Premise: An elderly woman wearing a black coat and a green scarf , looks at her watch as a man is looking at her with his mouth open .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that woman looks at her expensive watch while her husband yawns .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that woman looks at her expensive watch while her husband yawns .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man in a suit gapes at an old woman .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a man in a suit gapes at an old woman .
Correct statement: It is improbable that an elderly woman wearing a black coat and green scarf checks her watch as her husband stands nearby in shock at how late she is running for their meeting .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that an elderly woman wearing a black coat and green scarf checks her watch as her husband stands nearby in shock at how late she is running for their meeting .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the elderly woman has a smartphone in her coat pocket .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the elderly woman has a smartphone in her coat pocket .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the old lady is bundled up and will soon go home
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the old lady is bundled up and will soon go home