Premise: A man in a black shirt and cap playing piano .
Correct statement: It is impossible that there is a man playing the saxophone in the band .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that there is a man playing the saxophone in the band .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a black man , wearing a black shirt and cap playing the piano .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that a black man , wearing a black shirt and cap playing the piano .
Correct statement: It is certain that a man is playing the piano .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a man is playing the piano .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a man plays jazz piano in a dark bar .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a man plays jazz piano in a dark bar .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a musician in a black shirt and tie is playing the piano .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a musician in a black shirt and tie is playing the piano .