Likewise, thanks for the great questions.

1) I understand why you might look at that post as creating fear (because yes, NK is/was a potential threat and that's worth saying), but IMO it intentionally did the opposite among the audience it was intended for.

The Prepared is a site for rational prepping. Most of our audience sees really crazy garbage from other preparedness sites, and it confuses them. Part of that is helping people accurately calibrate their fears. A lot of people thought that we were facing imminent attack. Some people thought "oh it'll be a nothingburger the way Iran is/was."

I think the more people understand what's actually happening and why, the better they can calibrate and address the threat. I felt the media had been failing to properly explain the dynamics, leaving people unable to gauge if/how/why/when things would boil over, so I wanted to add our perspective.

2) I think I did answer the question, but to rephrase: They gain through aggressive posturing, not things actually coming to blows. It's been part of their M.O. for decades, to intentionally exploit the international response models to aggression. They sabre rattle, get some concessions or food aid or propaganda fodder, appear to take a step back, then repeat. It's why they've already signed like 3-4 denuclearization agreements.

They have to toe the line and seem real in order to get the rewards the want.

Which is why I used the 10 yr old play fighting metaphor. It starts off without the intention of turning into a real fight, but the biggest risk is that it inadvertently does. We have two opposing leaders with massive inferiority complexes mixed with paranoia, low intelligence, extremist supporters, and military power.

3) I disagree with your comments on their Russia/China views. The regime knows they have only survived in part because of the patronage of Russia/China (and formerly the GDR/USSR/Libya/etc.) If they were to demonize Russia/China, that would hurt the only economic lifelines keeping things afloat.

Conversely, since the US sided with the south in the Korean war and still maintains a large military presence, it's very easy to position the US as a foreign invader.

They also rewrite history to remove things that would make people think the US is good. Namely, DPRK tells their citizens that the original Kim (grandfather) single-handedly defeated the Japanese occupation in WW2.

Perhaps some of it is simple xenophobia. It's easier to demonize someone very different than someone slightly different. Many westerners don't realize just how bad racism is in Asia.

4) You're correct that a lot of the Northerners who have escaped fail to adjust. Even the ones who go through the special "Truman Show" town-in-a-bubble as part of the South's transition support department have high failure rates, ending up homeless/alcoholic/whatever. Which is exactly why external countries don't suddenly want to support 22M refugees.

I also agree that the Arab Spring didn't do as much as it could've/should've for those populations. But I was referring to the path of how it came to that point, not the aftermath. And there are of course other examples where the same kind of path lead to positive outcomes.

The right proxy is to think of east Berlin or China through the 70s-90s. The more people in the east understood about life in the west, the more it helped them understand what's broken in their country, leading to resentment and a will for change. This is exactly why the Kims kept such a tighter lid on info than those failed peers.

So I think the most acceptable outcome is a path that takes ~10-15 years, with continuing snowballing of the # of people in DPRK who mentally question/disagree with the Kim regime. Maybe something happens like a famine or military coup attempt that kicks things over the edge.

Yes, DPRK has used language about modernizing etc. This is a big reason why they took the risk of opening up the cell network, why they're building more western creature comforts, etc.

It will end up looking like a shittier version of China, with China as the patron. More economic "freedom" (e.g. I was asked to teach entrepreneurship skills at the university in Pyongyang), more travel "freedom" (but vast majority will stay in DPRK), very tightly controlled info, one party system with de facto dictators, military protection from China with internal limits on nukes, etc. But it will be enough to appease citizens through an increase in middle class comfort goods like TV and sugar while turning down international pressure.

There's a chance that turmoil results in the north reunifying with the south, but I think it's less likely than the above scenario.