Premise: A cloudy but well-populated beach with a woman in a white gown with a basket walking past .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a cloudy but well-populated beach has a woman in a light white gown .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a cloudy but well-populated beach has a woman in a light white gown .
Correct statement: We believe that the woman is having a picnic on the beach .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the woman is having a picnic on the beach .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the lady is carrying fruit in her basket .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the lady is carrying fruit in her basket .
Correct statement: We doubt that the woman with a basket is getting ready to leave the beach .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the woman with a basket is getting ready to leave the beach .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that everyone is at the beach for a party .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that everyone is at the beach for a party .