Premise: two guys sitting on the floor , with the guy in the green jacket reading a piece of paper .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a guy is reading a letter from his girlfriend .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a guy is reading a letter from his girlfriend .
Correct statement: We doubt that the men are taking turns reading the paper .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the men are taking turns reading the paper .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the man is reading a letter the two men found under a tree .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the man is reading a letter the two men found under a tree .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the piece of paper is an eviction notice for the couple .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the piece of paper is an eviction notice for the couple .
Correct statement: It is likely that a man in green is reading to another man .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a man in green is reading to another man .