Premise: A runner holds up an index finger while she runs .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a girl is running through a park while holding up an index finger .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a girl is running through a park while holding up an index finger .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that after winning a race , an Olympian is doing a victory lap .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that after winning a race , an Olympian is doing a victory lap .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the runner is wearing shorts .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that the runner is wearing shorts .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a marathon runner is about to finish a race .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a marathon runner is about to finish a race .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a woman points to a bird while running
Incorrect statement: We believe that a woman points to a bird while running