skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
What’s wrong with a life insurance company getting a more accurate probability of me dying from some rare disease? Maybe my rates should be raised if there’s a higher risk of me kicking the bucket. This works both ways too - my DNA can reveal that I will likely live a long premium-paying life. Insurance companies make money by being accurate, not by under or overestimating the risks. If DNA helps them be more accurate, good, maybe you can receive some of that value from improved efficiency.
I'm just curious what people think about this imaginary scenario.

Let say an opponent already have satellites in space with laser weapons, could they just destroy the GPS satellites using such a tech ? Or do you guys think that this technology does not exists ?

We saw some videos in recent years of NASA laser weapons taking down planes. That's why I'm thinking about this. Maybe the distance in space would make it impossible... I have no clue.
That was my point. Apple is so afraid/lazy that they don't implement useful features and cut out widely used ones.
Google Drive is about to hit 1B users
OK well I admire your commitment to the philosophical position... even so, please don't eat batteries.
>The article conspicuously doesn't mention his party.

Which, I've always felt, is how it should be.
Market would be expecting the direction, but underestimated how fast it would be. Or the revenue growth numbers are about on expectation but the size of the margin decline is unexpected.
>It's precisely the case where you're not committed to a "team" forever and ever that knowing which party a representative belongs to would be an informative data point. Whether they are doing something notably sensible or dumb.

Quite the opposite for me. Because I'm not committed to a team, I have little reason to care, and that piece of information is not at all informative for me. I vote for people, not parties.
Semi-related, this recent Radiolab episode:

> Anne Adams was a brilliant biologist. But when her son Alex was in a bad car accident, she decided to stay home to help him recover. And then, rather suddenly, she decided to quit science altogether and become a full-time artist. After that, her husband Robert Adams tells us, she just painted and painted and painted. First houses and buildings, then a series of paintings involving strawberries, and then ... "Bolero."

> At some point, Anne became obsessed with Maurice Ravel's famous composition and decided to put an elaborate visual rendition of the song to canvas. She called it "Unraveling Bolero." But at the time, she had no idea that both she and Ravel would themselves unravel shortly after their experiences with this odd piece of music. Arbie Orenstein tells us what happened to Ravel after he wrote "Bolero," and neurologist Bruce Miller helps us understand how, for both Anne and Ravel, "Bolero" might have been the first symptom of a deadly disease.

https://academic.oup.com/brain/article/131/1/39/346188

https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/unraveling-bolero
Android 8 adopted this style of backgrounding a year ago. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/09/android-8-0-oreo-tho...
I have seen no real evidence of that. I would actually prefer if they did, as contempt for property rights helped many countries and companies become competitive. And there are many economists with a dislike of intellectual property, mostly austrians, who are also fiercly pro capitalism.

It is also in line with what many say for startups: ideas do not count, only the execution.

I hope this answers your questions about me. I am here to share ideas, and I am happy to explain my reasoning if needed.
I mean, did they work at all? GPS was around in the 70's/80's, just not in any way that was useful for civilian purposes.
> And anyways, what country has the budget to knock out twenty four satellites in quick succession?

China and USA. Any war that they don't participate in is anyway irrelevant on the global scene.
If the company was acquired by a Huawei partner, doesn't that mean the reproduction was legitimate in this case?
24 is the minimum number, 33 is the target number, there are currently 31 active, and 9 in testing/reserve some of which could be activated if need be.

(according to Wikipedia, this discussion got me to read more about it)
"I care about companies not making moral judgements on behalf of their employees."

This is absurd. Of course companies need to enforce some form of morality among its employees, for instance by having an anti-murder policy or by firing employees who shout racist epitaphs at quarterly meetings. The question is just where to draw the line.

"What if instead, a company morally objected to halal slaughter and refused to reimburse employees for halal meals? What if they decided coffee production was too likely to have involved child labour and so that's off the list too. Surgery deserts make people fat and can lead to diabities, can't go paying for that either."

Sounds terrifying. One day, those fascist may ask people to quit drinking on the job, enforce a no-drug policy, ask people to adhere to a dress-code, and prohibit them from carrying firearms on their desk job. Or wait, did I just take your slippery slope fallacy in the wrong direction?

"For what it's worth 3 of my sister's are vegan. My mother has been vegetarian since the age of 9. So it's fair to say I've eaten my fair share of meat free meals."

For the sake of your health, I sure hope you have eaten meals without meat every once in a while.
I never used live bookmarks, but I did find the subscribe button handy on RSS/Atom feeds - I wonder why that part of the codebase is hard to keep.

These days I am using FeedBro[1] but I don't like that it isn't open source and has poor/non-existent keyboard navigation support.

I used to get on well with NewsFox[2] before Mozilla killed legacy extensions.

[1]: https://nodetics.com/feedbro/

[2]: http://newsfox.mozdev.org/
Having worked with H-1B "principal engineers" who can't write a bash script, I'm thinking yes, this is true.
We could also sort of say that "physician" is Greek for "naturalist".

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%CF%86%CF%85%CF%83%CE%B9%CE%B...

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/naturalis#Etymology
"Other disputed estimates, such as the 2006 Lancet study and the 2007 Opinion Research Business (ORB) survey—which likely overestimate mortality—put the numbers as high as 655,000 total deaths as of June 2006 (over 90% of them violent) and 1.2 million violent deaths as of August 2007 respectively. Meanwhile, body counts—which likely underestimate mortality—put the numbers as low as 110,000 violent deaths as of April 2009"

The Wikipedia summary needs editing. The paragraph has a lot of weasel words. Who decides what is credible? Who decides what is likely an underestimate? And AFAIK, all the estimates are disputed - yet someone will get the impression that the Lancet ones are the disputed ones and not the PLOS one.
> I don't have a subjective first person experience.

Everything you mentioned after this were mechanisms, however inefficient or poorly documented, that support your functioning day-to-day and are practically irrelevant for supporting your argument that you don't have a subjective first person experience. If you explained those mechanisms and "documented" them then all you would be doing is explaining one way your consciousness is fed data whilst still leaving the original question on the table.

At the heart of what constitutes you as an "I" is someone who can experience eating chocolate or taking a warm shower. There is a you that feels what it is like to do these activities.
that explains recent what looks like layoffs at FB. I was surprised to learn that several people in my extended network have been very recently and unexpectedly kicked out from FB.
Docker containers running on Linode with a bit of Ansible for deployment automation.
Options are one of the best tools we have to price uncertainty in the value of publicly traded companies. The option prices allow you, using Black Scholes, to calculate an implied volatility that can be used quite similarly to the error bars on a measurement.

The EMH would say that a company's stock price accurately reflects all current knowledge about a stock's underlying value. So from the point of view of an investor in publicly traded companies, a stock's price and its underlying value are the same thing.

Options have an expiration date because as the further you go out the more uncertain things are, and the harder it becomes to make a market in options in a way that (a) won't result in a high chance of losses and (b) will have someone actually willing to buy them. That's why you don't see 10, 20 or 50 year options.

That doesn't hurt their value for pricing uncertainty because as options expire, new ones are minted. Therefore, you can always use them to price the uncertainty of the price to the next quarter, the next 6 months or the next year.
What country? Russia or China.

They don't have to take them all out at once. Just the threat of the system going sown at any time is enough to make it unreliant.
I don't think this post should be flagged or removed. Though HN is a proprietary platform owned by a commercial entity, discussions like these could help improve things (as long as we don't spend every other day discussing it). A separate "Meta HN" discussion board could help keep these discussions isolated.

I don't think downvoting is getting out of control, but my memory makes it seem like the the ratio of

downvoting for disagreement : downvoting for quality of discussion

has increased over time.

When I crossed the karma threshold for being able to downvote, I mostly adhered to downvoting as an indicator of off topic, irrelevant and trolling content, because I thought that's what HN was about. Then I read Paul Graham's old comment that it's ok and acceptable on HN to downvote as a sign of disagreement, and so I changed my behavior to use it for that purpose too.

I try to lift what look like unnecessarily downvoted comments by upvoting them. I try not to downvote as a knee jerk reaction on things I disagree with, but I don't follow it all the time.

One must also realize that these actions at an individual level don't matter much since karma points on HN are as unpredictable as airline ticket prices (actually, we're getting better at predicting the latter). One downvote is not always -1 karma, just like one upvote is not always +1 karma. My guess is that the graying of downvoted comments (which I dislike for UX reasons) depends on some kind of calculation based on number of downvotes, who downvoted the comment, the recency of the downvotes, and other factors. So one single person should not be able to game the system (even with multiple accounts) — that's the theory. It doesn't look like it works well in practice.
FB Options expiring this Friday had an implied volatility of about 100% before close of day.

A 20% drop in 2 trading days has around a 1/700 chance of happening under a Black-Scholes model.

So yes, this does happen in the market, but it's a reasonably rare event.

(As another data point on how rare this was, $190 puts were being sold for $0.3/share. Those are now worth $17, a 50x return)

Sources:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB/options?p=FB

https://www.hoadley.net/options/barrierprobs.aspx
Sounds like The Parable of the Two Programmers.

http://www.bruceblinn.com/parable.html
>What's the alternative--people stop developing Istanbul, Rome, etc entirely?

An alternative to squeezing a few billion more people onto our already massively overpopulated planet? Madness! (and certainly unpopular among the HN crowd)
BeiDou is actually more advanced as it supports full-duplex communication, which essentially allows you to send message to the satellites.
Yeah. One thing I'm wary about though is developing blind spots due to a) knowing Erlang and OTP very well and b) knowing rebar3 itself very well.

I'm sure there are plenty of tricky traps that regulars have learned to work around and "just know how to use it without breaking it"; I have a suspicion a lot of unsatisfied people are those who come with different expectations of what the tool should do and how it should behave.

In these cases, they'll have a frustrating experience. I'd be interested to learn what it is so that we can make the whole thing better.
Without some evidence, I don't think NCADV is a neutral source. (See their blog, https://ncadv.org/blog, where they post opinions on unrelated or very indirectly related matters. This is not a research organization but a political organization.) I've seen plenty of actual published, peer reviewed papers that show near equality of violence between the sexes and sometimes even more violence against men by women. I've seen plenty of advocacy groups claim hugely stacked ratios of violence against women, which is not what I see in scientific research. (If someone looks I'm sure a few articles can be cherry-picked that do that, but not a majority of them.)

Not that Wikipedia is a reliable source, but they do have citations anyone interested could look into, and they seem similar to the numbers I saw in my own reading.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domestic_violence_against_men

However, even on NCADV, I see "1 in 4 women and 1 in 7 men have been victims of severe physical violence by an intimate partner in their lifetime.1" That's a somewhat skewed ratio but I wouldn't call it a one-sided gendered issue. And I suspect the reason that only 1 in 7 men have been victims of "severe" violence is that men are harder for women to significantly injure, and women are easier for men to significantly injure, so you would assume women would be more often worse injured even assuming both are aggressors in a similar number of situations and using the same amount of aggression, with difference in outcomes for their victims due to their difference in strength.
All the other kids are doing it, must be a good time
The decline in trust in "experts" isn't because people are stupid, it's because even uneducated Americans are actually pretty smart, more than smart enough to know when they're being lied to. This applies to people on both sides of the issues, it's just that the people who prefer the liars' side pretend not to notice the lying since they perceive it as beneficial to their interests.
By the way, how does the Gumroad integration and license checking work? You get the extension files to download on purchase?

I'm integrating Paddle for payments into my extension. It requires you to implement user accounts or license keys yourself though.
https://kottke.org/18/06/a-sad-update-about-a-scissors-maker...

The cultural pressure not to fail is so immense that it drives people insane. I watched it firsthand with my friend's father. He mismanaged the business into the ground and never really got over that. Trying again doesn't even come into his mind.

And that same mentality is very often the way we bring up children. Play it safe. Get a good job. Prioritize work over your own desires. Sacrifice yourself for others. And whatever you do, make sure it goes well.
>This is the main barometer that I use to see if I live in an echo chamber or not and orient myself in the world. The people I listen to (Rogan, Peterson, Weinsteins, Rubin, and to a lesser extent Shapiro and Harris) tend not to speak authoritatively except in narrow circumstances and their opponents (and people I disagree with) tend to speak as if their opinions are self-evidently correct and disagreement is out of the question.

I've found it to be a useful tool in other spheres as well.

The further you are from mainstream medicine, the greater the confidence signaling. Doctors tend to express the least confidence, and crackpots the most. This is why alternative medicine thrives.
Those are government actions.. and if you want the reasoning, then you can read the report from the congressional investigation into Huawai and ZTE:
https://intelligence.house.gov/sites/intelligence.house.gov/...

Until the findings of that report have been reversed, Huawai will continue to find the US Government hostile to their actions, and willing to put up roadblocks wherever they can to stop Huawai's entry into the US market.
> frees dev cycles to focus on performance

Perhaps this is the case--jQuery saved them so much time that they've reached a point where they are free to optimize their frontend by removing jQuery.
Reevaluate assumptions, indeed!

We've just had this alert from DHS on RUS hacking into our grid:
https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/611708/russian...

The preliminary R&D and tests seem to have been run in Ukraine
https://www.eenews.net/special_reports/the_hack

Clearly, it's being tracked, but ...
Google's New Book: The Site Reliability Workbook
They certainly sound like the answer for me!
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The thing to remember about the Apple store is that it made world class computers accessible to the masses.

In the old days, a Thinkpad or Toshiba Tecra were only seen by commercial accounts and college kids. Your only way to see and touch an expensive ($2k in 98-2000) purchase was some awful bolted down display at CompUSA or BestBuy. And you only saw shitty consumer product, and were stuck dealing with a salesman of questionable knowledge looking for a warranty spiff.

The Microsoft vs Apple store thing is easy — they are selling the same dreck, spiffed up with a few first party products.
Mixed Outlook for Semiconductor Industry
Facebook Starts Paying a Price for Scandals
> what country has the budget to knock out twenty four satellites in quick succession?

The only countries between whom a war would be a globally consequential event: the United States, China, and Russia.
This is interesting. I would consider the number of maximum possible people who can have a Facebook account is probably closer to 3.07 billion - 772 million internet users in China [1], which means closer to 2.3 billion.

I doubt Facebook, at 2.23 billion users is that close to making all possible users MAUs (96.95% penetration? Yikes!), which makes me believe the age distribution of Internet users is different.

Counting bots, this moves to (2.23 billion - 270 million [2]) / 2.3 billion = ~85.22%. This is still very high, but interestingly closer to the number at which Facebook users maybe have stabilized in the US/Canada region. I wrote a comment on another thread about this (sources referenced are on the original comment):

"I can see the decline in Europe being unsettling, but I'm not really surprised about US/Canada. ~185 million is about 52% of the population of US/Canada. If we assume 35% of the population is simply too young to use it (20% under 14) or too old to be drawn to it (15% is over 65), that leaves only 13% of US/Canada's population which are feasible MAUs no being MAU, which is crazy." [3]

I'm guessing here that Facebook has reached 87% of possible users in the region, based on age as an approximation for internet/Facebook use. I wonder how far off these quick calculations are ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

[1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/265140/number-of-interne...
[2]: https://mashable.com/2017/11/02/facebook-phony-accounts-admi...
[3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17614830
The original Threefold Model/GDS theory FAQ is engagingly written, very persuasive and well worth anyone's time http://www.darkshire.net/~jhkim/rpg/theory/threefold/ . I feel you start to hit diminishing returns after that.
> As far as the Cambridge story - this is also misleading because the API's that were used there were available to the entire world and everyone knew exactly what they were

That was actually the entire point. That Facebook had these overly... generous APIs for anyone to use. That's not a good thing.
Which is why we need legislation to prevent exclusion of significant minorities be they the disabled or poorer people. I'm more than comfortable for businesses that wish to trade on the high street to be required to fit a ramp to their doorway, inductive coils for hearing aids, and required to take cash.

If we end up cashless it will be the poor and elderly who will have the most difficulty. Even now, well over 10 years after the switch, it's reasonably common to see elderly folks in supermarket or bank struggling with chip and PIN.
React components mount to any element you want. And everything they do will happen within that element if you are using react conventionally. There is no issue mounting components alongside/inside legacy apps.
So in the limit case where 100% of the STEM employment is foreign the average wages of native workers will be 220% higher than they are now? What mechanism will achieve this remarkable result?
If you're interested in a more detailed survey of rpg theory I highly recommend the recently published "Role-Playing Game Studies: A Transmedia Approach" and specifically the chapter "RPG Theorizing by Designers and Players". For a much broader historical work there's also Playing at the World by Jon Peterson. For something more bite sized (and free) check out http://analoggamestudies.org/
To my mind, the Fermi Paradox isn't so much about explaining an absence of life. It's the simple observation that, if life were abundant in the universe, the naïve expectation is that we'd see it everywhere, but we don't, so what gives?

Intuitively, I see it like a bunch of homemade pickles. Say we have 100 jars of homemade pickles but are not sure whether they actually picked nicely or spoiled. If we try a jar and it's bad, we'd probably expect that a lot of the jars have gone bad.

That said, the anthropic principle complicates this intuition. Our sun isn't a random star that happens to harbor life; since we're sapiently asking this question, it's guaranteed to harbor life.

It's almost as if someome tested our pickle jars for us and then just told us that at least one of them was spoiled. In this case, "what is the likely number of bad pickle jars?"

Anyway, the discussion gets even more nuanced and interesting once we start thinking about the likely futures of human civilization, and factoring that into the mix, but I'll stop here.