skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
In the study the author linked to, it says that the recidivism rate for sex offenders is 5.3% -- lower than most of the other rates that the author mentions. He simply uses the "only 5 percent of new sex offenses..." statistic to make a point, and view the data from another angle. There's nothing misleading about it, and the author didn't misinterpret the data. Coincidentally, the numbers happen to be similar.

When you say "It's obviously true that "those who commit sex crimes are more likely to reoffend" than the average citizen." to point out the author's logical "mistake," I believe you might be misunderstanding the data as well.

You have some number of sex offenses, SO, and some population P, that contains some number of sex offenders, P_O.
.053 x P_O = sex offenders who reoffend

SO x .05 = Sex offenses caused by reoffenders

SO x .95 = Some subset of the general population, P, that commits a sex offense.

Only if .95SO = .053P does the rate of reoffense by sex offenders equal the rate of sex offense by the general population, which requires a LOT more information to decide, and is probably not true.

Note: I'm making some simplifications like "people commit one offense at a time, then are prosecuted", "the only people who have committed two offenses are reoffenders" but if you know a better way to think about this, I'm all ears.
Regarding (a) - do you know that I've never been told why I need to finish my antibiotics? For some reason (arrogance?) doctors don't explain their reasoning in many cases (I live in Canada FWIW.)

If I was told "hey, you need to finish your antibiotics or you'll risk becoming immune to them, potentially putting yourself or your family, colleagues, or friends at risk" I don't think even the dumbest person would ignore that warning. Then they could even explain WHY that is, if the patient was curious.

Instead, here in Canada, you say you're sick, the doctor will likely immediately perscribe antibiotics, then shuffle you out the door in less than 5 minutes.
> It turns out that many (most?) people prefer to live a more expensive lifestyle which requires more hours of work.

I don't know that this is quite true. I have asked many employers for fewer hours and more vacation time in exchange for less money. I am always refused. I am frequently offered more money but never more vacation time.

I work as a contractor now, but even now my main client is begging me for more hours. The only people I've seen who successfully negotiate for fewer hours are those so vital to the business that they'd rather have that part time employee than no employee at all.

Mind you that's anecdotes and all that.

> One consequence of this is that, since the number of people who prefer this is large enough that they've established a norm in many industries which makes it harder to find an employer willing to hire a worker that's going to put in fewer hours.

I actually see it as the ones with the power get to write the rules, and make things seem normal. Even if I'd prefer to work fewer hours, I still need some money to survive, and can't quite go jobless.
> The downside is that you need to do this every day, and you need to bookmark this link.

This sounds like something that could easily be automated with a script and a cron job.
One cool thing about learning Latin in high school was reading books from two-thousand years ago. Take Ovid's Ars Amatoria for example. He was the original PUA (from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ars_Amatoria): "The first two books, aimed at men, contain sections which cover such topics as 'not forgetting her birthday', 'letting her miss you - but not for long' and 'not asking about her age'."
"given that empathy is wired into our cerebrum" is not a universally true statement. What about sociopaths?
There is an argument going on in the VC world right now about how to properly structure employee compensation.

There is a side arguing for the status-quo and another side arguing for a change given the new-norm of long-delayed IPO/liquidity events.

I see where you're coming from, but the world isn't black-and-white and everyone with money isn't Art Carnegie hiring the Pinkertons. It's convenient to paint the VC industry in simplistic terms but it doesn't paint an accurate picture.
Legalized kidnapping and extortion. Unbelievable!
Previously (and today), on bumping base model memory from 16GB to 32GB - would cost Apple bit more per unit ($10 to manufacturing cost in 2014). I think with the price of NAND flash memory drifting downwards, its a good move considering the profit margins.
True, but you receive a two minute warning. Your app should be performing frequent checkpointing, and be ready to wrap up its work in two minutes. That's plenty of time for most workloads to end gracefully and notify your command and control.

https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/new-ec2-spot-instance-termi...
Let's say California wants to secede.

Do you really think the government will part calmly with its largest economy?
Japan's stint as an imperial power in Korea has left a large impact in the overall culture there
Why is this dead? This is relevant information directly from the source. Isn't this the kind of information that should be on the front page?
H. L. Mencken also wrote: “As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
I'm not sure what argument you are making, you seem to be missing the point of the article.

You seem to be saying a work-free world is not technically feasible without reducing economic output. I think if such a world is possible, it is quite far off and dependent on numerous advances in robotics and AI.

However, the article is not trying to say such a world is feasible, but trying to make an argument about whether we should be imparting a value to work besides the economic value that work creates. (I.E. should we value work because it is necessary to provide purpose and happiness).
If they run the ISPs or can give them orders, they can tell them to null route particular IP addresses -- not properly deliver the traffic to those addresses. By watching the traffic coming out of a mobile device when it's using a particular service, they can easily make a pretty decent list of some of the IP addresses of the servers of that service.

Another possibility is making the ISP's own DNS resolvers refuse to resolve the service's domain name, or making it resolve to something else. Or (at a higher level of sophistication) inspecting DNS queries and blocking those that are related to that service. This is a higher level of sophistication because it is deep packet inspection rather than simply tampering with routing tables or the ISP's own DNS services.

Those are the big ones, and the ways around them are generally proxies, tunnels, and VPNs to get other computers and services that the government isn't yet aware of (or isn't willing to block) to forward the traffic in some way.

Edit: for example, suppose people are using ExampleChat and the government doesn't like that. It can look at the data traffic coming out of a phone running ExampleChat and see that it first looks up chatapi.example.com and that this resolves to 192.0.2.40. Then the phone makes a TCP connection to, say, port 443 of 192.0.2.40. The government-run ISP, or ISPs following government orders, might then start dropping IP traffic to or from 192.0.2.40, or giving wrong results from its own DNS resolver for queries for chatapi.example.com. If they have DPI equipment that is able to look at the content of packets, it could also include searching for "chatapi.example.com" in outbound DNS queries to other nameservers, and dropping those packets or immediately spoofing invalid responses.

This would be pretty effective against ExampleChat because the app simply can't work if it can't talk to the server. If the company rolls out a new version that uses a new name and address, the government could notice the change and block the new one too.
Nobody is insulting your intelligence.
I meant create a new, virtual universe that is more complex (i.e. contains more information) than this one.
People might just work on activities they like (e.g: the maker movement, open source, art).
One can only assume, but PG is a big supporter of Hillary, and so is @dang.
One fact of life is pretty much everything benefits the rich more than the poor
All of the threads were flagged fairly soon after they were initially posted.
Great catch. I should have said "why he isn't recommending prosecution"
Swiss workers are among the most productive on earth and they work fewer hours than most of the OECD. Coincidence? In many fields, (software, hello!) the number of hours worked does not necessarily translate into more profit.
Not sure if I am one the of "bored" ones yet. We have an interesting project at hand with Hadoop but my work just laid off the entire team around me that I was leading. It sure killed any belief I had in the company. I seem to be bored due to not believing in the company.

Great read though! I've been thinking lately how everyone has a bank of energy (morale, drive, enthusiasm, etc) for each job they take. Things like layoffs can use up big chunks of that energy each employee has for the company.
My mistake - I had developed the impression that Lenovo was informed ahead of time. I had only skimmed at first.

I had thought the complaint was about not waiting until what sounds like most of the PC OEMs stopped sitting on their thumbs. Please disregard that part of my response.
DNA absolutely hangs on to useless genotypes for some period of time. Horizontal gene transfer allows for redundant genes to exist. They have increased mutation which MIGHT lead to some productive change, but for an extended period of time they don't. Not to mention biological mechanism which exist for many many generations even though they aren't used in some grow medium. The disagreement here is about time scale.

If it were true that resistant phenotypes often ARE dramatically less fit to the degree you imply we could simply stop taking Antibiotics and everything would revert back to it Susceptible state.

When you stop a dosage early you've very likely applying a low dosage to some subpopluation. Dosages are not linear, nor evenly applied throughout the entire population of bacteria in a human body.
I wouldn't defend the TSA. They have abysmal performance, but they are a small fraction of the country. My point is that most people being employed are not loafers. In addition, taxpayers that fund the federal government are generally the upper half of income earners. The poor really don't pay that much in taxes.
> Why aren't we seeing more suicide there?

East Asia has one major cultural difference with the West that's relevant in this case. Status is taken to an extreme i.e. your job, your education, your clothes, your car, your lodgings, ...

In other words, "you are your clothes, your bank account, ...". When you don't have those things in East Asia, you're not that far from a homeless person in terms of status.
Common sense doesn't work to gather actual data
Complexion Reduction: A New Trend in Mobile Design
There actually is a solution: employing them or incentivizing the employment of them.
The gummint, and anyone well enough connected, already knows my finances down to the last red cent.

Can't say I know theirs.
BitTorrent Protocol Turns 15 Years Old Today
> Does anyone really want to fight that? The answer is probably No.

You won't be fighting the US military. Many of them will join with you. They are people, not killing machines. They are your neighbors and the sons and daughters of your neighbors. They will not fire on their countrymen because a politician told them to.

The men and women in our military swore to uphold the constitution. They did not swear to be the thugs for a group of elites who got elected only through virtue of millions upon millions of dollars of campaign contributions from organizations that do not have the best interest of this nation as their goal.
"The fact that we call it work/life balance automatically implies that one of the two is negative..."

2nd paragraph and already a made up claim. Saying "work/life" does not imply that one is good and the other bad. It just says that these are 2 different concerns to be balanced.
Can the government compel me to make false statements ?

In what scenario would the government need to compel you to make false statements?

The law is already that if you receive a NSL, then you are not allowed to divulge that you've received one. If you do, then you may be prosecuted for breaking the law.

In the scenario involving warrant canaries, the only difference between just outright saying you've received an NSL vs removing the canary is the reliance on some 'technical workaround' where the removal of information is not considered speech and/or doesn't divulge the information.

The judge is not going to tell you that you have to lie to keep the information up. But they may tell you that if you break the law, by divulging (through whatever means) that you have received an NSL, that you will receive the appropriate punishment.
Heroku National Park Name Generator
>From what I saw, government contracting requires all requirements up front.

Strictly speaking the government has loads of flexibility at defining exactly what form contracts should take. It's just that in reality, most people who decide on the form of government contracts rarely have the skills required to imagine doing things better. Furthermore they have very little incentive to do so. So the least risky and the simplest option is to "do what didn't work last time". After all, everyone involved (on the government side) will continue receiving paychecks no matter what, so why bother?

Also, if you think about it - if you are a median government worker who lacks the skills required to actually perform the task for which you are writing/monitoring the contract - what is the probability that you will do a good job getting results on the taxpayer money you are spending?

In the big picture, the taxpayers must employ the most skilled and talented people available to imagine/design/oversee technical solutions acquired by the government if they want any to see value delivered for outgoing tax dollars. This constraint is completely incompatible with the existing civil service personnel policies.
because it doesn't like wget
I stand corrected -- Matamoros seems to be a dude who peed on a car once. I do not think that is what the registry is for.

I still think that allowing for repeated public genital exposure is probably a slippery slope.

I've read previously that nearly every case of this is not prosecuted until exposure has been repeated.
Anyone have insight as to why Snapchat is blocked in China but Snow isn't? Is Snow just currently under the radar and will likely suffer the same fate?
Microservices Essentials for Execs: The Key to High Velocity Software Dev
Bad frameworks and/or bad usage. Ie, a lot of frameworks don't have good/any serverside support. React does, fwiw.

From my perspective, a good React site is rendered on the server in most scenarios. Meaning the first page you get is pure html and 100% complete. The JS will load and link everything up, but it's nothing that you'll know. If you click a link before the js loads, it should point to a real url and give you full html again. When the js does finally load, json can be used to load new pages, modifying the content with react, etc.

This is also nice because web crawlers (all of them) get simple html, and if a user has JS turned off, they still a lot of your content, perhaps missing some of your UX.

I've implemented a couple content heavy sites like this and it's a nice UX. Performs just as you expect in most scenarios. The only complaint i think that could be valid, is that there is, indeed, a fair amount of JS, which on mobile devices is definitely worse off than if it were just static content.

This is my benchmark for frontend frameworks for the future. Can i compile it, efficiently, on the server before giving it to the user?
Whatever our discussions on automation lead to, I hope we can consider the fragility angle. I'm with you on #1, but it seems to me that automation encourages too much dependency on the technology because of human nature. If there was some catastrophe and the populace was deprived of technology, I fear that most would be utterly helpless and endangered.

I understand that the best person to take charge of the average individual is themselves, and ultimately one's continued survival is their responsibility. That said, life is pretty sublime for most people where I live and most of the time all needs are met - so survival ranks low on the priorities list. Perhaps the responsible thing to do would be to make it a part of a standard education to teach low-tech survival skills. Boy Scouts was the closest thing I had to this kind of training as a kid, and I still hang on to my boy scout manual if I need knowledge in an emergency.

I try to buy food and manufactured goods made at the local level wherever possible to increase the chances that essentials can be provided if my area were to ever be cutoff from outside support for a long period.
> This memo neatly glosses over where the productivity gains in the last 100 years have gone, and makes it seem as if it's fair for wages of the American worker to stagnate while the megawealthy get all the profit. If a worker in 2016 can build a car in a-fourth the time it took a worker in 1935 to build a car, why is it implausible for them to work 35 hours a week with better benefits and more vacation time?

Because you are both comparing oranges to oranges.

France's problem (frankly) is their labor protections are too strong.

America's problem (frankly) is their labor protections are too weak.

The parallels to be drawn here are not what you or the OP would like them to be.

The standard of living since 1916 has improved substantially and maintaining a modern level of living is expensive.

If I want to live like a college student (2 to a room, no car, and only food I prepare myself) I could be retired in my late 30s. I don't live that way and that costs something.

http://www.pbs.org/livelyhood/workday/weekend/timeline.html

Similarly, the gains from 1916 -> now are mostly in things we take for granted. The 40 hour work week (it used to be 60 then it became 48 and then 40), the access to quality medical care wasn't common, people lived two to a room in smaller homes, people didn't have the mobility of a car but relied on their own muscles, etc.

A good 50% of the productivity gains over the last 100 years went to moving things from 60 hour work weeks to 40. Modern conveniences represent the other half.

The reality is we got screwed in the 1980s -> 2016 in the US but that is a separate problem and conflating the two doesn't help anyone. Labor needs to start acting like its the 1920s again and get organized and push back politically.
Analyzing email account to try and predict/find signs of brain disease.

~adsense clone, crawl page, find top keywords, and for each advertiser (which has a catalog of up to 5M products) find best product and display as ad in a widget.

~smart ~ai in a complex game of pong (powerups, multiple balls with different speeds, dynamic net size, special abilites). it was a very complex if-else-if tree, but I was in 7th grade learning by myself with no home internet-connection
> IF we all switch to bitcoin and government can't keep track of the money, big criminals, bit corps will never pay any taxes [...]

The biggest companies do not pay much taxes already; while I get your point, I consider it invalid until everyone who is doing legal business is paying taxes. The mafia will never pay taxes on illegal business, but it is irrelevant as long as big corporations can get around paying taxes by constructing legal international constructs.

> Privacy is important but either we have to find a way to change the economy as it is, or regulate BTC properly.

So let's go for the easy thing and regulate BTC even though it promises the smallest of all gains for society? Can you point me to any reports about BTC being used for terrorism? If there are any, do they really warrant a regulation?

> Just because someone has a fetish and wants to keep it "anonymous" is not enough for me.

Tell that to gay people in societies in which they face, at best, discrimination or, at worst, prison or death penalty.

Just because you don't have anything to be concerned about yourself right now, does not mean you should devalue privacy and anonymity for others: You can still be the next deviant who is hunted down. Or how Niemoeller put it:

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
its tricky to do what they do with the limits they have on resources..they had tried to get me on board in 2010 as android dev..but I bailed after determining that they would just not come close to the resources to actually pull it off with a level high quality needed....mobile OSes are harder to fork than desktop OSes
static hosting is hard
Not good at metaphorical sarcasm, eh? Special forces not using guns because they sometimes need hackers make as much sense as web developers not using CSS because they sometimes need Javascript-based layout.
We think it's a good idea too ;) Machines and humans truly have different talents: machines are great at memory, keeping track of state, distributing information while people are great at understanding subtle nuance in natural language.
The really frustrating thing about all this is that DHL used to be the good company. The one where you could rely on the delivery. It changed abruptly for me. There was one good delivery and then the problems started and never ended. I even considered getting one of those Pack Station accounts. Good that I didn't. The experience colleagues had from this was shocking. Wrong packages, missing packages, messy support and recently that hack. Horrible.

I live in a big Germany city, so I hope that drone delivery hype becomes a thing one day.
What would you do?
Sorry the post was long that I have had to put it on the following link: http://pastebin.com/8c0DMzg6

I am having a bad time at work at the moment and would love anyone who works in software development to have a look at the link and offer any advise they can.

Thanks for you time.