Premise: A man in a gray hat pushes some type of equipment over ice .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the man is outside .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the man is outside .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the man in the gray hat is tired and wants to go home .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the man in the gray hat is tired and wants to go home .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that there is a man smoothing the ice rink .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that there is a man smoothing the ice rink .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man is getting the ice ready for the hockey game .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a man is getting the ice ready for the hockey game .
Correct statement: We doubt that an older man is moving his ice fishing equipment out onto a frozen lake .
Incorrect statement: We believe that an older man is moving his ice fishing equipment out onto a frozen lake .