Premise: A man with an arm cast films something on video while another man is looking at the camera .
Correct statement: We believe that the man is taking a picture of the other man .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that the man is taking a picture of the other man .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man films a video of a dog walking down the sidewalk while another man watches .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a man films a video of a dog walking down the sidewalk while another man watches .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a movie director films an actor .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a movie director films an actor .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that there are two actors working on the set of a movie .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that there are two actors working on the set of a movie .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a young man filming a deer on the side of the road .
Incorrect statement: We believe that a young man filming a deer on the side of the road .