skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
"We are the employed horses of the 1800s about to be made unemployable by the advent of cars."

The article explicitly addresses that:

"Q. How about timescales longer than ten years? There was one class of laborers permanently unemployed by the automobile revolution, namely horses. There are a lot fewer horses nowadays because there is literally nothing left for horses to do that machines can't do better; horses' marginal labor productivity dropped below their cost of living. Could that happen to humans too, if AI advanced far enough that it could do all the labor?"

"A. If we imagine that in future decades machine intelligence is slowly going past the equivalent of IQ 70, 80, 90, eating up more and more jobs along the way... then I defer to Robin Hanson's analysis in Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence, in which, as the abstract says, "Machines complement human labor when [humans] become more productive at the jobs they perform, but machines also substitute for human labor by taking over human jobs. At ﬁrst, complementary eﬀects dominate, and human wages rise with computer productivity. But eventually substitution can dominate, making wages fall as fast as computer prices now do.""

"Q. Could we already be in this substitution regime -"

"A. No, no, a dozen times no, for the dozen reasons already mentioned. That sentence in Hanson's paper has nothing to do with what is going on right now. The future cannot be a cause of the past. Future scenarios, even if they seem to associate the concept of AI with the concept of unemployment, cannot rationally increase the probability that current AI is responsible for current unemployment."

"Q. But AI will inevitably become a problem later?"

"A. Not necessarily. We only get the Hansonian scenario if... (etc, etc.)"
I think signal made the right decisions raising the bar for encryption while maintaining extreme ease of use. Random Joe can click on it on the app store and chat with anyone in his addressbook that runs signal within a minute or so, with no expertise whatsoever.

However I see no reason why a similar p2p app couldn't manage similar without a central server. Trick is cell phones (at least on WAN) do not accept incoming connection. Additionally apple/android push aren't good for a p2p transport.

However adding supernodes (like the original skype) that could run on raspberry pi's, opensource routers, and similar embedded devices might just bright the gap. After all the cpu, bandwidth, and memory needs for instant messaging are pretty modest, even for many people sharing a raspberry pi.
I know how you feel as a customer. I felt similarly surprised when I read this post because I'd done an interview with The Newstack at KubeCon with the VP at Cluster. They were talking about their future plans as if there was indeed a long future. I remember thinking at the time how a company like Cluster will survive in the peak chaos of the container landscape at the moment but definitely did not expect to hear of such a sudden demise.

Regardless, I think giving customers a large amount of time to migrate over, etc. should be a priority. I personally really like the way Runscope handled their change in fortunes. Screw VC trajectory and build a strong personal business.
In short: Yes!

Process launching/capturing output/etc is there and very robust across platforms. Most of the other stuff you've mentioned I've seen support for but haven't used it in anger yet.

Bonus: Cross-compiling to other platforms is straightforward so you can build OSX/Linux/Windows all from one box.
I can't read it due to the site apparently being down for me, but - the issue isn't in the creative and skilled job markets, it's with the people who never went to university, wound up working e.g. retail for life, and now have family which is living on the brink of homelessness so they can't retrain without having them looked after.

The individualist viewpoint is to say "they fucked up, so screw them", but this is going to lead to people dipping into even more severe poverty and possibly even dying. I think we as individuals have a duty towards the society we were brought up in, which has helped most of us in at least some degree - so what are we going to do about it?
space bat real talk. people will only be paid if they can give something valuable in return. if people dont have something valuable to offer or they have something of low value, they will not be hired or they will be hired for very little. so if people cant get jobs or become chronically underemployed the question is 'why dont people have anything valuable to offer?' there are probably many reasons, education, technology substitution for human capital, 'automation' though i dont get accused of being a luddite (which i am not) or sharing their fallacies (which i do not). automation will not take away someones job irreplaceably until that automation is 'strong' enough to do lots of stuff. its getting there and it may be contributing to our problems. but its not a reason to panic, if less people can have jobs thats actually a very good thing, we can spend time on other cool stuff. its a reason to restructure our society a little. things that work often work for a period, very few things/processes continue or work indefinitely in the universe. so we could maybe rethink how our society distributes wealth, ownership, etc. how do we get people in a position to offer something valuable? economists spouting dogma and ignoring real problems is pretty dysfunctional. they teach this sort of junk in schools too. its important to fall back on what we know but its also important to re examine what we think we know. its important to think in simple principles when reexamining. gorund-up. economists/many scientists dont like doing that for more reasons that id like to get into here. it falls to people with common sense frankly, which i find lacking on blogs like this.
>Yes because Clinton is a responsible, experienced politician.

I have to take issue with your definition of "responsible". Regardless, many people feared Obama's presidency, but the rhetoric never got as absurd as it is with Trump. I cannot imagine Mrs. Bush publicly stoking fears of Obama before he took office, despite extreme differences in political views - what Mrs. Obama said was horribly disrespectful of the office of President and of the will of the American people. This kind of condescending dismissal of the opinions of a wide swath of the population is precisely why Trump won, and it's painfully obvious from their statements that the even most visible and influential Democrats have learned nothing from this election.

Trump has many issues. So did Clinton. They were both terrible candidates. And yet, the US that we all know and love will still be here when he leaves office - despite radical assertions to the contrary by otherwise rational people.
Care to explain how you would do that?
The first three are him finding his feet, and his voice. They really start to become excellent with the fourth novel, Mort. Hopefully you ordered that one!
Is there a service that's shutting down? As I understand it, Flocker is an open source product you're meant to self-host.
They're not owed debt. They own a piece of the company. When the assets are liquidated they will get their share unless they are on the shit-end of a liquidation preference clause.
To avoid the ire of the US gov't and getting press coverage in articles like this? Heh.
Firstly, even without a concrete mechanism morals still exist. You're actually the one referencing the idea of an omnipotent government actor and needing to create an explicit constraint.

But an underlying philosophy of libertarianism is actually to find mechanisms that don't involve centralized ("state") actors. For one example, if more individuals sought out Free software, the Googles of the world would have a less "scalable" audience.
Boring and low risk: index fund

Exciting and high risk:

$15K in Bitcoin

$5K in Ethereum

$20K in the stocks I think have a huge future (tech, renewables, biotech, GMO)

$5K in metals I think will be in huge demand

$5K in small cap stocks with some basic research.
It's really good. I'll vouch for it as someone who has been using the mobile apps on both platforms, and the web application(s) on the desktop for over a year now. They're great. Battery isn't a problem; messages NEVER get lost.

I actually came to matrix after trying to write an XMPP client, believe it or not. The matrix protocol is WAY better equipped for the future than XMPP is: it simply has the core designs necessary to make it federate well and do message sync without losses. (XMPP doesn't. (Unless you count a half-dozen XEPs, none of which are reliably implemented in all clients. But we're getting increasingly parenthetical here; by comparison, matrix Just Works.))
"This isn't idle speculation: it's exactly what happened to horses once technology obsoleted them which caused them to die off except for some very narrow cases and vanity competitions."

The article does explicitly address this. Do you think the response is unsatisfying, and if so, could you explain why?

"Q. How about timescales longer than ten years? There was one class of laborers permanently unemployed by the automobile revolution, namely horses. There are a lot fewer horses nowadays because there is literally nothing left for horses to do that machines can't do better; horses' marginal labor productivity dropped below their cost of living. Could that happen to humans too, if AI advanced far enough that it could do all the labor?

A. If we imagine that in future decades machine intelligence is slowly going past the equivalent of IQ 70, 80, 90, eating up more and more jobs along the way... then I defer to Robin Hanson's analysis in Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence, in which, as the abstract says, "Machines complement human labor when [humans] become more productive at the jobs they perform, but machines also substitute for human labor by taking over human jobs. At ﬁrst, complementary eﬀects dominate, and human wages rise with computer productivity. But eventually substitution can dominate, making wages fall as fast as computer prices now do."

Q. Could we already be in this substitution regime -

A. No, no, a dozen times no, for the dozen reasons already mentioned. That sentence in Hanson's paper has nothing to do with what is going on right now. The future cannot be a cause of the past. (etc.)"
You're wrong about what the Clinton staffer said. He said, in article 1 that you've linked: “You and your friends will die of old age and I’m going to die from climate change. You and your friends let this happen, which is going to cut 40 years off my life expectancy.”

It is plainly false to claim that he is going to die during the 4 years of Trump being in office. Please don't lie.

It's quite likely that with the RCP 8.5 climate change model, which could be feasible under a Trump administration since he has stated many times that he wants to increase the use of climate change inducing energy sources, someone who is 25 years old right now could die from climate change's apocalyptic effects when they are a senior. As for 40 years off his life expectancy, that's possible, depending on what life expectancy could be by the time he reaches that age.
Well, either the threat is a private group, then WhatsApp or even Google Hangouts is secure enough.

Or the threat is a government, then Signal is not secure enough either, because the US govt can just force Google and OWS to ship modified APKs.
Great question. I'm curious about what others do as well.

By day I am a .NET developer who typically uses Visual Studio. I do all of my development on an Azure VM with all of my dev tools on it. This is very useful because I can access it from anywhere and don't muck up a physical machine doing it. I use a standard F4 instance and stay under my free MSDN credits most months as long as I remember to turn it off (automation has fixed this recently ;). Not exactly what you mean, but lots of the same benefits.

But, I do like to tinker and see what all the cool kids are using, so have tried most of the ones you mention as well. I do think this model will become way more common, but none have stuck so far for me. Most of that is that I have customers that use VS and have a hard time imagining them using anything else. But I also felt the "free SKU" on some of these to be a little limiting. One or two projects or public-only projects means I have to commit to use in my day job. I don't fault them for making money, but there is a barrier there that limits me from using or recommending it. Also, if I'm learning something new - especially tooling like webpack/grunt/gulp/yo/etc.- it can be difficult to translate "getting started" style documentation to the specific environment. If something goes wrong, I'm unsure if it's the environment or me (though I assume the later ;)

As many have suggested, gomix is changing this some for me. I've used it to learn node a bit more, and as a place for one-off tests of JS/HTML/CSS issues. As with the others, I feel like I'd have a hard time recommending it for production use at the moment, but really like it for things I don't necessarily want in my or my customers' source control. It's zero-friction and "just works" for a certain class of problem.

My _hope_ is that these mature so that 1) there is less vendor lock-in and barrier-to-entry and 2) get more popular so that certain types of applications don't need a full on dev environment to code for.
There may be new jobs that come around, but new jobs require retraining. And what if we automate those new jobs faster than people can be reasonably expected to retrain for them?
It could be a while before taxi drivers stop stepping in front of self driving uber cars with drill in hand (slash tires, run).
Eliezer really needs to learn how to stick to his areas of expertise. When he talks about decision theory or the mathematical formalisms of AI it can be spectacular; when he wades into economics or quantum mechanics it's frequently embarrassing.
Thanks.

The above example was actually using two entirely different interfaces. It seems like rust is quite similar to the OO subset I prefer to use. In this particular case it would have been a better match because traits can implement methods.

Rust is on my "to learn" list over the holidays.
not to quibble, but no, they're not literally owed debt. The assets of the company are used to pay off any actual debt (payroll taxes, outstanding invoices to vendors, etc). Only then is any remaining money distributed to the equity holders. They take absolutely last.
"Nothing fails like success"
You're doing your employer a disservice :) Google implemented a system called Content ID and does check every video that is uploaded.

Oftentimes uploaders have to heavily crop or otherwise distort the video to get it to upload without getting caught by the detection system.
https://www.raisin.com

Disclaimer: I work there
Partially. They're moving towards it, but it obviously doesn't help that only half of the app is actually open source.
Careful. There's so much BS in that guy's myth story. [0]

[0] http://www.snopes.com/business/origins/fedex.asp
Naming directories seems like an odd choice. Sounds like aliases?

Regardless, pushd/popd/dirs is a tough experience. Seems capable of a lot, but I only use it for bouncing between two directories, typically.

The tool I like, but can't remember the name of is basically 'cd ${PWD:src/tst}'. Only, a little more terse.

Haven't used it in a while either, since I've primarily switched to eshell.
Terrible video. Even the creator admits he was probably wrong with the points that he made. Low quality youtube video that doesn't hold up when you actually look at the points he's making. Humans are not horses.
Take a look behind-the-scenes with design documents from the Legend of Zelda
Yes. k8s is cool but it is vastly overcomplicated for the needs of the non-Googles. We've been porting my company's production infrastructure to it over the last year and while it's been fun, I don't think it's been the correct thing for us.

Since suggesting your company is not in the same class of the companies that see literally billions of unique users every day, and thus may not need such overcomplicated solutions, is sure to make your boss irate, it's a good idea to familiarize with whatever new hotness has Facebook or Google's name attached to it.

Your clueless colleagues will race each other to announce the latest Google/FB engineering blog post in Slack so they can look the smartest and then convince your boss that since your Google-dom will be upon you tomorrow, you must adopt HotNewStuff today. This impulse is behind the proliferation of Hadoop and "Big Data", containers and orchestration, and MongoDB and NoSQL. All of these are useful tools that are valuable and good as necessary, but widely abused because people who don't really know what they're doing think this will give them an out.

You'll be stuck maintaining something interesting but really not mature or production-ready like k8s for years, just about long enough for it to become smooth and stable, at which time something else will come along to repeat the cycle. :)
This range is accurate.
Why? Google doesn't know who you are chatting with, or even the size of the messages you are sending. Google just sends a "wake up signal and check for messages". That's it.
Yes, that accounts for one part, the one with ideas behind, a style, a urban and a life project. And then there is the other part, the loosely inspired, derived copies with no real plan.

Not sure which part brought the worst failures :-)
Delegating doesn't imply he knows wtf he's doing. The fact he nearly scuttled his fortunes in the early 90s indicates a complete and utter lack of understanding of business on his part.
What was your favorite Python talk of 2016?
> I called these “Friends of ClusterHQ” by the sobriquet “FoCkers”

To me this just sounds like a shot at irony by combining crudity with eloquence, fully agree with your sentiment though.

Mark Davis is pretty tone-deaf, it reads like "hahaha good times, didn't we have a good run, FoCkers?" while the message is "here's a bunch of problems and you probably need to work overtime".
> When a company goes into administration the assets are sold to pay out those who hold equity in the company. They're literally owed debt.

This is incorrect. Please see the differences between equity and debt. [1]

[1] http://smallbusiness.findlaw.com/business-finances/debt-vs-e...
Or the Wotton hypothesis: "An ambassador is an honest gentleman sent to lie abroad for the good of his country."
So it's stored on a public cloud?
I've been taking a circuitous route with a side project: first just building an open source command-line tool that scratches my own itch, and then evaluating traction from there. If companies find the tool useful, I've been keeping in mind ways to build out a SaaS/enterprise version. Or if it doesn't get much traction, worst-case at least I have something that's useful to me!

The tool is called Skeema [1] and it allows you to manage relational database schemas as code -- a bridge between git (or hg, svn, etc) and SQL DDL. You can use it to export CREATE TABLE statements from a DB to a repo, and then auto-generate and run DDL based on changes to that repo. Currently it just targets MySQL (due to personal familiarity, and the historic complexity with schema changes there), but if it's successful I could envision porting it to other DBs.

The open source CLI is still in alpha, but getting very close to a first release candidate. I've spent 9 months of working 5 to 25 hours/week on it so far.

Some unexpected challenges:

* Even for entirely text-based command-line tools, building a nice polished interface takes a lot of time! My goal has been to make Skeema's CLI paradigms immediately intuitive to users of Git and MySQL, in terms of option-handling, subcommands, and config file format. Even little things like exit code values, and STDOUT vs STDERR for different types of output, matter a lot for building CLIs that are friendly to pipelines.

* None of the existing Golang CLI/config packages were the right fit. After a couple attempts at hacking/forking popular ones resulted in overly-awkward code, I scrapped all that and wrote my own. I should have done that from the start, but it felt like yak-shaving.

* I eschewed unit testing at first, going with the common side-project wisdom of only prioritizing functionality. But as the codebase grew, I really wished I had spent more time writing tests from the start. I suspect it would have been a net time-saver vs the manual ad hoc testing I was doing initially.

[1] http://github.com/skeema
New MacBook Pros Fail to Earn Consumer Reports Recommendation
That's not an explanation, that's literally just the author saying "no, no, no, no".
comment says "metaphoric" debt. Surely you can agree that the principals of a company owe (in the sense of being socially obligated) a debt of thanks and gratitude to investors for taking a risk on them in the first place?
Or their home page.
They could each be reacting "correctly" since they might have very different outcomes. Still not an excuse for dismissing those people as crazy, but you don't have to be afraid for yourself to be not-crazy.
They've really de-emphasized this story over the last two years, though. You used to hear that they were a "logistics company," but they sure haven't been banging that drum, lately.

Perhaps because it was always ludicrous. Uber's underlying technology is not complicated, it's not hard to build an app that connects buyers to drivers -- they have no durable competitive advantage there. They do have large network of drivers that they could potentially tap into, but those drivers are driving smallish sedans, not delivery trucks. They aren't necessarily super keen on double parking, getting out, and doing deliveries. They are probably 1/10th as efficient as a traditional UPS or Fedex driver in terms of cost per package delivered. Now, could that excess capacity still soak up a little additional money? Sure. If Uber needed to bump up their profit margins by 1-2%, there might be a viable play in adding package delivery. But increasing their profit margins by 20-80%? Hahaha no.

If Amazon ever really needs to have a distributed driver network, they'll clone the Uber app and set the whole thing up themselves, not work to prop up Uber's absurd market cap by overpaying for delivery. I know that Amazon has looked into this -- I think they've just decided that there's no money there. If there's no money in this for Amazon, why would we imagine there is money in this for anyone else?
Plenty of systems can and do evolve their community forward with it. The sentiment of backwards compatibility at all costs is the same that leads you down the road of having to support IE 7. No one is saying play fast and loose with core functionality, but do it responsibly and with community input.

That "about 100 plugins are supposed to be used together" is indicative of bad design to me.

They really should be taking a look at modern systems like Concourse CI to see what they can do to improve.
>I remember that day vividly, I was in jr. high school. It's hard to describe how traumatic it was; the school teacher on board made it ten times worse. I would compare it to 9/11 for those that aren't old enough to remember.

It's interesting (albeit depressing) to think about how every generation in the television (and now internet) age seems to have at least one of these events that occurs right on the border of adulthood; when you've become old enough to have a sense of the world and the personal impact of the event kind of jolts you into reality, so to speak. For my dad it was JFK's assassination and for me it was 9/11.

It's also notable that when Columbia disintegrated upon re-entry in 2003 the media and public at large didn't seem to pay it much attention at all (or at least I don't remember it being such a big deal).