Premise: A man in yellow and a man in green boating down a river on an overcast day .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man is in bright yellow .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man is in bright yellow .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man in yellow and a man in green boating down a muddy river on an overcast day .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a man in yellow and a man in green boating down a muddy river on an overcast day .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the men are smiling .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the men are smiling .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that two men boating down a river on an overcast day , as a salute to their fallen comrade .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that two men boating down a river on an overcast day , as a salute to their fallen comrade .
Correct statement: It is impossible that two men travel by boat from town to town .
Incorrect statement: We believe that two men travel by boat from town to town .