Premise: A girl stands on a pier as a ferry comes in .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that there is a girl in a red dress standing on the pier .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that there is a girl in a red dress standing on the pier .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that girl sitting on pier
Incorrect statement: We believe that girl sitting on pier
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the girl is leaving an island .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the girl is leaving an island .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the girl is outside waiting on a ferry .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that the girl is outside waiting on a ferry .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the woman is patiently waiting for her ferry ride across the channel .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that the woman is patiently waiting for her ferry ride across the channel .