Premise: A man locking his bicycle to a metal pole .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that a person on a city street with overhead lighting .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that a person on a city street with overhead lighting .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a man locked his bicycle to a stop sign pole .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a man locked his bicycle to a stop sign pole .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the man is securing the bike because it is expensive .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the man is securing the bike because it is expensive .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the man had his last bike stolen , so no he is careful .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the man had his last bike stolen , so no he is careful .
Correct statement: It is likely that the man is wearing a helmet .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the man is wearing a helmet .