Premise: A young man is presenting another woman with a cake with three candles on top .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the man is celebrating the woman 's birthday .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the man is celebrating the woman 's birthday .
Correct statement: It is probable that a man has given a woman a birthday cake .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a man has given a woman a birthday cake .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a guy is giving a girl a birthday cake .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a guy is giving a girl a birthday cake .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a young man is presenting another woman a cake with three candles and is going to sing happy birthday .
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that a young man is presenting another woman a cake with three candles and is going to sing happy birthday .
Correct statement: It is highly unlikely that the cake has white frosting .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that the cake has white frosting .