skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
There was a thread about this guy some time ago[1]. It was flagged. Not sure why.

1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15321438
"Life X years in the future" has been a popular topic for books and other media for some time now.

The predictors are usually quite wrong. However, in a few cases, they seem to hit the nail right on the head (cell phones). What I'd like to do is reverse engineer the insights or mindset the people who made accurate predictions so that they could be emulated.

At the same time, I want to identify the prejudices or logic errors of the people who are wrong (anti-gravity belts) to help avoid making the same mistakes.

Does anyone have any insight as to why some predictions turn out right? Is it just luck, or is there some greater principle that can help us find out what's ahead?
SolarWinds acquires Loggly
Fair, edited my comment.
I was curious about this statement also, because he doesn't present any evidence of different abilites in the memo. On a reddit AMA, he explained that he had actually removed the ability-related evidence, which isn't what you'd expect: instead of showing that women have less of an ability to code, the evidence suggests that women who have high math ability are more likely to have high verbal ability also, vis a vis men with high math ability. So women with high math ability have more options than men, on average, because they're likely to have more verbal ability as well. These women can then pursue jobs in other areas, whereas the men with high math ability don't have those options and therefore pursue things like coding.

I'm not weighing in on whether this evidence (which was based on SAT, IIRC) is correct or has been interpreted validly. I'm just pointing out that this was what Damore claimed (after the snafu arose—so take with at least a grain of salt) this statement was in reference to. I'd love to know if others have different information, especially if it was in earlier drafts of the doc.
Going privately to people who disagree with you and talking to them respectfully about the issue you disagree on is a start.
The differences between men and women are a legitimate topic of scientific inquiry, and therefore discussion. It should certainly be reasonable to explore whether differences in traits leads to differences in preferences or interests such as occupation.
I just don't think you understand the problem here.

Nobody is arguing that men and women aren't biologically different. Of course they are. The point is whether those biological differences significantly affect your ability to be a professional engineer.

And you or Damore have provided zero evidence of this.
Some cards (Tseng, and others too) allowed 132 column text modes, some even 160.
In resp to 2)

He wrote the memo in response to an event he attended where they asked for feedback. Are you saying that you can't provide feedback on a topic that a talk is about if you come to the "wrong" conclusion? I've attended diversity events and have seen opinions expressed in the open, to executives even, that were far less progressive than Damore's interpretation. I think this is just a coastal thing, having topics like diversity be verboten seems silly if we are also having meetings about, setting up programs for, and shifting our non-tech->tech career plotting to favor diverse candidates.
There are definitely some issues still on HN; I've had to argue with people here that think gay people don't deserve the right to get married and I've noticed people instantly downvoted into oblivion for mentioning that they're trans.
Wikipedia has never used their near monopoly to juice neighboring businesses.

Google has, for example:

* Used search to promote their yelp alternative (this is a big part of the EU antitrust case);

* used search to promote chrome;

* used search to attempt to compete with fb (having google+ bumped location in search results / gave you better display in search results)
That's one answer to the Fermi paradox.
Then they seem to randomly consolidate (I believe Hangouts was supposed to bring all that together, including SMS), only to do a complete 180 a few months later and split everything up again. I mean it's kind of absurd at this point.
> Preferences are also very complicated. People may prefer things very differently given the environment. That quote, along with many others, demonstrates the absolute lack of genuineness on the part of Damore.

I'm not sure how you get from (1) his logic seems flawed, to (2) he's being disingenuous. Can you please elaborate?
That's unlikely to be a fast change. We don't hand much power to 25 year olds and we are unlikely to alter anything close to 100% of babies in year zero, or even be making significant positive changes. So, it's really going to be a very slow transition all things considered.
The bubble pop will come when banks say they refuse to use any public cryptocurrency. If that happens (if, not when) then the hype will disappear rapidly and the market will continue growing organically. If it doesn't, then cryptocurrencies will differ from beanie babies (or tulips) in the sense that they are highly liquid and can lubricate real financial teansactions, and thus have value within the global financial system.

The other aspect I think the people calling bubbles are underestimating is the liquidity of information and assets through this network. Speculators will invest primarily in the forefront of cryptocurrencies technology - ICOs, low and middle-tier exchanges - looking for the next 100x. As coins grow the capital from established coins will spread and risk, hopefully, will also spread. Information on every coin is readily available and people are trading and chatting about these things all day every dat, so rumors and news should diffuse and keep prices in line. The technology will improve over time, hopefully to a point where the valuation is justified.

I'm not saying that will happen, but in my mind there is a plausible path, and that's enough for me to keep some money in.
Has that worked in the past?

I've never made a fuckup of nearly the same magnitude, but the times I made a mistake in public apologizing always made things worse.
It leaves the money with a distinct smell.
Skills matter. Personal opinions matter, too, when you broadcast them to an entire company.

Stop with the false dilemma; it's not an either/or choice between acceptable skills and acceptable behavior.
Ah, I was afraid of this. I wasn't really intending on starting flame wars or anything. They are just the posts I feel I have something to add. I'll attempt to diversify my comments.
Do you actually think that would get him anywhere?
Your comment reminds me of the book "The Sense of Style: The Thinking Person's Guide to Writing in the 21st Century" by Steven Pinker.

I highly recommend it. He talks about the effect of sentence flow on the brain and how sentences can be simplified.
> The iTunes reliance was annoying in general

Many people think that way, but I really much prefer to organise my music in iTunes than in the file system. (Even with iTunes, you can always go down to the file system if you want to, but try making a smart playlist in the file system alone...)

(Granted though that iTunes has become way too crowded with functionality now.)
I think this thesis is correct but it ignores the good things you can do.

I don’t think it is true for everyone .

I like texting people or using a messaging service . Yesterday I hanged out with my friend to code I wouldn’t have done that if I didn’t have a cell phone.

Today I used my phone to aid in my work activities .

Frequently I use my cell phone to write down notes about ideas during the day and learn new things (ML and program synthesis).

But, I know that I have bad habits that the author says in the text. I think you should take a balanced approach . Moderation is always a good idea .
And can you say that a type is indexed by, say, an even number? How do you prove that?
Also someone doesn't have to be a conservative to be sexist so... In fact many conservatives I know aren't sexist.
Direct link: http://gemini3.spacelog.org/00:01:52:26/#log-line-6746
In my experience it feels more like you're underclocked than overclocked. Sensations become so overwhelming at times it's hard to interpret them in ways that can be useful to you. I think in normal waking life, your brain interprets these sensations for you and narrows the amount your conscious mind actually has to deal with.
This is true. If the memo wasn't enough, him immediately going to right wing YouTubers like Stefan Molyneux, Jordan Peterson, Mike cernovich, Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin, Steven Crowder, etc. is suspicious. [1]

Generally I wouldn't have minded if he went to right wing outlets, as long as he had also gone to left wing outlets. I was willing to listen to his reasoning. But it became clear after the memo came out that he didn't engage with left wingers and maybe he was indeed just appealing to the right.

[1] I don't want to use "right wing" in a disparaging way. I think classical liberalism is perhaps right of center today. I think some of the right wing narratives make sense, but with big caveats. The far right is just a slip away, though. And they would hunt people like me down...

Edit: I don't mean right wing in a disparaging way. I enjoy Joe Rogan (his interviews with NDT and Lawrence Krause are a lot of fun), Dave Rubin (his interview with Faisal is fantastic) and Jordan Peterson. But they are clearly classical liberal, which is arguably right of center today.

Maybe I was extreme in saying far right is just a slip away. I think similar things can happen on the left too of course. Let just not go to the "far-*"...
Thanks for the feedback. My impression is that HN usually likes to see alternatives and similar products in the space when one is shared. I know I do, when I see a Show HN or even a general product share here, and is often the top comment. This space in particular is sparsely populated (indoor exercise tracking without specialized sensors) so if it's interesting to people, it may be hard to find other similar projects.

That said, I wanted to comment on the usability activation energy aspect as much as the shameless plug.
This clearly is (or is going to be) a Demon Thread. https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/BZtAavpsy9WtMYgEL/demon-th... . People seem to be angry about what was said in the past, but don't agree on what was actually said or what those things meant. Attempts to clarify seem to mostly be throwing fuel on the fire instead. None of this is helping.
source please (as in when he lied) ?
The social constructivism espoused by progressive supremacists is an affront to civilized society -- he has rightfully exposed the "work of so many" as fraudulent unscientific dogma akin to the gay-conversion therapy.
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And even if he did describe himself as such, the idea that all 'conservatives' are free-market absolutists is strange. The sort of free-market-first small-government-at-all-costs ideology has only in the past few decades become a fixture of US right-wing movements.
You think sociological explanations for why women are under-represented in tech are made up?
Years ago, I replaced the 20GB drive in mine with a 30GB drive, because I was having issues. It was pretty easy with my 4th-gen iPod. Turns out that the issues were actually in the USB interface, not the drive itself. So I struggled to get the drive re-filled, and haven't changed the data on it in...probably 7 or 8 years.
Rainbow's End by Vernor Vinge explores this a bit. Classroom distractions become students throwing up graphics in their shared AR and the one guy in the room that doesn't know how to access it is left out of the joke. It's been a while since I read it but I think one of the big plotlines was getting one of the older characters to finally learn how to use the shared AR.
There's some planning when skiing (for reference, I ski at A Basin yearly too; great place), but I think this is a bit of an exaggeration. Usually it's pretty easy to plan, esp. at A Basin to say, "meet at the midway restaurant".

And from a technological standpoint, all the maps that you can have printed are all online as well, so in the same way that Yellow Book entries are now database rows, maps are either primitive PNGs or interactive terrain maps.
This is exactly what the search engines have been attempting for the last 10 years.
George R. R. Martin (author of the Game of Thrones novel series that the HBO show is based on, probably one of the most well-known fiction writers in the world right now) actually uses WordStar 4.0 for DOS [1].

[1] https://www.rollingstone.com/movies/videos/george-r-r-martin...
5 things you didn’t know about Israel
I too recently had a problem where creating a graph with a topological sort was the answer. I am comfortable with graph theory ideas, but I had never heard of a topological sort, but easily found it with Google.

I have an education in engineering and I am entirely self-taught on the software side. I think the most valuable thing is learning and exposing yourself to as many ideas as possible. Once you know what "boxes to look in" constructing search terms and finding answers isn't that difficult.
He retired from everything relatively recently.
One possible reason is that a person can have beliefs that don't completely align with a given platform.

Another reason could be that it is easier to obtain emotional distance on a decision when you're not personally involved. Believing that something is best as an abstract policy doesn't always make it easy to believe it is best for you.

A third possibility is that he does believe that the market should decide, but that he also believes in taking full advantage of the system as it exists today.
The New “in” Keyword for C# 7.2
Google will settle this long before it goes to a jury.
This is the impact of Spectre and Meltdown
Well if you believe Kurzweil, we'll have achieved a technological singularity by that point.
It's never okay to destroy a man's life, but he made a poor choice to have his life destroyed.

I don't know why he did that. People do stupid things all the time.

Centuries of gender discrimination, in a field that is very publicly plagued by it, in a world that is still broken with it, what was Damore thinking?

Everyone has the freedom to act, but no one has freedom from the consequences of the act.
I know the differences between the two, perhaps I should've elaborated more. My point was that other than the Meissner effect, from a practical standpoint ballistic conduction is just as useful in terms of electron mobility.
Certainly. But it doesn’t seem like he has a case to me.

He’s basically trying to get a new protected class created to protect actions that clearly constituted creating a hostile work space based on long established precedent.

Whatever you think of him it seems like a REALLY big hurdle.

And that’s assuming no ‘mandatory binding arbitration’ issues from his work contract.

Even if he wins this could take a very long time (and trips up and down the levels of courts).
And Google's own internal project confirmed that what makes an engineer at Google successful is their ability to communicate and empathize with other people. Traits which this "biological selection" narrative disfavors.

Discrimination of gender, race, and sexual preference is demonstrably real. This suit is a farce and I hope he loses.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/magazine/what-google-lear...
I'm very tired of this "joking" thing. Neo-Nazis (and historical Nazis before them) use jokes to cover their actual, earnest beliefs, and then go "it's just a joke bro" to shield themselves from criticism from those who disagree while gaining earnest support from those who agree. From the Daily Stormer style guide:

"The unindoctrinated should not be able to tell if we are joking or not. There should also be a conscious awareness of mocking stereotypes of hateful racists. I usually think of this as self-deprecating humor - I am a racist making fun of stereotype of racists, because I don't take myself super-seriously.

"This is obviously a ploy and I actually do want to gas kikes. But that's neither here nor there."

I admit that he's almost certainly not playing by the alt-right's playbook - but he should be smart enough to realize that he's playing into the alt-right's playbook, and if he's not that smart, he doesn't have any business getting a job at Google or Microsoft. There are absolutely ways to express the points he's trying to make without letting yourself be turned into an alt-right poster-boy (and they're also more effective at convincing his ostensible target audience, namely senior decision-makers in large tech companies).
maybe gender non confused women are simply NOT INTERESTED in the current realm of the engineering tech world? Of course I have NO expertise in this matter whatsoever as a NON DEGREED NON GENDER CONFLICTED HIGH IQ FEMALE. I wonder how many of these comments here are posted by the Googly butted employees of Googly butt INC. ON COMPANY TIME?!!! Whatever it is you THINK Google is supposed to provide youre NOT providing it now, ARE YOU? SMH glad I left the corpo tech world and LEARNED ABOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD! Goats and ducks and earth itself doesnt give a good diddly squat about "how you identify sexually or otherwise!" Maybe its already "correcting" the warped offspring and you are merely RESPONDING to natural biological evolutionary mandates? By insisting that you are "non binary"? LOL Ma Natures got the last laugh on all of you pretending to be so freaking intelligent and "open minded"! LOL LOL Betcha there arent any white papers allowed on THAT concept! Glad and grateful I escaped it all long before this ridiculous obsession with "identity" became the humanity and technology destroying epidemic it is now. You CLAIM to be leading edge thinkers and creators and developers! WTF are you socially challenged misfits "creating" here? You claim to be creating better intelligence artificially. CREATORS HEAL THYSELVES OR GET OUTTA THE KITCHEN! Humanity and life itself hasn't any time or energy left to waste on this incredible amount of navel inspecting!!! WE ARE ALL BOZOS ON THIS BUS!! DOES ANYONE KNOW HOW TO DRIVE IT YET??? SHUT UP ABOUT HOW YOU "IDENTIFY" AND DO YOU F*N JOBS! [ there was a time when this was a common declaration among the most productive workplaces. AND IT WORKED! ] you have literally destroyed the future for us ALL with your ARGUING for your OWN limitations!
> but Pan American Airlines boss Juan Trippe wanted something special for his passengers, and he approached the aircraft manufacturer with a request for a plane that could carry twice as many passengers as its bread-and-butter long-haul model. In 1966, Trippe signed an order for 25 of the new passenger airliners. The first of these entered service in 1970, and the world would never be the same again.

This is one of those stories that is so often repeated it becomes truth. My issue is that it makes it sound as if Boeing took on creating the 747 because Juan asked for it and business wise there is no way it could have happened like that. But it sounds nice and the type of thing PR wise the press would repeat forever. It was probably more closely that there was a discussion between the heads of the two companies and then Boeing ran the idea by other airlines or did their research and decided it made sense to bet the company on building the 747 (which was another story that has been told time and time again 'the big bet'). I would suspect that Boeing didn't even have a signed commitment from Pan Am to even take on the enormous cost of the program (prior to the first order in 1966) as it wouldn't have made sense for Pan Am to pay anything and/or even guarantee any purchase without being able to get out of the contract w/o any penalties. So this is a bit different than when a ship is built to order for a cruise line because in that case it's a firm order and an order for 1 (or 3 whatever).

Not doubting that a version of this happened just that it sounds so romantic and unrealistic business wise.
The Real Question: Can Philosophy Be Saved? (2017)
If you agree that one's opinion is "anecdotal" then why do you even bother expressing your opinion?!
Unless you think your opinion is more relevant than OP's.
reading through your history there is an obvious bias in who you choose to say this to based on your personal ideology. not to mention your various strictly ideological and political submissions. disappointing as that seems like an abuse of the guidelines and your power.
iTunes on Windows was generally better than most things on Windows. Musicmatch was pretty decent though.
The more obvious reason is women are sick of having to deal with an industry full of people like Damore.

I know I am.
>> I got the impression that he accepted those interviews because they were the only ones that would be conducted fairly.

An exact opposite bias doesn't cancel out into fairness.
Sticky header and sticky footer. Only 60% of my screen is being used for the article content...
The right-wing media is very good at picking up flavor-of-the-month figures and giving them sinecures; this practice is well-funded by wealthy right-wing activists as a reward mechanism.

As long as Damore doesn't publicly stomp on any critical bit of right-wing orthodoxy I'm sure he'll land safely in right-wing media, regardless of the outcome of any legal cases he's involved in.
I agree. He needs to lose on the merits and walk away with nothing.
I don't agree with him. I just think the witch-hunt is intellectually dishonest. I highly suggest reading the memo if you haven't.

To rephrase what I'm talking about: some studies say women are less good at spatial reasoning than men -- maybe you can make an argument that Task X requires spatial reasoning skills. Assuming that argument is true it would stand to reason that statistically more men are capable of doing Task X than women. That's a far cry from saying women lack the ability to do Task X.

To refrain, I think Damore's conclusions are probably wrong. However I think there's a shocking abundance of willful ignorance whenever this topic gets raised.
I know it's a bit further out than 50 years, but I remember enjoying this book/series of essays that discusses what humanity could look like in 1,000,000 C.E.

Year Million: Science at the Far Edge of Knowledge https://www.amazon.com/Year-Million-Science-Edge-Knowledge/d...
> I have access to stimulus like sugar, drugs, alcohol, and gambling,

I think the current diabetes and opioid epidemics show that a huge chunk of society is not "optimizing their lives for greater happiness".
> 10 years from now, he's going to have a hard time finding employment or basic living possible.

I just feel like this is a wishful thinking on the part of left. There are plenty of fields which do not care about his opinions. There are plenty of technological ventures who explicitly look to hire people who are 'uncucked' (term a recruiter used when reaching out to me) run by people HN and left in general absolutely hates (Occulus guy, Pharma bro, Peter Thiel). Plus the job of technology is such that as long as you're writing code, and pay taxes, you can make a decent living.

Not to mention the numerous developers blockchain industry hires, nearly nobody there cares about it, because majority of them are located outside US.

The technological right has money, and not everyone in technology needs to maintain an image like Google, Netflix, Apple, Microsoft etc.
Well, except the defense industry.

The guys who sell you x-ray machines and bomb sniffing dogs and private security services.

And the companies who build military tanks, planes, and ships.

And the companies that build guns, body-armor and night vision goggles.

And the ones that want you to be scared because scared people are easy to manipulate.

Oh, that stuff represents a shit-ton of the federal budget? Weird. I guess it's just a really dangerous world, nothing to be done about it...