Wow, I can’t think of a future I’d like less. Thankfully this is nonsense ;)

It is true that desktop Linux users are a niche case. Hell, I would not be surprised if that niche got smaller, even; but I have some pretty intense doubts that it’s dying or even going in that direction. In fact I would argue that the desktop platform as a whole has been on a decline, whereas desktop Linux has merely stagnated. The average user who is either gaming or just Facebooking on Windows PCs are finding increasingly less use out of their desktops. The gaming market on PC is healthy, but it’s cracking: the fragmentation of PC game stores and the increasing power and versatility of game consoles probably poses a threat in the long term. For all other use cases, mobile operating systems like iOS and Android are rapidly becoming not only usable, but preferable. Banking on my iPhone feels like the future, compared to the shoddy web UIs full of age old cruft.

So Microsoft has made wonderful strides for developers using Windows. No sarcasm here; I’ve been developing software on Windows since Visual C++6 and it’s been nothing but improvements. But I develop software for servers and browsers. The Microsoft ecosystem does not appeal to me. .NET Core is great but there’s still a lot of work to go and it’s reaching maturity in a world where we have amazing languages like Go and Rust. I have still dabbled a bit in .NET Core and I’m impressed, but they would’ve probably had more success if it had kicked off years earlier than it did.

So what’s going on with Linux? Frankly, quite a lot!

- Wayland is finally reaching maturity, slowly. For now, this is causing loads of problems, but as those issues clear up it’s looking like this might finally work out!

- Valve continues to improve Steam, with integrated Windows emulation. It’ll never be a substitute for real ports, but it’s still cool.

- The reproducibility and immutability bug has bit a few hands. New, advanced distributions like GuixSD and NixOS offer a pretty unique, extremely predictable experience (even if that predictable experience is not exactly compatible with the full range of existing software.) Fedora has rolled out OStree-based system upgrades too, which is awesome. This is one of those things where desktop Linux was really awful that is becoming a strength.

- There is apparently genuine demand for OEM Linux. We see not one, but two vendors that appear to be thriving: Purism, and System76. I want one of those darn Helios boxes just to look nice in the living room (and yes, I run Linux in the living room, and it’s been way less horrible than I would’ve imagined.)

(There’s more; like btrfs and other innovations that benefit desktop AND server use cases)

There’s more. And it goes without saying that there have also been negatives. Like graphics drivers from our green logoed friends. But by and large, I’ve had a great past decade with Linux. Aside from a small audio issue, my desktops have been free of any hardware compatibility issues throughout upgrades. Intel offers GPU passthrough that you can use in your KVM boxes for better virtualization. AMD IOMMU is reliable for nearly any Ryzen setup (got a GPU passthrough setup going great over here, and it didn’t even take a whole weekend to set up.)

Is Linux dying? Hell no. Is it the year of the Linux desktop? Also no. These claims both come up constantly and neither ever materialize. Desktop Linux has its niche and it probably will for the foreseeable future. Don’t extrapolate the ebb and flow too far.