Premise: A festival is going on right outside a lake , with several drummers in red shirts and a man on stilts playing the drums .
Correct statement: It is certain that a man on stilts plays an instrument for people at a lake
Incorrect statement: We doubt that a man on stilts plays an instrument for people at a lake
Correct statement: It is probable that a big crowd is watching the drummers play at a festival .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that a big crowd is watching the drummers play at a festival .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a man on stilts in a top hat is playing the drums .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a man on stilts in a top hat is playing the drums .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man on stilts is leading a group of drummers .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a man on stilts is leading a group of drummers .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that the steel drummers entertain the crowd .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that the steel drummers entertain the crowd .