Premise: A man with a baseball cap and black jacket stands in a bathroom while holding a coffee mug .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a man drinks beer from a coffee mug
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a man drinks beer from a coffee mug
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that there are other people in the bathroom with the man .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that there are other people in the bathroom with the man .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the man is waiting to go to the bathroom .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the man is waiting to go to the bathroom .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a person stands in a bathroom and drinks coffee .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a person stands in a bathroom and drinks coffee .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man is holding a coffee mug with soup in it .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a man is holding a coffee mug with soup in it .