Premise: A picture of a live duck on profile with head turned toward the camera in front of three younger children walking in the camera 's direction .
Correct statement: It is probable that live duck in a pond
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that live duck in a pond
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a duck quacking at three children
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a duck quacking at three children
Correct statement: There is little chance that there are three girls .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that there are three girls .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that three kids are recording a duck .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that three kids are recording a duck .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that three kids want to chase a large duck
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that three kids want to chase a large duck