Premise: A smiling man with a beard holds up a poster showing an abstract elephant cartoon painted in horizontal rainbow stripes .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a guy holds up an elephant cartoon so that people can see it .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a guy holds up an elephant cartoon so that people can see it .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man shows a poster to a kindergarten class .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a man shows a poster to a kindergarten class .
Correct statement: We believe that the smiling man with a beard painted the poster .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the smiling man with a beard painted the poster .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the elephant is wielding a stick .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the elephant is wielding a stick .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the poster was painted by a child .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that the poster was painted by a child .