Rumpel
Wise thinking.

I think you have a couple of issues you need to bear in mind.
The world is fundamentally broken. And most models you will read about were built for a different world.

I suggested you read John Mauldin (a lot) his newsletter is at http://www.johnmauldin.com/outside_the_box.html
You need to now learn and understand about finance, what is wrong with the models and how to read the global environment. As an HNer you shd be able to do this. (You, for example, need to think about the liquidity you need)

So rather than looking at a model, build up a picture of the world.

That picture might probably be:
* 10-15 yrs of misery in the US with choppy equity markets and an ever weaker dollar. Assume a deflation type scenario
* Growth in China & Brazil but the danger of overeating
* Climate change play: climate change play is clearly a good 20-30yr trend but there is reason to believe that with the PDO we will see global temperature anomalies drop for then next 10-12 yrs, so over that time frame there may be a contrarian play
* Gold may be valuable but only to a point
* And will successive US governments try to eviscerate the dollar, there isn;t much choice for other central bankers but to hold the dollar
* Sovreign debt in Europe looks risky.

With $5m you should aim for around 20-25 individual positions. Much of this can be done via ETFs with the right degree of portfolio balancing, and there are several services (which I can't vouch for) like alphaclone, which will help you do this.

I would absolutely not follow the traditional route of the bulk of your assets follow US stock indicies--that worked in the post-baby boom years, don't think it would work now.

However, I wouldn't understate the value of being able to get into a really good macro-oriented or special situations hedge fund. John Paulson's funds are a great example of this. They have returned 16-17% pretty consistently with a few bad years for 20 yrs or so. Allocating $500k into something like that is probably not a bad idea.

It is abosolutely worth you find a good financial advisor (Sanford Bernstein or similiar) and put some of your assets with them to get access to their research & network. Your test should be: can they get me into a few reliable hedge funds, etc and do I get extra benefits. Yes: you pay 2% to get into a hedge fund, but if you get into a half decent one, you'll add a lot to your portfolio.

In your position, my book would look like this:
$1.5 - $2m into a variety of hedge funds and / or private equity positions (at least 7-8 very reputable ones
$2m into a variety of ETFs ensuring you have good coverage of BRIC and non-US markets
$1m in liquids (USD, NOK, other strong currencies)

You should plan to spend at least 1.5 days a month reviewing your portfolio, some of which will be daily reading of good business websites (NOT MARKETWATCH! or CRAMER). Plan on rebalancing no more than half-of your positions a quarted, any more than that and the markets are nuts or you have a trigger finger.

Because ETFs are liquid you can get in and out when you like, with some price risk. So if you need to hire a private jet and take your friends to Ibiza, you can.

Above all: trust no-one. Equip yourself to make your own decisions.