Premise: A person in a hard hat is doing some work on a train track .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that there is a person working to fix a broken part of a train track .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that there is a person working to fix a broken part of a train track .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a construction worker builds a new mountain railroad .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a construction worker builds a new mountain railroad .
Correct statement: It is probable that a person is fixing a flattened track .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a person is fixing a flattened track .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a tall human in a hat .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a tall human in a hat .
Correct statement: It is certain that a being with a hat is on the train tracks
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a being with a hat is on the train tracks