skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Virtu only lost money trading one day out of 1278 trading days between 2009 and 2014. In the most uncharitable analysis (1278/2; or the lost day happened in the middle), they had a 0.5^639 chance of doing that.

Maybe you disagree with 0.5 per day. Let's make it 0.9!

...But that's still 5.7 x 10^-30. How many firms do we need to exist for this to emerge by chance?

This and website bug bounties being sold on the black market are my two HN crusades. I have heard darts, I have heard coin flipping; I hear all manner of analogies from people who stubbornly insist or strongly imply that consistently, purposely beating the market is infeasible in principle.

But no one ever does a modicum of analysis to support whatever trite analogy that's thrown out, they just wave their hands and exclaim, "statistics!".

So here is something actually quantifiable. If you have something quantifiable to refute my analysis of your analogy in turn, please share it by all means.
I think food technology. As the worlds population grows, the demand for food and more productive ways to produce it will grow.

I think semi-automated systems will become more automated using some of the AI that is in the news today.

We may even see better automation on the programming front in terms of being able to create stuff.

I think we will see more software and automation in government at all levels. There is drive to automate everything, but governments tend to be even slower than enterprise to adopt things given the budgetary process.

Lastly, I think we will see some significant gains in genetic programming that come out of the CRISPR technique. If you recall the tech that allowed us to sequence the human genome was very slow at first. Eventually they developed faster techniques, and not you can sequence things an order of magnitude faster.
Fun fact, swift took some of its early inspiration from kotlin.
> I find it difficult to migrate my Java code to Kotlin or mix both languages in the same project. I think I will be confused all the time!

Have you actually tried it or you just think you will be confused?
> They decided to pursue legal measures against MS for false claims.

Do you have a court case or docket you can point to?
Kotlin is far simpler than Scala which has a big emphasis on functional programming and OO, so not going to be super popular soon. It's also behind Kotlin in good ide support. Clojure is simpler, but mainly focuses on functional programming and is a lisp as well, so will also not be a great candidate for the masses.
I would like to see an expressive language like Ruby or Perl 6 that runs as fast as C and compiles very fast.
I'm not sure if this is the case, but often it is _possible_ to implement something in, e.g., the stdlib, in a way that is _functional_, but with the right VM support it might be much more performant.
Me. I run http://startupnews.com.au despite making no money doing it (as the plaintive pleas for sponsorship and donations on the site show). The Perth startup community needs it, so I run it.

There's similar blogs for every small community, run by people who care about that community. Usually unfunded, and only covering stories of interest to that community.
This woman brought guide dogs to America, and aid to thousands of blind people
Through happenstance I rode an bike with electric pedal assist a couple years ago, thinking that electric bikes were not for me, but why not try. I was instantly hooked, the high-quality pedal assists feel "magical", like you are just stronger or that your always headed down a gentle slope. They are also very quiet which helps make the experience (at least for me) a bit dream-like and surreal.

I really recommend everyone give one a test ride. For us, it ended up replacing our second car.
I agree with everything your saying, but he did link to an actual study which provides some support. Further, a lot of our drugs like aspirin where discovered in nature. So, while far from enough evidence to change my behavior it is interesting.
Electric bikes are very popular in Tokyo. Many nurseries and schools forbid car drop offs of children. So parents speed around on e-bikes. Ive seen some parents with three kids on their bike. Child seat on front, child seat on back and baby in chest carrier.
A devastating look inside Venezuela's crisis-hit hospitals
The glut of housing will come with a massive loss in healthcare jobs, though.
That's the hope. Otherwise your diamond in the rough will remain a lump of coal forever.
> Don’t limit yourself to starting only what you think could be a billion dollar company

Small comment about valuation vs return. A lot of business types have really rotten valuation yet provide a somewhat steady income stream for the owners. The valuations are crummy because the potential passive income stream is too small. However these businesses can be lucrative for an active investor/manager.
I'm not sure what's supposed to be terrifying about it. This planet has way too many humans on it.

We need to figure out how to cause our populations to decline naturally until we can get the number of humans down to the point where everyone can live good, happy, resource rich lives without cooking the planet.

Japan is on the vanguard of figuring out how to do that. Obviously there are difficulties involved. Not the least is dealing with the relentless march of Capitalism which requires every year be more, and bigger, than the year before, lest the whole thing fall over.
As discussed earlier, there's no evidence that this is relevant.
I wonder if the clickbait and fake news is an English-language phenomenon, because of the huge potential global market for English-language articles?
It's a little funny that you're defending the integrity of calling the status quo "AI", don't you think?
I was thinking about something similar just this weekend - how animals are divided into successive epochs of increasing speed and power based on their food source and metabolism. So reptiles have their typically slow (though efficient) metabolisms, then mammals appeared which go racing around with their hot little bioreactor bodies generating more power, humans taking the next step and pre-cooking food to gain more endurance than essentially any other animal... it's all about your fuel source.
Kotlin Komparisons: Login settings
This is not just a Japan problem, much of Europe and the United States is also in the same boat.
The main entity with commercial interest in splitting up the JVM is Oracle. Jigsaw was originally just a plan to split up the runtime into components and the module aspects were added later. OpenJDK is now being used by Google on all Android devices and Oracle is probably furious that there's no way to extract licensing fees from this arrangement. To me that sounds like plenty of ulterior motive.

OpenJdk has a linking exemption which would allow Oracle to develop closed source extensions to the JVM if it was built in a modularized way. Why else would Oracle continue to push something that's been so controversial for years? The only explanation I can think of is that it would allow them to put other more profitable plans into motion.

It's definitely speculation but not totally baseless. Oracle has been increasingly aggressive about monetizing Java in the last few years. I don't think it's unreasonable for them to add language features to increase their ability to make money from Java licensing.
This article doesn't mention Kathy Sierra, but as someone who has worked on User Onboard with Samuel, I know he'd want to give her some of the credit. https://www.amazon.com/Badass-Making-Awesome-Kathy-Sierra/dp...
The "UX design" terminology confused me. It seems that the author is advocating more for tools and methods that let us visualize & inspect how a given neural network comes to be based on its training data, and why it gives a particular output for a particular input.

This ties back into the "neural networks are black boxes" argument that's been floating around for a while, no?

Is there any concrete research in this field? The initiatives the author points to seem to be mainly about highlighting the problem, not addressing it.

That being said, while I agree with it in principle, in practice what would compel companies to make their neural network based systems understandable and analyzable to users? There are plenty of non deep learning based systems in my life that I already don't have access to the internals of; for instance, it'd really be great if I could actually see the set of formulas that determine my credit score, for one example amongst many.
Softbank's Son Chases Boyhood Dream with $100 Bil Fund
That's a reason why it's important to you that the Palestinians not openly support terrorism. But that's not what I'm asking. I'm asking: can you show us an example of an NYT story about the conflict (or any other aspect of Palestine/Israeli relations) in which those details were needed but absent? It would help to have an idea of what those absent details do to a specific story.
Finding childcare is nearly impossible. Sponsoring visas for domestic help (like what professional women in HK do) is nearly impossible unless the sponsor is C-level in a major corporation.
> This planet has way too many humans on it.

Don't cut yourself on that edge there, buddy.
To be fair, Oracle released Java 7 and especially Java 8 with a bunch of goodies and improvements that increased productivity and brought new paradigms to the language in an elegant way (considering it's still Java). But Google already de-facto forked the language a long time ago for use in Android, so these improvements were nowhere to be found in Android for a long time.

The mention of Jigsaw is a red herring. Jigsaw, after long years of design-by-committee, suddenly devolved into a proxy war between enterprise players invested in existing module solutions. It's not about making parts proprietary at all; rather, it's about protecting existing investments in modularization ecosystems, the kinds of which form an important part of several companies' business models, all interspersed with legitimate technical and practical concerns about how to be prescriptive without being overly restrictive. The concern whether parts of a Java implementation can be made proprietary doesn't depend on the Jigsaw question, because there are several Java implementations today that are proprietary in part or whole, ranging from mediocre to marvellous, and they still manage to attract clientele.

However, I do agree that Kotlin is a signal to Oracle. It's a signal that Google has given the Android programming question, and the Java question a good amount of thought, and may have found a way to slowly transition off of a technology whose use literally resulted in them being sued, outcome notwithstanding; with Kotlin they can leverage compatibility with the lowest levels of the Java platform (and thus, all existing Java-coded Android code), give people a modern language that offers niceties and high productivity -- all courtesy of a partner whose interests align well with those of Google, and with whom they have cooperated before.

With Kotlin, Android can migrate off of Java without throwing away their existing investment in the body of code that happens to run on Android today, and do so in a way that makes it likely that developers will migrate voluntarily, vs. being forced.
You really should be adding under 5kg for electric assist. As long as you can easily recharge at work ~100w for 1h is really plenty of power in most areas. On level ground you only need ~60w to do 15 km/h which is about the energy output from walking. Add 100w assist and you can get up modest hills fast enough to stay balanced without all that much effort which means you can show up at work without needing to shower most days.
Android has not incorporated most of Java 7 or 8's new features so I don't think the pace of Java features has anything to do with the Kotlin adoption.
Once the babyboomers start selling for retirement home cash, or dying, many property bubbles will be popping.
Notice at least two MS employees responded to this thread. I posted myself in another one: https://twitter.com/yuhong2/status/863463634281746433
What's the "high math" we're talking about here? Stochastic calculus?
A lot of people have commented on the cost of living to salary balance, but the part they're missing out (which I think is crucial and the main reason I won't go back to Spain) is that it's quite inconvenient if you travel regularly to more expensive countries. Yes, 3k/month will do wonders in Spain but if you want to spend a few weeks in NYC and then some in London, your savings aren't gonna take you very far (first hand experience).

My suggestion is get a remote job that pays close to what you'd earn on SF or NYC and then spend your time wherever you want. Barcelona is a great city. Don't believe the scaremongering expats with their "oh they spoke to me in Catalan" horror stories because it's mostly bullshit or very rare. I'm mixed race and grew up in Spain (which means the often assume I'm a foreigner and they default to English) so trust me when I tell you that you won't have any problems whatsoever. I can speak Catalan and Castellano as well but I've never had any issues speaking whichever I preferred. Trust me, 99.999% of people in Barcelona (city) speak perfect Castellano and if you hear stories of bartenders speaking Catalan or Russian, be suspicious simply call their bullshit. Everybody loves having an interesting story to tell, but they're just stories.
Omg. Bookmarking this.
Had the chance to take a job overseas but had no idea how to transport my animal.

I clearly failed at googling, and the thought of a cruise ship never crossed my mind.
IRS Bitcoin Probe of Goes Too Far, Says Republicans
Hypetrogen
you get highest current flow when the internal resistance of the battery is equal to the load resistance.

i use this analogy with all tools; if you are using cmake, do it the cmake way (an example). if you don't, the compromises blunt the advantages.
What would flip that back around is remote work. The only reason jobs are in cities is the collaboration effects that it confers on service and thinking jobs. If we can get the technology to completely match or exceed those effects people will have a lot fewer trade offs to spreading out. At the same time, the main reason I would live in a city is access to people that only live in cities (you can have a lot more minorities in dense spaces). I imagine the future could be microcommunities of like minded people, or theme communities (much like we have on the internet now). One can argue that's what the suburban moves in the 20th century was all about. Diversity helps people access like minded people and exposes them to other viewpoints to an extent, but if you can still get the viewpoints why not live in a community of like minded people?

Where are the gay suburbs?
I don't understand why the title was changed to the more clickbaity 'terrifying and unprecedented'. It may be unprecedented (unsure) but why should it be terrifying? The article discusses the solutions:

- open up the economy to more people (women, in Japan's male-dominated workforce)

- open up the economy to more people (immigrants -- while unpopular in Japan, certainly acceptable in plenty of other places; look at Germany's example of the Gastarbeiter in the 50s/60s to make up for the labor force lost in war)

- automation.

It's not like these solutions are unavailable to the rest of the OECD. Personally I look forward to a massively automated economy to free human creativity and leisure.
So the airship puts down a container. Now it needs ballast for not launching in the stratosphere with the reduced weight. You could use water because it can be easily pumped into the airship, but water is not everywhere. Now you need a truck to drive enough water to the destination …

I'm not saying it's impossible but its a big hindrance.

Fun Fact: In the late 90s a german startup named Cargolifter tried this idea. They build a small prototype and one the biggest airship hangar in the world. Then they ran out of money. The hangar today is a tropical indoor water park.
The speed will certainly be better, due to the way NMOS works.

NMOS is pretty terrible.
Housing is still ridiculously cheap in much of the US. Should everybody have the right to live in the trendiest city?
No, Jack & Jill were horridly poorly performing, thats why they killed them.
Bitcoin: Only 802 People Told the IRS About Coinbase Profits
You're not wrong, but don't hold your breath.

The average age of the boomers is an spry 67 with a life expectancy of ~85.
Android devices after 5.0 (when ART was introduced) precompile ~~JVM~~ Dalvik bytecode to LLVM on the way to native code. If you want to deploy native code that was compiled via LLVM, you've been able to do that for a while.

The native API is pretty crappy, but trying to shoehorn LLVM IR into a Java bytecode replacement (which is not an easy task, see PNaCl) doesn't do anything to help.

Edit: ART handles Dalvik bytecode, not Java bytecode.
To get an idea of how much work is involved in getting LLVM to run a high level language, take a look at Clasp, which does exactly this. It's not a small project and it's definitely not an easy thing to do.

https://github.com/drmeister/clasp
Yes. Most often, it's a business management and priority issue than anything technical. It's far easier for developers to point to AMP limitations and just say "its just not supported" rather than try to argue against adding more cruft to the page and get overruled anyway.
I don't know where you read that but that is not the story that I'm familiar with.

Applications for the transistor were known before the device even existed.

The problems were first to make them reliably, then to make them in quantity and finally to make them cheap enough. All those were overcome and the revolution that followed has not stopped even today.
Cyclist here. It's a different type of vehicle than a leg-powered bike and therefore not cheating at all... unless you're recording your rides on Strava, then it is.

More bikes is a very good thing, whether human or human/electric powered.
Attempting a start-up is like learning how to walk. You will fall, and it's really hard to teach someone. You have to learn on your own in your own way.

For me two important points 1) always surround yourself with people smarter than you
2) it's all about money. Hit the ground and start making money

All in all this is a very good post. I cringed at the first line when I read he was non techie. That explains most of the failure. Plus his choice of co-founder.

My startup doesn't even have a good logo, or confirmed co-founders or is registered but with focus on earning revenues we are making money
They're just haters. If you love QA then stick with it. Programmers aren't going to stop making mistakes.
It's unfortunate and I sympathize with the author. But that said most of, if not all, the lessons-learned points he makes could have been potentially avoided if he had just spent some time reading even one or two startup-how-to books. There are hundreds of those now.

There are many many founders who have been through the exact same situation in almost exactly the same fashion. And they have shared their experiences. So why not read up or ask advice from them before jumping head first? It doesn't take long; 2-3 weeks tops.

This is my advice to future entrepreneurs -- read on a variety of topics before you jump in head first. No matter what your idea is or area of expertise gain some understanding of at least some areas of running a business including but not limited to marketing, sales, technology, finance, incorporation, financing, growth, hiring practices, legal, equity, etc. etc..
Yes, yes, real AI died in the AI Winter because the settlers didn't have enough parenthesis to last until spring, it was all very tragic, and now we're all just stirring the pile of linear algebra until the results look good. [1] But that doesn't make IBM's marketing copy any better. And IBM loves making grandiose claims that don't work out in practice. [2]

[1] https://xkcd.com/1838/
[2] https://www.healthnewsreview.org/2017/02/md-anderson-cancer-...
The upcoming release of Android studio/it's Gradle plugin support a lot of Java 8 features right out of the box. No need for plugins to patch things like lamdas
I'm going to sound like a broken record here but there are policy and other decisions being made in the Bay Area that are restricting the housing supply and driving up the price of existing housing. You don't have to be a bystander in this process, you can help lobby for more supply.

A list of propositions and legislation to support (SF, Brisbane, Mountain View, the CA state legislature) can be found here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14195301
The story is not as simple as it seems on the surface. Google used Apache Harmony which was discontinued because Oracle would not give Apache a TCK license. Without being able to run the Technology Compatibility Toolkit, Apache Harmony could not become a certified compatible Java implementation. This would greatly limit usage, so Apache pulled the plug on the project.

Oracle killed Apache Harmony which is how Android got "stuck" at Java 6.
It must be pretty good. I was at the IO keynote and when they announced Kotlin support for Android, the guy sitting in front of me had to remove his sunglasses and wipe away tears of joy. Twice.
> Kotlin is exactly what Google needed to light a fire under Oracle's ass. They've been dragging their feet on new Java features for years.

The Google that still doesn't support all of Java 8 on Android?

https://developer.android.com/studio/preview/features/java8-...

I think the Kotlin Android phenomenon is really more a result of Android developers being unhappy with Google's stewardship than they are with Oracle's.
While it's good that you know about this optimization, the key point is look at the evidence first. It's surprisingly hard to temporarily ignore what you know, and just use your eyes, but it's so important.