Premise: A kayaker in whitewater rapids between two rocks , and a bystander on a rocky shore watching .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that a kayaker is in rough waters when a bystander watches .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a kayaker is in rough waters when a bystander watches .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man watches as his wife has trouble on the rapids .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a man watches as his wife has trouble on the rapids .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that there is a kayaker in whitewater rapids between two rocks struggling .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that there is a kayaker in whitewater rapids between two rocks struggling .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the kayaker in redwater
Incorrect statement: It is likely that the kayaker in redwater
Correct statement: It is impossible that the rapids were full of debris .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the rapids were full of debris .