diff --git "a/vtt/episode_019_small.vtt" "b/vtt/episode_019_small.vtt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/vtt/episode_019_small.vtt" @@ -0,0 +1,4499 @@ +WEBVTT + +00:00.000 --> 00:03.760 + The following is a conversation with Ian Goodfellow. + +00:03.760 --> 00:06.360 + He's the author of the popular textbook on deep learning + +00:06.360 --> 00:08.880 + simply titled Deep Learning. + +00:08.880 --> 00:12.320 + He coined the term of generative adversarial networks, + +00:12.320 --> 00:14.560 + otherwise known as GANs. + +00:14.560 --> 00:18.160 + And with his 2014 paper is responsible + +00:18.160 --> 00:20.440 + for launching the incredible growth + +00:20.440 --> 00:22.120 + of research and innovation + +00:22.120 --> 00:24.720 + in this subfield of deep learning. + +00:24.720 --> 00:27.520 + He got his BS and MS at Stanford, + +00:27.520 --> 00:30.120 + his PhD at University of Montreal + +00:30.120 --> 00:33.200 + with Yoshua Benjo and Aaron Kervel. + +00:33.200 --> 00:35.240 + He held several research positions, + +00:35.240 --> 00:37.560 + including at OpenAI, Google Brain, + +00:37.560 --> 00:41.560 + and now at Apple as the director of machine learning. + +00:41.560 --> 00:45.400 + This recording happened while Ian was still a Google Brain, + +00:45.400 --> 00:48.520 + but we don't talk about anything specific to Google + +00:48.520 --> 00:50.760 + or any other organization. + +00:50.760 --> 00:52.480 + This conversation is part + +00:52.480 --> 00:54.520 + of the artificial intelligence podcast. + +00:54.520 --> 00:56.680 + If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube, + +00:56.680 --> 00:59.600 + iTunes, or simply connect with me on Twitter + +00:59.600 --> 01:03.000 + at Lex Freedman, spelled F R I D. + +01:03.000 --> 01:07.080 + And now here's my conversation with Ian Goodfellow. + +01:08.240 --> 01:11.000 + You open your popular deep learning book + +01:11.000 --> 01:13.600 + with a Russian doll type diagram + +01:13.600 --> 01:15.880 + that shows deep learning is a subset + +01:15.880 --> 01:17.160 + of representation learning, + +01:17.160 --> 01:19.960 + which in turn is a subset of machine learning + +01:19.960 --> 01:22.520 + and finally a subset of AI. + +01:22.520 --> 01:25.280 + So this kind of implies that there may be limits + +01:25.280 --> 01:27.720 + to deep learning in the context of AI. + +01:27.720 --> 01:31.560 + So what do you think is the current limits of deep learning + +01:31.560 --> 01:33.120 + and are those limits something + +01:33.120 --> 01:35.760 + that we can overcome with time? + +01:35.760 --> 01:37.720 + Yeah, I think one of the biggest limitations + +01:37.720 --> 01:39.320 + of deep learning is that right now + +01:39.320 --> 01:42.920 + it requires really a lot of data, especially labeled data. + +01:43.960 --> 01:45.480 + There are some unsupervised + +01:45.480 --> 01:47.160 + and semi supervised learning algorithms + +01:47.160 --> 01:49.480 + that can reduce the amount of labeled data you need, + +01:49.480 --> 01:52.200 + but they still require a lot of unlabeled data. + +01:52.200 --> 01:54.200 + Reinforcement learning algorithms, they don't need labels, + +01:54.200 --> 01:56.280 + but they need really a lot of experiences. + +01:57.280 --> 01:58.920 + As human beings, we don't learn to play a pong + +01:58.920 --> 02:01.520 + by failing at pong two million times. + +02:02.720 --> 02:05.880 + So just getting the generalization ability better + +02:05.880 --> 02:08.040 + is one of the most important bottlenecks + +02:08.040 --> 02:10.520 + in the capability of the technology today. + +02:10.520 --> 02:12.360 + And then I guess I'd also say deep learning + +02:12.360 --> 02:15.620 + is like a component of a bigger system. + +02:16.600 --> 02:19.040 + So far, nobody is really proposing to have + +02:20.600 --> 02:22.000 + only what you'd call deep learning + +02:22.000 --> 02:25.520 + as the entire ingredient of intelligence. + +02:25.520 --> 02:29.860 + You use deep learning as sub modules of other systems, + +02:29.860 --> 02:32.320 + like AlphaGo has a deep learning model + +02:32.320 --> 02:34.160 + that estimates the value function. + +02:35.200 --> 02:36.600 + Most reinforcement learning algorithms + +02:36.600 --> 02:37.880 + have a deep learning module + +02:37.880 --> 02:40.320 + that estimates which action to take next, + +02:40.320 --> 02:42.480 + but you might have other components. + +02:42.480 --> 02:46.120 + So you're basically building a function estimator. + +02:46.120 --> 02:48.600 + Do you think it's possible? + +02:48.600 --> 02:51.000 + You said nobody's kind of been thinking about this so far, + +02:51.000 --> 02:54.320 + but do you think neural networks could be made to reason + +02:54.320 --> 02:57.720 + in the way symbolic systems did in the 80s and 90s + +02:57.720 --> 03:00.160 + to do more, create more like programs + +03:00.160 --> 03:01.440 + as opposed to functions? + +03:01.440 --> 03:03.920 + Yeah, I think we already see that a little bit. + +03:04.880 --> 03:08.860 + I already kind of think of neural nets as a kind of program. + +03:08.860 --> 03:12.920 + I think of deep learning as basically learning programs + +03:12.920 --> 03:15.280 + that have more than one step. + +03:15.280 --> 03:16.960 + So if you draw a flow chart + +03:16.960 --> 03:19.540 + or if you draw a TensorFlow graph + +03:19.540 --> 03:21.880 + describing your machine learning model, + +03:21.880 --> 03:23.520 + I think of the depth of that graph + +03:23.520 --> 03:25.880 + as describing the number of steps that run in sequence + +03:25.880 --> 03:27.640 + and then the width of that graph + +03:27.640 --> 03:30.120 + as the number of steps that run in parallel. + +03:30.120 --> 03:31.680 + Now it's been long enough + +03:31.680 --> 03:32.880 + that we've had deep learning working + +03:32.880 --> 03:33.880 + that it's a little bit silly + +03:33.880 --> 03:35.740 + to even discuss shallow learning anymore, + +03:35.740 --> 03:38.880 + but back when I first got involved in AI, + +03:38.880 --> 03:40.080 + when we used machine learning, + +03:40.080 --> 03:41.280 + we were usually learning things + +03:41.280 --> 03:43.680 + like support vector machines. + +03:43.680 --> 03:45.640 + You could have a lot of input features to the model + +03:45.640 --> 03:48.120 + and you could multiply each feature by a different weight. + +03:48.120 --> 03:51.240 + All those multiplications were done in parallel to each other + +03:51.240 --> 03:52.720 + and there wasn't a lot done in series. + +03:52.720 --> 03:54.360 + I think what we got with deep learning + +03:54.360 --> 03:58.400 + was really the ability to have steps of a program + +03:58.400 --> 04:00.320 + that run in sequence. + +04:00.320 --> 04:03.200 + And I think that we've actually started to see + +04:03.200 --> 04:05.040 + that what's important with deep learning + +04:05.040 --> 04:08.000 + is more the fact that we have a multi step program + +04:08.000 --> 04:10.800 + rather than the fact that we've learned a representation. + +04:10.800 --> 04:15.120 + If you look at things like Resnuts, for example, + +04:15.120 --> 04:18.660 + they take one particular kind of representation + +04:18.660 --> 04:21.040 + and they update it several times. + +04:21.040 --> 04:23.560 + Back when deep learning first really took off + +04:23.560 --> 04:25.760 + in the academic world in 2006, + +04:25.760 --> 04:28.400 + when Jeff Hinton showed that you could train + +04:28.400 --> 04:30.160 + deep belief networks, + +04:30.160 --> 04:31.960 + everybody who was interested in the idea + +04:31.960 --> 04:33.560 + thought of it as each layer + +04:33.560 --> 04:35.960 + learns a different level of abstraction, + +04:35.960 --> 04:37.840 + that the first layer trained on images + +04:37.840 --> 04:38.960 + learns something like edges + +04:38.960 --> 04:40.420 + and the second layer learns corners + +04:40.420 --> 04:43.320 + and eventually you get these kind of grandmother cell units + +04:43.320 --> 04:45.920 + that recognize specific objects. + +04:45.920 --> 04:48.560 + Today, I think most people think of it more + +04:48.560 --> 04:52.000 + as a computer program where as you add more layers, + +04:52.000 --> 04:55.120 + you can do more updates before you output your final number. + +04:55.120 --> 04:57.160 + But I don't think anybody believes that + +04:57.160 --> 05:02.040 + layer 150 of the Resnet is a grandmother cell + +05:02.040 --> 05:05.080 + and layer 100 is contours or something like that. + +05:06.040 --> 05:08.160 + Okay, so you're not thinking of it + +05:08.160 --> 05:11.520 + as a singular representation that keeps building. + +05:11.520 --> 05:15.960 + You think of it as a program sort of almost like a state. + +05:15.960 --> 05:18.600 + The representation is a state of understanding. + +05:18.600 --> 05:21.520 + Yeah, I think of it as a program that makes several updates + +05:21.520 --> 05:23.840 + and arrives at better and better understandings, + +05:23.840 --> 05:27.500 + but it's not replacing the representation at each step. + +05:27.500 --> 05:29.160 + It's refining it. + +05:29.160 --> 05:31.660 + And in some sense, that's a little bit like reasoning. + +05:31.660 --> 05:33.560 + It's not reasoning in the form of deduction, + +05:33.560 --> 05:36.960 + but it's reasoning in the form of taking a thought + +05:36.960 --> 05:39.440 + and refining it and refining it carefully + +05:39.440 --> 05:41.240 + until it's good enough to use. + +05:41.240 --> 05:43.560 + So do you think, and I hope you don't mind, + +05:43.560 --> 05:46.040 + we'll jump philosophical every once in a while. + +05:46.040 --> 05:50.480 + Do you think of, you know, cognition, human cognition, + +05:50.480 --> 05:53.520 + or even consciousness as simply a result + +05:53.520 --> 05:58.120 + of this kind of sequential representation learning? + +05:58.120 --> 06:00.440 + Do you think that can emerge? + +06:00.440 --> 06:02.440 + Cognition, yes, I think so. + +06:02.440 --> 06:05.160 + Consciousness, it's really hard to even define + +06:05.160 --> 06:06.400 + what we mean by that. + +06:07.400 --> 06:09.840 + I guess there's, consciousness is often defined + +06:09.840 --> 06:12.120 + as things like having self awareness, + +06:12.120 --> 06:15.200 + and that's relatively easy to turn it + +06:15.200 --> 06:17.200 + to something actionable for a computer scientist + +06:17.200 --> 06:18.400 + to reason about. + +06:18.400 --> 06:20.080 + People also define consciousness in terms + +06:20.080 --> 06:24.000 + of having qualitative states of experience, like qualia. + +06:24.000 --> 06:25.280 + There's all these philosophical problems, + +06:25.280 --> 06:27.880 + like could you imagine a zombie + +06:27.880 --> 06:30.760 + who does all the same information processing as a human, + +06:30.760 --> 06:33.500 + but doesn't really have the qualitative experiences + +06:33.500 --> 06:34.720 + that we have? + +06:34.720 --> 06:37.580 + That sort of thing, I have no idea how to formalize + +06:37.580 --> 06:39.960 + or turn it into a scientific question. + +06:39.960 --> 06:41.600 + I don't know how you could run an experiment + +06:41.600 --> 06:44.880 + to tell whether a person is a zombie or not. + +06:44.880 --> 06:46.680 + And similarly, I don't know how you could run + +06:46.680 --> 06:49.680 + an experiment to tell whether an advanced AI system + +06:49.680 --> 06:53.080 + had become conscious in the sense of qualia or not. + +06:53.080 --> 06:54.600 + But in the more practical sense, + +06:54.600 --> 06:56.320 + like almost like self attention, + +06:56.320 --> 06:58.920 + you think consciousness and cognition can, + +06:58.920 --> 07:03.240 + in an impressive way, emerge from current types + +07:03.240 --> 07:05.600 + of architectures that we think of as determining. + +07:05.600 --> 07:07.920 + Or if you think of consciousness + +07:07.920 --> 07:12.160 + in terms of self awareness and just making plans + +07:12.160 --> 07:15.120 + based on the fact that the agent itself + +07:15.120 --> 07:18.000 + exists in the world, reinforcement learning algorithms + +07:18.000 --> 07:20.840 + are already more or less forced to model + +07:20.840 --> 07:23.040 + the agent's effect on the environment. + +07:23.040 --> 07:26.340 + So that more limited version of consciousness + +07:26.340 --> 07:30.560 + is already something that we get limited versions + +07:30.560 --> 07:32.960 + of with reinforcement learning algorithms + +07:32.960 --> 07:34.640 + if they're trained well. + +07:34.640 --> 07:37.440 + But you say limited. + +07:37.440 --> 07:39.920 + So the big question really is how you jump + +07:39.920 --> 07:42.120 + from limited to human level, right? + +07:42.120 --> 07:44.640 + And whether it's possible, + +07:46.840 --> 07:49.000 + even just building common sense reasoning + +07:49.000 --> 07:50.520 + seems to be exceptionally difficult. + +07:50.520 --> 07:52.480 + So if we scale things up, + +07:52.480 --> 07:55.000 + if we get much better on supervised learning, + +07:55.000 --> 07:56.600 + if we get better at labeling, + +07:56.600 --> 08:00.640 + if we get bigger datasets, more compute, + +08:00.640 --> 08:03.880 + do you think we'll start to see really impressive things + +08:03.880 --> 08:08.760 + that go from limited to something echoes + +08:08.760 --> 08:10.320 + of human level cognition? + +08:10.320 --> 08:11.200 + I think so, yeah. + +08:11.200 --> 08:13.360 + I'm optimistic about what can happen + +08:13.360 --> 08:16.440 + just with more computation and more data. + +08:16.440 --> 08:20.120 + I do think it'll be important to get the right kind of data. + +08:20.120 --> 08:23.160 + Today, most of the machine learning systems we train + +08:23.160 --> 08:27.560 + are mostly trained on one type of data for each model. + +08:27.560 --> 08:31.380 + But the human brain, we get all of our different senses + +08:31.380 --> 08:33.880 + and we have many different experiences + +08:33.880 --> 08:36.320 + like riding a bike, driving a car, + +08:36.320 --> 08:37.940 + talking to people, reading. + +08:39.160 --> 08:42.440 + I think when we get that kind of integrated dataset + +08:42.440 --> 08:44.400 + working with a machine learning model + +08:44.400 --> 08:47.640 + that can actually close the loop and interact, + +08:47.640 --> 08:50.480 + we may find that algorithms not so different + +08:50.480 --> 08:51.840 + from what we have today, + +08:51.840 --> 08:53.240 + learn really interesting things + +08:53.240 --> 08:54.400 + when you scale them up a lot + +08:54.400 --> 08:58.240 + and train them on a large amount of multimodal data. + +08:58.240 --> 08:59.640 + So multimodal is really interesting, + +08:59.640 --> 09:04.000 + but within, like you're working adversarial examples. + +09:04.000 --> 09:09.000 + So selecting within model, within one mode of data, + +09:11.120 --> 09:13.800 + selecting better at what are the difficult cases + +09:13.800 --> 09:16.120 + from which you're most useful to learn from. + +09:16.120 --> 09:18.880 + Oh, yeah, like could we get a whole lot of mileage + +09:18.880 --> 09:22.280 + out of designing a model that's resistant + +09:22.280 --> 09:24.080 + to adversarial examples or something like that? + +09:24.080 --> 09:26.280 + Right, that's the question. + +09:26.280 --> 09:27.760 + My thinking on that has evolved a lot + +09:27.760 --> 09:28.920 + over the last few years. + +09:28.920 --> 09:31.280 + When I first started to really invest + +09:31.280 --> 09:32.760 + in studying adversarial examples, + +09:32.760 --> 09:36.320 + I was thinking of it mostly as adversarial examples + +09:36.320 --> 09:39.000 + reveal a big problem with machine learning. + +09:39.000 --> 09:41.160 + And we would like to close the gap + +09:41.160 --> 09:44.160 + between how machine learning models respond + +09:44.160 --> 09:46.560 + to adversarial examples and how humans respond. + +09:47.640 --> 09:49.160 + After studying the problem more, + +09:49.160 --> 09:51.960 + I still think that adversarial examples are important. + +09:51.960 --> 09:55.440 + I think of them now more of as a security liability + +09:55.440 --> 09:57.800 + than as an issue that necessarily shows + +09:57.800 --> 09:59.880 + there's something uniquely wrong + +09:59.880 --> 10:02.800 + with machine learning as opposed to humans. + +10:02.800 --> 10:04.600 + Also, do you see them as a tool + +10:04.600 --> 10:06.480 + to improve the performance of the system? + +10:06.480 --> 10:10.760 + Not on the security side, but literally just accuracy. + +10:10.760 --> 10:13.480 + I do see them as a kind of tool on that side, + +10:13.480 --> 10:16.640 + but maybe not quite as much as I used to think. + +10:16.640 --> 10:18.520 + We've started to find that there's a trade off + +10:18.520 --> 10:21.680 + between accuracy on adversarial examples + +10:21.680 --> 10:24.360 + and accuracy on clean examples. + +10:24.360 --> 10:28.320 + Back in 2014, when I did the first adversarily trained + +10:28.320 --> 10:30.840 + classifier that showed resistance + +10:30.840 --> 10:33.040 + to some kinds of adversarial examples, + +10:33.040 --> 10:36.040 + it also got better at the clean data on MNIST. + +10:36.040 --> 10:37.720 + And that's something we've replicated several times + +10:37.720 --> 10:39.640 + on MNIST, that when we train + +10:39.640 --> 10:41.480 + against weak adversarial examples, + +10:41.480 --> 10:43.880 + MNIST classifiers get more accurate. + +10:43.880 --> 10:47.080 + So far that hasn't really held up on other data sets + +10:47.080 --> 10:48.880 + and hasn't held up when we train + +10:48.880 --> 10:50.720 + against stronger adversaries. + +10:50.720 --> 10:53.160 + It seems like when you confront + +10:53.160 --> 10:55.720 + a really strong adversary, + +10:55.720 --> 10:58.080 + you tend to have to give something up. + +10:58.080 --> 11:00.520 + Interesting, but it's such a compelling idea + +11:00.520 --> 11:04.800 + because it feels like that's how us humans learn + +11:04.800 --> 11:06.320 + to do the difficult cases. + +11:06.320 --> 11:08.760 + We try to think of what would we screw up + +11:08.760 --> 11:11.000 + and then we make sure we fix that. + +11:11.000 --> 11:13.680 + It's also in a lot of branches of engineering, + +11:13.680 --> 11:15.800 + you do a worst case analysis + +11:15.800 --> 11:18.720 + and make sure that your system will work in the worst case. + +11:18.720 --> 11:20.400 + And then that guarantees that it'll work + +11:20.400 --> 11:24.360 + in all of the messy average cases that happen + +11:24.360 --> 11:27.440 + when you go out into a really randomized world. + +11:27.440 --> 11:29.560 + Yeah, with driving with autonomous vehicles, + +11:29.560 --> 11:31.840 + there seems to be a desire to just look + +11:31.840 --> 11:34.880 + for think adversarially, + +11:34.880 --> 11:36.920 + try to figure out how to mess up the system. + +11:36.920 --> 11:40.640 + And if you can be robust to all those difficult cases, + +11:40.640 --> 11:43.600 + then you can, it's a hand wavy empirical way + +11:43.600 --> 11:45.800 + to show your system is safe. + +11:45.800 --> 11:47.000 + Yeah, yeah. + +11:47.000 --> 11:49.120 + Today, most adversarial example research + +11:49.120 --> 11:51.640 + isn't really focused on a particular use case, + +11:51.640 --> 11:54.000 + but there are a lot of different use cases + +11:54.000 --> 11:55.080 + where you'd like to make sure + +11:55.080 --> 11:57.720 + that the adversary can't interfere + +11:57.720 --> 12:00.200 + with the operation of your system. + +12:00.200 --> 12:01.040 + Like in finance, + +12:01.040 --> 12:03.320 + if you have an algorithm making trades for you, + +12:03.320 --> 12:04.640 + people go to a lot of an effort + +12:04.640 --> 12:06.680 + to obfuscate their algorithm. + +12:06.680 --> 12:08.080 + That's both to protect their IP + +12:08.080 --> 12:10.880 + because you don't want to research + +12:10.880 --> 12:13.560 + and develop a profitable trading algorithm + +12:13.560 --> 12:16.120 + then have somebody else capture the gains. + +12:16.120 --> 12:17.160 + But it's at least partly + +12:17.160 --> 12:19.000 + because you don't want people to make adversarial + +12:19.000 --> 12:21.240 + examples that fool your algorithm + +12:21.240 --> 12:22.560 + into making bad trades. + +12:24.360 --> 12:26.560 + Or I guess one area that's been popular + +12:26.560 --> 12:30.160 + in the academic literature is speech recognition. + +12:30.160 --> 12:34.400 + If you use speech recognition to hear an audio waveform + +12:34.400 --> 12:37.680 + and then turn that into a command + +12:37.680 --> 12:39.640 + that a phone executes for you, + +12:39.640 --> 12:41.840 + you don't want a malicious adversary + +12:41.840 --> 12:43.600 + to be able to produce audio + +12:43.600 --> 12:46.280 + that gets interpreted as malicious commands, + +12:46.280 --> 12:47.800 + especially if a human in the room + +12:47.800 --> 12:50.320 + doesn't realize that something like that is happening. + +12:50.320 --> 12:52.000 + In speech recognition, + +12:52.000 --> 12:53.920 + has there been much success + +12:53.920 --> 12:58.440 + in being able to create adversarial examples + +12:58.440 --> 12:59.760 + that fool the system? + +12:59.760 --> 13:00.880 + Yeah, actually. + +13:00.880 --> 13:02.440 + I guess the first work that I'm aware of + +13:02.440 --> 13:05.120 + is a paper called Hidden Voice Commands + +13:05.120 --> 13:08.480 + that came out in 2016, I believe. + +13:08.480 --> 13:09.560 + And they were able to show + +13:09.560 --> 13:11.920 + that they could make sounds + +13:11.920 --> 13:14.960 + that are not understandable by a human + +13:14.960 --> 13:18.400 + but are recognized as the target phrase + +13:18.400 --> 13:21.360 + that the attacker wants the phone to recognize it as. + +13:21.360 --> 13:24.040 + Since then, things have gotten a little bit better + +13:24.040 --> 13:27.600 + on the attacker side when worse on the defender side. + +13:28.680 --> 13:33.360 + It's become possible to make sounds + +13:33.360 --> 13:35.600 + that sound like normal speech + +13:35.600 --> 13:39.000 + but are actually interpreted as a different sentence + +13:39.000 --> 13:40.720 + than the human hears. + +13:40.720 --> 13:42.720 + The level of perceptibility + +13:42.720 --> 13:45.360 + of the adversarial perturbation is still kind of high. + +13:46.600 --> 13:48.160 + When you listen to the recording, + +13:48.160 --> 13:51.040 + it sounds like there's some noise in the background, + +13:51.040 --> 13:52.960 + just like rustling sounds. + +13:52.960 --> 13:54.360 + But those rustling sounds are actually + +13:54.360 --> 13:55.560 + the adversarial perturbation + +13:55.560 --> 13:58.040 + that makes the phone hear a completely different sentence. + +13:58.040 --> 14:00.120 + Yeah, that's so fascinating. + +14:00.120 --> 14:01.640 + Peter Norvig mentioned that you're writing + +14:01.640 --> 14:04.280 + the deep learning chapter for the fourth edition + +14:04.280 --> 14:05.840 + of the Artificial Intelligence, + +14:05.840 --> 14:07.320 + the Modern Approach Book. + +14:07.320 --> 14:10.680 + So how do you even begin summarizing + +14:10.680 --> 14:12.960 + the field of deep learning in a chapter? + +14:12.960 --> 14:16.840 + Well, in my case, I waited like a year + +14:16.840 --> 14:19.080 + before I actually wrote anything. + +14:19.080 --> 14:20.280 + Is it? + +14:20.280 --> 14:22.600 + Even having written a full length textbook before, + +14:22.600 --> 14:25.560 + it's still pretty intimidating + +14:25.560 --> 14:27.800 + to try to start writing just one chapter + +14:27.800 --> 14:29.040 + that covers everything. + +14:31.080 --> 14:33.160 + One thing that helped me make that plan + +14:33.160 --> 14:34.280 + was actually the experience + +14:34.280 --> 14:36.680 + of having written the full book before + +14:36.680 --> 14:39.080 + and then watching how the field changed + +14:39.080 --> 14:40.920 + after the book came out. + +14:40.920 --> 14:42.280 + I realized there's a lot of topics + +14:42.280 --> 14:44.960 + that were maybe extraneous in the first book + +14:44.960 --> 14:47.560 + and just seeing what stood the test + +14:47.560 --> 14:49.360 + of a few years of being published + +14:49.360 --> 14:52.160 + and what seems a little bit less important + +14:52.160 --> 14:53.760 + to have included now helped me pare down + +14:53.760 --> 14:55.920 + the topics I wanted to cover for the book. + +14:56.840 --> 14:59.560 + It's also really nice now that the field + +14:59.560 --> 15:00.920 + is kind of stabilized to the point + +15:00.920 --> 15:04.720 + where some core ideas from the 1980s are still used today. + +15:04.720 --> 15:06.640 + When I first started studying machine learning, + +15:06.640 --> 15:09.520 + almost everything from the 1980s had been rejected + +15:09.520 --> 15:11.320 + and now some of it has come back. + +15:11.320 --> 15:13.440 + So that stuff that's really stood the test of time + +15:13.440 --> 15:15.880 + is what I focused on putting into the book. + +15:16.880 --> 15:21.240 + There's also, I guess, two different philosophies + +15:21.240 --> 15:23.120 + about how you might write a book. + +15:23.120 --> 15:24.760 + One philosophy is you try to write a reference + +15:24.760 --> 15:26.160 + that covers everything. + +15:26.160 --> 15:27.960 + The other philosophy is you try to provide + +15:27.960 --> 15:30.320 + a high level summary that gives people + +15:30.320 --> 15:32.360 + the language to understand a field + +15:32.360 --> 15:34.920 + and tells them what the most important concepts are. + +15:34.920 --> 15:37.080 + The first deep learning book that I wrote + +15:37.080 --> 15:39.240 + with Joshua and Aaron was somewhere + +15:39.240 --> 15:41.240 + between the two philosophies, + +15:41.240 --> 15:43.640 + that it's trying to be both a reference + +15:43.640 --> 15:45.760 + and an introductory guide. + +15:45.760 --> 15:48.920 + Writing this chapter for Russell and Norvig's book, + +15:48.920 --> 15:52.800 + I was able to focus more on just a concise introduction + +15:52.800 --> 15:54.240 + of the key concepts and the language + +15:54.240 --> 15:56.000 + you need to read about them more. + +15:56.000 --> 15:57.560 + In a lot of cases, I actually just wrote paragraphs + +15:57.560 --> 16:00.080 + that said, here's a rapidly evolving area + +16:00.080 --> 16:02.400 + that you should pay attention to. + +16:02.400 --> 16:04.760 + It's pointless to try to tell you what the latest + +16:04.760 --> 16:09.760 + and best version of a learn to learn model is. + +16:11.440 --> 16:13.640 + I can point you to a paper that's recent right now, + +16:13.640 --> 16:16.880 + but there isn't a whole lot of a reason to delve + +16:16.880 --> 16:20.440 + into exactly what's going on with the latest + +16:20.440 --> 16:22.960 + learning to learn approach or the latest module + +16:22.960 --> 16:24.960 + produced by a learning to learn algorithm. + +16:24.960 --> 16:26.760 + You should know that learning to learn is a thing + +16:26.760 --> 16:29.480 + and that it may very well be the source + +16:29.480 --> 16:32.200 + of the latest and greatest convolutional net + +16:32.200 --> 16:34.520 + or recurrent net module that you would want to use + +16:34.520 --> 16:36.040 + in your latest project. + +16:36.040 --> 16:38.200 + But there isn't a lot of point in trying to summarize + +16:38.200 --> 16:42.280 + exactly which architecture and which learning approach + +16:42.280 --> 16:44.040 + got to which level of performance. + +16:44.040 --> 16:49.040 + So you maybe focus more on the basics of the methodology. + +16:49.240 --> 16:52.480 + So from back propagation to feed forward + +16:52.480 --> 16:55.160 + to recurrent networks, convolutional, that kind of thing. + +16:55.160 --> 16:56.480 + Yeah, yeah. + +16:56.480 --> 17:00.320 + So if I were to ask you, I remember I took algorithms + +17:00.320 --> 17:03.720 + and data structures algorithms, of course. + +17:03.720 --> 17:08.120 + I remember the professor asked, what is an algorithm? + +17:09.200 --> 17:12.200 + And he yelled at everybody in a good way + +17:12.200 --> 17:14.040 + that nobody was answering it correctly. + +17:14.040 --> 17:16.360 + Everybody knew what the algorithm, it was graduate course. + +17:16.360 --> 17:18.120 + Everybody knew what an algorithm was, + +17:18.120 --> 17:19.800 + but they weren't able to answer it well. + +17:19.800 --> 17:22.360 + So let me ask you, in that same spirit, + +17:22.360 --> 17:23.580 + what is deep learning? + +17:24.520 --> 17:29.520 + I would say deep learning is any kind of machine learning + +17:29.520 --> 17:34.520 + that involves learning parameters of more than one + +17:34.720 --> 17:36.020 + consecutive step. + +17:37.280 --> 17:40.760 + So that, I mean, shallow learning is things where + +17:40.760 --> 17:43.760 + you learn a lot of operations that happen in parallel. + +17:43.760 --> 17:46.720 + You might have a system that makes multiple steps, + +17:46.720 --> 17:51.000 + like you might have hand designed feature extractors, + +17:51.000 --> 17:52.600 + but really only one step is learned. + +17:52.600 --> 17:55.440 + Deep learning is anything where you have multiple + +17:55.440 --> 17:56.880 + operations in sequence. + +17:56.880 --> 17:59.400 + And that includes the things that are really popular + +17:59.400 --> 18:01.280 + today, like convolutional networks + +18:01.280 --> 18:04.640 + and recurrent networks, but it also includes some + +18:04.640 --> 18:08.280 + of the things that have died out, like Bolton machines, + +18:08.280 --> 18:10.880 + where we weren't using back propagation. + +18:11.960 --> 18:14.240 + Today, I hear a lot of people define deep learning + +18:14.240 --> 18:19.240 + as gradient descent applied to these differentiable + +18:20.400 --> 18:24.240 + functions, and I think that's a legitimate usage + +18:24.240 --> 18:25.920 + of the term, it's just different from the way + +18:25.920 --> 18:27.800 + that I use the term myself. + +18:27.800 --> 18:32.360 + So what's an example of deep learning that is not + +18:32.360 --> 18:34.720 + gradient descent and differentiable functions? + +18:34.720 --> 18:37.400 + In your, I mean, not specifically perhaps, + +18:37.400 --> 18:39.760 + but more even looking into the future. + +18:39.760 --> 18:44.300 + What's your thought about that space of approaches? + +18:44.300 --> 18:46.340 + Yeah, so I tend to think of machine learning algorithms + +18:46.340 --> 18:50.200 + as decomposed into really three different pieces. + +18:50.200 --> 18:53.000 + There's the model, which can be something like a neural net + +18:53.000 --> 18:56.600 + or a Bolton machine or a recurrent model. + +18:56.600 --> 18:59.520 + And that basically just describes how do you take data + +18:59.520 --> 19:03.480 + and how do you take parameters and what function do you use + +19:03.480 --> 19:07.320 + to make a prediction given the data and the parameters? + +19:07.320 --> 19:09.920 + Another piece of the learning algorithm is + +19:09.920 --> 19:13.880 + the optimization algorithm, or not every algorithm + +19:13.880 --> 19:15.920 + can be really described in terms of optimization, + +19:15.920 --> 19:18.880 + but what's the algorithm for updating the parameters + +19:18.880 --> 19:21.680 + or updating whatever the state of the network is? + +19:22.600 --> 19:26.280 + And then the last part is the data set, + +19:26.280 --> 19:29.200 + like how do you actually represent the world + +19:29.200 --> 19:32.120 + as it comes into your machine learning system? + +19:33.160 --> 19:35.800 + So I think of deep learning as telling us something + +19:35.800 --> 19:39.040 + about what does the model look like? + +19:39.040 --> 19:41.240 + And basically to qualify as deep, + +19:41.240 --> 19:44.560 + I say that it just has to have multiple layers. + +19:44.560 --> 19:47.360 + That can be multiple steps in a feed forward + +19:47.360 --> 19:49.240 + differentiable computation. + +19:49.240 --> 19:52.040 + That can be multiple layers in a graphical model. + +19:52.040 --> 19:53.560 + There's a lot of ways that you could satisfy me + +19:53.560 --> 19:56.160 + that something has multiple steps + +19:56.160 --> 19:58.920 + that are each parameterized separately. + +19:58.920 --> 20:00.640 + I think of gradient descent as being all about + +20:00.640 --> 20:01.560 + that other piece, + +20:01.560 --> 20:04.240 + the how do you actually update the parameters piece? + +20:04.240 --> 20:05.960 + So you could imagine having a deep model + +20:05.960 --> 20:08.680 + like a convolutional net and training it with something + +20:08.680 --> 20:11.280 + like evolution or a genetic algorithm. + +20:11.280 --> 20:14.640 + And I would say that still qualifies as deep learning. + +20:14.640 --> 20:16.040 + And then in terms of models + +20:16.040 --> 20:18.760 + that aren't necessarily differentiable, + +20:18.760 --> 20:22.480 + I guess Bolton machines are probably the main example + +20:22.480 --> 20:25.560 + of something where you can't really take a derivative + +20:25.560 --> 20:28.000 + and use that for the learning process. + +20:28.000 --> 20:32.320 + But you can still argue that the model has many steps + +20:32.320 --> 20:33.760 + of processing that it applies + +20:33.760 --> 20:35.800 + when you run inference in the model. + +20:35.800 --> 20:38.960 + So it's the steps of processing that's key. + +20:38.960 --> 20:41.320 + So Jeff Hinton suggests that we need to throw away + +20:41.320 --> 20:44.960 + back propagation and start all over. + +20:44.960 --> 20:46.520 + What do you think about that? + +20:46.520 --> 20:48.600 + What could an alternative direction + +20:48.600 --> 20:51.000 + of training neural networks look like? + +20:51.000 --> 20:52.880 + I don't know that back propagation + +20:52.880 --> 20:54.680 + is going to go away entirely. + +20:54.680 --> 20:57.120 + Most of the time when we decide + +20:57.120 --> 20:59.200 + that a machine learning algorithm + +20:59.200 --> 21:03.440 + isn't on the critical path to research for improving AI, + +21:03.440 --> 21:04.640 + the algorithm doesn't die, + +21:04.640 --> 21:07.760 + it just becomes used for some specialized set of things. + +21:08.760 --> 21:11.160 + A lot of algorithms like logistic regression + +21:11.160 --> 21:14.000 + don't seem that exciting to AI researchers + +21:14.000 --> 21:16.760 + who are working on things like speech recognition + +21:16.760 --> 21:18.400 + or autonomous cars today, + +21:18.400 --> 21:21.080 + but there's still a lot of use for logistic regression + +21:21.080 --> 21:23.960 + and things like analyzing really noisy data + +21:23.960 --> 21:25.640 + in medicine and finance + +21:25.640 --> 21:28.720 + or making really rapid predictions + +21:28.720 --> 21:30.680 + in really time limited contexts. + +21:30.680 --> 21:33.440 + So I think back propagation and gradient descent + +21:33.440 --> 21:34.520 + are around to stay, + +21:34.520 --> 21:38.760 + but they may not end up being everything + +21:38.760 --> 21:40.840 + that we need to get to real human level + +21:40.840 --> 21:42.360 + or super human AI. + +21:42.360 --> 21:44.680 + Are you optimistic about us discovering? + +21:44.680 --> 21:49.680 + You know, back propagation has been around for a few decades. + +21:50.240 --> 21:54.080 + So are you optimistic about us as a community + +21:54.080 --> 21:56.800 + being able to discover something better? + +21:56.800 --> 21:57.640 + Yeah, I am. + +21:57.640 --> 22:01.840 + I think we likely will find something that works better. + +22:01.840 --> 22:05.520 + You could imagine things like having stacks of models + +22:05.520 --> 22:08.720 + where some of the lower level models predict parameters + +22:08.720 --> 22:10.200 + of the higher level models. + +22:10.200 --> 22:12.160 + And so at the top level, + +22:12.160 --> 22:13.480 + you're not learning in terms of literally + +22:13.480 --> 22:15.800 + calculating gradients, but just predicting + +22:15.800 --> 22:17.680 + how different values will perform. + +22:17.680 --> 22:19.560 + You can kind of see that already in some areas + +22:19.560 --> 22:21.400 + like Bayesian optimization, + +22:21.400 --> 22:22.960 + where you have a Gaussian process + +22:22.960 --> 22:24.800 + that predicts how well different parameter values + +22:24.800 --> 22:25.880 + will perform. + +22:25.880 --> 22:27.680 + We already use those kinds of algorithms + +22:27.680 --> 22:30.240 + for things like hyper parameter optimization. + +22:30.240 --> 22:31.640 + And in general, we know a lot of things + +22:31.640 --> 22:33.240 + other than back prop that work really well + +22:33.240 --> 22:35.000 + for specific problems. + +22:35.000 --> 22:38.240 + The main thing we haven't found is a way of taking one + +22:38.240 --> 22:41.160 + of these other non back prop based algorithms + +22:41.160 --> 22:43.520 + and having it really advance the state of the art + +22:43.520 --> 22:46.160 + on an AI level problem. + +22:46.160 --> 22:47.120 + Right. + +22:47.120 --> 22:49.600 + But I wouldn't be surprised if eventually we find + +22:49.600 --> 22:51.560 + that some of these algorithms that, + +22:51.560 --> 22:52.760 + even the ones that already exist, + +22:52.760 --> 22:54.200 + not even necessarily a new one, + +22:54.200 --> 22:59.200 + we might find some way of customizing one of these algorithms + +22:59.200 --> 23:00.560 + to do something really interesting + +23:00.560 --> 23:05.240 + at the level of cognition or the level of, + +23:06.400 --> 23:08.680 + I think one system that we really don't have working + +23:08.680 --> 23:12.920 + quite right yet is like short term memory. + +23:12.920 --> 23:14.480 + We have things like LSTMs, + +23:14.480 --> 23:17.000 + they're called long short term memory. + +23:17.000 --> 23:20.000 + They still don't do quite what a human does + +23:20.000 --> 23:21.720 + with short term memory. + +23:22.840 --> 23:26.920 + Like gradient descent to learn a specific fact + +23:26.920 --> 23:29.360 + has to do multiple steps on that fact. + +23:29.360 --> 23:34.120 + Like if I tell you, the meeting today is at 3pm, + +23:34.120 --> 23:35.440 + I don't need to say over and over again. + +23:35.440 --> 23:38.640 + It's at 3pm, it's at 3pm, it's at 3pm, it's at 3pm. + +23:38.640 --> 23:40.400 + For you to do a gradient step on each one, + +23:40.400 --> 23:43.160 + you just hear it once and you remember it. + +23:43.160 --> 23:46.920 + There's been some work on things like self attention + +23:46.920 --> 23:50.400 + and attention like mechanisms like the neural Turing machine + +23:50.400 --> 23:53.160 + that can write to memory cells and update themselves + +23:53.160 --> 23:54.880 + with facts like that right away. + +23:54.880 --> 23:56.880 + But I don't think we've really nailed it yet. + +23:56.880 --> 24:01.880 + And that's one area where I'd imagine that new optimization + +24:02.080 --> 24:04.240 + algorithms or different ways of applying existing + +24:04.240 --> 24:07.280 + optimization algorithms could give us a way + +24:07.280 --> 24:10.120 + of just lightning fast updating the state + +24:10.120 --> 24:12.400 + of a machine learning system to contain + +24:12.400 --> 24:14.920 + a specific fact like that without needing to have it + +24:14.920 --> 24:17.000 + presented over and over and over again. + +24:17.000 --> 24:21.440 + So some of the success of symbolic systems in the 80s + +24:21.440 --> 24:26.200 + is they were able to assemble these kinds of facts better. + +24:26.200 --> 24:29.080 + But there's a lot of expert input required + +24:29.080 --> 24:31.120 + and it's very limited in that sense. + +24:31.120 --> 24:34.720 + Do you ever look back to that as something + +24:34.720 --> 24:36.560 + that we'll have to return to eventually + +24:36.560 --> 24:38.440 + sort of dust off the book from the shelf + +24:38.440 --> 24:42.400 + and think about how we build knowledge, representation, + +24:42.400 --> 24:43.240 + knowledge. + +24:43.240 --> 24:44.840 + Like will we have to use graph searches? + +24:44.840 --> 24:45.800 + Graph searches, right. + +24:45.800 --> 24:47.720 + And like first order logic and entailment + +24:47.720 --> 24:48.560 + and things like that. + +24:48.560 --> 24:49.560 + That kind of thing, yeah, exactly. + +24:49.560 --> 24:51.200 + In my particular line of work, + +24:51.200 --> 24:54.560 + which has mostly been machine learning security + +24:54.560 --> 24:56.720 + and also generative modeling, + +24:56.720 --> 25:00.560 + I haven't usually found myself moving in that direction. + +25:00.560 --> 25:03.520 + For generative models, I could see a little bit of, + +25:03.520 --> 25:06.520 + it could be useful if you had something like a, + +25:06.520 --> 25:09.680 + a differentiable knowledge base + +25:09.680 --> 25:11.000 + or some other kind of knowledge base + +25:11.000 --> 25:13.840 + where it's possible for some of our fuzzier + +25:13.840 --> 25:16.880 + machine learning algorithms to interact with a knowledge base. + +25:16.880 --> 25:19.040 + I mean, your network is kind of like that. + +25:19.040 --> 25:21.440 + It's a differentiable knowledge base of sorts. + +25:21.440 --> 25:22.280 + Yeah. + +25:22.280 --> 25:27.280 + But if we had a really easy way of giving feedback + +25:27.600 --> 25:29.240 + to machine learning models, + +25:29.240 --> 25:32.400 + that would clearly help a lot with, with generative models. + +25:32.400 --> 25:34.680 + And so you could imagine one way of getting there would be, + +25:34.680 --> 25:36.720 + get a lot better at natural language processing. + +25:36.720 --> 25:38.920 + But another way of getting there would be, + +25:38.920 --> 25:40.280 + take some kind of knowledge base + +25:40.280 --> 25:42.800 + and figure out a way for it to actually interact + +25:42.800 --> 25:44.080 + with a neural network. + +25:44.080 --> 25:46.080 + Being able to have a chat with a neural network. + +25:46.080 --> 25:47.920 + Yeah. + +25:47.920 --> 25:50.920 + So like one thing in generative models we see a lot today is, + +25:50.920 --> 25:54.480 + you'll get things like faces that are not symmetrical. + +25:54.480 --> 25:56.800 + Like, like people that have two eyes + +25:56.800 --> 25:58.200 + that are different colors. + +25:58.200 --> 25:59.560 + And I mean, there are people with eyes + +25:59.560 --> 26:00.840 + that are different colors in real life, + +26:00.840 --> 26:03.480 + but not nearly as many of them as you tend to see + +26:03.480 --> 26:06.120 + in the machine learning generated data. + +26:06.120 --> 26:08.120 + So if you had either a knowledge base + +26:08.120 --> 26:10.200 + that could contain the fact, + +26:10.200 --> 26:13.360 + people's faces are generally approximately symmetric + +26:13.360 --> 26:15.920 + and eye color is especially likely + +26:15.920 --> 26:17.920 + to be the same on both sides. + +26:17.920 --> 26:20.160 + Being able to just inject that hint + +26:20.160 --> 26:22.000 + into the machine learning model + +26:22.000 --> 26:23.800 + without having to discover that itself + +26:23.800 --> 26:25.760 + after studying a lot of data + +26:25.760 --> 26:28.360 + would be a really useful feature. + +26:28.360 --> 26:30.120 + I could see a lot of ways of getting there + +26:30.120 --> 26:32.200 + without bringing back some of the 1980s technology, + +26:32.200 --> 26:35.160 + but I also see some ways that you could imagine + +26:35.160 --> 26:38.240 + extending the 1980s technology to play nice with neural nets + +26:38.240 --> 26:40.040 + and have it help get there. + +26:40.040 --> 26:40.880 + Awesome. + +26:40.880 --> 26:44.360 + So you talked about the story of you coming up + +26:44.360 --> 26:47.040 + with the idea of GANs at a bar with some friends. + +26:47.040 --> 26:50.400 + You were arguing that this, you know, + +26:50.400 --> 26:53.080 + GANs would work generative adversarial networks + +26:53.080 --> 26:54.680 + and the others didn't think so. + +26:54.680 --> 26:58.400 + Then you went home at midnight, coded up and it worked. + +26:58.400 --> 27:01.320 + So if I was a friend of yours at the bar, + +27:01.320 --> 27:02.720 + I would also have doubts. + +27:02.720 --> 27:03.880 + It's a really nice idea, + +27:03.880 --> 27:06.800 + but I'm very skeptical that it would work. + +27:06.800 --> 27:09.280 + What was the basis of their skepticism? + +27:09.280 --> 27:13.200 + What was the basis of your intuition why it should work? + +27:14.360 --> 27:16.840 + I don't wanna be someone who goes around promoting alcohol + +27:16.840 --> 27:18.280 + for the purposes of science, + +27:18.280 --> 27:21.040 + but in this case, I do actually think + +27:21.040 --> 27:23.080 + that drinking helped a little bit. + +27:23.080 --> 27:25.360 + When your inhibitions are lowered, + +27:25.360 --> 27:27.400 + you're more willing to try out things + +27:27.400 --> 27:29.640 + that you wouldn't try out otherwise. + +27:29.640 --> 27:32.480 + So I have noticed in general + +27:32.480 --> 27:34.560 + that I'm less prone to shooting down some of my own ideas + +27:34.560 --> 27:37.960 + when I have had a little bit to drink. + +27:37.960 --> 27:40.800 + I think if I had had that idea at lunchtime, + +27:40.800 --> 27:42.280 + I probably would have thought it. + +27:42.280 --> 27:43.720 + It's hard enough to train one neural net. + +27:43.720 --> 27:44.880 + You can't train a second neural net + +27:44.880 --> 27:48.080 + in the inner loop of the outer neural net. + +27:48.080 --> 27:49.800 + That was basically my friend's objection + +27:49.800 --> 27:52.720 + was that trying to train two neural nets at the same time + +27:52.720 --> 27:54.280 + would be too hard. + +27:54.280 --> 27:56.120 + So it was more about the training process + +27:56.120 --> 28:01.120 + unless, so my skepticism would be, I'm sure you could train it + +28:01.160 --> 28:03.200 + but the thing would converge to + +28:03.200 --> 28:05.840 + would not be able to generate anything reasonable + +28:05.840 --> 28:08.240 + and any kind of reasonable realism. + +28:08.240 --> 28:11.360 + Yeah, so part of what all of us were thinking about + +28:11.360 --> 28:15.280 + when we had this conversation was deep Bolton machines, + +28:15.280 --> 28:17.000 + which a lot of us in the lab, including me, + +28:17.000 --> 28:19.480 + were a big fan of deep Bolton machines at the time. + +28:20.640 --> 28:24.240 + They involved two separate processes running at the same time. + +28:24.240 --> 28:27.400 + One of them is called the positive phase + +28:27.400 --> 28:30.440 + where you load data into the model + +28:30.440 --> 28:32.920 + and tell the model to make the data more likely. + +28:32.920 --> 28:34.480 + The other one is called the negative phase + +28:34.480 --> 28:36.280 + where you draw samples from the model + +28:36.280 --> 28:38.880 + and tell the model to make those samples less likely. + +28:40.480 --> 28:42.400 + In a deep Bolton machine, it's not trivial + +28:42.400 --> 28:43.320 + to generate a sample. + +28:43.320 --> 28:46.280 + You have to actually run an iterative process + +28:46.280 --> 28:48.520 + that gets better and better samples + +28:48.520 --> 28:50.720 + coming closer and closer to the distribution + +28:50.720 --> 28:52.120 + the model represents. + +28:52.120 --> 28:53.240 + So during the training process, + +28:53.240 --> 28:56.560 + you're always running these two systems at the same time. + +28:56.560 --> 28:58.360 + One that's updating the parameters of the model + +28:58.360 --> 28:59.880 + and another one that's trying to generate samples + +28:59.880 --> 29:01.120 + from the model. + +29:01.120 --> 29:03.720 + And they worked really well on things like MNIST, + +29:03.720 --> 29:05.200 + but a lot of us in the lab, including me, + +29:05.200 --> 29:08.840 + had tried to get deep Bolton machines to scale past MNIST + +29:08.840 --> 29:11.320 + to things like generating color photos, + +29:11.320 --> 29:13.480 + and we just couldn't get the two processes + +29:13.480 --> 29:15.360 + to stay synchronized. + +29:16.720 --> 29:18.120 + So when I had the idea for GANs, + +29:18.120 --> 29:19.720 + a lot of people thought that the discriminator + +29:19.720 --> 29:21.960 + would have more or less the same problem + +29:21.960 --> 29:25.360 + as the negative phase in the Bolton machine, + +29:25.360 --> 29:27.840 + that trying to train the discriminator in the inner loop, + +29:27.840 --> 29:29.960 + you just couldn't get it to keep up + +29:29.960 --> 29:31.560 + with the generator in the outer loop. + +29:31.560 --> 29:33.360 + And that would prevent it from + +29:33.360 --> 29:35.240 + converging to anything useful. + +29:35.240 --> 29:36.880 + Yeah, I share that intuition. + +29:36.880 --> 29:37.720 + Yeah. + +29:39.560 --> 29:42.000 + But turns out to not be the case. + +29:42.000 --> 29:43.800 + A lot of the time with machine learning algorithms, + +29:43.800 --> 29:45.200 + it's really hard to predict ahead of time + +29:45.200 --> 29:46.960 + how well they'll actually perform. + +29:46.960 --> 29:48.160 + You have to just run the experiment + +29:48.160 --> 29:49.200 + and see what happens. + +29:49.200 --> 29:53.480 + And I would say I still today don't have like one factor + +29:53.480 --> 29:54.840 + I can put my finger on and say, + +29:54.840 --> 29:58.360 + this is why GANs worked for photo generation + +29:58.360 --> 30:00.240 + and deep Bolton machines don't. + +30:02.000 --> 30:04.560 + There are a lot of theory papers showing that + +30:04.560 --> 30:06.400 + under some theoretical settings, + +30:06.400 --> 30:09.640 + the GAN algorithm does actually converge. + +30:10.720 --> 30:14.200 + But those settings are restricted enough + +30:14.200 --> 30:17.560 + that they don't necessarily explain the whole picture + +30:17.560 --> 30:20.760 + in terms of all the results that we see in practice. + +30:20.760 --> 30:22.360 + So taking a step back, + +30:22.360 --> 30:24.880 + can you, in the same way as we talked about deep learning, + +30:24.880 --> 30:28.440 + can you tell me what generative adversarial networks are? + +30:29.480 --> 30:31.400 + Yeah, so generative adversarial networks + +30:31.400 --> 30:34.000 + are a particular kind of generative model. + +30:34.000 --> 30:36.320 + A generative model is a machine learning model + +30:36.320 --> 30:38.880 + that can train on some set of data. + +30:38.880 --> 30:41.280 + Like say you have a collection of photos of cats + +30:41.280 --> 30:44.040 + and you want to generate more photos of cats, + +30:44.040 --> 30:47.120 + or you want to estimate a probability distribution + +30:47.120 --> 30:49.840 + over cats so you can ask how likely it is + +30:49.840 --> 30:51.840 + that some new image is a photo of a cat. + +30:52.920 --> 30:55.840 + GANs are one way of doing this. + +30:55.840 --> 30:59.200 + Some generative models are good at creating new data. + +30:59.200 --> 31:00.840 + Other generative models are good + +31:00.840 --> 31:02.600 + at estimating that density function + +31:02.600 --> 31:06.600 + and telling you how likely particular pieces of data are + +31:06.600 --> 31:09.760 + to come from the same distribution as the training data. + +31:09.760 --> 31:12.440 + GANs are more focused on generating samples + +31:12.440 --> 31:15.640 + rather than estimating the density function. + +31:15.640 --> 31:17.720 + There are some kinds of GANs, like flow GAN, + +31:17.720 --> 31:18.560 + that can do both, + +31:18.560 --> 31:21.680 + but mostly GANs are about generating samples, + +31:21.680 --> 31:24.240 + generating new photos of cats that look realistic. + +31:25.240 --> 31:29.360 + And they do that completely from scratch. + +31:29.360 --> 31:32.240 + It's analogous to human imagination + +31:32.240 --> 31:34.760 + when a GAN creates a new image of a cat. + +31:34.760 --> 31:39.320 + It's using a neural network to produce a cat + +31:39.320 --> 31:41.040 + that has not existed before. + +31:41.040 --> 31:44.560 + It isn't doing something like compositing photos together. + +31:44.560 --> 31:47.080 + You're not literally taking the eye off of one cat + +31:47.080 --> 31:49.000 + and the ear off of another cat. + +31:49.000 --> 31:51.320 + It's more of this digestive process + +31:51.320 --> 31:53.920 + where the neural net trains in a lot of data + +31:53.920 --> 31:55.560 + and comes up with some representation + +31:55.560 --> 31:57.360 + of the probability distribution + +31:57.360 --> 31:59.760 + and generates entirely new cats. + +31:59.760 --> 32:00.880 + There are a lot of different ways + +32:00.880 --> 32:01.960 + of building a generative model. + +32:01.960 --> 32:05.640 + What's specific to GANs is that we have a two player game + +32:05.640 --> 32:08.080 + in the game theoretic sense. + +32:08.080 --> 32:10.280 + And as the players in this game compete, + +32:10.280 --> 32:13.920 + one of them becomes able to generate realistic data. + +32:13.920 --> 32:16.120 + The first player is called the generator. + +32:16.120 --> 32:20.640 + It produces output data, such as just images, for example. + +32:20.640 --> 32:22.400 + And at the start of the learning process, + +32:22.400 --> 32:25.120 + it'll just produce completely random images. + +32:25.120 --> 32:27.360 + The other player is called the discriminator. + +32:27.360 --> 32:29.680 + The discriminator takes images as input + +32:29.680 --> 32:31.560 + and guesses whether they're real or fake. + +32:32.480 --> 32:34.200 + You train it both on real data, + +32:34.200 --> 32:36.120 + so photos that come from your training set, + +32:36.120 --> 32:37.840 + actual photos of cats. + +32:37.840 --> 32:39.880 + And you try to say that those are real. + +32:39.880 --> 32:41.920 + You also train it on images + +32:41.920 --> 32:43.840 + that come from the generator network. + +32:43.840 --> 32:46.720 + And you train it to say that those are fake. + +32:46.720 --> 32:49.200 + As the two players compete in this game, + +32:49.200 --> 32:50.920 + the discriminator tries to become better + +32:50.920 --> 32:53.280 + at recognizing whether images are real or fake. + +32:53.280 --> 32:54.760 + And the generator becomes better + +32:54.760 --> 32:56.960 + at fooling the discriminator into thinking + +32:56.960 --> 32:59.560 + that its outputs are real. + +33:00.760 --> 33:03.560 + And you can analyze this through the language of game theory + +33:03.560 --> 33:06.920 + and find that there's a Nash equilibrium + +33:06.920 --> 33:08.600 + where the generator has captured + +33:08.600 --> 33:10.800 + the correct probability distribution. + +33:10.800 --> 33:12.160 + So in the cat example, + +33:12.160 --> 33:14.560 + it makes perfectly realistic cat photos. + +33:14.560 --> 33:17.160 + And the discriminator is unable to do better + +33:17.160 --> 33:18.720 + than random guessing, + +33:18.720 --> 33:21.800 + because all the samples coming from both the data + +33:21.800 --> 33:24.000 + and the generator look equally likely + +33:24.000 --> 33:25.840 + to have come from either source. + +33:25.840 --> 33:28.320 + So do you ever sit back + +33:28.320 --> 33:31.280 + and does it just blow your mind that this thing works? + +33:31.280 --> 33:35.840 + So from very, so it's able to estimate the density function + +33:35.840 --> 33:38.640 + enough to generate realistic images. + +33:38.640 --> 33:43.640 + I mean, yeah, do you ever sit back and think, + +33:43.640 --> 33:46.760 + how does this even, this is quite incredible, + +33:46.760 --> 33:49.280 + especially where against have gone in terms of realism. + +33:49.280 --> 33:51.600 + Yeah, and not just to flatter my own work, + +33:51.600 --> 33:53.840 + but generative models, + +33:53.840 --> 33:55.400 + all of them have this property + +33:55.400 --> 33:58.800 + that if they really did what we asked them to do, + +33:58.800 --> 34:01.040 + they would do nothing but memorize the training data. + +34:01.040 --> 34:02.920 + Right, exactly. + +34:02.920 --> 34:05.720 + Models that are based on maximizing the likelihood, + +34:05.720 --> 34:08.200 + the way that you obtain the maximum likelihood + +34:08.200 --> 34:09.720 + for a specific training set + +34:09.720 --> 34:12.440 + is you assign all of your probability mass + +34:12.440 --> 34:15.120 + to the training examples and nowhere else. + +34:15.120 --> 34:18.440 + For GANs, the game is played using a training set. + +34:18.440 --> 34:21.160 + So the way that you become unbeatable in the game + +34:21.160 --> 34:23.440 + is you literally memorize training examples. + +34:25.360 --> 34:28.880 + One of my former interns wrote a paper, + +34:28.880 --> 34:31.040 + his name is Vaishnav Nagarajan, + +34:31.040 --> 34:33.080 + and he showed that it's actually hard + +34:33.080 --> 34:36.120 + for the generator to memorize the training data, + +34:36.120 --> 34:39.160 + hard in a statistical learning theory sense, + +34:39.160 --> 34:42.200 + that you can actually create reasons + +34:42.200 --> 34:47.200 + for why it would require quite a lot of learning steps + +34:48.400 --> 34:52.200 + and a lot of observations of different latent variables + +34:52.200 --> 34:54.360 + before you could memorize the training data. + +34:54.360 --> 34:55.680 + That still doesn't really explain + +34:55.680 --> 34:58.280 + why when you produce samples that are new, + +34:58.280 --> 34:59.880 + why do you get compelling images + +34:59.880 --> 35:02.400 + rather than just garbage that's different + +35:02.400 --> 35:03.800 + from the training set. + +35:03.800 --> 35:06.960 + And I don't think we really have a good answer for that, + +35:06.960 --> 35:07.920 + especially if you think about + +35:07.920 --> 35:10.240 + how many possible images are out there + +35:10.240 --> 35:15.240 + and how few images the generative model sees during training. + +35:15.440 --> 35:16.920 + It seems just unreasonable + +35:16.920 --> 35:19.200 + that generative models create new images + +35:19.200 --> 35:22.080 + as well as they do, especially considering + +35:22.080 --> 35:23.760 + that we're basically training them to memorize + +35:23.760 --> 35:25.000 + rather than generalize. + +35:26.240 --> 35:28.920 + I think part of the answer is there's a paper + +35:28.920 --> 35:31.480 + called Deep Image Prior where they show + +35:31.480 --> 35:33.080 + that you can take a convolutional net + +35:33.080 --> 35:35.000 + and you don't even need to learn the parameters of it at all. + +35:35.000 --> 35:37.640 + You just use the model architecture. + +35:37.640 --> 35:41.080 + And it's already useful for things like in painting images. + +35:41.080 --> 35:43.760 + I think that shows us that the convolutional network + +35:43.760 --> 35:45.880 + architecture captures something really important + +35:45.880 --> 35:47.960 + about the structure of images. + +35:47.960 --> 35:50.960 + And we don't need to actually use learning + +35:50.960 --> 35:52.200 + to capture all the information + +35:52.200 --> 35:54.000 + coming out of the convolutional net. + +35:55.240 --> 35:58.400 + That would imply that it would be much harder + +35:58.400 --> 36:01.240 + to make generative models in other domains. + +36:01.240 --> 36:03.600 + So far, we're able to make reasonable speech models + +36:03.600 --> 36:04.880 + and things like that. + +36:04.880 --> 36:07.440 + But to be honest, we haven't actually explored + +36:07.440 --> 36:09.800 + a whole lot of different data sets all that much. + +36:09.800 --> 36:13.920 + We don't, for example, see a lot of deep learning models + +36:13.920 --> 36:18.440 + of like biology data sets + +36:18.440 --> 36:19.880 + where you have lots of microarrays + +36:19.880 --> 36:22.240 + measuring the amount of different enzymes + +36:22.240 --> 36:23.080 + and things like that. + +36:23.080 --> 36:25.240 + So we may find that some of the progress + +36:25.240 --> 36:27.360 + that we've seen for images and speech turns out + +36:27.360 --> 36:30.120 + to really rely heavily on the model architecture. + +36:30.120 --> 36:32.960 + And we were able to do what we did for vision + +36:32.960 --> 36:36.080 + by trying to reverse engineer the human visual system. + +36:37.040 --> 36:39.800 + And maybe it'll turn out that we can't just + +36:39.800 --> 36:42.560 + use that same trick for arbitrary kinds of data. + +36:43.480 --> 36:45.920 + Right, so there's aspect of the human vision system, + +36:45.920 --> 36:49.280 + the hardware of it that makes it, + +36:49.280 --> 36:51.120 + without learning, without cognition, + +36:51.120 --> 36:53.640 + just makes it really effective at detecting the patterns + +36:53.640 --> 36:54.960 + we see in the visual world. + +36:54.960 --> 36:57.280 + Yeah, that's really interesting. + +36:57.280 --> 37:02.280 + What, in a big quick overview in your view, + +37:04.640 --> 37:06.280 + what types of GANs are there + +37:06.280 --> 37:10.080 + and what other generative models besides GANs are there? + +37:10.080 --> 37:13.360 + Yeah, so it's maybe a little bit easier to start + +37:13.360 --> 37:14.640 + with what kinds of generative models + +37:14.640 --> 37:15.920 + are there other than GANs. + +37:16.840 --> 37:20.840 + So most generative models are likelihood based + +37:20.840 --> 37:23.920 + where to train them, you have a model + +37:23.920 --> 37:27.320 + that tells you how much probability it assigns + +37:27.320 --> 37:29.080 + to a particular example, + +37:29.080 --> 37:31.480 + and you just maximize the probability assigned + +37:31.480 --> 37:33.680 + to all the training examples. + +37:33.680 --> 37:36.200 + It turns out that it's hard to design a model + +37:36.200 --> 37:39.200 + that can create really complicated images + +37:39.200 --> 37:42.280 + or really complicated audio waveforms + +37:42.280 --> 37:46.200 + and still have it be possible to estimate + +37:46.200 --> 37:51.200 + the likelihood function from a computational point of view. + +37:51.200 --> 37:53.200 + Most interesting models that you would just write + +37:53.200 --> 37:56.200 + down intuitively, it turns out that it's almost impossible + +37:56.200 --> 37:58.200 + to calculate the amount of probability + +37:58.200 --> 38:00.200 + they assign to a particular point. + +38:00.200 --> 38:04.200 + So there's a few different schools of generative models + +38:04.200 --> 38:06.200 + in the likelihood family. + +38:06.200 --> 38:09.200 + One approach is to very carefully design the model + +38:09.200 --> 38:12.200 + so that it is computationally tractable + +38:12.200 --> 38:15.200 + to measure the density it assigns to a particular point. + +38:15.200 --> 38:18.200 + So there are things like auto regressive models, + +38:18.200 --> 38:23.200 + like pixel CNN, those basically break down + +38:23.200 --> 38:26.200 + the probability distribution into a product + +38:26.200 --> 38:28.200 + over every single feature. + +38:28.200 --> 38:32.200 + So for an image, you estimate the probability of each pixel + +38:32.200 --> 38:35.200 + given all of the pixels that came before it. + +38:35.200 --> 38:37.200 + There's tricks where if you want to measure + +38:37.200 --> 38:40.200 + the density function, you can actually calculate + +38:40.200 --> 38:43.200 + the density for all these pixels more or less in parallel. + +38:44.200 --> 38:46.200 + Generating the image still tends to require you + +38:46.200 --> 38:50.200 + to go one pixel at a time, and that can be very slow. + +38:50.200 --> 38:52.200 + But there are, again, tricks for doing this + +38:52.200 --> 38:54.200 + in a hierarchical pattern where you can keep + +38:54.200 --> 38:56.200 + the runtime under control. + +38:56.200 --> 38:59.200 + Are the quality of the images it generates + +38:59.200 --> 39:02.200 + putting runtime aside pretty good? + +39:02.200 --> 39:04.200 + They're reasonable, yeah. + +39:04.200 --> 39:07.200 + I would say a lot of the best results + +39:07.200 --> 39:10.200 + are from GANs these days, but it can be hard to tell + +39:10.200 --> 39:14.200 + how much of that is based on who's studying + +39:14.200 --> 39:17.200 + which type of algorithm, if that makes sense. + +39:17.200 --> 39:19.200 + The amount of effort invested in it. + +39:19.200 --> 39:21.200 + Yeah, or the kind of expertise. + +39:21.200 --> 39:23.200 + So a lot of people who've traditionally been excited + +39:23.200 --> 39:25.200 + about graphics or art and things like that + +39:25.200 --> 39:27.200 + have gotten interested in GANs. + +39:27.200 --> 39:29.200 + And to some extent, it's hard to tell, + +39:29.200 --> 39:32.200 + are GANs doing better because they have a lot of + +39:32.200 --> 39:34.200 + graphics and art experts behind them? + +39:34.200 --> 39:36.200 + Or are GANs doing better because + +39:36.200 --> 39:38.200 + they're more computationally efficient? + +39:38.200 --> 39:40.200 + Or are GANs doing better because + +39:40.200 --> 39:43.200 + they prioritize the realism of samples + +39:43.200 --> 39:45.200 + over the accuracy of the density function? + +39:45.200 --> 39:47.200 + I think all of those are potentially + +39:47.200 --> 39:51.200 + valid explanations, and it's hard to tell. + +39:51.200 --> 39:53.200 + So can you give a brief history of GANs + +39:53.200 --> 39:59.200 + from 2014 with Paper 13? + +39:59.200 --> 40:01.200 + Yeah, so a few highlights. + +40:01.200 --> 40:03.200 + In the first paper, we just showed that + +40:03.200 --> 40:05.200 + GANs basically work. + +40:05.200 --> 40:07.200 + If you look back at the samples we had now, + +40:07.200 --> 40:09.200 + they look terrible. + +40:09.200 --> 40:11.200 + On the CFAR 10 data set, you can't even + +40:11.200 --> 40:13.200 + see the effects in them. + +40:13.200 --> 40:15.200 + Your paper, sorry, you used CFAR 10? + +40:15.200 --> 40:17.200 + We used MNIST, which is Little Handwritten Digits. + +40:17.200 --> 40:19.200 + We used the Toronto Face Database, + +40:19.200 --> 40:22.200 + which is small grayscale photos of faces. + +40:22.200 --> 40:24.200 + We did have recognizable faces. + +40:24.200 --> 40:26.200 + My colleague Bing Xu put together + +40:26.200 --> 40:29.200 + the first GAN face model for that paper. + +40:29.200 --> 40:32.200 + We also had the CFAR 10 data set, + +40:32.200 --> 40:35.200 + which is things like very small 32x32 pixels + +40:35.200 --> 40:40.200 + of cars and cats and dogs. + +40:40.200 --> 40:43.200 + For that, we didn't get recognizable objects, + +40:43.200 --> 40:46.200 + but all the deep learning people back then + +40:46.200 --> 40:48.200 + were really used to looking at these failed samples + +40:48.200 --> 40:50.200 + and kind of reading them like tea leaves. + +40:50.200 --> 40:53.200 + And people who are used to reading the tea leaves + +40:53.200 --> 40:56.200 + recognize that our tea leaves at least look different. + +40:56.200 --> 40:58.200 + Maybe not necessarily better, + +40:58.200 --> 41:01.200 + but there was something unusual about them. + +41:01.200 --> 41:03.200 + And that got a lot of us excited. + +41:03.200 --> 41:06.200 + One of the next really big steps was LAPGAN + +41:06.200 --> 41:10.200 + by Emily Denton and Sumith Chintala at Facebook AI Research, + +41:10.200 --> 41:14.200 + where they actually got really good high resolution photos + +41:14.200 --> 41:16.200 + working with GANs for the first time. + +41:16.200 --> 41:18.200 + They had a complicated system + +41:18.200 --> 41:20.200 + where they generated the image starting at low res + +41:20.200 --> 41:22.200 + and then scaling up to high res, + +41:22.200 --> 41:24.200 + but they were able to get it to work. + +41:24.200 --> 41:30.200 + And then in 2015, I believe later that same year, + +41:30.200 --> 41:35.200 + Alec Radford and Sumith Chintala and Luke Metz + +41:35.200 --> 41:38.200 + published the DC GAN paper, + +41:38.200 --> 41:41.200 + which it stands for Deep Convolutional GAN. + +41:41.200 --> 41:43.200 + It's kind of a nonunique name + +41:43.200 --> 41:46.200 + because these days basically all GANs + +41:46.200 --> 41:48.200 + and even some before that were deep and convolutional, + +41:48.200 --> 41:52.200 + but they just kind of picked a name for a really great recipe + +41:52.200 --> 41:55.200 + where they were able to actually using only one model + +41:55.200 --> 41:57.200 + instead of a multi step process, + +41:57.200 --> 42:01.200 + actually generate realistic images of faces and things like that. + +42:01.200 --> 42:05.200 + That was sort of like the beginning + +42:05.200 --> 42:07.200 + of the Cambrian explosion of GANs. + +42:07.200 --> 42:09.200 + Once you had animals that had a backbone, + +42:09.200 --> 42:12.200 + you suddenly got lots of different versions of fish + +42:12.200 --> 42:15.200 + and four legged animals and things like that. + +42:15.200 --> 42:17.200 + So DC GAN became kind of the backbone + +42:17.200 --> 42:19.200 + for many different models that came out. + +42:19.200 --> 42:21.200 + Used as a baseline even still. + +42:21.200 --> 42:23.200 + Yeah, yeah. + +42:23.200 --> 42:26.200 + And so from there, I would say some interesting things we've seen + +42:26.200 --> 42:30.200 + are there's a lot you can say about how just + +42:30.200 --> 42:33.200 + the quality of standard image generation GANs has increased, + +42:33.200 --> 42:36.200 + but what's also maybe more interesting on an intellectual level + +42:36.200 --> 42:40.200 + is how the things you can use GANs for has also changed. + +42:40.200 --> 42:44.200 + One thing is that you can use them to learn classifiers + +42:44.200 --> 42:47.200 + without having to have class labels for every example + +42:47.200 --> 42:49.200 + in your training set. + +42:49.200 --> 42:51.200 + So that's called semi supervised learning. + +42:51.200 --> 42:55.200 + My colleague at OpenAI, Tim Solomon, who's at Brain now, + +42:55.200 --> 42:57.200 + wrote a paper called + +42:57.200 --> 42:59.200 + Improved Techniques for Training GANs. + +42:59.200 --> 43:01.200 + I'm a coauthor on this paper, + +43:01.200 --> 43:03.200 + but I can't claim any credit for this particular part. + +43:03.200 --> 43:05.200 + One thing he showed on the paper is that + +43:05.200 --> 43:09.200 + you can take the GAN discriminator and use it as a classifier + +43:09.200 --> 43:12.200 + that actually tells you this image is a cat, + +43:12.200 --> 43:14.200 + this image is a dog, this image is a car, + +43:14.200 --> 43:16.200 + this image is a truck. + +43:16.200 --> 43:18.200 + And so not just to say whether the image is real or fake, + +43:18.200 --> 43:22.200 + but if it is real to say specifically what kind of object it is. + +43:22.200 --> 43:25.200 + And he found that you can train these classifiers + +43:25.200 --> 43:28.200 + with far fewer labeled examples + +43:28.200 --> 43:30.200 + than traditional classifiers. + +43:30.200 --> 43:33.200 + So if you supervise based on also + +43:33.200 --> 43:35.200 + not just your discrimination ability, + +43:35.200 --> 43:37.200 + but your ability to classify, + +43:37.200 --> 43:40.200 + you're going to converge much faster + +43:40.200 --> 43:43.200 + to being effective at being a discriminator. + +43:43.200 --> 43:44.200 + Yeah. + +43:44.200 --> 43:46.200 + So for example, for the MNIST dataset, + +43:46.200 --> 43:49.200 + you want to look at an image of a handwritten digit + +43:49.200 --> 43:53.200 + and say whether it's a zero, a one, or two, and so on. + +43:53.200 --> 43:57.200 + To get down to less than 1% accuracy, + +43:57.200 --> 44:00.200 + we required around 60,000 examples + +44:00.200 --> 44:03.200 + until maybe about 2014 or so. + +44:03.200 --> 44:07.200 + In 2016, with this semi supervised GAN project, + +44:07.200 --> 44:10.200 + Tim was able to get below 1% error + +44:10.200 --> 44:13.200 + using only 100 labeled examples. + +44:13.200 --> 44:16.200 + So that was about a 600x decrease + +44:16.200 --> 44:18.200 + in the amount of labels that he needed. + +44:18.200 --> 44:21.200 + He's still using more images than that, + +44:21.200 --> 44:23.200 + but he doesn't need to have each of them labeled as, + +44:23.200 --> 44:25.200 + you know, this one's a one, this one's a two, + +44:25.200 --> 44:27.200 + this one's a zero, and so on. + +44:27.200 --> 44:29.200 + Then to be able to, for GANs, + +44:29.200 --> 44:31.200 + to be able to generate recognizable objects, + +44:31.200 --> 44:33.200 + so objects from a particular class, + +44:33.200 --> 44:36.200 + you still need labeled data, + +44:36.200 --> 44:38.200 + because you need to know + +44:38.200 --> 44:41.200 + what it means to be a particular class cat dog. + +44:41.200 --> 44:44.200 + How do you think we can move away from that? + +44:44.200 --> 44:46.200 + Yeah, some researchers at Brain Zurich + +44:46.200 --> 44:49.200 + actually just released a really great paper + +44:49.200 --> 44:51.200 + on semi supervised GANs, + +44:51.200 --> 44:54.200 + where their goal isn't to classify, + +44:54.200 --> 44:56.200 + to make recognizable objects + +44:56.200 --> 44:58.200 + despite not having a lot of labeled data. + +44:58.200 --> 45:02.200 + They were working off of DeepMind's BigGAN project, + +45:02.200 --> 45:04.200 + and they showed that they can match + +45:04.200 --> 45:06.200 + the performance of BigGAN + +45:06.200 --> 45:10.200 + using only 10%, I believe, of the labels. + +45:10.200 --> 45:12.200 + BigGAN was trained on the ImageNet data set, + +45:12.200 --> 45:14.200 + which is about 1.2 million images, + +45:14.200 --> 45:17.200 + and had all of them labeled. + +45:17.200 --> 45:19.200 + This latest project from Brain Zurich + +45:19.200 --> 45:21.200 + shows that they're able to get away with + +45:21.200 --> 45:25.200 + having about 10% of the images labeled. + +45:25.200 --> 45:29.200 + They do that essentially using a clustering algorithm, + +45:29.200 --> 45:32.200 + where the discriminator learns to assign + +45:32.200 --> 45:34.200 + the objects to groups, + +45:34.200 --> 45:38.200 + and then this understanding that objects can be grouped + +45:38.200 --> 45:40.200 + into similar types, + +45:40.200 --> 45:43.200 + helps it to form more realistic ideas + +45:43.200 --> 45:45.200 + of what should be appearing in the image, + +45:45.200 --> 45:47.200 + because it knows that every image it creates + +45:47.200 --> 45:50.200 + has to come from one of these archetypal groups, + +45:50.200 --> 45:53.200 + rather than just being some arbitrary image. + +45:53.200 --> 45:55.200 + If you train again with no class labels, + +45:55.200 --> 45:57.200 + you tend to get things that look sort of like + +45:57.200 --> 46:00.200 + grass or water or brick or dirt, + +46:00.200 --> 46:04.200 + but without necessarily a lot going on in them. + +46:04.200 --> 46:06.200 + I think that's partly because if you look + +46:06.200 --> 46:08.200 + at a large ImageNet image, + +46:08.200 --> 46:11.200 + the object doesn't necessarily occupy the whole image, + +46:11.200 --> 46:15.200 + and so you learn to create realistic sets of pixels, + +46:15.200 --> 46:17.200 + but you don't necessarily learn + +46:17.200 --> 46:19.200 + that the object is the star of the show, + +46:19.200 --> 46:22.200 + and you want it to be in every image you make. + +46:22.200 --> 46:25.200 + Yeah, I've heard you talk about the horse, + +46:25.200 --> 46:27.200 + the zebra cycle, gang mapping, + +46:27.200 --> 46:30.200 + and how it turns out, again, + +46:30.200 --> 46:33.200 + thought provoking that horses are usually on grass, + +46:33.200 --> 46:35.200 + and zebras are usually on drier terrain, + +46:35.200 --> 46:38.200 + so when you're doing that kind of generation, + +46:38.200 --> 46:43.200 + you're going to end up generating greener horses or whatever. + +46:43.200 --> 46:45.200 + So those are connected together. + +46:45.200 --> 46:46.200 + It's not just... + +46:46.200 --> 46:47.200 + Yeah, yeah. + +46:47.200 --> 46:49.200 + You're not able to segment, + +46:49.200 --> 46:52.200 + to be able to generate in a segmental way. + +46:52.200 --> 46:55.200 + So are there other types of games you come across + +46:55.200 --> 47:00.200 + in your mind that neural networks can play with each other + +47:00.200 --> 47:05.200 + to be able to solve problems? + +47:05.200 --> 47:09.200 + Yeah, the one that I spend most of my time on is in security. + +47:09.200 --> 47:13.200 + You can model most interactions as a game + +47:13.200 --> 47:16.200 + where there's attackers trying to break your system + +47:16.200 --> 47:19.200 + or the defender trying to build a resilient system. + +47:19.200 --> 47:22.200 + There's also domain adversarial learning, + +47:22.200 --> 47:25.200 + which is an approach to domain adaptation + +47:25.200 --> 47:27.200 + that looks really a lot like GANs. + +47:27.200 --> 47:31.200 + The authors had the idea before the GAN paper came out. + +47:31.200 --> 47:33.200 + Their paper came out a little bit later, + +47:33.200 --> 47:38.200 + and they were very nice and cited the GAN paper, + +47:38.200 --> 47:41.200 + but I know that they actually had the idea before it came out. + +47:41.200 --> 47:45.200 + Domain adaptation is when you want to train a machine learning model + +47:45.200 --> 47:47.200 + in one setting called a domain, + +47:47.200 --> 47:50.200 + and then deploy it in another domain later, + +47:50.200 --> 47:52.200 + and you would like it to perform well in the new domain, + +47:52.200 --> 47:55.200 + even though the new domain is different from how it was trained. + +47:55.200 --> 47:58.200 + So, for example, you might want to train + +47:58.200 --> 48:01.200 + on a really clean image dataset like ImageNet, + +48:01.200 --> 48:03.200 + but then deploy on users phones, + +48:03.200 --> 48:06.200 + where the user is taking pictures in the dark + +48:06.200 --> 48:08.200 + and pictures while moving quickly + +48:08.200 --> 48:10.200 + and just pictures that aren't really centered + +48:10.200 --> 48:13.200 + or composed all that well. + +48:13.200 --> 48:16.200 + When you take a normal machine learning model, + +48:16.200 --> 48:19.200 + it often degrades really badly when you move to the new domain + +48:19.200 --> 48:22.200 + because it looks so different from what the model was trained on. + +48:22.200 --> 48:25.200 + Domain adaptation algorithms try to smooth out that gap, + +48:25.200 --> 48:28.200 + and the domain adversarial approach is based on + +48:28.200 --> 48:30.200 + training a feature extractor, + +48:30.200 --> 48:32.200 + where the features have the same statistics + +48:32.200 --> 48:35.200 + regardless of which domain you extracted them on. + +48:35.200 --> 48:37.200 + So, in the domain adversarial game, + +48:37.200 --> 48:39.200 + you have one player that's a feature extractor + +48:39.200 --> 48:42.200 + and another player that's a domain recognizer. + +48:42.200 --> 48:44.200 + The domain recognizer wants to look at the output + +48:44.200 --> 48:47.200 + of the feature extractor and guess which of the two domains + +48:47.200 --> 48:49.200 + the features came from. + +48:49.200 --> 48:52.200 + So, it's a lot like the real versus fake discriminator in GANs. + +48:52.200 --> 48:54.200 + And then the feature extractor, + +48:54.200 --> 48:57.200 + you can think of as loosely analogous to the generator in GANs, + +48:57.200 --> 48:59.200 + except what it's trying to do here + +48:59.200 --> 49:02.200 + is both fool the domain recognizer + +49:02.200 --> 49:05.200 + into not knowing which domain the data came from + +49:05.200 --> 49:08.200 + and also extract features that are good for classification. + +49:08.200 --> 49:13.200 + So, at the end of the day, in the cases where it works out, + +49:13.200 --> 49:18.200 + you can actually get features that work about the same + +49:18.200 --> 49:20.200 + in both domains. + +49:20.200 --> 49:22.200 + Sometimes this has a drawback where, + +49:22.200 --> 49:24.200 + in order to make things work the same in both domains, + +49:24.200 --> 49:26.200 + it just gets worse at the first one. + +49:26.200 --> 49:28.200 + But there are a lot of cases where it actually + +49:28.200 --> 49:30.200 + works out well on both. + +49:30.200 --> 49:33.200 + So, do you think of GANs being useful in the context + +49:33.200 --> 49:35.200 + of data augmentation? + +49:35.200 --> 49:37.200 + Yeah, one thing you could hope for with GANs + +49:37.200 --> 49:39.200 + is you could imagine, + +49:39.200 --> 49:41.200 + I've got a limited training set + +49:41.200 --> 49:43.200 + and I'd like to make more training data + +49:43.200 --> 49:46.200 + to train something else like a classifier. + +49:46.200 --> 49:50.200 + You could train the GAN on the training set + +49:50.200 --> 49:52.200 + and then create more data + +49:52.200 --> 49:55.200 + and then maybe the classifier would perform better + +49:55.200 --> 49:58.200 + on the test set after training on this bigger GAN generated data set. + +49:58.200 --> 50:00.200 + So, that's the simplest version + +50:00.200 --> 50:02.200 + of something you might hope would work. + +50:02.200 --> 50:05.200 + I've never heard of that particular approach working, + +50:05.200 --> 50:08.200 + but I think there's some closely related things + +50:08.200 --> 50:11.200 + that I think could work in the future + +50:11.200 --> 50:13.200 + and some that actually already have worked. + +50:13.200 --> 50:15.200 + So, if we think a little bit about what we'd be hoping for + +50:15.200 --> 50:17.200 + if we use the GAN to make more training data, + +50:17.200 --> 50:20.200 + we're hoping that the GAN will generalize + +50:20.200 --> 50:23.200 + to new examples better than the classifier would have + +50:23.200 --> 50:25.200 + generalized if it was trained on the same data. + +50:25.200 --> 50:27.200 + And I don't know of any reason to believe + +50:27.200 --> 50:30.200 + that the GAN would generalize better than the classifier would. + +50:30.200 --> 50:33.200 + But what we might hope for is that the GAN + +50:33.200 --> 50:37.200 + could generalize differently from a specific classifier. + +50:37.200 --> 50:39.200 + So, one thing I think is worth trying + +50:39.200 --> 50:41.200 + that I haven't personally tried, but someone could try is + +50:41.200 --> 50:44.200 + what if you trained a whole lot of different generative models + +50:44.200 --> 50:46.200 + on the same training set, + +50:46.200 --> 50:48.200 + create samples from all of them + +50:48.200 --> 50:50.200 + and then train a classifier on that. + +50:50.200 --> 50:52.200 + Because each of the generative models + +50:52.200 --> 50:54.200 + might generalize in a slightly different way, + +50:54.200 --> 50:56.200 + they might capture many different axes of variation + +50:56.200 --> 50:58.200 + that one individual model wouldn't. + +50:58.200 --> 51:01.200 + And then the classifier can capture all of those ideas + +51:01.200 --> 51:03.200 + by training in all of their data. + +51:03.200 --> 51:06.200 + So, it'd be a little bit like making an ensemble of classifiers. + +51:06.200 --> 51:08.200 + An ensemble of GANs in a way. + +51:08.200 --> 51:10.200 + I think that could generalize better. + +51:10.200 --> 51:12.200 + The other thing that GANs are really good for + +51:12.200 --> 51:16.200 + is not necessarily generating new data + +51:16.200 --> 51:19.200 + that's exactly like what you already have, + +51:19.200 --> 51:23.200 + but by generating new data that has different properties + +51:23.200 --> 51:25.200 + from the data you already had. + +51:25.200 --> 51:27.200 + One thing that you can do is you can create + +51:27.200 --> 51:29.200 + differentially private data. + +51:29.200 --> 51:31.200 + So, suppose that you have something like medical records + +51:31.200 --> 51:34.200 + and you don't want to train a classifier on the medical records + +51:34.200 --> 51:36.200 + and then publish the classifier + +51:36.200 --> 51:38.200 + because someone might be able to reverse engineer + +51:38.200 --> 51:40.200 + some of the medical records you trained on. + +51:40.200 --> 51:42.200 + There's a paper from Casey Green's lab + +51:42.200 --> 51:46.200 + that shows how you can train again using differential privacy. + +51:46.200 --> 51:48.200 + And then the samples from the GAN + +51:48.200 --> 51:51.200 + still have the same differential privacy guarantees + +51:51.200 --> 51:53.200 + as the parameters of the GAN. + +51:53.200 --> 51:55.200 + So, you can make fake patient data + +51:55.200 --> 51:57.200 + for other researchers to use + +51:57.200 --> 51:59.200 + and they can do almost anything they want with that data + +51:59.200 --> 52:02.200 + because it doesn't come from real people. + +52:02.200 --> 52:04.200 + And the differential privacy mechanism + +52:04.200 --> 52:07.200 + gives you clear guarantees on how much + +52:07.200 --> 52:09.200 + the original people's data has been protected. + +52:09.200 --> 52:11.200 + That's really interesting, actually. + +52:11.200 --> 52:13.200 + I haven't heard you talk about that before. + +52:13.200 --> 52:15.200 + In terms of fairness, + +52:15.200 --> 52:19.200 + I've seen from AAAI your talk, + +52:19.200 --> 52:21.200 + how can adversarial machine learning + +52:21.200 --> 52:23.200 + help models be more fair + +52:23.200 --> 52:25.200 + with respect to sensitive variables? + +52:25.200 --> 52:28.200 + Yeah. So, there's a paper from Emma Storky's lab + +52:28.200 --> 52:31.200 + about how to learn machine learning models + +52:31.200 --> 52:34.200 + that are incapable of using specific variables. + +52:34.200 --> 52:36.200 + So, say, for example, you wanted to make predictions + +52:36.200 --> 52:39.200 + that are not affected by gender. + +52:39.200 --> 52:41.200 + It isn't enough to just leave gender + +52:41.200 --> 52:43.200 + out of the input to the model. + +52:43.200 --> 52:45.200 + You can often infer gender from a lot of other characteristics. + +52:45.200 --> 52:47.200 + Like, say that you have the person's name, + +52:47.200 --> 52:49.200 + but you're not told their gender. + +52:49.200 --> 52:53.200 + Well, if their name is Ian, they're kind of obviously a man. + +52:53.200 --> 52:55.200 + So, what you'd like to do is make a machine learning model + +52:55.200 --> 52:58.200 + that can still take in a lot of different attributes + +52:58.200 --> 53:02.200 + and make a really accurate informed prediction, + +53:02.200 --> 53:05.200 + but be confident that it isn't reverse engineering gender + +53:05.200 --> 53:08.200 + or another sensitive variable internally. + +53:08.200 --> 53:10.200 + You can do that using something very similar + +53:10.200 --> 53:12.200 + to the domain adversarial approach, + +53:12.200 --> 53:15.200 + where you have one player that's a feature extractor + +53:15.200 --> 53:18.200 + and another player that's a feature analyzer. + +53:18.200 --> 53:21.200 + And you want to make sure that the feature analyzer + +53:21.200 --> 53:24.200 + is not able to guess the value of the sensitive variable + +53:24.200 --> 53:26.200 + that you're trying to keep private. + +53:26.200 --> 53:29.200 + Right. Yeah, I love this approach. + +53:29.200 --> 53:34.200 + So, with the feature, you're not able to infer + +53:34.200 --> 53:36.200 + the sensitive variables. + +53:36.200 --> 53:39.200 + It's brilliant. It's quite brilliant and simple, actually. + +53:39.200 --> 53:42.200 + Another way I think that GANs in particular + +53:42.200 --> 53:44.200 + could be used for fairness would be + +53:44.200 --> 53:46.200 + to make something like a cycle GAN, + +53:46.200 --> 53:49.200 + where you can take data from one domain + +53:49.200 --> 53:51.200 + and convert it into another. + +53:51.200 --> 53:54.200 + We've seen cycle GAN turning horses into zebras. + +53:54.200 --> 53:59.200 + We've seen other unsupervised GANs made by Mingyu Liu + +53:59.200 --> 54:02.200 + doing things like turning day photos into night photos. + +54:02.200 --> 54:05.200 + I think for fairness, you could imagine + +54:05.200 --> 54:08.200 + taking records for people in one group + +54:08.200 --> 54:11.200 + and transforming them into analogous people in another group + +54:11.200 --> 54:14.200 + and testing to see if they're treated equitably + +54:14.200 --> 54:16.200 + across those two groups. + +54:16.200 --> 54:18.200 + There's a lot of things that would be hard to get right + +54:18.200 --> 54:21.200 + and make sure that the conversion process itself is fair. + +54:21.200 --> 54:24.200 + And I don't think it's anywhere near something + +54:24.200 --> 54:26.200 + that we could actually use yet. + +54:26.200 --> 54:28.200 + But if you could design that conversion process very carefully, + +54:28.200 --> 54:30.200 + it might give you a way of doing audits + +54:30.200 --> 54:33.200 + where you say, what if we took people from this group, + +54:33.200 --> 54:35.200 + converted them into equivalent people in another group? + +54:35.200 --> 54:39.200 + Does the system actually treat them how it ought to? + +54:39.200 --> 54:41.200 + That's also really interesting. + +54:41.200 --> 54:46.200 + You know, in popular press + +54:46.200 --> 54:48.200 + and in general, in our imagination, + +54:48.200 --> 54:51.200 + you think, well, GANs are able to generate data + +54:51.200 --> 54:54.200 + and you start to think about deep fakes + +54:54.200 --> 54:57.200 + or being able to sort of maliciously generate data + +54:57.200 --> 55:00.200 + that fakes the identity of other people. + +55:00.200 --> 55:03.200 + Is this something of a concern to you? + +55:03.200 --> 55:06.200 + Is this something, if you look 10, 20 years into the future, + +55:06.200 --> 55:10.200 + is that something that pops up in your work, + +55:10.200 --> 55:13.200 + in the work of the community that's working on generative models? + +55:13.200 --> 55:15.200 + I'm a lot less concerned about 20 years from now + +55:15.200 --> 55:17.200 + than the next few years. + +55:17.200 --> 55:20.200 + I think there will be a kind of bumpy cultural transition + +55:20.200 --> 55:22.200 + as people encounter this idea + +55:22.200 --> 55:25.200 + that there can be very realistic videos and audio that aren't real. + +55:25.200 --> 55:27.200 + I think 20 years from now, + +55:27.200 --> 55:30.200 + people will mostly understand that you shouldn't believe + +55:30.200 --> 55:33.200 + something is real just because you saw a video of it. + +55:33.200 --> 55:37.200 + People will expect to see that it's been cryptographically signed + +55:37.200 --> 55:41.200 + or have some other mechanism to make them believe + +55:41.200 --> 55:43.200 + that the content is real. + +55:43.200 --> 55:45.200 + There's already people working on this, + +55:45.200 --> 55:47.200 + like there's a startup called TruePick + +55:47.200 --> 55:50.200 + that provides a lot of mechanisms for authenticating + +55:50.200 --> 55:52.200 + that an image is real. + +55:52.200 --> 55:55.200 + They're maybe not quite up to having a state actor + +55:55.200 --> 55:59.200 + try to evade their verification techniques, + +55:59.200 --> 56:02.200 + but it's something that people are already working on + +56:02.200 --> 56:04.200 + and I think will get right eventually. + +56:04.200 --> 56:08.200 + So you think authentication will eventually win out? + +56:08.200 --> 56:11.200 + So being able to authenticate that this is real and this is not? + +56:11.200 --> 56:13.200 + Yeah. + +56:13.200 --> 56:15.200 + As opposed to GANs just getting better and better + +56:15.200 --> 56:18.200 + or generative models being able to get better and better + +56:18.200 --> 56:21.200 + to where the nature of what is real is normal. + +56:21.200 --> 56:25.200 + I don't think we'll ever be able to look at the pixels of a photo + +56:25.200 --> 56:28.200 + and tell you for sure that it's real or not real, + +56:28.200 --> 56:32.200 + and I think it would actually be somewhat dangerous + +56:32.200 --> 56:34.200 + to rely on that approach too much. + +56:34.200 --> 56:36.200 + If you make a really good fake detector + +56:36.200 --> 56:38.200 + and then someone's able to fool your fake detector + +56:38.200 --> 56:41.200 + and your fake detector says this image is not fake, + +56:41.200 --> 56:43.200 + then it's even more credible + +56:43.200 --> 56:46.200 + than if you've never made a fake detector in the first place. + +56:46.200 --> 56:50.200 + What I do think we'll get to is systems + +56:50.200 --> 56:52.200 + that we can kind of use behind the scenes + +56:52.200 --> 56:55.200 + to make estimates of what's going on + +56:55.200 --> 56:59.200 + and maybe not use them in court for a definitive analysis. + +56:59.200 --> 57:04.200 + I also think we will likely get better authentication systems + +57:04.200 --> 57:08.200 + where, imagine that every phone cryptographically + +57:08.200 --> 57:10.200 + signs everything that comes out of it. + +57:10.200 --> 57:12.200 + You wouldn't be able to conclusively tell + +57:12.200 --> 57:14.200 + that an image was real, + +57:14.200 --> 57:18.200 + but you would be able to tell somebody who knew + +57:18.200 --> 57:21.200 + the appropriate private key for this phone + +57:21.200 --> 57:24.200 + was actually able to sign this image + +57:24.200 --> 57:28.200 + and upload it to this server at this time stamp. + +57:28.200 --> 57:31.200 + You could imagine maybe you make phones + +57:31.200 --> 57:35.200 + that have the private keys hardware embedded in them. + +57:35.200 --> 57:37.200 + If a state security agency + +57:37.200 --> 57:39.200 + really wants to infiltrate the company, + +57:39.200 --> 57:42.200 + they could probably plant a private key of their choice + +57:42.200 --> 57:44.200 + or break open the chip + +57:44.200 --> 57:46.200 + and learn the private key or something like that. + +57:46.200 --> 57:48.200 + But it would make it a lot harder + +57:48.200 --> 57:51.200 + for an adversary with fewer resources to fake things. + +57:51.200 --> 57:53.200 + For most of us, it would be okay. + +57:53.200 --> 57:58.200 + You mentioned the beer and the bar and the new ideas. + +57:58.200 --> 58:01.200 + You were able to come up with this new idea + +58:01.200 --> 58:04.200 + pretty quickly and implement it pretty quickly. + +58:04.200 --> 58:06.200 + Do you think there are still many + +58:06.200 --> 58:08.200 + such groundbreaking ideas in deep learning + +58:08.200 --> 58:10.200 + that could be developed so quickly? + +58:10.200 --> 58:13.200 + Yeah, I do think that there are a lot of ideas + +58:13.200 --> 58:15.200 + that can be developed really quickly. + +58:15.200 --> 58:18.200 + GANs were probably a little bit of an outlier + +58:18.200 --> 58:20.200 + on the whole one hour time scale. + +58:20.200 --> 58:24.200 + But just in terms of low resource ideas + +58:24.200 --> 58:26.200 + where you do something really different + +58:26.200 --> 58:29.200 + on a high scale and get a big payback, + +58:29.200 --> 58:32.200 + I think it's not as likely that you'll see that + +58:32.200 --> 58:35.200 + in terms of things like core machine learning technologies + +58:35.200 --> 58:37.200 + like a better classifier + +58:37.200 --> 58:39.200 + or a better reinforcement learning algorithm + +58:39.200 --> 58:41.200 + or a better generative model. + +58:41.200 --> 58:43.200 + If I had the GAN idea today, + +58:43.200 --> 58:45.200 + it would be a lot harder to prove that it was useful + +58:45.200 --> 58:47.200 + than it was back in 2014 + +58:47.200 --> 58:50.200 + because I would need to get it running on something + +58:50.200 --> 58:54.200 + like ImageNet or Celeb A at high resolution. + +58:54.200 --> 58:56.200 + Those take a while to train. + +58:56.200 --> 58:58.200 + You couldn't train it in an hour + +58:58.200 --> 59:01.200 + and know that it was something really new and exciting. + +59:01.200 --> 59:04.200 + Back in 2014, training on MNIST was enough. + +59:04.200 --> 59:07.200 + But there are other areas of machine learning + +59:07.200 --> 59:11.200 + where I think a new idea could actually be developed + +59:11.200 --> 59:13.200 + really quickly with low resources. + +59:13.200 --> 59:15.200 + What's your intuition about what areas + +59:15.200 --> 59:18.200 + of machine learning are ripe for this? + +59:18.200 --> 59:23.200 + Yeah, so I think fairness and interpretability + +59:23.200 --> 59:27.200 + are areas where we just really don't have any idea + +59:27.200 --> 59:29.200 + how anything should be done yet. + +59:29.200 --> 59:31.200 + Like for interpretability, + +59:31.200 --> 59:33.200 + I don't think we even have the right definitions. + +59:33.200 --> 59:36.200 + And even just defining a really useful concept, + +59:36.200 --> 59:38.200 + you don't even need to run any experiments. + +59:38.200 --> 59:40.200 + It could have a huge impact on the field. + +59:40.200 --> 59:43.200 + We've seen that, for example, in differential privacy + +59:43.200 --> 59:45.200 + that Cynthia Dwork and her collaborators + +59:45.200 --> 59:48.200 + made this technical definition of privacy + +59:48.200 --> 59:50.200 + where before a lot of things were really mushy + +59:50.200 --> 59:53.200 + and with that definition, you could actually design + +59:53.200 --> 59:55.200 + randomized algorithms for accessing databases + +59:55.200 --> 59:59.200 + and guarantee that they preserved individual people's privacy + +59:59.200 --> 1:00:03.200 + in a mathematical quantitative sense. + +1:00:03.200 --> 1:00:05.200 + Right now, we all talk a lot about + +1:00:05.200 --> 1:00:07.200 + how interpretable different machine learning algorithms are, + +1:00:07.200 --> 1:00:09.200 + but it's really just people's opinion. + +1:00:09.200 --> 1:00:11.200 + And everybody probably has a different idea + +1:00:11.200 --> 1:00:13.200 + of what interpretability means in their head. + +1:00:13.200 --> 1:00:16.200 + If we could define some concept related to interpretability + +1:00:16.200 --> 1:00:18.200 + that's actually measurable, + +1:00:18.200 --> 1:00:20.200 + that would be a huge leap forward + +1:00:20.200 --> 1:00:24.200 + even without a new algorithm that increases that quantity. + +1:00:24.200 --> 1:00:28.200 + And also, once we had the definition of differential privacy, + +1:00:28.200 --> 1:00:31.200 + it was fast to get the algorithms that guaranteed it. + +1:00:31.200 --> 1:00:33.200 + So you could imagine once we have definitions + +1:00:33.200 --> 1:00:35.200 + of good concepts and interpretability, + +1:00:35.200 --> 1:00:37.200 + we might be able to provide the algorithms + +1:00:37.200 --> 1:00:42.200 + that have the interpretability guarantees quickly, too. + +1:00:42.200 --> 1:00:46.200 + What do you think it takes to build a system + +1:00:46.200 --> 1:00:48.200 + with human level intelligence + +1:00:48.200 --> 1:00:51.200 + as we quickly venture into the philosophical? + +1:00:51.200 --> 1:00:55.200 + So artificial general intelligence, what do you think it takes? + +1:00:55.200 --> 1:01:01.200 + I think that it definitely takes better environments + +1:01:01.200 --> 1:01:03.200 + than we currently have for training agents, + +1:01:03.200 --> 1:01:08.200 + that we want them to have a really wide diversity of experiences. + +1:01:08.200 --> 1:01:11.200 + I also think it's going to take really a lot of computation. + +1:01:11.200 --> 1:01:13.200 + It's hard to imagine exactly how much. + +1:01:13.200 --> 1:01:16.200 + So you're optimistic about simulation, + +1:01:16.200 --> 1:01:19.200 + simulating a variety of environments as the path forward + +1:01:19.200 --> 1:01:21.200 + as opposed to operating in the real world? + +1:01:21.200 --> 1:01:23.200 + I think it's a necessary ingredient. + +1:01:23.200 --> 1:01:27.200 + I don't think that we're going to get to artificial general intelligence + +1:01:27.200 --> 1:01:29.200 + by training on fixed data sets + +1:01:29.200 --> 1:01:32.200 + or by thinking really hard about the problem. + +1:01:32.200 --> 1:01:36.200 + I think that the agent really needs to interact + +1:01:36.200 --> 1:01:41.200 + and have a variety of experiences within the same lifespan. + +1:01:41.200 --> 1:01:45.200 + And today we have many different models that can each do one thing, + +1:01:45.200 --> 1:01:49.200 + and we tend to train them on one dataset or one RL environment. + +1:01:49.200 --> 1:01:53.200 + Sometimes there are actually papers about getting one set of parameters + +1:01:53.200 --> 1:01:56.200 + to perform well in many different RL environments, + +1:01:56.200 --> 1:01:59.200 + but we don't really have anything like an agent + +1:01:59.200 --> 1:02:02.200 + that goes seamlessly from one type of experience to another + +1:02:02.200 --> 1:02:05.200 + and really integrates all the different things that it does + +1:02:05.200 --> 1:02:07.200 + over the course of its life. + +1:02:07.200 --> 1:02:10.200 + When we do see multiagent environments, + +1:02:10.200 --> 1:02:16.200 + they tend to be similar environments. + +1:02:16.200 --> 1:02:19.200 + All of them are playing an action based video game. + +1:02:19.200 --> 1:02:24.200 + We don't really have an agent that goes from playing a video game + +1:02:24.200 --> 1:02:27.200 + to reading the Wall Street Journal + +1:02:27.200 --> 1:02:32.200 + to predicting how effective a molecule will be as a drug or something like that. + +1:02:32.200 --> 1:02:36.200 + What do you think is a good test for intelligence in your view? + +1:02:36.200 --> 1:02:41.200 + There's been a lot of benchmarks started with Alan Turing, + +1:02:41.200 --> 1:02:46.200 + natural conversation being a good benchmark for intelligence. + +1:02:46.200 --> 1:02:53.200 + What would you and good fellows sit back and be really damn impressed + +1:02:53.200 --> 1:02:55.200 + if a system was able to accomplish? + +1:02:55.200 --> 1:02:59.200 + Something that doesn't take a lot of glue from human engineers. + +1:02:59.200 --> 1:03:07.200 + Imagine that instead of having to go to the CIFAR website and download CIFAR 10 + +1:03:07.200 --> 1:03:11.200 + and then write a Python script to parse it and all that, + +1:03:11.200 --> 1:03:16.200 + you could just point an agent at the CIFAR 10 problem + +1:03:16.200 --> 1:03:20.200 + and it downloads and extracts the data and trains a model + +1:03:20.200 --> 1:03:22.200 + and starts giving you predictions. + +1:03:22.200 --> 1:03:28.200 + I feel like something that doesn't need to have every step of the pipeline assembled for it + +1:03:28.200 --> 1:03:30.200 + definitely understands what it's doing. + +1:03:30.200 --> 1:03:34.200 + Is AutoML moving into that direction or are you thinking way even bigger? + +1:03:34.200 --> 1:03:39.200 + AutoML has mostly been moving toward once we've built all the glue, + +1:03:39.200 --> 1:03:44.200 + can the machine learning system design the architecture really well? + +1:03:44.200 --> 1:03:49.200 + I'm more of saying if something knows how to pre process the data + +1:03:49.200 --> 1:03:52.200 + so that it successfully accomplishes the task, + +1:03:52.200 --> 1:03:56.200 + then it would be very hard to argue that it doesn't truly understand the task + +1:03:56.200 --> 1:03:58.200 + in some fundamental sense. + +1:03:58.200 --> 1:04:02.200 + I don't necessarily know that that's the philosophical definition of intelligence, + +1:04:02.200 --> 1:04:05.200 + but that's something that would be really cool to build that would be really useful + +1:04:05.200 --> 1:04:09.200 + and would impress me and would convince me that we've made a step forward in real AI. + +1:04:09.200 --> 1:04:13.200 + You give it the URL for Wikipedia + +1:04:13.200 --> 1:04:18.200 + and then next day expect it to be able to solve CIFAR 10. + +1:04:18.200 --> 1:04:22.200 + Or you type in a paragraph explaining what you want it to do + +1:04:22.200 --> 1:04:28.200 + and it figures out what web searches it should run and downloads all the necessary ingredients. + +1:04:28.200 --> 1:04:37.200 + So you have a very clear, calm way of speaking, no ums, easy to edit. + +1:04:37.200 --> 1:04:44.200 + I've seen comments for both you and I have been identified as both potentially being robots. + +1:04:44.200 --> 1:04:48.200 + If you have to prove to the world that you are indeed human, how would you do it? + +1:04:48.200 --> 1:04:53.200 + I can understand thinking that I'm a robot. + +1:04:53.200 --> 1:04:57.200 + It's the flip side of the Turing test, I think. + +1:04:57.200 --> 1:05:00.200 + Yeah, the prove your human test. + +1:05:00.200 --> 1:05:08.200 + Intellectually, so you have to, is there something that's truly unique in your mind + +1:05:08.200 --> 1:05:13.200 + as it doesn't go back to just natural language again, just being able to talk the way out of it? + +1:05:13.200 --> 1:05:16.200 + So proving that I'm not a robot with today's technology, + +1:05:16.200 --> 1:05:18.200 + that's pretty straightforward. + +1:05:18.200 --> 1:05:25.200 + My conversation today hasn't veered off into talking about the stock market or something because it's my training data. + +1:05:25.200 --> 1:05:31.200 + But I guess more generally trying to prove that something is real from the content alone is incredibly hard. + +1:05:31.200 --> 1:05:37.200 + That's one of the main things I've gotten out of my GAN research, that you can simulate almost anything + +1:05:37.200 --> 1:05:42.200 + and so you have to really step back to a separate channel to prove that something is real. + +1:05:42.200 --> 1:05:48.200 + So I guess I should have had myself stamped on a blockchain when I was born or something, but I didn't do that. + +1:05:48.200 --> 1:05:52.200 + So according to my own research methodology, there's just no way to know at this point. + +1:05:52.200 --> 1:05:59.200 + So what last question, problem stands out for you that you're really excited about challenging in the near future? + +1:05:59.200 --> 1:06:06.200 + I think resistance to adversarial examples, figuring out how to make machine learning secure against an adversary + +1:06:06.200 --> 1:06:11.200 + who wants to interfere it and control it, that is one of the most important things researchers today could solve. + +1:06:11.200 --> 1:06:17.200 + In all domains, image, language, driving and everything. + +1:06:17.200 --> 1:06:22.200 + I guess I'm most concerned about domains we haven't really encountered yet. + +1:06:22.200 --> 1:06:28.200 + Imagine 20 years from now when we're using advanced AIs to do things we haven't even thought of yet. + +1:06:28.200 --> 1:06:37.200 + If you ask people what are the important problems in security of phones in 2002, + +1:06:37.200 --> 1:06:43.200 + I don't think we would have anticipated that we're using them for nearly as many things as we're using them for today. + +1:06:43.200 --> 1:06:47.200 + I think it's going to be like that with AI that you can kind of try to speculate about where it's going, + +1:06:47.200 --> 1:06:53.200 + but really the business opportunities that end up taking off would be hard to predict ahead of time. + +1:06:53.200 --> 1:06:58.200 + What you can predict ahead of time is that almost anything you can do with machine learning, + +1:06:58.200 --> 1:07:04.200 + you would like to make sure that people can't get it to do what they want rather than what you want + +1:07:04.200 --> 1:07:08.200 + just by showing it a funny QR code or a funny input pattern. + +1:07:08.200 --> 1:07:12.200 + You think that the set of methodology to do that can be bigger than any one domain? + +1:07:12.200 --> 1:07:15.200 + I think so, yeah. + +1:07:15.200 --> 1:07:20.200 + One methodology that I think is not a specific methodology, + +1:07:20.200 --> 1:07:25.200 + but a category of solutions that I'm excited about today is making dynamic models + +1:07:25.200 --> 1:07:28.200 + that change every time they make a prediction. + +1:07:28.200 --> 1:07:32.200 + Right now, we tend to train models and then after they're trained, we freeze them. + +1:07:32.200 --> 1:07:37.200 + We just use the same rule to classify everything that comes in from then on. + +1:07:37.200 --> 1:07:40.200 + That's really a sitting duck from a security point of view. + +1:07:40.200 --> 1:07:44.200 + If you always output the same answer for the same input, + +1:07:44.200 --> 1:07:49.200 + then people can just run inputs through until they find a mistake that benefits them, + +1:07:49.200 --> 1:07:53.200 + and then they use the same mistake over and over and over again. + +1:07:53.200 --> 1:08:00.200 + I think having a model that updates its predictions so that it's harder to predict what you're going to get + +1:08:00.200 --> 1:08:04.200 + will make it harder for an adversary to really take control of the system + +1:08:04.200 --> 1:08:06.200 + and make it do what they want it to do. + +1:08:06.200 --> 1:08:10.200 + Yeah, models that maintain a bit of a sense of mystery about them + +1:08:10.200 --> 1:08:12.200 + because they always keep changing. + +1:08:12.200 --> 1:08:14.200 + Ian, thanks so much for talking today. It was awesome. + +1:08:14.200 --> 1:08:36.200 + Thank you for coming in. It's great to see you. +