Premise: A group of African American children with their arms above their heads and happy expressions on their faces .
Correct statement: It is certain that the children are smiling .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the children are smiling .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the kids are playing .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that the kids are playing .
Correct statement: It is impossible that an ice cream truck came by and gave the kids free ice cream , making them happy .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that an ice cream truck came by and gave the kids free ice cream , making them happy .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that there are children outside dancing .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that there are children outside dancing .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a group of children played a game together .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a group of children played a game together .