Premise: Two children , one of which is holding a stick , are standing on the beach as the sun begins to set .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that one is holding a sand bucket .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that one is holding a sand bucket .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that two children are playing on the beach .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that two children are playing on the beach .
Correct statement: It is likely that two children are looking out over the ocean .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that two children are looking out over the ocean .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the twins are playing stickball .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the twins are playing stickball .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that two kids prepare to toast marshmallows over a fire on the beach .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that two kids prepare to toast marshmallows over a fire on the beach .