Premise: A young boy in a black jacket is running towards a woman with outstretched arms .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a young boy in a jacket is running towards his grandmother with outstretched arms
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a young boy in a jacket is running towards his grandmother with outstretched arms
Correct statement: We believe that a young boy runs to his mother for a hug .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a young boy runs to his mother for a hug .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a son is running to his mother at an airport
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a son is running to his mother at an airport
Correct statement: We believe that the young boy is the woman 's son .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the young boy is the woman 's son .
Correct statement: We believe that the woman with outstretched arms is the young boy 's mother .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the woman with outstretched arms is the young boy 's mother .