Premise: The black cup sitting on the black saucer resembles a top hat .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that the black cup and saucer on the table resemble a top hat .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the black cup and saucer on the table resemble a top hat .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the cup contains black tea in it .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the cup contains black tea in it .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that there was an empty cup sitting there .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that there was an empty cup sitting there .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that the black cup has coffee in it .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the black cup has coffee in it .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the black cup sitting on the black saucer is empty .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that the black cup sitting on the black saucer is empty .