Premise: A man wearing two hats , jeans , and a long-sleeved shirt manipulating a camera in the middle of a desert .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a man is dressed up for great photography in the desert .
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a man is dressed up for great photography in the desert .
Correct statement: It is likely that a man is taking a picture of a cactus .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that a man is taking a picture of a cactus .
Correct statement: It is impossible that a man is filming the desert sun set
Incorrect statement: It is certain that a man is filming the desert sun set
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that he is a cameraman filming
Incorrect statement: It is impossible that he is a cameraman filming
Correct statement: There is a very good chance that a man is dressing up for silly photos
Incorrect statement: It is unlikely that a man is dressing up for silly photos