Premise: A child wearing shorts is moving a window screen .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a child moves a window screen from the window in the living room .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a child moves a window screen from the window in the living room .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the child moves a window screen on a hot day .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the child moves a window screen on a hot day .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the child likes shorts .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the child likes shorts .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the child is helping replace a screen .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the child is helping replace a screen .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the child is closing the window because he is cold .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the child is closing the window because he is cold .