Premise: A little girl holds a red balloon in front of a doorway .
Correct statement: It is improbable that the girl has pigtails .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the girl has pigtails .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a girl arrives at a birthday party .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a girl arrives at a birthday party .
Correct statement: We believe that a girl is at a birthday party .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a girl is at a birthday party .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a little girls in a doorway hold a red balloon on her birthday .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a little girls in a doorway hold a red balloon on her birthday .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the girl is in her home .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the girl is in her home .