Entrenched mindsets don't like for the flaws in their views to be highlighted. It's one of Humanity's most serious flaws. As far as AGI being 10-20 years away based purely on compute power, you can't make this statement accurately unless you have a firm understanding of the underlying algorithms that power human intelligence and by extension AGI. From there, you also need to have a formal education and deep industry experience with Hardware to know what its capabilities are today, what they will be in the future roadmap wise, and how to most efficiently map an AGI algorithm to them. I'd say that 0.1% of people have this understanding and nobody is listening to them.

> The real problem though (as I see it) is that the vast majority of the best and brightest minds in our society get lost to the demands of daily living. I've likely lost any shot I had at contributing in areas that will advance the state of the art since I graduated college 20 years ago. I think I'm hardly the exception. Without some kind of exit, winning the internet lottery basically like Elon Musk, we'll all likely see AGI come to be sometime in our lifetimes but without having had a hand in it.

They don't get lost so much as they become trapped for reasons due to systematic and flawed optimization structures found throughout society. All is not lost if one breaks out long enough to realize they can make certain pursuits if they are willing to make a sacrifice. The bigger the pursuit, the bigger the required sacrifice. Not many people are willing to do that in the valley when you have a quarter of a million dollar paycheck staring you in the face. You could of course make a decision to sacrifice everything one given day and you'd have 5 years of runway easily if you saved your money properly. Obviously, VC capital wont fund you. Obviously universities aren't the way to go given the obsession with Weak AI. Obviously no AI group will hire you unless you have a PhD and/or are obsessed with Weak AI. Obviously you might not even want this as it will cloud your mind. So, clearly, the way to make ground breaking progress is to walk off your job, fund a stretch of research yourself, and be willing to sacrifice everything. Quite the sacrifice? People will laugh at you. What happens if you fail? Socially, per the mainstream trend, you'll fall behind. If you have a partner, this will be even more difficult as the trend is to get rich quick, get promoted to management, buy a million dollar home, have kids, stay locked in a lucrative position at a company. And what of your pride? Indeed.. And therein is the true pursuit of AGI.

The winners are pushing fundamentally flawed AI techniques because it requires massive amounts of data and compute which is their primary business model. They wont succeed because they are optimizing a business model that is at the end of its cycle and not optimizing the pursuit of AGI.

AGI is coming and it is completely out of the scope of the current winners. If a person desires to pursue and develop AGI, they'd have to be bold enough to sacrifice everything... It's how all of the true discoveries are made for all of time and science. Nothing has changed but for reasons due to money primarily, when the historical learning lessons are far off enough people attempt to re-tell/re-invent the wheel in their favor.. Only to be reminded : Nothing has changed.

The individual discoverers change over time however for they learn from history.