Premise: There is a man swinging off a rope swing into a lake .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a man swings off a rope into a lake during a cannonball contest .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a man swings off a rope into a lake during a cannonball contest .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a man in blue shorts is swinging off a rope into a lake .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a man in blue shorts is swinging off a rope into a lake .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man at a party swings into the lake from a rope .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a man at a party swings into the lake from a rope .
Correct statement: There is little chance that a man is wearing a black bathing suit .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a man is wearing a black bathing suit .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the man is camping with his family in Yellowstone park .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the man is camping with his family in Yellowstone park .