Premise: A crowd of people is walking through a parking lot at night .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a group of people are going to their cars
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a group of people are going to their cars
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a crowd of people walk through a parking lot on their way home from a bar .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a crowd of people walk through a parking lot on their way home from a bar .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that it is a cold night .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that it is a cold night .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the sports fans are exiting the stadium and heading toward their vehicles .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that the sports fans are exiting the stadium and heading toward their vehicles .
Correct statement: There is little chance that there are people figuring out where to go .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that there are people figuring out where to go .