Premise: A man bundled up in a coat displaying with his arms a bunch of clothes .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man in a trenchcoat .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that a man in a trenchcoat .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that there is a man bundled up in a coat because it is cold .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that there is a man bundled up in a coat because it is cold .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a tall person in a coat
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a tall person in a coat
Correct statement: It is impossible that the man was taking off his coat
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the man was taking off his coat
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man holds pants in his arm with his coat on
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a man holds pants in his arm with his coat on