Premise: Kids running in the field .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that kids are playing tag with one another .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that kids are playing tag with one another .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that three kids play in a field .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that three kids play in a field .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the children are playing soccer .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the children are playing soccer .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that kids play soccer in a field .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that kids play soccer in a field .
Correct statement: We doubt that kids are playing tag in the grass .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that kids are playing tag in the grass .