Premise: A man speaking at a conference .
Correct statement: It is probable that a professor is giving a presentation at an academic retreat .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a professor is giving a presentation at an academic retreat .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the man is wearing black shoes .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the man is wearing black shoes .
Correct statement: It is probable that a man is holding a microphone .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man is holding a microphone .
Correct statement: It is certain that the man is at a conference .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that the man is at a conference .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the man speaks at the conference to a large crowd of young adults .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the man speaks at the conference to a large crowd of young adults .