Premise: A man dives into a clear blue lake .
Correct statement: We doubt that it is warm outside .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that it is warm outside .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man tries to dive to the bottom of the lake
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a man tries to dive to the bottom of the lake
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the man is a professional swimmer .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that the man is a professional swimmer .
Correct statement: It is likely that a man dives into a deep lake .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man dives into a deep lake .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man dives in to water to race a friend .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a man dives in to water to race a friend .