Premise: Two men carrying a briefcase talk to another man in a white t-shirt on a porch .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that two men are carrying black briefcases .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that two men are carrying black briefcases .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that three men talk , one of them is wearing a white t-shirt and holding a beer
Incorrect statement: It is likely that three men talk , one of them is wearing a white t-shirt and holding a beer
Correct statement: We believe that some of the men are businessmen .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that some of the men are businessmen .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that two men are selling things door to door .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that two men are selling things door to door .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the men are near their father .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that the men are near their father .