Premise: Bum listening to the radio by a light post near the beach .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a homeless man is listening to the news on the radio while relaxing on the beach .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a homeless man is listening to the news on the radio while relaxing on the beach .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the hobo is relaxing on their favorite bench , listening to the news .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the hobo is relaxing on their favorite bench , listening to the news .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a homeless person is listening to old music as he tries to go to sleep next to the beach
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a homeless person is listening to old music as he tries to go to sleep next to the beach
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a man is hearing his favorite song
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a man is hearing his favorite song
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the bum was old .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the bum was old .