context: Chances are slight that Lily is a swan. It is probably the case that Bernhard is green. We believe that Mary moved to the garden. It is highly unlikely that if Bernhard is green, and Lily is a swan, then Julius is a frog. It is likely that if Bernhard is green, and Mary moved to the garden, then Greg is green. There is almost no chance that if Mary moved to the garden, or Bernhard is green, then John went to the bedroom.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that either Mary moved to the garden, or Greg is green.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that either Mary moved to the garden, or Greg is green.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that either Mary moved to the garden, or Greg is green.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Mary moved to the garden, or Greg is green.