skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I believe the Vimeo feeds iTunes would need only offers .swf files. I tried http://vimeo.com/channels/fulldisclojure/videos/rss and http://vimeo.com/user2842266/videos/rss with no success.

Do you have somepleace to serve the .mov files? Are they QT Animation?
Death of traditional news industry.
Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp.

That'll be a watershed moment: the politics of information are going to start being the kind of core liberal issue that environmental issues currently are.
> Which you were, because you were attacking downvoters personally instead of their use of the downvote system.

Fair enough.

> I see; I thought you were offering an exhaustive list rather than the beginnings of a list.

Perhaps I should have followed with some ellipses "..."

> Can you back that up with anything? What 'consequences' should there be to downvoting things you don't want to see on a site built to be shaped by the voting of people who are present?

The suppression of dissenting and contradictory voices.

A comment like "downvoted because I disagree with your point about ..." creates value by focusing discussion on a particular area of interest. While just a downvote supplies nothing meaningful to the discussion and merely seeks to suppress some viewpoint in the most general sense.

A definition of discussion is "an exchange of views on some topic", suppressing alternate viewpoints does not lend itself to creating discussion.
Ah, such a nerd.

Everybody and their brother celebrated the turn of the century in the year 2000, and everybody agrees on this being a new decade except for the nerds. ;)

I forgot to include that Directed Edge will have a turnover bigger than Google by 2011, sorry :)
I predict (and hope for) a major turn back to simplicity in technologies. Multimillion-line software will go extinct like dinosaurs. Existing programming languages and platforms will gradually be replaced with ones so simple and elegant that one software component will be written and maintained by one to three developers and art designers and not a whole software company packed with managers and other unnecessary staff. Oh, and managers along with poeple who "understand" "software business" but not software will hopefully go extinct too.
I don't have the data to respond to this entire paper, especially on big stuff like GDP ratios, etc, but an important part of their argument stuck out as shaky to me.

The paper argues that China's urbanization rate is already much higher than is commonly believed, due to China's definition of an urban centers. It notes that Houston or Brisbane would not be counted as cities, due to low population density. But, as a Chinese resident, I don't find it unreasonable at all that Houston wouldn't be counted as a city here - Houston, w/ a population of 2.2m and a density of 1375 people / square kilometer, is dwarfed when you compare it to a dense city of 11+ million like Tianjin, which is considered a bit of a hick town here in Beijing.

It seems unreasonable to use American standards for the definition of a city when China's population to usable land ratio is much higher than is frequently encountered in the West.
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This one is meta, but I think it will happen:

HN will split.
White Space your Workspace
hmm, traditional news industry? what's that ? :)
I use ssh on a non-standard port, not for security, but to avoid all the annoying attempts in the logs.

I use ssh keys only. I've disabled the use of passwords for any account other than root on the console, and for that, I use a very long random password which is stored very carefully, encrypted with a long passphrase. This is only needed in emergencies.

Be careful to protect your ssh keys (long passphrases and ssh-agent), and it's probably a good idea to use hashes in your known_hosts file rather than addresses so malware can't find all the hosts you can access.
Hopefully network analysis/data mining laws/politics will be handled with a little less FUD, a little less grandstanding, and a little more efficiency than we're seeing with climate change politics...
I love to hear stories about programming on those early computers.

Of course, similar functionality is built into most, if not all, modern operating systems. On Mac OS X it is very efficient with memory and maintains the memory of closed programs such that if you hit ⌘ + Q to terminate the process and then you relaunch the program it usually starts up almost instantly.
I upvoted you because I HOPE you're right, not because I think you are right. Managers are like cockroaches... after the nuclear apocalypse they'll be the only ones running around... trying to find underpaid teenaged business analysts to write 86-page requirements documents to give to developers whose time is clearly too valuable to waste understanding business processes.
Very good point, and quite illustrative. Same thing with cars; normal people rarely buy cars based on pure performance metrics.
You might have a point if the discussion mentioned the "second decade of the twenty-first century." A contiguous ten year period is a decade. Decades start and end all of the time without requiring nerd approval.
Exactly, there's another form of it also that I find equally off putting, .eg. "well every boolean algebra must be isomorphic to a field of sets because Marshall Stone thinks so.....". In this case it's true but the argument is hardly convincing.
Personally, I think the more wealth and brains we have in the country the better, but $100K seems cheap enough to invite lots of shady cases.

I could start the "Visa Arbitrage Angel Fund" that only makes $100K investments into startups with $20K+ in the bank, then require the startup buy me out one week after closing for $120K (or make monthly payments of $10K for a year, or some other wacky clause that makes my investment an awful loan instead of a real investment). Now we've invented a way for foreigners with $20K to buy a visa.

The proposed program would make more visas available to
entrepreneurs who have at least $250,000 in funding from a
U.S.-based venture capital firm, or $100,000 in angel funding.
How to write a great blog comment
Yeah, my setup was already pretty secure; and I ended up just switching to a non-standard port for cleaner logs.

But since then I haven't spotted a single brute-force attempt on any of my boxes...
yes, typical bullshit article.
It's like the old Star Trek joke:

Kirk: Mr. Spock, how many ways are there to die on this planet?

Spock: 3 Captain

Kirk: Very good, let's bring 3 guys in red shirts down to the planet with us.
Too right! In reality, our ability to read co-evolves with finding cool stuff to read.

We learn to read not by memorising the letters, constructing syllables, then words, etc -- but by discovering, for example, Harry Potter.
Alpha, Beta, GA and other useless labels
You view breeding an animal to have certain traits and then selling it for personal profit more moral than dissecting a frog to help children understand more about life?

Disgusting in my opinion. You are clearly willing to put a price on life (selling the animal) but you care whether the animal stays alive or not?

The "You" refers the the animal right activists who are happy with this solution. Also to the "breeders"
gpu/cpu unification has to happen some time in the next 10 years (in the 2010 thread i argue against it being next year, but it's inevitable at some point). the next amd architecture is a step in that direction.

edit: also, please, please, ultralight laptops with e-ink screens.

edit2: to clarify the above, cpus are currently tending towards more cores, while gpus are tending towards larger caches. both are trying to extend their area of application into tasks performed by the other, in the hope of more speed over a wider range of applications.
I did glance through the rest of his blog, the only highlight was a remark "I'm ----ed if I go deaf".

(this blog ate up the four stars in the quote above)
I have a hard time believing this, as it isn't just US air travel which is hit by the stupidity. All over the world we are suffering from this and I can't see the air industry taking to being a sacrificial cow, without protesting about it.
In addition I'd say most of the hacker crowd would migrate to the other non-yc site, which promises a more hacker oriented diet while banishing everything else with an iron fist.
Interesting idea, but won't this allow wealthy foreigners to buy their way into the States?

how is that different from:

The current system grants 10,000 visas each year primarily to investors that have financed over $1 million with plans to create at least 10 full-time positions.

except it would allow for more relaxed terms?
I'm seeing it for the first time and looks nice. I wish I could have it on my command-line though. Is that too complicated.

There was no download, so I'm assuming its something hosted.
Think that will lead to real-time high performance ray-tracing in applications and games? Because that seems to me like the next logical step for the marriage. It's a problem domain where programmers are already struggling and it lends itself well to highly-parallel processing.
I understand that the word 'traditional' may be a bit confusing. Anyway, in my opinion, it's the News Industry before the Social Media. ..It's not a very precise definition, though.
Ebook readers will become ubiquitous in developed countries by 2012-2013 and then developing countries by 2020

(Of course all my predictions have +/- a couple of years of margin for error)

[EDIT: changed 2010 to 2020, guess I am still in 2009 mode]
Mario meets Tetris, Epic
Two main predictions:

Telerobots become commonplace. These will be not much more than a wheeled or tracked base with a pole and holder for a mobile phone. It allows you to visit people in their homes, visit companies or customers, provide some kinds of medical service and carry out inspections of remote sites.

Augmented reality becomes a major entertainment system. You wear something like an EyeTap device and 3D content is projected into your field of view. The device also contains a accelerometers (same as the Wii controllers) to monitor head pose. Highly compelling 3D content, including games, business charts, street directions, ads, and even "adult content" can be interacted with at any location using the headset, which is wirelessly linked to something like a mobile phone or laptop.
http://www.newscientist.com/blog/technology/2008/02/turn-old...

The second part of your post is actually the central thesis of William Gibsons 'Spook Country', he calls it 'locative art'.
America will pull out from Afghanistan, and the central government will fall before the decade ends.
Stuff like that has a tendency to become a persistent fly in the ointment of a forum. Attacks and criticisms beget more attacks and criticisms. Often, later attacks are done with some intention of stopping the cycle. But fighting against the fighting is still fighting.

Thanks for the run down.
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which site?
I believe if you go to each page there is a "Download mov" link. Also, I'm releasing everything creative commons cc-by-nc-sa, so torrent away.
If traditional news means printed onto paper and sold daily, probably yes. By 2019 newspapers may still exist, but will be a niche and relatively expensive retro media format for fashionistas.
Things will actually be even more awesome than they are today, but because governments have no idea how to manage all the awesome, things will actually seem crappier.

I mean, I'm thinking like, silver jumpsuit awesome here.
This is almost a no-brainer. I also predict something similar to a rerun of the soviet withdrawal.
I predict lots of people will make predictions, but we'll never go back to check and see if they were right.

Was there a 2009 prediction thread we can look at?

Fun website idea: a site where you register your predictions and a date you expect it to happen by, then when that date occurs people can confirm/deny your prediction. And perhaps you could make it a game by assigning points to predictions.
Drag and drop file uploading using JavaScript
I assume you meant developing countries by 2020?
We have 10 years to find out =)
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> the end of 32 bit computing.

I'd qualify that one, as the "embedded" world tends to hang on to older stuff for a long time. I don't see, for instance, mobile phones going to 64 bit just yet...
We're already very much on the augmented reality trajectory if you look at the Johnny Chung Lee stuff, Google Goggles, Wii, etc. Once the original EyeTap patents lapse I think there will be a rush of consumer electronics companies implementing something very similar.
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Small discussion on this bill last night at http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1024137.
Agreed. Many of the examples you've cited seem to be niche/ boutique companies. I suppose there aren't too many organizations the size of RedHat relying on the pure-service model.
A habitable (to some life, not necessarily to human life) extra-solar Earth like planet is discovered by 2020.
super interesting. it is a possibility for some people that access the web from a slow conection. All they need is access the shell and enter commands for get the results from web.
why dont you suck his dick in the process.
Ok, as requested: the end of 32 bit computing for consumer pcs and server platforms.

So all mainstream machines not being mobile or embedded devices will be 64 bits by the end of the decade (and plenty of those will be too, but you are right, not all of them).

I thought that it was fairly obvious that that is what I meant, after all, we are today also able to buy 16 and even 12 or 8 bit cpus for embedding. But even most mobile phones and pdas are already on a 32 bit platform these days.
PATBINGSU
I wish I could upvote you ten times.

This is the one thing I really want to see in my lifetime. Habitable extrasolar planets discovered. The more the merrier. I'd like to see hundreds of them within a 100 light-year radius or so. Enough that it hopefully awakens some kind of long-sleeping drive for mankind to explore.

Contact with some sort of intelligent alien life is the stretch goal :)
It depends whether you count from zero to nine, or one to ten
Internet will become for most people in developed countries as important as it used to be for "early adopters" in the past.
Yup, edited in the post..
You probably could - and one could make the argument that someone that industrious is exactly the kind of person you'd want.

However, the visa status is contingent on the company following through with its business plan to create X job and/or take in $1M of revenue. If the company isn't doing that (or if "the investment in the commercial enterprise was intended solely as a means of evading the immigration laws of the United States" - which seems like it would cover what you're describing), the visa gets pulled and the deportation process begins.

One can also imagine that INS would keep a very tight leash on the program in its first few years to make sure this isn't happening.
Yes, Apple has released a bunch of shitty products before, but none of them received any hype. I think what the parent is saying is what happens if Apple can't meet the expectations and the hype that has been appearing in the mainstream press for some of Apple's latest products. Apple's reputation could really take a hit.
http://www.longbets.org/
* Still no fusion power.

* Microsoft sells large parts of itself in order to be able to focus on its core competencies (just like IBM did)

* Someone will make an actually usable e-book reader.

* During the second half of the decade, the Chinese bubble will burst. This will be a quite heavy shock. A lot of people will lose a lot of money. A younger/more populist group of politicians will assume power in China.

* Brazil will become a real powerhouse.

* Hugo Chavez & his friends will be removed from power in Venezuela.

* Still no Duke Nukem Forever.

* 'Minimal Techno' will finally die / go out of fashion.

* Lady Gaga will be the new Madonna.

* Functional programming / dynamic languages will go out of fashion. People still using them will be judged as incompetent programmers by the people who moved on to the new fashionable programming paradigm(s). At the same time, huge corporations will embrace functional programming / dynamic languages and third world universities will start focusing on them in their courses.

* Google will experience change in management. From there, it will be downhill for them (at least for the rest of the decade).

* Surprisingly enough, Apple will still stay relevant even though Steve Jobs will have to leave his position due to health problems or something else.

That's what I could come up with off the top of my head. Feel free to disagree / rant / do name calling, this is not a serious thread anyway.
Widespread adoption of GNU/Linux on the desktop. (Prompted by...)

Widespread adoption of LISP by developers. (Both of which cause...)

The Singularity! (But, sadly, Ray Kurzweil dies a few days before the Singularity happens.)

Okay, okay, prediction is a mugs game.

Democracy in Iran would be nice. I'm not sure why I need a customised personal display on my refrigerator. Cheaper displays and other computing devices would be nice - as would a stable, clean energy supply to power them with.
re. the 'stretch' goal:

It all boils down to one question only: how common are the conditions that lead to life? The statistics of that are that we think that if it is possible it will happen. But that doesn't mean that there will be an evolutionary path leading to intelligent life.

Intelligence is not some kind of 'goal' that evolution works towards.

Alien intelligent life could be as alien as Dolphins are, we really can't seem to do much with that other than prove that they are sentient by some arbitrary measure.
In 2020, AMD's 3rd generation holodeck isn't quite like Star Trek, but the future video games and videoconferencing/telepresence systems make today's tech look like something out of the stone age.

Reference: AMD's product roadmap is for the first generation, holodeck in 2016. http://www.anandtech.com/printarticle.aspx?i=3635

"Carrell believes it'll take seven years to be able to deliver a 180 degree hemispherical display (you're not completely surrounded by displays but at least your forward and peripheral vision is) with positionally accurate and phase accurate sound (both calculated by the GPU in real time). The GPU will also be used to recognize speech, track gestures and track eye movement/position."
I've had a Sansa for two years and have had no problems with it. It was cheap, it's easy to use, it has good storage, it doubles as a cheap voice recorder, it's easy to add and remove music (I use Rhythmbox on Linux or drag-and-drop on Windows), the battery lasts a long time. I'm curious to know why you hate yours.
Choose at least some books and other educational materials which appear to be relevant to some real world problem you are trying to work on. But don't be too strict about it. Following something that sparks your interest may bring you the solution you didn't know you needed. Still, anything you can do to tie it to real world goals will make it more memorable and useful.

Good luck with this.
One of the first things I do when setting up a new VM is install DenyHosts:

http://denyhosts.sourceforge.net/

The out of the box config options are pretty decent, giving a few attempts to most accounts but only one wrong password for root before blocking the IP address.

I have it send email notifications to my support ticket tracking system, which automatically sorts them so I can see how heavily I'm being attacked at any given time, or if one VM in particular is being targeted. (One VM has been a particular target over the holidays, so I just turned off SSH entirely and access it using the Xen console for now.)

The down side of having a good understanding of how much you're under attack is that it is a bit disturbing. In reality, I know that I could just leave SSH running on all my VMs, but turning it off when someone's targeting one of them reduces the flow of scary emails. The most disturbing thing is how many machines these guys must have already compromised, since as soon as you block one IP address another steps in.
One of the French surrealists noted that "Salavador Dali" is an anagram of "Avida Dollars".
Time, the Infinite Storyteller
> Rule #7 -- Keep it Short

There was a post on HN a few months ago suggesting that comment length correlates positively with comment quality.
I'm very curious to see the preliminary Kepler results announced on the 4th, though I think if they actually found any small rocky planets the results would have leaked already.

My timeline is that Kepler has discovered hundreds of rocky planets in the habitable zones of their suns by 2013. This sets off the public imagination and NASA and friends have the funding to design and launch Kepler Mark II around 2017 though with enough funding it could be faster. Maybe 2023 or 2024 is a more realistic timeline for confirming a planet's habitability to >95%.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=1014934... refers briefly to a potential type of oxygen, CO2, water, and methane detecting telescope.

As for the stretch goal, maybe Alpha Centauri does have life. If it does have a potentially habitable planet, we are definitely going to know within five years. http://seedmagazine.com/content/article/the_long_shot/
Wealthy foreigners already do buy their way into the States through the EB-5 visa.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EB-5_visa

The startup visa seeks to change the EB-5 visa to include people who aren't wealthy, but would also create jobs in the US by starting viable companies.
Really the best part I'm looking forward to is Doctor Who. I'm pretty apprehensive about the new Doctor, but there's a full season and frankly, the bits from "The End of Time" p1 are pretty exciting.

Predictions: we'll see a good-sized shift in our political base representing the un/under-skilled and unemployed.
I don't agree, but I don't disagree. It may be something evolution works towards, but only in highly-competitive environments?

I think that's one of the things that would be so profound about contacting some intelligent life. It would start giving us empirical data on all of these questions we currently have: Does life necessarily evolve towards intelligence, what similarities all intelligent life has, does all intelligent life continue evolving towards some sort of machine intelligence, how commonplace is intelligent life, does intelligent life in the universe mimic any of our previous social structures, like liege-serf system, are we currently being isolated on purpose, if so why etc.

So let's say we find a bunch of planets with carbon-burning industrial societies, but no FTL travel, and nothing beyond that. Is there some sort of limit in place?

I'm not looking for ET contact to answer any questions, but to begin the asking of a whole lot more interesting questions.
Augmented reality could also be used for political purposes. I imagine that as part of an election promotion campaign a photo-realistic avatar of the candidate sits opposite to you in your living room and says "look Bob, it's like this...". The avatar has access to your data and can completely customize the political message to your individual circumstances. This ultra personalized campaigning could be highly effective.