Premise: Four men are sitting near a tree talking while another stands looking at a body of water and another is rowing a boat .
Correct statement: It is probable that one man rows a boat towards shore while another man looks on .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that one man rows a boat towards shore while another man looks on .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that four men are having a picnic .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that four men are having a picnic .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that there is a man on the lake fishing while others watch .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that there is a man on the lake fishing while others watch .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a group of men are having a picnic outside .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that a group of men are having a picnic outside .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that six men are enjoying themselves in nature .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that six men are enjoying themselves in nature .