Premise: A girl is giving a dog a treat .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a dog is eating two treats and playing with a girl .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a dog is eating two treats and playing with a girl .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a girl is giving a dog a bone .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a girl is giving a dog a bone .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the dog is a collie .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the dog is a collie .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a girl is giving a homeless dog a bone .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a girl is giving a homeless dog a bone .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that a lady is giving her dog a rawhide bone .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a lady is giving her dog a rawhide bone .