Premise: A makeup artist wearing pink and white face paint and yarn wig is applying face-paint to a young child .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the child has on pink makeup .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the child has on pink makeup .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a makeup artist in wearing makeup and painting the face of a young child so she can impress her friends .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a makeup artist in wearing makeup and painting the face of a young child so she can impress her friends .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a makeup artist has light pink and white face paint .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a makeup artist has light pink and white face paint .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a makeup artist works at a fair .
Incorrect statement: We believe that a makeup artist works at a fair .
Correct statement: We doubt that a young child is secretly unhappy about the face paint .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a young child is secretly unhappy about the face paint .