Also, this whole essay falls under the classic an quite fundamental analytical error of confusing correlation with causation, ie, startups who do "x" all wind up having success, therefore success is caused by "x".

Example - all of our successful startup founders admitted to smoking pot, therefore pot makes you successful at starting a startup.

Then the mind comes up with all sorts of sophistry to explain a possible relationship with a tentative link at best.

Example - all of our startup founders smoked pot ... must be some chemical thing that stimulates "creative thinking." And their "in the face of the man and his system" attitudes probably subconciously registered and gave them some sort of extra confidence. Yeh - that's it.

Just be careful when you follow the pied piper guys. Ever wonder what happens to guys who try and never make it? What happens to their careers? Do they go back to "Big Corp." and explain that they were "on their own" for 2 years? Most people will be jealous and snicker at them inside, thinking, "Who did you think you were, some genius or something?"

What happens to those guys. Obviously there are a lot of them. But you never hear about them. They're kept hidden. On purpose.

A professor I had once told me that the only reason people don't want socialism is because deep down inside they secretly expect that they're gonna hit the jackpot and dammit, nobody will come between them and their ferrari parked in front of their mansion full of sexy ladies.

And so we all labor on under similar secret personal delusions, each thinking that "somehow, someway ... in the end we'll prevail - because we're special that way."

And that's how the system works. Once in a while we get discouraged and read some financial porn-o-graphy about some new multi-billionaire success story to keep us sweating more and trying harder.

Only they don't tell you the part about how most of such success stories are usually deep, well-developed scams that serve other purposes.

Oracle had deep connections to intelligence agencies.

A recent (1year ago?) report by some french intelligence agency examined microsoft and concluded that it more than likely received quite a bit of help from the nsa.

Look at the charges about the connections that facebook's investors have with big brother.

And google? the "let's not be evil" company - what does it do the second it makes big money? Start offering lucrative retirement packages to attract intelligence guys to come on board.

You think all this is a coincidence? You don't think those peope have colleagues who call them up and say, "Hey - what do you think about so and so's search habits?"

Donald Trump, as fans of Rosie know, made his first "deal" at age 30 only because his billionaire father co-signed the bank loan. Then he died and left him most of his money.

His counterpart in vegas, Steve Winn, is now, as people are finding out, the "legit" clean face for the mob, which still controls vegas, though only more corporate and proper like.

Famed investing "genius" George Soros is now, as it turns out, less of a lucky genius than he is a front for a european faction of investors with very close, personal ties to the folks who decide financial policies for nations.

What do you think they discuss when these people all vacation together, the weather and whether Brad Pit and Angelina are getting back together?

No they discuss whether interest rates will rise or fall ... weeks ahead of official announcements.

THE POINT OF ALL THIS IS in the final analysis, you never know why a tech company became a big success.

Suppose you start a company where people catalogue their deepest fears and share them with each other.

You think it would be difficult to find funding for that from some VC firm with intelligence connections? If you could get people to trust you and sign up, you'd find tens of millions in first round funding over night.

Learn to think for yourselves and stop mindlessly following every pundit with a slick blog.

Just because somebody writes well doesn't mean that the info is useful. Just because they were successful 10 years ago when people were raising $100 million first round financing for a website that sells scissors to cut your dog's butt hair, doesn't mean they can do it now.

True story - some of you may remember this: 6 months before the 2000 market crash, 2 extacy potheads with rich parents raised $300 million seed financing for a site which imported sneakers and watches from europe that people who frequented nightclubs wanted but couldn't find in the U.s.

Soon they were all over FastCompany, Business 2.0, Wired, etc., blabbering for 50 page articles about "how to raise money" and "the new economy paradigm shift" this and that.

you think anybody would give those fools 50 cents these days? Don't think so.

Guy Kawasaki is very derisive and flippant about all the silly plans he gets from entrepreneurs. But what exactly has he done except become an expert at being an expert at makign every body feel he's an expert?

When you think deeply, most of these pundit blogs are nothng more then a clever, well-connected mutual admiration society where pundits all write about each other and how smart they are and link to each other's blogs and interview each other wherey they proclaim their own friends genius, etc. - As cools as giving your own forum comments props on the next forum.

Go ahead. Drop out. Look with big gleaming eyes at that facebook guy and think, "Maybe, someday, if I work hard enough and don't quit ..."

But make sure you realize that in today's world, where you'd be lucky to find a job at all that isn't on it's way to india or china or where-ever the next hot place to send US jobs is, if you don't make it ... well then what?

Try and try again.

Right. Easy for people like Bill Gates who came from a wealthy and unbelievably well-connected family (his mommy sat on the board of directors of the american cancer society, alongside the then IBM CEO --- wonder if that had something to do with his getting a meeting with them when he had no product to speak of yet?).

Easy to try and fail when you got financial backup, rich families, well-connected uncles who can help you get a job if you mess up.

But what if you don't? What if you're not one of the 1 in a thousand ... or 5 thousand who has any measurable success?

"Oh, you'll learn a lot and that will be valuable."

Try putting that on your resume and see who will care.

All I'm saying is think clearly before chasing pipe dreams and if you do it, do it because there is something really there and there's a better than average chance - not because some guy on the internet puts up glossy, emotional propoganda to give it another go.

Look at the housing market. Just a year ago you could still walk into a bank and find all these glossy, emotional posters - "Refinance now - NOW's the right time - You can afford it and we can help you afford it! Ask a representative today."

Now look what happens when euphoria hits reality.

Most of these pleas are from folks who believe that some "next big wave" is coming because Google and YouTube happened.

Google is, if you think about it, Total Information Awareness program - except its voluntary.

YouTube was a fluke.

Think carefully if your own impression of your chance of success is based on your own impression ... or one that was carefully crafted via slick PR firms and well-worded blogs.