Premise: Someone with a long pole that appears to have a spike on the end is pointing it at a red balloon on the other side of the wall from him.
Correct statement: It is certain that a person with a long object stands on one side of a wall and a balloon floats on the other side.
Incorrect statement: It is probably not the case that a person with a long object stands on one side of a wall and a balloon floats on the other side.