Premise: A man in a black shirt is riding a mule trough the desert , with the sun shining in the background .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a man rides a mule in the desert toward an oasis .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a man rides a mule in the desert toward an oasis .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a man is riding his mule on his way home .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a man is riding his mule on his way home .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a man is racing through the desert toward an oasis .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that a man is racing through the desert toward an oasis .
Correct statement: We believe that the man owns the mule .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that the man owns the mule .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a man is riding a mule into the sunset .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a man is riding a mule into the sunset .