Premise: A child jumping into a lake in a wooded area while another child plays on the shore .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the children are friends
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the children are friends
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a child is swimming in the lake .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a child is swimming in the lake .
Correct statement: We doubt that one of the children jumps into the lake with his clothes on .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that one of the children jumps into the lake with his clothes on .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that two children are on vacation .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that two children are on vacation .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the lake is clear
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that the lake is clear