Premise: A hooded man with a beard is walking up concrete steps carrying a red bag as a policeman stares out at the water threatening to invade the steps .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a police officer is concerned for a man climbing the steps near raging water .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a police officer is concerned for a man climbing the steps near raging water .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a man is about to be arrested by a police officer .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a man is about to be arrested by a police officer .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man with a mask on is carrying a bag .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a man with a mask on is carrying a bag .
Correct statement: There is little chance that the policeman thinks the man is going to break the law .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the policeman thinks the man is going to break the law .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that hooded man makes his way up to a shelter while a policeman worries about them being trapped .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that hooded man makes his way up to a shelter while a policeman worries about them being trapped .