Premise: The water is very calm .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that there is no one around the water .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that there is no one around the water .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the water is in a lake .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the water is in a lake .
Correct statement: There is little chance that the water is calm because it is an indoor pool .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the water is calm because it is an indoor pool .
Correct statement: It is improbable that there is n't a ripple in the water .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that there is n't a ripple in the water .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a calm ocean .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a calm ocean .