Premise: A man in a green shirt holds a rolling pin while smoking a cigarette in a cluttered kitchen .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the man is cooking dinner .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the man is cooking dinner .
Correct statement: We believe that a man is about to roll some dough .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a man is about to roll some dough .
Correct statement: We believe that a man is baking .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man is baking .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a tall man in a green shirt .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a tall man in a green shirt .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man is smoking while cooking .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a man is smoking while cooking .