Premise: A child poses in the snow holding a partially formed piece of snow .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a child making a snowman .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a child making a snowman .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a child about to start a snowball fight .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a child about to start a snowball fight .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that someone is photographing a child outdoors .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that someone is photographing a child outdoors .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a child is making a snowman .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a child is making a snowman .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a blonde person posing
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a blonde person posing