Premise: A dog is in the water .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a dog is in water fetching a stick .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a dog is in water fetching a stick .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a dog plays in the sea
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a dog plays in the sea
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the dog jumped into the lake .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the dog jumped into the lake .
Correct statement: It is certain that the dog has fur .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the dog has fur .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a dog is swimming in a pool .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that a dog is swimming in a pool .