When the iPad was announced I was on the fence but what became apparent rather quickly was that there was an clear divide in opinion between those who had used the device and those that hadn't. Many pundits argued against its success on the basis that it couldn't replace any existing niche. While true, it created its own niche and replaced several devices for some of their functions.

But in no way did I predict the runaway success of the iPad.

After that became apparent I did make one prediction that I'll stand by: many clones will be announced, only a few of them will ship and they'll suck for at least the first year. Maybe two.

We're in year what? 9? of the iPod and yet the competition still isn't as slick. I see the same future for the iPad. There will be the iPad and "the rest".

As for Tim's arguments:

1. Phones aren't going away: agreed.

2. Pocket creep: disagree. I like the size of the iPhone 4. The 4"+ phones just seem a little too big;

3. 10" for sharing: I don't really accept the premise. I view the iPad as a very personal (even intimate) computing device. Passing it back and forth isn't really what I'd call sharing. You can do that with anything you can pick up. Sharing I would view as two or more people looking at it at the same time;

4. 7" for personal: disagree. Many people, myself include, love the size of the iPad. Eyesight comes into this as well, particularly for older users. 7" to me fails the pocket test and (imho) the pocket test will be the differentiator in form factors.

Also regarding weight: on the couch it sits on your lap. When lying down you rest it on your chest. When at a desk or table it's on that surface. On a plane I rest my arm on the armrest or lap and hold the iPad. Basically I'm never holding it in the air. I believe this is a common "beginner mistake". It's natural but you quickly learn better. Another common error: holding it by it's edge rather than your hand underneath in the center of gravity, which is much much easier.

5. No bigger: agree.

6. Battery life: agree. It seems Apple will be the king of battery life for some time to come.

7. Cameras: disagree. Cameras work for PCs and notebooks because the position (at the top of the screen, typically) is eye level. In none of the aforementioned positions would a front facing camera be at a natural or flattering position. I'm not saying cameras won't be added but I don't think the use case is as compelling as some make out.

Basically, who wants to look up someone's nostrils?

As for rear cameras, the weight issue once again comes into play. No one wants to hold it up.

8. Creativity: creative people will do creative things on tablets. Uncreative people won't. It's really as simple as that. Frankly, I found the argument that the iPad is purely a consumption device to be condescending, even pretentious. I do agree that you won't see any serious programming done on tablets. You need a keyboard, mouse and large display for that.

9. Aspect ratio: I can't see these things going to 16:10 or 16:9. They simply don't have the height for it (I make the same argument when some people inexplicably buy 19" widescreen monitors: they're letter boxes).

10. Games: tablets are great for these. I certainly play Angry Birds on my iPad.

Where I believe the Galaxy Tab really falls down is that it seems to be tied to carriers and a 2 year contract. That's a big fail right there and something the iPad got absolutely right.

Leaked prices also suggest it's $399... on a 2 year contract.