Premise: In a martial arts demonstration a man with two swords faces a woman with a Chinese spear .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the man with two swords is a black belt .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the man with two swords is a black belt .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the woman beats up a man
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the woman beats up a man
Correct statement: It is highly likely that two people are fighting
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that two people are fighting
Correct statement: It is impossible that the woman is watching .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the woman is watching .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that a martial arts demonstration is showing off Chinese weaponry .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a martial arts demonstration is showing off Chinese weaponry .