Arguments from ethos and pathos are stronger than those from logos. In my experience you'll find that these people also tend to believe highly in one authority over another. More so that the other authorities are actually malicious. Which as a scientist I find this funny but frustrating. Because I can say things like "Hey, I've gone through the data myself and checked some of the basic analysis, but I don't see anything that would cause alarm." And I will get responses about how the data is manipulated (even though I have a decent understanding of how it is gathered and that you know, a lot of this data can be pulled from the local airports....).

What I find interesting is that these people believe in this grand conspiracy. And personally I think that is where you start looking when trying to understand the root cause. There are definitely a lot of factors involved though. (Not in any order)

For one, I think people believe scientists are rich. Which not only couldn't be further from the truth, but that we specifically don't go into it for the money, but the love. I think this comes from the idea of "if you're smart you'll be rich", that is so pervasive. Even just the scientist community is small, and I don't know a single person that knows a person that would purposefully falsify data. Maybe there are some there, but not within a few degrees of freedom.

tldr: People think scientists are interested in money. They are, so why aren't scientists?

The second part I think is the lack of trust for authority. I think this has to do with the fact that people treat all "science" as equal (and I think we call things science that shouldn't be). An example would be that our certainty in the detection of a gravitational wave is much different than our certainty that having a glass of wine a night is good for you (not going to get into p-values here). The error analysis is completely different. You can't even compare them. One has significantly more variables that contribute to error. Hell, most people think math and engineering is science.

tldr: People don't understand basic science or error.

The third point is that people do lie. And there definitely is p hacking going on in some of the softer sciences. Combine that with media that use the word scientist as a rubber stamp for credibility, and these people definitely have evidence for "corrupt" (mistakes and naivety aren't malice) researchers. Plus, we definitely are developing an atmosphere of where we are distrustful of authority, especially in politics. So I think when you add all these factors in, it doesn't actually become unreasonable for them to be suspicious.

tldr: There is actually reason for them to be suspicious.

But how to combat it is an interesting part. From experience I can tell you that going through the data and analysis with these type of people won't get you anywhere. Their eyes glaze over. So you actually have to find a piece that they can understand and agree with. As an example, this guy I drink with has been hard line anti-global warming and hit all three points I mentioned above. Then one day he started to talk to me about how he read about the deforestation for farm animals is changing temperatures. Well from that piece I had my in, and could actually break his barrier and slowly get him to understand. He likes the environment, most people do. But from there I could talk about lack of oxygen production because of deforestation, albedo, carbonation of the oceans and its effect on coral (tie back to oxygen) and other aquatic life, methane production, and other effects. I had his ear because I was talking about what he cared about and eased into it. These topics are easier to understand than CO2 equivalent levels. Because they are right when they say that H2O is a worse greenhouse gas (). Saying things like "100% of scientists agree" or "look at the data" don't mean anything. They've been trained against that. You HAVE to cross the isle. You HAVE to find their interests.

tldr: Gain their respect. Talk about easy to understand things that THEY care about the most and ease into the more technical parts.

It is human to fight. That when we discuss we tend to more argue. That it is my web of beliefs vs another person's. We really like to be right. So you have to stop arguing and just talk. People LOVE to talk about what they are interested in. DO THAT.