Premise: Two men on a balcony look up and point at something .
Correct statement: It is impossible that one man saw an UFO and pointed it out to the other man
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that one man saw an UFO and pointed it out to the other man
Correct statement: It is certain that two people are on a balcony .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that two people are on a balcony .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that some men are looking at clouds .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that some men are looking at clouds .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that the two men on the balcony are looking at the moon .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the two men on the balcony are looking at the moon .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that two men are looking at a bird
Incorrect statement: It is probable that two men are looking at a bird