Premise: A man is climbing on a metal support in the bleachers of a large arena , at a crowded sporting event .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a fan is trying to get to a ball that got stuck
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a fan is trying to get to a ball that got stuck
Correct statement: We believe that the man is going to watch the game .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that the man is going to watch the game .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that the man is looking for his seat in the bleachers .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the man is looking for his seat in the bleachers .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a mad bomber climbs under the bleachers to place his bomb .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that a mad bomber climbs under the bleachers to place his bomb .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a person in the large arena is climbing on a support beam amongst the many thousands of people .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a person in the large arena is climbing on a support beam amongst the many thousands of people .