Premise: A brown boat is packed with goods and people .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the boat is on a river .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that the boat is on a river .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the goods are smuggled drugs
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the goods are smuggled drugs
Correct statement: It is certain that the people are traveling in the brown boat .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that the people are traveling in the brown boat .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a boat is carrying cargo to shore
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a boat is carrying cargo to shore
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a boat is carrying firewords .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a boat is carrying firewords .