Premise: The water is very clear .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the water is clear and cold
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the water is clear and cold
Correct statement: We doubt that you can see the bottom of the ocean with ease .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that you can see the bottom of the ocean with ease .
Correct statement: It is probable that the water is clean and drinkable .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the water is clean and drinkable .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that every morning the water is clear on the lake
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that every morning the water is clear on the lake
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the water is from a lake .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the water is from a lake .