skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Before I have seen the musings of a fund manager posted, predicting the next downturn. Apparently he’s been doing this since before the last downturn. His fund is barely above flat since inception in the early 2000s, even though the S&P has more than doubled. After pointing out all that, I still got some respondents who claimed that active funds are known to underperform during good times and outperform in bear markets. Perhaps it is true but I remember feeling skeptical.

I guess there is no evidence that will convince everyone that someone is a bad money manager or prognosticator. That’s why, despite my general discomfort with Nassim Taleb, some of what he said in Skin in the Game really seems true. People can believe what they want, but beliefs don’t matter much if they aren’t confirmed, and the only meaningful way to confirm or reject market beliefs is via investment results.
I feel like some people are too entitled. Most companies do not turn a profit and survive over extended periods of time. Most managers do not lead extraordinary teams. Most managers are not assured extraordinary careers. Why can’t we just be adults, accept that a mediocre outcome is (by definition) what we should expect, and then try to be reasonably good people? Instead these fragile egos want to torment their employees into giving them something that they were never going to get in the first place.

Now instead of a mediocre manager with a mediocre track record but an upstanding moral character and at least a respectable reputation as a human adult, you’re a mediocre manager with a mediocre track record and a depraved moral character and manipulative personality. For all I know this is leading into your personal life making your kids and wife hate you because you’re a control freak asshole. And you likely didn’t even increase your results.
While military spending is up for debate, you can't say that paying off the interest on the national debt isn't in the best interest of the American people if they still want to have a country.

The US cannot default on its debt payments that would be catastrophic to the US economy and to the world.
I think the key is sleep...
Suppose you have someone that says "amazon is overvalued, there's no way they are worth more than $400B" over and over again for years as Amazon goes from $600B to $900B. I'd still keep an open mind as long as the market in general was irrationally exuberant over that period. It's only once the market as whole returned to sanity and most stocks went down, but amazon continued to raise that I'd say that guy probably doesn't know what he's talking about.
Why does Debian ship such ludicrously old versions of software?
What third world company do we dump our trash in? AFAIK we sell it to them.
Define “private phone”. Was this a carry device or a phone you had purchased yourself? Did you access Apple confidential information on it? Did you ever use it for work purposes?
I’m not sure I follow. Unless they did something bananas with the design (which I admit is entirely possible given who designed it), the lift from the wings is transmitted to the rest of the aircraft through a spanwise spar(s). The fuselages hang off of the spar. What forces would rip that apart?
It might do?

There are 5x more white people than black people in the US (roughly). So... it's kind of understandable that any training data set would contain more white people than black people if you didn't filter it beforehand?

I guess theoretically you would have to limit the size of the training data for all groups to the size of the set of training data you have on the smallest group, so that all groups could be represented equally in the training data, but then perhaps you get a far less accurate model overall and it results in greater negative consequences?

Just spit balling here. But it's a complex problem.

The whole 'racist AI' thing screams Conway's Law to me.
> ...people (not you, I just think it's fitting) often think that being lax on credit is helping the poor or making the world a better place by some kind of self-enforced redistribution.

Is this risk not the reason interest is charged? If you want perfect enforcement of all loans, interest must go to 0, otherwise the interest is pure profit.
I never completed my degree, but even at a very math-centric CS program I don’t remember seeing a formal methods class.

OTOH my recall of a curriculum from 15-20 years ago should not be relied upon.
تحميل لعبة Paper Toss Boss رمي الاوراق في سلة المهملات رابط مباشر
In all my time working with AWS, the only thing that has been consistently horrible, has been CloudFormation. I honestly have no idea why anyone would ever choose it over Terraform, or Ansible even.
You fail at the bus and then get 100% on the bus?
This is a fantastic book. Software is written and rewritten over thousands of years, layer upon layer, powering interstellar vessels and their “automation”. It makes you wonder what Windows will look like 100 years from now, if it’s still around. Will it be easier to just write another layer on top or dig down into the original source and modify?
I think its just fighting a bit of crosswind.
Your characterization of VCs is highly inaccurate. VCs generally invest in businesses with a very low chance of success but with a high potential payout.
There's a great video that goes through this phenomenon (in the context of Youtube vs VidMe) [0]. It points our exactly that the people who adopt a new platform tend to be the people most toxic for the original. I have no idea how you get around this.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3snVCRo_bI
While it seems anecdotally true that the mathematical foundations of computer science are being downplayed in universities in favour of giving students a more practical education in software engineering, which is an entire contentious discussion in and of itself. I think that a big factor in influencing your observation could be that CS is no longer the main entry point into a career in software development. In the organisation I work in, many of the younger hires do not come from CS backgrounds, and even many of the older hires come from other scientific disciplines.
The question has nothing to do with quality.
The only reason I was able pass job interviews out of college was because of propranolol. it is a life saver
I really notice this during video games. As soon as I feel stuck/frustrated I try stop, take a 15 minute break, then quite often nail it on the first retry.
The fine probably has more to do with paying the costs of the SEC than punishing Wealthfront.

Regulatory actions don't happen in a vacuum and they aren't forgotten. Repeat actions don't necessarily get the same fine, and additional consequences (like more scrutiny for approval, more intense audits, etc) can come from ignoring regulations.

But also remember that these are large organizations being regulated in many many different and often vague ways. Violations happen and are dealt with.
Having read the book, kaycebasques' original description is one of the more accurate summaries I've come across.

There is this contingent of people who instead offer an interpretation of the book that it's somehow about proving that scientific progress doesn't happen (different from: we can't technically prove that it is, or measure it precisely).

My guess is that those are people with an axe to grind against the idea of reliable scientific progress to begin with, and perceive some kind of technical (philosophical) justification for their view in something Kuhn said in SoSR—despite the fact that main content of the book isn't even any sort of abstract philosophy, but practical comments on the social and psychological conditions of working scientists, backed by historical examples.
I think all companies that are serious about developers learning should allow them to have a separate dev account with a pretty long leash to experiment.
Exactly, that's the point I'm getting at :)
Whatabout-ism is very a good line of thought.

Moreover, a lot of this money (maybe even most) is going to the military industrial complex.
I think you’re overestimating the revenue an asset manager makes with $11b assets under management (AUM).

They aren’t a hedge fund (no profit sharing) and take .25% in fees a year. $11b *.25% is only $27.5m. Hardly a unicorn scale business IMO unless they are pitching investors they’ll get to Blackrock scale (trillion in AUM). Personally I don’t see it. Switching cost is big for existing clients but new clients have a bunch of Robo options now including free ones offered by Schwab, big banks, etc.

For some perspective, after college I worked for an investment fund with around $3b AUM with around 7-8 full time staff with a similar fee structure...it was basically a nice lifestyle company for the two founders.
I can't speak to all of them, but most save that till graduate studies if it's covered at all.
> I try and drink my 32 oz bottle once an hour when I'm working.

Seriously, how do you get any work done? Thats like a sip every 30 seconds.
Because global hegemony comes with certain responsibilities
Throw enough at the wall, some of it might stick.

People who have no reputation tend to worry less about their reputation.
Global warming itself is an externality, it's not priced by the market. If you buy into solar for example, you profit from the energy it produces (which is disjoint from global warming) and/or from the price put on global warming by a government. The developments are absolutely dependent on the ongoing doomsday hype (the world ends in 12 years you guys!), not global warming itself.

The only thing that I can see the market re-pricing in regards to global warming is land, i.e. you could buy some land in Siberia now because it will be livable in the future. However, that future is so far away it doesn't make sense to buy in this lifetime. Furthermore you could be shorting any business that depends on a stable climate.
It's definitely a very small effect. Equatorial launch sites are almost always preferable in terms of the launch itself, and the fact that most launch sites aren't smack on the equator is due to logistical or political issues.

Vaguely related, Baikonur is an interesting example of political issues. It's at 45.6 degrees latitude, but the minimum inclination it can reach is 51.6 degrees, because anything less would involve dropping boosters on China, and China is not enthusiastic about the idea.
I've used this tactic for years and sadly it's not remotely helpful for any of my websites anymore. The bots only get better over time. Many are also running PhantomJS, headless Chrome, or similar.
There are only 24 hours in a day, so how it is possible to eliminate 28 liters in 24 hours without exceeding 1 liter per hour?
It's clear that solid-fuel rockets are OK with sideways forces, because they're transported that way. The can may be weak (except re internal pressure, obviously) but the fuel/oxidizer is ~like rubbery plastic.

It's also clear that liquid-fuel rockets are OK with sideways forces, before they're loaded with fuel and oxidizer. Because they're so light. But once they've been loaded, they're very fragile re sideways forces.

I've watched lots of rocket-failure video. A ~common scenario is loss of attitude control, for whatever reason, followed by crumpling and fireball.

So I don't see how this thing could launch liquid-fuel rockets. Unless it could fly straight up, for long enough to transfer fuel and oxidizer. That'd be insane.
Agreed 100%. For companies that appear to usually be data driven, the fetish for minimalism and removal of basic UI affordances in the pursuit of style has been a bit shocking.
I am synthesizing a number of ideas from other sources in additions to adding my own experience into the design of this process
I've read a lot of comments about taking propranolol before an anxiety inducing event. I agree it is incredibly useful there. But for me, it is also useful afterwards. It causes amnesia of fear memories. Instead of having my mind race and thinking of all the small mistakes I may have made, I can think normally and actually focus on things after a tough event.
I refill my 26 oz water bottle about once every hour. It's not about sipping, I drink about a third or fourth of the bottle every time I pick it up.
I often see things about org-mode showing up on here, and I get the basic idea but I'd like to see a more in depth explanation of why it's so great.

Anyone have a recommendation for an article or video or something on the subject?
Well, TempleOS (by the late Terry Davis) was designed from scratch to support only multicore x86-64 CPUs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TempleOS
Which is a ridiculous thought. Sea levels are going to rise in the span of hundreds of years. You can move the whole city in that time span.

Cities aren't just a collection of buildings. They're like your grandfather's axe.
Recently these countries have blocked the import of the trash because it absolutely destroys these countries. The "recycling" companies buy in mountains of trash, pick out a few bits that are profitable and dump the rest somewhere. Currently only a tiny part of recyclables actually gets recycled or downcycled because the rest is cheaper to pull fresh resources out of the ground.
Why would you be stunned? They are completely separate systems.

It's like saying BigQuery and BigTable share something because they both have "Big" in their name.
I think it's just a matter of needing less fuel, which saves weight, further lowering fuel requirements. So it just makes launches cost less.

Using the rocket to get off the launchpad is wasteful. It's basically the wrong tool for the first stage but the simplicity of the approach is nice.
The quote's from me, and even in the quoted part explicitly says "if you have a privileged account". And an admin user you just need to enable it, and it works without even the proxy user configured.

Please explain what's FUD about that?

The postgres equivalent this post is about a feature that's only granted to superusers (or in recent version user that have explicitly been granted rights that are equivalent to superuser and documented as such - namely the right to directly write into any database file...).
I like the Scott Adams approach to just pre-preparing carrots and celery in small containers in your fridge. Design the system so that when you go to snack, the healthy things are what is available.

For coffee, I only add cinnamon to black coffee. No sugar.

If you like ice cream, try making it yourself, once you see how much sugar goes in a pint, you kind of get sick to your stomach about eating it.
Its also typical to look at a first world country with a low population and say they aren't the problem because india and china pollute way more without thinking about the fact that india and china pollute far far less per person than the people in first world countries.
This is something I've found true in my own personal experimentation over the past few years. Any time I've been training something, if I take a break from it, I come back and I have more skill than I had previously.

Recently this occurred with my handstand practice. It's something that I've been working on the past year or two on and off, but more heavily recently. I've made some great strides, but the past week or two I've had a number of things distract me from my normal practice.

Jumping back into it this past week, I've found my balance and strength is or order of magnitude better.

This is only a single anecdote - but I've felt it rings true every time.
I don't know, that is strange. Did you notify Katie or James?
My (completely uninformed) impression was that the germs _in_ the hospital are probably worse than than the ones as home. Because you probably don't have loads of sick people walking through your house every day.
> IMO hospitals have an over-automation problem. We need to go back to focusing on patient care rather than relying on complex systems to manage it.

This is Trump's "planes are too complicated" argument.
So instead of having a machine reading your vitals, what's the alternative? A nurse asking what is your current SpO2 and committing it to memory only?
Presumably your body uses or stores some of it.
I think the best approach is to make small reach goals. Try things just beyond your comfort zone.

When you do this, you train your mind that it was not so hard and you build confidence on each step.
Surprised to see that YouTube was second only to Facebook in sending social traffic to these SaaS cos. Was expecting LinkedIn, maybe even Twitter.
Because enough users asked for them - there was a long debate about that. It's less to prevent those users from intentionally gaining superuser, and more to make it a bit harder to unintentionally have trusted users shoot themselves into the foot. The docs say at https://www.postgresql.org/docs/current/default-roles.html#D...

"The pg_read_server_files, pg_write_server_files and pg_execute_server_program roles are intended to allow administrators to have trusted, but non-superuser, roles which are able to access files and run programs on the database server as the user the database runs as. As these roles are able to access any file on the server file system, they bypass all database-level permission checks when accessing files directly and they could be used to gain superuser-level access, therefore care should be taken when granting these roles to users."

It's not uncommon to grant users the right to change their roles into specific ones with more privileges. For business critical installations the DBA's role will e.g. often not have superuser rights itself, but the permission to do 'SET ROLE some_superuser_role; some_dangerous_command; RESET ROLE;'. And then it can be useful to allow a user to go to different rules. E.g. one that look at files for low-level debugging, but not drop tables, to prevent accidents.

Edit: #1 fight formatting, #2 explain SET ROLE practice.
> Again the fashion for extreme flatness, with square icons and buttons that disappear into the background are shown to be counter productive and user hostile.

Any sources for this? I tend to share this sentiment, but have never really read too deeply into it.

> They might "look nice" to some lead designer, but they don't work as well.

To further this, I think it is important to acknowledge too that these design decisions are not made exclusively because they "look nice." There is value in "sameness" when you are competing with other products/brands/sites that have already established a certain style, convention or pattern. After all, we learn and orient ourselves by subconsciously comparing new experiences with ones we've already had. So when you experience similar patterns in a new interface, it drastically decreases the cognitive load in learning how to use it. To your point though, there is a fine line in how effectively you can push simplicity, and there are many subtle visual variables beyond the reductionist square button that could help to improve legibility of elements as distinct components that are largely ignored in current trends.
The problem with modern hardware is that they themselves are full of backwards compatibility. And while such a system could certainly be done (as somebody said, Fuscia is probably a fairly good example of one), it will only take a few years as hardware changes and it's going to have backwards compatibility "bloat" as well!
Society will as the resulting company will pay taxes.
FWIW the only reason I’ve heard about Lambda School is because people I follow either liked, retweeted, or mentioned Lambda School so many times that I could not have heard of it.

I don’t know if there’s a name for it, but it’s basically “get your CEO and influential investors” to incessantly tweet about your company.

Not sure if it’s considered pure content marketing but a mix of content + influencer marketing.
Eternal debate.
> He avoids social media for the same reason he doesn't do crack cocaine

I love it already
I think Poor Charlies Almanac is great as it covers the mental models. It also has a wealth of life advice.

You can also subscribe to the fs blog or their podcast The Knowledge Project. They do a lot with mental models.

The book The Art of Thinking Clearly is another great book that covers biases of the mind in one to two pages each.

The Tim Ferris podcast surprisingly has some amazing guests filled with life advice. I just listened to one with Jim Collins, author of Good to Great. It was absolutely fantastic.
As soon as we figure out how to build 100+ km tall structures.
1060-hour image of the Large Magellanic Cloud captured by amateur astronomers
Scaleway cloud provider object storage unsecure
At scaleway way, one key pair can access all your object storage s3 buckets with full read write access.

When I contacted their support to ask I got this brilliant conversation, enjoy
https://twitter.com/AKamelZAD/status/1117541887710302208?s=19
> maybe truly competent developers don't get such anxiety in the first place

That's a big maybe to base these things on, and most available data seems to indicate that ability and confidence don't really correlate all that well, and even incredibly successful people struggle with mental health issues.

We don't live in some kind of a fair world where competent people are rewarded with happiness and confidence, and incompetent ones are made anxious. A casual perusal of history makes this instantly obvious.

> if you find yourself resisting the idea, take some time to reflect what, exactly, this represents that you are afraid of

Seems like you have already made up your mind and are just seeing what you want to see.

The statements you make here are not falsifiable and seem to be is-ought and wish fulfillment. They don't seem to be based on anything actually real.
There are many cases of this. And if you want to travel, you have to keep this in mind.
Part of the problem is that it's nigh impossible to make money on simply providing useful information. People use ad blockers, they find ways around pay walls, they scoff at the idea that writing good information is real work worth actual money.

I've blogged for years. It doesn't make adequate income to support me. I get all kinds of flak from people who tell me to "get a real job" rather than helping me find some means to get traffic, develop a good niche and monetize it.

I also work for a writing service as a way to help pay my bills. I try to write stuff I can feel good about, but the reality is I am sometimes guilty* of adding to the kind of online "spam" that gets routinely decried as having ruined the internet.

I would prefer to be "part of the solution, not part of the problem." But it mostly doesn't pay to try to write high quality information with no pay wall, no product you are shilling, etc.

We have designed an internet where the only way to make money for the information you write is to be selling something else. And then we complain endlessly about the lack of quality information.

Pointing out the obvious connection between these various things mostly gets me grief. People want excellent information available online for free and they just refuse to see how and why that's a broken mental model.

If you want an internet where you can find good writing whose only goal is to provide good information for the reader without selling you something, then find some way to make it profitable and worthwhile for people to do that.

* To be clear, I don't feel guilty. I don't think it's morally wrong. I think what's morally wrong is the vast majority of people expecting excellent content to be completely free. That is a de facto expectation of slave labor from content producers.

In practical terms, we are incentivizing the creation of the kind of content that gets decried as low value "spam" and disincentiving the creation of independent, quality content.

"You get what you pay for." This is what pays. I've gotta eat.

(shrug)