A very interesting point. I wonder what was the flaw in the reasoning. It certainly seems unlikely that a major war would occur between the US and China. I believe this today: that it would just be so incredibly bad for business that it's an unlikely practical outcome.

Has the nature of international relations changed, or have we just gotten lucky? Certainly I think the international (and many-national) perspective on human rights and the rights of persons has evolved since then. A draft of soldiers would be perceived quite extremely in the modern day, and would face staunch and inexorable political pressure except in the face of something like total war. Furthermore, globalization has increased substantially since then. A total war with a breakdown of international trade could quickly result in famine in many areas of the world.

It seems more likely that modern warfare will occur through complex and subtle means like economic and financial sabotage (like the measures that have been used against Iran). Arguably this is going on between the US and China in some ways today, with the weakening of China's stock market, the recent US bans on Chinese products, and requirements imposed on foreign companies by China. However, to all the degree that they're add odds with each other, I fundamentally get the impression that US and China are too rational and self-interested to reach armed conflict with each other.

It's also interesting to consider how culture may have shifted over time. 60 years ago, the population might have had one particular perception about going to war with "the japs" (and Asian ethnic slurs). In the modern day, demonizing Asia feels somehow dated, and it's popular to demonize the Arab world instead. I don't know if this is underlying truth or just media spin, but even though there are significant ideological differences in some way (e.g., freedom of speech), it doesn't seem like USA or other conventionally western countries are somehow "at odds with" Asia, even though from a financial perspective that's far more the case than most parts of the world that area in the media a lot more. I suppose it relates to people chanting "death to the USA" and exploding bombs and things like that. Perhaps also it relates to the fact that there's been far less imperialism from the USA directed toward China and similar territories than toward other areas of the world. Who knows.

Wikipedia has something interesting to say about this: "The partnership between China and the United States, where each nation regards each other as a potential adversary as well as a strategic partner, has been described by world leaders and academicians as the world's most important bilateral relationship of the century. As of 2014, the United States has the world's largest economy and China the second largest. [...] China remains the largest foreign creditor of the United States,[4] holding about 10% ($1.8 trillion) of the U.S. national debt."

"China–United States relations have generally been stable with some periods of open conflict, most notably during the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Currently, China and the United States have mutual political, economic, and security interests, including, but not limited to, the prevention of terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons, although there are unresolved concerns relating to the role of democracy in government in China and human rights in both respective countries" - so, the things that we have a stake in are unlikely to lead us to war. The USA is not going to go to war with China over its civil rights issues.

"The two countries remain in dispute over territorial issues in the South China Sea. At the annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue in 2014, both countries confirmed that they wanted to improve their relationship. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stated that the United States did not seek to contain China,[5] while Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that a confrontation between the two countries would be a disaster." - also unlikely to lead to war. It helps that both countries are essentially atheist states.

The most likely way that USA and China get drawn into war is through some kind of proxy situation with allies that they get drawn into. However, they are so much more powerful than their allied nations that I suspect each party enforces detente. All of this said, it seems plausible that there are tensions brewing on the horizon, with China having 1.3 billion people and USA 320 million. Human capital is an extremely valuable resource. Perhaps we are just fortunate to be in a calm period of history during recent times.