Premise: A man on a motorcycle with no shirt on at a bike event .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man took off his shirt at a nudist bike event .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a man took off his shirt at a nudist bike event .
Correct statement: We believe that a man riding a motorcycle .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that a man riding a motorcycle .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a man is riding on a motorcyle without a shirt .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a man is riding on a motorcyle without a shirt .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man is doing a wheelie on his motorcycle .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man is doing a wheelie on his motorcycle .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a guy lost his shirt on his way to the bike event .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a guy lost his shirt on his way to the bike event .