Premise: A bald white man wearing an apron dines alone at a restaurant table , set with a full meal and a bottle of wine .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a man dines on spaghetti and wine .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a man dines on spaghetti and wine .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a businessman worked late at the office and is now eating an evening meal at his favorite restaurant .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a businessman worked late at the office and is now eating an evening meal at his favorite restaurant .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a bald white man is eating out for dinner to celebrate his birthday .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a bald white man is eating out for dinner to celebrate his birthday .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a bald man has been stood up for a date .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a bald man has been stood up for a date .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a food critic inside a fine restaurant .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a food critic inside a fine restaurant .