Premise: There is a reflection near the bear 's feet indicating there is water .
Correct statement: It is certain that something is glimmering in front of a large creature .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that something is glimmering in front of a large creature .
Correct statement: It is probable that the bear is brown colored .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the bear is brown colored .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the animal is hunting fish .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the animal is hunting fish .
Correct statement: It is certain that the bear is outside
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the bear is outside
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that the bear is standing in the water .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the bear is standing in the water .