Premise: A young fair-skinned boy rides a play horse at a playground .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the child is an expert at horse .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the child is an expert at horse .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the boy is pretending to be a jockey .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the boy is pretending to be a jockey .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that there is a young boy riding a blue and white play horse at a playground .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that there is a young boy riding a blue and white play horse at a playground .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a young boy rides a play horse at the playground outside his elementary school .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a young boy rides a play horse at the playground outside his elementary school .
Correct statement: It is likely that the boy is at recess .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the boy is at recess .