Active-duty military personnel are not covered by Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, as amended, or the implementing governmentwide equal employment opportunity and affirmative action regulations and guidelines of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. However, the Secretary of Defense has established a separate equal opportunity program with similar requirements for these personnel. In 1969, the Secretary of Defense issued a Human Goals Charter that remains the basis for DOD’s equal opportunity program. It states that DOD is to strive to provide everyone in the military the opportunity to rise to as high a level of responsibility as possible based only on individual talent and diligence. The charter also states that DOD should strive to ensure that equal opportunity programs are an integral part of readiness and to make the military a model of equal opportunity for all, regardless of race, color, sex, religion, or national origin. To help ensure equal opportunity in the services, a 1988 DOD directive and related instruction require that the services prepare annual MEOAs. In preparing their MEOAs, the services collect, assess, and report racial and gender data in 10 categories. The Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Equal Opportunity (DASD(EO)) is primarily responsible for monitoring the services’ equal opportunity programs, including preparing written analyses of the services’ MEOAs and a DOD summary. As recently as March 1994, the Secretary of Defense reaffirmed DOD’s equal opportunity goals, stating that equal opportunity is a military and an economic necessity. While noting that DOD has been a leader in equal opportunity, the Secretary stated that it can and should do better. He initiated several measures, including a major DOD study looking at ways to improve the flow of minorities and women into the officer ranks from recruitment through high-level promotions. According to DASD(EO)’s Director of Military Equal Opportunity, MEOAs are the primary source of information for monitoring the services’ equal opportunity programs. While MEOAs provide some useful information, the analyses of this information did not consistently identify and assess the significance of possible racial or gender disparities. In addition, data for 9 of the 10 MEOA reporting categories was reported inconsistently among the services. For the promotion and separation categories, some key data that would be helpful in understanding the progression of minorities and women through the ranks was not required to be reported. In analyzing the outcomes of an organization’s personnel actions for possible racial or gender disparities, Equal Employment Opportunity Commission guidance recommends using the racial and gender composition of the eligible pool as a basis for comparison. All other things being equal, the racial and gender makeup of persons selected for a particular action should—over time—reflect the racial and gender composition of the eligible pool. In other words, the likelihood or odds of a particular outcome occurring for a minority group should be about the same as for the majority or dominant group in the long run. When the actual odds are less and the difference is statistically significant, and patterns or trends are identified, further analysis would be necessary to determine the cause(s) of the disparity. Seven of the 10 MEOA reporting categories lend themselves to comparing the odds of a minority group member being selected to the odds of a dominant group member being selected. However, the DOD directive and the related instruction do not require such an analysis, and none was done by the services. The services did make some comparisons to the group average; that is, they compared a minority group selection rate to the overall selection rate for all groups (minority and majority). But because the minority group was usually so small compared to the total group, disparities in the minority group selection rate compared to the overall group rate often were not detected or appeared insignificant. Also, this approach is not helpful in identifying trends or patterns. Statistical significance testing can provide a basis to determine if a disparity in the odds of being selected for a minority group compared to the odds of the majority group is due to random chance. Statistical significance testing, over time, can also assist in identifying trends or patterns in equal opportunity data that may warrant further analysis. In the fiscal year 1993 MEOAs (the latest available), only the Army routinely reported statistical significance testing results. The Marine Corps and the Navy reported some statistical significance testing. The Air Force did not report any statistical significance testing. While the DOD instruction on preparing MEOAs encourages the use of statistical significance testing, its use is not required, and instructions on how to conduct such tests are not provided. All four of the officials responsible for preparing the MEOAs for their respective service said they did not have prior experience in analyzing equal opportunity data and that DOD’s instruction was not particularly helpful. In analyzing the services’ 1993 MEOAs, we found that the MEOA reporting requirements were addressed differently by one or more of the services in 9 of the 10 categories. Only the promotion category appeared to be consistently reported. In most instances, definitions and interpretations of what is called for were not consistent among the services. In some cases, one or more of the services did not comply with the DOD instruction. Following are examples of some of the inconsistencies we found: The Army specifically reported accessions for its professional branches, such as legal, chaplain, and medical. The other services did not. The Air Force, the Army, and the Navy reported on officers who had been separated involuntarily. But the Army did not separately report officers who had been separated under other than honorable conditions or for bad conduct. The Marine Corps did not report any separation data for officers. The Air Force, the Army, and the Navy provided enlisted and officer assignment data by race and gender. The Marine Corps combined into one figure its data on selections to career-enhancing assignments for its O-2 through O-6 officers for each racial and gender category and did not provide any information on its enlisted members. The Air Force, the Marine Corps, and the Navy reported discrimination or sexual harassment complaints by race and gender. The Army did not identify complainants by race and gender. The Army reported utilization of skills data by each racial category and for women. The Air Force reported skills data for blacks, Hispanics, and women. The Marine Corps and the Navy combined the racial categories into one figure for each skill reported and did not report on women. The Air Force and the Army included officers in their reports on discipline. The Marine Corps and the Navy did not. Two important factors in analyzing the progression of minorities and women in the services are how competitive they are for promotions and whether they are leaving the services at disproportionate rates. These factors have been of concern in the officer ranks. In March 1994, the Secretary of Defense directed that a study of the officer “pipeline” be conducted. This study is still underway but is addressing ways to improve the flow of minorities and women through the officer ranks. Although DOD’s MEOA guidance requires reporting on promotions and separations, it does not require the services to report racial and gender data for all promotions or voluntary separations. The guidance requires the services to report racial and gender data in their MEOAs for promotions that result from a centralized servicewide selection process. For enlisted members, this includes promotions to E-7, E-8, and E-9; for officers, this includes promotions to O-4, O-5, and O-6. For the most part, promotions at the lower ranks are not routinely assessed. In addition, the MEOA data for officers in each of the services and enlisted members in the Marine Corps is limited to those promotions that occurred “in the zone.” We noted that about 900, or about 8 percent, of the services’ officer promotions and about 500, or about 19 percent, of Marine Corps enlisted promotions in fiscal year 1993 were not reported and were from either below or above the zone. Without routinely assessing promotions in the lower ranks and in each of the promotion zones for possible racial or gender disparities, the services’ ability to identify areas warranting further analysis is limited. The services are also required to report in their MEOAs racial and gender data on involuntary separations, such as for reduction in force or medical reasons, but are not required to report on the great majority of separations that are for voluntary reasons. In fiscal year 1993, about 163,500 enlisted members and about 16,400 officers voluntarily left the services for reasons other than retirement. Analyzing this data for racial or gender disparities could increase the services’ understanding of who is leaving the services and help focus their efforts in determining why. DASD(EO) and his predecessors have not provided the services with analyses of their MEOAs and have prepared a DOD summary only on 1990 data, even though both have been required annually since fiscal year 1988. Although one Marine Corps official recalled receiving the summary, she said that it was not helpful or constructive. In addition, some of the service officials responsible for their service’s MEOAs said the assessments were done primarily to satisfy the DOD requirement. They noted that, except for the promotion category, MEOAs generally received little attention outside the services’ equal opportunity offices. Although DASD(EO) acknowledges these problems, they continue. The DOD instruction calls for the services to submit their MEOAs for the prior fiscal year by February 1 each year and for DASD(EO) to complete its analyses within 90 days. The 1993 MEOAs were not all received by DASD(EO) until May 1994. As of the end of June 1995, DASD(EO) had not provided its 1993 MEOA analyses to the services, and the 1994 MEOAs have not been completed by all the services. To identify possible disparities, we analyzed three MEOA categories—accessions, assignments, and promotions—for fiscal years 1989 through 1993. We compared each minority group—American Indian, Asian, black, and Hispanic—to the dominant white group and compared females to males. The analytical approach we used is one of several methods for analyzing and identifying trends in equal opportunity data. It compares the odds of selection from a particular racial or gender group to the odds of selection from the dominant group for a particular outcome. Used as a managerial tool, this methodology is especially well suited to analyzing various outcomes for racial and gender groups of very different sizes and selection rates. Appendix I contains a more detailed explanation of our methodology, including our rationale for using this approach rather than alternative approaches. Our analysis showed some racial or gender disparities, although the number of disparities varied considerably among the MEOA categories, across the services, and by race and gender. Appendix II presents our detailed results. Conclusions about DOD’s personnel management practices cannot be based solely on the existence of statistically significant disparities. Further analysis would be necessary to determine why the disparities occurred. Certain job criteria or selection procedures may have an adverse impact on one or more groups, but if the criteria or procedure can be shown to accurately measure required job skills, the impact could be warranted. Additionally, a group’s social characteristics may lead to disparities; for example, a group’s low interest or propensity to serve in the military could help explain its lower odds of entering the services. MEOAs did not report information on the eligible pools for accessions. At the suggestion of the DOD Office of Accession Policy, we used certain data from the Defense Manpower Data Center for the eligible pools. For enlisted accessions, we used the gender and racial makeup of persons who had taken the Armed Forces Qualification Test. This meant the individual had expressed interest in the military and had made the time and effort to take the initial tests for entrance into the services. Because comparable eligible pool data for officers was not available, the DOD Office of Accession Policy suggested we use civilian labor force data for college graduates between 21 and 35 years old as the eligible pool. This data provides a comparison to the overall racial and gender composition of this portion of the U.S. population but does not account for an individual’s interest or propensity to serve in the military, which may vary by race and gender. Using these eligible pools, we found statistically significant racial and gender disparities that may warrant further analysis. For example, in all the services, Asians had statistically significant lower odds of entering as either an enlisted member or officer in nearly all the years examined; the odds of blacks and Hispanics entering the Air Force as either an enlisted member or officer were statistically significantly lower than whites in most of the years we examined; and in the Army, Hispanics had statistically significantly lower odds than whites of entering the officer corps. For the eligible pool for career-enhancing assignments, we used the numbers of enlisted members and officers eligible for such assignments reported in each of the services’ MEOAs. In the three services we examined, we found that the odds of enlisted and officer minorities being selected for these assignments were not statistically significantly different from whites in most instances. An exception, however, was Asian officers in the Navy. As a group, they had statistically significant lower odds than whites of being selected for most assignments. In addition, the odds of Air Force and Navy women officers being selected for many of the assignments in the years we examined were statistically significantly lower than the odds of selection for their male counterparts. Like assignments, we used the eligible pool data for promotions reported in the services’ MEOAs. In about 37 percent of the enlisted (E-7, E-8, and E-9) and officer (O-4, O-5, and O-6) promotion boards we examined, one or more minority groups had statistically significant lower odds of being promoted than whites. We found statistically significant lower odds of minorities being promoted compared to whites most often (1) for blacks, (2) at the E-7 and O-4 levels, and (3) in the Air Force. On the other hand, the odds of females being promoted were not statistically significantly different or were greater than the odds for males in nearly all the enlisted and officer boards we examined. To help make the services’ MEOAs more useful in monitoring the services’ equal opportunity programs, we recommend that the Secretary of Defense direct DASD(EO) to do the following: Devise methodologies for analyzing MEOA data that would more readily identify possible racial and gender disparities than current methods permit and establish criteria for determining when disparities warrant more in-depth analyses. The Secretary may wish to consider the methodology we used in this report, but other methods are available and may suit the purposes of MEOAs. Ensure that the services (1) use comparable definitions and interpretations in addressing the MEOA categories and (2) provide complete information for each of the MEOA categories. Prepare the analyses of the services’ annual MEOAs and the DOD summary, as required. In commenting on a draft of this report, DOD concurred with the report and stated that it has already initiated several efforts to make the recommended improvements. DOD’s comments are reproduced in appendix III. To evaluate whether MEOAs provided DASD(EO) with sufficient information to effectively monitor the services’ equal opportunity programs, we reviewed the services’ MEOAs for fiscal years 1989 through 1993. In addition, we analyzed the services’ fiscal year 1993 MEOA—the latest available at the time of our review—for reporting completeness and consistency. We reviewed the DOD directive and instruction governing the military’s equal opportunity program. We discussed preparation of MEOAs with cognizant officials in the services and DASD(EO)’s Office of Military Equal Opportunity. To determine whether possible racial or gender disparities in selection rates existed, we analyzed military accessions, assignments, and promotions for active-duty enlisted members and officers. We chose to analyze these categories because relatively large numbers of servicemembers were involved and, for the most part, the necessary data was readily available. For accessions, we used data from the Defense Manpower Data Center. For assignments and promotions, we used data from the services’ MEOAs. We did not independently verify the accuracy of the data. We performed our review from January 1994 to April 1995 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. We are sending copies of this report to the Chairmen and Ranking Minority Members of the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Senate and House Committees on Appropriations; the Chairman, House Committee on National Security; the Secretaries of Defense, the Air Force, the Army, and the Navy; and the Commandant of the Marine Corps. Copies will also be made available to others upon request. Please contact me at (202) 512-5140 if you or your staff have any questions concerning this report. Major contributors to this report are listed in appendix IV. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has established policies and procedures for federal agencies to collect and analyze data on civilian personnel actions such as hiring, assignments, and promotions to determine whether selection procedures adversely affect any race, sex, or ethnic group. Although these policies and procedures do not apply to active-duty military personnel, the Department of Defense (DOD) directive and instruction related to its military equal opportunity program set forth similar requirements. We chose not to use the “four-fifths” rule described in the Commission’s guidance for determining whether adverse impact may have occurred. As pointed out by the Commission, the four-fifths rule is a “rule of thumb” and has limitations. For example, when the relevant groups are very large—as in the military—differences in the ratio of the two selection rates greater than four-fifths may be statistically significant; that is, areas of possible adverse impact may not be detected if just the four-fifths rule is used. Therefore, to determine whether possible racial or gender disparities existed in the military services’ personnel actions that we examined, we used an “odds ratio” methodology. This methodology is especially well suited to analyzing various outcomes for racial and gender groups of very different sizes and selection rates. Use of this methodology also enabled us to do analyses that are more sensitive to changes in the relative numbers of women and minorities than the more traditional method, which compares selection rates (the number selected divided by the total number eligible). The odds of a particular group member being selected for an outcome is determined by dividing the number of individuals selected by the number not selected. An “odds ratio” is the odds of one group member being selected divided by the odds of another group member being selected for that same outcome. If the odds of being selected for both group members are equal, the ratio will be one. When the ratio is not equal to one, the methodology allows us to determine whether the difference is statistically significant, that is, whether it is likely due to random chance or not. For purposes of this report, we use the term statistically significant to denote those instances where the likelihood of the outcome having occurred randomly is less than 5 percent. The odds ratio methodology is relatively straightforward but can involve a large number of calculations and comparisons. If we had calculated odds ratios for each racial and gender group for each personnel action outcome in the three Military Equal Opportunity Assessment (MEOA) categories we examined—accessions, career-enhancing assignments, and promotions—almost 3,000 odds ratios would have been needed. Instead of performing all these calculations, we used “modeling” techniques to determine how race and gender affected the reported outcomes for the three sets of data. Once we understood the effect race and gender had on the outcomes, we had to calculate and analyze only the odds ratios that significantly affected the actual outcomes. For each personnel action, we considered five different models, as follows: Model one assumed that race and gender had no effect on the outcome of accessions, assignments, or promotions. Model two assumed that only gender had an effect—that is, all racial groups would have equal odds of being selected for the outcome, but males and females would not. Model three assumed just the opposite—males and females would have equal odds of being selected, but the racial groups would not. Model four assumed that both race and gender affect the odds of selection independently of one another. In other words, the odds ratios indicating the difference between males and females in one racial group would be the same as the corresponding ratios in the other groups. Model five assumed that both race and gender had an effect and that the two factors operated jointly. That is, the odds ratios describing racial differences varied by gender, and the odds ratios describing gender differences varied by racial group. Determining which model to use required two steps. First, using statistical software, we created a hypothetical database for each model essentially identical to the actual data but modified to reflect the assumptions we made. For example, the hypothetical database created for the third model assumed that the odds of males and females being selected would be equal (that is, the odds ratio would be 1.0). Second, the hypothetical odds ratios were compared to the actual odds ratios for each of the personnel actions. If there were significant differences, we rejected the model’s assumptions. In virtually all instances, model four was the most appropriate and preferred way to present the results. Its overall results were not significantly improved upon by any of the other models. This meant that for the personnel actions we analyzed, we only needed to calculate the odds ratios for each racial and gender group compared to whites and males, respectively (see app. II). We did not have to calculate the odds ratios for males and females within each racial group because, according to the model, the gender difference was the same across racial groups. This appendix presents the odds ratios we calculated for each of the three MEOA categories we examined—accessions, assignments, and promotions. Some ratios are much less than 1 (less than three one-thousandths, for example) or much greater (over 16,000, for example). Such extremes occurred when the percentage of persons selected from a small-sized group was proportionately very low or very high compared to the percentage selected from the dominant group. Our tests of statistical significance, however, took group size into account. Therefore, although many odds ratios were less than one (some much less), the disparity was not necessarily statistically significant. In the tables in this appendix, we have shaded the odds ratios that indicate possible adverse impact; that is, the ratios are less than one and statistically significant. A more in-depth analysis would be warranted to determine the cause(s) of these disparities. As discussed in appendix I, we compared the odds for females with those for males and the odds of minority racial groups with those for whites. To help the reader remember the relationships in our tables, we have labeled the top of each column listing odds ratios with the gender or racial group and symbols of what the proper comparison is. For example, F:M means the ratio compares the odds of females to males and B:W means the ratio compares the odds of blacks to whites for the particular outcome being analyzed. The odds ratios can also be used to make certain comparisons within and among the services and identify trends whether they are statistically significant or not. If the objective, for example, is to increase the representation of a particular minority group vis-a-vis whites, the odds ratio should be greater than one. When it is not, it means whites are being selected in proportionately greater numbers than the minority group. Tables II.1 and II.2 present the odds ratios for enlisted and officer accessions, respectively. We compared gender and racial data for those entering the military to the gender and racial composition of selected eligible pools. In determining what to use for the eligible pool, we conferred with officials in DOD’s Office of Accession Policy. For the enlisted member eligible pool, we used those men and women who had taken the Armed Forces Qualification Test and scored in the top three mental categories during the respective fiscal year. These were generally high school graduates who had been initially screened by the recruiter for certain disqualifying factors such as a criminal record or obvious physical disabilities. Using test takers as the eligible pool also took into account the propensity to serve in the military, since the men and women taking the test had to make the time and effort to do so. Moreover, this data was readily available from the Defense Manpower Data Center. For officers, determining a relevant eligible pool was not as precise. Officers primarily come from Reserve Officers’ Training Corps programs, officer candidate schools, and the military academies, but no information was reported on the racial and gender makeup of the programs’ applicants in the services’ MEOAs, nor was it available from the Defense Manpower Data Center. At the suggestion of DOD’s Office of Accession Policy, we used national civilian labor force gender and racial statistics for college graduates 21 to 35 years old as the eligible pool. This data was readily available from the Defense Manpower Data Center, and nearly all officers have college bachelor’s degrees and are in this age group when they enter the service. We could not account for an individual’s propensity or desire to serve as a military officer using civilian labor force data. While our analyses highlight those racial groups that entered the services’ officer corps at lower rates or odds compared to whites based on their representation in the civilian labor force, further analyses would be necessary to determine why this occurred. In both tables we present the odds ratios for females compared to males. In each of the 5 years we reviewed and across the services, the odds of women entering the services were statistically significantly lower than for men. This fact is not surprising considering that women’s roles in the military are limited and they may, as a group, have less interest or propensity to serve in the military than men. Even in recent years when the restrictions have been loosened, the services have not reported accessing more than about 14 percent of women for the enlisted ranks and about 19 percent for the officer ranks, compared to over 50 percent representation in the civilian labor force. Nevertheless, we present the data to illustrate the disparities among the services. For example, in fiscal year 1993, the odds of women in our eligible pool entering the Marine Corps as officers were less than one-tenth the odds for men. In contrast, for the same year, the odds of women entering the Air Force as officers were about one-third the odds for men. Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. Tables II.3 through II.6 present the odds ratios for enlisted and officer career-enhancing assignments as identified by the services in their respective MEOAs. For the gender and racial makeup of the eligible pools and of who was selected, we used data reported in the MEOAs. As previously noted, the Marine Corps data for officer assignments is an accumulation of all its officers in the ranks O-2 through O-6. Although we calculated the odds ratios for this data and they are presented in table II.5, more detailed analysis by more specific assignments may be appropriate before any conclusions are drawn. In addition, the Marine Corps did not report any assignment data for its enlisted personnel. For several of the assignments, the MEOA data was insufficient for our analysis; these instances are indicated as “no data.” In others, no minority candidates were in the eligible pool, and these instances are indicated as “none” in the appropriate odds ratio column. Finally, in the Navy, combat exclusion laws prohibit women from serving aboard submarines, and this is so noted in the chief of the boat assignment for E-9s. Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. (Continued on next page.) Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. (Continued on next page.) Table II.5: Odds Ratios for Marine Corps Officer Career-Enhancing Assignments, Fiscal Years 1989-93 American Indians AI:W Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. (Continued on next page.) American Indians AI:W Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. Tables II.7 and II.8 present the odds ratios for enlisted and officer promotion boards, respectively, for each of the services. For the gender and racial makeup of the eligible pools and of who was selected, we used data reported in the MEOAs. In several instances, no promotion boards were held, or data was not reported in the service’s MEOA for a particular rank, service, and year; these are noted as appropriate. In other instances, no minority group candidates were in the eligible pool for promotion to a particular rank; we have indicated these as “none” in the appropriate ratio column. Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. (Continued on next page.) Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. (Continued on next page.) Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. Table II.8: Odds Ratios for the Services’ Officer Promotion Boards, Fiscal Years 1989-93 American Indians AI:W Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. (Continued on next page.) Shaded areas indicate ratios that are less than one and statistically significant. (Continued on next page.) Douglas M. Sloane, Social Science Analyst The first copy of each GAO report and testimony is free. Additional copies are $2 each. 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Summary: Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the services' Military Equal Opportunity Assessments (MEOA) to determine whether certain active-duty personnel data reflect racial and gender disparities within the services. GAO found that: (1) MEOA do not consistently identify and assess the significance of possible racial and gender disparities within the services; (2) MEOA categories are reported differently by each service, since the services are not required to report data on low rank promotions and voluntary separations; (3) the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Equal Opportunity (DASD EO) has not analyzed the services' MEOA or Department of Defense (DOD) summaries for fiscal year 1993; (4) there are significant statistical disparities in the number of minorities considered for accessioning, career enhancement, and promotion; and (5) some of these disparities can be attributed to job-related and societal factors.