likelihood of a murder.

But it does not follow that gun control reduces the chance that deranged individuals have access to guns, among other things.

> > If you want to include countries that the US borders like Mexico, great

> I'm not sure why that should be important, but just note that it is the availability of weapons in the US, smuggled over the border, which fuels the drug war there.

Are you sure it's the availability of smuggled weapons, and not the economic incentives caused by prohibition mk 2, that fuels the violence there?

Finally, I think I should include an article of my own, as a counterbalance to that Vox idiocy: https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/06/guns-and-states/ Note that he still concludes that Australia-style gun control in the states could reduce murders/year by as much as 2000 - about 25% of gun-related homicides. But that would still leave a major homicide rate gap between the US and other western nations - because a very large component is cultural.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_barrier#Efficacy_of_su...

1: https://reason.com/2012/12/22/gun-restrictions-have-always-b...

2: https://reason.com/wp-content/uploads/assets/mc/2012_12/SAS2...