skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
A key purpose of the original paper is to inform policy to improve public funding of research [1]. Thus, to a first-order approximation, it should reflect realities. However, ...

The number of lucky and unlucky events in the paper (figure 5, page 8) are each around 5-7 events per agent on average, where 'lucky' is defined as doubling the capital (or success) accumulated so far and 'unlucky' as halving it. In the real world, how many regular people/scientists have that many career-defining events? Most are quite risk-averse, especially later in their careers. Some entrepreneurs could be exceptions but they are a small minority (single-digit percentage or fewer) [2].

This parameter (no. of big lucky/unlucky events) diminishes the role of talent in the simulation. In real life, most talented people can avoid having 5-7 big 'unlucky' events in their career. This renders the simulations questionable.

--> It's like saying talent doesn't matter much for blackjack players who regularly bet half of all their chips. Yes, if one gambles that much, then talent would probably matter relatively little. Do most people do something like that with their career? [3]

Research has shown that Log-Normal Distribution could fit data on real-world success as well as Power Law and sometimes better. [4] This suggests that multiple independent factors could play multiplicative roles in success. Talent, luck, grit, location of birth/childhood, educational opportunity, parental guidance, ambition, etc are some candidates. [5]

If several factors interacting multiplicatively influence success, the number of individuals who achieve success at a very high level would be quite small, as they need to 'score' high on several of them. This can be modeled quite well with Log-Normal Distribution.

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068

[2] As an entrepreneur myself, I would avoid betting half my capital unless the potential gain is far, far higher than doubling my capital. I believe most other entrepreneurs think similarly.

[3] Note that capital/success appears to be quite broadly defined in the paper, and can be interpreted to include expertise, reputation, and other resources as well as tangible capital.

[4] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.0212.pdf "Moreover, even if the data do not rule out the power-law model usually the evidence in its favour is not conclusive – some rivals, most notably the log-normal and stretched exponential distributions, are also plausible fits to wealth data."

[5] Note that luck as defined in the paper does not reflect factors like location of birth, educational opportunity, or parental guidance.
Checking hours of the business works well. The integration with Yelp has that done pretty well.

I've actually been super impressed with Siri. You can have it call you an uber, get the leading scorer from your favorite hockey team, contextually ask followup questions about a person you were searching, etc. I haven't used Siri in a long time (besides timers, weather, etc) and it has come so far since I did.
If anyone wants to know what this might look like, there's a former parse engineer called charity majors who's making honeycomb.io for this kind of observability. She talks a lot on twitter about having had access to tools while she was at fb and wanting to make tools like that for others to use. I've seen the tool. And once I understood it, it blew my mind. Check it out.
They might not be as nice as my swanky high rise

I mean... this isn’t how price comparisons work? You can rent a studio on Peachtree in Midtown for $1,000 a month if it isn’t “swanky”. It probably has the same square footage as that $2,500 “1 bedroom” in Manhattan. Living in a city isn’t cheap.
Yes, exactly my point. Blaming 'unions' for this is simplistic to the extreme. As oyhers have already mentioned many places around the world with strong unions still maintain far better, more advanced metros at far lower costs.
Reading this article, I've had a nagging feeling - ok, the founder may have presented a wrong picture, but isn't it the task of tech journalists to call them on that? I am sure some would always be fooled, but how comes pretty much all of them, according to the article, were fooled? And not by some ingenious heist that takes a genius to unravel, but by buying a device from another company, showing it to journalists and telling them "we invented this new awesome thing" and nobody is the wiser? Where's the added value in journalists then, are they reduced now to repackaging press-releases and writing "oh, we've got fooled again" postmortems? OK, let's say they don't have the expertise. A lot of people do. Did they ask those people and report what they are thinking? How comes then I am reading both "any person with med test background should have seen it" and "nobody was seeing it"? If a thing like this happened with some software system, there would be a place for deep redesign of monitoring and evaluation systems, that should have prevented such failure. Yet it happens again and again with reporting and as far as I can see no work is done to fix it.
And this is Qualcomm's fault how ? Google decided to single-source and force all the ecosystem on one or two chips; they're not even trying.
Please, Slack, kill the gateway and unleash the exodus to open, federated platforms like Matrix.
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On the contrary this is an extremely risk-averse strategy since it allows the deployment of autonomous cars to be done in a way deliberately minimizes accident risk on a granular basis. In any deployment scenario of autonomous vehicles there are probabilities of crashes given the inputs to the system: the route, the weather, the behavior of other drivers, etc. When I said "known to be safe" I was using shorthand for "given an extensive array of inputs like route, vehicle condition, time of day, weather, known traffic patterns, prior trip logs, etc, does this route have a sufficiently low Bayesian prior of probability of failure to reach the destination safely to justify the use of an autonomous vehicle, and if so, which combination of system/configuration/etc minimizes the risk?"

Consider the alternative: autonomous cars theoretically get no production use and then suddenly go "on sale" for any buyer to use them in whatever route or condition they want. This would result in an extremely chaotic situation where suddenly there is no opportunity for gradual production deployment to slowly find the edges of their capabilities (which in some cases could result in accidents) -- instead the whole buyer-base of autonomous cars would be exposed to those edge cases, in full, from the moment the cars became available.

edit: Also I'm not sure what you are asking about direct knowledge: I'm stating observations of reality that self driving cars are already being rolled out incrementally in places/routes that they are best suited to.
That would be no surprise.

I used to be a big TG fan but didn't even finish this season. A lot of my friends used to be TG fans, and they've also quit watching.

It's not too hard to believe that the C/H/M formula has run its course for a lot more people than just my small sphere of friends.
Your second paragraph is problematic. First, truly free markets are unlikely to be an accurate statement of where someone earned their money (e.g. the US is nowhere near that, so that excludes every wealthy American). Second, the use of earn -- does that exclude people who extract a large amount of money, like Martin Shrekli? Finally, it does not address the elephant in the room, that most people who have lots of money have inherited it, not necessarily earned it themselves.
The Premortem: How to Identify, Understand, and Mitigate Risk
Content Security Policy with Ruby on Rails
Do you think this sentence by Google was intentional?

“In 2017, one out of three new Android Wear watch owners also used an iPhone.”

In that, they found the three people that bought an Android Wear watch in 2017, and one of them had an iPhone.
Android Wear Hangouts?
Let's say the LIDAR on top breaks down while the car is on a trip and that the car manages to safely pull into a parking lot. You want to get it back to the shop to fix it. You could always send a tow truck, but if it has a steering wheel, it's a whole lot easier to just send a driver.
There's no comma or other separator between "Wear OS" and "By Google", nor is the font size smaller for "By Google", so can we assume that the full name is in fact "Wear OS By Google"?

- "Check out the new Wear OS By Google watch from Samsung!"

- "The new ASUS Smartwatch powered by Wear OS By Google"

- "Wear OS By Google vs watchOS: 10 ways they differ, you won't believe #9!"

It just rolls off the tongue.
Having watched similar series in the past, I would highly recommend some extra effort be put into the presentation - recording videos with no attention to lighting or sound makes it really hard to see and hear what's going on. Specifically for me, it's really hard to understand what's being said over the keyboard and reverb.

Some basic lighting (so your face isn't in shadows), a separate directional microphone (even a $40 snowball would help immensely), and potentially some sound baffling in the room would make a real difference to the video quality. Finally, dark colors with low contrasts encode quite poorly on YouTube; some of the code is rather hard to read.

I realize we're watching a software engineer and not an entertainer, but the payoff in the quality of the videos for relatively little effort and investment is remarkably big.
Good, now we just have one more format in addition to all the existing ones. (I'm too lazy to look up the xkcd link).
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>without focusing on how Chinese companies are entirely protected from foreign competition in their domestic market and that the Chinese government is forcing foreign companies wanting to do business there to share intellectual property with Chinese competitors.

The US had the same advantages early on when it was at its own growth stage to superpower, copying European inventions to bootstrap at first, and using tariffs, subsidies and such to protect the local economy, and using their diplomatic/military might later on to ensure favorable deals for their companies (even now, countries and leaders e.g. that think of trading their oil in other currencies are not staying around for long to do it).

e.g:

"[protectionist] policy was most prevalent in the 19th century. It attempted to restrain imports to protect Northern industries. It was opposed by Southern states that wanted free trade to expand cotton and other agricultural exports. Protectionist measures included tariffs and quotas on imported goods, along with subsidies and other means, to ensure fair competition between imported goods and local goods. In today's age the US is still highly protectionist, according to Global Trade Alert the US has adopted over 1000 protectionist measures since the Global Economic Crisis in 2008, more than any other country since"

https://www.bna.com/amazon-close-breaking-n57982085432/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-14/your-tax-...

>The fact that none of that triggered WTO action points to just how broken that orginization is.

Or that the power relations have changed, and its old masters are somewhat toothless.
UUCP links over 1200 baud modems, connecting only at night
for cheap rates, but stymied by busy signals, down hosts,
deep queues of other data, stalled daemons, out-of-date
routing tables. Trans-oceanic links had high costs and
limited available bandwidth, and priority queueing could
impose quite a delay.
Over the course of three decades, by repetitively touting the benefits of offshoring, outsourcing and reducing all trade barriers - the policies favored by its 'executive' readership, the Economist has essentially been advocating for exactly this to happen while acting like it wouldn't.
Planting GMOs kills so many bugs that it helps non-GMO crops
Build Your Own React https://github.com/hexacta/didact

Create Your Own Programming Language http://createyourproglang.com/

Build Your Own Sinatra: https://getgood.at/build-your-own/sinatra (disclaimer: I'm the author of this)

Vanilla JS series https://javascript30.com/

Super Tiny Compiler https://github.com/jamiebuilds/the-super-tiny-compiler
Why'd you make a new handle to keep oversharing your life story... I don't even
The article talks about how many years it’s been since Qualcomm even announced a new product in that line. That’s 2 years without a press release while Apple and Samsung shipped multiple hardware generations in the same time, and Qualcomm’s product was based on an old design & fab process which was behind Apple when it first shipped.
Please take a look at this list and tell me how many non US fabs you see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Intel_manufacturing_si...

GlobalFoundries is more global, but there's only one fab in China.

A previous employer was a semiconductor company, and it was pretty clear that the high-tech fabs had to run in the US, and that only the older generations could be moved offshore.
Existing analysers already use very small samples.

See Siemens Advia 1800 specs under "Microvolume Technology"
https://www.healthcare.siemens.com/clinical-chemistry/system...

It only uses 30ul of sample to run up to 15 assays.

How is that any different from what Theranos was doing?

Only difference is that you collect a bigger vial when using the Siemens machine. And then don't use most of it. So why not collect a smaller vial?
Except they adjusted UK's membership. Then Cameron returned to the UK and won a referendum which he was supposed to lost.
Unfortunately there seems to be no end in sight to this crypto currency nonsense, and it has made GPUs double in price.

VR was already too expensive. Now it’s completely out of the question for most people. Adding an absurdly high res and high refresh HMD to the mix right now doesn’t seem like a good idea.
I don't know how can I go about measuring this (tho should not be that hard to come up with a scheme), but I'd rather not bother. One fact is that, on the keyboard I'm looking at, which is a laptop keyboard with a numpad, the home-end bunch are above the numpad, and the up arrow aligns with the enter key, the right arrow becoming a part of the numpad block, right under one. I have to move my hands to be able to use them. I can use the arrow keys with my right pinky, but that requires contorting the hand. Moving my hand either to the home-end row or to the arrow keys takes about a second, and if I'm not looking at them, I usually hit the wrong key, (usually PrtSc instead of home, so also some surprise there), whereas C/M-{FBNPAEfbnpae} are about always right under my hand. I write both prose and code in Emacs, each and every day, and I haven't counted, but I use those keys quite a bit when typing stuff in. Assuming I use them a hundred times a day (quite low of an estimate), I save about 200 seconds/day. Yes that's marginal, in numbers, but in effect, it makes it so that typing is way less burdensome. Not having to relocate the home row enables me to type more accurately without having to see where I am on the keyboard, and to delete mistaken characters when I haven't correctly located F and J under my indices, and I count that a gain, adding to that the many other keybindings in Emacs that use the FBNP keys in some ways.
This is properly hands-on as you have to make something :)
http://www.technoblogy.com/show?NMX

Click on the ATTiny85 tag for more projects. I've made / adapted quite a few of those. Great fun and challenging!
During John Marshall's tenure on the court, it was read broadly in favor of Congress.

But then we had the era of tortured readings of parts of the Constitution through which the Supreme Court basically tried to enforce a particular economic policy on the entire country. This was a time when progressive reformers were pushing for labor standards, bans on child labor, minimum wages and all the things we mostly take for granted today. And the Court hated that stuff philosophically, so they looked for ways to kill it. Sometimes the commerce clause would be read narrowly (if it could be used to strike down a federal regulation). Sometimes it would be read broadly but against the states (if it could strike down a state regulation). The Fourteenth Amendment was another popular choice of text at the time, with the Court reading it as having meant to establish not the equality before the law of black and white citizens, but rather a sanctity of contract and a condemnation of economic regulation beyond the wildest dreams of modern libertarians. This was the so-called "Lochner era" named after the keystone case of the Court's economic policy.

The swing back to broad Congressional regulatory power began with Franklin Roosevelt threatening to "pack" the Supreme Court with judges who would support him, leading the conservative members of the Court to realize they would lose no matter what and finally starting to allow some economic regulation to occur.

Then later in the 20th century the Court mostly stopped questioning assertions of the commerce power, except for some (in)famous flip-flops led by Scalia as he tried to find Commerce Clause justifications for striking down federal gun control while keeping federal drug prohibition.
Just making a branded VR game (ie. Zelda, Super Mario et al) would move VR hardware like hot cakes.
Seemed that way from the beginning. What kind of people become journalists?
Cameron actually got almost all of what he asked for in the membership deal. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105

As far as I can tell this was irrelevant to the result, and decades of fact-free Euroskepticism in the press won the day. Cameron also learned completely the wrong lessons from the Scottish Indyref.
I think it's good to think about their original intentions versus what happened, because for the PE firms the best case is to make a stronger company that can publicly IPO for billions of dollars. If they can't make that happen they run it into the ground and try to get out with what they can.
Has there been any report on how much data is actually uploaded back to Tesla? I would be pretty pissed as a owner for uploading all of my rides back for privacy as well as bandwidth reasons.
Making a mistake with a code may simply display
somewhere else - for example, on What3Words,
"banana rabbit monkey" is a location in Argentina,
"banana monkey rabbit" is in Russia.

Yes, and the open location code 6GCRPR6C+24 is in Nirobi, while 9GCRPR6C+24 is in Russia. Similar when I make a mistake in a UK postcode (N6 = London, M6 = Manchester)
FWIW, I don't think the US has much to fear. I'm working under the assumption that the US will keep their dominant position in tech, culture, and economy for at least the next 5 years. I have followed CN's gov dropping 340 BN into ML, robotics. Not worried.

For an orthogonal set of arguments that benefit the US, check 'the accidental superpower' (Geopolitics and demography make the EU and CN not likely to outdo the US all things considered; unless the US shoots itself in the foot with say a civil war)
+1

I've found that writing in LyX is faster than writing in Microsoft Word and friends. It forces you to focus on content (hence the WYSIWYM) and greatly accelerates equation entry with keyboard shortcuts and live preview.
Every time I've tried to follow the setup tutorial in that book I've not been able to get something basic to work, like the REPL or the flycheck parser. It's prevented me from really diving in to be honest.
They sold things more cheaply than other businesses could do. That's almost the purest example of benefiting others you can come up with, it's only one step short of literally putting money in their customer's pockets.
Amazon Prime on a Roku is a little better than Netflix on the same device, mainly due to Netflix not wanting to directly expose their inventory. If you add in the non-prime inventory Amazon on Roku is light-years better than Netflix and includes the ability to add e.g. HBO channels, etc.
The series moved to a channel called "Getting Real" where Jason Fried also publishes videos about design decisions.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdx5Dk3EWTe2i8YDA7bfl6g/vid...
>which have purposes from engineering to jewellery

Isn't using crypto as a currency equivalent to using precious metals as jewellery? Something like <10% of gold is used for industrial purposes and the rest is jewellery (superfluous personal adornment) and investment (value-storage). But compared to something like gold, cryptocurrencies at least have some valuable characteristics when used as an investment or financial tool: verifiable transactions, low-transaction cost, etc.
US imposes sanctions against 19 Russians over vote meddling
Ahh, didn't know that. Makes a ton of sense.
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> were a couple of very highly qualified and experienced economists

Name them.
I am very much complaining that it can't still do the things it used to do. Because mobile apps tend to rely on cloud services, and apps that rely on cloud services tend to be relatively quick to introduce breaking changes that cause old versions of the app to stop working properly, and at some point you stop being able to upgrade the app because of library compatibility issues.

To some extent, RMS is right on this subject: When your devices rely on the cloud, it means you don't really own them, because any cloud-dependent functionality continues to exist at the pleasure of others.
This is so incredibly exciting for bitcoin. I know this is only a beta and it's been in the works for a while, but many people didn't believe we'd see anything at all this soon.
Bain actually has a long history of successfully turning companies around via LBOs. So it's not that they are acting maliciously, but they are minimizing their risk and exposure in the event of a failure. And they way they do so is to push the exposure onto the downstream investors.
The people in question routinely bankrupt companies as a part of their method of operation. How is that possibly demonstrating an ability to manage resources at scale?
The OP is definitely serious. Some people just cannot stand TeX.
Not really comparable, art and code are generally original. Transposing competitive sports to software would be as if everybody competed year after year to see who implemented the best and fastest quicksort in C in the shortest amount of time for instance. It's not usually about expression, it's about perfecting something until you're the best at it.

I don't think there's anything wrong with that although like the parent I can't say that I find that particularly interesting myself.
Writing a garbage collector

http://journal.stuffwithstuff.com/2013/12/08/babys-first-gar...
Weird. Your account is 9 years old. You almost never comment. What leads you to believe Rakuten isn't still a force in Japan?

https://www.emarketer.com/Article/Amazons-Efforts-Japan-Rema...
The speed at which this has happened was essentially a gift from Western companies and governments either asleep or deliberately ignorant at the wheel. It seems incredibly short-sighted to have sold a hard-earned technological edge for a quick buck. Huawei, for instance, was essentially a Chinese government program to illegally reverse-engineer tech from American companies. And now they cry foul when their smartphones are kept out of Western markets! The nerve!

Still, it seems naïve to think the West's technological edge could be maintained forever, especially given China's massive population and penchant for being the global leader in scholarship from time to time throughout history. It's an interesting time in The West and hard not to be pessimistic about it. One specific concern I have about tech in China is the impunity with which they may pursue Eugenic human gene editing in the near future. Given The West's, uh, problematic, history with Eugenics, it's unlikely these pursuits would happen at scale again here. I doubt China would be constrained by the same concerns. And what if it... works?
So, what can I do with this?