Premise: A large crowd of people walk , casually , across an elevated road or bridge .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that a tour group crosses a bridge .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that a tour group crosses a bridge .
Correct statement: It is probably the case that the people have their cellphones out .
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that the people have their cellphones out .
Correct statement: Chances are about even that the group of people are taking a tour .
Incorrect statement: It is almost certain that the group of people are taking a tour .
Correct statement: There is a better than even chance that there are people walking near cars .
Incorrect statement: There is almost no chance that there are people walking near cars .
Correct statement: It is almost certain that the people are traveling together .
Incorrect statement: Chances are slight that the people are traveling together .