1. But my belief in social security has zero impact on whether I will actually have social security. Which is why I asked in my question if I need prognostication skills in order to plan my retirement. That would seem to be an unreal expectation - that I can accurately predict whether or not I will have social security available to me, at which age, and with what payouts. I would need to predict multiple federal elections, would I not?

We're not discussing that I must also predict inflation, health care costs (or socialization), and the likelihood of various markets crashing or exploding... including housing or renting...

2. That's not a REAL question. The real question there is, can we come up with ways to save more now, while maintaining my current comfort at adequate levels, with an expectation of future happiness? Because OF COURSE I'd like to have X + Y. The ways to try to achieve that are to save more, or risk more. BUT, you're asking me to establish my risk level, given my GOAL of reward. That's like starting by asking me how much money I want to win in Vegas as the first question. The FIRST question!

3. Again, those are not real questions. The closest to a real question there is, do I want my percentage of pleasurable spending to increase or decrease, relative to my current spending. Sure, I can TRY to consider the things you've brought up - but again, as I complained, I would need prognostication skills to come up with remotely accurate answers to any one of those questions, let alone a slew of them.

4. Okay, I'll pay for my daughter's education 100%. Can you tell me how much that will cost? Oh, you need to know what school she's going to? Well, hmm, I can try to estimate her SAT scores, but she's currently in DAY CARE. Again, this is not a real question. I would need prognostication skills to know whether college costs will quadruple, in CONSTANT DOLLARS, or maybe college will be socialized and my daughter will get a STIPEND!

I don't mean to sound arrogant, insulting, and condescending. I really don't. Sorry. Sincerely, sorry.

But I reject the premise of why you're asking the questions. "How much will you spend on socks?" "How much will you spend on hats?" ... "Okay, let's sum all those things up! TADA, you'd need to make twice as much as you currently make, and save 100% of it to achieve that goal!"

The first rule of data is to know how it's going to be used. Yes?

I do not believe you have a formula, where you can punch in my answers to your questions, and then achieve a measurably correct confidence level in my future, self-reported happiness with the outcome.

Since you don't have that formula, why are we gathering individual numbers that we will pretend to plug into it?

And yes, they're all great things to consider. But I do not believe you that considering each of them carefully will allow me to come up with a plan that is remotely likely to succeed. "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -Mike Tyson

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Instead, I think it makes much more sense to look at the past. Let me filter huge amounts of data, by my known demographics... And see the histogram of self-reported happiness, for people who had given amounts of wealth at retirement.

1. $X of income at Y age

2. Spouse at retirement or not

3. X kids, at Y age

4. Retire at age X

5. Live and retire in the Mid-West...

Allow me to see confidence intervals. High and low graphs, based on recessions or booms... Constant dollars only, please.

I mean, isn't AARP capable of collecting this data, and distributing it in meaningful ways to pre-retirement people?!?

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And again, really, honestly - the three biggest things that are going to affect my retirement, in rough order are:

1. Life expectancy for me and spouse (My grandfather died before reaching retirement. My great-grandmother died at 101y 6m.)

2. The economy

3. Percentage rate of our saving, relative to our income

To really predict 1 and 2, I would need to be a legislative-prognosticating actuarial economist. And 3 is going to be determined by me, limiting my current happiness, with the hope of future happiness.