Premise: A black person in a white shirt and headscarf is plowing a field behind two yoked cattle , one tan and one dark brown , with blue-painted horns .
Correct statement: It is certain that the man is a farmer
Incorrect statement: Chances are about even that the man is a farmer
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a slave is plowing a field .
Incorrect statement: It is probable that a slave is plowing a field .
Correct statement: There is almost no chance that a slave is working for his master .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a slave is working for his master .
Correct statement: It is probably not the case that a person is plowing the field to plant the spring crops .
Incorrect statement: There is a very good chance that a person is plowing the field to plant the spring crops .
Correct statement: We doubt that a black person in a white shirt is using two cattle to create an irrigation ditch
Incorrect statement: It is highly likely that a black person in a white shirt is using two cattle to create an irrigation ditch