context: It is probably not the case that Bernhard is a lion. It is probably the case that Daniel left the milk. It is likely that Sandra got the apple. It is likely that if Sandra got the apple, or Daniel left the milk, then Julius is a swan. Chances are slight that if either Bernhard is a lion, or Daniel left the milk, then Jeff went to the office. It is unlikely that if Bernhard is a lion, and Daniel left the milk, then Greg is a frog.
hypothesis: Chances are about even that greg is a frog, and Bernhard is a lion.
valid_hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that greg is a frog, and Bernhard is a lion.
invalid_hypothesis: Chances are about even that greg is a frog, and Bernhard is a lion.
hypothesis_assertion: Greg is a frog, and Bernhard is a lion.