Premise: A red plane flying over a boat as it trails pink smoke .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the red plane is flying over a lake .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the red plane is flying over a lake .
Correct statement: We believe that a plane is skywriting over the water .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a plane is skywriting over the water .
Correct statement: We doubt that a plane is flying over a ship in the water and the ship is blowing smoke .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a plane is flying over a ship in the water and the ship is blowing smoke .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a pilot is performing stunts in a plane over the water .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a pilot is performing stunts in a plane over the water .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a plane sky writes over a lake .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a plane sky writes over a lake .