Premise: A woman sitting on a train in between two people holding a white box and closing her eyes .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a woman is sitting on a train taking a nap while holding a white box .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a woman is sitting on a train taking a nap while holding a white box .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that there is candy in the white box .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that there is candy in the white box .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a woman on a train is taking a quick nap while holding a present
Incorrect statement: We doubt that a woman on a train is taking a quick nap while holding a present
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that three people guard a valuable box .
Incorrect statement: We believe that three people guard a valuable box .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the woman is delivering a parcel
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the woman is delivering a parcel