Premise: A guy wearing all black at a bowling alley standing in front of a lane with a black bowling ball in it .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that the man is playing a game of bowling .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the man is playing a game of bowling .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the man likes to bowl .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the man likes to bowl .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the guy just rolled a ball and is watching the outcome of his roll .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the guy just rolled a ball and is watching the outcome of his roll .
Correct statement: We doubt that a man wearing all black is about to bowl a perfect game .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a man wearing all black is about to bowl a perfect game .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man throws a gutter ball at the bowling alley .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a man throws a gutter ball at the bowling alley .