Premise: A horse pulls a wagon with a bale of hay on top , while a man sits on top of the bale with his hand in the air .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the horse is brown .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that the horse is brown .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man wears a hat .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a man wears a hat .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the man owns the wagon
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the man owns the wagon
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man points .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a man points .
Correct statement: We doubt that the horse pulling the wagon is black .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that the horse pulling the wagon is black .