Premise: A man with a red and gold costume is standing in a street smoking a cigarette .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man was smoking during his lunch break .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a man was smoking during his lunch break .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the man is going to his first cosplay festival .
Incorrect statement: We believe that the man is going to his first cosplay festival .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man is taking a break from his show as a performer .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a man is taking a break from his show as a performer .
Correct statement: It is certain that the man is outside .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that the man is outside .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man is on his smoke break .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man is on his smoke break .