Premise: People are at a party at night .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a group is partying at night for the 4th of july
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a group is partying at night for the 4th of july
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a bonfire party brought in a large group of people .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a bonfire party brought in a large group of people .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the people are at a house party .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the people are at a house party .
Correct statement: We believe that people a drinking and playing games
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that people a drinking and playing games
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that someone is having a birthday party
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that someone is having a birthday party