Premise: A clown in a street is playing with a hula hoop .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that there is a carnival going on .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that there is a carnival going on .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a clown has painted his face with brightly colored makeup .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a clown has painted his face with brightly colored makeup .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that the clown is entertaining people
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the clown is entertaining people
Correct statement: It is likely that a clown playing with children in the street using a hula hoop .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a clown playing with children in the street using a hula hoop .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that a clown is being paid to stand in the street with a hula hoop
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a clown is being paid to stand in the street with a hula hoop