skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Buffett has always invested in the market. The last half of his career he has made many private investments, but his fortune was built on public stock market investing.

His average returns with the Buffett Partnership were in excess of 35% a year. That's not coin flipping. The odds of a 35% return when the stock market is returning 10% is probably closer to one in a hundred. doing that for a decade straight is insane.

Then follow it with 40+ years where he beat the market every year but a couple, and not barely crushing on average by over 10% year (probably 10-1 against each year), even when handicapped by an enormous portfolio.

(1/100)^10*(1/10)^40=?
Wow, this Bill Simpson person does not sound like a nice person, nor a smart one...
Not quite.

Pick a random real number in the range [0,1]. Because there are an infinite amount of such numbers, the probability of picking any specific real number is precisely 0. However, you will still end up picking some number.

EDIT: Fixed range
FTC suing Qualcomm for abusive market behavior
this is hilarious. don't know why you're being down voted ;)
You could try sendy (sendy.co) - self hosted with a one time cost. Worked well for us on a $5/month vps. The UI is not as slick as mailchimp and the composer isn't as good, but it works if your needs are simple.
Does anyone here use parsers and know of practical applications for them?
The 5 Top Task Management Tools That Cover It All
yes, but Chrome bugs me about switching it to Gmail every time.
JWT with RSA or Ed25519 is definitely not a bad idea there.
Who says Haskell is so great? What does "better" even mean?
"With these abusive messages, he incited others to attack and unleashed a stream of hate, directly violating The Twitter Rules."

No he didn't. He expressed an opinion, but no, he didn't incite others to attack anyone. Sorry, Ellen.

"Trump is also using Twitter to avoid accountability with the press"

Nobody needs to be accountable to the press, whether you like it or not. That's not how the system works. He's allowed to tell his side of the story as well if the press doesn't want to report it.

"Shouldn’t people with millions of angry followers be held to a higher standard? Indeed, as a blue-check verified user, Trump gets extra privileges, including timeline and user filters."

in that case, we have a lot of musicians that will also be held to higher standards.

I also found it sort of interesting that they disabled comments on this article. It's as if they want to do the same thing that they're accusing Trump of doing - one way discourse.
IQ is normalized, but that doesn't change the shape of the distribution. It changes the scale, but not the shape.

I agree there's a lot of details that need to be done to make this more rigorous, and I was hoping that the article would be more thorough.

But this has been on my mind a lot lately.

Basically, most human [behavioral] traits are normally distributed, or something close to it, which is radically different from income distributions. At some point, the shape of an income distribution must become inconsistent with what we know about the shape of human trait distributions and wages under fair labor markets, etc. It should be possible to test whether or not an income distribution is consistent with a given trait and market model, and to compare them statistically.

I appreciate McCardle's writing, and read that in the past, but think it's sort of tangential to the points being raised here. Furthermore, many of her arguments aren't supported by the data. That is, income inequality really exists across a wide range of professions. If anything, I suspect there's some demographic effects involved (for example, older, very well-established individuals with a "lock" in a given labor market, shutting out younger individuals).

They also don't even get into cheating as another factor that's nonrandom and might be construed as a "skill" but is arguably unrelated to "real" market value.

All of this is consistent with arguments that the biggest predictor of returns is length in the market. That is, you're better off putting things in a very diversified index portfolio than anything else.

Someone else mentioned Buffet. Even if things were random, with enough people, you'd still end up with people who look like they're not benefiting randomly.

Anyway, I'm not really trying to question Buffet's investing skill. I'm sure that it's not totally random, but I suspect that there is a big element of randomness also. And income per se is different from investment skill per se.
Yes, that's true. Shenzhen real estate prices are closing on that of Manhattan's when you talk about urban centres. It is also the most expensive city to live in in China (again, true only for urban centres. Suburbs are still livable).

These two things together made the cost of doing business here prohibitive, unless your business is not real estate speculation. Local electronics businesses closing one after another. The famed Shanzhai garage companies fared even worse than established businesses. There not a single one left now. They died to phenomenal brain drain levels, costs, market saturation, US an EU domestic consumption going down, and people leaving for "cheaper and easier live abroad"
"μcrypt is is a command-line tool and Python library that uses a shared key to compress and decrypt/encrypt files that wraps proven tools NaCl and gzip. It's designed to be fast and easy to install."

tl;dr: based on NaCl/libsodium (X25519), w/ a CLI wrapper and very small Python library in one file.
I recently submitted a bug in the search to DDG. It's very nice to be able to help improve the project. And the bug reporter is neat.

Never seen anything comparable in competitive products.
They prob prefer to have fake accounts than to block a real user that wants to sign up (or lost his email account and signs up again, etc etc)
Everyone does the same thing in their personal lives.

"% chance of getting in trouble if I punch this asshole in the face?"

"% chance of getting a speeding ticket if I go 15 above?"
I can't really give you "more details," I was trying to use Discord with some people and every couple minutes or so the chat would freeze up and then flood with messages. It wasn't just me, it was everyone in the room's Discord doing it, and it really doesn't seem like a client-side bug.
> Because you DO ban trolls from open conversations.

Only if you're compelled to censor away any comments you don't approve.
Agree with you! Thanks for elaborating!
Oh snap, didn't know this was supported yet.

I think the tooling isn't available for transforming Reason => JSX in a consistent development environment from what I gather, but I haven't paid attention for a few months.
I'm not aware of any common libraries that don't. Where did you get the token cracked in your example code?
Slides available at the following link.

https://www.openbsd.org/papers/linuxconfau2017-libtls/
Wow, this lecturer is great! I think this is the most intuitive explanation of Kalman filters I've seen yet. I've seen other lecturers try to quickly jump into state space and lose students with big matrices.

I would have paid good money for this if I wasn't already familiar with the material. The clarity is up there with The Essence of Linear Algebra: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjBOesZCoqc

Trading math videos on the Internet--definitely nerds.
Autoscaling is free to set up on AWS [1]. All web server code should be able to scale, and there's nothing special about autoscaling. The easiest (and default) way is to just spin up servers based on CPU usage.

For Heroku, you can use a third-party service that costs $10 per month [2].

If you use Amazon RDS, it's pretty easy to scale your database both vertically and horizontally [3].

If you can use Amazon DynamoDB [4], scaling is something you will never, ever have to worry about. Not even when you have millions of daily users.

[1] https://aws.amazon.com/autoscaling/

[2] https://www.hirefire.io/

[3] https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/database/scaling-your-amazon-rd...

[4] https://aws.amazon.com/dynamodb/
Assuming you meant [0,1], I don't think it's accurate to describe infinitesimals like lim->0 as being equal to zero. Adding an infinite number of infinitesimals gives a nonzero result, but adding an infinite number of zeros does not.
Isn't Javascript is the most-used functional language that compiles to Javascript?

> [Javascript is] a multi-paradigm language, supporting object-oriented, imperative, and functional programming styles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JavaScript

The author must have a very particular idea what "functional" means to include Clojure but not JS. That's fine, though it'd be enlightening if he shared it.
>You mention that Sprint and Verizon have significant CDMA networks. What is their migration strategy for 4G? To my knowledge the only 4G standard in use is from GSM.

I think you are confusing the terms. GSM is a family of standards some of which are based on CDMA, like aforementioned UMTS which is the most widely deployed network standard in the world right now. Because UMTS was not based on TDMA it was a very costly upgrade for most operators since it required entirely new equipment. LTE on the other hand is yet another completely different beast (OFDMA) not compatible with any existing infrastructure so everyone has exactly the same migration strategy to LTE regardless if they are CDMA or TDMA based.
Capturing the Northern Lights
Webpack and Rollup are similar, but are best for slightly different use cases. Rollup, as far as I know, is best when you're trying to bundle just ES6 modules. Webpack supports a much wider variety of input formats, both built-in (CJS/AMD/ES6 modules) and through loaders.

At the moment, Webpack appears to be the most-used bundling tool for modern web apps. Rollup does produce smaller output, and seems to possibly be a better choice if you're developing a library rather than an application.

There are discussions going on about trying to leverage some of Rollup's capabilities in Webpack to get the best of both worlds.
I've always wondered, given this "stereotype" if there isn't more to it. Is it possible that because, in general, people who were "nerds" were likely more of a social outcast growing up, that they have essentially become "hardened", if you will, to social graces. They spent so much of their developmental years being teased/ridiculed/whatever that what is "normal" treatment of others has essentially become foreign to them? Sure, you can form a relationship with your family, but that really doesn't extend to how you interact with people outside of your inner circle.

There seems to be such a strong correlation, curious if anyone has ever studied it. It seems we've gotten to the point that so very much of our adult behavior can be traced to childhood events/upbringing that this can't be an outlier.
Ask HN: What are the best IT war stories?
Experts have not and do not predict a imminent crash as a likely scenario. Possible, yes. Likely, no. They have predicted costly and painful unemployment, wealth destruction, and increased civil unrest... all mostly avoidable if swift action is taken to rebalance China's economy. The inaccuracies are your's.
From what I've inferred from the article "better" means: easier to write large-scale, composable systems that engineers can reason about easily.
I completely agree with the heart of this article, and its reasoning for Go's popularity (e.g. familiarity for people who know languages like C and Java). It speaks to my experiences, anyway.

I went down the Go path myself for a while, because it was familiar, but I found that it had many of the same issues I was trying to get away from in other languages. As the article points out, I also found Go "boring."

After searching for a while, I ended up wanting to use Haskell, but it was taking me too long to become proficient with Haskell's unfamiliar syntax and functionality; which is why, the author posits, Haskell hasn't taken over the world. I ended up using Elixir instead. It offered me the functional paradigm I was looking for in Haskell, and the ease of managing large-scale applications, while also offering a familiar and easy to learn syntax. I'm still studying Haskell, and may eventually employ it professionally, but for now, Elixir is working for me just fine.
To be fair, grandma and joe sixpack don't even know firefox exists.
You've chosen to see the world through a binary lens: Either you're with us or against us. The answer to every extreme is to race as fast as possible to the opposite extreme. Shades of gray are illusions. Balance is an illusion. Compromise is an illusion. Either articles support my beliefs or they are false.

Any two analogous subjects in the entire universe can be demonstrated to be similar, as well as demonstrated to be different. That is the inherent nature of similarity and analogy. If two analogous subjects were in fact identical in every way, they would cease to be two distinct entities, as they would be identical.

In which jurisdiction of The United States of America is it "clearly lawful" to grab women by their genitalia without their consent?

What evidence lead you to conclude that I did not read the article?

How have you arrived at the unequivocal primacy of your own ideas?
ddg.com
This sounds like the reaction against "Fake News", "Fake History", etc.

What that really tells me is this is an area of study that the Establishment does not want you to follow so it will label it to apply social pressure to mitigate the effects & discourage people from following it.

The thing is, nature has a way of not caring what the Establishment thinks. It does care on a surface level, but it also conspires to cause the collapse of the socio-information paradigms that the Establishment creates.

Given we have a soup of information & no grounding central authority to give us "objective reality", we ought to utilize other techniques. I don't happen to know what these techniques are, but I suspect that it has to do with network models, cognition models, perspectives (physical & information), attention schemas, faith, complexity, patterns, language, etc.
It isn't, actually. There is a difference between discrete and continuous probability distributions. Lotto numbers are a classic example of a discrete, finite space, and the probability of winning the lottery can be expressed precisely as a non-zero number. The probability of any individual event in a continuous probability distribution is exactly zero. You're free to dispute whether the continuum as a mathematical construct has validity when applied to the world of actual stuff, but that's a different debate and certainly doesn't have an obvious answer.
This paper only starts in 1976, so it skips the first 20 years of Buffett's career when he used virtually no leverage and had his highest returns.

It also has problems with the classifications of his investments. It's a common problem for academic analysis of investing, if value investing works then I should be able to outperform solely buy purchasing stocks at low PE ratios, right? This doesn't work, so value investing "can't" work.

The truth is it's a skill. You have to be able to find businesses with long term competitive advantages selling at a substantial discount to their intrinsic value. You have to have the courage of your conviction through market cycles and not abandon your purchases even cheaper. You have to eliminate sources of bias in your analysis (Buffett won't look at it's price before he analyses a business so his valuation isn't affected). If you read Buffett there are a ton of things he does to limit bias in his job.

None of this can be academically measured.
Why Trump’s Inauguration Is Not the Beginning of an Era – but the End
the way they carefully cherry pick numbers that support their cause, ignoring other numbers

Sometimes not so carefully. In a previous election, I remember seeing a purported screenshot from an evening news show that showed poll results, but skipped the #2 candidate entirely. Presumably they favored #1, and didn't want people to think there was a viable contender.

This screenshot itself could have been faked, but we've seen other serious blunders by TV news, like the fabricated names of officers on a downed flight.
> what is more improbable? that he is flipping a coin 40 times and got head all the time or that billions of people cant see what he sees?

Actually, the probability of getting a head 40 times is 1/2^40, which is 1 in about 1.1 trillion. If we assume there are 1 billions investors overall, the probability that at least one wins 40 times (which is the probability that one or several Warren Buffet could appear by luck in this simple model) is about 0.00091.

So yeah, in this particular phrasing of the question, with this model, the less likely option is to flip a coin and get head 40 times and the more likely option is that there is something else, like talent.
>>You just confirmed what keeps people from understanding this truth: confirmation bias.

It seems a bit hard to believe that this is just confirmation bias. What are the odds that he guesses correctly almost 40 times in a row? It is possible but not likely. If he is not really as good as we think he is then you could also say that he is doing insider trading and he just hasn't been caught.

Honestly I don't buy the theory that he is just extremely lucky.
This is a false narrative. Chinese debt impacts FX reserves, foreign direct investment, flow of trade and other factors tremendously. It's simply not true that China domestic debt can be isolated.
Well, SR did have a bit of a credibility issue when they started, and even today, it's not exactly a top journal. I understand it's not a criterion that the articles published are groundbreaking or similar, just that they're decent science and that the authors are willing to pay the hefty fee.

Edit:

See here for one particular discussion, from last year

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2016/06/15/mor...
totally agree with the naming, 'container tabs' is bad. Also I dont like the separation, like having one for banking and one for personal stuff. Arent they the same? I'd have the following:

personal: For personal banking, gmail, facebook, etc. very high security except on my trusted sites.

Work: Work stuff. high security.

Browsing: normal security, so everything works.

wild west: No history, high security. Like private mode. gmail, facobook, banks etc blacklisted so you cant log in even by accident.
Would have been worth more to SendGrid, don't you think?
Show HN: A Developer Story
OK, but...

Off != Supported.

If you're doing unsupported things and then complaining about how it's not working out for you, then you're doing it wrong.

Also, Basic gives Microsoft slightly more information than your browser leaks to every website you visit. Big fucking deal.

Furthermore, if you're going to do something that is unsupported, do it the right way and get a tool that is dedicated to the task which is run by a team that constantly keeps it up to date - https://www.safer-networking.org/spybot-anti-beacon/ - at the very least, if you don't trust Spybot, figure out what that tool is doing and do it yourself. If you install Anti-Beacon, you'll see that there is an option to "Refresh immunization" for the changes it applies after each reboot.
Nice reco. Which contemplative exercise do you find most useful?
Ask HN: Which was the most used programming language in 2016?
"How big can this “talent differential” be and still stay statistically consistent with the power law wealth distribution we see in the real world?

It turns out that it can’t be more than about 1 percent.2 A larger talent differential would produce a wealth distribution that is even more extreme than the real one, and that would not follow a power law."

I thought this article looked like it was going to be very obvious, but that passage got my attention. I'm all for experiments of this nature: one day AI will be doing it as a matter of course, on a massive scale.

Lines up with my observation, too: talent makes a difference, and it's about 1% over time. Kind of like compound interest. You can win out if you're very persistent and very determined and you fail a lot, because you're shooting for that 'luck' moment. There's no telling where it will strike, because it's luck! You have to stay in there and not go broke because it's luck, there's very little correlation between merit and success.

I suspect if you went by tenacity rather than 'talent', the number might be a lot more than 1%. But bozos can be tenacious too, which is a daunting thing to consider.
The weird thing is that there are statistics that are based basically on surveys, whose collection and analysis is essentially model- and assumption-free. Like the unemployment rate, or inflation, for example. And yet there are enough politicians who reject even those statistics, and that seems like a totally different category of stupidity. When that happens, it's hard to believe that the fault lies with the statisticians.
Taking the opportunity to plug my own D3 visualization using CoreNLP : )

http://nlpviz.bpodgursky.com/
>>Actually, the probability of getting a head 40 times is 1/2^40, which is 1 in about 1.1 trillion

I bet that the odds of beating the market 40 times are even worse since it is not a simple binary choice. The better analogy would be to choose the correct face of a 6 sided dice 40 times in a row, or even better a 100 sided dice. Calculate the odds for that! (I'm too lazy to do it myself)
Making YouTube Better in a Mobile, Cross-Screen World
It's perfectly fine to criticize trump. But to say he's illegitimate when you're a high ranking, respected senator, with a huge audience is crossing the line in my opinion. If Hillary won, and Paul Ryan said she was illegitimate because the DNC cheated Bernie, and gave her answers to debate questions etc... The public outrage directed at Ryan would be insane, he'd probably be removed from office.
Do you have a link to the original source repository/project page?
Hospitals warn Trump: Plan to repeal ACA will cost us $165B
Language-agnostic browsers are the perfect solution. Transpilers are a good-enough solution. And as they say, 'The perfect is the enemy of the good enough'.
In fact, there are now way more state/local .gov domains (~4,000) than federal .gov domains (~1,300).
Is there something wrong with how GitHub renders the Markdown you generate? The two examples given in the repo are not exactly human-readable and apart from bullet points I didn't notice any styling.
Are you using the above languages for your day to day job? Or are you working on your own side projects? If the later, can you give some examples of the things you're building.

I've tried learning them several times, but mostly stop after finishing the basic syntax :/
Haskell Tutorial and Cookbook is one of the two books I've been using to learn Haskell (the other one being Haskell Programming, by Christopher Allen and Julie Moronuki). Thanks for the excellent book!
.NET was (past tense) also a target of Scala. Also didn't work out.

Java is the greatest and worst part of Scala.

Without Java, the language would be far, far less popular than Haskell. With Java, it has a lot of forced compatibilities, e.g. null.
"It's not only statistically impossible for Buffett to be a fluke, it's statistically impossible for him not to possess a a skill providing a substantial edge in market investing. Not a "1% a year" type skill."

No. It's statistically impossible for him to be the NORM, or some sort of aspirational figure. Statistics is exactly how we can measure how much of a fluke he is, and how lucky he's been. Give him 2% for ultra-talent, and another 5% for trading on the fact that he's Warren Buffett, and he's still a fluke. He is just able to put a thumb on the scales for personal/emotional reasons: implying to people like you that he's not a fluke. The odds of him being in that position are very long odds, and he lucked out and has taken advantage of it. If you run a lottery and draw one ticket, that's long odds but by definition one person will have won.
Ticketed? I'm not sure you realize who is doing the shitting.