Premise: A woman dressed in black is silhouetted against a cloud darkened sky .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the woman in black blocked the grey sky on her birthday
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the woman in black blocked the grey sky on her birthday
Correct statement: It is impossible that a woman in black stands outside at night waiting for a train .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that a woman in black stands outside at night waiting for a train .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a woman is in a black dress .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a woman is in a black dress .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the moon is out and it is nighttime .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the moon is out and it is nighttime .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the woman is tired
Incorrect statement: It is likely that the woman is tired