Premise: An old man tying a net for fishing .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man is tying a net to catch fish for his dinner .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a man is tying a net to catch fish for his dinner .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the man catches lots of fish .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the man catches lots of fish .
Correct statement: There is little chance that an old man ties a net to catch crabs .
Incorrect statement: We believe that an old man ties a net to catch crabs .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a person is sitting in a boat .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a person is sitting in a boat .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that an old man is on vacation .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that an old man is on vacation .