skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Apple has made its choice to push H.264 & H.265 due to their vested interest in the licensing revenue they stand to gain via the MPEG LA.

If that’s true, why are they a member of the AOM, which promotes the royalty free av1?
Taleb actually makes a great point here and published a pretty cool paper about it. The point is that if a probability of the event changes too much, you can arbitrage it. E.g. assume these are payoff odds and you can sell your position before the event. He then found some nice no-arbitrage conditions that "real" probabilities must meet and showed that Nate's predictive timeline allowed arbitrage. Unfortunately Nate never responded to this claim with anything other than "math is hard" and other nonsense.

You can read the paper here:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf
The difference between epistemic and aleatory uncertainty is not well understood even in the machine learning world. Most applications of machine learning to domains where uncertainty needs to be quantified use aleatory uncertainty, when epistemic uncertainty is the right one. I wish we had better ways to explain these concepts, and perhaps better terms too. Alternatives like intrinsic/extrinsic or irreducible/reducible don't really work either, because they make it seem like it's a dichotomy.
Taleb is just mixing up the nowcast and the forecast, even after being corrected many times.
Yes, they are on both counts.

We can discuss what the law should be all week long. By that time the barn door has been open and the horse is miles away. This isn’t just solved by regulation.

What we need is OPEN SOURCE ALTERNATIVES like https://youtu.be/pZ1O_gmPneI
Cans are more straightforward to recycle, and have a small positive residual value without subsidies. Bottles do not.

It’s also surprisingly easy and cheap to make your own sparkling water. If you get a counter top unit, people make CO2 adapters for them that let you use standard 5/20 lb cylinders rather than the way overpriced ones the original vendor has. A standard 20lbs cylinder will last 22x as long as the cylinder the units come with, and don’t cost much more to exchange. A welding supply shop typically has food grade CO2 for roughly $1-3/lb as they also supply all the nearby restaurants.

If you want flavors without sugar, bitters used for cocktails make for a easy way to flavor the water you just carbonated.
Shows the brilliance of a true data scientist/statistician, condensing all the info in one graphic so that a layman can understand.
It's not clear to me what the author is getting at. 538 is good at aggregating polls and showing some probability. The author complains that's not enough because a non zero probability of the less probable outcome gives 538 too much cover when the less probable outcome occurs.

Isn't that a shared characteristic of any other model dealing with probabilities?

Is the author trying to say Nate Silver gets too much spotlight considering he doesn't guarantee outcomes?

I didn't sell in 2008 and kept buying. I have the same strategy today. Not sure if that also makes me a guru if that's the bar (as the author applies it to Taleb).

Disclaimer: not a mathematician
Previous discussions:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14825571 (2017, 22 comments)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3601687 (2012, 98 comments)
Nate Silver always calls the nowcast (blue line) for what it is - a forecast for if the election was held that day. The forecast, made a few days before election day, is the official forecast and the one that beats most other estimates.
A further reply, beyond my simplistic defense of my use of the term "good manager":

It sounds like your "naive and idealistic" manager overlaps with my "good manager".

I will argue that a manager's principle responsibility is actually to be a maintainer of relationships. Her responsibility is to maintain her relationship with each of her direct reports first and foremost, next to help them maintain their relationships with each other, and finally to help them maintain relationships with the other employees/teams in the company as necessary.

Managers do have some logistical tasks they have to take care of, but mostly they "manage" humans, and that is fundamentally about keeping the relationships healthy and functional.

It sounds from your description like you've never had a good manager, and I'm sorry for that. The good ones definitely are idealistic, but they're not naive.

They are, as I mentioned earlier, in much shorter supply than good programmers. I've worked with far more decent programmers than I have decent managers (though since teams have N programmers to 1 manager on average, that may just be sampling bias).

I should also note that when I'm having trouble with a coworker, my default is a one-on-one attempt to resolve the issue(s) directly. If that fails (or in the rare case where I think it's a bad plan), I don't go _complain_ to my manager as such - I ask for their help in mediating conflict and negotiations. Because a good one focuses on relationship maintenance, they're often better at handling those situations than I am, and at helping the different members of the conflict understand each other and resolve their disagreements amicably.

Again - good ones are rare. I'm sorry you haven't gotten to experience one, from the sound of it.
I've done this with an old PC, 6 DVD drive bays and a bootable USB stick, ripping to network storage, did like 200 movies in a weekend.

That PC sits in a basement now, I think. If anyone lives in Milwaukee and wants to rip some DVDs over the holidays, get in touch, more than happy to loan the machine out.
Modern L4 use synchronous messaging because asynchronous messages leave you vulnerable to DoS.
I appreciate the stuff about two types of certainties, but where are they actually arguing anything remotely relevant like that? As far as I can tell, based on what I see bubble up to my twitter feed and what tweets are displayed in this post, the disagreement is based entirely on Talib’s claim that Silver switched his prediction from 80% to 50%. This really has nothing to do with actually understanding probability or prediction models. It’s just Talib sharing some other pundit’s deliberate misinterpretation of a single phrase deliberately taken out of context in an interview with Silver.

I don’t think their disagreement has much to do with science or mathematics. I think the two guys have big online followings, each leaning heavily toward two different political ideologies, and the two leaders just have to try to beat each other up on a Twitter to decide which side is better.
Oh yeah, that one's great. My two favorite uses of this sign - first, on the jetway, when you're stuck in line, and second, in the baby food aisle at our local grocery store. I guess you could think of it like a memento mori, though: "Everything is killing you, slowly".
Package Thief vs. Glitter Bomb Trap [video]
Google violated name suppression in New Zealand legal case
All of your 5 points are opinions though...cynical ones that is!

A) saying they did shady things in the past...neither legislators nor people seemed to think so

B) how did they screw up? Because a republican president got elected via single digit margins that you don’t like?

C) maybe they just disagree with the armchair experts?

D) again, this is a opinion for which we have yet to see any proof

E) Once again, this is a opinion. Their user base at large doesn’t seem to care so I’ll throw in my opinion too and say they did everything right!

The issue here is that the media just keeps throwing around poor conclusion that where derived from even poorer facts. We laugh about our legislators not understanding how the internet works...well neither does the NYT, the guardian and many other outlets!

Here is the truth: the left wing is upset about loosing to Donald Trump because if Hillary would have gotten elected we wouldn’t be having this conversation!
Like, ripping the HDMI output? You're limited to realtime speed for that, which is going to make the process take ten times longer.
Did you get a response? I've been waiting to get access.
I haven't read any of his works but I have a suspicion that Judea Pearl writes about causality in this niche with that inferential difference in mind.
Did anyone manage to get access yet? I did submit a request.
I had a similar experience! When I first learned programming, it was through a book I borrowed from a teacher, who would only let me access her computer once a week. So I basically wrote all the programs I wanted to write with pen and paper, and then typed them and ran them once a week. It definitely gave me a much thorough understanding of many algorithms, as I basically have to simulate execution on paper.
Mearsheimer and Walt disagree with you: https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/14/books/review/Letters-t-1....
Equivalence of State Machines and Coroutines
You just reinvented async-await/continuations. It's a great idea.
Shouldn't a guy like Taleb be able to propose a bet with Silver that demonstrates he (Taleb) is right?
Esop’s fables?
Sorry to hear about your situation, but know that you aren't alone. A good friend of mine grew up as a white kid in a predominantly black neighborhood, and he was the victim of unbelievable racism. He was bullied mercilessly in school, and was called racial slurs all the time. He tried to fit in and so tried to dress and talk like his black associates, but he was mocked and ridiculed for that too, and told to stop dressing/acting black. They called him a name that is a portmanteau of "white" and the "n-word." He got beat up quite often as well.

So yes, racism against whites is certainly possible, and I agree it takes a very closed-minded person to think that it doesn't happen, just because they haven't seen it.
About boobytrapping packages  [video]
Having a hard time finding words to express how interesting of a topic Mr. Schafmeister is working on!

I’m playing around with compilation, self-studying during weekends. I want to learn how to compile Closures from my small Lambda Calculus language into something like C++. “Baby’s first FP codegen”, or the like.

I have struggled to find reading material for the intermediate beginner on this subject. So, if anyone on HN has a favourite link on the web about compiling functional languages, please feel free to share them.
Offic? Is that like the IT version of Offal?
So I guess that's a no.
It was fun discussing it with you anyway. I do hope next time you choose to try to paint others in bad faith, you have a bit more evidence and a bit less conjecture.

Or just stop assuming bad faith and try to understand other perspectives than the one you have.
Any Nigger versus Any Nigger
> I can promise you that the folks at YouTube are working very hard on porting to the specs that are supported crossbrowser.

I'm sure the folks at YouTube are working very hard on porting to the Web standard, but the truth of the matter is:

1. Non-Polymer YouTube works just fine, and yet isn't served on Firefox and Edge;

2. Chrome shipped and continues to support a Chrome-only "standard", which is never going to be a Web standard, for some reason;

3. YouTube, a sibling product of Chrome, and supposedly a Web app, built a whole redesign around this when it wasn't even a Web standard, or even available in more than one browser, and now apparently can't do without, without dragging every browser that YouTube is not related to down.

On these counts, the apparent favouritism is clear.

> there were just some changes between v0 and v1 that are hard to paper over

I believe you. I also see that there's a polyfill for this. And yet, YouTube doesn't (need to) use it in the one browser that it's parent company makes?

> My understanding is that if it weren't for spectre, cross-browser Google Earth would very likely be shipping today. There is a web assembly version of Earth, but it needs threads and SharedArrayBuffer, which is disabled in most browsers today because of spectre-class security issues.

You mean, if it weren't for Spectre, a Web version of Google Earth would very likely be shipping today, using WebAssembly. Google Earth is currently available for the desktop in these forms: A native version, and a Chrome app. Yes, Chrome also happens to be a browser, but it is not just a browser, and Google Earth does (heavily) depend on its non-browser parts.

So, naturally, questions arise:

1. If it weren't for things like Google Earth and Hangouts, would Chrome's NativeClient still be around?

2. If it weren't for Chrome's NativeClient, could Google Earth and Hangouts have become the products that they have?

The answer to the second is easy: Hangouts did exist as an NPAPI plugin for a while, and does currently work on non-Chrome browsers via WebRTC, so it certainly could have used the exact same features on Chrome, and Google Earth has always had an installable, native, desktop version.
> Employment isn't the end goal.

I'm glad to see you write that; it's an uncommon and unpopular view, despite the fact that really many people -- perhaps most -- would love to be liberated from a requirement to perform what fits into the social definition of "work".

Yet in a modern economy "work" fills several roles: access to resources of course (i.e. paycheck) but social ties and perhaps most importantly social status. This latter in particular is a modern invention of the Industrial Age yet, as people's lifespans are shorter than the epochs, it is assumed to be part of the natural order of things.

We can hope that in a future roboticised world where the marginal cost of production approaches nil, that the idea that your "job" determines your status can fade away.
No, Mearsheimer and Walt are very careful to not use particular words. They choose to not use "Jewish lobby", with the fig leaf that at least some Christian Zionists are on the same page and not literally every Jew is, despite the objective content of their book supporting the contention that Jewish organizations are both the most prominent and have the core agenda-setting function.
This is pretty funny, and it relates to the conversation we had in this post https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18674892 about whether or not setting up bait packages to be stolen was a good idea or not.
Yes, you create your own. In my example of the Instagram activity feed you'd point the view at instagram://activity-view or something like that in order to intercept the request and send a custom response. You could use the same method to "proxy" through to HTTP.
Exploring Abandoned Cabins   Vlogmas Day 15
And despite the claim, they are not a new invention - Anti-sea sickness googles and glasses have been around for almost a decade

http://www.oldsaltblog.com/2017/04/anti-sea-sickness-glasses...
I’ve ripped every Blu-Ray I’ve purchased easily with MakeMKV, probably a couple hundred. I dunno, but someone is making it seem easy....
Arisa Robot Is Helping Riders Navigate Tokyo Subways
Problems that I immediately see with the approach:

* No baseline or other orienting structure, so vertical shifts easily change meaning ("ab" turns to "bc"), same for rotations.

* No redundancy to allow for recognizing incomplete / garbled / damaged letters.

Both features are prominent in any machine-readable encoding (like bar codes or QR codes), and are relatively easy to find in any human script.

The idea behind making more compact visual representation of letters has merit. This particular implementation of it is impractical, though. It only looks acceptable on a demo page.

(While at it, I know two well-designed phonetic writing systems: Tengwar and Hangul. Neither is super compact, but both are easy to learn and read, because of the internal logic. Dotsies are way more arbitrary; they don't exploit any connections between letter or sounds they represent.)
I'm infuriated that the author would allege that Taleb has a better way to do this but just links to a highly technical paper instead of addressing it.
You know what's interesting, and perhaps a cruel fate, is that teenagers, and maybe even children, with worse skin likely get less skin-to-skin contact with other teenagers, family, etc., and perhaps further inhibiting their healthy biome/immune system later in life in a phenomenon that is not dissimilar to how Amish children's increased exposure to bacteria positively develops their immune systems. Someone should publish research on this.
Isn't this almost exactly what slashdot has?
There are many many admissions from FB themselves knowing about leaking data to apps, or via unsecured APIs.

Here is a (probably subset) list of past transgressions [1]

I ducked/DDGed that search in 10 seconds.

[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2018/04/10/facebooks-mar...
It's also just a smart policy for saving money on storage space, and not getting in trouble when someone uploads illegal content to your site.
Org-mode can do spreadsheet-like stuff too.

https://orgmode.org/manual/The-spreadsheet.html
> I'd draw some analogy between Scott Beaumont's behavior and China

You could be just as likely to draw the analogy with the USA.
Facebook is an "attractive nuisance" that they have failed to sufficiently secure and monitor, the same as if they left their hot tub uncovered and unlocked, and a neighbor kid climbed the fence and drowned.

Victim? No, neighborhood menace.
Also HDCP becomes an issue.
How do they cope with the interactions at the boundaries of the grid?
I moved to NYC in March. I pay more than 3.5k a month for rent.

The reason for that is that places with a reasonable commute time to and from flatiron are really terrible below ~3k, by the standards of most places which are not NYC or SF.

I worked remotely for more than two years before that, so my tolerance for commute was quite low (my NYC commute is about 20 minutes on average, and when I first moved here, it was sooo long), and I was coming from a place where ~1K/mo can get you 3000 sq ft plus a basement and over half an acre.
No. Aaron died because he put a rope around his own neck and tightened it to the point that he could not breathe. He put the rope around his neck because he was depressed and suicidal, both characteristics which were present in him before he came to the attention of any prosecutor.
Just want to jump in on this - I spent a significant amount of time in the print ad design world and something like this would be an easily justified expense.
Best solution proposed here! Put your money where your mouth is Taleb and Silver!

Btw, I read 3 of Taleb's books, 1 from Nate Silver. Both are pretty good. Taleb is the more original, but also more often-objectionable.
What exactly is Node.js?
Has he ever written code that was used in production and he was in charge of the project?
What applications is the hierarchical clustering approach MIPS's owner Wave is taking to designing ASICs for machine learning going to work best for? Deep learning?

Anybody with ASIC design experience have a view on whether what they've got will be competitive (along energy or speed dimension) with TPUs or whatever RISC-V solution NVIDIA is working on?
There's also Shavian and Quikscript for English, which handle the language phonetically. I think it's a big miss for any new writing system to keep a language with 38 or so sounds limited to 26 letters. Not to mention other languages that might want to use it.
Even works with paintings!

https://www.remove.bg/system/uploads/image/processed/c9ae8e5...
CelLab – Cellular Automata Lab
Reneé Girard has some interesting things to say about scapegoating.

> "Everywhere and always, when human beings either cannot or dare not take their anger out on the thing that has caused it, they unconsciously search for substitutes, and more often than not they find them."

Seeing the overwhelming vitriol towards Facebook (justified to a certain extent, but certainly over-indexed), I can't help but join you in this low-value conspiracy indulgence...

If Girard's prescription is true here, what really is the media so rampantly enraged about that they are seeking to continually beat the downed (arguably) dead horse that is Facebook's PR image?

* Is it an old-money / new-money thing? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/facebook-rupert-murdoch-thre...

* Is it related to an increasing coastal elite / tech / income-inequality distrust with the rest of America?

* Is it a trendy common-enemy for young intellectuals to frame as the next trope for "misused, oppressive power"?

* Is it anger and bargaining from the 2016 election fallout where the unhappy masses are working through the Stages of Grief and are searching for an object where to fixate the blame to move on?
"Smaller binary enables use of a lower-level cache, no? [0]"
No.
It would if all of the stuff was actually all in memory at once, and pulled in the stuff next to it.

IE you couldn't pull in function A without pulling in function B.
That is mostly not true[1].

This is why reordering mostly brings load time benefits instead of run time benefits.

The utility of PGO is mostly about knowing where to spend your time optimizing, and knowing what to do. That's a generalization.
There are certainly cases in inline/etc heavy code where it helps get the speed part right too. A lot of that is more often about "it lets the compiler spend it's inlining budget on inlining stuff that matters" than "it stops the compiler from blowing cache out".

I speak in generalities because there are always counterexamples.

There are cases where PGO makes things significantly worse, for example!

Last I remember (My job now means i don't have time to stay in the game), LLVM did not bother to optimize the cold regions for size, and GCC did.

[1] It depends on function sizes and page sizes and mlocking and section flags and all sorts of fun things, but i'm just going to assert the truth of this in most cases go make it simpler.
Contact archive.org, this is what they do.
Engineering the End of Fashion
I would love to see the Nate Silver point by point response to this post. I think it would be humorous, but also add some insights into his proprietary black box.

I listen to the 538 podcast every episode, and I think I agree with cm2012 that this is a case of mixing up the "nowcast" with the actual forecast.
"Ghost users" are also a class of protocol and UX bug in secure messengers that are worth looking for; you will find secure chat programs where it's possible to add a member to a group with a very strong chance of not alerting other members of the group, whereupon the E2E encryption scheme of the system does all the work of decrypting the messages for you.