Premise: A very colorful bus is pulled off to the side of the road as its passengers load .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that they may be school children .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that they may be school children .
Correct statement: We doubt that the bus is dropping off school children .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that the bus is dropping off school children .
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a stopped bus is picking people up .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a stopped bus is picking people up .
Correct statement: We doubt that people are on their way to a concert .
Incorrect statement: It is probably the case that people are on their way to a concert .
Correct statement: We believe that the tour bus pulled over to let people on .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that the tour bus pulled over to let people on .