Premise: A woman in a black shirt holding a cherry pie on top of her head , the pie is still in the baking dish .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a woman is baking for a bake sale .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a woman is baking for a bake sale .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the woman has baked a cherry pie .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the woman has baked a cherry pie .
Correct statement: We doubt that a woman has a clean black shirt .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a woman has a clean black shirt .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a woman is hold a desert over her head .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a woman is hold a desert over her head .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the woman is trying to balance the pie on her head to impress others .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the woman is trying to balance the pie on her head to impress others .