Premise: Two people are carrying a large bag filled with a red substance down a ally as a figure in red walks behind them .
Correct statement: It is likely that two men are carrying a gym bag filled with jelly down an ally as a woman in red follows .
Incorrect statement: There is little chance that two men are carrying a gym bag filled with jelly down an ally as a woman in red follows .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that two men are carrying bags filled with blood , as a person in red follows them .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that two men are carrying bags filled with blood , as a person in red follows them .
Correct statement: It is impossible that the large bag holds 10 gallons of liquid .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the large bag holds 10 gallons of liquid .
Correct statement: It is impossible that two people carry a bag full of human remains down an alley .
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that two people carry a bag full of human remains down an alley .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the red substance is strawberry jam .
Incorrect statement: We doubt that the red substance is strawberry jam .