Premise: A man in a black jacket holds a red , yellow and purple flag .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a soccer coach is wearing a black jacket .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a soccer coach is wearing a black jacket .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that the man is showing his patriotic pride .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the man is showing his patriotic pride .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that it is almost too cold for this man to continue flag waving .
Incorrect statement: We believe that it is almost too cold for this man to continue flag waving .
Correct statement: It is certain that the man has hands
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that the man has hands
Correct statement: Chances are about even that it is cold outside .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that it is cold outside .