Premise: Man standing on a rock ledge over a body of water the sky and water are blue and meet at the horizon .
Correct statement: It is probable that man contemplates life
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that man contemplates life
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the ledge is over a big ocean .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the ledge is over a big ocean .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a man is preparing to dive into the ocean .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a man is preparing to dive into the ocean .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the man is contemplating jumping .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the man is contemplating jumping .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a man stands on a ledge during sunset .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a man stands on a ledge during sunset .