Premise: There is a small spiral notebook next to the pile of papers in the bottom left .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the pile of papers looks like it was knocked over .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the pile of papers looks like it was knocked over .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that there is a notebook on the left .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that there is a notebook on the left .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the notebook and papers are on the desk .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the notebook and papers are on the desk .
Correct statement: We believe that there is writing in the notebook .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that there is writing in the notebook .
Correct statement: It is probable that a notebook and some papers are on a desk .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a notebook and some papers are on a desk .