Premise: A man in a black shirt and baseball cap picking up trash in an empty lot .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man is forced to pick up trash for robbing the nearby store
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a man is forced to pick up trash for robbing the nearby store
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man is picking up trash because he has community service .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a man is picking up trash because he has community service .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man cleaning up after a baseball game .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a man cleaning up after a baseball game .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the man picking up trash in an empty lot is my dad .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the man picking up trash in an empty lot is my dad .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a trash man picking up garbage .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a trash man picking up garbage .