Premise: White male squirting lighter fluid on charcoal grill coals while drinking a beer and smoking a cigarette in the woods .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that a man is grilling outside .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man is grilling outside .
Correct statement: There is little chance that man destroying evidence in the woods .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that man destroying evidence in the woods .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that there is a man camping .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that there is a man camping .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the man is a farmer
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the man is a farmer
Correct statement: We believe that a man is preparing campfood .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a man is preparing campfood .