Premise: a young girl wearing a bulky red life jacket floating in a lake .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a girl floats in the lake by a boat .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a girl floats in the lake by a boat .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a young girl is floating by a boat .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a young girl is floating by a boat .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a scared girl approaches water
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a scared girl approaches water
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a girl is being taught to swim in a lake .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a girl is being taught to swim in a lake .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the girl is getting a suntan in the lake .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that the girl is getting a suntan in the lake .