This is for once a great article about Tesla that is neither too critical, nor too rosy. They actually do some intelligent estimations instead of just going with whatever anonymous "analysts" or "experts" in the financial markets say.

It's a real issue for Tesla if they don't figure out how to build 500,000 cars per year within the next 2-3 years because then they open up a flank for the traditional car manufacturers who probably need 3-4 years before they can market EVs that can compare in specs with model 3, most notably on range.

At around 200 miles/320 km, an EV has a range that makes it suitable as a second car for the masses (as opposed to the passionate enthusiasts that might buy in already at 100 miles or less). 200 miles is enough for driving around the city. Currently, the Tesla models, Chevrolet Bolt, Renault Zoe, the new Nissan Leafs, and Opel Ampera, have such ranges. This is the range segment that the traditional car manufacturers are likely to open their first real bids for competitive EVs in from this year and through the next 3-4 years. Tesla can live with that since the segment is insufficient for the masses. Average Joe will not buy an electric car with a 200 mile range. Ever.

At around 300 miles/480 km, an EV could be a real primary car if you live in regions with sufficient charging stations. Currently, only the larger Teslas and Model 3 are there. This is where Average Joe starts to buy. But the larger Teslas are too expensive for Average Joe. As for model 3, it can hardly be called a car for the masses until it is produced for the masses. And therein lies the problem. If Tesla doesn't nail this range segment for higher end of the medium priced cars produced at scale in the next 2-3 years, some of the traditional car manufacturers may catch up. Don't forget that even if Tesla reaches 350,000 cars in 2019, which is still a big if, they still leave most of the chips at the table. They will have to go way beyond 1M cars yearly to really close the upper medium price range for the traditional manufacturers. Even 500,000 cars would leave most of the market for a handful of it's competitors. And it would require one or two more Giga Factories to reach a million, which they haven't started to build yet. As for the lower priced cars, Tesla is not there yet, and the traditional car manufacturers may well get there before Tesla if they get to experiment for 4-5 years with the medium priced cars without loosing too much money. So Tesla really needs to hurry.

Around 400 miles/640 km, range is no longer an issue for almost any buyer. The few exceptions are buyers in rural areas or buyers that need to commute very far to and from work every day in cold weather or in mountain regions. A 100 mile commute to work in subzero temperatures, and/or in mountain regions would mean that you would have to be very sure that your car is fully charged every day, which would be too much of a hassle. But apart from such edge cases, most people could skip charging for a full working week and still use a car with 400 miles range for commutes. And on road trips, they could drive as far as is comfortable anyways, and if once every few years they needed to drive further than 400 miles, they would likely have passed several charging stations on the way. Currently, no cars are there, but Tesla will likely be first in this segment with the larger models S and X, quite possibly within 1-2 years. Those cars are not for the masses. It's not unreasonable to believe though, that model 3 will have such range in 3-4 years.

At 500 miles/800 km, the range issue is solved for 99 percent of potential buyers in the modern world. Tesla claims its new Roadster will have such range. It is still to be seen whether that is true, but anyways, that car is not for the masses. But maybe in 7-10 years, this will be standard in the smaller Teslas...