The Federal Meat Inspection Act and the Poultry Products Inspection Act give USDA overall responsibility for ensuring the safety and wholesomeness of meat and poultry products that enter interstate commerce. Acting under these legislative authorities, USDA inspectors provide continuous government inspection of each and every meat and poultry carcass and its parts at slaughter plants throughout the United States. Within USDA, FSIS is responsible for inspections at all meat and poultry slaughter and processing plants and has inspectors positioned both on and off the slaughter line. FSIS inspectors positioned on the line are to inspect every carcass and its parts, including the viscera (e.g., hearts and liver) organoleptically—by sight, touch, and smell—for defects, and direct plant personnel to take appropriate corrective action when defects are found. According to a Federal Register notice, plants rely on FSIS inspectors to control and direct their production processes. For example, FSIS regulates the speed of the slaughter line based on its inspectors’ ability to perform proper inspection procedures. FSIS inspectors positioned off the line move freely about the plant to focus on areas of greatest risk and to perform collection of carcass samples for testing of microbial pathogens. Among other activities, these inspectors review plant records and live animals presented for slaughter. These inspectors are also responsible for ensuring plants’ compliance with regulatory requirements on a daily basis and for taking regulatory enforcement action when deficiencies are found. In 1997, FSIS announced the need to modify its meat and poultry slaughter inspection program to, among other things, make industry more responsible for identifying carcass defects. This approach is consistent with the agency’s previous adoption of the Pathogen Reduction: Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) regulations. Under the risk- based HACCP approach, industry—rather than federal inspectors—is responsible for identifying steps in food production where food safety hazards, such as fecal material, are reasonably likely to occur and for establishing controls that prevent or reduce these hazards. As part of this approach, plants must identify the point (known as the critical control point) where they will establish control for a food safety hazard and take steps to prevent, eliminate, or control the hazard. FSIS had not extended the HACCP principles to slaughter inspections because the agency provides continuous inspection of each and every carcass. However, FSIS believed that changing its existing inspection systems would also reduce inspectors’ reliance on organoleptic inspections, allow for a shift to prevention-oriented inspection systems based on risk, and permit redeployment of its resources to better protect the public from foodborne diseases. Before making a permanent change to its slaughter inspection systems, FSIS developed the pilot projects in 1998 at young chicken, young turkey, and young hog plants to test whether such a change would achieve its intended purpose of deploying inspection resources more effectively in accordance with food safety and other consumer protection requirements. FSIS’ pilot projects at these plants are known as the HACCP-based Inspection Models Project (HIMP). FSIS developed food safety and quality performance standards for plants in the pilot projects to meet. FSIS set the performance standard for food safety defects at zero. An example of a food safety defect is a carcass contaminated with fecal material because ingestion of meat and poultry contaminated with fecal material poses potential harm to humans. FSIS’ performance standards for food quality defects vary, depending on the animal species and the type of defects. An example of a food quality defect is bruises on the carcass that, while not harmful if consumed, affects the wholesomeness of meat and poultry products. According to FSIS officials, the food quality performance standards are intended to be more stringent than the performance standards in place at plants that are not participating in the pilot projects. In May 1999, FSIS negotiated an agreement with the union representing its inspectors that limited the number of plants participating in the pilot projects to 20 young chicken plants, 5 young turkey plants, and 5 young hog plants. According to the agreement, the pilot projects for each species are to end when a final rule is published for that species. Before converting to the inspection systems under the pilot projects, participating plants modified their operations to meet certain requirements, such as installing a new workstation at the end of the slaughter line and before the chiller for the FSIS inspector positioned on the slaughter line at poultry Over the course of the pilot projects, some plants have dropped plants. out, and others have joined. As of July 2013, 29 plants were participating in the pilot projects in 18 states. Appendix II provides additional information on the location of plants in the pilot projects and the volume of poultry and hog slaughter in the United States. The chiller is the point when eviscerated carcasses—carcasses that have had internal organs and any processing defects removed—are chilled in order to inhibit microbial growth and meet the regulatory requirements of 9 C.F.R. § 381.66(b)(1). young chicken and turkey plants. Plants participating in FSIS’ pilot projects are required to participate in this program. The Salmonella Initiative Program permits plants to operate with an exemption (known as a waiver) from complying with certain regulatory requirements. For example, young chicken plants in the pilot project are exempt from meeting FSIS’ regulatory requirement that limits the slaughter line speed at young chicken plants and can operate the slaughter line at a faster line speed. Plants in the Salmonella Initiative Program must demonstrate to FSIS that results from their Salmonella testing consistently demonstrate that they maintain control over production processes. The goal of the Salmonella Initiative Program is to reduce and eliminate Salmonella before products reach consumers. In January 2012, FSIS published in the Federal Register a proposed rule to modernize poultry slaughter inspections based, in part, on the agency’s experience with the pilot projects at young chicken and young turkey plants. FSIS developed the proposed rule in response to an executive order directing agencies to review existing regulations that may have been outdated and modify them accordingly. According to the proposed rule, the modernization is intended to improve food safety and the effectiveness of poultry slaughter inspection systems, remove unnecessary regulatory obstacles to innovation, and make better use of the agency’s resources. The proposed rule further states that inspection systems currently in place at chicken and turkey plants (not in the pilot projects) are lacking in two important respects. First, the proper role of industry and FSIS is obscured. Specifically, FSIS inspectors are currently responsible for sorting acceptable carcasses from unacceptable carcasses, finding defects, identifying corrective actions, and solving problems in production control processes, but these are roles more appropriately the responsibility of the slaughter plants. Second, a significant amount of FSIS’ inspection program personnel resources are allocated toward inspection activities to detect defects and conditions that present minimal food safety risks. According to the proposed rule, this allocation limits the agency resources available for food safety-related inspection activities. Moreover, FSIS developed an economic cost and benefit analysis to demonstrate the merits of the proposed rule, which, according to USDA, is expected to have an annual impact on the economy of more than $100 million. FSIS’ proposed rule affects all poultry slaughter plants and includes mandatory regulatory changes. For example, the proposed rule requires all poultry plants to maintain written procedures to prevent contamination of carcasses and parts by fecal material and pathogens (e.g., Salmonella and Campylobacter) and to test for organisms (e.g., Salmonella) to demonstrate control over their production processes at a point before the carcass enters the chiller and at a point after the carcass exits the chiller. In addition, the proposed rule includes the optional new poultry inspection system for young chicken and turkey plants. According to the proposed rule, FSIS expects that the majority of young chicken and turkey plants will convert to the optional new poultry inspection system. The new poultry inspection system resembles the inspection systems at young chicken and young turkey plants in the pilot projects but also has some differences. Similarities between the pilot projects and optional new poultry inspection system include, among others: For each slaughter line, there would be one FSIS inspector positioned at the end of the line to perform a carcass-by-carcass inspection and one FSIS inspector positioned off the line to perform, among other things, food safety and quality checks on carcasses to verify that plant personnel (known as sorters) have effectively performed their duties, such as removing fecal material on carcasses. The FSIS inspector positioned on the slaughter line would visually inspect (observe) each carcass after the viscera are separated from it and after plant personnel have sorted carcasses, at a point near the end of the slaughter line. A difference between the pilot projects and the optional new poultry inspection system is that the new system would eliminate FSIS’ performance standards for food quality defects and replace them with a requirement that plants maintain records documenting that their products meet the regulatory definition of “ready-to-cook.” Ready-to-cook means that the products are free of such defects as feathers, oil glands, and diseases and are thus suitable for cooking without any further preparation. According to FSIS officials, plants could use the existing food quality standards—known as Finished Product Standards—to meet the regulatory definition of ready-to-cook. FSIS has not thoroughly evaluated the performance of each of the three pilot projects over time even though the agency stated that it would do so when it announced the pilot projects. Specifically, FSIS completed a report evaluating the pilot project at young chicken plants, but its data analyses have limitations. FSIS did not prepare a report evaluating the pilot project at young turkey plants and has no plans to do so because data from the five young turkey plants in the pilot project provide limited information due to the small sample size. While FSIS has begun drafting a preliminary report evaluating the pilot project at young hog plants, it used analyses similar to those presented in the report evaluating the pilot project at young chicken plants, suggesting similar limitations may apply. In 2011, FSIS completed a report evaluating the pilot project at young chicken plants; according to agency officials, the agency’s evaluation efforts focused on this pilot project, in part, because it has the largest number of plants participating. FSIS’ evaluation compared the performance of the 20 young chicken plants in the pilot project (1) with a similar group of 64 plants not participating in the pilot project, using routinely collected data, and (2) against the performance standards developed for the pilot project using data collected specifically for the pilot project. FSIS’ evaluation concludes that an inspection system based on the pilot project would ensure equivalent, if not better, levels of food safety and quality than currently provided at plants not in the pilot project. FSIS used this evaluation to support its January 2012 proposed rule modernizing poultry slaughter inspections that includes the optional new poultry inspection system. We identified two limitations of FSIS’ evaluation that raise questions about the validity of FSIS’ conclusion that an inspection system based on the pilot project would ensure equivalent, if not better, levels of food safety and quality than currently provided at plants not in the pilot project. First, FSIS’ conclusion about the pilot project was based, in part, on comparisons of data that were not designed to be comparable. For example, FSIS concluded that the prevalence of Salmonella at the 20 plants participating in the pilot project was significantly lower than in the similar group of 64 plants that were not participating in the pilot project from 2006 to 2008. However, it based its conclusion on data that were collected as a part of its microbial sampling program, rather than collecting samples from the same plants for each year. The total number of samples collected in each year declined from one year to the next— indicating that the total number of plants from which samples was collected varied from year to year (see fig. 1). FSIS officials confirmed that the total number of plants from which samples were collected varied from year to year, and these officials were unable to tell us how many plants were included in each year of the analysis. In addition, the possibility that lower prevalence of Salmonella was caused by something other than the pilot project cannot be ruled out. Moreover, data from the last 2 years analyzed did not show a significantly lower prevalence of Salmonella for plants participating in the pilot project. According to FSIS officials, FSIS did not collect data to demonstrate the relative effectiveness of plants participating and not participating in any of the pilot projects. Instead, the agency analyzed data for a variety of inspection activities performed in all plants (regardless of a plant’s inspection system) to ensure their compliance with regulatory requirements. The second limitation that we identified in FSIS’ evaluation is that the agency collected more than a decade’s worth of data on the extent to which young chicken plants in the pilot project were meeting the food safety and quality performance standards developed for the pilot project, but it based its conclusion about the performance of the pilot project on the use of snapshots of data from the pilot project for two 2-year periods. Moreover, the time frames for the snapshots differed depending on whether the categories related to food safety or food quality defects. More specifically, the agency included snapshots of food safety data from 2000 to 2002—when the project first began—and food safety data from April 2009 to March 2011, and snapshots of food quality data from 2000 to 2002 with food quality data from 2009 to 2010—the most recent data available at that time. Consequently, the results from the years that FSIS selected for analysis may not be indicative of plants’ performance over time. According to FSIS officials, the agency did not analyze the data for the majority of the years because the data were recorded on paper forms stored at individual plants and compiling the data for analysis was labor intensive. According to the Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government, federal agencies are to employ internal control activities, such as top-level review, to help ensure that management’s directives are carried out and to determine if agencies are effectively and efficiently using resources. Without analyzing data for the majority of the years of the pilot project in its evaluation, FSIS could not determine whether an inspection system based on the pilot project would ensure equivalent, if not better, levels of food safety and quality than currently provided at plants not in the pilot project over time. In addition, according to the Federal Register notice announcing the pilot projects, FSIS stated that the agency would thoroughly evaluate them; however, using snapshots of data rather than data for the majority of the years of the pilot project, the agency did not conduct a thorough evaluation. Instead, FSIS veterinarians and inspectors evaluated the performance of their individual plants against regulatory performance standards on a daily basis, as they routinely do for all plants regardless of whether they are in the pilot project or not, as well as the performance standards for the pilot project. However, the agency has not aggregated and analyzed these daily results to determine how the plants participating in the pilot project have performed over time. Notwithstanding these limitations, FSIS used its evaluation of the pilot project at young chicken plants to support the proposed rule on modernizing poultry slaughter inspections. Moreover, the design and methodology limitations we identified in our 2001 report (e.g., young chicken plants participating in the pilot project constituted a small, nonrandom sample) continue to prevent the results obtained from the 20 participating young chicken plants from being generalized to the 239 young chicken plants and 96 young turkey plants in the United States in 2012. As a result, FSIS may not have assurance that its evaluation of the pilot project at young chicken plants provides the information necessary to support the proposed rule for poultry—both chickens and turkeys. However, according to the Federal Register notice supporting the proposed rule on modernizing poultry slaughter inspections, the agency conducted a comprehensive evaluation; thus, the agency will not complete another evaluation before it issues a final rule. Unlike what FSIS did for the pilot project at young chicken plants, it did not complete an evaluation on or prepare a report evaluating the pilot project at young turkey plants. In publishing the proposed rule modernizing poultry slaughter inspections that included an optional new poultry inspection system, the agency stated that the new system was based on its experience with the pilot projects at young chicken and young turkey plants. According to FSIS officials, the agency did not prepare a report evaluating the pilot project at young turkey plants and has no plans to do so because data from five young turkey plants in the pilot project provide limited information due to the small sample size. Instead, as part of a quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate the public health impact of the proposed rule, the agency analyzed the relationship between the presence or absence of pathogens and the frequency with which FSIS inspectors positioned off the slaughter line carried out specific inspection activities at young turkey plants. According to FSIS’ analysis, there is a suggested relationship between young turkey plants’ participation in the pilot project and a lower prevalence of Salmonella and Campylobacter. In addition, FSIS officials stated that, for the optional new poultry inspection system, they generalized information and data from young chicken plants in the pilot project to the young turkey plants in the pilot project because the processes to slaughter chickens and turkeys are similar. However, we identified differences in the food quality performance standards and FSIS’ testing protocol for pathogens. FSIS acknowledged that the food quality performance standards are not the same. We determined that the five food quality performance standards developed for the young chicken and for the young turkey pilot project can differ by 0.5 percent to almost 16 percent. For example, the performance standard for the food quality defect category that includes animal diseases (such as arthritis) is 1.7 percent for young chickens and 1.2 percent for young turkeys—a difference of 0.5 percent. In another example, the performance standard for the food quality defect that includes other defects such as feathers is 80.0 percent for young chickens and 95.9 percent for young turkeys—a difference of 15.9 percent. Furthermore, FSIS’ protocols differ for testing chicken and turkey carcasses for Salmonella and Campylobacter. For example, for chickens, FSIS inspectors rinse an entire chicken carcass in a bag filled with a sterile water solution that is poured off and tested for these pathogens. In contrast, for turkeys, FSIS inspectors use a sponge—containing the same sterile water solution as that used to rinse chicken carcasses—to swab certain areas of the turkey carcass and then test the sponge for pathogens. According to a March 2011 Federal Register notice, FSIS acknowledged that the method used to sample carcasses affects the results and stated that they are not proposing to compare microbial data from these two species. However, even with these differences in sampling protocols, FSIS officials stated that the results for young chickens could be generalized to young turkeys. These differences raise questions about the extent to which FSIS can generalize results for food quality defects and microbial testing results from one species to the other, but, as we previously mentioned, the agency has no plans to do an evaluation of the pilot project at young turkey plants before it issues a final rule. In 2011, FSIS began drafting a preliminary report evaluating the pilot project at young hog plants. The preliminary report uses analyses similar to those presented in the report evaluating the pilot project at young chicken plants, suggesting that similar limitations may apply. In particular, FSIS did not collect comparable data from plants participating and not participating in the pilot project. In addition, like the turkey pilot project, information collected from the five young hog plants in the pilot project would not provide reasonable assurance that any conclusions can apply more broadly to the universe of 608 hog plants in the United States in 2012 because of the small sample size. FSIS officials agreed that there would be concerns regarding the strength of any conclusions based on five plants. These officials stated that, when the agency develops a proposed rulemaking to modify its slaughter inspection system for hogs, it will need to decide whether to collect additional data. Furthermore, a May 2013 USDA Office of Inspector General report identified areas of risk in FSIS’ inspection of hog plants, including those participating in the pilot project. The report found that FSIS did not critically assess whether the pilot project had measurably improved food safety at each participating plant because the agency did not adequately oversee the program. In response, FSIS stated that it would complete an evaluation that would include an analysis of plants participating and not participating in the pilot project. However, as we previously stated, the analyses that the agency plans to use in this evaluation are similar to those presented in the report evaluating the pilot project at young chicken plants, suggesting that similar limitations may apply. According to FSIS officials, the agency intends to complete this evaluation by March 31, 2014. The officials said that the agency could use its final report evaluating the pilot project at young hog plants to support a rulemaking but currently has no time frame for doing so. FSIS’ pilot project at young hog plants will end when a final rule for hog slaughter is published. As FSIS officials stated, when the agency develops a proposed rulemaking to modify its slaughter inspection system for hogs, it will need to decide whether to collect additional data. However, while the pilot project is ongoing, FSIS has the opportunity to follow sound management practices by planning for and collecting key information needed to determine whether the pilot project is meeting its purpose. We have previously reported that pilot programs can more effectively inform future program rollout when sound management practices are followed. Consistent with best practices in program management, our guide for designing evaluations, and our prior work, we identified sound management practices to design a pilot to guide consistent implementation, including the type and source of data needed to evaluate the pilot, and to conduct analysis of the results. However, FSIS has not collected key information needed to determine whether the pilot project is meeting its purpose of deploying inspection resources more effectively in accordance with food safety and other consumer protection requirements. For example, FSIS has not collected information on the total costs of the pilot project to the agency or on any changes in the number of FSIS inspectors at the plants participating in the pilot project. Thus far, at young hog plants, FSIS veterinarians and inspectors have evaluated the performance of their individual plants against regulatory performance standards on a daily basis, as they routinely do for all plants regardless of whether they are in the pilot project or not, as well as the performance standards for the pilot project. However, the agency has not aggregated and analyzed these daily results to determine how the plants participating in the pilot project have performed over time. Without collecting and analyzing additional data, it will be difficult for FSIS to draw conclusions about whether the pilot project at young hog plants is meeting its purpose of deploying inspection resources more effectively in accordance with food safety and other consumer protection requirements. We identified strengths and weaknesses of the three pilot projects based on the views of 11 key stakeholder groups representing industry, labor, consumer advocacy, and animal welfare. Strengths we identified in the pilot projects based on the views cited most frequently by stakeholder groups included the following: Responsibility and flexibility. Representatives of 7 stakeholder groups stated that the pilot projects give plants responsibility and flexibility for ensuring food safety and quality. For example, representatives of 1 stakeholder group stated that, under the pilot projects, plants had greater flexibility to place plant personnel where they were skilled, while a representative of another stakeholder group stated that the pilot projects gave plants responsibility for producing safe food and allowed plants the latitude to incorporate new methods to ensure food safety. More focus on food safety. Representatives of 5 stakeholder groups stated that the pilot projects allow FSIS to focus more on food safety activities. For example, a representative of 1 stakeholder group stated that, in the pilot projects, FSIS inspectors focused on carcass and verification activities designed to reduce the incidence of foodborne pathogens. Potential job creation and increased production. Representatives of 3 stakeholder groups stated that the pilot projects may result in potential job creation and increased production at plants. For example, a representative of 1 stakeholder group stated some plants that joined the pilot projects hired new workers, purchased additional equipment, and expanded their facilities. A representative of another stakeholder group stated that the pilot projects allowed plants to increase line speeds to process and sell a larger quantity of products. In young chicken plants participating in the pilot project, inspectors view the backs of the carcasses after the birds have been sorted and cleaned and generally do not touch the carcasses. pilot projects may decide to address a food safety hazard—such as fecal material—at a point on the slaughter line after the FSIS inspector. For example, a representative of 1 stakeholder group raised a concern that by allowing plants in the pilot project to move the critical control point for preventing, eliminating, and controlling fecal material to a location on the slaughter line after the FSIS inspector, the FSIS inspector no longer had the ability to ensure that More the plant complied with the standard to control for that hazard.specifically, the FSIS inspector positioned on the line could no longer cite the plant for noncompliance with FSIS’ zero-tolerance standard for fecal material because the plant would not yet have had an opportunity to control for this hazard. In response, FSIS officials stated that there were more opportunities for identifying noncompliance with fecal standards for young poultry plants in the pilot projects because FSIS inspectors positioned off the slaughter line perform more food safety activities than at plants not participating in the pilot projects. Conflict of interest of plant personnel sorting carcasses. Representatives from 4 stakeholder groups stated that plants’ responsibility for sorting carcasses presents a conflict of interest. For example, a representative of 1 stakeholder group expressed concern that a plant’s financial incentive to process the maximum number of birds conflicted with its responsibility to regulate itself and stated that if plant personnel continually removed birds from the line, those personnel might be taken off the line. FSIS officials stated that plants’ responsibility for sorting carcasses did not present a conflict of interest because FSIS inspectors performed food safety activities, inspected each carcass, and verified the effectiveness of plant personnel’s sorting activities. Insufficient evidence of success of the pilot projects. Representatives of 3 stakeholder groups stated that FSIS does not have sufficient evidence to demonstrate the success of the pilot projects. For example, a representative of 1 stakeholder group stated that FSIS’ data from the pilot project at young chicken plants demonstrated that FSIS inspectors on the slaughter lines missed food safety defects on carcasses, such as fecal material. In particular, the stakeholder group representative cited FSIS data showing that FSIS inspectors positioned off the slaughter line who are responsible for, among other things, verifying the food safety of a sample of carcasses, found food safety defects at a much higher rate than FSIS inspectors positioned on the slaughter line. According to FSIS officials, the rate at which FSIS inspectors positioned on the slaughter line detected food safety defects was not directly comparable to the rate at which FSIS inspectors positioned off the slaughter line detected food safety defects because the inspectors positioned on the line and off the line had different but complementary roles. FSIS officials maintained, in its 2011 report evaluating the pilot project at young chicken plants, that the pilot project improved the safety of chicken products at participating plants. However, as previously noted in this report, we identified limitations in FSIS’ evaluation. Increased costs to industry. Representatives of 2 stakeholder groups stated that the pilot projects can result in increased costs to industry for additional capital investment, training, and staff. For example, a representative of 1 stakeholder group stated that plants participating in the pilot projects may need substantial capital for redesigning equipment and adding personnel, and a representative of another stakeholder group noted that plants participating in the pilot projects needed to add plant personnel to replace FSIS inspectors. FSIS officials stated that participation in the pilot projects was voluntary and that plants could choose whether to invest capital when participating. FSIS officials stated that they recognized there were similarities between the pilot projects and the optional new poultry inspection system included in the proposed rule, and they are working to address concerns identified by stakeholder groups in the final rule on modernizing poultry slaughter inspections. FSIS did not disclose certain limitations in sources of information it relied on to develop the cost-benefit analysis supporting the proposed rule on modernizing poultry slaughter inspections. As a result, the public, including stakeholders, did not have complete and accurate information to inform their comments on the proposed rule, including the uncertainty behind selected estimates. According to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-4, which provides guidance to federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis, and USDA’s departmental regulation that details the process for developing regulations, a good cost-benefit analysis is transparent and a qualified third party reading the analysis should be able to understand the basic elements. We identified three sources of information FSIS used that contained certain limitations that were not disclosed in the cost-benefit analysis. First, in the 2012 proposed rule, FSIS did not disclose that it used a 2001 survey of plants’ costs of converting to the pilot projects to estimate certain costs for a plant that slaughters young chickens or turkeys to operate under the optional new poultry inspection system. According to USDA’s departmental regulation, the quality of the data used in cost- benefit analyses should be discussed in the proposed rule. However, our review of the proposed rule found the following limitations in the survey data that FSIS did not disclose: Estimated costs included in the January 2012 proposed rule were based on cost information gathered in 2001. FSIS officials told us that they did not attempt to obtain more recent information because it was challenging to collect this type of information from plants, which consider such information proprietary. FSIS officials stated that there has been little or no change in the cost information but did not provide any documentation to support this statement. FSIS generalized the results from the 12 young chicken plants that responded to the 2001 cost survey to the universe of 335 young chicken and young turkey plants in the United States in 2012 to estimate certain costs for poultry plants to operate under the optional new poultry inspection system. However, results obtained from the 12 young chicken plants that responded to the survey are not representative of the universe of young poultry plants. For the young turkey plants participating in the pilot project, FSIS did not obtain any cost data. According to FSIS officials, the agency did not attempt to obtain cost information from participating young turkey plants because, at the time of the 2001 survey, there were only two such plants. These officials further stated that the process to slaughter chickens is sufficiently similar to that for turkeys so costs can be generalized. However, these officials acknowledged there are differences between chickens and turkeys, such as carcass size, that can affect costs, including chilling costs. As a result of these limitations, the costs for a plant to convert to the optional new poultry inspection system in today’s economy may be unclear to the public, including stakeholders. Second, to estimate selected benefits of the proposed rule, FSIS assumed a single value for certain economic parameters, rather than following USDA’s departmental regulation and OMB’s Circular A-4 and using a sensitivity analysis to provide for a range of uncertainty in the results. For example, to estimate the expected annual cost savings to plants in the proposed rule, FSIS assumed that plants participating in the optional new poultry inspection system would increase their slaughter line speeds by an average of 6 percent. However, the agency noted in a footnote in the proposed rule that line speeds could potentially increase by up to 25 percent (from 140 carcasses per minute to 175 carcasses per minute) at young chicken plants or by up to 22 percent (from 45 carcasses per minute to 55 carcasses per minute) at turkey plants. These ranges in line speed are key parameters for estimating benefits to plants and would affect the labor costs of processing each carcass, as well as the number of carcasses processed and overall profits. Although FSIS noted a range in line speed exists, it did not use a sensitivity analysis to calculate a range of annual net benefits to plants resulting from uncertainties in line speed. As a result, the public, including stakeholders, did not have complete and accurate information to inform their comments on the proposed rule and provide them with a clearer understanding of the potential impacts of the final rule, including uncertainty behind selected estimates. According to USDA’s departmental regulation, uncertainty is inherent in a cost-benefit analysis, and the uncertainties that are important to regulatory decisions should be identified and presented as part of the overall regulatory analysis. According to FSIS officials, the only uncertainties that are important to this regulation are related to public health, and the agency included a range in its estimation of the public health benefits of the proposed rule. However, we believe that there are other uncertainties in the proposed rule that are important to the cost- benefit analysis, such as the expected benefit to industry from lifting the current restriction on line speed. Third, FSIS used a variety of economic studies to assess the economic conditions in the poultry industry under the proposed rule but did not identify certain limitations of these studies, including that data in at least one of the studies were more than 20 years old. Specifically, FSIS did not disclose that these studies may not reflect current market conditions. FSIS stated that it used the best available information when it drafted the proposed rule and cited the studies in footnotes throughout the proposed rule. However, FSIS did not identify how limitations in the studies could potentially affect the overall cost-benefit analysis. For example, FSIS stated in the proposed rule that it assumed the total labor-related cost to process a bird was 15 percent on the basis of a study published in 2000, but the agency did not disclose that the study was based on data from 1972 to 1992 for chickens and from 1967 to 1992 for turkeys. As another example, FSIS estimated the mark-up price of poultry to be 10 percent more than wholesale prices based on a study published in 2000, which was based on information on the price of poultry from 1996. As a result, the public, including stakeholders, may not know if the economic conditions in the poultry industry presented in the proposed rule accurately reflect current market conditions. According to FSIS officials, the agency plans to address some of the limitations in its revised cost-benefit analysis to support the final rule. For example, the agency plans to include a range for annual production cost savings in the revised cost-benefit analysis, which is part of the draft final rule. However, according to FSIS officials, the draft final rule is undergoing departmental review and was not made available to us, as it is subject to additional changes. It is unclear whether all of the limitations that we identified will be disclosed in the final rule. Moreover, to estimate the public health impact of the proposed rule, FSIS developed a risk assessment that contributes to its cost-benefit analysis. FSIS’ risk assessment model examined how pathogen levels in poultry products could be affected, depending on the frequency and scheduling of activities performed by FSIS inspectors positioned off the slaughter line. We were unable to determine if the results of FSIS’ risk assessment accurately stated the public health benefits in the proposed rule because the risk assessment did not include sufficient detail about its methodology. According to USDA’s departmental regulation and OMB Circular A-4, a good analysis is transparent, and a qualified third party reading the regulatory analysis should be able to see what data, methods, models, and assumptions were used to arrive at the agency’s estimates. However, in its risk assessment, FSIS did not disclose its rationale for numerous, complex key assumptions critical to the analyses it used to calculate public health benefits for the proposed rule. In addition, in the proposed rule, FSIS identified a range of 1,540 to 10,547 potential illnesses averted by increasing the number of unscheduled inspection activities off the slaughter line. However, this only covered 80 percent of the estimated range of potential illnesses averted, and it is unclear why Had a wider FSIS did not disclose a wider range of potential benefits.range been used, FSIS would have increased the statistical confidence of its estimate in the number of illnesses averted by increasing unscheduled activities off the slaughter line. FSIS officials acknowledged the importance of disclosing sufficient details about the methodology and stated that the risk assessment represents a snapshot in time; they also said that a revised risk assessment supporting the final rule—an assessment that is not yet available to the public—includes more of this critical information. The revised risk assessment is part of the draft final rule that is undergoing departmental review and was not made available to us. In an effort to deploy inspection resources more effectively in accordance with food safety and other consumer protection requirements, FSIS has been conducting pilot projects at slaughter plants for young chickens, young turkeys, and young hogs since 1998. These pilot projects are in keeping with FSIS’ broader effort to move toward a risk-based inspection system, which we believe is a positive step. However, we found that FSIS has not thoroughly evaluated how the three pilot projects have performed over time. Specifically, there are limitations in the agency’s data analyses in its report evaluating the pilot project at young chicken plants, and there is no report evaluating the pilot project at young turkey plants. Nonetheless, the agency moved forward with a proposed rule in January 2012 on modernizing poultry slaughter inspections that included an optional new poultry inspection system, based, in part, on its experience with the pilot projects at young chicken and young turkey plants. As a result, FSIS may not have assurance that its evaluation of the pilot project at young chicken plants provides the information necessary to support the proposed rule for both chickens and turkeys. However, the agency will not complete another evaluation before it issues a final rule. To support the proposed rule, the agency developed a cost-benefit analysis but did not disclose certain limitations in sources of information—including that data in at least one study was more than 20 years old—it relied on to develop this analysis, which is not consistent with USDA regulation and OMB Circular A-4 stating that a good analysis for rulemaking is transparent. As of July 2013, FSIS officials stated that the agency plans to address some of these limitations as it works to complete the final rule. Without complete disclosure from FSIS, the public, including stakeholders, did not have complete and accurate information to inform their comments on the proposed rule and provide them with a clearer understanding of the potential impacts of the final rule, including the uncertainty behind selected estimates. By addressing these limitations moving forward in its rulemaking for modernizing poultry slaughter inspections, FSIS can prepare for more transparency in the development of a future proposed rule to modify slaughter inspection for hogs based on the pilot project at young hog plants. In 2011, FSIS began drafting a preliminary report evaluating the pilot project at young hog plants, which uses analyses similar to those presented in the report evaluating the pilot project at young chicken plants, suggesting that similar limitations may apply. FSIS officials stated that the agency intends to complete its evaluation of the pilot project at young hog plants by March 31, 2014. They also stated that the agency would need to decide if additional data would be collected when it proceeded forward with a rulemaking effort for hogs. Without collecting and analyzing additional data, it will be difficult for FSIS to draw conclusions about whether the pilot project at young hog plants is meeting its purpose of deploying inspection resources more effectively in accordance with food safety and other consumer protection requirements. Because the pilot project at young hog plants is ongoing, FSIS has the opportunity to follow sound management practices by planning for and collecting key information needed to determine whether the pilot project is meeting its purpose. As we have previously reported, pilot programs can more effectively inform future program rollout when sound management practices are followed. We recommend that the Secretary of Agriculture direct the Administrator of the Food Safety and Inspection Service to take the following two actions: Clearly disclose to the public limitations in the information—including the cost-benefit analysis—the agency relied on for the rulemaking to modernize poultry slaughter inspections. As FSIS continues its evaluation of its pilot project for young hogs, collect and analyze the information necessary to determine whether the pilot project is meeting its purpose. We provided a draft of this report to USDA for its review and comment. USDA’s written comments and our detailed response to them are reproduced in appendix III. In its written comments, USDA concurred with both of our recommendations. More specifically, USDA concurred with our recommendation that it clearly disclose to the public limitations in the information—including the cost-benefit analysis—it relied on for the rulemaking to modernize poultry slaughter inspections. According to USDA, when it issues the final rule, it will present the updated analyses in a manner that will facilitate the public’s understanding of the information used to support its rulemaking. USDA also concurred with our recommendation to collect and analyze the information necessary to determine whether the pilot project for young hogs is meeting its purpose, while continuing its evaluation of this pilot project. According to USDA, it plans to complete such an evaluation by March 31, 2014, at which time it will determine whether a permanent program is warranted. USDA also made several general comments. For example, USDA commented that, throughout our report, we state that the purpose of the pilot projects was to “…deploy inspection resources more effectively…”. USDA further commented that, while this might have been true when the pilot projects were initiated in 1997, the agency’s thinking has evolved over the years to focus less on efficiencies and more on public health and food safety. We recognize that USDA’s descriptions of the pilot projects, as stated in the Federal Register notices, have evolved over the years. However, we believe that the purpose stated in our report—deploying inspection resources more effectively in accordance with food safety and other consumer protection requirements—remains valid because the Federal Register notices cited by USDA continue to mention effective use of resources as a component of its pilot projects. Moreover, agency officials directed us to the Federal Register notices because the agency could not provide us with documents defining the pilot projects’ purpose. As our report states, pilot programs can more effectively inform future program rollout when sound management practices are followed, including the development of an evaluation plan with well-defined, clear, and measurable objectives. Furthermore, USDA provided technical comments in its written response, which we have incorporated, as appropriate, in the report. As agreed with your office, unless you publicly announce the contents of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days from the report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report to the Secretary of Agriculture, the appropriate congressional committees, and other interested parties. In addition, the report will be available at no charge on the GAO website at http://www.gao.gov. If you or your staff members have any questions regarding this report, please contact me at (202) 512-3841 or gomezj@gao.gov. Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report. Key contributors to this report are listed in appendix IV. This report responds to your request that we review U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) pilot projects at slaughter plants for young chickens, young turkeys, and young hogs. Our objectives were to determine (1) the extent to which USDA has evaluated the three pilot projects, (2) strengths and weaknesses of the three pilot projects based on the views of key stakeholder groups, and (3) the extent to which USDA disclosed limitations, if any, in sources of information it relied on to develop the proposed rule to modernize poultry slaughter inspections. To determine the extent to which USDA has evaluated the three pilot projects, we reviewed relevant USDA documents, Federal Register notices, and laws. We also compared USDA’s efforts to evaluate the pilot projects with criteria based on social science and evaluation literature and published GAO guidance that were identified in our previous work on pilot program development and evaluation. Our previous work dealt with pilot projects at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Internal Revenue Service, and the Department of Defense where we identified key features of a well-developed evaluation plan that increases the likelihood that evaluations would yield methodologically sound results and support effective program and policy decisions. We believe that the key features identified in those reports are applicable to pilot projects, in general, including USDA’s three pilot projects. In addition, we interviewed several officials in various offices within USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service—the agency responsible for USDA’s meat and poultry inspection program. To determine the strengths and weaknesses of the three pilot projects based on the views of key stakeholder groups, we identified key stakeholder groups representing industry, labor (including plant personnel and USDA inspectors and veterinarians), consumer advocacy, and animal welfare that submitted comments on USDA’s proposed rule on modernizing poultry slaughter inspections. We identified 11 key stakeholder groups with sufficient knowledge about USDA’s pilot projects at young chicken, young turkey, and young hog plants to identify strengths and weaknesses for these pilot projects. These stakeholder groups were the American Federation of Government Employees/National Joint Council of Food Inspection Locals, the American Meat Institute, the Center for Foodborne Illness Research and Prevention, the Consumer Federation of America, Food and Water Watch, the Government Accountability Project, the Humane Society of the United States, the National Association of Federal Veterinarians, the National Chicken Council, the National Turkey Federation, and the North American Meat Association. We reviewed their comments to USDA’s proposed rule to determine the extent to which the comments may apply to the pilot projects; interviewed representatives of these key stakeholder groups; and followed up with e-mailed questions to gauge their level of familiarity with each pilot project and then clarified responses, as needed. Three of our analysts worked together to develop categories of strengths and weaknesses identified most frequently by stakeholder groups, and two analysts independently determined whether each stakeholder group had identified strengths or weaknesses that fit into these categories. Any discrepancies in coding were discussed, and agreement was reached between the analysts, or resolved through a third analyst’s review. We also visited 10 slaughter plants for young chickens, young turkeys, and young hogs to learn about the variations in slaughter inspection systems between plants participating and not participating in the pilot projects. In selecting these plants, we chose plants in states that are the top producers of young chickens, young turkeys, and young hogs and that have at least one plant that is participating in a pilot project and at least one plant that is not participating in a pilot project for one of those species. On the basis of these selection criteria, we visited plants in Georgia for young chickens, Indiana for young turkeys, and Minnesota for young hogs. For each species, we visited at least one plant participating and one plant not participating in the pilot projects. We interviewed plant management and USDA veterinarians and inspectors working at these plants, and we toured the plants. To determine the extent to which USDA disclosed limitations, if any, in sources of information it relied on to develop the proposed rule, we reviewed the proposed rule and related Federal Register notices, as well as selected documents the agency relied on to develop the proposed rule. We also reviewed relevant guidance such as the Office of Management and Budget Circular A-4, which provides guidance to federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis, and the USDA departmental regulation that details the process for developing regulations. We also interviewed several officials in various offices within USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service to clarify information, as needed. We conducted this performance audit from September 2012 to August 2013 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence presented provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. As of July 2013, 29 plants were participating in the pilot projects in 18 states. More specifically, there were 19 participating young chicken plants located in 10 states. These 10 states accounted for almost 66 percent of the more than 49.3 billion pounds of young chickens slaughtered in 2012. (See fig. 2.) In terms of the pilot project at young turkey plants, four of the five young turkey plants in the pilot project were located in states that accounted for about 33 percent of the more than 7.4 billion pounds of young turkeys slaughtered in 2012; one young turkey plant was located in Michigan—a state with a lower volume of young turkeys slaughtered—and data were not available on the volume of young turkeys slaughtered in this state. (See fig. 3.) In terms of the pilot project at young hog plants, the five hog plants in the pilot project were located in five states that accounted for about 30 percent of the more than 31 billion pounds of hogs slaughtered in 2012.(See fig. 4.) The following are GAO’s comments on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s letter dated August 15, 2013. 1. USDA commented that our report does not highlight what the agency considers to be the main objectives of the proposed rule to modernize poultry slaughter inspections—to reduce the risk of foodborne illnesses by focusing FSIS inspection activities on those tasks that advance the agency’s core mission of food safety. However, our report includes this information. For example, our report states, “according to the proposed rule, the modernization is intended to improve food safety and the effectiveness of poultry slaughter inspection systems, remove unnecessary regulatory obstacles to innovation, and make better use of the agency’s resources,” among other things. 2. USDA commented that throughout our report we state that the purpose of the pilot projects was to “…deploy inspection resources more effectively…”. USDA further commented that, while this might have been true when the pilot projects were initiated in 1997, the agency’s thinking has evolved over the years to focus less on efficiencies and more on public health and food safety. We recognize that USDA’s descriptions of the pilot projects, as stated in the Federal Register notices, have evolved over the years. However, we believe that the purpose stated in our report—deploying inspection resources more effectively in accordance with food safety and other consumer protection requirements—remains valid because the Federal Register notices cited by USDA continue to mention the effective use of resources as a component of its pilot projects. Moreover, agency officials directed us to Federal Register notices because USDA could not provide us with documents defining the pilot projects’ purpose. As our report states, pilot programs can more effectively inform future program rollout when sound management practices are followed, including the development of an evaluation plan with well-defined, clear, and measurable objectives. 3. USDA commented that we did not mention the validity of the agency’s approach for comparing food safety data. We modified our report to include this information. USDA also commented that we did not include a number of conclusions from a 2002 external review, which focused on the validity of using food safety, microbial, and other consumer protection (food quality) data to assess the accomplishments of young chicken plants participating in and those not participating in the pilot project. Our report acknowledges this external review, but looking at the validity of the performance measures the agency developed for the pilot project was beyond the scope of our review. 4. We modified our report to clarify the footnote about the food safety performance standard. 5. We modified our report to clarify the description of how the data from young turkey plants were used in USDA’s risk assessment. 6. We modified our report to clarify USDA’s perspective on training and that this training discussion is specific to those plants participating in the pilot projects. 7. We modified our report to include a statement about USDA inspectors’ abilities to cite plants for noncompliance at plants not participating in the pilot project. 8. USDA commented that our discussion of line speed is misleading because, among other things, it implies that a higher line speed than the average used in the analysis would lead to additional costs of processing. We recognize that higher line speeds lead to lower per unit labor costs and have not made statements to the contrary. However, we note that USDA did not incorporate the impact of a range in line speeds in its estimates of benefits to plants. These ranges in line speed are key parameters for estimating benefits to plants and would affect the labor costs of processing each carcass, as well as the number of carcasses processed and overall profits. We modified our report to clarify that although FSIS noted a range in line speed exists, it did not use a sensitivity analysis to calculate a range of annual net benefits to plants resulting from uncertainties in line speed. 9. USDA commented that our statement about how the agency plans to address some of the limitations in the cost-benefit analysis is not completely accurate. We modified our report to state that the agency plans to include a range for annual production cost savings in the revised cost-benefit analysis, which is part of the draft final rule. However, USDA also stated that the final rule will not provide a range of benefits to plants based on uncertainties in line speed. As explained above in comment 8, we believe line speed is a key parameter in the estimation of benefits to plants. J. Alfredo Gómez, (202) 512-3841 or gomezj@gao.gov. In addition to the contact named above, Mary Denigan-Macauley (Assistant Director), Marie Bancroft, Kevin Bray, Stephen Carter, Barbara El Osta, Michele Fejfar, Diana C. Goody, Armetha Liles, Cynthia Norris, and Dae Park made key contributions to this report.

Summary: USDA inspectors provide continuous inspection of each meat and poultry carcass and its parts that enter interstate commerce. In 1998, USDA began three pilot projects at slaughter plants for healthy young chickens, young turkeys, and young hogs, with a purpose to deploy inspection resources more effectively in accordance with food safety and other consumer protection requirements. Under the pilot projects, plant personnel sort carcasses before USDA's inspection. The pilot projects are to end when a final rule for each species is published. In January 2012, USDA published a proposed rule to modernize poultry slaughter inspections based, in part, on its pilot projects. GAO was asked to review these pilot projects. This report determines (1) the extent to which USDA has evaluated the three pilot projects, (2) strengths and weaknesses of the pilot projects based on the views of key stakeholder groups, and (3) the extent to which USDA disclosed limitations, if any, in sources of information it relied on to develop the proposed rule. GAO reviewed relevant laws and documents and interviewed USDA officials and 11 key industry, labor, consumer advocacy, and animal welfare groups familiar with the pilot projects. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has not thoroughly evaluated the performance of each of the pilot projects over time even though the agency stated it would do so when it announced the pilot projects. For example, in 2011, USDA completed a report evaluating the pilot project at 20 young chicken plants concluding that an inspection system based on the pilot project would ensure equivalent, if not better, levels of food safety and quality than currently provided at plants not in the pilot project. However, among the limitations of its evaluation was the use of snapshots of data for two 2-year periods instead of data for the duration of the pilot project, which has been ongoing for more than a decade. In addition, USDA did not complete an evaluation on or prepare a report evaluating the pilot project at 5 young turkey plants and has no plans to do so because of the small sample size. Nevertheless, in publishing a proposed rule that includes an optional new poultry (chicken and turkey) inspection system, USDA stated that the new system was based on its experience with the pilot projects at young chicken and young turkey plants. As a result, USDA may not have assurance that its evaluation of the pilot project at young chicken plants provides the information necessary to support the proposed rule for both chickens and turkeys. However, the agency will not complete another evaluation before it issues a final rule. USDA has begun drafting a preliminary report evaluating the pilot project at young hog plants using analyses similar to those presented in the report evaluating young chicken plants, suggesting that similar limitations may apply. Agency officials stated that when USDA develops a proposed rulemaking to modify its slaughter inspection system for hogs, the agency will need to decide whether to collect additional data. Without collecting and analyzing additional data, it will be difficult for USDA to draw conclusions about whether the pilot project at young hog plants is meeting its purpose. While the pilot project is ongoing, USDA has the opportunity to collect and analyze additional information. GAO identified strengths and weaknesses of the three pilot projects based on the views cited most frequently by 11 key stakeholder groups representing industry, labor, consumer advocacy, and animal welfare. On the basis of these views, GAO identified strengths including giving plants responsibility and flexibility for ensuring food safety and quality and allowing USDA inspectors to focus more on food safety activities. GAO identified weaknesses including that training of plant personnel assuming sorting responsibilities on the slaughter line is not required or standardized and that faster line speeds allowed under the pilot projects raise concerns about food safety and worker safety. USDA did not disclose certain limitations in sources of information it relied on to develop the cost-benefit analysis supporting the proposed rule on modernizing poultry slaughter inspections. GAO identified three sources of information with certain limitations that were not disclosed. For example, USDA did not disclose that it gathered no cost information from young turkey plants in the pilot project. Furthermore, USDA generalized the results from 12 young chicken plants in the pilot project that responded to a 2001 cost survey to the universe of 335 young chicken and young turkey plants in the United States in 2012. As a result, stakeholders did not have complete and accurate information to inform their comments on the proposed rule and its potential impacts. GAO recommends that USDA (1) collect and analyze information to determine if the young hog pilot project is meeting its purpose and (2) clearly disclose to the public limitations in the information it relied on for the proposed rule to modernize poultry slaughter inspections. USDA concurred with GAO's recommendations.