Premise: A black dog in shallow water .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that a dog is wet from being in a bit of water .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a dog is wet from being in a bit of water .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a dog splashes in shallow water after becoming overheated .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a dog splashes in shallow water after becoming overheated .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a dog is wading across a small creek .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a dog is wading across a small creek .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a dog is in a wading pool
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a dog is in a wading pool
Correct statement: We doubt that a puppy is learning to swim .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a puppy is learning to swim .