Premise: The ripples in the water reflect the sunlight .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that the sun is bouncing off the water .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that the sun is bouncing off the water .
Correct statement: It is highly likely that the lake ripples in the sunlight .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the lake ripples in the sunlight .
Correct statement: It is probable that something disturbed the water which caused it to ripple
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that something disturbed the water which caused it to ripple
Correct statement: It is probable that the ripples are very large in nature .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that the ripples are very large in nature .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a frog caused ripples in the water .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that a frog caused ripples in the water .