Premise: The photographer is holding up a disc that has an image on it that looks similar to the gentleman he is taking a picture of .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a photographer is taking a picture of a man for his daughter .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a photographer is taking a picture of a man for his daughter .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man making a movie
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that a man making a movie
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a young man gets his senior picture taken .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a young man gets his senior picture taken .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man holding a disk that has an image of an old man on it .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a man holding a disk that has an image of an old man on it .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the photographer is reviewing a photo he just took a picture of .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that the photographer is reviewing a photo he just took a picture of .