Premise: A black dog runs on the beach .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the dog runs off to greet his owner 's girlfriend .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the dog runs off to greet his owner 's girlfriend .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a dog runs after a ball on the beach .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a dog runs after a ball on the beach .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a black dog chases a Frisbie tossed to him on the beach .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that a black dog chases a Frisbie tossed to him on the beach .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the black dog is running on the beach to fetch a stick .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that the black dog is running on the beach to fetch a stick .
Correct statement: It is likely that the dog is running off the leash .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the dog is running off the leash .