Premise: A man wearing a yellow vest and gray fisherman 's cap is sitting in a red chair along with another similarly dressed man in a red chair next to him .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that two men are fishing .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that two men are fishing .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man is wearing a light yellow vest .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man is wearing a light yellow vest .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the men are waiting for their friend and then they are going fishing .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the men are waiting for their friend and then they are going fishing .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that an old man sitting in a chair on his porch .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that an old man sitting in a chair on his porch .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the two men are fishing .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the two men are fishing .