Premise: Bearded man wearing sunglasses , hat and leather jacket standing by an orange life preserver .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man poses next to a life preserver on the boardwalk .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a man poses next to a life preserver on the boardwalk .
Correct statement: We doubt that a man is standing by the pool .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a man is standing by the pool .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the bearded man is about to board a boat , where he will have to wear a orange life preserver .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the bearded man is about to board a boat , where he will have to wear a orange life preserver .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that bearded men are inside
Incorrect statement: It is likely that bearded men are inside
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a bearded man is walking toward toward a life preserver .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a bearded man is walking toward toward a life preserver .