Premise: Man dressed in coat , scarf , and hat painting a picture of a building on an easel in the streets .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that it is cold outside .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that it is cold outside .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the man is in a black coat .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the man is in a black coat .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man is painting a picture of his home while standing outside in the cold .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man is painting a picture of his home while standing outside in the cold .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that the man is an artist
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the man is an artist
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that an artist paints an old building in a city .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that an artist paints an old building in a city .