Premise: A man is sitting down pointing and looking into the distance , there is beer bottles appearing in the background as well .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man points north into the distance and wonders how far he is from home .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that a man points north into the distance and wonders how far he is from home .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a drunk man is giving directions .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a drunk man is giving directions .
Correct statement: There is little chance that drunk man pointing at someone he believes he recognizes .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that drunk man pointing at someone he believes he recognizes .
Correct statement: We believe that the man is drunk .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the man is drunk .
Correct statement: It is likely that a man is pointing at something moving in the distance .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a man is pointing at something moving in the distance .