Premise: A man is smoking at sunset .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man smoking a cigarette .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a man smoking a cigarette .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the man is white
Incorrect statement: It is probable that the man is white
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man is smoking a cigarette at sunset .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a man is smoking a cigarette at sunset .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that a man is smoking a cigar on his porch .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a man is smoking a cigar on his porch .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the man is smoking a Camel Crush .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that the man is smoking a Camel Crush .