skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
If anything, the "unpopular opinion" that nobody likes to acknowledge is that advertising works. Really really well.

People love to complain about a "nanny state", but an alternative is often closer to a syndicate (?) state than anything else. We would like to think people would make choices that are healthy for them. Evidence seems somewhat overwhelming that they do not.
Are there companies providing a deepfake detection service?
> For me, debt is good. It allows me to consume less than I produce right now so years later I can consume more than I produce.

Individuals produce less taxes than governments spend and consume more than a paycheck. This gap is what got Greece into trouble but it certainly felt like "the good life" while it lasted.

> But at the world level, it's just some of us choosing to consume more than we produce right now, and others of us choosing to consume less than we produce right now.

Every generation since the 1950s has consumed unsustainably high returns on their taxes (by government expenditure and with maturing bonds paid by bonds issued). It's fraudulent when extraordinary returns to earlier generations are funded not by growth but sustained by new generations seeking the same returns.
or even how insanely crowded NYC is in general. It might make sense to have scooters in a less crowded neighborhood in Brooklyn, but try driving through lower Manhattan on a scooter...
predictit has trump getting impeached by end of 2019 at 36 cents for yes. If mueller finds any "collusion" it is guaranteed impeachment. Old crimes possibly not.

So predictit at least disagrees that mueller finds collusion.

And as always if you are absolutely certain that mueller will find collusion, you can make some money. Put your money where your mouth is.
Long live youtube academy!
If you’re using a cookie to store the JWT, you don’t really need to check the auth header.
How we’re adapting a technique for keeping the law reliable to science
This implies that there was ever a conceivable way any of the predictions would be right.
I am envisioning this more for urban arterial roads that typically have 35mph and two to three lanes of traffic in one direction. Most of these roads have light priority already.
Tesla Q4 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
It occurs to me that if there had been a border wall, companies couldn't have utilized underpaid immigrants to break the unions up.
VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’s primary use case is in _facilitating_ the destabilization of existing economic infrastructure. That’s its explicit goal! So it’s weird that someone so heavily invested in it thinks it’ll be a savior of society. But then again the author operates in a different economy than the rest of us... he’ll probably be just fine.
your study is from 2012, newest research found strong correlation between certain genes and educational attainment, stronger than environmental factors like parents income[1]

your snopes article is about inheriting from mother alone, not parents

There IS also a significant difference between births based on income

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-fam...

65 births per 1000 women vs 43 births per 1000 women

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/23/science/genes-education.h...
I had a chance to play on the cockpit version in a huge arcade in Akihabara, Tokyo this year. I'm not sure whether Atari exported any units to Japan and I couldn't see any markings on it that would indicate that it was intended for the Japanese market. Presumably the arcade had paid a lot of money to import it from the US.

It's an excellent game that has aged very well, although the locals seemed more interested in their rhythm and fighting games. ;)
Double your ad revenue by reducing your page load time
I like how this is clearly abuse but the author tries to spin it as “oh just share some hackathon stuff”

Oh you mean like you could use S3 for in about all of 10 minutes?
I think Chicago's L also allows a true car-free lifestyle, as long as you don't live in the burbs
Unpopular opinion because it’s a tired, facile one. Oh, look, someone else watched the opening scene to Idiocracy, too. Let us look down on others together with our common trope! Problem is, it doesn’t really answer any questions or produce any useful new models. It was good for a laugh ten years ago, though.

Here’s something that’ll bake your noodle: what if you’re not as clever as you think you are, and due to the DunkinDonuts-Keurig effect, you don’t know you’re one of the stupid ones?
As far as profit goes, you have to also keep in mind that wholesale prices are cheaper than low volume, so a restaurant won't pay as much for the exact same cut of beef as you would.
Wow students are so lucky for the sheer number of resources available today. Great post and thanks for sharing!
Typical $500 graphics card today will do around 10 teraflops. You'd need 2k of them ($1m) for 20 quadrillion flops (the prediction is quadrillion not quintillion).
> but none of them are out of college, or they are STAHMs

Can you explain what you mean by this?
We recently listed to the dramatized audio book[1] with the family. It was worlds better than any Disney movie version of the story. The original Milne text plus the all-star British voice actors made it truly enjoyable.

Hallo, Eeyore.

Same to you, Pooh Bear, and twice on Thursdays.

[1] https://www.audible.com/pd/Winnie-the-Pooh-Dramatised-Audiob...
That's assuming the republicans remain cohesive, which assumes a unified voter base. It played that way in the Clinton impeachment for sure. That hasn't always happened historically. Nixon looked solidly in power until all of a sudden he didn't (though of course he resigned before any votes were cast on impeachment).

I agree I wouldn't put money on Trump being removed, but neither would I be shocked if it happened. Things are more complicated than a whip count.
It depends on how much growth has been driven by international demand and how much by domestic demand. China has been heavily export-oriented in the past few decades.
5 Phases of Leadership Growth Lead to Company Success
Thanks for shedding some light!

How comes so little about xanadu and all the work invested in it is published?

And why doesn't he open-source it?
Isn't that basically oauth?
Totally agreed re: seeing a vector monitor in person to really appreciate the effect. It's a real shame they aren't made any more.
I think to talk about this as a moment in time when the job is done is the mistake. It needs to be considered both as something achieved and demonstrably sustained/sustainable for a meaningful length of time into the future.

That's why I just find it funny to see that statement. For 2019. Generalizing to some global "underclass" that anyway doesn't exist.
Flair 0.4 was released just 14 days ago, and contiains LOTS of improvements for a point release: https://github.com/zalandoresearch/flair/releases
My takeaway from this is most people are going to have a fearful 2019

my other takeaway - Be greedy when others are fearful, fearful when others are greedy"
At least he sold books? Good for him.
First time I saw this thing was on a drive from Southern Arizona to San Diego. (There really aren’t that many reasons to be out there.) The pyramid is clearly visible from the Interstate. I remember thinking: “WTF is this doing here?” It was a little surreal.
Further EU unification is already falling apart, because they're trying to do it by dictate rather than voluntarily. And then there are language and cultural barriers.
ليلة رأس السنة اعتقالات بالجملة و مواقف محرجة
Yes but not in the way it's used today.

I wrote about it several years ago

http://000fff.org/getting-to-the-customer-why-everything-you...
> They were defeated, and yet still considered the "defacto legitimate government of China"? How does that work? I would think very few people consider the ROC the "legitimate" government of Mainland China.

They weren't totally defeated, but retreated to a "rump state" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rump_state) that still exists as an independent entity. Many countries, especially in the middle of the 20th century, would have preferred that government regain control of China from the Communists.

For an even more extreme example where that actually happened, look at the Baltic states. Their annexation by the Soviets was never recognized by many non-Communists states, and eventually their states re-established independence in a way that's generally considered continuous with their per-annexation states. They didn't even have the benefit of having rump states during the Cold War.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_government-in-exile

> However, the Estonian government in exile did serve to carry the continuity of the Estonian state forward. The last prime minister in the duties of the president, Heinrich Mark, ended the work of the government in exile when he handed over his credentials to the incoming President Lennart Meri on October 8, 1992. Meri issued a statement thanking the Estonian government in exile for being the keepers of the legal continuity of the Estonian state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_Diplomatic_Service_(1...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Legations_(1940%E2%80%9...
I've corrected my comment to say 'investigation' instead. The point still stands as I'm sure you're aware.
Great thread about smart development overall (C++ development in particular)
California inmate takes unlikely path to freedom: podcasting
Take what works, then improve it the least amount possible, test that it is indeed an improvement. Once you verify it is an improvement, repeat.
Perhaps you might, when you get a chance, email him a brief note to tell him that. That'll make a person's day.
Are you a designer? These amazing companies are searching for design talent
People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade. This is expected given how fast it was growing in the early and mid 2000's.
Compare Escape(), EncodeURI(), and EncodeURIComponent() – Virtual Species
My reason for being skeptical of his claims.
There is a reason a large part of "cooking" in the past involved preserving/canning. Pickled food seems to have largely been relegated to cucumbers nowadays. And jellies/jams are used in quantities that wouldn't have made sense in the past. Probably the same for many alcohols. Yes, it was the boiling of the water that made it safe, but I suspect the rest of the process helped it stay safer longer. (Would have to dive in on that claim, as I suspect it is less true for beers than it is other drinks.)

So, yes, it shouldn't be a big surprise that fresh ingredients don't have a longer shelf life. Most of what we do to make things no longer fresh came about precisely because of that. :)
Predictions that sort of came true:

> Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.

"Most" is strong, but virtual agents are definitely widespread and fairly heavily loathed.

> Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably

Undoubtedly correct.

> Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.

> Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.

Very strong trendlines, although "almost completely" and "no longer" are not accurate.

> Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.

Depending on how you define "wide use". Applications that rely on neural nets are very heavily used, but neural nets are closer to a niche technology than a widespread algorithmic hammer.

> All students have access to computers.

In developed countries, yes.

> Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.

Scarily, this is more true than not.

... That's pretty much the lot of the 2019 predictions that came close to coming true. At best that's a 20% hit rate for predictions, although many of these hits require reinterpreting "most" as "many" and so on.
Roll-up of thread for much easier reading at https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/10804083489845575...
Moore's law didn't die, it's been para(lle)lized.
Why do they even need approval? Isn’t it really short range?
Then I would have to reevaluate my position!
A computer might be as powerful as my brain, or more powerful than my brain.

That's not the issue. The real issue is knowing how to program it.
I'm aphantasic, and like others here was blown away to learn that people can see things with their eyes closed. That statement seems like an oxymoron to me.

Once I started thinking about it more, I realised I can actually imagine a very precise scenario, except that it is always behind me. It could be similar to how a blind person perceives the world, not seeing anything but knowing that everything is there.

The way I see it, I can process two different worlds at once. I've always been very good at modeling abstract things in my head, e.g. binary trees or a graph.
>> So if I'm marking an axis from 0 to 0.9 in 0.1 increments, I should obviously do the integer indirection dance?

Yes. Because you clearly don't understand what you're doing at all if you believe that equivalence relation is defined the same way for floating-points as it is defined for integers.

Floating-points aren't numbers. They're more like confidence intervals - and at a certain limit a confidence interval behaves just like an integer. But it's only a limit.

The fact that most users of programming languages don't want to keep track of that in their code only reinforces my belief that they must do exactly as the software guidelines tell them to.
One of my Econ classes posed a question “why would basing a currency on gold be bad” (some hint like that). Essentially, any currency with a finite supply and that can never increase will restrain economic growth.
Nationalize any nuclear plant that has an "accident". Investors would have a financial justification to spend on safety.
Clinton was impeached.
I'll ask again, did you actually read the submission? I get how cliche it is to ask this but you genuinely seem ignorant of the entire basis is this conversation. If you had read the submission, you would know how flawed and useless IQ tests are, and how they reward test taking abilities over intellect.
This captures two of my childhood computing obsessions. I spent so long messing around with Polyray and generating raytraced pictures for convering into Magic Eye stereograms. I also had some Windows 3.1 fractal generator program, where you could mess around with the formulas and zoom in (slowly) and make them cycle colours.

Looking forward to playing this a lot. I particuarly like the clever use of fractal mathematics to make accurate collision detection physics. Though it helps that he's using a sphere as the user-controlled object.
This is a very new phenomenon and there are only a few players on the market. You can check what we are doing at https://www.deeptracelabs.com
Sure, I'll put something together and post either a response or a link here when I can.
> Why would it be that cheap?

* It is still quite expensive for a hobby software. And that's a market that autodesk targets with fusion 360.

* It is free now for low volume + hobbyists.

I get what you are saying. But with fusion 360 autodesk made a different call. CAD products are usually niche but fusion 360 is one of the few that hopes to sell in large quantities. That is why it can be cheaper.

Currently for me fusion 360 would be free but for $1000 I would get two years of subscription. And fusion 360 is massive, I'm asking for a subset of it.

But yes, maybe even that is not enough, even if autodesk targets a broad audience. Great, then don't pretend that it is and start charging for it.
The Soviets invented it, the Chinese mastered it, and Brietbart has never been anything but completely transparent in articulating his strategy as taking Saul Alinky's tactics and applying them toward better ends.
3D floating credit card
Nothing stops the others who are contributing to that consultant’s underlying free software from taking pride in their work. Nothing stops you from spending your bench time improving (or replacing!) that free software with others.

Free Software is good for the users of software, which is ultimately good for developers, because ultimately we're all users of software first and developers second.
Porting an existing (legacy) application to other platforms often takes a lot of development time, depending on how portably it was initially developed. I’d argue that if you start out with the intention of supporting many platforms and throughout the project do not tie it unnecessarily to OS-specific APIs and features, then releasing for multiple platforms becomes much less of a development effort. Stick to platform-neutral languages, use the standard libraries whenever possible, minimize and isolate the platform-specific code (probably just the UI), and you’re well on your way.
+1 for Why We Sleep, just finished it a few days ago.
Or a nice cup of tea :)
It’s also subsidized in those areas. As I said in another post, counties like China don’t use a lot of Nuclear power even with minimal political issues because of core economic issues.

Saudi Arabia for example is aiming for 15% nuclear by 2040. They have plenty of money etc, it’s just not a great solution to scale. Further, any advances you make today take a long time to put into production meaning we can’t wait for ‘better tech’.
Is the decline in intelligence with respect to CO2 correlation or causation? Obviously, we should make real efforts to protect our air quality, as we all benefit from this. And we should make efforts to prevent people from polluting the air to their benefit (creating capital or profit from some action which pollutes the air -- an action which otherwise would be unprofitable if we were to make it illegal).
I was curious especially on the network protocol stack considering that the ASP.NET team pushed the CoreCLR and language teams a lot to achieve a good performance with nice syntax and maintainability.

Thanks Ayende for all your content and contributions.
Gradual typing does not seem to work very well. It requires a runtime check every time you pass data from a "dynamically-typed" to a "statically-typed" part of the program, and then a conversion step from statically-typed to tagged data for the converse. These things eat into performance, in the end it's no better than what dynamic types would give you, and a lot worse than what one could achieve with static types.
I bet you couldn't find a single person on the street that is aware of that distinction if you went out right now and asked 100 of them.

"Cafe opens in Tokyo staffed by waldos..." is a complete regression to me, though I suppose I'd click the headline just to find out what the hell a waldo is.
Given the maze on the website, what is the highest number you can get on a square when creating a maze?

This is a fun puzzle, I got up to 124:

https://imgur.com/a/L3OcJpA
My prediction is a lot of people's predictions for 2019 will be wrong. Look how many people were wrong about crypto currency in 2018. Or about the stock market.
I bacon that!
There's a subjective side to this argument, I suppose, but having lived in both cities I'd argue that Berlin's public transportation is _at least_ a couple orders of magnitude better than NYC's.

The U-Bahn / S-Bahn / Deutsche Bahn / Autobus / Tram inter-connectivity are at least on par with what NYC has to offer (adjusted for geographic factors and population density), and that's before getting into KPIs like on-time arrival percentages, individual line uptime, and peak hour commuter congestion. And then there's the more intangible differences, which are nevertheless important to humans - like vehicle cleanliness, station upkeep... the list goes on and on.

Compare the Berlin Hauptbahnhof to Penn Station. Or the U1 to the L, or the J/M/Z. Or peak-hour Alexanderplatz to Union Square. Or the M29 to... I don't know... the NYC bus of your choosing. My god. Throw whatever numbers you want out there as a counterargument, but I know which I'd prefer in just about any scenario.
> It needs to be considered both as something achieved and demonstrably sustained/sustainable for a meaningful length of time into the future.

100% agree. I just wanted to highlight that one of the largest obstacles to ensuring that everyone's basic needs are met (and that our grandchildren will still have a planet they can easily live on) is our politics and short-nearsightedness, not necessarily our technology.
Pretty much.

The vast majority of cereals simply are not food. They are a treat.

At most, perhaps some porridge with fruit for sweetness.

Even the unsweetened stuff like corn flakes - sure, it has less refined sugar, but you're basically eating cardboard. Get some real green vegetables in you!
It's misleading if you're discussing individual standards of living, but it could be relevant if you're discussing trade wars or military power.
I think it would be fair to allow tensor-ops instead of generic flops, though, and in that case he would "only" be behind by about 1-2 orders of magnitude.

RK's estimates are consistently best case estimates. But even if his estimates are wrong by a couple of decades, a lot can still happen before 2050.
Dude. Take a break.

Your problem is your own inability or unwillingness to set aside a few moments to read the - in my opinion reasonably clear - definitions in the linked articles. Don't take it out on others.

You are not entitled to an easily grokkable explanation, tailor made for your exact level of knowledge.
Great stuff! QR code is optimized for low error rates when the channel is a digital camera-based, single photo capture. If one uses a code designed for multiple capture over time (some video code), the transfer speed could be increased significantly. Thinking of it like a very noisy fibre optic channel, there's plenty of room for improvement.
Ackchyually... ;)

I never heard the term Waldo before. For those who are interested, more info here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remote_manipulator
It’s not a US or western problem. China, Saudi Arabia, Russia etc also use minimal nuclear power because of basic economic issues. It’s fine under 10%, but as you scale up the problems get worse.

PS: Rosenergoatom which runs Russia’s nuclear power plants has seemingly made progress in lowering operating costs, but it’s not clear how much of that progress is real. Though Russia is planning to ramp up to ~35% nuclear and is pushing a lot of R&D which is promising. Then again they have issues with solar.
What are the best law firms for startups today?
I recently formed an LLC* and now I need to set up an Operating Agreement. I want to preserve the ability to convert to a C Corp down the line, as recommended in another HN question, if I pursue VC funding.

Which law firms should I reach out to at this early stage to help create my Operating Agreement and advise on next steps? LegalZoom comes to mind, but I think the experience there is a little impersonal?

Thanks.

* An LLC was my only option for reasons I won't go into here.
That's fair. I was thinking back to my days when I worked in a coffee place and a restaurant, I was actually pretty surprised how much of the food was prepackaged and only needed heating to serve.