Premise: a jewish man holds a menorah next to armed guards
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the armed guards have guns .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that the armed guards have guns .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that there is a Jewish man holding a menorah in protest next to armed guards .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that there is a Jewish man holding a menorah in protest next to armed guards .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man giving something sacred to his son .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a man giving something sacred to his son .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a Jewish man is holding a menorah outside .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a Jewish man is holding a menorah outside .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a jewish man happily holds a menorah .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a jewish man happily holds a menorah .