Premise: A one-armed man in a brown shirt sits in a chair facing the camera .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the one-armed man is at the BMV getting his picture taken for his id .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the one-armed man is at the BMV getting his picture taken for his id .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a war veteran sitting in a chair .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a war veteran sitting in a chair .
Correct statement: It is impossible that an amputee reflects on life with two arms
Incorrect statement: It is probable that an amputee reflects on life with two arms
Correct statement: Chances are about even that someone is holding a large black camera .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that someone is holding a large black camera .
Correct statement: We believe that a man poses for a picture .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man poses for a picture .