skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
"I can tell you that given a fixed size dataset, it is not possible to p-hack below a certain threshold in any meaningful way. My colleagues would’ve asked why the gigantic dataset we purchased had 1/4 of its observations thrown out etc."

This is only true if you haven't collected your own data, and the size of the original sample is known - and that you used all of it. I would suggest that a fixed, known sample size is a relatively rare outcome for many fields.

"Your claim that the threshold and the practice of p-hacking are orthogonal (independent?) is still puzzling to me."

The suggestion is they're unrelated. Changing to say, p = 0.005, will impact studies that aren't p-hacked, and does not p-hacking proof evidence. It potentially makes things more difficult, but not in a predictable and field-agnostic fashion.

"1) Would it take you more time to p-hack a lower threshold, or do all your results yield you a ~0.0000 p-value?"

It might take me more time - but I could also write a script that does the analysis in place and simply stops when I meet a criteria. The question is will it take me meaningfully more time - "run it over the weekend instead of overnight" isn't a meaningful obstacle.

"In simulation based research like yours, it seems to me that even other p-hacking “fixes” like forcing there to be a pre-announcement or sample size, sample structure, etc. wouldn’t address what you say you’re able to do. What can be done to fix it?"

My preference is to move past a reliance on significance testing and report effect sizes and measures of precision at the very least. If one must report a p-value, I'd also require the reporting of the minimum detectable effect size that could be obtained by your sample.

Pre-announcing sample size would...just be a huge pain in the ass, generally.
The only way I can see that we can ground this illusion, especially wrt. morality/ethics and values, is by observing that humans all have shared brain architecture, by virtue of evolution and reproduction. We have some shared intuitions in our firmware, which would serve well for the purpose of grounding e.g. morality.

This of course means that we've only delayed the problem until the point when we meet other minds with different architecture - be it aliens, sentient AIs, or whatever. But that's kind of the point the whole AI risk movement has been making - that values and intelligence are orthogonal; there's no reason to assume that an intelligent non-human mind will automatically share values and moral intuitions with us.
This is exactly how I feel. I'm 2/3 the way through a CS degree as a mature student. I feel like I've learned absolutely no programming at all.
Impostor syndrome gets talked about so much in conference talks that I think we as an industry have started to classify all confidence problems as impostor syndrome and thats just inaccurate and unhelpful. Instead, there are a variety of things in work that can cause problems.
i cant think where i could possibly use this but it seems concise and easy to follow, so here i go..
Trends in Web Development Change Faster Than Implemented
I recommend materials or coursework by Pragmatic Marketing (https://www.pragmaticmarketing.com/), if you can take their class. It was kind of accepted as one of the standard training courses for this role in industry at several companies I either worked for or interviewed with.

This particular PDF [1] really helped me understand the roles better.

I also read the book "The Product Manager's Survival Guide" (ISBN-10: 007180546X) and found it to be a pretty good basic introduction, when I needed it.

Lastly, nothing beats having cross-disciplinary experience by chance in any job. What lead me into product management was always "getting stuck in the middle" because I was equally capable of being technical as well as talking with a user and understanding their needs. I was more of a Technical Product Manager, however, than a pure Product Manager (an important distinction).

[1] This is a legit download - "The Strategic Role of Product Management" it's a link to a PDF on the Pragmatic Marketing website - https://cdn.agilitycms.com/pragmatic-marketing-v2/SRPM_PM180...
"Mother of all wars" is probably an accurate forecast, though. Likewise for "mother of all peace" knowing just how much the younger Persian population idolizes those of us in the United States.

Keep in mind the last time the US funded a public engagement against Iran (by bankrolling Iraq and feeding Saddam with weapons), it resulted in a draw. A future engagement is entirely winnable by the US, but good lord at what cost? We're talking an engagement that might potentially run a century, at least if Persian grudges are anything to consider.

Disclosure: Persian background. Not at all in favor of the current Iranian government to the point where I wouldn't even bother flying to Iran to pay family a visit, but I've got enough exposure to the culture to know exactly why such an engagement will never end. Color me overly optimistic, but I feel like the Obama approach was working.
There are Evangelical Anglicans [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evangelical_Anglicanism ] too (though Lewis wasn't one as far as I know).
PMP is for project management, relevant to product management, but perhaps a particular set of tools within the broader domain of product management.
Do bars really sell well liquor at a loss? I've never heard that and I can't imagine that being true just from my experience as a customer in bars.

Even if a Rum & Coke is 5 dollars (I'm used to it being more around 8-10$ on average, but being conservative), the unit economics still seem extremely profitable to me. I would think the coke from the fountain costs pennies, and the shot of (well) rum would be max one dollar.
Have you ever used the computer to make something for yourself? A personal project? Even a clever hack with a spreadsheet to save some time?

Congrats. You're a Programmer. (And probably in the top 10% of all "computer geeks" everywhere). Someone wants to hire you.
New Understanding of Telomere Structure Could Impact Cancer Research
I anticipate that I won't be able to cry when my parents die. I really hope I'm wrong. Reason is that I think they have great lives and are fulfilled so in my eyes it doesn't matter if they are 60 or 80y/o when they die. They have a good time on earth. It's helpful that I know about their childhoods and don't have any open questions because I've talked with them a lot about who they are. I don't think I'll be regretful when they die and have the wish to ask them something.

It sounds like tragedy is the cause for this rapid improvement in emotional processing. Maybe it's the only emotional state that can break down this wall of emotionlessness. Sounds painful, but I can understand how it could help.
Dude it took me a whole year in the industry to feel like I knew ANYTHING about programming. Don't be discourage by that feeling, and don't let other's outwards confidence fool you. Were all 10 years olds pretending to be adults.
> maybe a somewhat slicker and more cinematic visualization of expected effects around a black hole, but correct visualizations had already been done before.

Yeah, if those visualizations are like most scientific visualizations, then they're likely piece of crap. They're likely some low-definition MATLAB frames or a half-assed Java applet that generates visuals comprehensible only by other astrophysicists with powerful imaginations.

There is a great value in taking such work and turning it into accurate, high-resolution renderings of cinematic quality. It makes it easier on imagination, it can reach and interest much wider audience. Hell, thanks to Interstellar's success, we can see newer works of fiction not screwing up their black hole visualizations the way pre-Interstellar fiction always did (even though "correct visualizations had already been done before").
I don't see what Islam or irrational wiki or racism has to do with unix programming and the book. Your political beliefs contradicting with ones of the author does not make a programming book bad.
Yeah, I'm aware of the BIOS option, but haven't seen any reliably sourced info on what its exact effect is.
A bit OT but seeing that it seems hard to find a license that applies to this use case, would it be possible to just define your own custom license?
> Yes, of course, with cloud infrastructure or just virtualization and spare hardware, service contracts have much less value.

My assertion is that service contracts for hardware have zero value for commodity hardware installations (beyond trivial size). To whit, they are, invariably, a scam.

Server hardware fails vanishingly rarely, with specific, notable exceptions of certain components. Those exceptions have predictable [1] failure rates that are therefore straightforward to budget and/or engineer around. Managers don't know to insist on this, so the scam persists.

This was true even before the advent/popularity of virtualization (and therefore "cloud" techniques).

It's also true regardless of whether or not one keeps spares on hand. With commodity hardware, vendors always have plenty of spares.. one just hasn't purchased them in advance, so there's an increased latency (not entirely unlike the spares available under a service contract).

> It's not the commodity hardware - x86 servers have been mostly commodity hardware for decades - it's virtualization (or other rapid recovery and migration tech) that makes it work.

That's where I disagree, at least partly, if I understand correctly the kind of tech you're referring to.

Those software solutions are generally just about convenience, or, ideally, reducing recovery time in the case of a non-redundant architecture. Even then, they might turn hours into minutes, not weeks into minutes.

More importantly, it's not that software that makes this work. It's the commodity hardware (and, arguably, commodity software/firmware hiding within) that makes it work. If a disk fails, any same or larger [1] can be used as a replacement. Same for RAM or even full servers. It doesn't have to be the same brand because that's the point of it being a commodity. That fact completely eliminates any problem of being down for a week due to hardware failure. In a major tech hub city, getting something delivered same day might not even require paying a premium.

Before virtualization or any similar abstraction layer, one could just move disks to a new server (best case) or restore from a backup (worst case).

[1] Other than "black swan" events like the flooding in Thailand that wrecked predictability (and reliability overall) for a generation of HDDs. Even then, if one made assumptions based on warranty length changes, those would have been close enough.

[2] Well, OK, one does have to be careful to meet minimum performance, especially for SSDs, but even a failure there won't kill basic functionality
You need to know how the character is written regardless because the stroke order is part of the character. There are some basic rules like working left to right and top to bottom. Also, each component has the same order when written out.
We're not talking about the minority of kids here. Yes, there are tons of other teens like you who code and use computers. But look at the majority of younger kids at your school. What devices are they on?
Maybe asking HN people isn't the best way to decide. Please also consider talking to a career counselor (or similar) or reading a book based on evidence.
You have several options. This is what I would do in your place.

First, I would forget about interview-prep.

Second, I would try to get better idea about actual work, call friends from university that already work, and talk to them. I did learn this way that the day-to-day work in i.e. big corporations in a well run department is not really stressful, especially compared to a white-board interview. Some friend might even have an opening. Going through a referal is much better than just applying.

If you don't have friends with jobs already go ask on twitter. I think people around i.e. @sehurlburt form quite a friendly developer community and Stephanie herself often retweets i.e junior CVs.

Third, I'd figure out what position suits me. I would do this after I have realistic expectations about my work-environment. If programming itself is that stressful, I would probably advise-against doing ops-work, because baby-sitting servers can be even more stressful. But there are many positions that might fit you.

Manager - even though in many corps, people view getting to management as a promotion, there actually are junior managment position. Requires mostly people and organizational skills. Having a CS degree should help you stand apart.

Technical writer - mostly means writing documentation. If you have good writing ability, having a CS degree should be a plus.

QA - mostly software testing. Skill requirements can vastly differ, i.e. my boss expects me to be a decent coder, with some ops-experience. A friend of mine has 101 Javascript under his belt and in different corp mostly produces test-case documents in Word, another friend mostly clicks through a web portal based on a giant checklist. All of us have the title QA in their org.

You still might want to be a programmer. There are many levels of skill/stress/benefit ratios available.

If getting a job over a beer/coffer with a friend whose department/company has open position is not an option, I would go to a job-fair, or if I'd have a company I actually like, I'd wait for when they have an open-house, or something like that. I would talk to a recruiter there. That is how I got a job at RedHat as a QA more or less :-)
Ugh, even other peoples screens. Like seeing a macbook screen covered in fingerprints and oil is just the most disgusting thing ever.
I've known an english variant of the "flick" keyboard (MessageEase) since my first smartphone.

I find the flick/tap-and-drag gestures to be vastly more comfortable and natural than trying to use my thumbs to peck at a QWERTY soft keyboard and relying on predictive algorithms to make up the speed loss.

An additional benefit is that this approach provides more room for additional symbols and layers that are more of a bother to reach from standard soft-keyboards. For example, I can have a full set of programming symbols with Ctrl/Esc modifiers available without explicitly mode-switching the keyboard, it's extremely helpful when I'm ssh-ing from my phone.

For reference, with a physical QWERTY keyboard I average around 95 wpm, with messagease on my phone I run around 60 (without autocorrect/suggestions).
Kids BMX Bicycle Racing Stunts 2k18
More cases are showing up because the largest population boom in human history, the baby boomers, are just hitting the retirement age. This type of cancer is highly correlated with the population size unlike other cancers which may be correlated by diet such as liver cancer, from drinking alcohol, or lung cancer, from smoking.
To study and learn anything technical you really want to be in calm and serene state of mind. This state is easy to achieve. I apply Two Old Goats on my belly during the day time to resolve stomach knots and Vicks Vapor Rub on my feet and belly at night. Among many other things, tight stomach can cause skin inflammation which makes your complexion look terrible and post nasal drip which gives you bad breath and nasty taste in mouth. Resolving anxiety issues straight up kills these problems; also dramatically improves ability to retain info and deal with ugly problems.
Probably ASD, and military was great, but only in training and deployment to an actual war zone. Garrison was hell, all politics. Tried stripping too. War and stripping are similar: de-personalizing, over-stimulating, immediate flow state rush. Normal social anxieties go away, the rules no longer apply.
I'd go even further and apply the same level of distrust towards other aspects of the mind apart from feeling. Feeling, perception, intention, and consciousness all work together to create deception.
Emotions and feelings being a chemical imbalance of the brain causing irrational thought or actions. Yet this irrational thought is expressed, protected, and considered valid reason to justify actions in society.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if people acknowledged feelings yet did the rational thing ?
i can't help but very lol @ kubernetes as the successor to borg :0
There is something to the ideas expressed here which I think speak to your situation, specifically I note a lack of joy and play in your skill acquisition: https://www.physics.ohio-state.edu/~kilcup/262/feynman.html
2) A lottery ticket payout can also be very large, but it still doesn't make it a good bet. The problem is that you will have to go a long time with zero income and then suddenly you hit the jackpot (or go bankrupt). That's not conducive to running a business.

4) The leaders only "care" about this disruption in the sense that they may lose their jobs when people start protesting or disconnecting from the grid. They certainly don't have any fear of a competitor showing up and blowing them out of the market. So, there is no incentive to make a move that requires them to spend significant money.

The fact that the big commercial property owners in Southern California were doing massive arbitrage with their energy storage during the last heatwave tells me that CAISO is WAY behind the ball. There is no reason that CAISO shouldn't be doing arbitrage to itself. This was also matched by information from some of the local universities who have cogeneration but don't actually push energy back to the grid because the grid operators we too far behind the curve.

I see these same issues in other industries, as well. Cold chain, for instance. Lots of people at the top want better tracking, but everybody's business processes are ossified in concrete. And nobody is authorized to actually spend money. And extra information will simply make life worse for the people at the bottom actually carrying out all the work. You will spend years throwing yourself at the wall in that industry until something finally breaks. Or, at some point, someone like Amazon says "Thou shalt track everything and report it to us" and suddenly the entire cold chain industry has a heart attack. However, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

I actually don't get up to the Bay Area much anymore, but if I'm ever in that part of the world I'll give you a plink.
> If you replaced every atom in my body with a different atom of the same type, would I still be me? I would argue yes, that you've not made an identical copy of me.

I don't agree with everything Yudkowsky says, but he makes my point here:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bp8vnEciPA5TXSy6f/can-you-pr...

There is no "if you replaced every atom in your body". That's not even describable with what we know of the universe's fundamentals. It's an abstraction we layer on top so we can make sense of it. There is no useful debate about whether it's true or not, because it's just something we choose.

I'm not taking a position. I'm dissolving the question. I don't care if that's secretly "doing philosophy" or not. If it upsets you that I think there's no value in "thousands of years of debate" and things that most people would consider philosophy, prove me wrong.
> Your dog can run leashed next to your bike, it's a very common way to walk dogs. Or you could even walk, half a mile is super close.

Biking across a street with her beside me? No. She freezes sometimes when there's something like a dog or just a person she doesn't like in the distance, and she can be stubborn about running regardless. If I was biking at a speed she could keep up with then I might as well walk. And I wouldn't make her stay outside that long in extremely high or low temperatures, especially 10 minutes both ways.

> Yeah probably a bit. Go inside instead and sit down to eat, maybe?

Like I said, I like to bring my dog, and you can't bring doge inside a restaurant. Taking her with me there and giving her a bit of bacon/whatever has been a great positive reinforcement to make her see car rides as a positive.

> Even in a car, I would avoid a place like that, and find an alternate route. That just sounds like an accident waiting to happen, to be honest, no matter your mode of transport.

You're less visible in a bike. It's not a big deal with a car, I just go slow and stay prepared to stop. The speed limit the entire trip is 25mph at most.

>You get used to it extremely quickly, trust me :-)
> I know it's easiest to stick with what you know, but there's always an alternative.

In college I walked across campus for food daily. At my job training when I was in a hotel I walked to the nearby mall or Wendy's for food daily. I never particularly got used to freezing temperatures on my face (and sometimes texting gloves weren't enough for the hands) and very hot temperatures. Even in nice weather I didn't like all the walking college entailed. After all this I greatly appreciate having the option of driving, not to mention that I've come to enjoy driving in its own right.
Xfinity App on its beta version on Roku
There was a time when the WSJ wrote over and over articles with a negative slant about Apple, before Jobs came back. They would always describe them as "beleaguered" and similar terms. For some reason the "party line" changed, and it was quite striking to me. While it's undeniable that Apple was turned around, the sense of a manipulated narrative never left me. And while I don't trust Rupert Murdoch, this was before his involvement.
(off topic)

People can certainly use a term in a way contrary to the expectations and definitions used by the vast majority of other people, and then they shouldn't act surprised if they're either misunderstood, called incorrect, or perhaps most importantly, called out as being intentionally obtuse and confusing and asked to stop that. Language is descriptive rather than prescriptive, but descriptive language can still call some usages incorrect when they're exceedingly likely to be interpreted differently than the standard meaning and lead to unclear communication.

Several decades ago, before open source was nearly as widespread and before there were any popular definitions, it was understandable when people use the term rather fuzzily; everyone had their own understanding of it. That's not the case anymore.

In any case, the original point would still stand if stated as "that set of goals is incompatible with what the vast majority of people who use the term 'open source' would consider 'open source'", but that would be excessively verbose, would only serve to confuse the point with a needless distraction that wasn't part of the original topic, and would in particular distract from the more important point of "here's a possible way to do what you're trying to do without that problem".
This! Sales and solutions englineering is a ton of fun, applies both halves of your brain every day, and builds a great foundation wherever you want to go in your career. I actually went from 5 years as an engineer, to a sales engineer, in order to understand customers better. Couldnt be happier.