skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
It is calculated from the (theoretical) implied volatility of listed S&P options, so it is indeed forward looking (not past variance).

But it is riddled with microstructural issues and to my knowledge doesn't really have any track record of predicting crashes. It will react to market events contemporaneously though, so it is a decent measure of expected future volatility.

Besides household debt, the rest of these indicators don't make much sense either. Much better would be measures of the yield curve, inflation, and corporate credit quality.
First they have to make new rolling stock, as the new system only works on post-2000s trains.

Second, MTA estimate about 16 miles of track could be upgraded per year. They have 665 miles of revenue track (850 including non-revenue), so it would take 41.56 years just to convert the revenue track. The Regional Plan Association wants MTA to convert 21 miles of track per year, leading to 31.66 years to cover all the revenue track.

Add the time to create new rolling stock, any additional time for any additional track in the next 30+ years, and extra time in case they go over the original estimation. Easily between 35 and 50 years just to convert the revenue-generating track.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signaling_of_the_New_York_City...
Reminds me of Limbo :)
> It seems clear to me that the manifesto author "raises into question the fundamental capability of every woman he works with".

Could you quote the part of the manifesto that says so / gave this impression.

I totally understand the offensiveness and stupidity of such a belief -I just fail to see how the author argues for it given that he explicitly states the opposite

> Many of these differences are small and there’s significant overlap between men and women, so you can’t say anything about an individual given these population level distributions.

As far as I can see the author is arguing average aptitudes in populations and consequent percentual representation of men and women not being 50/50. Not aptititudes of individuals. As the author also argues for actions that in their eyes increases the attractiveness of tech jobs to women they seem to think of the women that work with them as perfectly capable.

I appreciate any help in understanding this point of view. It just feels like we read different manifestos
A 3D/VR Bitcoin Blockchain Browser
Also of note is that the lua version of Torch seems to be in maintenance mode now.

https://twitter.com/soumithchintala/status/89417353800895692...
I know it's not a GUI (you'd class it as a TUI, I guess), but Tig is fantastic. I use it in combination with the command line, mainly for quickly viewing recent commits, diffs and staging hunks.

https://github.com/jonas/tig
>Show HN: Universal Basic Income in Elixir

fucking lost
I apologize for accusing you of downvotes. I'll check it out.
Bonds are a healthy part of a diversified portfolio. There of course is risk to bonds. The bond market is less volatile than the stock market, which is what draws most investors to them. In poor market years bonds can yield more than equity.

Bonds have a higher liquidation preference than equity, so if a company is going under you have a better chance of recouping some money. Bonds also pay their coupons on an annual or semi-annual basis and become income. Bonds can also be traded on the secondary market just like stock.

Just like equity there's a ton of downsides to bonds as well, like interest rate risk, prepayment risk, credit/default risk.

Bonds are rated by credit agencies, equity is not. In theory (though we've seen credit agencies fail time and time again), bond risk is better-understood and communicated than stock risk. Highly-rated corporate and government bonds are a good, stable place to store capital to protect against market volatility and inflation depreciation.

For instance, when the global market took a hit last year, a ton of demand for US Treasury bonds was created. Investors bought US bonds at a loss (both on primary and secondary markets) because the loss was a well-understood, small amount (something like 1-2% over 10 years), rather than the totally unknown loss that the stock market would suffer.

Junk bonds like this one are higher risk in exchange for higher yield. Junk bonds usually are issued either by companies on the way down (low confidence) or companies on the way up (no credit). If you're long on Tesla and believe they're in the "on the way up", adding these bonds to the portfolio could be a decent source of low volatility income.

This isn't advice. Just explaining why people buy bonds!
I use gitkraken, it's multiplatform, freemium and has a pretty nice interface.
This is pretty cool!

On the other hand I'm reminded of the horrors of LabVIEW.
There were no microcode updates that fixed this issue so far.
Having left his job more than 15 years ago, is there any chance that he's simply not aware of the actual methods they're using?

I know in other fields the ability to do concept searching (via LSI and other techniques), rather than simple text based searching, has been in use for many years. His example/problem of a search for "bomb" bringing up noise (such as an email talking about a QB throwing a 'bomb' pass) should have long ago been solved.
You can compute anything, given enough time of course.

The CPU running on your device boils down to a netlist describing a bunch of gates and their interconnections. This is somewhat of an oversimplification, of course.
Atom recently added git support: http://blog.atom.io/2017/05/16/git-and-github-integration-co.... It works well for me and I use it as more a supplement to the CLI rather than a replacement, so it might work for you.
The fan is rad, clearly the most attention to detail put into it.
Show HN: Stylepill – You don’t have to pay anymore for templates or themes
I have to finish that book. Very nice first half.
I think he is talking about Modern Monetary Theory, where one of the conclusions they arrive, after studying how modern economies work, is that private sector debt grow when there is not enough government deficit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sectoral_balances

Another of the conclusions is that the national debt, for countries with a floating sovereign currency, is just a number without real meaning.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/08/taxation-government-...
Yeah, on a second visit, everything seems OK.

Didn't notice the loading indicator myself.
So it seems to me the sequence is:

a) You have a decent city with reasonable rents
b) AirBNB
c) Same city with outrageous rents
-- Choose either --
d1) Now we have to change the building codes and
wait for the effect of the invisible hand to complete
the massive change to the city so that there is a huge
new housing stock at the same rents as before

-- or Choose --
d2) Now we have to ban AirBNB and have the city return
to its original reasonable state.

Forget for the moment the NYMBYist case for (d2). What about the tourist case? Is a tourist just as interested in the new form of the city with four additional new stories on every residential acre plus the increased grocery stores? What about the rest of the infrastructure that has to be built to support all this density? Is the open-minded local commuter going to want to continue to live in the (d1) environment as it grows more and more dense and commutes (on foot and by subway) grow worse and worse? Is this really "flourishing" or just the shortest path to a Blade Runner set with actual people?
Someone built a similar thing a couple of years ago to get random things from Amazon: http://randomshopper.tumblr.com/post/35454415921/randomized-...
Perhaps they were previously leaked through Snowden or others and he's only included them in his slides? Then he's not disclosing anything. He hasn't worked at NSA for a loooong time.
I'm in the process of auditing new low-power Po* algos for a crypto system I'm researching. This paper needs a way better abstract. The math is incomprehensible without knowing what it's end goal is. The paper uses acronyms (ex "Good ID") before explaining what they are. Overall a poorly written paper. The work maybe revolutionary, but what good is that if it's so difficult to understand. People forget that the purpose of a paper is to communicate your idea to other people. If it doesn't do that effectively then no matter how awesome the work is, you've failed.
Quarternions aren't weird. With a 2D angle we use 2 numbers (sin and cos) to calculate vector rotations. It turns out that in 3D we use 4 numbers.
I thought " The State of the Post Neural Network Attack" was both pretty meta and superbly on point.

But yes, reading through the titles was eerily realistic.
My bet is that the couple is hoping that rich homeowners will pay a pretty penny to buy the land back from them
I don't know if I qualify as an "elite", given that I'm "merely" in the 86th percentile of American households by income, but I take issue that the article equates things like fair-trade food, going on a nice vacation, seeing a show and going to a nice gym as status symbols.

I buy free-range/organic whatever because in some cases it's genuinely healthier/tastier (ex: grass-fed beef, uncured bacon, hormone-free chicken, legit Extra Virgin Olive Oil, etc), and the benefit to the animals/farmers is a bonus. I see shows because I enjoy them, I take nice vacations every once in a while because I enjoy them. I buy nice coffee because I use a french press and can taste the difference over Folgers. I go to a nice gym because I enjoy the jacob's ladder machine, the general cleanliness and high availability of equipment.

None of that is to show off to anyone. Sure I might bring it up in conversation if I think it's interesting and relevant, but it's hardly the "look at me and how awesome I think I am!" vibe that driving a Hummer, living in a Mansion or wearing $50 designer T-shirts is.
Highly related: https://x.company/makani/ founded by Don Montague, one of the Kiteboarding pioneers - likely the first one to create software to design kites and windsurf sails.
Using it on Linux and is the best Git UI(not like we are spoiled by the amount of options on Ubuntu ...)
Google Street View:
https://www.google.com/maps/@37.7887836,-122.4607777,3a,75y,...

Note: it seems just Street View displays just a section of the street.
SpaceX spending almost a decade developing, testing, and then deploying rockets that can land and then be reused is a good example.
Show HN: Automate MySQL and PostgreSQL migrations when deploying code
Only if you don't care about beauty. And you should care, looking at something beautiful every day makes you happier.
Dumb mistake, was supposed to be 1440p.
I think so. Also engineers in Google India used to start at level 2
Firefox 55.0: find out what is new
>Thanks for reading, I hope to improve the analysis over time.

Good, but I don't see the analysis at all.

I mean you are betting (without any actual money which is good) on the actual auction price of something in the future.

The auction price of a work of art - by definition - is not in any way like the actual market value of anything (it will be MUCH lower or MUCH higher or JUST ABOUT right) depending on a zillion factors that have nothing to do with the actual value of the piece.

And you have so few data points that a statistical approach is mostly meaningless, let alone one based (in the case of a study) based on the differences between it and the final painting.

You could use a few sessions of flippism and get a similar value.

Or count the number of unique RGB colours in the (photos of) the paintings and give each one a value between 1,217 and 23,146 US$ depending on brightness , later multiplied by the square root of the year it was painted and arrive to a same "mathematical" estimation.
That was my biggest lesson of the L or the 4/5/6. If you wait, the next train will be much, MUCH less crowded.

Another trick is that if I'm at Union Square trying to get into Brooklyn on the L and the station is packed, it ends up being faster and more comfortable to take the L backwards to 8th ave, and then grab a seat on the Brooklyn bound L at the 8th ave terminus.
I haven't studied this much, but to speculate, it sounds like each gate is a boolean expression (AND, OR, XOR, NOT). So this lets you compute boolean functions on bits. I don't see a way to compute a loop, though, other than perhaps to unroll it and send lots of instructions.

Also, 50ms per bit operation, though apparently an improvement, sounds extremely inefficient compared to normal programming.
475 stations, 840 miles of track, the signals have to be 'hot patched' as the system still needs to keep running 24/7/365.

50 years might be an over estimate, but projects like these tend to slip their deadlines.

[Edit] peterwwillis's answer is much more thorough than mine https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14948951
I didn't see the image. I saw a flattened out pattern, like a paper craft template from which to make a 3d model. It was only reading the comments several hours later that I realised what I should have been looking for.
The Luddites have been saying that for years, though the exact nature of the displacement from which there is no place to go is different.
Choose Your Paradox – the downside of the Axiom of Choice
These bugs aren't consistent, and likely affect only part of Ryzen CPUs of the same model, not all of them. That's why the results are so over the place for different people. It also can be affected by power setup, which adds a lot of variables and makes it harder to reproduce.

By the way, for users or Gentoo or other distros which actually build packages when installing them, these segfaults are a very major roadblock for any kind of use case.
This is great. I think that the illusion of time speeding up as we get older is due to getting into a routine where we do the same thing every day, and the brain begins compressing memories as our everyday experiences become less novel. Using a "randomizer lite" program to shake things up might be a good start to breaking the routine.
Mazda and Toyota sell vehicles that I could actually afford to buy. I'm not sure Tesla will be able to get to that price point.
I recall seeing such a street right in the heart of SF (I don't think it was that exact street, though) on Zillow when I was scoping out the feasibility of actually living in the Bay Area. No building rights (because it's a street), yet it was somehow for sale independent of the other properties on that street.

I chuckled at the thought of buying that street and charging for access rights (maybe even setting up a little guard shack and a gate), but then moved on to more productive ventures. Fun to know that I wasn't the only one thinking along those lines.
I think the main question is how to get access to capitalize on the downside risks of A).

- Find out who has exposure to student loans portfolios and what percent is non performing?

- Find out what other assets A) is holding that will have liquidation pressure if *-swan occurs?

- What extent is B) tied to A)?

- What pressures B) would face long term due to non performance of student loans that would influence A) and the larger market of assets under the jurisdiction of B)?

- How much could be made from theoretically capitalizing on the downside risks of A) vs other assets in the mean time?
Charging market rent for parking will result in more efficient use of the space.
If they sell the spaces to people outside the block, they're adding value.
This is a great idea - turning used cell phones into super-cheap IP cameras. I'd probably want to get cheap wide-angle lens adapters ($1 each), and use phone case ($1) to mount it on the wall/ceiling. Another idea is to use selfie-cam/front facing camera, so that the video is visible all the time, as it might be a deterrent to burglar/etc.

For CCTV video recording, I use iVideon (freemium), which is cross-platform, and has free unlimited local recording, free streaming, and free limited event-based 24 hour cloud recording. Another favorite is ZoneMinder, an open-source favorite.
This is definitely wrong. Easiness of tech is determined by their complexity not age.
Never Too Old to Code
It would, just the hardware/admin/maintenance costs would dominate instead.
Wow this is amazing!
1) Much of the system is very old, some of it dating back to the 30s. Replacing those parts is very complicated, it's not a 1:1 process. The improvement comes because new signals work under different assumptions. The current signals are basically automated versions of people standing with flags. Partially interfacing the old with the new is very complicated.

2) Downtime basically shuts down the city. Even nights and weekends interruption in service causes major disruptions. The surface streets are at maximum capacity, there is no way to get that many people in and out of downtown and midtown without the subway.
Well, he said a lot of graphics cards. I plugged in 20 at 1kwh each. Trying to charitably interpret OP's tone of outrage, which seemed misplaced to me.
Unfortunately she is listed as a past owner.
$600,000/yr isn't that outlandish. You just need 30+ reports or do really good IC work
If someone owns something and rents it out, could you explain how that not provide value?
Show HN: Roger Video Walkie Talkie for Mac
Hi HN,

I'm so excited to introduce to you Roger. It's a "push-to-video talk" Mac app for crazy fast team communication.

https://www.producthunt.com/posts/roger-3

My teammates and I made Roger because we found communicating w/ Slack and Skype to be a pain in the butt.

Either we had to type out what we wanted to say, or we had to go through the tedium of scheduling a call, ringing, waiting for an answer, hanging up, and so on. It was just too much friction.

Roger cuts out all the cruft of Slack/Skype and lets you communicate as quickly and freely as possible. You just hold down on your contact’s bubble and start talking, right away. If they want to respond, they hold down, too. That’s it!

It’s as close to sitting next to someone as you can get, without sitting next to them!

If you do any remote work, we think you'll really like this...please let us know what you think!
-Alex
... this is very basic and fundamental property law. They now own title to the common areas. No mayor is going to be able to overturn property laws which have developed over hundreds / thousands of years.
I see Ford offering up a Tesla drivetrain compatible body. The big boys just want to keep the lines pumping at current margins.
Modern monetary theory.
Not really.. I ride my bike through there sometimes.. It's off of the steepest part of Arguello, but the little loop itself is very mild.
I haven't been in the auto industry for a number of years, but the following is my educated impression. On most aspects (drivetrain, body, safety, etc), tech will be comparable.

Where Tesla tech wins is in battery technology (good chance Toyota and Mazda will start buying Tesla battery packs instead of developing their own), and Autopilot.

Other manufacturers are working on autonomous vehicles, and they will probably be pretty good, but Tesla has a first-mover advantage in terms of training data and real-world usage (which will be very valuable), and they're also much more culturally aggressive about deploying new software technology than the major manufacturers.

Yes, they can catch up in those regards, but likely not for the next ~5 years or so which is going to be the crucial time period in terms of capturing the market.
Here is the case for looking at Market Cap / GDP: Warren Buffet looks at the total market cap vs GDP because it is free from the influence of corporate accounting, unlike the more traditional P/E ratio.

The case against: economic activity in the US has been concentrating in larger companies (less small companies being started for example) and there is more "financialization" in general. So you would expect the ratio of market cap / GDP to go up for those reasons as well.
> actually operates 24-7

Good one. They routinely shut down lines and stations for hours/days at a time. The L got shut down between Bedford & 8th Ave for the entirety of Memorial Day weekend. Even when lines are running perfectly, at night they only run once every 30-60 minutes. To riders the changes feel arbitrary and are impossible to predict. I've been stuck dozens of times in random places because I tried to use the wrong line at the wrong time. The only real way to know there's a problem ahead is to have the privilege of riding that line on a regular basis and reading the signs they post. If you look around almost every station will have posters denoting some change that's ongoing or coming up.
This explains why there are so many companies that make passenger jets.
Interesting analysis, but I'd not have included public debt as a risk factor. If anything, increasing public debt provides upward support for the equity market, regardless of whether the money goes to public investments, tax cuts or bad government spending.
Joe Polchinski’s Restless Pursuit of Quantum Gravity
China built the world’s largest telescope, but has no one to run it
What is the chance that would happen? ;-)
Let's see. I hope they will become competitive. They know how to produce quality combustion engine cars at scale, that's for sure.

But that the world's largest car manufacturer has to team up with another of the large manufacturers just to get a viable EV competitor on the market doesn't bode well. Right now they really don't have any decent EV on the market, any of them.

Toyota hopes to introduce a solid state battery type at some point in the early 2020s. Check it out here, where you can also see their latest EV concept car for ride sharing: prototype:https://www.engadget.com/2017/07/25/toyota-future-ev-battery...

At that time, Tesla's Model 3 will have been on the market some 3-7 years. Will they be able to catch up? I am not sure - To me it seems like the usual traditional car company in denial thinking it needs to make weird cars for weird EV fans. This is Mazda's much better looking concept: http://www.stuartsgarages.com/web/mazda-electric-car-planned...
No vital specs such as range has been provided, though.

Both the Asian, European and American competitors will not only be 3-4 or even 5-6-7 years behind. They will be hundreds of millions of miles behind in terms of autonomy, and thousands of charging stations behind. And so far, they are still stuck with the old structure of dealerships when accessing the markets; dealers that in many of the markets used to make a good chunk of their income on repairs and spare parts, both which is likely to be less important with EVs. And a large part of their manufacturing infrastructure and employees can only be used for combustion engine cars.

For each of them, if they flunk their first serious attempt at launching a competitive EV, you can add another 3 years or whatever the developing to production cycle is for vehicles. Right now, I have seen no-one - not a single one of them - with specs and design for even as much as a concept car that compares to the long range Model 3 now in production.

My bet is that those of the traditional combustion engine manufacturers that flunk their first attempt (and right now they all look as if they try to fail), will suffer huge losses from 2020- 2025 and that some of them may never recover.
This is something I have tried to bring up in several elections, and still do with rumors of new candidates. (as a bonus Wolfram Alpha will do this for you without much effort. For a toy example: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=age+bernie+sanders+at+i...)
have to say, i'm extremely skeptical of homomorphic encryption.

it just screams side channel attacks.

so skeptical i dont have the energy to find them, better to wait until something with monetary value is cruising around the internet using it.
We have the data that others don’t. Join the fraud fighting team
So a bunch of really wealthy people are grinding because someone might charge them for something they add for free for years ?

I'm sure the majority of them earned their money by giving away free stuff too. Yeah, right...
Show HN: Pipefy for Developers – New development platform built for agile teams