Premise: A crowd of people gathered around in a city .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that they are celebrating an annual festival .
Incorrect statement: We believe that they are celebrating an annual festival .
Correct statement: It is improbable that there is a writhing mass of people in the center of the city
Incorrect statement: It is certain that there is a writhing mass of people in the center of the city
Correct statement: It is likely that the people have gathered in the city streets to watch an event .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that the people have gathered in the city streets to watch an event .
Correct statement: It is likely that some people are together and having fun .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that some people are together and having fun .
Correct statement: It is impossible that people gather around the American city .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that people gather around the American city .