Premise: Two girls stand in a puddle on a sidewalk .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that two sisters pose for a picture in a mud puddle on a sidewalk near a busy intersection .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that two sisters pose for a picture in a mud puddle on a sidewalk near a busy intersection .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that two girls are in a big city .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that two girls are in a big city .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that it has just rained outside .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that it has just rained outside .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that two girls are waiting for their bus .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that two girls are waiting for their bus .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that two sisters are playing in a puddle .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that two sisters are playing in a puddle .