Premise: A guy in a huge wooden tub while people are looking over .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that there is water in the wooden tub .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that there is water in the wooden tub .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the man is naked .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the man is naked .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the man is going to take a bath .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the man is going to take a bath .
Correct statement: It is certain that they saw the guy .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that they saw the guy .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that people spying on a naked man .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that people spying on a naked man .