Premise: Topless old man wearing slippers , navy blue pants and a white hat while reclining in a chair outside .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man is on vacation .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a man is on vacation .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the man is trying to get a tan
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the man is trying to get a tan
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the man 's white hat has an image of an eagle on it .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the man 's white hat has an image of an eagle on it .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that it is warm outside .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that it is warm outside .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a topless old man is sunbathing .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a topless old man is sunbathing .