Premise: a motorcycle is parked next to the road with four people surrounding it .
Correct statement: It is certain that the people are looking at the motorcycle .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the people are looking at the motorcycle .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that a group of people consider stealing a motorcycle
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a group of people consider stealing a motorcycle
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that four people wash and wax the motorcycle parked outdoors
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that four people wash and wax the motorcycle parked outdoors
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that they are wearing biking gear
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that they are wearing biking gear
Correct statement: It is impossible that a black motorcycle is being stolen by four people .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a black motorcycle is being stolen by four people .