Premise: A man wades in the water and watches a waterfall .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man swims in the lagoon .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a man swims in the lagoon .
Correct statement: It is improbable that the man sees a rainbow in a waterfall .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the man sees a rainbow in a waterfall .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man stands in cold water
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a man stands in cold water
Correct statement: It is highly likely that a man wades in the clear water .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man wades in the clear water .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man swims across some water to see a waterall
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man swims across some water to see a waterall