skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> IMO, In the next 5 years or so, and somewhere between 0.1 and 1 ExaFlop, we'll probability hit human-level AI.

That is a mighty big prediction to just throw around so easily. Do you have any material to back that claim?

In my humble opinion, we are nowhere near general AI, let alone something on the human level. For all intents and purposes, even the most sophisticated NN models used and built these days are "dumb" when compared to biological intelligence.

It's not even clear whether general intelligence is an emergent property of all complex neural networks, or if there is some other secret sauce that is required. Having such fundamental question unanswered and yet claiming that in just 5 years we will be capable of matching the highest level intelligence we are currently aware of seems very bold to me.

Had you said something at least a bit more nebulous like 50 or a 100 years, one could take a bit of a leap of faith and posit that a massive breakthrough will happen that will give us insight into how to build proper AI, as opposed to what is curve fitting with ever more parameters.

I'm not saying that curve fitting with ever more parameters cannot eventually reach human level intelligence, but so far there is zero indication that it can.
Maybe you just don’t understand them yet.
Sigh. Someone has a book to sell by going against conventional wisdom, and the classic approach of taking a small trend and drawing a huge long straight line through it. It's not really surprising that this has happened, given the extent of efforts to reduce birth rates as a way out of poverty.
Jamf Doubles Down on Education, Acquiring ZuluDesk
Allen Institute debuts AI that plays Pictionary-like games to learn common sense
Previous discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19000756.
You are correct - the company is not your friend. Senior management has a responsibility to look out for the shareholders' interests. They are also human and look out for their own interests. That said, treating people the way you want to be treated has a positive effect on your little corner of the company.

My management treated me well when it was in their power to do so. I survived for 36 years in a company that had multiple downsizings, sometimes 2 a year in the last 15 years. Our workgroup supported each other the best we could. We still get together for lunch periodically. Ross Perot's "great sucking sound of jobs leaving the country" occured on my watch. We just had to deal with it the best we could.

I was much happier and productive when I realized that it was best to be thankful for the good parts of my work and that sometimes you go through situations that suck. That's life...
> bitPatreon and SubscribeStar will have to compete on attracting Patreon's artists off Patreon

They won't have to when Patreon actively tries to shove them away themselves.
What is unified ecosystem management?
I also find it annoying. I copy the URL into threadreaderapp, and it is much clearer

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1092846201374892032.html
SRE Is to DevOps What Scrum Is to Agile?
Sustainable business is a very poor choice of words for a VC to use in this context. Your investment doctrine might require companies to pursue 10X growth or die trying, but... that means your investment model is not about sustainability (of the businesses you invest in). The businesses could be perfectly sustainable.

A startup is not necessarily guided by sustainability. Amazon lost money for decades. FB never bothered to make money until their IPO. They were not pursuing sustainability at those points. They were betting on growth.
Honestly? Yeah I'm fine with it. Even makes me think better of them.

That tirade isn't any sort of reasoned political argument, it's a hate-laden diatribe showing off some awful underlying attitudes.

It's not 'enforcing morality', it's deciding not to do business with someone. That individual can do what they like, free speech is preserved, but they have no god-given right to use someone else's platform to raise money.
I can transfer €10 from my bank account to any European bank account at no cost in real time.

You can't really do that in the US so Patreon has to exist. Like the only alternative is mailing a check. And god only knows when a world wide banking system will be realized.
This problem doesn't seem to be limited to free services or smaller companies. Mailing list stuff sent via Mailchimp often gets caught by my spam filter, and many Mailchimp IPs are on various blacklists used by spam filter software.

Not really surprising when some companies surely are using services like Mailchimp to send spam - depending on your definition of spam.
Silencing them by what means, exactly?
What's the primary thing the employee gives the employer? Work.

What's the primary thing the employer gives the employee? Money.

I think it's reasonable when one party decides to end the relationship, that they keep providing that primary thing for a period of time to make the transition more orderly.

That makes notice periods and severance periods logically equivalent in my book. The company can show you the door immediately (if they want), but as long as they pay you severance for a period of time, they've held up their end. (I've never seen zero severance in the tech industry unless a company is literally out of money or in the case the employee is being fired "for cause" (typically meaning sexual harassment, or theft/embezzlement, etc, not mere incompetence or laziness.)
Some tips. Take things one at a time. Do them with all the attention. Have breaks in between. Spend time outside with loved ones. When you sleep, leave everything aside as if you enter a new world where nothing matters. If you cannot complete something today at the normal pace, do it the following day. Have a broader plan and idea, but keep inching towards it without fixing deadlines.
Yeah I do. Nazis can fuck off, and anyone who allows them on their platform is a collaborator.
Learn by Doing [Volume 40]: Definitive Guide to Using Serverless with Terraform
> If you care about privacy and speed and maximum memorability, I recommend CloudFlare

I disagree with the speed part, because cloudflare doesn't support EDNS. This is great for privacy but not for speed.

Here is proof: https://pastebin.com/raw/QnbWXU1a

If he meant speed in the DNS resolution context, I somewhat agree with him.
What I didn't see mentioned in the article is the 3rd possibility: that the population will grow but eventually reach a stable plateau. I don't know the number (<12 bil maybe) but this was argued by Hans Rosling.

Can any demographers weigh in?
No, but it is true that groups with higher birth rates in spite of having middle class lifestyle tend to be religious.

there are lots of stupid, impulsive religious zealots with quiverfuls. But also a lot of wonderful, loving religious folks with quiverfuls.

I wish there were more other types who had a birthrate above replacement, but outside of religious circles, having more than 2 kids is rare and even considered uncouth.

If lots of couples have 1 or no kids and lots of people aren't even in couples, then we're going to need a LOT of people having 3 or more kids. But we aren't. Especially among the non-religious.

It could be that in the future, religion is a social trait selected for because it leads to higher birth rates.

I haven't seen a lot of introspection on this idea that doesn't quickly verge into, um, questionable rhetoric, and I'd like to see a lot more of it.
Tesla's deceptive price advertising is infamous. I love the cars, but the company is shady as hell. No repairing your own car. Deceptive used car sales practice. Misleading autopilot function and naming. The list is huge but the fanboys are rabbid. Can we not sell a better car without usurping the rights of the owner? I think we can. But we need to stop allowing bad practices because of environmental promises.
I haven't heard of a specie disapearing primarily because it didn't have enough babies.

Even the giant panda, before arriving to this situation, had seen their forests devasted by us.

So at best, I expect our specie to mess up in some big ways, then maybe, the finish blow will be reproduction.

Yet I doubt it.

First, other threats have a way higher likelyhood. India has no water, terrible social tension, instable border situations and the nuclear bomb. We killed 60% of the insects. There are microparticules of plastic everywhere in the oceans. Not to mention climat change, our mad scientist attitude towards everything, and the systematic conversion of limited natural assets into short term cash machines.

Second, fertility is something we have been working on for some time now, and our mad, but smart, scientists are pretty good at it.

Lastly, I even doubt that natural fertility will ever be a permanent problem. Nature has cycles to regular species population, and may impose on us some drastic mesure, but like all cycles, it goes back to where it was.
Please don't. It's an important feature for a lot of people (me included).

Just ignore it when checking uniqueness, if you really must
I'm almost 35 and have had the same experiences. My internal threshold for believing that I "know something" is set far higher than it was when I was in my 20s. And, for certain, I've tackled problems of greater complexity in the last 5 years than had ever been placed before me during my "best thinking years." I've even kept, and returned to, a couple of papers I wrote during college. I was very impressed with them when I wrote them, but in recollection they're very simple and naive, but embarrassingly confident given those limitations.

Although I do feel slower mentally, any impact in actual output has been more than offset by the improved patience and impulse control that comes with age. Perhaps some folks out there had great impulse control when they were 23, but not me. The topics I handled from 30-34 would have been impossible for me at 20-24: They were too intimidating, took too long to learn, required that I had to accept that I couldn't grasp them easily or quickly, required longitudinal and short-term focus. (ie, not only sticking to topic for 8 hours a day, but also sticking to the overall effort for 4-5 years.)

To the parent post, I guess this is a long-winded way of saying that you shouldn't worry so much about it. You'll never be in your 20s again, and when you're in your 30s and 40s things will feel "normal." If you're not slowing down by 30 and 40, then don't worry: you'll eventually slow down at 50, 60, 70, etc. There are phases to life that you can't return to. You'll feel differently about them in hindsight than you felt during the time, so in some sense your fears may be moot.
Warran Buffet did indeed have a couple million USD when he was in his 30s, back 55 years ago when a couple of million were worth around 20 million in today's money. Measured in today's money he probably had 2 million at some point in his mid/late 20s. He became a billionaire at 50-something.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/378439/net-worth-of-warr...

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=2400000&year1=...
Thanks for writing this. Really enjoy your writing style and hope you continue to write more!
Was James Brown and his third wife murdered?
That might be it. I'll give it a check later today but I am walking out to the trail. I'd have hoped since I have the playlists downloaded that it wouldn't matter.
Security researcher demos MacOS Keychain exploit without sharing with Apple
I'm not arguing for or against censorship in any particular manner. Merely that if SubscribeStar/bitPatreon want to compete with Patreon they will have to appeal to more than freedom of speech moral stance, since the majority of Patreon's artists are already either within Patreon's moral stance, benefit from the moral stance, or do not apply to this matter entirely.
navigate by stars and moon and position of the sun vs chronometers vs gps?
This is the same argument that has been used for decades and centuries to worry about population explosion, though. Was that mere book selling? We've now seen a trend of below replacement in places like Japan lasting for decades now, and they've luckily been able to change their society to be more welcoming to immigrants in order to compensate, but that only works if there are countries with higher birth rates to compensate.
Show HN: Ryeboard 0.95 – A Personal Workplace for Your Ideas
You can assume that the companies selling off email data are smart enough to do the entirely trivial "remove + sign to @ sign" transformation for gmail addresses, at least partly because their job tends to be tracking you across a large amount of domains.
I think there's a documentary you might enjoy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy
Not as useful as `firstnamelastname+twitter@gmail.com` for example :/
Yeah, he seems to be a pretty hateful, nasty person based on what has been reported, though I’ll admit I’ve never watched / listened to any of his stuff. I think the concern is that if Patreon becomes a sort of moral police, then it gives them huge power over the purse-strings of creators. Sam Harris and others don’t like that idea, for understandable reasons. Sam and Joe Rogan and others get labeled “alt-right” a lot by people who don’t like the discussions they’re willing to have.

The problem is that even after removing oneself from patreon, there is still a large company in charge of one’s payments ... a credit card company. Would Visa or MasterCard do the same under heavy social media or political pressure? Probably. So how would someone effectively mitigate this funding threat? Cryptocurrency maybe, if it was more stable and widely used.
If it costs $55,000 but you'll save $20,000 on gas over the lifetime of the car, you -could- say the effective price is $35,000.

(I wouldn't but I'm not in marketing or sales.)
That has to be the worst idea of the year. You are essentially blocking perfectly valid emails on the assumption that one single email provider uses the + character with some special meaning. Congratulations, that's how you break the internet.
Also a shame it only works if you’re white.

(Based on my thankfully limited experience plus https://www.reddit.com/r/hitchhiking/comments/41bbde/hitchhi...)
> it probably needs an exuberant amount of time

EVE can actually be played very casually. The grind is for money, but you can supplement that with real money. I know that sounds really bad in a world where every mobile game is a P2W nightmare, but it works for EVE. You cannot P2W EVE. Most people don't use real money, once you get to a point where you understand most of the game it's not really required. The only significant time sink Eve requires is learning how it works because it's an extremely complex game.

EVE has a really good Free to Play system in place and I definitely recommend checking it out.

I would not suggest getting an account then trying to throw a bunch of money at it until you really understand what that money is used for. We once killed a new 15 day old player who was flying high end implants that buffed their shields, in a ship that was armor tanked. In real money terms we probably blew up $40 that they were using completely incorrectly. There were 3 of us flying a total of less than $5 worth of real money ships. It's a very unforgiving game, but most players are nice to new players and we ended up giving that person a lot of advice on what they did wrong, what they can do to fix it, and which direction they needed to go to get better. We throw money at newbies often if we kill them, but since this one was flying several times more than our entire fleet we figured it was pointless. To put it into perspective, I've been playing for about 4yrs total spread across 14 and the most expensive thing I've flown cost about half as much as what this person was flying.

For the other payers: it was a full High-Grade crystal set in a blingy Apoc we found ratting in a Haven, so you know he was injected too. Almost 7b total on zkill.
Substantial power in the equipment viewable in the image of the private "mission control" room, on far right hand side of image . . .
RISC OS SouthWest Show 2019
The component renders any time the setWhatever function is called, similar to this.setState() in class components. The presumption is anything that you're storing in state is depended on by the component. If it's not, it doesn't make sense to have it in state anyway.
In the long run more agreeable (in a Big 5 sense) people have more children and agreeableness is fairly heritable so don't expect the decline in birth rates to last forever.

https://hopefullyintersting.blogspot.com/2018/05/falling-fer...
Exercise first thing every single day will do a person wonders. I prefer heavy weights and biking, but those are not the only ways to work out. I do think it needs to be at least 30 minutes of strenuous activity though.
> The transition to open plans and standing desks has been a boon for social interaction in teams, more role-crossover, and just more physical movement in general.

Two thirds of these qualities (social interaction/role crossover) are exactly what I don't want when trying to program.

In my experience, companies where social interaction/role crossover are required aren't working on any complex problems.
The (funny) classic reference being:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16422686

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16429640
Show HN: I built a SaaS Kit for Node.js to help startups launch faster
Urban Pollinator Hotspots Alleviate Threats to Bee and Butterfly Populations
While I don't know how much Facebook needs to exist, it isn't zero. All those server have to be bought - just like Toyota can get a loan to build a new factory, facebook can get a loan to build servers and the building to put them in (note can, in both cases there are non loan options for funding as well). Facebook needs to pay people to wire all those servers up. Facebook needs to pay people to mitigate all the attacks on their servers. Facebook needs to pay power bills for those servers. The CEO doesn't get to decide any of the above costs - they are what they are and not paying them will put Facebook out of business.

The CEO can decide how much to put into new features, and what those features are. Not putting enough into R&D is a path to disaster long term.
From the perspective of an avid saltwater fisherman (for which Yeti is one of the most popular cooler choices) I would encourage anyone considering a Yeti to look into the alternatives. I picked up an Rtic cooler for approximately $200 less, same size as the Yeti. Performance is identical. Other similar brands include Icer, Orca, Pelican, Engel. They all have different price points and all have sales. If you can find a scratch 'n dent sale, you'll typically save 25-50% for minor cosmetic blemishes.
In a hotel I always first thing direct everything through a VPN server (work or home, depending on what I want to do). Some hotels block UDP, in that case I switch the VPN to go via TCP port 443. But some hotels (really!) block port 443.. fortunately not that many anymore.
Have dumped plenty, and looked for dumping places... plenty. Not always easy to find. Luckily, our local campground allows us to dump for $15 which we do when returning from any "dry camping" exp. Calls to campgrounds in other cities/states didn't always produce the same result. Furthermore, the process of "dumping" requires proper plumbing from your shitter to the opening for dumping. You can't simply tip your bucket of shit into an open hole and expect it to go well.

My point was that if you're living in a van, and shitting into a "glorified bucket" - dealing with your waste becomes a significant element of your day. This point is often glossed over in tiny home, or van articles. The focus is usually on the build, and not on the "living" part, which includes things like showers, dishes, poo etc.
It's not in my threat model per se, but it's something I give a lot of thought to because systems like this are expected to be used by political dissidents, whistleblowers and other persecuted individuals who are subject to such threat models.

My ISP probably forges responses because they have no problem injecting html/js and hijacking ad space on unencrypted connections.

As far as timing attacks, an example would be such: Even though you are at a coffee shop in an undisclosed location miles away from home, if LE has a reason to profile the IP you're broadcasting from at home they could do look at request times and try to link a request from the coffee shop to your home DNS server.

If you use a public DNS server, you have the same benefit of using a public VPN vs a private VPN, in that your traffic gets bundled with everyone else's and obfuscated. It's harder to establish a link between you and the DNS server using network analysis because potentially thousands of connections are being made to that same DNS server from the same VPN node at the same time.
The process of making money for investors.
See my other note about bitPatreon and SubscribeStar gaining the reputation as being platform explicitly for people with "reprehensible" viewpoints that Patreon is rejecting. If those platforms gain those reputations, it'll be very hard to compete with Patreon.
The slowing of the birthrate to manageable levels is very good, but too much of that (i.e. below replacement) leads to an inverted age pyramid, which is NOT unambiguously good.

The fact that birthrates are falling and many countries will be left with a huge number of elderly folk without enough young folk to take care of them is not unambiguously good, particularly when it happens everywhere so there's nowhere to import young immigrants from.
Weather extremes threaten food security (2012)
not stuck! working on new project who’s goal is real-time news-centric with quality conversations.. beta site up at https://sqwok.im, would love to get some feedback!
What I find interesting is the people that decry metaphorical book burning (censorship, banning) are the same ones that want to destroy authors and prevent their books from being published. It's like they think that if they can prevent a book from being published, they can't be counted among the Firemen - which IMO is rather bad logic.
Oh, cool, thats all I needed to do? Awesome, so easy!

lol, good advice regardless. As with everything engineering related, this sounds good on paper... but when rubber meets the road...
I find this advice useful for breaking out of a slump, not for preventing burnout.

I have to take the opposite approach for burnout: cut things out. Do less. Cross things off the Todo list and _dont_ add a new one.

I find my biggest sources of stress are those little tasks that take you 10 hours, but would take someone else 1 hour. Constantly fighting against unknowns and feeling helpless leads to frustration and burnout.

You can do one or two things in life really, really well. If you're juggling too much, you'll be mediocre and never make try progress you need to find value and positive reinforcement through praise.

There's huge value in novelty seeking as parent pointed out, but I've always had to approach it from a "fill in the missing piece" point, not from "add this extra thing to my overworked life" point.