Premise: A single man in a black t-shirt standing above the crowd at a busy bar .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a young man drinks at a busy bar
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a young man drinks at a busy bar
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the man is serving the customers .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the man is serving the customers .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the man is having a drink at the pub .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the man is having a drink at the pub .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man in a black shirt is making a toast .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man in a black shirt is making a toast .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that the man is not drinking because he is security for the bar .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the man is not drinking because he is security for the bar .