Premise: A man dressed in black is sitting on a seat in the subway station that has an opened black umbrella laying on the ground .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man throws his umbrella away after he decides he does n't need it any more .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that a man throws his umbrella away after he decides he does n't need it any more .
Correct statement: We believe that a man is wearing black in a subway station waiting for a train home .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man is wearing black in a subway station waiting for a train home .
Correct statement: We believe that the umbrella is wet , and is drying out .
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that the umbrella is wet , and is drying out .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that the man 's going to a funeral .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the man 's going to a funeral .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that the man is waiting for the subway .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that the man is waiting for the subway .