Premise: man in a boat looking at a disaster .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that the boat is in water .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that the boat is in water .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the man is looking at a shipwreck .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the man is looking at a shipwreck .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the man is sailing
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that the man is sailing
Correct statement: There is little chance that the man is in a boat on the ocean .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the man is in a boat on the ocean .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that a man in a boat looking at a crash .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that a man in a boat looking at a crash .