The death of Docker could potentially happen, but not for the reasons the author lays out. The last argument in the article is interesting. The author implies because RHEL dropped Docker - then game over. But if we want to analyze this it isn't because Docker lost a technology battle. It's because RHEL is protecting their ecosystem. The article is correct in making the case there is choice. However the author doesn't put two and two together with regard to RedHat. Just because you can alias podman with docker doesn't really mean anything. Someone seems to have dipped into the non-reality of Docker-is-a-bad-word, by author Dan Walsh of RedHat. Also keep in mind containerd was contributed by Docker and is the graduated runtime in CNCF. You definitely don't need Docker to run containers. But it's easy to use Docker to run and build. And Docker is still a one line installation on all Linux platforms (https://get.docker.com)

Next is Docker Enterprise. Can they sell it? This is where Docker is making mistake after mistake IMO. Docker does have a leg up in Windows. But does it matter? Today Swarm is your only orchestration option and while I understand k8s support is coming it still remains to be seen if GMSA is included in the first release (doubtful). If you're a Windows developer and you're deep in the Microsoft ecosystem, you won't be able to productively use Windows Server and k8s this year is my guess given the timelines.

Regardless, Docker has done a poor job capitalizing on Windows. Maybe it's that people just don't need it as much as Docker would have you to believe? Or maybe it's too jarring of a workflow change. Regardless, it isn't working.

Next is the products you get for the money: Docker Universal Control Plane (UCP), Docker Trusted Registry (DTR) and Docker Enterprise Engine (EE).

They're all OK. But the sell is, again, tough. UCP is basically a dashboard for centralizing RBAC for Swarm and UCP in the enterprise, and don't get me wrong - the enterprise needs this. But UCP feels lacking. The UI is distracting and has a lot of oddities. Managing it is a decent amount of work. It's just OK. Also Docker UCP still doesn't support k8s PaaS while competitors do. Remember that Docker hired Kal De away from VMW as CTO. In his time at Docker not much has changed externally, but Docker needs to move faster. Much faster.

DTR is interesting because everyone who's doing containers in the enterprise needs an image repository with, again, those enterprise requirements. And DTR delivers this, but Docker doesn't want to sell you DTR only. You can't buy DTR by itself like it's competitors. Docker wants you to only use all of their bits and it's dumb because Docker claims choice as a core pillar then tries to lock you into UCP+DTR+EE. Oh I see Steve... Choice as in what DOCKER defines for me as choice. Choice of bare metal or hypervisor, but not how I manage containers and orchestration? Back to DTR: it's decent, but again there are other choice and a lot of them are better standalone offerings.

Finally EE. There are about three reasons you really need EE. The first is enterprise support and long term releases. The second is runtime enforcement of signed images at the engine level. The third is oddities like FIPS support. But that's it. And, again, Docker doesn't want you to buy just Engine. They want to sell you the 'platform'.

At the end of the day Docker has good products. They're not exceptional when taken into context of other enterprise software. They're just OK. Docker doesn't realize this yet from what I've gathered. They have recently changed pricing to very VMW-esque CPU count pricing. And Docker doesn't have the market capital to make that leap, unfortunately. At the end of the day my opinion is that Docker is marred by Docker. Not by the competitive landscape. Yes, that contributes to Docker overall but Docker doesn't seem to make sure they have the best product above everything else. Docker's CEO, Steve Singh, is the wrong guy for the job. He is constantly stating cash flow positive by end of this fiscal year yet doesn't seem to care about how good or bad the product actually is or why people wouldn't buy Docker over something else.

So yeah... Docker has done great things. Those great things are all of the contributions Docker has made to the community and continues to do so. But Docker on the enterprise side feels weak, lackluster and very confused. Docker is marred by Docker management and executive ranks from within. I'll give them 2 years make or break and I think, as it stands today it's a coin flip. The acquisition of RedHat by IBM was a good thing for Docker, but may be the nail in the coffin for RHEL long term. If Docker does flounder any longer look for them to be acquired by Microsoft. And then... Docker will be set to sail off into the ether.