Premise: Two young people are approached by a flamboyant young woman dressed in a red bikini and a red feathered headress .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that these young people are at Mardi Gras .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that these young people are at Mardi Gras .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that they say hello to the woman in red .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that they say hello to the woman in red .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the people are at Coachella .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the people are at Coachella .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a crazy lady approaches two frightened people .
Incorrect statement: We believe that a crazy lady approaches two frightened people .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that two young ladies called a young woman over to talk .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that two young ladies called a young woman over to talk .