skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Your logic seems to make sense but how would you explain the purported chimney effect that has been observed on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C4%B1narg%C3%B6z%C3%BC_Cave#... which is a cave with openings at low and high elevations and the difference in temperature is claimed to create "constant wind of up to 166 km/h"?
Now, think that the data is immutable, doesn't necessarily have to be in a hard disk. Could be in tape.

Backup tapes have significant capacity and are cheaper than hard drives.
Are these effects active also in "steady state use"?
> Every car I've owned has been cheaper than the previous and honestly these days I'm mostly public transit. But at the same time, I've become many times richer between each car purchase.

Not only cars/transportation. Housing. It's amazing how housing situation in the US is pretty much theft of the young and the poor.

I paid more for housing ( rent/utilities/etc ) as a poor college grad than I do now many years later. Property taxes/insurance/etc ( tax deductible unlike rent ) is much lower than rent.

Not only that, when you are wealthier/more stable, you can afford to plan ( food, groceries, etc ) and wait for deals that you just couldn't when you were poorer/younger.

Even bank accounts. When you were young/poor, the bank charged you "maintenance fee/account fee" because you didn't have enough money in the bank. Now the bank has a "rep" specifically assigned to me to offer me "plane ticket upgrades", special offers, higher interest accounts, "free trades" on IRAs, etc.

I can only imagine what REAL wealthy people ( tens/hundreds of millions or even billionaires ) have. I know a bank I worked for had an entire floor ( "wealth management division" ) dedicated to help high net worth individuals. Wonder what perks those people got.
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I love the idea, the simple design, and the humble tone of the byline ("no one knows for sure, but there are indicators that can help us guess. We can chart these indicators to give us the illusion of foresight.").

However, I have two suggestions. First, the numeric rankings (such as "5.5 / 10") need context: why not say something like "10 is the highest value reached in the historical record"?

Second, the explanations you give for chosing these indicators need a bit of work, as evidenced by some of the comments and questions on this thread. Most lay readers won't understand why the ratio of total stock market capitalization to annual GDP is important.
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> That's really not very much in the grand picture of things.

And how does that claim hold up when you compare current level cryptocurrency adoption to the scale of money worldwide?

How does energy usage scale with the number of users in general? Linearly?
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I liked http://startuperlife.xyz/26
I'm impressed too, if only it wouldn't have those nasty mce and segfault bugs, and AMD could actually explain what's going on after all this time testing it.
Normalizing household debt against the GDP makes the assumption that we are comparing the debt with the ability to pay for it.

But according to graphs like this, even though the GDP has been rising, median households have not been getting a corresponding increase in income: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United...

So the income we are adjusting against is not necessarily going to the people that are in debt!
I think you could estimate much more accurately with the prices of deeply out-of-the-money put options. Those are effectively a betting market on whether stocks will crash or not. We should expect option prices to take into account every major factor (not just these four), because if they didn't, people would get rich by trading on the "missing" info until prices corrected themselves.
Somalia's government situation is a mess because the country has no economically productive activity.

Not the other way around.
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Shiller Price/Earnings[1], probably. It looks at the previous 10 years of earnings to do a P/E to try to even out the earnings and get a better picture. But I'd imagine even just normal P/E ratio would be better...

[1] http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
If you're looking for The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns[1], here it is: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre...

This is a long read, but it's worth it. The metric can be calculated in FRED[2], and as a predictor of future returns, it outperforms all of the most common stock market valuation metrics, including cyclically-adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio[3]. (Basically, the average investor portfolio allocation to equities versus bonds and cash is inversely correlated with future returns over the long-term. This works better than pure valuation models because it accounts for supply and demand dynamics.)

[1]: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gre...

[2]: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qis

[3]: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
When I read this: "This shortcoming is highlighted by recent studies showing that PoW is highly inefficient with respect to operating cost and ecological footprint." The moment we try and do away with this inefficiency we are going against the entire solution of what bitcoin was going for: how to use all of the inefficient computer parts laying around the globe for something useful?

It makes me think people just don't get it. High inefficiency is the _ENTIRE_ point! It gives rarity to the coin. That 10 minute block time is the same as compressing millions of years of geology into 600 seconds. It is fundamentally sound mathematics, and ultimately, that is why it holds its value. It is not meaningless mathematics, people who say that don't understand fully as to what they are talking about, imho.
Of course. If you disable it in settings, you should see a noticeable boost in batter life (~1–1.5 hours in my testing).
Akito Node with a MSI GTX 1070. Everything worked out of the box after installing Nvidia drivers.
I just made a 40 minute film of my dog, is it a feature film?
By not advertised I mean it simply isn't in the job posting. You apply to google and they talk to you during be process about the level.

https://careers.google.com/jobs#!t=jo&jid=/google/software-e...

https://careers.google.com/how-we-hire/?&src=Online/House%20...
Just take out 'Higher' and i agree with you.
I think that sort of depends on your perspective. Some critics of UBI would say it's basically a scheme to keep a capitalist system and a ruling class in place that we'd be better off doing away with.
>Is it really that surprising?

Yes.

>All the window composition with frame-buffer effects takes a toll.

Which would be relevant if they were moving windows around, instead of just watching a movie in full screen mode vs typical window mode. So not much (if any) composition and no frame-buffer effects in place. At worst, the tiny rect with the clock on the menubar was changing.
> So CS is definitely very relevant for software engineering - but you need a broad understanding instead of a deep one.

Absolutely. A general understanding of CS is necessary to be a competent software engineer. Just like a general understanding of physics is necessary to be a civil/mechanical engineer.

If there is a VENN diagram, there is definitely an overlap of "theory" and "engineering". But theory != engineering.
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I don't see this "[trying] to set himself apart" bit. Maybe I'm reading too literal? Maybe others are projecting? I don't know. I read OP as continuing the article's discussion. Or just a minor "meh, this is how it is with me."

But "setting himself apart"? Or 'writing ironically'? I don't see it.
market overvaluation section could do to include the yield spread on bonds as this is sometimes quoted as a volatility risk indicator.
It is based on the content of your posts.
Hardware accelerated decoding is enabled even in windowed players. On Macs, especially when using QuickTime, the only difference between fullscreen and “windowed” windows is the size of the surface and the hidden Dock and menu windows.
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There used to be a separatist movement (aka terrorists / freedom fighters) in Spain and France called the Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (or ETA for short). Until surrendering their weapons in April this year, they've been involved in a number of attacks since 1968 that most people would consider acts of terrorism.

Their goal was to establish an independent Basque nation by forcing the French and Spanish governments to give up their respective territories.

Now, for a number of reasons, they haven't been particularly successful. Their attacks mostly involved bombings, robberies, kidnapping or plain old executions. They've used some military grade weapons like mortars but never had much resembling a full army, let alone tanks.

If things had been different and the US would have had an interest in having the CIA fund, train and equip the ETA to the point where the ETA would have been able to wage an actual war of secession against Spain and/or France, wouldn't you agree that this situation would have been drastically different from "merely" killing less than 1000 people over decades of activity?

Yet apparently by your standards because ETA still existed and killed people without the hypothetical CIA support the situation would have been no different in the grand scheme of things and the US's involvement would have been completely irrelevant.

There are plenty of terrorists or separatists or nationalists or rebels or freedom fighters in all kinds of countries and plenty of them have killed people. Yes, people kill people without covert (or overt) military support from the US and other powers but pretending that makes the level of support they receive irrelevant is absurd.

Without US involvement, the Syrian civil war would look quite different, just like the Ukrainian civil war would look very different without Russian involvement.
I feel like I'm missing the punchline. How big is the generated font?
3 months seems long. We ported our Copyfish extension to Firefox recently, and the approval process took only ~10 days. I think first feedback took about a week. The reviewer replied with constructive feedback and we had to change a few small things. Then it took another 1-2 days for the final approval. So yes, there is a real human being behind it. Or some super-AI ;)
Mmmm... good luck
The movie Wargames guessed wrong. As a result, the public understanding is backwards from the real NORAD numbers.
The reason why you are being downvoted is for focusing on the one thing that nobody could give a crap about in the article. We are talking about battery life, not the definition of what a "feature film" is or isn't.
I think for any crypto to have long term (100+ year) life, it must be powered with free, or close to free energy. So solar, wind, etc.

I don't see any way around this limitation. Eventually the difficulties will be so high, and finding blocks gets harder and harder, keeping it on a traditional power source would not be prudent.
Normally yes -- a bit similar to e.g. when a game is displaying a seemingly 'static' image (when you don't move your character), then the GPU is still rendering at X frame/second.
Clock speed increases are a likely benefit we'll see when Zen 2 is released on Global Foundries 7nm+ process, right now that's the biggest reason Zen seems to fail against Kaby Lake in single-threaded performance minus some minor IPC differences. A Ryzen 7 1800X tops out at 4GHz boost (it can usually run stable at 4GHz overclocked with a vCore bump, but you're playing the silicon lottery) meanwhile a Core i7-7700K has a base frequency of 4.2GHz - a 5% difference, ignoring the 7700K's 4.5GHz boost frequency.

On a similar note, it looks like fab processes are likely hurting AMD with their GPU's. From what I can gather they opted to produce Vega at GloFo's fab on their 14nm proccess, which might explain why they are shipping the air-cooled Vega 64 with a 1.24GHz base clock at a pretty ludicrous 295W TDP.
It's public (technically it has to be in order to be strictly legal for use). But for the most part it is unintuitive, unclean (needs to be heavily normalized) and not easily accessible. There are a variety of vendors that source it, clean it and analyze it to make it salable to firms. Quantitative firms also have teams devoted to doing all of that internally.
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it's funny we now expect both parents to work but then childcare isn't on the list of basic needs. by definition a minimum wage job can't afford to pay for child care without some kind of help.
The problem with 4-5 hours days is that you will not be efficient 100% of the time. You need those extra hours (for breaks, communication, coordination, mentoring, etc) to be able to code 4 hours in a day.
This is because one (the X1) is tapered - you "experience" the thin side (keyboard) while the thick part is on the back.

The 450/60/70 is just a flat slab so it maintains its thickness along its whole surface (although the 460 and 70 cheat and they become thinner about 1 inch before the end, so they look a bit thinner when looked at from the front).

I have a 450 and don't mind it at all.
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Keras uses Theano or Tensorflow as a backend, and has the same restrictions. The graph must be defined, and then computed.
Good point, I think I will go into a bit more detail as to how the risk factor is calculated.

Yeah seems like I might need to go into a bit more depth explaining the rationale behind each indicator. I'm open to including different indicators too.
> how to use all of the inefficient computer parts laying around the globe for something useful?

How do you reconcile this statement with the fact that mining is done by a few thousand entities in the whole world, using custom-built hardware?
There is enough spare energy! An infinite supply a few millions of miles away.
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Only more often it is the police who pretend to plan a crime and recruit suspects to participate in that fiction. If the suspects show willingness to participate they get arrested.

[1]http://www.npr.org/2014/07/18/332636882/newburgh-sting-terro...

[2]http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/was-fbi-grooming-po...
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I think it would pretty wise to just assume they are recording and tracking everything you do online and with your phone.
I just buy only older refurb Apple gear.
Heh. Here you get tax breaks and/or subsidized, get to drive in the taxi/bus lanes, plus you get to go through the tolls at a reduced cost (or maybe free). It is a really convenient thing, honestly.

As far as I know, they have planned phase-outs to some of this and I'd expect more of the same. After all, electric car ownership is already pretty high (I'm in Norway) and eventually they'll need the tax revenue. For now, though, I'm fully supportive of these sorts of incentives if for nothing else than smog reduction.
Ancient Unix Secret[1].

Maybe it is related to "unredirect fullscreen" optimizations many Linux desktops employ. The people saying they don't get similar improvements in Windows by going fullscreen on the same hardware should run the test again with all the Windows 10 graphical improvements disabled.

[1]http://losca.blogspot.com/2012/11/game-performance-improveme...
The goal isn't even to watch everyone, even if you devoted 100% of all federal spending to watching everyone you wouldn't be able to do it. Not enough resources or time. The goal is to chill conversation and thought that is too critical of institutions. Mission accomplished.
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I don't know whether you're writing normatively about positions you actually hold or descriptively about the positions of others, which makes it very difficult to engage what you're saying directly; everything has to be written through a layer of indirection.

So let me just come out and ask: on the matter of race and intellect, what is it you believe? Can you be specific about those beliefs in the context of American "white", black, and Asian people?
None of that sounds particularly implausible, to be honest. People build proof-of-concepts for their own amusement. If there's no unique vulnerability to be patched, there's no value to releasing it. People share things with their friends, who are sometimes unscrupulous. And if I found out that software I wrote was being used maliciously, I'm not so sure that my first email would be to the FBI either - especially after this.

The least plausible part of this chain of events is that Kronos, from what I can see, is not a very interesting piece of software - more a tedious exercise in plumbing than an interesting proof-of-concept.
I think that's true - which suggests that our trend should be towards more nationalisation. (Put it another way: with communication cheaper and better, and better modelling tools, central planning becomes less of a disadvantage).
Share your stuff. Share everything. What do you think? Would you use it?
SB in economics here and current business school student (I know, I know: burn the future MBA at the stake!).

Indeed, it is a valid criticism. The market cap/GDP measure is mismatched, since market cap theoretically reflects investors' expectation of future cash flows globally while GDP is a measure for only one country. Also, GDP is problematic for a bunch of reasons, so even if all companies were only operating in the United States, GDP would still only be a crude measure of economic output.
I know some older people in the tech sector who can't find jobs for the same reason. It's not just athletes and sex workers. :)
Ryzen performance is awesome, but the design of that page, omg, it is almost unusable based on how bad the information is presented on Linux/Firefox.
Have you run anything on multiple-GPUs or scaled to multiple nodes? My biggest hesitation for using pytorch is what appears to be the limited distributed compute support. Being able to easily scale a dynamic graph to arbritrarily large size across a cluster would make pytorch an easy sell for me.
> first position on Joe's house which is worth $675k

Only in a healthy housing market. In an economic downturn where a lot of people are defaulting, the bank will not be able to sell the house for anywhere near that price.
magnatiles (amazon have seen at target) one of our kids favorites, great for 6 year old but they will play with them for years.
https://www.amazon.com/Magna-Tiles-Clear-Colors-100-Piece/dp...

Kapla Blocks (building)
https://www.amazon.com/CitiBlocs-200-Piece-Natural-Colored-B...

Dominos for Toppling (lots of tutorials online to do amazing runs)
https://bulkdominoes.com/collections/all

Wooden Blocks
https://www.amazon.com/ECR4Kids-Hardwood-Building-Storage-48...

If you don't have a hard smooth floor pick up a sheet of plexiglass for dominos and kapala blocks.

Legos, get a variety of sets, encourage mixing and building your own creations.

Board Games

---------------------

Catan Junior
Settlers of Catan

Ticket to Ride

Blockus

Scrabble (deluxe with plastic grid)

Chess

Stratego (Original General is 1)

Uno Card Game.

----------------------------

Snap Circuits (Electricity Projects)

----------------------------

Do science night where parents use a white board to teach how things work, let them ask questions/explain things they know.

----------------------------

Lego Mindstorms is good too, but they would need to be on a screen some for this.
"We can chart this to give us an illusion of foresight"

Got to respect the Author's humility in foretelling the future
If all loans were always repaid, we'd have no risk premiums, and the world would be incredibly different than it really is: Almost every worthwhile investment that has moved the world forward involved significant chances of loans not getting repaid.

What is broken with student loans is that the current scheme messes with almost every sensible market incentive out there: Colleges get more expensive for little to no reason, people can get into big loans for degrees that will never pay off, and the companies lending the money are, in practice, guaranteed repayment by the treasury, so ultimately the whole scheme leads to far higher prices than, say, college in Europe, but only provides better outcomes for some school+major combinations.

Let's not forget, the system leads to degrees that have low expected values to end up being unaffordable, while prices would go down if the system wasn't built with the silly guarantees that it has. Putting the blame on the borrower alone and ignoring the insane system design is just shortsighted.

If someone went to try to launch pets.com today, we'd not blame the founders alone for the VC's loss: They carry responsibility too for betting on a horse that had no chance of even finishing the race. A VC takes risks, but also expects losses. Anyone making loans should consider chances of delayed payments and of losing all the money completely.

Let's go back to your idea of protocols. Imagine we are making a requests over a network and expecting the network to not be lossy, and to never have long network partitions, or for other servers to go down. We can be angry at the network or the server on the other side, but in practice, what we do is understand that failures exist. Expecting everyone to pay you back all the time is like expecting a distributed database to be reliable all the time. I can scream at the network or the database vendor, but ultimately the joke is on me for expecting impossible things.
Absolutely correct. Even if you just change one line of code it will take weeks to get approved. Totally unacceptable. Chrome approval process is measured in minutes.

Due to this and ff terrible market share there is little reason to develop for ff.

Moz has killed ff with their own incompetence.
Yep. For a series of shorts (less than 40 mins) starring just dogs look at The Dogville Comedies -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogville_Comedies
Ugh, what a bad-faith argument. The whole reason government puts subsidies on things is to encourage those things. The article starts with the assumption that market distortion is always has a bad outcome, but it's going to have to back that up. It also assumes (at the end) that our representatives in Congress can't possibly really be representing us.

The rebates and tax cuts are working as intended. For example, by paying $7,500 for a certain class of electric vehicle, we tip the balance for people considering buying a somewhat less expensive internal combustion car. Just by tipping the scales, we shift a significant fraction of the demand from IC to electric, which makes a huge difference in the market, and therefore capital investment in manufacturing. Just doing this for a few years gets us decades ahead of where we would be in terms of electric vehicle technology.

Corruption is always possible but it's not a given. For an old rebuttal, Musk's "The House Always Wins" essay still applies. https://www.tesla.com/blog/house-always-wins

P.S. The tax credit already get phased out above 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer, so it's not going to apply to all 500,000 pre-orders (even assuming they all become sales). https://energy.gov/eere/electricvehicles/electric-vehicles-t...
A bit sales-y and unanalytical style. Good core idea though.
It always has been. D and R are guilty of doing this as much and as often as the other. When one side has a majority, it's always the other which attempts to pull the "independent from..." argument.
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