Yes, that's what I wanted to say. Which is why I said it.

Let's look at some facts:

* No one in the market agrees that energy will abundant and cheap in 10 years due to solar and batteries becoming far cheaper than natural gas. Natural gas companies have not been shorted to zero. Utilities are continuing to make capital expenditures. Natural gas plants are continuing to be built. Corporations are continuing to sign long-term power purchase agreements with renewable generators that lock in prices for 20 years. Maybe everyone is suffering from a collective delusion, or maybe energy transitions take decades.

* The EIA projects roughly flat energy consumption out to 2040, with natural gas and renewables taking share from coal and nuclear. Hardly abundant.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2017).pdf

* For natural gas power plants, about 1/3 of the levelized costs are capital costs.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation....

* There are strong dynamic effects that will slow the transition. As the penetration of solar grows, the non-solar consumption peak will move to night-time and the marginal value of solar falls by about 1/2. Conversely, as natural gas plants shut down, their cost of fuel will fall and the value of their spinning reserve and other ancillary services will rise.

* Building a transmission backbone for new utility-scale solar will take decades. San Diego's Sunrise PowerLink took 5 years of environmental review and construction, for instance:

https://www.irwaonline.org/eweb/upload/web_novdec_12_Sunrise...

* Increasing the supply of large power transformers to build out a new transmission backbone for utility-scale solar will face significant supply constraints:

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Transfor...

* Today no energy storage solution is economical. Probably the solution with the great hope of scale-based cost reductions is batteries. How many batteries would we need? World electricity consumption is about 50,000 GWh per day. If solar displaces natural gas, then for overnight and peak backup, we need storage on that scale.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=world+electricity+consu...

* Can we hope to even approach producing 50,000 GWh of batteries within 10 years? Global annual production of batteries is around 30 GWh a year right now. There are factories under construction now to bring that up to around 100 GWh around 2020. Given that factories take years to design and build, that means we need to scale lithium production by roughly a factor of 1,000 and scale battery production roughly a factor of 1,000 and get the plans and investment lined up in the next couple years. Is Tesla ready for 1,000 Gigafactories? Absolutely not.

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/l...

Regarding your transistor example - First, according to Wikipedia and Science magazine, the transition was gradual over the 50s and 60s:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_tube

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2012/05/return-vacuum-tube

Second, the size of vacuum tube industry was never the size of the global energy industry. Building new transistors factories can be done. But building new factories to ramp up to trillions in battery and solar cell production within a single decade is ludicrous.

P.S. I would appreciate it if your comments didn't assert to me 'You're saying' or 'Maybe you're trying to say.' It's more polite if you say 'What I think you are saying is....'