Premise: a brown dog plays with the hose .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the dog is getting a bath .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the dog is getting a bath .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the dog is playing in the backyard of his master 's house .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the dog is playing in the backyard of his master 's house .
Correct statement: It is improbable that a dog is playing with a running hose .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a dog is playing with a running hose .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the dog is running through water .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that the dog is running through water .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a puppy is playing in the water .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a puppy is playing in the water .