Premise: A female is wearing a big purple flower in her hair and has some beads around her neck .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a female is at an outdoor festival and wearing flowers in her hair and beads on her neck .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a female is at an outdoor festival and wearing flowers in her hair and beads on her neck .
Correct statement: It is improbable that a girl in New Orleans , with red hair and a hooped skirt , is getting ready for a Marti Gras parade .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a girl in New Orleans , with red hair and a hooped skirt , is getting ready for a Marti Gras parade .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the girl is pretty
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the girl is pretty
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the female is dressed nicely for a dance .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the female is dressed nicely for a dance .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a woman is headed to a meeting of other women .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a woman is headed to a meeting of other women .