Premise: Three men with blue jerseys try to score a goal in soccer against the other team in white jerseys and their goalie in green.
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the goalie is one of the best, and it is hard for the men on the other team to score.
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that the goalie is one of the best, and it is hard for the men on the other team to score.