Premise: Man in black with a feathered hat sits atop a horse .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the man has been riding his horse all day .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the man has been riding his horse all day .
Correct statement: We believe that a man poses on a horse before a horse show wearing a black feathered hat .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a man poses on a horse before a horse show wearing a black feathered hat .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a cowboy rides his horse out to work .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a cowboy rides his horse out to work .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the man is holding on to the horse 's reins .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that the man is holding on to the horse 's reins .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man ride his horse in a competition .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a man ride his horse in a competition .