Premise: A young girl dressed in white with a pink scarf smiles as she poses next to a fire in a chimney .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a young girl prepares for her photo to be taken .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a young girl prepares for her photo to be taken .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the young girl is taking a Christmas photo near the fireplace .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that the young girl is taking a Christmas photo near the fireplace .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a kid poses near a chimney on Christmas .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a kid poses near a chimney on Christmas .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the girl 's parents are taking their annual Christmas pictures next to the roaring fire Christmas Eve .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that the girl 's parents are taking their annual Christmas pictures next to the roaring fire Christmas Eve .
Correct statement: It is improbable that a young girl poses as her boyfriend takes her picture .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a young girl poses as her boyfriend takes her picture .