Premise: An old weathered , bearded man wearing all black , riding a beautiful white donkey on white rocks .
Correct statement: We doubt that an old man is riding a donkey to a friend 's house .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that an old man is riding a donkey to a friend 's house .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a old man is riding back to his house on a donkey .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a old man is riding back to his house on a donkey .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the old man is black .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the old man is black .
Correct statement: It is impossible that his donkey can talk .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that his donkey can talk .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man is riding a donkey to his home .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a man is riding a donkey to his home .