Premise: a black dog is standing on a step next to a river as it shakes itself dry .
Correct statement: We doubt that the dog was playing fetch with it 's master .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the dog was playing fetch with it 's master .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the dog likes to swim .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that the dog likes to swim .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the dog fell off of a motor boat .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the dog fell off of a motor boat .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the river is flowing from north to south .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the river is flowing from north to south .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that a dog shakes off after being pushed into water .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a dog shakes off after being pushed into water .