Premise: A crowd of black people are gathered and one person has a backpack on .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that there is a large group of black people standing together and one has an orange backpack hanging off one shoulder .
Incorrect statement: It is likely that there is a large group of black people standing together and one has an orange backpack hanging off one shoulder .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a person has a weapon in a backpack in a crowd of black people .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a person has a weapon in a backpack in a crowd of black people .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a crowd of black women are gathered .
Incorrect statement: We believe that a crowd of black women are gathered .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that the lone backpacker has just come from class .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the lone backpacker has just come from class .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a crowd of teenage black people are waiting for the school to open and one of them has a backpack .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a crowd of teenage black people are waiting for the school to open and one of them has a backpack .