Premise: A boy in a striped blue shirt and gray pants , holding a blue scooter , is looking across a river .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a boy is trying to cross a river .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a boy is trying to cross a river .
Correct statement: We believe that a boy is playing near a river .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a boy is playing near a river .
Correct statement: Chances are slight that the boy stole a scooter from kids on the other side of the river .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the boy stole a scooter from kids on the other side of the river .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a boy is throwing rocks in a ricker .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a boy is throwing rocks in a ricker .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a boy is looking across the river at his house .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a boy is looking across the river at his house .