Premise: A boy playing with a yellow toy boat in brown , murky water .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that a boy is in the brown murky water playing with his yellow toy boat .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a boy is in the brown murky water playing with his yellow toy boat .
Correct statement: There is little chance that the boy 's favorite color is yellow
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the boy 's favorite color is yellow
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a child plays in a lake with a toy boat .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a child plays in a lake with a toy boat .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a boy is playing with a toy boat in sewer water .
Incorrect statement: We believe that a boy is playing with a toy boat in sewer water .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a boy wearing blue shorts and a striped shirt is playing with a boat .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that a boy wearing blue shorts and a striped shirt is playing with a boat .