skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fiveth...

What I'm referring to is the "now-cast", but his other two definitions both seem to shy away from saying "this is flat-out the probability we think of the election".

The point is, you can redefine or choose a definition of probability if you want, but if it's less useful than the normal definition (and confusing to people!) then people are free to criticize your work on that basis.

And there's a very useful, testable, mathematical definition of probability that allows us to equally assess everyone's predicting ability, and Nate Silver is dodging it.

If you're interested in this subject, there's a non-mathematical discussion somewhere in Tetlock's book Superforecasting which is interesting in general.
Dhall: a non-reptitive typed configuration language
Whitepaper:How Much Does ERP Software Cost: Off-The-shelf vs. Custom-Made ERP
You may be right, but that doesn’t reflect my experience. Most the BR’s I rip are just barely released (pressed) and I have a 100% success rate with makemkv. They all literally worked on the first try, even new releases. Maybe I’m just lucky.

The only problem I’ve had is when they try to make it hard by putting a gazillion titles on the disk to make it hard for you to figure out which is the right one. That sucks, but is not insurmountable.
Can confirm, put a hello world in codepen.io with some other text and JAWS skipped right past it.
Ukraine’s Traditional Rugs in Combination with Pokémon and Star Wars
Pico8 link for the lazy: https://www.lexaloffle.com/pico-8.php

It is super fun to work with
I got so excited about this, but Mobile Safari keeps zooming when I double-press a button!
Nate calls the chances like 80:20 Clinton:Trump.
Taleb takes the side: 100,000 USD that Trump wins.
If Trump wins, Nate pays 500,000 to Taleb. If Clinton wins, than Taleb pays 100,000 USD to Nate.

Do this for each election.
I'm guessing they'll charge for the API and possibly support for higher-resolutions.
How did you collect the training set? Did you manually process (removed background) from training images or outsourced it via a third party?
I wouldn't say elegance here - there is something fundamentally elegant about the utilisation of 8-bit integers in scenarios where they can be used.

It is on the other hand, fundamentally at odds with accuracy - which is already well and widely known (at very least implicitly) and is the reason we so readily accept approximations in computing.
Hiding complexity in Elm
Oh okay. I think it's fair to just take his polls-plus model as his prediction and ignore the now-cast. But I wouldn't say that showing the now-cast is somehow being sneaky. He's just providing extra information.
That's not what they said.

They will comply with legal orders in China. Nowhere does it say they shared the private keys to the servers.
Ask HN: People currently [Working] in compilers, what are your goto resources
Considering how much card fraud (and other stuff like money laundering, etc) happens all the time on the Internet and nothing gets done, do you really think someone is going to care?
The censors control a surprisingly large amount of downvotes here on HN.

edit: also note top comment in this thread is flagged, whatever that means in these days.
Depends if your host countries intelligence agency takes a dim view of what you are doing as happened with the Iraqi super gun.

And some countries play harder ball than the CIA and SIS
But look at what you did - you looked at the prob and then made a decision. And that’s kinda Talebs whole spiel - quoting probabilities is moot without an associated action else its just masturbating for attention. Nate shows the probabilities and puts his hands up and says well it could be anything etc.

It’s reminds one of those pundits who are bullish on a stock but won’t put their money where their mouths are. If you the viewer buy it because of their recommendations and they are right then they are happy to get the praise but if it goes wrong and you the viewer pay the price they get to say “well the market is highly uncertain etc”. If the guy won’t eat his own dog food then why should others etc
PHP Websocket server
Is there any rationale for running docker with sudo (assuing the non uid0 user is in the docker group)? https://github.com/bloomberg/goldpinger/blob/master/Makefile
> The Blu-ray copy protection scheme also has the quality of making legitimate players obsolete if they were the source of stolen keys. So even a legitimate older player might not be able to read a new Blu-ray.

This is the reason why I never bought a single player or disk, Blu-ray and HDMI/HDCP copy protection went way to far (especially with the chain of custody nonsense). At the end, if the industry wants to fuck legitimate customers like that, fine, I just torrent everything, this way only a single person/group has to figure out how to rip the disk or broadcast, just once. There is no reason what so ever to feel bad about it, they did it to themselves, no informed customer should ever buy into that shit. Its self defense, I'm not buying a TV for thousands for the copy protection to brick it eventually.
These special characters were put in Unicode based on their use as identifiers in maths and such. Diacritics aren't used there, so a tool exploiting those character ranges can't support them either.

These characters aren't meant to be used to write words and sentences in.
I had a similar challenge many years ago. I worked at a computer lab and had access to about 25 Dell Optiplex 380s, and I had about 200 DVDs I wanted to rip. They were for a friend, who was compiling city council meeting videos for a county.

So, I slightly modified Knoppix and started a netboot server, and made a dvd ripping cluster.

I didn't end up doing exactly this, but it's worth trying DVD::Rip. It specifically has support for ripping clusters[1].

But it doesn't even have to be something as complicated as a cluster, just as long as you parallelize things. How many laptops are you allowed to bring with you? Could you bring five laptops and 10 dvd drives?

[1]: https://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=1217643
PHP malware detector
Automated Teller Machine Market| New Advancements in ATM and Forecast by 2025
As I did, using keystrokes on a keyboard. Do you have any further questions?
The title implies that we should have handled the Web over to another company. We should not, to any company.
I agree. I found the livestream that Patreon transcribed in the article[1]. From what I can tell, the context is that he is responding to an alt-right troll commenting in the chat.

He appears to be throwing the racially-charged language back at the troll and criticising them for being so disrespectful. From his mocking tone, I did not get the impression that he condoned their prejudice.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74llFWdeKNM&feature=youtu.be...
Third Party Logistics (3PL) Market 2018-2025 Industry Trend and Company Analysis
V8 release v7.2
This is good but I wish he used something that inflicts actual monetary damage, like paint or something. Glitter is fun and all but is relatively easy to clean up. Paint is usually impossible to take off from fabric and would cost quite a bit if it were to explode in these assholes' cars for example. Would teach them a good lesson.
If I'm understanding it correctly, aleatory uncertainty is uncertainty you understand, and epistemic uncertainty is uncertainty due to lack of knowledge.

Uncertainty about the outcome of an unbiased die roll is aleatory. You don't know what's going to happen, but that's because of inherent uncertainty, not because you don't know enough about the die. So while you can't be sure what the outcome will be, you can know that each outcome has a 1/6 probability, and you shouldn't expect to adjust that probability as you gain more knowledge.

But uncertainty about the outcome of an election is epistemic, because it depends on a lot of present unknowns. If you run more polls you could reach a different, more accurate probability. Part or all of the uncertainty is because of things you don't know.
Like the product and web. Only one concern:
>Once we have enough paying users we will share the richness
Before that happen and at your command, the users are training your commercial proprietary AI model for free ?

Why you don't use Amazon Mechanical Turk[0] ?
[0] https://www.mturk.com/
Be Choosy About What You Automate
Swipies: Reusable, durable, synthetic paper made for creative people
This is slightly wrong. It was initially one week, not two. It was changed because it was unconstitutional, as it limited freedom of expression too much, not because it was useless or anything to do with elite vs people. And it still exists, limited to the day of the election and the day before.
Source: https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/nouveaux-cahiers-du-c...
Also Oleo. Somewhat unique in that it has both a terminal and Xwindows UI. https://www.gnu.org/software/oleo/
But that doesn't seem to be the nature of their disagreement. Taleb's main complaint seems to be about how the swings in the prediction probabilities far out from the event indicates a fundamental flaw in how the underlying model uses probability.

That being said it would be a fun little exercise to see who much money would be made if they bet had $1 on every race 538 predicted in 2016 and 2018 using the model odds.
Codility Developer Report 2018
As said he tries to help his readership understand how probability works, but in the end one may still ethically do business in one's chosen field without having to solve the problems of understanding the limits of that field for those uneducated in it.

on edit: grammar was atrocious, still bad now.
I'm guessing something along the lines of Morbotron [1]. Not the actual use case for the screens/subs/etc. but more the data required to do either of them: frame by frame images for analysis with timestamps and subtitles.

1: https://morbotron.com/
No. Facebook bought them.
I've been writing firmware to run a DC motor controller where this efficiency/elegance tradeoff is very apparent. I can write "slower" code in a very elegant way, such as reading the throttle input. But when it comes to implementing the high-frequency control loop with all its ADC readings and filtering, I have to trade much of my elegance for raw efficiency.
Cowardly? He's not "covering his ass", he's doing statistics
How big is too big for json?
Fascinating expose of a manifestation of humanity’s desire for justice.

I’m reminded that I find it odd that Moloch is still referenced by the American elite in passing: U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2016-07895 Doc No. C06131616
I can certainly appreciate ways that there are more direct and productive ways to become a better programmer.

My goal is to become a better thinker in general. Specifically with regards to seeing how one type of thing relates to another type of thing.

I'm actually more interested in better understanding and reasoning about the ecology of software development than becoming a better programmer per se but only because on some level I think that's actually necessary in order to achieve the writing of better software.

To put that into English... we don't write software in a vacuum. We write it in a team, in a company, in a world full of other programmers and there is a rich set of relationships among all of those things that is exerting pressure on the final shape the software takes.

Category Theory seems like fun and useful tangent that might help me understand the world better and be mildly useful in an abstract way.
Nvidia’s Scary AI Generates Humans That Look 100% Real
It seems to have been "fixed" for that one photo. Now it pulls out random people in the background instead of the focus of the picture.

It did work (mostly) on this shot though: https://snouts.online/@Kye/101262023246984238

Poor Duke lost his ear...
Also Dwitter[0], "javascript demos in 140 characters", if one's into this kind of stuff

[0]: https://www.dwitter.net/
https://youtu.be/pzb96FblhLg
AR company Blippar is entering into administration (bankruptcy)
Tutorially, GDPR and our Customers
+1 for the clever naming, got me grinning
I don’t think the author really addresses the examples presented.

The example of the FAST decision tree is based on a code generator, an abstraction which is presumably more elegant than the generated code which is littered with goto statements.

And what about std::sort? Say what you want about C++ in general, but it is definitely superior to a rudimentary qsort in C in terms of elegance and at least equivalent in terms of runtime efficiency.

There are plenty of examples in either direction. It would seem that this is yet another case of “it depends.”
Bad first example. Automatic differentiation in arbitrary precision is as elegant as symbolic, and as efficient as "floating point".
Ah yes.. The old "if you were creating <thing author doesn't know much about>, it wouldn't be that hard to take this sort of thing into account"
I cheated a little bit by creating an AI that allowed me to do it faster in a semi-automatic fashion. However, the first batch to train this "labeling"-network was generated manually, which took forever.
The Bible-Thumping Tech CEO Who’s Proud of Keeping Neo-Nazis Online
I don't think that's quite what the article meant to imply.

> “Danny Meyer and Andrew Tarlow wanted to go one step beyond and eliminate tipping altogether,” Jayaraman says. “But it’s challenging to do that on your own without a policy change that requires everyone to be paid a full minimum wage.”

Rather than arguing that the US is totally unique and therefore tip-free service is impossible, the author points out that the barrier is that the US lacks some basic policies that the aforementioned no-tip cultures presumably have (although "Europe and Asia" is pretty nebulous and I don't pretend to grok the labor laws of every country that could possibly refer to). We could probably argue all day over what "American exceptionalism" actually means, but I've generally associated that term with fuzzy just-so-story-esque generalizations about American weirdness rather than with grounded arguments as to the specific causes of the weirdness. This article seems to be more of the latter than the former.
No, but China does recognize it as a human right since it has ratified the declaration and they enjoy permanent membership on the Security Council (after having gotten that position from Taiwan, and they did it under the condition that they would uphold their decisions).

I posit that breaking the very morals you believe in yourself, and lying about it, is immoral.
List of companies with acquisitions worth over $480BN
Quick fix Suggestion: Add a comment explaining what the product is all about. People here might revisit it post 4-5 hours if the description of the product is enough to keep them interested till then.
No, it's mostly caused by people changing their minds on who to vote for (or whether to vote). That's why the estimates move around a lot when there is news affecting the election, like the given example of Comey re-opening the Clinton investigation.
I think you'd be legally liable if they get hurt or, worse, if they lose control of their car and hurt or kill some innocent driver / bystander. Even spraying glitter is quite bold. Imagine if they swerve and kill someone, that'd be a tragedy and a legal mess.

I guess the main problem is that police can't / won't respond to petty theft, so common people are pretty defenseless against these assholes.
First of all you're wrong, I did read the article. Secondly, the author directly addresses that point. He was leveraged when buying real estate too, so why not assume he would be leveraged up in the stock market? It's not an uncommon practice at all, and the comparison wouldn't make sense without factoring in loans.

Frankly I would have done the same, I think running a bunch of different businesses would be more stimulating than maximizing wealth through stocks. But objectively he's paid a financial price for that.
Yeah -- in an ideal world everyone could afford to live near where they worked.
It should be 2048 which is DVD sector size.
as in https://twitter.com/PhillipNunnUK/status/1073977573145788416
We are not an image hoster after all. Too many problems would be coming along also.
Of course not directly, they have their lobbyists to do their dirty work for them.
Is there a way to dispute the story on folklore? drfuch's comment should be appended there.
Thanks so much for your feedback. Yeah we thought about offering to users who tag now a free usage for life. AWS Turk is a great idea to add. We will certainly take a look. Thanks!
Different Result from Array.sort() on Chrome and Safari with Same Input 🧐
It may be 'far out' now, but in ~ 500 years it comes in as close as Saturn! (And the orbit's inclined 31 degrees.)
Why Are More Kids and Teens Using Wearable Technology?
It can also be read through fine though. I’ve gotten the first volume and read through the beginning without too much trouble, although the whole book is so long and dense I don’t think I’ll be able to finish for a while...
The U.S. Cities with the Fastest and Slowest Internet Speeds
AI Neural Networks Are Uncomfortably Accurate at Creating Realistic Human Faces
Yeah the cold water side will look dramatically better. It certainly will have deposits accumulating but it's not going to be anything close to the amount of deposits that form inside of a water heater. Heating up hard water will chemically alter the water going through it. It's not that those calcium carbonate molecules were in solution before, it's pretty insoluble in water, it's that they were chemically formed when the water was heated.

I'm not suggesting that those deposits are going to kill you or anything, but if things go wrong and the water isn't heated enough those deposits make a great substrate for harmful bacteria to grow.

Ideally you shouldn't use hot water for consumption even though normally it's safe. It also tastes different than cold water because of the change.
> The primary goal of econometrics aka statistical inference is not forecasting.

There are some in the economics community that agree with you. Believers in the Freakonomics/Josh Angrist tradition largely agree with this view.
It's possible this got downvoted because it is seen not as a misunderstanding of reality to be corrected, but in fact a harmful meme that the original poster doesn't actually believe themselves. Viewed through that lens, it certainly does deserve to be downvoted and it does not deserve to be interacted with. Not that I advocate either action.
> I have a hard time imagining a clean codebase in a language without some form of polymorphism, first class functions, and algebraic data types

You don't have any definition of 'clean', so maybe you mean something precise or maybe you don't, but I have seen clean codebases in all kinds of languages - C, C++, Go, Java. The language doesn't dictate whether your code is clean or not, the programmer does.
> if they lose control of their car and hurt or kill some innocent driver / bystander

Wouldn't this be the responsibility of the thief/driver for fiddling with the package while driving in the first place? Otherwise you may as well sue any manufacturer because you happened to have an accident while interacting with any item while driving.
So now it's okay because it's done to an actor that you consider deserving of such treatment? People said such behaviour is wrong, so they changed their act. Why wouldn't you hold others accountable to the same standard? What is the point of listening to the criticism and correcting your behaviour if it will be okay for others to keep punishing you?

Seems counterproductive to me.
Ask HN: How do you choose to learn when there is so much to learn?
Control Keys – our keyboard is wasting keys
No, just a common scenario
Which Lies Are Acceptable on CV?
thanks, gets me every time :D
It doesn't need to be a simple bet. It could incorporate the volatility which Taleb might believe shouldn't be present in an unflawed model.
I wonder how spreadsheets catch recursive formulas so quickly. eg cells that depend on each other.
Not "good" as in "good vs. evil", but rather "good" as in "proficient at the skill of lawyering".
> backed by George Soros

Can we please stop dropping conspiracy-fueled asides like that? It's entirely tangential if taken at face value and my ears are bleeding from the dogwhistling.
I know, but it would expose a lack of empathy for the victims.
Please note that this paper is 40 years old and there is no reason for anyone to read it, with the possible exception of someone working on a history project.
Plenty of other countries have similar mechanisms, where the user is also not informed (because of a court order or similar). The US is certainly not the only culprit here, although they may or may not be the worst.
Bitcoin presents the ultimate prisoner's dilemma
I say you buy $10 worth of bitcoin and promise not to sell for 2 years. I'll stick $10 extra in an index fund and not sell that for 2 years. There, now we've made an implicit wager with each other and this way we won't have to reconnect in 2 years to work out exactly who won how much.
You rang?
Community potlucks: Shared meals help build deep ties among residents in Totnes
Not really, but note that adding your user to the docker group is precisely identical to disabling sudo's password authentication for your user (adding users to the docker group gives a free privilege escalation from that user to root).

Now, that said, the Docker client does quite a few things (such as unpacking archives) that you might not want to be done as root. Especially if the client is running on a different machine.
Very good list. Would love to be able to visit the sites being acquired I think.
Tracking Hikes with Haskell [video]
There is also Hatetris[1], with the same premise.

Which I discovered because, for Hatetris, he wrote a nice twitter-oriented compact binary-to-text encoding, base65536[2].

[1] https://qntm.org/hatetris

[2] https://github.com/qntm/base65536
I prefer going to the old captcha rather than spend 2 minutes clicking on images
Ask HN: Tools/infrastructure for running tests on multiple hosts simultaneously?
My workflow has me running tests, in an interactive and iterative way on up to 250 hosts at a time, with machines divided into one of a set of up to 6 roles (some may have multiple roles). I currently use GNU Parallel or Python Fabric depending on what I need to do but this requires writing a bunch of custom code for every set of tests I run. Is there anything else out there that could reduce the overhead of my approach?
IANAL, but I'm pretty sure that if you booby trap something and your trap indirectly causes the harming or death of someone, you could be co-responsible :(

Not sure if you can bring the video to the police and try to get them arrested. It's not cool that these people act with impunity.
Pwnedkeys – all the keys that should never be used again
It's actually very similar to Aaron Schwartz's plan of using academic access to copy and widely distribute papers. This researcher does not have a legal basis to copy 2000+ disks in order to free them from the national archives. At most he has a restricted right of access to use some of them in his academic research.

To test he could ask the national archive for permission to carry out his plan and observe how quickly his access is revoked.

-----

Research Room Rules.

The rules are intended to provide clear instructions to both staff and researchers on the research room:

* registration process;
* entry and exit procedures;
* items authorized and not authorized for use in the * research rooms;
* pull requests;
* records handling guidelines; and
* copying and equipment approvals.

The rules will be available for researcher use in each facility or can be requested in writing from the facility managers listed below.

Archives II, College Park, MD – Michael Knight, michael.knight@nara.gov