Black lung benefits include both cash assistance and medical benefits. Maximum cash assistance payments generally ranged from about $650 to $1,300 per month in fiscal year 2017, depending on the number of dependents the miner has. Miners receiving cash assistance are also eligible for medical benefits that cover the treatment of their black-lung- related conditions, which may include hospital and nursing care, rehabilitation services, and drug and equipment charges, according to DOL documentation. DOL estimates that the average annual cost for medical treatment in fiscal year 2017 was approximately $6,980 per miner. There were about 25,700 total beneficiaries (primary and dependents) receiving black lung benefits during fiscal year 2017 (see fig. 1). The decrease in the number of beneficiaries over time has resulted from a combination of declining coal mining employment and an aging beneficiary population, according to DOL officials. Further, black lung beneficiaries could increase in the near term due to the increased occurrence of black lung disease and its most severe form, progressive massive fibrosis, particularly among Appalachian coal miners, according to HHS officials. Black lung claims are processed by DOL’s Office of Workers’ Compensation Programs. Contested claims are adjudicated by DOL’s Office of Administrative Law Judges, which issues decisions that can be appealed to the Benefits Review Board. Claimants and mine operators may further appeal these agency decisions to the federal courts. If an award is contested, claimants can receive interim benefits, which are generally paid from the Trust Fund according to DOL officials, while their claims are in the appeals process. Final awards are either funded by mine operators—who are identified as the responsible employers of claimants—or the Trust Fund, when responsible employers cannot be identified or do not pay. In fiscal year 2017, black lung claims had an approval rate of about 29 percent, according to DOL data. Of the 19,430 primary black lung beneficiaries receiving benefits during fiscal year 2017, 64 percent (12,464) were paid from the Trust Fund, 25 percent (4,798) were paid by liable mine operators, and 11 percent (2,168) were receiving interim benefits, according to DOL officials. Black Lung Disability Trust Fund revenue is primarily obtained from mine operators through the coal tax. The coal tax is imposed at two rates, depending on whether the coal is extracted from underground or surface mines. The current tax rates are $1.10 per ton of underground-mined coal and $0.55 per ton of surface-mined coal, up to 4.4 percent of the sales price. Therefore, if a ton of underground-mined coal is sold for less than $25, than the tax paid would be less than $1.10. For instance, if a ton of underground-mined coal sold for $20, than it would be taxed at 4.4 percent of the sales price, or $0.88. To a lesser extent, the Trust Fund also receives other miscellaneous revenue from interest payments, and various fines and penalties paid by mine operators, among other sources, according to DOL documentation. Coal tax revenue is collected from mine operators by Treasury’s Internal Revenue Service and then transferred to the Trust Fund where it is then used by DOL officials to pay black lung benefits and the costs of administering the program. Trust Fund expenditures include, among other things, black lung benefit payments, certain administrative costs incurred by DOL and Treasury to administer the black lung benefits program, and debt repayments. When necessary for the Trust Fund to make relevant expenditures under federal law, the Trust Fund borrows from the Treasury’s general fund. When this occurs, the federal government is essentially borrowing from itself—and hence from the general taxpayer—to fund its benefit payments and other expenditures. Multiple factors have challenged Trust Fund finances since it was established about 40 years ago. Its expenditures have consistently exceeded its revenue, interest payments have grown, and legislative actions taken that were expected to improve Trust Fund finances did not completely address its debt. Combined black lung benefit payments and program administrative costs exceeded Trust Fund revenue every year for the program’s first decade (fiscal years 1979 through 1989), resulting in the accrual of debt. During the Trust Fund’s first three fiscal years in particular, revenue covered less than 40 percent of the Trust Fund’s combined benefit payments and administrative costs. For instance, in fiscal year 1980, the Trust Fund received about $251 million in revenue and paid about $726 million in black lung benefits and administrative costs. Beginning in 1982, revenue increased as a result of the Black Lung Benefits Revenue Act of 1981 that doubled the coal tax rates from $0.50 to $1 per ton of underground-mined coal and from $0.25 to $0.50 per ton of surface-mined coal, up to 4 percent of the sales price. Even with the tax rate increase, combined benefit payments and administrative costs continued to exceed revenue throughout the 1980s (see fig. 2). As a result, the Trust Fund borrowed from Treasury’s general fund to cover the annual differences between its expenditures and revenues, and by fiscal year 1989 the Trust Fund’s outstanding debt to Treasury’s general fund exceeded $3 billion. Beginning in fiscal year 1990, Trust Fund revenue generally began to exceed combined benefit payments and administrative costs, and, in fact, total Trust Fund cumulative revenue collected from fiscal years 1979 through 2017 exceeded total cumulative benefit payments and administrative costs incurred during these years. However, interest owed from earlier years of borrowing led to more borrowing and debt. From fiscal years 1979 through 1989, the Trust Fund borrowed—primarily through 30-year term loans according to Treasury officials—from Treasury’s general fund at interest rates that varied from about 6.5 percent to about 13.9 percent. In fiscal year 1985, for instance, the Trust Fund paid about $275 million in interest, which was equal to about half of the total revenue collected that year. Since fiscal year 1990, revenue has generally exceeded combined benefit payments and administrative costs, although interest payments on the Trust Fund’s outstanding debt kept the fund in a position whereby its total expenditures continued to exceed its total revenues. As a result, the principal amount of the Trust Fund’s total outstanding debt to Treasury’s general fund increased and exceeded $10 billion by fiscal year 2008. Legislation has been enacted over the years that was expected to improve Trust Fund finances: In 1981, the Black Lung Benefits Revenue Act of 1981 doubled the coal tax rates from $0.50 cents to $1 per ton of underground-mined coal, and from $0.25 cents to $0.50 cents per ton of surface-mined coal, up to 4 percent of the sales price (as mentioned previously). In 1986, the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 established a 5 year moratorium on interest accrual with respect to repayable advances to the Trust Fund (which we refer to as annual borrowing from Treasury’s general fund), and increased the coal tax rates to $1.10 per ton of underground-mined coal, and $0.55 per ton of surface-mined coal (up to 4.4 percent of the sales price), where they have remained since. In 2008, the EIEA included provisions that were expected to eliminate the Trust Fund’s debt. Specifically, EIEA (1) generally extended the coal tax rates at their current rates until December 31, 2018 (after which they are scheduled to decrease to their original levels of $0.50 per ton of underground-mined coal, and $0.25 per ton of surface- mined coal, up to 2 percent of the sales price); (2) provided for a one- time federal appropriation toward Trust Fund debt forgiveness (about $6.5 billion, according to DOL data); and (3) provided for the refinancing of the Trust Fund’s debt that was not forgiven as a result of EIEA (which we refer to as the Trust Fund’s legacy debt). Specifically, the Trust Fund’s legacy debt was refinanced with more favorable interest rates, according to DOL data. Interest rates on the refinanced legacy debt range from about 1.4 percent to about 4.5 percent. The forgiveness and refinancing of Trust Fund debt along with extending the current coal tax rates through 2018 were expected to result in annual tax revenue that could be used to pay down interest and principal on the Trust Fund’s legacy debt, according to DOL and Treasury officials. These officials said that models showed that debt would be eliminated by fiscal year 2040; however, they noted that coal tax revenue has been less than originally projected due, in part, to the 2008 recession and increased market competition from other energy sources. As a result, the Trust Fund’s total expenditures continued to exceed revenue and the Trust Fund borrowed from Treasury’s general fund each year from fiscal years 2010 through 2017 to cover debt repayments expenditures. In fiscal year 2017, the Trust Fund’s total principal amount of outstanding debt, which includes its legacy debt and the amount borrowed from Treasury’s general fund that year, was about $4.3 billion (see fig. 3). Trust Fund borrowing will likely continue to increase from fiscal years 2019 through 2050 due, in part, to the scheduled coal tax rate decrease of about 55 percent that will take effect in 2019 and declining coal production, according to our moderate simulation. We simulated the effects of the scheduled 2019 tax rate decrease on Trust Fund finances through 2050, and in this report, we generally present the results of a moderate case set of assumptions (see table 1). These simulations are not predictions of what will happen, but rather models of what could happen given certain assumptions. For more information on our simulation methodology see appendix I. In addition to the moderate case assumptions, we also simulated how Trust Fund debt could change through 2050 given various other assumptions, and the full range of results for all of our simulations are presented in appendix II. Our moderate case simulation suggests that Trust Fund revenue may decrease, from about $485 million in fiscal year 2018 to about $298 million in fiscal year 2019, due, in part, to the scheduled approximate 55 percent decrease in the coal tax. Our simulation, which incorporates EIA data on future expected coal production, also shows that annual Trust Fund revenue will likely continue to decrease beyond fiscal year 2019 due, in part, to declining coal production. Domestic coal production has declined from about 1.2 billion tons in 2008 to about 728 million tons in 2016, according to EIA. Based on these projections, our moderate simulation shows that Trust Fund annual revenue may continue to decrease from about $298 million in fiscal year 2019 to about $197 million in fiscal year 2050 (see fig. 4). With the scheduled 2019 tax rate decrease, our moderate case simulation suggests that expected revenue will likely be insufficient to cover combined black lung benefit payments and administrative costs, as well as debt repayment expenditures. Specifically, our moderate case simulation suggests that revenue may not be sufficient to cover beneficiary payments and administrative costs from fiscal years 2020 through 2050 (see fig. 5). For instance, in fiscal year 2029, simulated benefit payments and administrative costs will likely exceed simulated revenue by about $99 million. These annual deficits will likely decrease over time to about $4 million by fiscal year 2050 due, in part, to the assumed continued net decline in total black lung beneficiaries. Our simulation also therefore suggests that Trust Fund revenue may not be enough to also cover the debt repayment expenditures it must continue to make through fiscal year 2040, per the payment schedule established following the 2008 EIEA. Our moderate simulation suggests that the amount borrowed by the Trust Fund will likely increase from about $1.6 billion in fiscal year 2019 to about $15.4 billion in fiscal year 2050 (see fig. 6). Although the Trust Fund’s legacy debt decreases through fiscal year 2040, total Trust Fund expenditures—including combined benefit payments and administrative costs as well as debt repayments—will likely continue to exceed revenue which will require continued annual borrowing from Treasury’s general fund. However, the amount borrowed by the Trust Fund could vary depending, in part, on future coal production and the number of new beneficiaries and could range between about $6 billion and about $27 billion in 2050, according to our simulations (see appendix II). We simulated three options that can affect Trust Fund finances through fiscal year 2050. Specifically, we simulated the effects of (1) adjusting the coal tax, (2) forgiving interest, and (3) forgiving debt. In each of the simulations, we compared the results of the option to a baseline in which the coal tax rates will decrease by about 55 percent, which we refer to as the scheduled 2019 tax rate decrease. We compare interest and debt forgiveness options to a baseline which assumes the scheduled 2019 tax rate decrease has taken effect, and that there is no interest or debt forgiveness. The simulated options are not intended to be exhaustive and we are not endorsing any particular option or combination of options. Using the moderate case, we simulated four options: (1) implementing the 2019 coal tax rate reduction to $0.50 per ton of underground-mined coal and $0.25 per ton of surface-mined coal; (2) maintaining the current coal tax rates of $1.10 per ton for underground-mined coal and $0.55 per ton of surface-mined coal; (3) reducing the tax rates by 25 percent (from $1.10 and $0.55); and (4) increasing these tax rates by 25 percent (see fig. 7). Increasing the tax rates by 25 percent was the only option that eliminated simulated Trust Fund debt by fiscal year 2050, according to our moderate case simulation. We simulated three interest forgiveness options including forgiving interest on (1) legacy debt, (2) annual borrowing, and (3) all debt. Our moderate case simulation suggests that forgiving interest will not eliminate simulated debt by fiscal year 2050 (see fig. 8). We simulated two debt forgiveness options by forgiving principal and interest on (1) legacy debt and (2) all debt. Our moderate case simulation suggests that both debt forgiveness options would reduce simulated Trust Fund borrowing by fiscal year 2050, but these options would not eliminate debt altogether as simulated revenue will likely not be enough to cover simulated expenditures (see fig. 9). In these cases, the Trust Fund will need to continue borrowing from Treasury’s general fund to cover annual deficits, and thus accumulate debt. While adjusting coal tax rates and forgiving interest or debt could reduce the Trust Fund’s simulated borrowing by 2050, implementing them could affect the coal industry or general taxpayers, according to stakeholders we interviewed. For instance, a coal industry representative noted that maintaining the coal tax at its current rate would continue to burden the coal industry and increasing the tax would exacerbate the burden at a time when coal production has been declining. Treasury officials noted that the costs associated with forgiving Trust Fund interest or debt would be borne by the general taxpayer since Treasury borrows from taxpayers to lend to the Trust Fund as needed. These officials also said that making a one-time federal appropriation to forgive interest or debt would be the most transparent way to satisfy the Trust Fund’s outstanding debt to Treasury’s general fund. In addition to the simulations, other options could affect the financial position of the Trust Fund including reducing black lung benefits, eliminating or adjusting the coal tax cap, or creating a variable coal tax. Our moderate case simulation suggests that completely eliminating black lung benefits as of fiscal year 2019 could reduce the Trust Fund’s borrowing from Treasury’s general fund in fiscal year 2050 from about $15.4 billion to about $6.4 billion. However, doing so would generally mean that coal tax revenue would be collected solely to fund the repayment of Trust Fund debt. Another option could be to eliminate or adjust the coal tax cap, which currently prevents mine operators from paying a coal tax of more than 4.4 percent of the price per ton of coal sold. If the coal tax cap were eliminated, for instance, mine operators would pay $1.10 per ton of underground-mined coal and $0. 55 per ton of surface-mined coal regardless of price sold, which could increase revenue. As an additional option, changing the structure of the coal tax to flexible rates that change based on an annual actuarial assessment of the Trust Fund could help to ensure that coal mine operators pay the necessary amount of tax to cover Trust Fund expenditures, without resulting in a Trust Fund balance or deficit. Multiple options could reduce the Trust Fund’s future debt and distribute the financial burden among the coal industry and general taxpayers. We simulated whether various coal tax and debt forgiveness options could balance the Trust Fund by fiscal year 2050, whereby its simulated revenue would be sufficient to cover its simulated expenditures. These options were selected, in part, based on interviews with Trust Fund stakeholders and the availability of DOL and other data. We approached these simulations from two perspectives. First, we simulated how much Trust Fund debt would need to be forgiven based on various coal tax rates. Second, we simulated the average tax collected per ton needed to balance the Trust Fund by 2050, based on certain debt forgiveness options. The simulated options are not intended to be exhaustive and we are not endorsing any particular combination of options. Our first set of options using the moderate case simulations are based on the current coal tax rates of $1.10 per ton of underground-mined coal and $0.55 per ton of surface-mined coal, and show the amount of debt forgiveness in fiscal year 2019 needed to balance the Trust Fund by fiscal year 2050 based on certain tax rates (see fig. 10). Specifically, our moderate case simulations show the following: Increasing current coal tax rates by 25 percent could balance the Trust Fund by 2050 and would likely require no debt forgiveness. For this option, the simulated coal tax revenue would likely be sufficient to cover simulated Trust Fund expenditures, including combined benefit payments and administrative costs, as well as debt repayments. However, this option would place the burden solely on the coal industry that would be paying higher taxes at a time when coal production has been declining. Maintaining current coal tax rates could balance the Trust Fund by 2050 if coupled with about $2.4 billion of debt forgiveness. This option would distribute the burden among the coal industry and general taxpayers. Decreasing current coal tax rates by 25 percent could balance the Trust Fund by 2050 if coupled with about $4.8 billion in debt forgiveness. This option would burden the coal industry less than maintaining the current tax rates, but would increase the burden on general taxpayers. Decreasing current tax rates by 55 percent, which we refer to as the scheduled 2019 tax rate decrease, would balance the Trust Fund by 2050 if coupled with about $7.8 billion in debt forgiveness. This figure comprises the Trust Fund’s total simulated outstanding debt in fiscal year 2019 ($6.6 billion), and an additional about $1.2 billion that would be required because the Trust Fund will accrue additional debt from fiscal years 2020 through 2050, according to our moderate case simulations. The coal industry would bear some of the financial burden of this option, while also placing a financial burden on general taxpayers. Our second set of options using moderate case simulations show the change in average coal tax revenue collected per ton to balance the Trust Fund by fiscal year 2050 based on certain debt forgiveness options (see fig. 11). Specifically, our moderate simulations show the following: Forgiving the Trust Fund’s legacy debt would allow for an average tax collected of about $0.59 per ton to balance the Trust Fund by 2050. Based on certain assumptions, this could be accomplished with a tax of $0.88 per ton on underground-mined coal and $0.44 per ton on surface-mined coal. Forgiving all Trust Fund debt would allow for an average tax collected per ton of coal sold of $0.47 per ton to balance the Trust Fund by 2050. Based on certain assumptions, this could be accomplished with a tax of $0.70 per ton on underground-mined coal and a tax of $0.35 per ton of surface-mined coal. We provided a draft of this report to the Departments of Labor (DOL), Treasury, and Health and Human Services (HHS) for review and comment. DOL, Treasury, and HHS provided technical comments, which we incorporated as appropriate. As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days from the report date. At that time we will send copies of this report to the appropriate congressional committees, the Secretaries of Labor, Treasury, and Health and Human Services, and other interested parties. In addition, the report will be available at no charge on GAO’s web site at http://www.gao.gov. If you or your staff should have any questions about this report, please contact me at (202) 512-7215 or brownbarnesc@gao.gov. Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made key contributions to this report are listed in appendix III. We examined the extent to which (1) Black Lung Disability Trust Fund (Trust Fund) debt may change through 2050 and (2) selected options to improve its future financial position. We interviewed officials from the Departments of Labor (DOL), Treasury, and Health and Human Services (HHS), as well as representatives from the National Mining Association and the United Mine Workers of America. We then selected options to simulate based, in part, on these interviews and the availability of DOL and other data. These options included adjusting the coal tax, forgiving interest on some or all Trust Fund debt, forgiving some or all Trust Fund debt, or various combinations of these options. The options we simulated are not intended to be exhaustive and we are not endorsing any particular option or combination of options. Our simulations are based on various assumptions and simulate Trust Fund revenues and expenditures from fiscal years 2016 through 2050. To develop these simulations, we used actual and projection data from (1) DOL for fiscal years 2015 through 2040; (2) Treasury’s Office of Tax Analysis for fiscal years 2011 through 2015; (3) the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) for calendar years 2015 through 2050; and (4) the Office of Management and Budget for fiscal year 2017. To simulate future Trust Fund benefit expenditures, we simulated the number of beneficiaries each fiscal year, and the annual average amount of benefits received (cash assistance and medical benefits). To simulate the numbers of beneficiaries, we used DOL data on the (1) age distributions of miner and widow beneficiaries for fiscal year 2015; (2) mortality rates by age for miner and widow beneficiaries as of fiscal year 2015; and (3) numbers of beneficiaries—including married miners, single miners, widows, and miners receiving medical benefits only—in fiscal year 2015. We assumed—as DOL does in its Black Lung Budget and Liability Model—that all miners are men, all widows are women, and all spouses are 3 years younger than the miner. We also assumed that the age distribution of single miners is the same as for married miners, and that the age distribution of new miner and widow beneficiaries is the same as for miner and widow beneficiaries during fiscal year 2015. We used DOL’s mortality rates to simulate the number of beneficiaries of each age and type in each year, and used those numbers to then simulate the total number of beneficiaries of each type each year (see table 2). We also assumed that there will be no new medical-benefit-only recipients. Formula The number of married miner beneficiaries age a in fiscal year y is equal to the number of new married miner beneficiaries age a in fiscal year y plus the number of married miner beneficiaries age a-1 in fiscal year y-1 who survived and whose spouse survived. The total number of married miner beneficiaries in fiscal year y is then the sum of the number of married miner beneficiaries of all ages in fiscal year y. Finally, we averaged the number of married miner beneficiaries by averaging the prior fiscal year’s total and the current fiscal year’s total. The number of single miner beneficiaries age a in fiscal year y is equal to the number of new single miner beneficiaries age a in fiscal year y plus the number of single miner beneficiaries age a-1 in fiscal year y-1 who survived plus the number of married miner beneficiaries age a-1 in fiscal year y-1 who survived but whose spouse did not survive. The total number of single miner beneficiaries in fiscal year y is then the sum of the number of single miner beneficiaries of all ages in fiscal year y. Finally, we averaged the number of single miner beneficiaries by averaging the prior fiscal year’s total and the current fiscal year’s total. The number of widow beneficiaries age a in fiscal year y is equal to the number of new beneficiaries who are widows age a in fiscal year y plus the number of widow beneficiaries age a-1 in fiscal year y-1 who survived plus the number of married miner beneficiaries age a+2 in fiscal year y-1 who did not survive but whose spouse did survive. The total number of widow beneficiaries in fiscal year y is then the sum of the number of widow beneficiaries of all ages in fiscal year y. Finally, we averaged the number of widow beneficiaries by averaging the prior fiscal year’s total and the current fiscal year’s total. The number of MBO beneficiaries of age a in fiscal year y is equal to the number of MBO beneficiaries of age a-1 in fiscal year y-1 who survived. The total number of MBO beneficiaries only in fiscal year y is then the sum of the number of MBO beneficiaries of all ages in fiscal year y. Finally, we averaged the number of MBO beneficiaries by averaging the prior fiscal year’s total and the current fiscal year’s total. To simulate future coal tax revenue, we used Treasury and EIA data to calculate (1) the amounts of underground and surface-mined coal taxed at fixed dollar amounts of $1.10 and $0.55 per ton, respectively, in 2015; (2) the amounts of underground and surface-mined coal taxed at variable dollar amounts per ton equal to 4.4 percent of the price in 2015; and (3) average prices of underground and surface-mined coal taxed at 4.4 percent of the price in 2015. We then used EIA data on projected amounts of total coal production, underground-mined coal production, lignite coal production, and coal exports, as well as projected average coal prices, for the period from 2015 through 2050 to simulate future coal tax revenues (see table 3). We simulated other Trust Fund expenditures and revenues, including administrative costs and debt repayments (see table 4). For our simulations, total Trust Fund expenditures are the sum of black lung benefits (cash assistance and medical benefits), total administrative costs, repayment of interest and principal on outstanding debt to Treasury’s general fund, and other expenditures. Total Trust Fund revenues are the sum of coal tax revenue and other miscellaneous revenue, and exclude annual borrowing from Treasury’s general fund. Annual borrowing from Treasury’s general fund is the difference between total Trust Fund expenditures and revenues and is assumed to be repaid with interest the following year. If total revenues are greater than total expenditures, then the Trust Fund has a balance and would not have to borrow that year. In this case, we assumed that the Trust Fund will earn interest on that balance at the same rate on which interest would accrue on annual borrowing. We simulated how the scheduled 2019 tax rate decrease and various options including adjusting the coal tax, forgiving debt interest, and forgiving debt principal and interest may affect Trust Fund finances through fiscal year 2050 (see table 5). The options listed are not intended to be exhaustive and we are not endorsing any particular option or combination of options. We simulated option combinations for coal tax rates, interest forgiveness, and debt forgiveness to demonstrate how potential financial adjustments could affect future Trust Fund borrowing from Treasury’s general fund through fiscal year 2050. For options that involve adjusting coal tax rates, we estimated the amount of debt that would need to be forgiven in fiscal year 2019 for the Trust Fund’s revenues to be sufficient to cover its expenditures through fiscal year 2050, assuming the Trust Fund does not borrow from Treasury’s general fund after fiscal year 2018. To do so, we first calculated the real discounted present value of Trust Fund expenditures for fiscal years 2019 through 2050, including benefit payments, administrative costs, legacy debt repayments, and repayment of annual borrowing from Treasury’s general fund. Second, we calculated the real discounted present value of Trust Fund revenue for the same period, including coal tax revenue and other miscellaneous revenue. Third, we calculated debt forgiveness as the difference between the real discounted present value of Trust Fund expenditures from the first calculation and the real discounted present value of Trust Fund revenues from the second calculation. When the amount of debt forgiveness is greater than the amount of debt outstanding, the Trust Fund would need an additional cash inflow in addition to forgiveness of all outstanding debt. Amounts of debt forgiveness less than zero suggest that no debt forgiveness is required. For options involving forgiving debt (interest or principal), we estimated the average tax per ton of coal that, if implemented in fiscal year 2019, would provide the Trust Fund sufficient revenue to cover its expenditures through fiscal year 2050, assuming the Trust Fund does not receive any advances from Treasury’s general fund after fiscal year 2018. To do so, we first calculated the real discounted present value of Trust Fund expenditures for the period from fiscal year 2019 through fiscal year 2050, again including benefit payments, administrative costs, legacy debt repayments, and repayment of annual borrowing from Treasury’s general fund, minus the real discounted present value of miscellaneous revenues for the same period. Second, we calculated the real discounted present value of coal production for the same period. Third, we calculated the average tax per ton of coal as the first amount divided by the second amount. To assess the sensitivity of each option, we ran each simulation 36 times using four different sets of assumptions about the numbers of future beneficiaries and nine different sets of assumptions about future coal production and prices (see table 6). Doing so provided a range of estimates about the Trust Fund’s future borrowing needs and provided insight on the sensitivity of its overall financial position relative to its various expenditures and revenues. The analysis also provided a range of estimates of the amount of debt forgiveness needed to bring the Trust Fund into balance by fiscal year 2050, assuming various coal tax rates, and the average tax collection per ton needed to do the same, and assuming various amounts of debt forgiveness. From the range of estimates that resulted from our sensitivity analysis, we selected cases with moderate expectations related to future Trust Fund expenditures and revenue. Specifically, for future expenditures, we assumed an average growth rate of new black lung beneficiaries for fiscal years 2003 through 2015 as a moderate case that reflects historical experience. For future revenue, we used a moderate coal production outlook based on EIA’s reference case, which reflects moderate expectations about future coal production based on various assumptions about economic growth, oil prices, technological innovation, and energy policy. We summarized the results of our simulations by showing the extent to which the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund’s (Trust Fund) balance—the sum of tax revenue and miscellaneous revenue less expenditures—may change in fiscal year 2050 for each option simulated. For example, with the scheduled 2019 tax rate decrease, our moderate case simulations suggest that the Trust Fund would likely have a deficit in fiscal year 2050 of about $15.4 billion. Multiple options could reduce the Trust Fund’s future debt and distribute the financial burden among the coal industry and general taxpayers. We simulated how various coal tax and debt forgiveness options could balance the Trust Fund by fiscal year 2050, whereby its simulated revenue would be sufficient to cover its simulated expenditures. We approached these simulations from two perspectives. First, we simulated how much Trust Fund debt would need to be forgiven based on various coal tax rates. Second, we simulated the average tax collected per ton needed to balance the Trust Fund by 2050, based on certain debt forgiveness options. For our first set of simulations, we calculated the amount of debt outstanding in fiscal year 2019 and the amount that would likely need to be forgiven in fiscal year 2019 for the Trust Fund to have sufficient revenues to cover its expenditures by fiscal year 2050, assuming that it does not borrow from Treasury’s general fund after fiscal year 2018. For example, before any options are implemented, our moderate case simulations suggest that the Trust Fund’s outstanding debt in fiscal year 2019—including both legacy debt and annual borrowing from Treasury’s general fund—would likely be about $6.6 billion (after discounting and adjusting for inflation). Therefore, with implementation of the coal tax rate decrease of about 55 percent as scheduled in calendar year 2019, about 117.7 percent of that debt would need to be forgiven to balance the Trust Fund. In other words, balancing the Trust Fund would require forgiveness of $6.6 billion and an additional cash inflow of about $1.2 billion because the Trust Fund will accrue additional debt from fiscal years 2020 through 2050, according to our moderate case simulations (see table 8). For our second set of simulations, we estimated the average tax per ton of coal that, if implemented in fiscal year 2019, would likely provide the Trust Fund sufficient revenues to cover its expenditures in fiscal year 2050, assuming that it does not borrow from Treasury’s general fund after fiscal year 2018. For example, if all principal and interest on Trust Fund legacy debt is forgiven, as of 2019, the estimated average tax that balances the Trust Fund is about $0.59 per ton (see table 9). Based on certain assumptions, this could be accomplished with a tax of $0.88 per ton on underground-mined coal and $0.44 per ton on surface-mined coal. In addition to the contact named above, Blake Ainsworth (Assistant Director), Justin Dunleavy (analyst-in-charge), Angeline Bickner, Courtney LaFountain, and Rosemary Torres Lerma made key contributions to this report. Also contributing to this report were James Bennett, Melinda Bowman, Lilia Chaidez, Caitlin Cusati, Holly Dye, Alex Galuten, Carol Henn, John Lack, Emei Li, Almeta Spencer, Kate van Gelder, and Shana Wallace.

Summary: With revenue of about $450 million in fiscal year 2017, the Trust Fund paid about $184 million in benefits to more than 25,000 coal miners and eligible dependents. However, the Trust Fund also borrowed about $1.3 billion from the Treasury's general fund in fiscal year 2017 to cover its debt repayment expenditures. Adding to this financial challenge, the coal tax that supports the Trust Fund is scheduled to decrease by about 55 percent beginning in 2019. GAO was asked to review the financial positon of the Trust Fund and identify options to improve it. This report examines (1) factors that have challenged the financial position of the Trust Fund since its inception and (2) the extent to which Trust Fund debt may change through 2050, and selected options that could improve its future financial position. GAO reviewed Trust Fund financial data from fiscal years 1979 through 2017. GAO also interviewed officials from the Departments of Labor, Treasury, Health and Human Services (HHS) and representatives of coal industry and union groups. Using assumptions, such as the about 55 percent coal tax decrease and moderately declining coal production, GAO simulated the extent to which Trust Fund debt may change through 2050. GAO also simulated how selected options, such as forgiveness of debt, could improve finances. The options simulated are not intended to be exhaustive. Further, GAO is not endorsing any particular option or combination of options. GAO provided a draft of this report to DOL, Treasury, and HHS. The agencies provided technical comments, which were incorporated as appropriate. Multiple factors have challenged Black Lung Disability Trust Fund (Trust Fund) finances since it was established about 40 years ago. Its expenditures have consistently exceeded its revenues, interest payments have grown, and actions taken that were expected to improve Trust Fund finances did not completely address its debt. When necessary to make expenditures, the Trust Fund borrows with interest from the Department of the Treasury's (Treasury) general fund. Because Trust Fund expenditures have consistently exceeded revenue, it has borrowed almost every year since 1979, its first complete fiscal year, and as a result debt and interest payments increased. Legislative actions were taken over the years including (1) raising the rate of the coal tax that provides Trust Fund revenues and (2) forgiving debt. For example, the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 provided an appropriation toward Trust Fund debt forgiveness; about $6.5 billion was forgiven, according to Department of Labor (DOL) data (see figure). However, coal tax revenues were less than expected due, in part, to the 2008 recession and increased competition from other energy sources, according to DOL and Treasury officials. As a result, the Trust Fund continued to borrow from Treasury's general fund from fiscal years 2010 through 2017 to cover debt repayment expenditures. GAO's simulation suggests that Trust Fund borrowing will likely increase from fiscal years 2019 through 2050 due, in part, to the coal tax rate decrease of about 55 percent that will take effect in 2019 and declining coal production. The simulation estimates that Trust Fund borrowing may exceed $15 billion by 2050 (see figure). However, various options, such as adjusting the coal tax and forgiving interest or debt, could reduce future borrowing and improve the Trust Fund's financial position. For example, maintaining the current coal tax rates and forgiving debt of $2.4 billion could, under certain circumstances, balance the Trust Fund by 2050, whereby revenue would be sufficient to cover expenditures. However, a coal industry representative said that maintaining or increasing the coal tax would burden the coal industry, particularly at a time when coal production has been declining. Further, Treasury officials noted that the costs associated with forgiving Trust Fund interest or debt would be paid by taxpayers.