Premise: A young girl wearing a bikini in an innertube .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a girl in a pink bikini is playing in an innertube .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a girl in a pink bikini is playing in an innertube .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a young girl in a bikini is in an inner tube race .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a young girl in a bikini is in an inner tube race .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that the girl is about to go down a waterslide .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the girl is about to go down a waterslide .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that the young girl is wearing a new bikini .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the young girl is wearing a new bikini .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a girl is about to slide down the tube in her innertube
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that a girl is about to slide down the tube in her innertube