Premise: A woman in a red top and black shorts is pole vaulting .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a woman pole vaults in a finals competition .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that a woman pole vaults in a finals competition .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a woman trains for the next summer Olympics
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a woman trains for the next summer Olympics
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a woman is competing with other pole vaulters
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a woman is competing with other pole vaulters
Correct statement: We believe that the woman is outside
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the woman is outside
Correct statement: It is improbable that a woman is at a track and field competition .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a woman is at a track and field competition .