Premise: Two young children playing outside .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that they are brother and sister .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that they are brother and sister .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that two children play tag outside .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that two children play tag outside .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that two kids are flying a kite outside .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that two kids are flying a kite outside .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that two kids were good friends and played together .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that two kids were good friends and played together .
Correct statement: We doubt that several children are playing a game in the field .
Incorrect statement: We believe that several children are playing a game in the field .