Premise: A black man is talking to another man while holding a red cup in the middle of a crowd .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that men working a crowd
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that men working a crowd
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that two men talking about sports .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that two men talking about sports .
Correct statement: We doubt that a guy is talking to another guy at a party .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a guy is talking to another guy at a party .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a black man is talking to his brother at a family cookout .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a black man is talking to his brother at a family cookout .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that two men are talking at a party .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that two men are talking at a party .