Premise: A man in a black hat sits by a tree and plays guitar .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man has a clean black hat .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a man has a clean black hat .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the man is singing a gospel song .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that the man is singing a gospel song .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the man is Asian .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the man is Asian .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a teenaged boy is making up music for his band .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a teenaged boy is making up music for his band .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that a man is wearing a black hat .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that a man is wearing a black hat .