TL;DR: A plurality of Tor users are from Western countries with arguably decent judicial frameworks. Those that have life-or-death consequences to network anonymity will need a lot, lot more than the Tor Browser Bundle or Tor itself.

> If their location and they get it with the equivalent of their local government's "search warrant", it's more likely a raid, interrogation, threats, harassment, censorship, and possibly torture and death.

This is not who is primarily using Tor. 1/5 directly connecting users of Tor are in the United States. See:

https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-relay-table.html

This doesn't change even for bridge users:

https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-bridge-table.html

So, the majority of Tor users are in places I think we'd consider have somewhat working judiciary frameworks. And I'm highly skeptical of even the American judiciary framework, if you read some of my past posts.

You are correct, my original threat model was those Tor users and their use cases; if they are in FVEY territory they are probably already lost as Tor does not protect against "passive global adversaries" that FVEY IC has proven to be and may be able to be probabilistically deanonymized as was shown in the Snowden slides. [1]

Yes, I admit I should have been thinking more deeply, and my original advice isn't good enough. I have a tendency to not think things through fully before posting here, and then I edit/evolve my thoughts as time goes on, as one does in a verbal discussion.

Like you stated, clearly there are situations in which users rely on Tor for more than simple anonymity. They are already misguided in using the Tor Browser Bundle for this purpose. Use Qubes or Whonix on dedicated hardware, follow the grugq's "Opsec for Hackers" [1]. If the threat of information is torture and death, Tor alone is not going to save you from your adversary. Your threat model requires a hell of a lot more precautions than anonymity over the wire. You need to assume your tools are compromised and defend in depth as much as possible to make yourself a lot, lot harder to track.

If you are using Tor Browser Bundle on Windows, you fucked up already. If you are only using Tor Browser Bundle, you fucked up too. If you are using Tor on your home connection, nope. If your device leaks identifying information to your access points (MAC addresses, hostnames), negative. If you are not using FDE on the device when they come for you, you are toast, etc etc.

If your adversary is a powerful nation state or an organization with the ability to purchase exploits to use against you and they are willing to fuck you up physically, you have a big problem and you need bigger solutions. No anonymity project will be enough. You need to frustrate your adversary as much as possible and realize that your security comes from making you very expensive to track down, and hope they don't care enough. You are playing the game where you are angering the bear and attempting to be faster than the other guy, so that the other guy who didn't care as much is the one that is eaten.

If they do care enough to come for you, and they have the resources to break a lot of layers to get to you, and you do not have any meatspace power to fight or flee, you are highly unlikely to win.

If that's the "whole different ball game" you are playing and are just using TBB, you will lose. If your adversary is that strong or you have your life to lose, and you are likely being targeted, it is clear at this point that Tor Browser Bundle should be considered harmful without a better strategy of defense in depth.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/oct/04/to...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XaYdCdwiWU