Premise: A surfer is riding a wave .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a woman is riding the waves to the shore .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a woman is riding the waves to the shore .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a surfer is in Laguna Beach .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a surfer is in Laguna Beach .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the surfer can swim .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that the surfer can swim .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the person is on a wave on a surf board .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that the person is on a wave on a surf board .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man is on a wave .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a man is on a wave .