Premise: A man in water throwing a little boy up in the air and waiting for him to come down so he can catch him .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man is throwing and catching his nephew .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a man is throwing and catching his nephew .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man playing with his son in hotel pool .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a man playing with his son in hotel pool .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man in blue swimming trunks is throwing a boy .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a man in blue swimming trunks is throwing a boy .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a father plays with his son in the lake at the park .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a father plays with his son in the lake at the park .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a man is playing with his son .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that a man is playing with his son .