Premise: Five people stand on a bridge while one of the people , a balding man in a brown shirt and jeans , points away from the bridge .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a group of people are bird watching together
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a group of people are bird watching together
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a man is trying to show something to the group of people he is standing on a bridge with ,
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a man is trying to show something to the group of people he is standing on a bridge with ,
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that 4 people are standing on a bridge looking out over the water. one person turns around to look at the car
Incorrect statement: It is certain that 4 people are standing on a bridge looking out over the water. one person turns around to look at the car
Correct statement: There is little chance that the man points at a bird flying by .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the man points at a bird flying by .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the balding man is compensenating with an ugly beard .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that the balding man is compensenating with an ugly beard .