Premise: A child plays on the ground in a pile of leaves .
Correct statement: There is little chance that a blond girl is playing under the tree .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that a blond girl is playing under the tree .
Correct statement: We believe that a child plays in the fall
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a child plays in the fall
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a child jumps in a pile of leaves .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a child jumps in a pile of leaves .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the child is a boy
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the child is a boy
Correct statement: Chances are slight that a child just raked the leaves
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that a child just raked the leaves