Premise: An old man dressed in med-evil clothing holds an axe while standing on a hill .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the man is going to cut down a tree .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the man is going to cut down a tree .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that a man is going to a renasance fair .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a man is going to a renasance fair .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a man cosplays in medievil fashion .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that a man cosplays in medievil fashion .
Correct statement: There is little chance that an old man is dressed in a black med-evil cloak and is holding an ax above his head while standing on a hill .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that an old man is dressed in a black med-evil cloak and is holding an ax above his head while standing on a hill .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man dressed up for a Renaissance Fair .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man dressed up for a Renaissance Fair .