Premise: A group of people stand in a fancily decorated room .
Correct statement: We doubt that a tour group is looking at one of the rooms of a fancy estate .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a tour group is looking at one of the rooms of a fancy estate .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the group of people are family .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the group of people are family .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that some kids are staying inside the house .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that some kids are staying inside the house .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that some people are visiting a castle .
Incorrect statement: We believe that some people are visiting a castle .
Correct statement: It is likely that a group of people happily stand .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a group of people happily stand .