Premise: A contestant riding a pony in a rodeo setting is being thrown by the horse , while another cowboy looks on in the arena and spectators watch from behind a fence .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that in a rodeo , a cowboy is being thrown by a horse as another cowboy and spectators watch .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that in a rodeo , a cowboy is being thrown by a horse as another cowboy and spectators watch .