context: It is highly unlikely that Lily is white. Chances are slight that Bill went to the kitchen. There is a better than even chance that Greg is yellow. Chances are slight that if Lily is white, or Greg is yellow, then Bernhard is gray. It is probable that if Bill went to the kitchen, or Greg is yellow, then Julius is gray. It is probably the case that if either Greg is yellow, or Bill went to the kitchen, then Brian is a swan.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that brian is a swan, and Greg is yellow.
valid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that brian is a swan, and Greg is yellow.
invalid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that brian is a swan, and Greg is yellow.
hypothesis_assertion: Brian is a swan, and Greg is yellow.