Premise: The mountain biker in blue rides down a rocky path .
Correct statement: It is certain that a man is riding a bike .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a man is riding a bike .
Correct statement: We believe that the mountain biker is riding down a rocky path on a sunny day .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the mountain biker is riding down a rocky path on a sunny day .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a mountain biker in blue is in a race on a rocky path .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a mountain biker in blue is in a race on a rocky path .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a mountain biker is competing in a downhill race .
Incorrect statement: We believe that a mountain biker is competing in a downhill race .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that a person rides their bike down a mountain trail .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a person rides their bike down a mountain trail .