Premise: A woman in yellow and red smoking a cigarette and walking down the street with a shopping bag .
Correct statement: We believe that a woman smoking a cigarette walks down the street with a shopping bag full of groceries .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a woman smoking a cigarette walks down the street with a shopping bag full of groceries .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a woman smokes a marlboro while strolling in the shopping district .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a woman smokes a marlboro while strolling in the shopping district .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a homeless woman enjoys a cigarette while carrying all of her possessions in a shopping bag .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a homeless woman enjoys a cigarette while carrying all of her possessions in a shopping bag .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a woman has been shopping .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a woman has been shopping .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the woman has clothes in her shopping bag .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the woman has clothes in her shopping bag .