Premise: A black dog with a red collar wading through the water .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a dog is swimming across the water to find it 's owner .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a dog is swimming across the water to find it 's owner .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that a black puppy with a red collar is learning to swim .
Incorrect statement: We believe that a black puppy with a red collar is learning to swim .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that a black dog is trying to find his toy .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a black dog is trying to find his toy .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a big black dog is wading through the water to his owner .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a big black dog is wading through the water to his owner .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a huge black dog is wearing a collar .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a huge black dog is wearing a collar .