Premise: A dog is jumping into the water .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the water is warm .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that the water is warm .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the dog is swimming .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the dog is swimming .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a dog jumps at a fish in the water .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a dog jumps at a fish in the water .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a puppy is in the water .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a puppy is in the water .
Correct statement: It is improbable that the dog is diving in the water after a ball .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the dog is diving in the water after a ball .