Premise: A man standing in a kitchen , holding a rolling pin and smoking a cigarette .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man is making cookies while smoking .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man is making cookies while smoking .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the baker smokes in his kitchen
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the baker smokes in his kitchen
Correct statement: It is impossible that his children are coughing because he is exposing them to second-hand smoke .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that his children are coughing because he is exposing them to second-hand smoke .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that he has been smoking in the kitchen all day long .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that he has been smoking in the kitchen all day long .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man stands in the kitchen as he holds a rolling pin and is ready to bake .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a man stands in the kitchen as he holds a rolling pin and is ready to bake .