Premise: A young boy in swimming trunks holds a blue pail and a bright green shovel on a sandy beach .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a young boy is going to make a sand castle .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a young boy is going to make a sand castle .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a young boy is planning to build a sandcastle
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a young boy is planning to build a sandcastle
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that there is a boy holding toys
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that there is a boy holding toys
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the little boy is by the water .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the little boy is by the water .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the boy is going to build a sandcastle .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that the boy is going to build a sandcastle .