Premise: A man in a leather apron who appears to be a blacksmith holds up a glowing hot piece of iron which he is working on with the hammer in his right hand , the forge fire conspicuous in the background .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a blacksmith is making a sword
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a blacksmith is making a sword
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man is forging a sword for the elves .
Incorrect statement: We believe that a man is forging a sword for the elves .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a man is making a tool .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man is making a tool .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a man in a leather apron is forging metals is obviously a blacksmith .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man in a leather apron is forging metals is obviously a blacksmith .
Correct statement: It is probable that a blacksmith works on some iron
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a blacksmith works on some iron