Premise: A man talking on a cellphone smiles while walking in front of a large group of people in the city .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the man is visiting the city for the first time , and he is excited .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that the man is visiting the city for the first time , and he is excited .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a man laughs while talking on his cell phone .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a man laughs while talking on his cell phone .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that people are watching the man walk by .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that people are watching the man walk by .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man is smiling because he got a raise .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a man is smiling because he got a raise .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man on his iPhone smiles while walking in a city .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a man on his iPhone smiles while walking in a city .