Premise: A man in a black shirt and a cast smokes a cigarette .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a man smoking a cigarette waiting for someone
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a man smoking a cigarette waiting for someone
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man is smoking outside .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man is smoking outside .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a waiter in a black shirt blows out smoke from his cigarette .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a waiter in a black shirt blows out smoke from his cigarette .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that a man in a cast and a black shirt is holding a lit cigarrette .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a man in a cast and a black shirt is holding a lit cigarrette .
Correct statement: It is probable that a man taking a smoke break .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that a man taking a smoke break .