skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> Sadly earnings announcements have gotten a lot harder to trade on.

They're absolutely more difficult for reversion strategies, but if you're armed with more granular data of a high enough signal specific to the company you can do targeted trades very successfully.

Accurately forecasting the earnings results ahead of time on a per-equity basis requires more setup and data processing, but it is close to infallible when it comes to profiting on outperforms. Collect ultra-specified "alternative" data on individual companies with optimistic or pessimistic analyst forecasts, analyze it, then take a contrarian position if the data predicts an unexpected earnings result. This fails is in the case of extremely uninformed sentiment in the opposite direction of your own position (likely by unsophisticated investors not interpreting the results "correctly" en masse and opting for hype instead). But you can establish a win rate with a positive cushion.

One of the interesting things I've also done is collecting this data and using it beyond discretionary earnings trades. For example, by selling option premium for equities with very high theta, conversely stable revenue as forecasted by the data and low overall sentiment activity in the market. This is harder to pull off but it allows you to conduct a greater number of trades on a rolling basis through the quarter.
5h each way (giving 2h for whatever), it can probably do ~10km/h[0], so that's likely 50~55km assuming wiki has it right.

Here's hoping nothing happened and the journalist just took a nap at a hostel or something, but the optics are quite bad, it's a lot of coincidences which look pretty nasty.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UC3_Nautilus
Internal studies probably correlates such language with reduced pushback from users.
ew NE rural culture is so unappealing to me. I don't live in a tech bubble, but the Mtn West.. so much better.
Such AI coupled with the inflexible policies of companies like Google and Amazon is already starting to be a problem and will only get worse as it's deployed more broadly. Accounts are closed without recourse for invalid reasons and their owners treated like violators. Short of a law requiring explanations and an appeal process, I don't see this situation getting better ever. Yet another reason not to trust these companies or use their services that require creating accounts and agreeing to their bullshit TOS.
Perhaps them thinking everyone is a jerk is a side effect of their narcissism.
I much prefer the cgdb interface to gdb's tui. I've also used it with various embedded builds of gdb. It works great.
I believe it actually supports IE9+ but the tests are currently failing so they are marked red in the test array. I suspect that they are only failing for the development branch and everything works with IE9+ if you use the latest release.
In my analysis, I do hypothesize that analyst opinions become a self-fulfilling prophecy as you described. However, I would like to believe that analysts do some sort of sophisticated breakdown and analysis of a company's financial statements and market outlook when releasing a justifiable rating.
https://www.findlectures.com/?p=1&class1=Technology&category...
They are non-technical people posting from a war zone.

Or were, some are dead now, and have taken their videos with them.
I think it's pretty similar with artists, musicians, writers, etc -- pretty much any other creative field. The difference is that we get paid a lot more.
Where else should they be stored?
Haha of course - and absolutely right. I loved it.
I more than agree with you.
The only thing, why do you assume that only people "on the left" could be intrested in using these tools?
Sure it's people "on the left" that are creating them and control them now, and yet thought control is DEFINITELY not a thing right parties have ever had problems using lol.
Am I wrong?
YouTube is a really horrible service for content creators. For this type of content, you're practically probably best off with LiveLeak (which, incidentally, seems to be a much better source of breaking news than YouTube these days). Ideally, we'd all switch to LBRY or some sort of IPFS video distribution or something, but that will take time.
Hey Matthew, thanks for running your website! It was very helpful for obtaining the data I needed for my blogpost.
Because what a court does isn't always logical or even reasonable. Especially on IP stuff, especially on IP stuff involving software. Did you pay attention to Oracle v. Google?
That's not the idea I was trying to convey. I think any claim that any language (computer or ordinary or otherwise) captures the way people think independent of the use of that language is at least suspect [and for me probably false, but I could be wrong].

To me, it seems more likely that the flexibility of human cognition allows a person to think in terms of a programming language than any particular programming language expresses something important about the mechanics of human thought. Another way of putting it is that the claim that object oriented programming is ontologically different from other Turing complete languages seems less believable than ontological equivalence -- the Chicken [1] interpreter is written in JavaScript.

http://torso.me/chicken
Someone I follow on Twitter [0] had tweeted about their missing colleague, journalist Kim Wall, and I assumed it was connected to the this case. But I didn't know that none of the current news reports had her name. I assume that's a policy of the Danish police but it seems like that information could aid the search for a missing person.

[0] https://mobile.twitter.com/Charress/status/89613387205167104...
Any good primers on why it's beneficial to use immutables in JS? (especially with server side dev)
I think it is wrong to solve this problem by a state issued UBI. It puts people at a disadvantage. Instead, we should give people the means of production, empower them to rely on themselves.

Instead of UBI, self reliance should be maximized at all levels - personal, family, city and state. For example, a community of people that have enough land at their disposal can be self sufficient. They don't need UBI because they have something better than that - the power to provide for themselves. At a larger scale, a city might organize as to maximize self sufficiency, reducing imports and dependence on external factors. This can be achieved by investing in green energy, local industry, education and so on. New technologies such as 3d printing, agro-bots, self driving cars, drones and solar panels would contribute a long way towards self sufficiency.

Not to mention that in a community where most adults are unemployed, they still have work to do - child care, education, food preparation, cleaning, house building and repair, medical care and many other tasks can be achieved by a community without external help - and generate lots of jobs. When corporations don't give us jobs, we can work for ourselves. That job is always ours. We just need to have access to the means of work.
yeah maybe, it was a little over the top I guess. I was thinking of a brutalist building with seemingly 2 meter thick walls and tiny slits for windows and it seemed to be barely useful for actual living, so that's why I exaggerated with the website analogy

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/%E6%95%B...
Bitcoin ‘Has No Intrinsic Value’ but Neither Does Fiat: Opinion
Correct, but I have never seen such concentration of homeless people anywhere in Spain, where climate varies significantly as well, and economic conditions are historically harsher. But there's a safety net that prevents most people from falling all the way down.
Since my understanding is that covering up a war crime is itself a war crime under Complicity doctrine, could Google executives get charged for this in The Hague?
Does he have a "Captain Nemo" complex? Would allow for all kinds of fantastical plots.
Police are asking if witnesses saw her after 16:00. The submarine set sail 3hrs later around 19:00. It sank the next day at 11:00.

That means she was probably last seen or heard from that afternoon a few hours before the sub launched.
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14988836 and marked it off-topic.
"b 0x12345" will place a line breakpoint at line number 0x12345 of the current source file. The "nonsensical" extra asterisk is used to tell gdb that you want an address breakpoint instead.
> This is really about C++ vs C/Pascal and not OO vs Proc. Also this is 1997 C++...

I can imagine the Smalltalk community rolling its collective eyes and saying "that's not OO..."

My issue with the primary study is that the two programs are not really comparable: a think a C++ parser was a harder problem than a C parser (even given that it is 1997's C++), and this is backed up in the study:

"The C++ parser by further contrast is a recursive descent parser owing to the intractability of parsing C++ using 1 token-lookahead grammars. In other words, they are very different products..."

In mitigation, it says that the C++ parser, as used in the comparison, did not parse the full language, thereby presumably reducing the difference in the complexity of the requirements, but I think the difference in architecture alone is enough to raise doubts over the significance of the results.
Her family has confirmed it is her that is missing. (Swedish source: http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/nqdMn/journalisten-kim-w...)
The problem is "making the data easier to analyze" may make the analysis invalid. Your response is not increasing my faith that you carefully considered what removing the outliers would do to validity of analysis.

> Not sure how narrowing down the top analysts is a flaw here.

Potentially, because how did you decide what "top analysts" were? If it's using the same methods you used to determine they were successful, it just means analysts that come out of your math come out of your math.

If a 50K people flip 10 coins, one of them might flip 10 heads. It doesn't mean that person is better at flipping heads. We could in fact calculate the chances of one of 50K people flipping ten heads. If I decided it meant that some people really were better at flipping heads, I'd probably be wrong. (Although if I calculated the chances and discovered it was like a one in bazillion chance that even one of 50K people would flip ten heads... I'd probably at least consider that they might be better at flipping heads! But I'd probably run the experiment again. :) )

If I pick the top 100 heads-flippers from my 50K coin flippers, and show that they really are better at flipping heads because they flipped more heads in the same dataset that I used to pick them as the top 100 heads-flippers in the first place --- I haven't really shown that at all. By "narrowing down top analysts", depending on how you did it, it's possible you simply found the analysts who got lucky, while ignoring the ones who didn't.

Statistical analysis is _tricky_.
If I remember correctly, the exact same message was delivered to Jordan Peterson a couple of weeks ago or so, before he sat down with the google memo guy. He was in the middle of a bible lecture series, and Google banned his account, and sent the exact same "we've determined that your video does violate our Community Guidelines and have upheld our original decision. We appreciate your understanding." message.

It seems tone deaf especially since in cases such as these there is no understanding to appreciate. Google will not tell you what you did to violate policy, only that they checked to ensure that they found you guilty, and then they snub you further with the HR speak. It's maddening.
We were homeschooling our 2xE sons. Every weekend, we would agree to let me teach our oldest son math a certain way. Come Monday or Tuesday, the ex would reneg on the deal. Rinse and repeat.

It was in the midst of our roughly 200th argument about teaching math to our son that I asked for a divorce. After that, the ex stayed out of my hair and let me teach as I saw fit.

So, my 30 year old son, who likely has dyscalculia, understands math because his parents got divorced.

Don't look at me that way. Math matters. Geez.
Well, st.
The Business of Music in the Digital Era
Ruby influenced my opinion.

What I described above wasn't duck typing plus responds_to - maybe it sounds like a whole lot of sugar on that. It was keeping the taxonomy separate, with behavioural sharing through composition only. I was elaborating on how parameters would work - do you allow taxonomies there or keep it separate still?

It's at odds with Ruby because it's still easier to inherit than it is to compose an object. As much as I love the language for its flexibility, it is still based on the idea of coupling the taxonomy with the object itself.

I'm sure an emulation of what I describe is possible to a degree in Ruby.
seamless-immutable-diff and seamless-immutable-cursor look like neat add ons for this.

https://github.com/micnews/seamless-immutable-diff

https://github.com/MartinSnyder/seamless-immutable-cursor
> Investigators suspect that he didn't, and she sank with the sub.

Investigators also suspect that the sub was scuttled to conceal evidence.
The comment tells you to go look up Mitch Hedberg, that's much more useful than further explanation since explanation is the death of humor.
Youtube used to be a distribution channel but it slowly became an ad delivery tool with content along for the ride. Like 99% of other free (and even some paid) internet sites.

Either way, totally agree that it's a tragic situation.

The only sympathy I have for Google is that trying to separate the good vs. "evil" (as in "Don't be evil.") content is a monumental task that machine learning will probably never be capable of performing. So they're left with the choice of spending an inordinate amount on human review and detailed research or just make wildly over-broad removals.

I'd rather they leave up more rather than less, but they tried this approach and it almost lost them every major advertiser. So continuing down that road would potentially lead to the whole platform losing viability. Maybe some would like that outcome but these historical videos would be just as lost.

Maybe we'll see the pendulum swing back in an effort to reach a more reasonable middle ground.
If you're ultimately making a claim that strategy X beats the market, you need to make sure strategy X is something you can implement without time travel.

For 2, it's not just the effect of the release on prices, but could also be the effect of other things on both releases and prices - imagine great news came out which bumped up the price and also caused analysts to upgrade their ratings.

You should use price data from the day after release.

For top analysts, if you only know who's top after looking at their performance, then it's again not a repeatable strategy. Compare: "you can beat the market just by buying the top 10 stocks!"

It's nice to play with data, I'm just laying out some of the reasons these won't work in the "real world", and pointing towards where a future analysis could be improved.
Return-values in (ba)sh is text output. You can pipe to and from a function in bash, and you can use replacement [eg: host=$(hostname)].

It's different, but it's a powerful paradigm.
After spending some time machine learning golf for daily fantasy wagering, I came to the conclusion that I will never take up the sport. As a social activity it has its positives, but on the sporting side consistency and improvement are hard to come by.

* Professionals miss the cut n times in a row, then win next tournament.

* The ridiculous "tips" videos with all the machinations and methods they put forth to help you with your game - I'd rather play Twister.

* Equipment - costs and technology changes. Drivers are getting closer to looking like a sawed-off bowling ball attached to a shaft.

However, I do enjoy watching the pros play and Spieth's 13th hole in the British Open and follow up was a memorable event.

The PGA has to be commended for making public a great amount of super-detailed data for use in analysis. I wish the bigger sports did this.

The book "Every Shot Counts" by Mark Broadie may help guide you to improve your game, if you are interested in a data analysis approach.

Cheers
>Mobility and a willingness to learn new skills seems to prevail. It's what other generations have done, millions of immigrants (my parents included).

For an individual this might be a solution (even for me! I've moved around lots too)

But for a whole society it's not. Especially when we seem to be hearing similar stories across thousands of towns and cities. Is everyone supposed to move to the bay area, NYC, Boston, Seatle? What is the housing going to look like? Does the rest of the country just empty itself?
I get your point now. Thanks. I was thinking about this in terms of the average employee. If the boss says you shouldn't talk about something and you want to keep your job, most people will begrudgingly do what they think they need to.
I didn't get that impression from reading it. There seemed a "political" (if you want to call it that, but really it was more just what a person thinks is right vs wrong and voicing that to try to convince people of it - ie altruistic) part of it - his motivation had a color of mild/repressed outrage, which showed up, but it was fairly broad and illustrated with lots of points/considerations about the diversity controversy. I don't think a person can downplay the 'politics' part just because its 'toxic' in society, because that is the whole point, impetus, and the only reason readers will pay attention to a thing.

Second, do you have some jumping off point for learning about 'collective altruistic punishment'? After seeing you use that term I want to learn more about it, but Google search doesn't show results that relate to the type of situation we're talking about here (blind punishment of a wellmeaning member who actually doesn't do anything wrong other than put the majority in a position they don't want to be in and possibly confront their own 'wrongthinking' or 'wrongdoing'). I really want to learn more about the concept if you have a link or some?
If you are into watching programming videos, I would recommend Siraj Raval Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWN3xxRkmTPmbKwht9FuE5A

It is quirky, funny and above all very short and crisp and gives you a quick overview of things. Most of his videos are related to AI/ML.
Facebook is like a Casino. They'll try to maneuver to keep you engaged and contain you in their bubble. However, if you're able to leave or cut your usage, they extend no influence whatsoever. (Don't have mobile apps installed, block their trackers, don't use Facebook login, etc) There are lots of ways to communicate outside of Facebook, including other messaging apps that help you form social networks outside of it. My extended family use Line for communication.

Google on the other hand is like the road. You can't avoid the road.
How old are you? It’s really not that hard to imagine the keyboard being replaced by one, or a combination, of technologies in the next decade or two.

Voice has gotten dramatically better in the past few years. Another decade? There are also gesture technologies:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0QNiZfSsPc0

Anyway, if you’ve got 3 or 4 decades of life, you still think we won’t have sufficient advances to replace the keyboard?
Let's hope these beliefs will make it such that people will less likely hire T1.
Nice work!! I wish I was that quick with scipy. I too was very curious to get a better sense of what kind of absolute numbers it might take before the effects are noticeable.

Would you be willing to walk me through the steps? Specifically (I'm sure this is a dumb question) what is gender ratio to population ratio?

And in the male_female_ratio_above_threshold function, why is the female part scaled to 1/1.15? Shouldn't that value be 1.0? You'd have to skip the ratio_above_threshold function and factor in a norm.cdf call directly, but I don't see why it makes sense to compare normal distributions of 1.15 and 1/1.15, it should be comparing a 1.15 times normal to a 1.0 times normal, right?

If I replace the 1/1.15 with 1.0, I get that the 80/20 split happens at an IQ of just over 195 (6.44 std devs). If I'm right, this would mean that for IQ to explain the 80/20 split completely, tech people would have to be in the top ~0.000000006% of the general population. BTW, just for perspective there are 45 such people in the entire world.

> I don't think programmers have to be quite that smart.

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but programmers would have to be that smart, it would still have to be absolute IQ of 165 or above (or maybe >195). If we assume the average programmer has an IQ of 125, the 165 threshold is ~2.6 std devs above the norm, rather than ~4.3 std devs above the norm, right? We'd be talking about the top 0.5% of the programmer population, rather than the top 0.001% of the general population.

Relatively speaking, the threshold isn't as far above the average programmer as it is above the average person, but the 80/20 split depends on the absolute threshold, yes?

> To fully explain 80% men in a profession using only higher variance as the criterion

And we'd better qualify that this is assuming 1.15 is the right number globally, and that 1.15 is valid for subjects other than math, and that using only the higher variance means that percent of women in tech ratio is 100% dependent on IQ, which in turn means that hiring and job performance and ability all correlate 100% with IQ and nothing else, and finally that IQ itself is free of social biases.

Right? Even with a better understanding of what it might take, we're still pretty far into an imaginary land built on a long series of assumptions, some of which we know to be iffy at best. Not to mention that if any other factors are involved (and we know there are) then the IQ threshold is even higher.
In these articles there are a lot of statements where Fb denies doing certain things specifically, such as storing audio recordings when the app is used to tag TV shows.

I’m generally curious about if companies usually lie about practices like this, especially since company policy can change internally at any time without oversight. What happens if they are caught lying? Doesn’t seem to be breaking the law in any way.

It’s scary to think that while Facebook reassures everyone they aren’t listening to conversations or aren’t storing audio in a way that’s connected to the harvested user, they really have no obligation to wihhold that promise and even if they don’t they don’t even have to tell us!
Very cool! Unfortunately, I couldn't get this working in Windows. Appears that the curses library is not compatible. Tried Unicurses with the same effect. Running Python 3.62.

Ran it in Ubuntu with no problem. Looking forward to writing some .dot programs. Well done!
Isn't Facebook run by Mormons now anyways?

https://www.google.com/amp/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_586848...
> Does that kind of patronizing tone sound polite to the ears of a PR drone?

I don't know, but you're right it is very common, and infuriating.

"Your call is important to us. Please hold."
The worst part of the information age is arbitration by unreasonable and impenetrable algorithms rather than humans with the capacity to make a judgement call when the rules clearly don't account for the situation at hand.

A transparent appeals process staffed by humans who can at least deliver a rationale, including what rule you broke, should be required by law. There's irreparable reputational damage associated with an algorithm libelously labeling something "extremist content" that isn't.
From a logical point of view …
Perhaps its time for google and youtube to be regulated.