Premise: A black dog in the water
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a black dog is playing fetch in the water .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a black dog is playing fetch in the water .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a Labrador is swimming in a lake .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that a Labrador is swimming in a lake .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a dog tries to paddle across a small lake with his owner watching nearby .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a dog tries to paddle across a small lake with his owner watching nearby .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a black dog sitting down in the water .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a black dog sitting down in the water .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a dog is swimming .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a dog is swimming .