Premise: Two boys and two girls jump as they have their photo taken .
Correct statement: It is likely that two boys and two girls have their photo taken for a birthday party .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that two boys and two girls have their photo taken for a birthday party .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the boys and girls jumped for their picture at a school dance .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that the boys and girls jumped for their picture at a school dance .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that four kids jump as they have their photo taken outside
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that four kids jump as they have their photo taken outside
Correct statement: It is impossible that 4 children jump for a photo in a bouncy castle .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that 4 children jump for a photo in a bouncy castle .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the children are getting their photos taken as a surprise for their parents .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that the children are getting their photos taken as a surprise for their parents .