Premise: A man with a red jacket is shielding himself from the sun trying to read a piece of paper .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the man is trying to read his map .
Incorrect statement: It is highly unlikely that the man is trying to read his map .
Correct statement: It is unlikely that a man is looking for a building address he scribbed on a piece of paper .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a man is looking for a building address he scribbed on a piece of paper .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a guy is sitting on a park bench reading a newspaper .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a guy is sitting on a park bench reading a newspaper .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a man is trying to read the newspaper .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a man is trying to read the newspaper .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that a man outside with reading a map .
Incorrect statement: It is improbable that a man outside with reading a map .