skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
You think that three developers and an art designer can singlehandedly write the software that runs a nuclear power plant, let alone Android or Apache? I think you're right in that we will see a continued rise in the prominence and impact of small software shops making single-purpose tools/programs, but large organizations aren't going anywhere, and they shouldn't.

As for getting rid of managers, that won't happen - and nor should it. In a lot of places there is management when there shouldn't be, but when you're working as part of a larger organization - say, more than ten people and/or three "departments" - good management (by someone dedicated to that role) is essential for success.
-Unauthenticated free wifi becomes nearly extinct after a major hacking incident is traced to Panera Bread (or similar) and a court rules that companies are liable for the actions of those on their free wifi networks. Realizing this, companies force authentication on everyone or turn off their wifi all together.

-Technology continues to move toward extending our proprioception as we invent solutions that give us continual awareness of our loved ones, their location, and emotional state as if they are a part of us.

-Tracking your children electronically becomes a social norm to the extent that not tracking them is considered somewhat negligent.

-By the end of the decade, the phone is the personal computer.

-External brain-computer interfaces make progress, and typing begins to be replaced by the end of the decade.

-BPA and pthalates are finally banned from the food and personal grooming categories.

-In the later half of the decade, Steve Jobs realizes he is in spitting distance of toppling the Microsoft business near-monopoly and by hook or by crook, puts out the business apps, email servers, etc needed to finish the job. In spite of this, the transition takes years.

-People become more privacy aware after an image search engine with facial recognition is popularized and they realize that any picture ever posted of them by anyone is in the search result for their name. People become less willing to let others take compromising pictures as if they become posted, the link back to them will be made.

-A company makes a practice of hiring experienced older workers that other companies won't touch at sub-standard pay rates and the strategy works so well they are celebrated in a Fortune article.

Edit:

-The technology that will eventually 'cure' cancer is invented--essentially a find and kill tool for a genetic signature. Signature creation is built for more and more cancers and becomes more dynamic with added logic over time.
Also see thread on Lesswrong: http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/
What's wrong with the traditional folder full of symlinks? This article doesn't talk about symbolic links at all, and they would solve all the "problems" discussed here.
1. The death of x86, as we know it- x86 emulation for historical reasons. One of CPU/ GPU will have to beat the other.

2. The rise of mainstream functional programming.

3. By 2020, Chrome and Firefox each have 35% market share. Internet Explorer becomes insignificant.

4. PS4 gets something to thrash Project Natal. The death of the PC as a gaming platform.

5. The death of GCC. LLVM/ Clang will replace it.

6. Microsoft tries harder to be the be-all and end-all of all software/ services, and eventually starts losing market share in several weak sectors.
the end of 32 bit computing

I wonder how long it will be before 128 bit is the new 64 bit?
Ask HN: Early bird still gets the worm?
Just wondering how many hackers believe in this old adage and if they think it applies to software startups in general or at all..

My personal belief is that it's just a matter of personal preference and it has no correlation to startup success for hackers.. I happen to be more nocturnal, always have been.. Of course having grown up in New England I've heard this puritanical proverb for most of my life and I can't help but feel a little guilty for 'staying up late' and 'sleeping in'.

I can see why it would apply to certain other industries like finance/banking..

So what do you think? Does this 'wisdom' apply to software startups and hackers?
Cutting up a goldfish or breeding in transparency are amoral. Whether you find it disgusting or not is a personal matter.

Unless of course I wanted to sell you something. At which point it would take prime importance, as it clearly did to these scientists.

(If they made a goldfish that glowed (like a night light) they would also have me in their market.)
Only if by "technically" you mean "equally arbitrary". (Unless you have a good reason why we should take Gregory XII's 1582 papal fiat that gave us our baroque calendaring system to be less arbitrary than demarcating decades by years that end in zero.) While your at it, I'm curious why we should consider the years 2 through 1581 to be more "real" than the year 0: that is, if he could retroactively name them by decree, why can't we just establish a convention that the year 0 === 1 B.C? It's not like doing so would destroy any elegance the system might have.
I'll take the bet on Duke Nukem Forever coming out. Or at least some first person shooter using the Duke Nukem IP. Let's say 300 yuan, payable by Paypal on January 1st, 2020 or earlier if the game comes out?
Wasn't Salvador Dali a Franco regime collaborator? He claimed to be Communist and Anarchist but I have my doubts.

I do not think that Steve Jobs is any of these, so why are they pretty similar?
Even if you make the animal see through you can't see behind organs that block other organs. What would have to occur is to change the pigmentation of all of the organs also.
* Someone will make an actually usable e-book reader.

What are the drawbacks with the kindle? (I have been considering buying one, recently.)
It may be this one: http://www.paulgraham.com/hackernews.html

I do see pg's reasoning here, but I don't necessarily know that I agree 100%. Yes, it's true that longer comments are likely to have more thought put into them. And that shorter comments are likely to have less thought put into them. However, I oftentimes find that making my comments brief takes more thought than writing a long comment.

After all, as pg also says, succinctness is power: http://www.paulgraham.com/power.html
When I was extremely ill, I suffered horrible insomnia and often went to sleep at 7am. During that time, I was not able to be genuinely productive. A lot of what I did amounted to churn and time-filling. When I began working, I took an evening shift job because I knew that although I was healthier, I still wasn't healthy enough to cope with getting up early. I now work dayshift, and that correlates to an ability to get up earlier because of improved health.

So if there is any correlation generally (not just for me) between health and schedule, then I would say that being an early bird may be a proxy for health but real productivity is rooted in sound health and the ability it provides to think clearly and do sustained work, which isn't specifically related to the hours you keep.
Ubiquitous mobile/wireless internet integrated into even very trivial consumer goods, with close to 100% coverage across the civilized world. A significant fraction of ordinary consumer goods simply won't work in "dark" zones. The gap between 1st and 3rd world countries will widen as a result - take a modern computer into backwoods Africa and it's a paperweight.

Google succeed in forcing the mobile providers to be commodity data pipes. They scream blue murder, try to cartel up, but Google breaks the cartel and several big names are forced out of the market.

Ebooks defeat paper books. All high street bookstores go bust. Rampant book piracy throws the copyright war into overdrive. Despite international treaties and draconian law, the pirates win.

Electric cars become fairly common. A destructive feedback loop starts for gasoline fuel: lower demand, lower profit, vendors go bust, less availability, monopoly prices, lower desirability. The gasoline economy is brittle because it has high fixed costs, a complex supply chain, and its power source isn't fungible. As with film versus digital cameras, the result is an exponential crash in the desirability of gasoline cars, with mass conversion to battery-electric and collapse of the oil industry. Government greenhouse warming policies will continue to be useless, but they'll be eclipsed by events. The big panic will be the overstraining electricity grid. Residential grids were not specced to fuel everybody's car at once.

Driverless cars will appear. As they move down from the high end to the mainstream, they'll make taxis cheap enough that private car ownership starts to become quaint. Eventually, driving your own car will be considered selfish risk-taking, and banned on public roads.
Terrorism is a tactic. It is nonsensical to talk about the causes of superior firepower, the causes of ambush, or the causes of propaganda.

Islamic Fundamentalism is an ideology. It is likewise nonsensical to talk about the causes of Buddhism, socialism, or libertarianism.

But just for kicks, in your view, what exactly are the "causes" of terrorism? They are central to the claim you are making, but you don't say what they are. Why?
Hmm... put it this way, it is productive to put in three hours of work in your business before your opposition wakes up!
Everything has it bounds though. There is a point where a comment goes from well thought out and detailed commentary and into the realm of long winded rambling nonsense or expository blowhardedness. It should probably be just long enough to make your point.

There's something to be said for being able to communicate clearly and succinctly.
Great post -- really enjoyed that, and wish I'd thought of doing something like that.
What will be the new fashionable programming paradigm(s)?
Information on Prostate Cancer Stages
And a nice example of how to communicate more clearly and briefly than my comment!
He understood what you meant. He was implying that it's already practically gone.
> unalone accepts Pulitzer for blog

That was really nice of you.

> Ask HN: What was Microsoft Office?

We can only wish...

19 and 4 are mutually exclusive for a single universe.

Edit: if there is a way to work Elon Musk in there somewhere that would be good, I have a feeling he's going to make some big waves in the next 10 years but I haven't a clue how.
But then you'd be Ed, and we already have Ed. Better to do something original!

So, what did you think of doing ? Now do that!
Why would they unify? They are doing very different jobs (serial versus vector processing).
Why is that more productive than putting in those hours after the opposition has already gone to bed?
Brilliant! Made me laugh :) I especially like "What was Microsoft Office" and TechCrunch's post.
Upvoted for reference to Woody Allen's Sleeper. And because it was brilliant. Now, about that Polaroid stock...
Also, this decade sees the beginning of the "pension bomb" - the demographic bulge of post-war baby boomers crossing the threshold into retirement. It's fairly easy to predict that there will be pensions scandals, with some pensions companies going bust or paying out far less to recipients than had been originally advertised. Also I predict the beginning of large supermarket scale retirement homes/complexes/compounds, where economies of scale can reduce costs of elder care.
Same, though my experience is subject to selection bias; I'm an MS student, so I only tend to meet grad students and the more motivated undergrads (the ones who take grad classes or the ones who care enough to come to my office hours).

Despite having a BS in CS, I've still learned a lot about computer science at Stanford, and (thanks to the ridiculous amount TAs get paid here) I've had to pay very little for my degree.
Dealing With Unwanted SSH Bruteforcing
Valve has also stated that in this situation, they'll release the keys to the Steam servers.
Terrorism is the gravest threat facing the American people today because small numbers of people acting violently have the ability to sway a populace to do irrational things.

Just to be sure I'm reading you correctly, I think you're saying that you _agree_ that yes, terrorism is the gravest threat facing the US right now. Furthermore, the reason that it's the gravest threat is because a few terrorists "have the ability to sway a populace to do irrational things".

If so: horse hockey.

As to the first part, a person's odds of being personally affected by terrorism are infinitesimal, especially if you don't live in NYC, Washington, LA, or San Fran.

Yes, it only takes a few terrorists to commit an attack. But how we react to it is entirely up to us; they have no power to "sway" us into irrational acts--that has been purely the choice of our leaders and media, who have used the fear of terrorism as a way to build their own powerbase and advance their own agendas. I do not know ONE SINGLE private citizen who is actually afraid of terrorists, despite having zero confidence in our TSA and security procedures.
Reasonable timeline estimates I've heard for singularity precipitating events (human uploading, human level AI) are in the 15-30 year range weighted early, and these aren't handwaves meaning "we don't know", but, respectively, predictions from the microscopy/neuroscience/compute-power needed to scan and emulate a brain, and from the neuroscience/compute-power needed to figure out the brain's abstract algorithms and copy them.

Still outside the range of one decade. Call this one "prelude to singularity".
Correction: "And if only 9% of HN users are Indian..."
Oberon highly influenced the Plan9 team.
A Brief History of Online Video
I don't know how to define excellent... I think the question is, should we make an attempt to select for positive qualities, or just accept almost completely random immigration. I've read about Australia's points system, and I'd say it's a big improvement over the US's system.

I like Australia's system because it doesn't overly emphasize engineering or technology - sure, those are good attributes, but so is a background in nursing, medicine, plumbing, law, and so forth. It also (appears to) preserves freedom for the immigrant. I'd like to see any worker visa category in the US awarded directly to the immigrant, with no obligation to remain with the sponsoring employer.

But there's no real way around the point you're making - any attempt to select for "excellence" is going to make use of formal credentials, like university degrees, membership in the bar, possession of a plumbing license, and so forth... and this is a problem considering that people like Steve Jobs had none of these things. So maybe some randomness would help.

The real problem, I think, is that the only truly free system would be unlimited mobility across national borders, which is a practical impossibility right now. Any meaningful limits are going to leave some people who would have been good contributors out.
"Prolume" is a biotechnology company whose core business is based upon newly discovered genes from deep water marine bioluminescent organisms. This has broad applications for biomedical research, drug discovery, and entertainment.

http://prolume.com

Not glowing goldfish but their BioToy division has some wickedly-cool science gifts.
The early bird may get the worm. But the second mouse gets the cheese.
Doing without sleep to put in more hours is never worth it. When you're well rested your brain functions much more effectively, you're better at dealing with people and it's easier to remain upbeat.

Also the notion of putting in more hours is a pernicious one. It's much better to focus on getting the most important things done. (You'll still have way too much work but at least you'll be getting the important stuff done).
more common examples would be white blocks on black background vs. light colored blocks on white background.

Does anyone like to have lots of white (ala facebook)?
4004 1971, 4 bits, 740 Khz

8080 1974, 8 bits, 2 MHz

8086 1978, 16 bits, 5 MHz

80386 1985, 32 bits, 12 MHz

AMDK8 2003, 64 bits, 1 GHz

Only 'x86' parts, if you look at other architectures (for instance 68k) then the dates will be quite different.

The interesting part about that list is that if the clock frequencies had continue to increase I'm fairly sure that the 32 bit model would have been taken a lot further up before going for 64 bits.

So it seems as though the widening of the datapath is to some extent used to offset the limit on CPU frequency.
Apple Expects To Ship 10 Million Tablets in First Year
You'll have to link brain emulation to an increase in intelligence though. For all you know a simulated brain is going to end up being retarded or anti-social or pathological.

Neither of those would have any measurable effect on how we live, the 'superhuman intelligence' is actually the least likely outcome, at least in the beginning of this.

It might happen, but I don't think it is very likely.
At least one HN long-time contributor and non YC will launch a company that does stupendously well and he/she will reference HN as a vital resource/support in their formative days.

Videogames continue to evolve into real-time collaborative tools.

The 1st edition of The Primer (a magical in the Arthur C. Clarke sense AI device).

"A book that is powered by a computer so advanced it’s almost magical, and it teaches children everything. It does this through a fully interactive story. It teaches you how to read, how to do maths, it teaches you morals, ethics, even self-defence."

http://mssv.net/2006/05/01/the-young-ladys-illustrated-prime...
>The day a Jewish Terrorist decides to bomb El Al, is the end of the "Interview" system, and the adoption of shoe screening, liquid screening and full body scans.

First of all, that's not a very realistic concern, which is why they're not concerned by it. Second of all, I don't think you understand how the interview system works. It's based on evaluating behavior and trying to detect anxiety - they don't just ask whether your name is Yossi or Abdullah.
Unexpected Thoughts Regarding Classical Music
Social Rocks. Mobility Rolls. Music Trends 2009-2010.
This is an interesting link. I always wondered how much money I would need to buy my way into permanent residency in any country in the world. (I am assuming that the USA is among the most difficult -- those with expertise, please correct me if I'm wrong.) It's one of those useful benchmarks for how rich "rich" is.

The price is high, but not astoundingly high, if I'm reading this right. You need $500k in capital that you're willing to invest in "certain qualified investments or regional centers with high unemployment rates". You don't even necessarily have to lose the $500k, or even lose anything. You just need the capital.
8. Mark Zuckerman buys Portugal (worldnews.com)
51 points by larryz 14 hours ago | 16 comments

NO WAY! Portugal has been for sale for centuries without any takers. I can't believe that will change in a mere 10 years!

(FYI, I am portuguese)
You think that three developers and an art designer can singlehandedly write the software that runs a nuclear power plant...

Yes I do and I know a case with a document management system created by one developer and one analyst, which is now used by the Government of one country, including ministries and the PM's office. The competing offers for the same Govt were from a few superhuge and well known software corporations, but they all lost it to that application.

but when you're working as part of a larger organization - say, more than ten people and/or three "departments" - good management (by someone dedicated to that role) is essential for success

Actually no. Producing self-contained, self-sufficient software component has, in principle, very little to do with the size of the organization that creates such components. Small departments can be under the same financial roof, but functionally such small groups will become more and more independent in the future I think.
Excellent! This is why I love News.YC. It's all about the execution, not the idea. I didn't even have the idea to do something like edw519, and I love him for doing it.
Congrats! About time too!

They're nearly 1/6th of mankind. It's just amazing how such a large number of people can pull themselves out of the most wretched kind of poverty.

Indias and Africas of the world should take note.
Brain emulations don't have to be smarter than humans to be superhuman, they can be merely more numerous and/or quicker.

The time frame for proper AI not via emulation is actually shorter, cf Shane Legg's peak probability estimate of 18 years. This is because the mechanisms of learning and processing in the brain are well under way to being understood, and they will lead to copycat software using similar conventional "narrow AI" algorithms. These also have a greater potential than neural snapshots to be scaled up fast.

Unfortunately none of the above helps towards making "friendly" AI (that is, avoiding creating a superintelligence whose value system is inimical to ours). This ought to be a serious worry.
a person's odds of being personally affected by terrorism are infinitesimal, especially if you don't live in NYC, Washington, LA, of San Fran.

The attack that took place 7 days ago targeted Detroit International Airport.

that has been purely the choice of our leaders and media, who have used the fear of terrorism to build their own powerbase and advance their own agendas.

In other words, political and opinion leaders have responded to terrorism rationally, advancing their own interests while plausibly satisfying their respective job descriptions. Expecting them to suddenly ignore their goals and incentive structures is corrosive and naive. Yes, even if those incentives were altered by violent bad actors. Yes, even if the manipulation is obvious.

I do not know ONE SINGLE private citizen

This is a statement about you and your circle of acquaintances. For information about the body politic, I'll take the word of the Gallup Organization:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124892/Prior-Bomb-Scare-Worry-Ter...

Despite everything else that happened in 2009, 40% of people were still worried about terrorism before the bombing attempt. Now that number isn't going to drop below 50% for a long time.

Who's going to make a pariah of himself by telling the public that it's being irrational?
Somewhere in the world there is a time zone where you are the early bird.

Being an early bird in your own time zone is important when you have to physically stand in line for one thing or another. But now, for a software startup, most of those lines are virtual, and you can stand in an American line at 7am while sipping coffee in a cafe in Monaco at noon.

Obviously there are still many exceptions in the non-hacker world. If you want to run a bakery or a drive-time radio show you pretty much have to learn to love 3AM. And the problem for a software startup is that if you don't build your stuff right you might have to respond to emergencies at any random hour of the day or night, which is a much more serious problem than having to wake up consistently early or consistently late.
i would guess that the original poster meant something like "we need to look at what causes people to use terrorism". just like you might ask "why do people think socialism is a good idea?" or "why do people become islamic fundamentalists?"

to be honest, it's hard to see how you can not understand what was meant, unless you're just trying to be difficult.
This article doesn't talk about symbolic links at all, and they would solve all the "problems" discussed here.

The only problem symlinks can address would that of having files available under multiple locations. But that's still strictly hierarchical and bound to become a maintenance nightmare soon (just think about file renames).

Tag based filesystems are indeed an interesting idea and a somewhat logical next step from the traditional hierarchical fs + desktop search tandem that is commonplace now.
Let me guess... You'll be retired at nearly the same time you predict the singularity will occur?