Premise: A young boy jumps in a swimming pool towards a bald man in the water .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a boy jumps toward the arms of his father in the pool below
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a boy jumps toward the arms of his father in the pool below
Correct statement: It is likely that a boy jumps in a pool towards his father .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a boy jumps in a pool towards his father .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that the boy is jumping to catch the old man .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the boy is jumping to catch the old man .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that the man is wearing swim trunks .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the man is wearing swim trunks .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that a young boy is wearing swimming shorts .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a young boy is wearing swimming shorts .