Premise: A big man in a black t-shirt is holding onto a beer with one hand and a microphone with the other .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a man is on stage .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a man is on stage .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the man is a farmer
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the man is a farmer
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a man is the announcer at a party .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a man is the announcer at a party .
Correct statement: It is certain that a big man in a black t-shirt has two hands .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a big man in a black t-shirt has two hands .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a comedian is entertaining the crowd at the club .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a comedian is entertaining the crowd at the club .