Premise: A man in a blue shirt gesticulates as he speaks to a uniformed official .
Correct statement: We believe that a person is talking to a police officer .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a person is talking to a police officer .
Correct statement: We doubt that the man is receiving a traffic ticket .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that the man is receiving a traffic ticket .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a man is yelling at an actor .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a man is yelling at an actor .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man flails his arms wildly as he speaks .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man flails his arms wildly as he speaks .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that a man is arguing with an official .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that a man is arguing with an official .