Premise: A black man , running in mud , with no shirt on .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a black man is a cross country runner .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a black man is a cross country runner .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that an in shape black man is running through the mud .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that an in shape black man is running through the mud .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a shirtless black man runs through mud during a race
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a shirtless black man runs through mud during a race
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a man is running through an obstical course .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that a man is running through an obstical course .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that during the race the black man without a shirt runs in the mud .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that during the race the black man without a shirt runs in the mud .