Premise: A woman who is dressed up peddles on her bike while holding an umbrella .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a young man in sports gear rides a bike up the hill as fast as he can
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a young man in sports gear rides a bike up the hill as fast as he can
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that it is raining outside .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that it is raining outside .
Correct statement: It is probable that it is raining and the woman is on her bike trying to get home quickly .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that it is raining and the woman is on her bike trying to get home quickly .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a woman is riding her bike in the rain .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a woman is riding her bike in the rain .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a woman is biking in the rain .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a woman is biking in the rain .