Premise: A band plays bathed in stage lights .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the band is performing on an indoor stage .
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that the band is performing on an indoor stage .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a band plays rock and roll music under stage lights .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a band plays rock and roll music under stage lights .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a band is playing to their first sold out crowd .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a band is playing to their first sold out crowd .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the band is rehearsing
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the band is rehearsing
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a band is at a huge festival playing music .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a band is at a huge festival playing music .