Premise: A woman rides a horse near a frozen lake in the winter time .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the woman is a horse trainer .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that the woman is a horse trainer .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a woman is riding through a pasture on a cold January day .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a woman is riding through a pasture on a cold January day .
Correct statement: It is probable that the horse is tired from the cold weather .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that the horse is tired from the cold weather .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the horse that the woman is riding near the lake is brown and white .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the horse that the woman is riding near the lake is brown and white .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the horse is a purebred Scottsdale .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that the horse is a purebred Scottsdale .