skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Nice posts.

I've nearly completed a PhD in engineering. A while back I decided that academia is likely a dead end unless you win the lottery. If the adjunct situation won't improve until people stop taking those jobs, I'll do my part. I'd like to periodically teach a class or two, but I would never adjunct as my sole source of income.
I was driving about 3mph in traffic texting my wife and did 3500 dollars damage to my car. I'm glad I learned my lesson the easy way instead of killing someone.

Don't text and drive no matter what, it's easy to pull over if it's necessary!
There are two cases dealing with a directly analogous issues about to come up for argument in front of the Supreme Court of Canada.

The AG of Canada has taken the position that they're immune to copyright and can do whatever they want. By contrast, some amicus filings indicate they want these types of documentation to fall within the public domain.

It'll be interesting to see what solution is adopted, but I believe that there's a more intellectually-consistent, scaleable solution which is not in front of the courts that addresses the issues directly and with minimal fall-out to other stakeholders. Unfortunately, I only caught the ear of a few of the counsel after their filings were already done, so I don't think the proper solution will even be in front of the court.

That said, there's plenty of hope, and I'm glad the issue is in front of the courts. I do, however, find it strange that UpCodes settled while the founders were named directly but not included in the settlement.
Well sure. But every piece of software doesn't need to cater for low power computers.
But that's just nonsense. If something happened yesterday that has people all hot and bothered today but which nobody will give a shit about anymore by the time the next election rolls around, Silver should say "nobody will give a shit about this anymore by the time next election rolls around." Giving a numerical value of how it would effect the election if it were to happen tomorrow is gibberish on the level of "if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon".
I've mailed with an MP who wanted this legislation. She admitted the automatic filters are de facto required as there are no better options available. This was unfortunate. She expressed hope that smart people would step up and find a better solution.

So basically the people who voted for this law disagree with you.
New data shows London's property boom is a money laundering horror
I just don't get it. Where does the money go? Students pay ridiculous amounts for tuition, while schools try to get away with being as cheap as possible by hiring adjuncts, using ridiculously cheap food vendors, giving less and less aid, etc. For regular corporations I'd cite shareholders and profitability, but nominally, schools don't have that. Some people cite administration, but I'm not entirely sure of that either. Even the president gets paid maybe 4 million tops, which is 100 students tuition. And schools did just fine 50 years ago with less than a quarter of the tuition.

My current theory is that administrators have figured out a way to get money out of the school in some form and are squeezing it like cash cows. Or they're just horribly mismanaging schools.
Wow. TechCrunch is hijacking the back button on mobile in a really bad way. After opening the link I see 5+ entries in my browser history, meaning I have to use the back button really a lot to go back to HN!

What a great way to make me feel I shouldn’t have agreed to the the Oath screen ...
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Thankfully the time i took down the high school's network using a looping bat file that opened looping NetSend commands to the entire domain the teacher of the CCNA class I was in thought it was hilarious and more of a shame on him than a shame on me.
Per Wikipedia [1]: "In the context of Internet access, broadband is used to mean any high-speed Internet access that is always on and faster than dial-up access over traditional analog or ISDN PSTN services."

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadband
Would it be enough to change any verbiage and keep all the numbers/measurements and formulas the same?
Nuclear Powered Planes
You _briefly_ used both of these and found JetBrains to be _personally_ better, then follow up by asking why not just use
a "good IDE?"

The simplest response with a similar level of effort is - I disagree with you and find VS Code to be an effective IDE.
I think they need a a number of migrating upwards 'paths', so natural expanding upwards footprint in several areras is needed
If your system doesn't have anything to gracefully handle inter-component communication without coding custom adapters and introducing new dependencies, all your "reusable" components will become a legacy mess in 2-5 years.
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Startup Options
The visualization is good, IMHO there's a lot of room for improvement though. There's a big issue which undermines the credibility of the whole report:

- Venezuela has a Cantril Ladder value of 6.2577.

That's very strange to say the least, and it's hard to believe to be honest. Venezuelans are one of the most unhappy, miserable people in the world.
As someone who works in the amorphous realm of "digital strategy", I was pursuing this exact "learning path" by deploying my personal website on Digital Ocean, where your droplet is a blank slate, and you have to configure everything.

Given the number of help threads and spotty documentation I had to look through to deploy a simple Wordpress site, I'd say it was more of a hassle than anything else. Unless you plan on doing this several more times, at which point you'd likely have worked the kinks out, stick with deepening your knowledge in an existing area of proficiency.
>If over time, your forecasts predictably change, then they are not the best forecasts you could make with the information on hand.

And this is precisely the complaint Taleb is making.

An arbitrage is just a strategy that's guaranteed to make money. If you know for sure that something will go up and down at different points you could make money risk free. Simply buy at any point below the current price and sell at any point above.
Chinese manufacturers make it sooo attractive to send it all over there. Low to zero up front costs including development amortized across so many units as to be lost in the parts cost. It's only when you ask for the molds and IP that you find out your product is not your own.
> She had a number of ailments that bothered her—her asthma, her heart—and the rigors of being an adjunct added to them.

> Two deaths occurred back to back. First, Cooper, her companion. Then, a few months later, her mother, Grace.

> If Thea had a tenure-track job and access to proper health insurance to be appropriately diagnosed, she might still be alive, they said.

The factors in her death -- work stress, health issues, life tragedies, and a lack of health insurance -- don't seem more strongly linked to the job of adjunct professor than to any other low-status job.
You’re describing it as income differences of 1000x. Right now it’s more like 25x although the 1% does hold about 90% of the existing wealth.

The problem is that this kind of thing can’t last long. For many reasons. Affording things means you can pay for the materials, labor, and markup that went into it. If everyone makes $200k, you can’t afford labor costs for anything produced domestically. You can import foreign workers, but then you’ve broken the constraints of the system and suddenly people are poor.
Maybe this was true of past elections, but their 2018 house forecast had a “how this forecast has changed” section that showed their historical predictions throughout election season. It’s still visible here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-f...
Reminds me of my IRC client.
Agreed. I think for most people here the risk is the indecision rather than the wrong decision. For a lot of people there's a deathly fear of ending up under a bridge, and while that's undoubtably true for many people unfortunately, I'd wager most people here have a lot more runway than they'd think even.
Yes their watch was okay but their software sucked. I think it's more likely China has spies within Huawei rather than Huawei being a literal intelligence operation. American engineers generally balk at inserting backdoors, why wouldn't Chinese engineers?
I had never heard of keeping your receipt with your beer until visiting a liquor store in Alberta. Apparently its common to confiscate beer lacking a receipt, as its assumed to be from another province? Seems very silly, but my perspective is skewed as a Seattleite ($25 fine for drinking in public that is rarely enforced).
Animals in hard science -- that reminds me of the "Always Mount a Scratch Monkey" story: https://edp.org/monkey.htm (it did NOT end well).
i thought more of a technical argument, if this comment is based on stuff like "Event A and not A are both extremely likely".

I also think that both of your examples are not really useful, they don't violate the laws of probability. What a good chance is depends on more things than just the raw probabilities, for example i could phrase a ticket with a good chance as E(reward - price) > 0 (so its independent of its actual probability).

I don't consider "Event A and not A are both extremely likely" as P(A) != 0.5, communicating probabilities is not a mathematical problem, especially if words like "extremely" are used. Maybe P(A)=0.3 might also be extremely likely for your target audience.

Using your argument...what's a good chance of dying? It depends on the interpretation of the layperson and needs carful wording.

I remain faithful that his actual models are sound.
>I've often found Taleb's ideas to be profound and interesting

Really? Because financial crashes happen a lot more regularly than black swans. This seems like par for the course for Taleb; I've never read him in depth but he always seemed like a memer.
the establishment is always looking for a propaganda hook to exploit for more revenue
She Survived a Slave Ship, Civil War and the Depression: Her Name Was Redoshi
He didn't expose flaws. They caught him.
Yes. My favorite example of that is risott, since that's something that people actually commonly order in restaurants.

Then there's also things like tirami-sue vs tirami-zoo, which don't even make sense since the dessert wasn't invented until recently.
The illusion of government power starts young.
Only Americans need a tank on the road.
Weight is a big problem when you want to travel far.
In a perfect world, the electric car is not the solution, we should aim for electric scooter, moped, bicycle, ... for our daily travels.
Behind the process of Helvetica’s 21-century facelift
I am from Alberta and have never heard of this. Did this happen to you?
I'm glad to see that it seems the student in question was afforded a measure of process and admitted guilt -- I could easily see the story ending where the weaker opponent casts fake votes for their competition to get them eliminated!
This is a case where big companies are fighting against other big companies, so this argument is moot.

Automated content filtering is a required part of the requirements. It is not enough. But neither is human moderation.

Besides. If human moderation would cost less than filtering, big companies would choose that alternative. Instead, they are now able to sell filter access to small companies. So money flows from small to big companies.
UpCodes cofounder here. I'd be interested to hear your solution. Also, can you link to the Canadian case? I'm curious.

In terms of the ASCE settlement, it included us, so the settlement was between ASCE, UpCodes, Inc., and both cofounders.
Exactly. The "hacker mindset" only protects us from scams that aren't specifically marketed towards us. Like bitcoin and all other crypto currency for example.
But, in the same breath, these are the same institutions that have the highest compliance requirements. It seems crazy that when I get these random vendor questionnaires they require such strict password requirements, yet financial institutions aren't included in adhering to these best practices.
Someone betting Taleb-style would have an edge over someone directly betting on Silver's forecast numbers, but technically that's not arbitrage -- arbitrage in the sense of the article means a strategy with guaranteed return, not just very probable. Is that right? So my impression is that this is an argument about words, where traders mean 'arbitrage' more broadly.
It appears you need to do some research on the role of central banks and the federal reserve, goals of the money supply, etc. That's not accurate, that's not how it works. The reason we create more money is two-fold.

(1) There are more people now. Not creating money disproportionately benefits the people who were alive before you. If you print no new money, the amount of wealth you have doubles as a proportion of the population when the population doubles. As economic activity increases and becomes more efficient you can do even more with that money. This pressure creates wealth inequality over time -- this is in part what the pilgrims sought to escape as they fled the old world of kings/queens/fiefs/lords.

(2) A predictable rate of inflation incentivizes the allocation of capital to productive endeavors. If your money just became more valuable over time, why on earth would you risk it by investing in something when you can just sit back, chill and be rich? That's why Bitcoin is a god-awful currency. Nobody wants to spend it because they think it will "mewn soon."

The federal reserve doesn't print money, the treasury does. They didn't create money to offset Chinese loans, they sold treasuries (debt obligations) to China, which in turn yielded money. You know what, I won't do as good a job as this article will explaining it to you [1], entitled "Understanding How the Federal Reserve Creates Money."

That all said none of this matters to you, a savvy investor with assets, because you shouldn't hold money. It's not intended to be held, it's meant to be circulated. Go buy things with it, that's what it's for. It can't depreciate in your hands if you've bought something with it. Salaries track inflation, housing tracks inflation, debts don't, so your principal goes down in real-world dollars over time. If you live paycheck-to-paycheck you're totally unaffected.

I'm starting to think the solution to Bitcoin is forcing everyone to attend civics and economics classes.

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081415/under...
This is taken as an obvious truth, but when you look at actual collision data, there seems to be no effect whatsoever.

In fact, our roads have continued to become safer in the 10 or so years since the release of the iPhone.
The 2016 election predictions are still posted.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/...
This is "old man yells at cloud" area, but seriously - why can we not just leave our phones in our pocket until we get to our destination? What's that important?
There are better issue trackers, but the target market almost certainly has a Github account, and is searching for things on Github (rather than Google). Hence not hosting it on Gitlab or Bitbucket.
Was it definitely 320 when you wrote this comment? It says 350 now. Hopefully because people bought it.
Been using it for a while. Fits perfectly for every day use, except it lacks searching feature present on official client
MIT Prof: It's More Likely We're Living in a Simulation Than Not
https://outline.com/mVmCFX
So... I wrote this. Maybe I can clarify a little what I meant by the statement "Since Silver’s forecasts begin with probability models, it’s safe to assume they obey all the rules, including Bayes’, and would be arbitrage-free.", since this seems to be confusing some people:

What I'm addressing here is Taleb's claim that Silver's probabilities would allow for arbitrage (i.e., riskless profit, not just profit on average) if turned into betting prices. This is in the sense of arbitrage-through-time, buying low and then selling high. As I discussed in the piece, an old argument due to de Finetti says that if prices are arbitrage-free they must satisfy the equations of probability, meaning you can in some sense think of the price as giving a probability of the outcome. For time-dynamic arbitrage the relevant equation is Bayes' Theorem. All I meant by my statement above is that the converse to de Finetti's argument is also true, trivially. If prices obey the equations of probability they are automatically arbitrage-free. And since Silver's probabilities begin life as probabilities, they satisfy all the relevant equations (one would expect).

Technically, the way we'd express this in modern finance is through the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, which says a (complete) market is arbitrage-free if and only if there exists an equivalent measure under which asset prices are martingales. Silver's probabilities are necessarily martingales, just because of the way conditional probability math works, so unless Taleb can claim that his and Silver's probabilities aren't equivalent, meaning they disagree on what events have probability zero, then there is no chance of arbitrage. That's just the mathy way of saying the same thing I said in the post.

There are many other possible errors Silver could be making, and many other possible criticisms Taleb could have made but did not. In this case he wrote a paper claiming a mathematical result that just isn't true.

Hope that's helpful!
Oh and I forgot: another problem why this doesn't work very well: brands like to control their appearance. When it's their brand guidelines vs your black box optimization function which is backed by data, their brand still has priority. Your AI will also be blamed for the failure of their advertising even if it's a problem with their brand, product, sales, whatever.
What is your area?
Sorry that happened. Thanks for sharing.

What damage on your vehicle caused the high cost of repairs? Just surprisingly high for a 3~ MpH impact.
There's two kinds of REST. REST as most developers misunderstand it, and REST as Roy Fielding, inventor of REST, understands it.

For the former you can read the Microsoft REST guidelines, for the latter I suggest getting Mike Amundsen's RESTful Web APIs book.

If you do go with the latter be prepared for a lot of frustration with those who went with the former.
A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week. - George S. Patton

I think about this quote a lot. It's so easy to get trapped in analysis paralysis which is really just procrastinating a decision. Like most things, there is a balance. Notice he says 'good' plan, not any plan.
I worked at T-Mobile and did some work on this very subject our studies showed that people are so addicted that unless there is a threat of jail time or drivers license suspension people will not put down their phones.
Curious about this.

> It's how you can prove all non-Bayesian models are irrational

Can you expand or link?

> Error bars and spreads are already outside the Bayesian paradigm, which demands a single number

Not following at all. What do you mean?
Third-party Discord clients violate the TOS. The company considers them to be self-bots, which also violate the TOS.
It depends on what kind of customer you are looking for.

Low cost methods won't stay low cost because competition will move in.
Antstream: Retro Gaming Reborn
this new world of connectedness really has some major downsides.

distracted driving.

instagram killing natural spaces from lack of crowd control.

decreased mental wellbeing and increased suicide rates.

facebook privacy concerns.

somebody needs to tackle these social crises, since the incentive is not there for the companies to address it themselves.
> it's an arms race

I can echo that, which is why I doubt that neither advertising nor design can become fully automated by AI

I could see 2 things happening in this space:

1) AI may make ordinary advertising more accessible for smaller budgets

It'd be similar to bootstrap or material design, in that they help non-design-driven products with not looking obviously cheap. But after adoption of said frameworks, products will look more alike. Hence the need for differentiation to gain more attention.

2) Given the said need for differentiation most revenue lies in the combination of inputs by humans and AI.

For example when given the fundamental parameters that define a brand's design language, an AI could iterate on that to churn out new designs that continue this language with the human fine tuning the direction.

An AI then could also deliver options of where to steer the design language in general, e.g. for car-designs:

a) add an aston-martin-like front grill (go with the general trend)

b) do the exact opposite of a)

c) allow just small changes to current design language and never mind the competitors

etc.
It's configurable in the web version. More of a TV-with-closed-software problem.
Could you supply said data? Also, in what way is it safer? Less collisions? Less damage? Less fatalities?
Based on limited knowledge, once all the coins are mined, I think the miners then compete for transaction fees only.

>mining would eventually become too computationally expensive

I don't think that's true, the difficulty adjusts every two(?) weeks based on the hashrate.
It opened the system setting for me. I didn't approve it though, so the default didn't switch. However I do confirm it pinned itself to the taskbar, which is somewhat intrusive. It certainly isn't the conventional thing for Windows apps, and I'm not sure if there's much to win by doing this, really...
> the average reader is just going to see the probabilities and run with that

The putative “average reader” who does so will see the default view, which is a forecast, not the nowcast, which you must actively shift to in order to see.

> and 538 does have some responsibility to actively explain things upfront in their UI,

Like, on the view selector that you have to use to choose the nowcast instead of the default forecast, where the nowcast is described as “Now-cast / Who would win the election if it were held today”.

I think they have that covered.