Premise: A few people sit out on rocks overlooking the water below .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the water below is a lake .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the water below is a lake .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that the people are near the ocean .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that the people are near the ocean .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a few people stranded overlook the water
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that a few people stranded overlook the water
Correct statement: It is impossible that people are on vacation .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that people are on vacation .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the water is calm .
Incorrect statement: There is a better than even chance that the water is calm .