I very much appreciate the reply (only saw it now).

I honestly don't know whether I or you are right or wrong. I know I am working with a limited data set (i.e. the people I have met and what I have read and absorbed online). Sounds like your experience is much the same, with the added benefit of doing this for a living via Indie Hackers (which is awesome btw). I am not aware of good places to find solid statistical data. Even if there were any, I'd say that they may not be valid - exactly for the reasons that you mentioned such as commitment, which is impossible to measure.

I think part of the problem is one of definition - what do we mean by "risk" really? If you mean the % of companies that, say, raised VC money but did not end up succeeding in the typical goal to reach $1B in valuation, is that actually risk? I don't think so - it is an outcome in the form of statistical probability for a specific goal, but it doesn't make sense to me to think of it as risk, at least with the common definition of the word from an entrepreneur's point of view. It may be a risk from the VC point of view, but that is rather unique because most entrepreneurs can't spread their bets.

That's why perhaps I should have used a word such as "effort." Making your goals smaller definitely gives you way more options - that much I 100% agree with. There are simply more ways to make $100K than $1M than $10M than $100M. But the effort does not seem to be any different from my (limited) experience. My friends working on bootstrapped companies have different problems - but are working just as hard as those with VC backing. The former are (sometimes) more in control of their companies since their goals are lower, while the latter find themselves chasing a bar that keeps rising. But both are working their butts off on a daily basis. I am not seeing things like competition being weaker or them having an easier time (again: limited data set so beware).

Experientially, my impression is that it is all about the product market fit. If that product market fit is strong and in a great market, the business is a powerboat that you can simply pour gas in to make it go faster and farther - as much as there is potential, which sometimes turns out to be a large enough for VC. On the other hand, if the business is a sailboat, then you are at the mercy of the winds. If they are in your favor and so strong that you can't keep the boat afloat, raising VC makes sense. But if they are not, then VC backing is a poor fit - gas is useless because it is finite and the moment you run out of it (i.e. out of cash), the winds will push you back or sink you or you will sit still. Most of the drama around financing stems directly from not understanding the nature of the business and therefore financing it incorrectly (e.g. aspirationally raising a VC round for what is really a non-VC company / sailboat). That's why the best companies rarely need a lot of money to show traction - because they have great product market fit in a fantastic market, which simply pulls them.

The thing is, you can't control or change product market fit. There seems to be a good chance you can't even analyze it without doing things. You discover the type of boat you have by getting out there and sailing.